All-In's 2026 Predictions

California’s wealth tax fight is viewed as a multi-year saga, not a one-off vote.

Sacks argues even if the measure fails in 2026, a version likely returns in 2028, driving preemptive relocation and sustained uncertainty—especially with punitive treatment of super-voting shares.

Super-voting share valuation is portrayed as the most explosive design flaw.

Sacks claims the proposal would multiply perceived ownership by voting control, potentially treating founders’ stakes as far larger than liquid value—making a 5% wealth tax effectively far higher and incentivizing flight.

A strong-growth 2026 is a central shared bet (roughly ~4.6% to 6% GDP).

Sacks, Chamath, and Friedberg cite falling inflation, productivity spikes, rate cuts, and tax changes as tailwinds; they frame this as a “coiled spring” economy aided by AI productivity and labor-market tightening.

Tech may become a bipartisan populist target, even as it aligns more with MAGA.

Friedberg predicts an anti-tech referendum as AI/wealth become scapegoats; Chamath notes GOP senators’ distrust of certain tech leaders, while Sacks says tech’s “natural ally” is the right due to property-rights politics.

AI is forecast to shrink the SaaS ‘maintenance and migration’ revenue pool.

Chamath calls the software industrial complex a multi-trillion-dollar economy where 90% of profits come from maintenance/migration; agents and automation could compress pricing power and boost disruptors.

AI may increase—not decrease—knowledge-worker demand (Jevons paradox).

Sacks’ contrarian view is that cheaper code/analysis expands the number of feasible projects and use cases; he analogizes to radiology where more scans drive more total demand despite automation.

Traditional M&A is expected to be constrained; IP-licensing deals will proliferate.

Chamath predicts ‘license + talent/IP’ structures (Google/Character AI, Microsoft-like patterns) will replace big acquisitions due to antitrust and national security/export-control friction across the U. ...