All-In PodcastTrump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Jason Calacanis and Brad Gerstner on trump’s Gaza Deal, Guarded Cities, AI Booms, and Gold Surges.
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya, Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally explores trump’s Gaza Deal, Guarded Cities, AI Booms, and Gold Surges The episode covers President Trump’s proposed Gaza ceasefire and broader ‘moonshot’ foreign policy, the controversial deployment of National Guard troops to support ICE in Chicago and potentially Portland, and a fierce debate over crime, immigration enforcement, and federal vs. state power.
At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Trump’s Gaza Deal, Guarded Cities, AI Booms, and Gold Surges
- The episode covers President Trump’s proposed Gaza ceasefire and broader ‘moonshot’ foreign policy, the controversial deployment of National Guard troops to support ICE in Chicago and potentially Portland, and a fierce debate over crime, immigration enforcement, and federal vs. state power.
- The besties then dissect OpenAI’s massive GPU deal with AMD, the economics of AI compute, power constraints, and whether equity-for-capacity structures constitute risky “round-tripping” or just modern vendor finance.
- They explore the explosive rally in gold, driven by new forms of demand (notably Tether and central banks like China’s) and geopolitical shifts away from the dollar, and finish with the institutionalization of prediction markets via Polymarket’s big ICE investment.
- Throughout, they frame AI and capital markets as central to American strength, while warning that regulatory or political overreach—from policing to AI rules to dollar weaponization—could squander current advantages.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
7 ideasTrump’s Gaza ceasefire is framed as a genuine diplomatic breakthrough built on pressure to both sides.
Sacks highlights that the tentative multi-phase Trump peace plan includes a ceasefire, unrestricted aid into Gaza, full Israeli hostage release, 2,000 Palestinian prisoners freed, and Israeli troop withdrawals. He cites veteran diplomat Aaron David Miller arguing Trump acted as a rare ‘honest broker’ by pressuring Netanyahu and threatening Hamas, earning even skeptical commentators’ praise and fueling talk of a potential Nobel Peace Prize if multiple conflicts are resolved.
Regional stability is seen as economically essential for Mideast states racing to monetize oil and diversify.
Chamath argues oil is a rapidly depreciating asset: if it stays in the ground while alternatives like nuclear, gas, and solar scale, it loses value. Peace allows countries to monetize reserves now and reinvest into tourism, sports, AI, PE/VC, new cities, and renewables. The besties praise Jared Kushner’s role, positioning the region as a long-term economic pillar if conflicts remain contained.
There’s a sharp divide between “law and order” gains and the perceived brutality and overreach of ICE and Guard deployments.
Sacks defends National Guard support for ICE as limited, lawful, and historically precedented (Eisenhower/JFK in the South), blaming ANTIFA and left-wing NGOs for violence in Chicago/Portland. JCal accepts deportations and border security but condemns masked raids, family separations, and ‘authoritarian’ optics as both morally wrong and politically disastrous, arguing moderates liked Trump 2.0 (border control, pro-business, anti-war, deregulation) but recoil from 1.0 chaos and cruelty.
OpenAI’s AMD deal is a ‘bet-the-farm’ move by AMD to claw into NVIDIA’s AI dominance.
Brad breaks down that AMD will grant OpenAI warrants for up to ~10% of AMD in exchange for a potential $60B+ GPU purchase commitment (6 GW of next-gen MI450). NVIDIA has captured almost all incremental AI data center revenue since 2022; AMD’s prior MI350 was not competitive. Lisa Su is effectively wagering a big chunk of the company on MI450 matching or beating NVIDIA’s Rubin-era platforms on performance-per-watt and ecosystem support.
AI’s true bottlenecks are shifting from chips to energy and critical components like HBM memory.
Chamath likens control over key inputs to Rothschild controlling the money supply: whoever controls electrons (power), and constrained components (e.g., SK hynix/Samsung’s HBM) will control AI’s growth. He notes OpenAI’s Korea deal as likely forward-buying HBM allocation, allowing Sam Altman to “allocate allocation” in exchange for equity-style ‘taxes’. The panel expects data centers to scale into multi‑GW facilities costing ~$50B per GW, with trillions in capex and even more in long-lived opex.
Round-tripping fears in AI (equity for GPU spend) hinge on economic substance, not structure.
Chamath notes similar vendor-finance and forward-flow structures are standard in autos and other sectors; he trusts auditors and the PCAOB to flag abuse. Brad draws a line between sham transactions (no real end demand) and today’s AI deals, arguing NVIDIA’s small equity checks vs. massive cash flows, and OpenAI’s explosive, paying customer base, imply real economics. Sacks reframes it as NVIDIA effectively extending credit: the real question is whether OpenAI and others are ultimately creditworthy given huge token demand.
Gold’s surge is driven less by simple ‘fear’ and more by new structural demand and de-dollarization.
Chamath attributes gold’s breakout above $4,000 largely to net new buyers—especially Tether’s gold-backed stablecoin, central bank rebalancing, and macro funds losing faith in central banks—rather than one clean macro story. Sacks adds that China has been steadily substituting from Treasuries to gold and that US use of the dollar/Swift system as a geopolitical weapon (e.g., vs. Russia) has pushed BRICS toward gold-based settlement concepts. The panel stresses the complexity of correlations vs. causation in gold charts.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesThe Middle East has a way of disappointing you. Sometimes these deals don’t stick, but based on everything we understand right now, this appears to be a big breakthrough.
— David Sacks
Most of these countries are facing a very obvious problem: they have a resource that is becoming increasingly less valuable. That resource is oil.
— Chamath Palihapitiya
There is not a dark GPU in the world today. There’s not gonna be a dark GPU in the world next year.
— Brad Gerstner
Everything is becoming a market. You’re gonna see this convergence where eventually you’ll have sports that look like markets, you’ll have knowledge that becomes a market, and you’ll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this way.
— Chamath Palihapitiya
We should all be celebrating the fact that there is this level of investment going on in the United States. This is the definition of creative destruction.
— Brad Gerstner
QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS EPISODE
5 questionsOn the Gaza ceasefire, what specific leverage did Trump and Kushner actually use over Netanyahu and Hamas, and how durable is that leverage once initial prisoner and hostage exchanges are completed?
The episode covers President Trump’s proposed Gaza ceasefire and broader ‘moonshot’ foreign policy, the controversial deployment of National Guard troops to support ICE in Chicago and potentially Portland, and a fierce debate over crime, immigration enforcement, and federal vs. state power.
If the central constraint for AI is shifting from chips to power and HBM, what concrete policy steps should the US take now (on energy, permitting, or export controls) to avoid ceding those chokepoints to countries like China or Korea?
The besties then dissect OpenAI’s massive GPU deal with AMD, the economics of AI compute, power constraints, and whether equity-for-capacity structures constitute risky “round-tripping” or just modern vendor finance.
Your immigration debate framed ICE brutality as both a moral and political liability—what would a detailed, operational playbook for ‘compassionate but effective’ enforcement actually look like in a major sanctuary city?
They explore the explosive rally in gold, driven by new forms of demand (notably Tether and central banks like China’s) and geopolitical shifts away from the dollar, and finish with the institutionalization of prediction markets via Polymarket’s big ICE investment.
Given how tightly NVIDIA’s fortunes are tied to a small set of hyperscalers and model labs, what scenario would make you genuinely worry that today’s GPU-for-equity deals cross the line into 1999‑style sham revenue recognition?
Throughout, they frame AI and capital markets as central to American strength, while warning that regulatory or political overreach—from policing to AI rules to dollar weaponization—could squander current advantages.
If BRICS move toward gold-backed settlement instruments and prediction markets like Polymarket proliferate, how might the combination of de-dollarization and hyper-financialized information markets change US policymakers’ room for maneuver in future crises?
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
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