The Twenty Minute VCReid Hoffman, LinkedIn & Paypal Founder: Trump Administration, Elon Musk and DOGE | E1239
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
110 min read · 21,723 words- 0:00 – 0:44
Intro
- RHReid Hoffman
The trade wars will create a massive drop in prosperity in the US. There is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending. We're not reaching the upper end of LLM. The next large LLM that's trained with a larger computer will still have new magic in it. The scale game is still playing.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Ready to go? (instrumental music plays) Reid, I am so excited for this. It's so special to have you in person again. Thank you for being here.
- RHReid Hoffman
Always a pleasure.
- 0:44 – 1:40
The Latest Updates from Reid
- RHReid Hoffman
I look forward to this.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Now listen, I know you have some news, so I'd love to just start with some of the news and let you start with that.
- RHReid Hoffman
So, look, obviously there's been a, uh, a meme because as I was talking about with my friends, um, that, you know, obviously I, I, I am still extremely hopeful for American prosperity. I will remain living in Seattle, Washington. It's my residence. But, uh, when I was talking to friends, I said, "Look, I'd love to spend more time in the UK." That became a whole meme with the New York Times saying, "He's moving." And it's like, no, no, no, no, no. I'm, I'm still based in Seattle, Washington. But of course, I come to the UK twice a year already anyway, and here I am.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And you thought, "You know what? I'd love to see Harry-"
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
"... two more times a year."
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes, exactly.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Yeah. I, I totally get it.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
My mother thinks the same.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes. By the way, I, I, I will commit here to being on air with you twice a year. (laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
(laughs) Do you know what? This is worth it already.
- 1:40 – 6:34
Reid’s Future Involvement in US Politics
- HSHarry Stebbings
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes, yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Um, can I ask, how do you think about your future involvement in US politics? Like, just diving right in.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
You were very active-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... last election cycle.
- RHReid Hoffman
So look, I think one of the things that it's a responsibility of Americans to do, including myself of course, is you try to make whatever administration as successful as possible for the people of America, for the country, for the industry. I will be doing that. I will be investing in businesses. Um, I will be, uh, you know, kind of getting new American businesses generated. Um, and so I will be doing those things. Obviously in the next administration, um, they don't wanna have me helping them. (laughs) Right? I won't be, uh, involved in any of the activity that's, that, that, that the administration is doing. Um, and actually, you know, obviously I anticipate, unfortunately, I'll probably be critical of some of the things the administration's doing. I hope to help do as many of the things that are, like, reduce regulation, increase energy for AI, have, uh, AI companies be prosperous for America and around the world. I'll be doing all that kinda stuff. But on the other hand, you know, uh, I suspect that I will have some things that I'm still an opponent of.
- HSHarry Stebbings
You said that, uh, you might be critical of some things. I'm critical of some things of this wonderful labor government-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... about everything that they do, bluntly.
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
Um, and someone said to me the other day, "You should be a bit more careful. Um, some-"
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
"... of your tweets might piss them off." Uh, do you feel like you have the freedom and flexibility to be critical?
- RHReid Hoffman
I do because of the principles of America, which is we should aspire to continue to be a place where we can speak truth to power, that we can criticize when things are wrong. And I will continue to do that. Now, that being said, one of the things that I think is part of the reason why I have been critical of some of Trump's supporters and some of what Trump has done is because, um, there is, uh, even in the first administration, there was the, there were some abuses of instruments of state for personal gain, for personal, um, uh, power. And that is, I think, uh, anti the spirit of anything in democracy, anti the spirit of anything in American. And so those are the things that I would still be, continue to be opposed to in as much as they play out. Now, my friends argue, no, no, that's just the electoral path, that when he, when he talks about the fact that he is going to, um, kind of attack enemies within or threaten to execute generals or other kinds of things, that's just, that's just politicking. That's not something that we will actually see. I am hopeful that they are right and I'm hopeful that we'll get back to, you know, the business of America, which is business.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Can I ask you, you said you were hopeful there. There's multiple different outcomes that can come. If you think, like, what could go very wrong with this administration-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... and then what could actually go right-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... if we look on... What could go wrong first?
- RHReid Hoffman
So, um, if the administration were to engage in a lot of idiosyncratic political persecution, um, so, uh, whether it's, uh, individuals, um, politicians, military figures, businesses that, um, were attacked entirely for political reasons, um, and kind of the, the balance of politics versus legitimate reasons, right? Um, 'cause, you know, sometimes people do, you know, bad things, whoever they are, and that's fine, but like, that that was the kind of cause of what's happening. That's, for example, I think one of the reasons why, um, like, this whole tariffs thing, which could be enormously destructive is, I think, is like, well, how do I apply tariffs idiosyncratically, like, a- against my political opponents but not for my political allies? You know, it's kind of always happening. Um, economic corruption, um, w- what if foreign actors, Russia, others were...... transferring economics to people with political power in order to influence the US and what they're doing. You know, easy ways to do that are, like, you know, buy Truth Social stock. Um, easy ways to do that are buy, uh, Freedom Coin or Currency, uh, invest in businesses that, you know, people who are, um, you know, have a lot of political power or
- HSHarry Stebbings
Yes.
- RHReid Hoffman
... that is constantly payoffs. Those, all of those things would be in the category of, like, disastrous
- 6:34 – 10:41
How Should Tariffs Be Used to Benefit America?
- RHReid Hoffman
things.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Can I ask, on the tariff side-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... what would you do with tariffs? What is the right way to leverage use them to benefit America?
- RHReid Hoffman
Look, America benefits enormously from a global trade regime. We, um, the, the whole country gets a lot of economics and prosperity, including, uh, things that support areas of the country that have more economic challenge. So you don't wanna create trade wars. The trade wars will create a massive drop in prosperity in the US and in other places. Now that being said, there are places that, um, either have, um, like for example, take Iran, who have, are bad actors within the international context, um, or Russia, and that actually in fact, um, you know, are creating violence and war and, and chaos and, um, you know, kind of in various countries around the world. And you use tariffs and other kinds of sanctions as a way to, to reign in that behavior. That's one zone. Another one is if you have, um, countries that are behaving irresponsibly within the global economic system, and so for example, with China, um, there's ways in which they, um, they slant the field so that they say, "Well, we can do economics in your country, but y- you, we can, you, we can do business in your country, but you can't do business in our country." I think responding to-
- HSHarry Stebbings
Social media.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes. So it's like, okay, if you're, if you're gonna disallow our businesses to operate in your country, we can disallow your businesses, in parallel, to operate in our country, right? Just as an economic thing as, as, as kind of nothing else for, for how to, you know, how to operate, and those kinds of things I think are useful. Um, I think if, if, for example, people are using, um, labor camps to produce products, adding tariffs as a way of saying, "We're not gonna allow you, allow that to happen," that's another good use. But those are, like, specific things, not, not general mercantile warfare.
- HSHarry Stebbings
But how do you think about the Chinese car industry? You mentioned-
- RHReid Hoffman
Hm.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... their kind of global tariffs. That's-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... obviously one. They subsidize the Chinese car industry-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... phenomenally so they can do incredibly cheap production.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
How do you think about that and the destruction that that brings to European cars?
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah. No, and that's precisely, like, one of the areas we say, "Well, look, you're behaving irresponsibly because, um, you're actually in fact trying to destroy our industry in the short-term so that you can then raise prices later and capture it." That is mercantile warfare. Responding to mercantile warfare is completely fine.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And so we should raise tariffs on-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes, yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... Totally get that. Um, so if that's, like, concerns on what could go wrong, if we were to put on the optimistic hat-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... what could go right?
- RHReid Hoffman
So I think a number of things. This is actually I think the US will be benefited by a substantial reduction in regulation, um, because the kind of like the, okay, for every new regulation you wanna add, remove two, as a way of kind of modernizing and refactoring versus just accreting. Some of that will be, you know, AI, for example, an area that I'm, uh, committed to, passionate about, believe will be great for the world over time. Uh, we'll need power. How do you get that power? Uh, what do you do with regulatory? A return to nuclear, uh, power, uh, fission and fusion I think will be, uh, really amazing. I think the, um, the question around being deeply committed to growing business across the entire country, um, I think will be, like, really good and, like, like, one of the things that I actually think is a, uh, not only a competence but a moral requirement for American presidents is to say business is good. Now you should invest in business across the entire industry, not just your own. So it's not just improve real estate, (laughs) right? Or improve Freedom Coin. It's do the entire thing, and I think that's, that's really important. So I think all of those things are things that we could, uh, see as very good outcomes.
- 10:41 – 14:06
What Does Elon’s Political Role Mean for AI’s Future?
- RHReid Hoffman
- HSHarry Stebbings
So many things I wanna unpack there. Uh, we mentioned kind of, uh, AI. What does Elon's political ascendancy mean for the future of AI?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, it's a little unclear. It kinda depends on what he, how he chooses to use his, uh, time and focus. So if his time and focus was let's make sure that, um, all of the kind of players in US industry are, uh, greatly amplified, like availability of power, uh, and c- and creation of new data centers and power for do that and that's across the entire industry, that would be an enormous boon. Um, if the question around, okay, let's make sure that we are being rational about how we are willing to import talent as we have done in the history of the US to bring in talent that can work on this across the entire industry, that could be really good. Um, if it was the I wanna make sure that we are, um, uh, inventing the future at the speed we need to be doing it, that's really good. Now the challenges would be is what if he goes, "No, no, the most important issue facing AI is woke AI," 'cause we have this cr- this calling card which e- means a whole bunch of different kind of, you know, like, you know, these people are evil and terrible. It's, that's silly, (laughs) right? And not good, but easy to fix and not the most important issue when you consider what, like, AI means for American prosperity, wellbeing, a bunch of other things. Like, that's an easy fix.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think Doge will be successful?
- RHReid Hoffman
In a sense, I would want it to be because I think the refactoring of bureaucracy, the refactoring of efficiency, those are things that I think accurately have gone wrong. I think, um, there is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because when you look at, like, the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending. Tho- those are the two areas where, or, or, or, or for example, Medicare, right? Social Security. Those are the areas where the real money is for this. Like, w- we wanna posture that it's, uh, that it, that, that we just have too many federal employees, and by the way, maybe we do have too many federal employees, but it's not where the trillions of dollars in terms of what you can cut outta the budget. That's not actually where you can get it.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Did you see the news, though, of, like, we don't actually know where your taxes go?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, that's generally true for very large financial institutions. And, and by the way, I think it's an important thing to ... Like, that's the reason why, like you say, bull-bear case on, on Doge as well, you go, "Look, I actually think kind of going through, um, balancing the books, figuring out the economics, applying kinda fiscal discipline in the way that we do in companies is a very good thing." What I think the, is, is a false promise is to say, "Well, the real important thing is if we lay off X percentage of the federal workforce, then all of a sudden our federal budget will be so much more trim." It's like, well, no, no, actually that's not ... That's ... Y- you just have to do the math, and that's actually not where, where the, where the numbers that you're claiming
- 14:06 – 19:18
What Should Happen to Defense Spending in Europe & the US?
- RHReid Hoffman
you'll get to is.
- HSHarry Stebbings
What do you think should happen to defense spending? In Europe, we spend woeful amounts-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... on defense, and, you know, I've got Torsten from Helsing coming out tomorrow's-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... show.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
He wants, bluntly, it to be 5, 6%, and then-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... it's 2%.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah, yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
What should happen to US defense spending?
- RHReid Hoffman
So I think US defense spending should reduce, right? I think that would actually be a good thing. It's one of the problems that we have in American politics in that we have neither the political will to do that on either the, uh, left or the right side. Like, if I anticipate anything gonna be happening in the next administration, it will be increase in defense spending versus decrease, despite all the, "We're gonna have fiscal discipline, and we're gonna reduce cost, and we're gonna bring this ..." You know, a massive amount of that comes from the, the Department of Defense. And the way that I would do it is I would try to sh- ... 'Cause basically, the business of America's business, it's you wanna be investing in things that create the future businesses. The military-industrial complex is not the business that you most wanna be investing in. And so, um, how do you essentially do that?
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think you can reduce defense budgets, though, when you have the global conflicts that we have today?
- RHReid Hoffman
Uh, yes. Right. I mean, it's not ... We, we spend i- ... Like, if you said, "Where should Doge focus?" the answer is actually, in fact, there's a lot of massive misspending within the Department of Defense. Now, part of that is not the, just the Department of Defense's fault. Let's take a specific. We should not be building aircraft carriers. Aircraft carriers themselves cost billions. The planes on them are more billions. They put, you know, thousands of American lives on them, and in the modern world, you have to ... Like, sure, an aircraft carrier is great for bullying Sudan, (laughs) right, which is not a particularly good use of billions of dollars in military. In a real conflict, a, one or two hypersonic missiles, which are like $2 million each, can take out an aircraft carrier. So if you said, "What should I be doing to save money in American defense?" It's like, let's stop building aircraft carriers. But of course, part of the political reason that doesn't happen is because the states and Congresspeople ... Like, one of the things that happens frequently is the Department of Defense says, "Well, we should stop these programs," and Congress says, "No, we're continuing them because this is where, you know, you're spending money and our district is." And that's the kind of thing that if Doge had guts, they would go to, (laughs) right? But, you know, that's a difficult political tarmac, ter- target.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Te- very difficult. Do you think the US should continue to subsidize the lack of spending that Europe commits to in defense?
- RHReid Hoffman
Um, I think yes. I th- Look, I think it's better for the world and better for Europe if Europe increases its defense spending. Now, I understand it was the right thing after World War II and the right thing with the Marshall Plan and the right thing to create interdependence to do that because you wanted to make sure that in this area that created two world wars, that you created strength of ties and bonds. It's part of what the E- the European Union's about, trade, mutual prosperity. But now that that's there, I think it's good for Europe to get to its, its, its rightful place, both in, for example, like, defense against terrible players like Russia, other things, but also in the world, to be another important force in the world, and that means increasing the defense spending.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And that includes Ukraine? Okay.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah, I ... Look, my view is that, um, the Ukrainian people, uh, have the right to fight for their own, uh, uh, self-defense and that it is a good thing in the modern world order to defend people who are defending their own children, their own, you know, families, their own a- you know, against genocide. And it is not for us to say, "Oh, Ukraine was always just part of Russia." That's for the Ukrainians to say, not for us. That's, that's enormously ... Like, that's kind of like ... That, that, that's one o- that's a repetition of evils that human beings frequently do, so-
- HSHarry Stebbings
But-
- RHReid Hoffman
... you should be clear about this. And people have a right to articulate their own self-determination. I think supporting them in that is, I think, a good thing.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Can I ask? You mentioned Medicare. What would you like to see happen with Medicare, and what would be the right ...... next 12 to 24 months?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, it's another area that's a political third rail in the US because, uh, older people vote at much higher percentages. And so therefore, figuring out how to- like for example, again, if you said, "If Doge had guts," they'd go look at this area to say, "Well, how should we rationalize this on a cost port per quality, you know, month of life?" And you go, "Well, look, there's a whole bunch of money that's spent on these last three to six months of life. Let's reduce the spending on that and say that is not a public ex- you know, a public expense. And let's increase, like, for example, preventative and other things that are much more dollar-focused." Now again, you know, unfortunately, I would predict that they're not going to do that because it's a political third rail and it requires, you know, courage and, and, and other
- 19:18 – 21:38
Should TikTok Be Banned Due to Its Political Influence?
- RHReid Hoffman
things to go into it.
- HSHarry Stebbings
You mentioned that the propensity for older people to vote, um, completely obviously true. What, what Trump did well was harnessing actually TikTok and younger people to vote. I'm intrigued. We mentioned, you know, BYD and Chinese car imports. Should TikTok be banned on the back of this?
- RHReid Hoffman
The right way, I think, to think about this from an American or any other perspective is to say, China bans competition in China from Meta, Twitter, et cetera. And so the right way to say is like, "Look, if you're banning our companies, we should ban yours." Commercial- e- entirely a commercial question, not a question around, you know, um, like, well, that's a Chinese social media company. It's a- 'cause I, I actually believe that there's a different question when you say, "Well, what should be the rules of governance for social media companies when you get around the world?" And I think there should be, you know, some transparency, responsiveness to local laws, et cetera. But, um, but I think that's the, the, the, the right thing to do. Now-
- HSHarry Stebbings
Is it a bit childish? I don't mean that rudely, but it's like-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... well, you know, if a child gets, you know, hit at school, it's like the parent saying, "Well, hit them back harder."
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes. (laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
So (laughs) not-
- RHReid Hoffman
Well-
- HSHarry Stebbings
... really the right response, is it?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, Um, look, I think it's a question of... It gets back to the tariffs question, which is, you want people to be playing on a, on a, on a fair and balanced, um, playing field. And so if you're denying, um... You know, Country X is denying licenses to Country Y, then Country Y should do that to Country X, (laughs) right? As a, as a just a general thing, to get back to a, a, a playing field. It's not, um... And by the way, it, th- there's lots of bad actors in the world. So, so yes, sometimes, by the way, when the bully hits you, the only way to stop the bully from hitting you again or hitting someone else is to hit them back pretty hard, (laughs) right? 'Cause then they learn, oh, there's consequences, (laughs) right? So, so it's not, it's, like sometimes the rule of the, of the five-year-old playing ground is actually in fact the rule that countries live
- 21:38 – 23:53
How Realistic Is a Transition to Nuclear Power?
- RHReid Hoffman
by.
- HSHarry Stebbings
We mentioned, like, power and nuclear. There's a lot of, uh, opinions around it. How realistic is it to see the transition to nuclear power like is needed or beneficial?
- RHReid Hoffman
So this is maybe my greatest hope out of, um, out of a administration that promises to be a wrecking ball to a history of, of regulation, because the things that we have done in regulating nuclear have been destructive to, for example, climate change because you're using a lot more coal versus nuclear. I mean, we see great examples in France as how to use nuclear well. The technology has advanced over the decades in nuclear fission. Um, you know, people have invented nuclear fission, uh, plants that p- are powered, it's TerraPower, called TerraPower, powered on nuclear waste. So it's a way of consuming the waste and getting rid of it and converting it into power. There's all of these things that are really, really good to do, and a regulatory agency, you know, backed up by fearful publicly- public opinion, unknowledgeable, ignorant public opinion, but fearful too, uh, hasn't done anything about this. And then you say, "Well, what's the best way?" We're, we're, we're worried about running out of electricity, we're worried especially about green electricity, like, going and doing this. And so I myself have been investing in both fission and fusion over the last, you know, five to 10 years entirely philanthropically. I have no idea how to invest in this as a, as, as... When I, when I wr- do these investments, I write them as zero in my book. I have no idea what the, what the economic outcomes are of this, unlike, like, internet investing or software investing, or what's the rational way of doing it? But creating the technology for the benefit of society and humanity is extremely important. So I've been, I've been putting, like, lots of money into this o- out of a desire for making, you know, Ameri- putting America in a much better position, helping the world with this new technology, et cetera.
- 23:53 – 28:41
Does Climate Risk Losing Priority Amid AI & Global Conflict?
- RHReid Hoffman
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you worry that with AI, with global conflict, with everything that we see today, climate kinda just falls down the pecking order?
- RHReid Hoffman
I think it's guaranteed-
- HSHarry Stebbings
Mm-hmm.
- RHReid Hoffman
... unfortunately, and given that it is an inevitable... It's, it's a physics process, I, I, I worry about that. That's one of the, um, I think likely outcomes of the next administration that will be a serious impact. Now that being said, like you said, okay, bull bearer on the next administration, they'll go, "Oh no."... as they've said, climate change is a fiction and, and it's a, it's a liberal conspiracy and, you know, da, da, da. And you're like, "Why would the liberals bother with a climate change conspiracy?" I mean, it's just, like, the logic of this is not great. What they might do, which I would hope- again, be hopeful for, is they say, "Look. What we really need to be doing is doing the, uh, Apollo projects on the right kinds of clean energy. And we're now gonna, we're gonna now go, you know, 10X down onto that, including vers- all versions of nuclear, as well as everything else." And that actually might have a very positive impact over time in what we're doing with climate change.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Does AI do more to help or to hurt climate change?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, it's a frequent misconception, 'cause there's obviously a growth of a, of a electricity curve, that AI has got climate impact. One, it's, it's something like data centers, I think, or something like, it's some single-digit percentage of all power consumption, like three-something. So it's not very big. And then AI within data centers is like, you know, a single-digit percentage of that. So currently, AI is not accounting for any of the electricity that makes any of the difference. Now, but it's growing and you go, "Well, what happens if it continues to grow in a compounding way?" And so forth. So we go, and so everyone goes, "Ah, ha, ha, I can be, I can be c- green in climate by posturing in the media, by saying, you know, 'AI is bad for climate. Pay attention to me please. Le- pay attention to me please.'" And actually, in fact, this is a little bit like the people who were being anti-nuclear, which then caused a whole bunch of coal plants to be built, which caused a whole bunch of environmental degradation, uh, as a consequence of being anti-nuclear. Um, the, it's a similar thing because AI has several port- por- points of being massively positive on climate. Here, here's a simple ac- uh, uh, actual data point. So, uh, Google's engineers, some of the best in the world at, right, running data centers thought, "We have run our data centers as efficiently as possible." It was, I think, five, seven, eight years ago, DeepMind ran their algorithms on Google's data centers and figured out how to save 15% of the electricity. So think about you're applying AI and intelligence that go, "How do we run our grids more efficiently? How do we, how do we apportion costs? How do we do all this stuff? How do we add intelligence to all this?" That's one. Two, maybe even more significant, which, by the way, that means, uh, AI technology can actually be a net energy saver as we apply it to the inference cost, to all the electricity we do in the future. Number two is, well, what's happening is a boon for, for green energy right now. All of the major hyperscalers are doing multi-billion dollar commitments to green energy companies, saying, "If you can deliver the energy, we will pay you the in- we will give you the initial customer capital to, to build that. And by the way, we will subsidize 'cause energy is always expensive when it's small and cheaper as it gets bigger. We will pay the expense at the beginning to start building your nuclear, to build your geothermal, to build your," in order to do that. So they are functioning as the R&D venture capital for creating green energy for the entire society in building their new data centers. So that's another thing where AI is coming out to building green energy. And then, look, the most far-fetched and unclear is-
- HSHarry Stebbings
We love far-fetched, so go on, yeah.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, but, but, like, but, like, look, it's also possible, but I think this is a more of a science fiction thing is, well, could the patterns of intelligence in AI, and they, people are doing this work, like applying it to, can we get it to make fusion to work? Can we, can, can it solve certain problems that then make sustainable green energy possible because of the intelligence that AI b- can bring in its massive computation to solving these problems? And people are working on that, on fusion containment, right, for, 'cause if you can make fusion work, you can solve climate change.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Can you just unpack
- 28:41 – 30:27
Can Fusion Completely Solve Climate Change?
- HSHarry Stebbings
that for me? Sorry. I'm, I'm very naive. I'm a pure venture investor.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
So not nearly as intellectual. How does fusion completely solve climate change?
- RHReid Hoffman
So fusion is the most scalable green energy with, um... It, you know, the sun is powered by fusion, and obviously there's various ways to try to use solar, um, that w- I don't think we've tapped out on, and everything from satellites with solar energy collection to various things on the ground, so I think there's a bunch of stuff there. That's actually, in a sense, an indirect fusion 'cause you have this massive fusion reactor that's known as the sun. But microfusion is both super safe and can produce enormous amounts of power, um, very cheaply. And once you have enormous amounts of power, you can solve significant world crises. So for example, how do you do decarbonization? How do you pull carbon out of the atmosphere in order to reduce global temperature back to that great band that, uh, humanity prospers in? And the answer is, it takes a lot of energy. Well, if your energy is carbon producing as you're doing it, and then you don't, you c- you're, you're not net doing it. So you have to be carbon, you know, neutral to negative on this. Then if you can produce it at massive scale, you can pull carbon out of the, uh, out of the energy, let alone power all of the things that human beings want, like, you know, houses and transport and all the rest. So, so it's, it's, it's the, it's, it's, it's, it's more than the silver bullet. It's like the platinum bullet.
- HSHarry Stebbings
I love a platinum bullet. Thank you for explaining that, by the way. I've learned one thing. Never be afraid to ask the really basic questions.
- 30:27 – 32:07
How Significant Is Google’s New Quantum Chip Announcement?
- HSHarry Stebbings
(laughs)
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
Um, you mentioned there actually DeepMind and what you did with the efficiency within data centers. How important was Willow, Google's announcement on their new quantum chips yesterday?
- RHReid Hoffman
Hmm. Yeah. Um, well, I think it's a significant step forward. Um-You know, look. I still think -I don't know exactly where we will be in scale of quantum computing. Um, I think, uh, usually, again, of course, the discourse with new technology always starts with the fears, which is, is a mistake that I'm always trying to correct because, um, it doesn't mean you shouldn't have concerns and anxieties and navigate, but like, for example, you go, "Oh my God. Quantum computing. It's gonna break security and our banking system is gonna collapse and our public, you know, encryption and security and safety is gonna collapse, and oh my God, there's a disaster." You're like, "Well, look. We'll have to figure that out because that'll be an issue once we get to what is, you know, somewhere maybe minimum 2,000 or 5,000 logical quantum bits, qubits." So that's at 2,000 to 5,000 or more is when you get into the encryption issues. At, call it 150 to 250 logical qubits, so a complete order of magnitude down, quantum computers become great at helping invent new medicines, new drugs, new semiconductors, new physical materials, things at a microscale. That's gonna be the first thing from quantum computing. So the moment that we can get there, it will have enormous prosperity benefits well before we have to navigate these things. And so, uh, I'm very hopeful about quantum computing, I just don't know the, uh,
- 32:07 – 38:23
Has Anyone Ever Held as Much Power as Elon Musk?
- RHReid Hoffman
timeframe.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Speaking of kind of, uh, immense power, one thing that did just strike me, that kind of worried me is, like, I don't think we've ever seen someone with as much power as Elon has. He owns the digital town hall, he owns the roads around the town hall with Tesla, he owns the power for it with Starlink, and he kind of owns the physical town hall now with ownership of, you know, Donald.
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
Uh, have we ever had someone with so much power? And is that not worrying?
- RHReid Hoffman
Uh, I think we have had people with that much power in history, but I think part of modern society is to create checks and balances, to create, uh, accountability within your government so like, for example, um, traditionally, when you have people who go into government, they put their business stuff in blind trusts and do other things in order to avoid conflicts of interest. Um, so I think the worry is not necessarily the power as much as the conflicts of interest and navigating the conflicts of interest with, you know, kind of ethics and integrity, which I think is the thing to watch with the next administration. The power, um, look. I think that Elon has, uh, like he-
- HSHarry Stebbings
He's able to turn off the internet for large swathes of the population.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah, look. And so I think we, we want that to be within the hands of democratically elected governments (laughs) , right? Um, or at least certain parts of it, and I think that's, um, I think that's important. But, but by the way, you know, I mean, I think, uh, while there are things that I have been and, you know, ca- probably will be in the future critical of Elon about, um, you know, uh, the electric vehicle revolution owes itself to Elon. The revolution in, uh, space, uh, ISPs with Starlink owes itself to Elon. And by the way, the initial defense of Ukraine would not have worked without Starlink, so, so there's enormous positive contributions here, so it's, it's a complicated topic. Now, that being said, I would, um, I would want the kind of halls of democracy and government and the conflicts of interest within personal businesses to be kept very distinct, and, and I think we may see some challenge in that.
- HSHarry Stebbings
What do you think is his greatest power and his greatest weakness?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, they actually kind of go together. Elon has a conviction that he, what he believes is true is absolutely true, uh, even when all of the evidence is against his belief, right? And so that allows him to do, "I can see that we can colonize Mars, and here we go," (laughs) right? Um, and that creates, you know, SpaceX, that creates Starlink, that creates, and so huge amount of kudos and power. But then that similarly, when he sees a conspiracy theory on Twitter that's probably being, um, created by Russian, uh, intelligent assets to destabilize the US, he goes, "Ah, that looks right to me," and then he'll retweet it (laughs) , right? 'Cause that, that's, that's correct. And so it's the same impulse which has created these amazing things but also has these destructive things.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Should one not have policing on tweets? I had this debate before-
- RHReid Hoffman
Mm-hmm.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... with many American guests, and I'm like, "That can be very dangerous and damaging to have someone retweet with his power and weight to the audience that he does." And my American friends are like, "Of course not. It's freedom of speech. You should be entitled to."
- RHReid Hoffman
The importance of freedom of speech, the, the, there's a, there's a really interesting distinction between freedom of speech and freedom of reach, right? So if you're standing at the local corner and standing on a soapbox and saying, "The moon is made out of blue cheese and the Earth is flat," and so forth, uh, that's fine. Go ahead, (laughs) right? Right. When we have our collective media systems, e.g. reach, it's important to have some ability to say, "Well, we should bring in studies and expertise into it." And by the way, this is what we've made progress with science, this is how we've made progress with law, is we use cons-, uh, uh, thoughtful groups of people to, to bring a notion of truth. So in, in science, it's reproducibility of science experience, it's scientific panels which decide on things being, uh, you know, kind of, uh, advocated as true. Uh, in juries, it's you have, in the US, 12 people who listen to it and have to kind-... uh, to agree. We have blue ribbon commissions. That's the way we do things. And so we need to kinda figure out how to apply that also within, call it, the reach-
- HSHarry Stebbings
So should there be policing? 'Cause I mean, he, you know, he is not an ambassador for the UK to say the least. (laughs)
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes. (laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
Um, and some of the stuff that he retweets is true.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And some is completely not true. (laughs)
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And people believe it. So should there be policing or not?
- RHReid Hoffman
Look, if I could, through a democratic process, 'cause I believe in democracies, I believe in collective governance, get, um, our society to agree to say, "Hey, what we should do is identify some topics that panels of experts can, can yield to a truth determination on," I would prefer we do, with all media... And by the way, it's not just social media. It's also cable news. It's also talk radio. We say, "Look, if you're going to speak your opinion, which you may do, you can say the world is flat." I can get on Harry's podcast and go, "I believe the world is flat." And then what you'd say is, "Oh, by the way, uh, expert opinion says that's completely false." And just along with my saying the world is flat, expert opinion comes up and says, "Hey, by the way, if you're listening to this, you should also consider that expert opinion says this is totally false," right? And so it allows you freedom of speech, but it then allows, allows a collective learning system in a sense that I would prefer that. But we need to get there through a democratic
- 38:23 – 39:54
On Epstein
- RHReid Hoffman
process.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Frankly, one of the things that he said, which is dangerous and the reach is worrying, people said in, in comments when I asked this, uh, about Epstein.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Um, why is that wrong?
- RHReid Hoffman
I was never a client of Jeffrey Epstein's. I never had anything directly to do with Epstein. Everything I did was fundraising for MIT, right? Which, my mistake, which I've publicly apologized for, is I relied on MIT's vetting to say, "Hey, we vetted him. Um, and, um, and it's okay to do this." Um, I obviously regret that. I've issued an apology about blemishing brands because, you know, the damage to victims and other kinds of things. But of course, the modern age is such that these things get reported and so then have a media impulse. So you have to be, uh, responsive to that.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you not worry, though, about that cancel culture and that freedom of ability to just destroy someone's, uh, by, I mean, by so wrong and lie when you have a reach like Tucker Carlson and you can just say what you want and now fuck it, someone else said it?
- RHReid Hoffman
Um-
- HSHarry Stebbings
Like that's a really worrying world.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes, exactly. And, and the funny thing is, is the right wing says, "Woke is cancel culture." And yet, that's the shit they do. It's of course normal as they're destructive, right? Um, I'm very careful about the things I say. I only say them when I have, you know, some ground for evidence that I can speak publicly to, that I can have other people validate why it is I'm saying it, right? You know, that kind of thing, that's, that's, that's the standard that we should all hold
- 39:54 – 45:41
How Will AI Transform Cancer Treatment?
- RHReid Hoffman
ourselves to.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Matt Clifford told me about a couple of different areas where you're spending time. He told me one is AI applied to cancer.
- RHReid Hoffman
Hm.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Talk to me about y- your work with AI, how that interacts with cancer, and how our interaction with cancer will change moving forward do you think?
- RHReid Hoffman
So one of the things, in addition to quantum computing, which we already talked about, one of the things that I've been looking at is, is what, um, other areas are people not paying nearly enough attention to that AI will make a huge difference for the human condition. And drug discovery is a really important one. And how you use drug discovery as we invent new drugs for really key things like cancer, um, those will make a huge difference to the quality of human life, to lives saved, and to the economics. So we spend a enormous amount of our economic budget on medicine and will have a huge saving there. So I've been looking into that. I've served, uh, I serve on the, uh, the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative Biohub. I serve on the Arc Institute board. I've been working on the intersection of bio and computing for, for over a decade now. And I think now is the time with AI that we'll st- we'll start seeing amazing new products.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think... I was thinking this last night when I was kind of reading into this. Do you think that if you are a serial entrepreneur building an AI today doing a SDR tool for sales teams, you are doing yourself an injustice? When you look... And I know that's a bold statement.
- RHReid Hoffman
Mm, mm.
- HSHarry Stebbings
But when you look at cancer, climate change, poverty, conflict, defense, and you are choosing to spend your time on SDR work. I think it was the Founders Fund guys who said it was, like, an injustice if you do that.
- RHReid Hoffman
Um, I think that's a hyperbolic statement. I mean, look. I think, um, we want to get more people doing the big things, doing nuclear fission and fusion, doing, um, uh, drug discovery, doing education, doing other things that have, uh, an impact for billions. But by the way, sales process is also part of how our, our, our... The OS of our society is business. The OS of our society is... Like, how is government funded? Through the operations of business. How are universities funded? How is medicine funded? How is education funded? Through the operations of business. So improvement of business is a good thing. So improvement of sales and sales efficiency is also a good thing. So is it a less heroic, like, oh my gosh, we... You know, I have cured some versions of cancer. I have made fusion possible. Yes. And I think as a society, we should appropriately, uh, treat the people who are doing the heroism things as heroes. But by the way, it's a contribution to be contributing to sales too.
- HSHarry Stebbings
On the flip side of that, when we think about spending more time in the UK, um-It's a very negative sentiment towards the UK now, forgetting Elon, but just generally. Why are you maybe bullish when everyone else is incredibly bearish?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, I'm bullish for a couple reasons. So one, um, amazing set of talent, um, universities, technical talent, entrepreneurs, um, a willingness to be bold, um, like for example, when you... not just the, the, the, the, the, the, the bold that went and created the United States of America, because you could look at US as a, as a entrepreneurial offshoot from, you know, Great Britain, but also, you know, kind of a, a global perspective, um, a willingness to be... Like one of the things that I loved in, in my, uh, visits here and my days as a student was, you know, the, the, the global learnings and global perspective I get from, you know, London and Oxford and Cambridge and other places. Um, and so I think that there is enormous potential.
- HSHarry Stebbings
How do you think about that though, in the face of like, you know, bluntly the, the deterioration of the German ecosystem, the no growth for the UK for three consecutive years as our wonderful labor government have pointed out? Like, it doesn't look good. I'm trying to be... My business is here.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah, yeah. (laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
My fund is here.
- RHReid Hoffman
Look, um, it doesn't mean there aren't challenges. Uh, you know, uh, maybe I can say this as an American, you know, Brexit was a terrible idea.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Yeah. (laughs)
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs) Right? You know, and, and I think there are challenges. Um, but the, the notion of how we rejuvenate economies, you go, look, how do we build the economies of the future? And so you can't try to hold onto the economies of the past. You don't say, "Well, I wanna be doing coal mining in Newcastle." You're like, no, no. (laughs) Right? We should be good for those communities and people and try to help them transition, but we need to build the economies of the future. And so the question is, is, is I think the UK is well-positioned to make that progress and make that effort, but it has to be collectively investing in it, enabling it, bringing talent-
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think, do you think we are? Because like when you think about chip sovereignty, energy sovereignty-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... um, bluntly, economic distributions across the country, I, I cannot point to one positive around any of them.
- RHReid Hoffman
You may have studied this more closely than I have, and so there may not be yet, but I know that the capabilities, the talent, the will is possible. Now we just have to organize and make it happen. I mean, this is part of the thing of, you know, occasionally since, you know, as part of my support for Entrepreneur First, I meet with these entrepreneurs. They're great entrepreneurs, right? They can create great businesses. We need to enable that. And by the way, once you create great businesses, that then has economy, jobs, revenue, tax revenue, et cetera, et cetera. That's the
- 45:41 – 47:46
Do We Need Chip Sovereignty in Europe?
- RHReid Hoffman
thing we need to be doing.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do we need chip sovereignty and like, you know, Europe's ability to have our own NVIDIAs of the world? Does the US, do we, how do we think about TSMC?
- RHReid Hoffman
So I think it's important, uh, to have chip sovereignty within, call it the western ecosystem. So whether or not, like for example, I would be less, uh, concerned, like I'm an advocate for I think what, uh, the Biden administration did with the CHIPS Act is a good idea. I think that, you know, kind of, uh, restart the chips ecosystem in the US is a very good idea. I hope that while I expect that the next administration, 'cause they'll say everything the Biden administration did was terrible, we're tearing it all down, that they'll tear it down in words and then keep doing the work, (laughs) right? Would be my hope. Um, and, uh, but I would be less, much less concerned about that if Europe had a good chips industry 'cause it's, I... within the western ecosystem and diversified. Like one of the things we learned from COVID is one of the challenges with globalization tends to be the, oh, we, we, we resolved to one point of manufacturer, but then you're brittle. So when, uh, um, when Italy went down with COVID, all of a sudden the specific kind of, um, um, medical manufacturer that was oriented there suddenly broke for the rest of the world. So you want, you want several different places of source of origin for resilience and robustness against possible adversity. And so, um, so ideally in a good world you'd have two to four or five places of semiconductor manufacturer, and you would have at least one or two of those within the western nations. Um, and if that was the case, then we'd be good. Um, but uh, so a single point of dependency on Taiwan has a bunch of
- 47:46 – 51:23
Will Nvidia Maintain Dominance or Be Challenged by Big Tech?
- RHReid Hoffman
global risk.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think NVIDIA continues to accrue power and monopolization or monopolies? Uh, or do you think it continues to be eaten away by Apples, Googles, Amazons building more and more of their own chip supply and ability?
- RHReid Hoffman
So unsurprising to you 'cause you and I have talked a bunch, both, right? So both NVIDIA's business will continue to go very strongly, um, because they have an amazing lead currently in amazing chips and there is, um, you know, massive demand for their chips for doing compute. And many players, Google, Amazon, others, including AMD, are building out chips as well. So you both have them developing what is still a very valuable leading resource and a bunch of other chips developing as well. We have kind of like electricity, we have infinite demand for compute at, at kind of call it modest, at moderate price- pricing. So as long as we can deliver that, we will, demand will completely fill.
- HSHarry Stebbings
In terms of like demand, uh, we have multiple different LLM providers. We had Marc Benioff on the show.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And he's a r- I'm not gonna do his accent. Actually it's gonna be terrible.
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
Uh, we're reaching kind of the upper end of LLM abilities.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Um, but now we're moving-
- RHReid Hoffman
By the way, incorrect, but yes.... we're not reaching the upper end of LLM given it, uh ... Look, it's, it's, um, it's kind of like ... Look, the press cycles like to go, "Aha, we haven't seen anything in the last six months. We're at the upper end." It's like, "Oh, if, if, if it were we haven't seen anything ... By the way, we did see GPT-01." (laughs) Right. If we hadn't seen anything in the last couple of months, that doesn't mean it's the end of the cycle. That means we're still getting to what the next, next set of this stunning things. I think the next larger computer, the next large LLM that's trained with a larger computer, will still have new magic in it. And all of the people who argue against it are, to some degree, arguing their own book. "Well, I don't have the compute, so the next level of compute won't make a difference. I don't have the data, so the next level of data won't make the next difference." Or, "The current data is all we have and so we won't be able to do it." It's like, well, actually, in fact, we can create synthetic data and there's a ton of data that's out there that's not part of the standard internet training corpus. So, the scale game is still playing.
- HSHarry Stebbings
So he was saying we've reached the upper end of LLM.
- RHReid Hoffman
Incorrect.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And then now it's the era of agents.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
And that is why Agent Forces. (laughs)
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs) Well, by the way, he's right that, look, we're gonna have a ton of agents and I think the agents will be composed of multiple models, but, um, to, to count out the next level of scale models as being important in creating a number of quality agents is just incorrect.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you worry when you look at the pricing of some of the investments going down today that it's just a complete bubble?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, so when everyone understands that a technology transformation is happening, a bunch of people make foolish investments. It happened in the internet, it happened in mobile, (laughs) right? It happens. But because there are some foolish investments doesn't mean there aren't also really good investments that change. And so part of the work for being a good investor is to on a probability basis, because you will make some foolish investments too, to make sure that you have some of the really good ones. And so, um, and by the way, sometimes and, like, sometimes the, the decision of foolish or wise is doing something that may seem like it's a crazy price.
- 51:23 – 53:00
A High-Priced Deal Turned Out to Be a Great Investment
- RHReid Hoffman
- HSHarry Stebbings
What deal did you do that seemed like a crazy price but was a phenomenal investment?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, when I did the series A of Airbnb doing-
- HSHarry Stebbings
What was the price?
- RHReid Hoffman
60 million post. At that time, the founders probably could have gotten on the phone all week and called every single person who had used an Airbnb that week if they were working through the call list.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Oh, wow.
- RHReid Hoffman
So it was a very small transactional volume, (laughs) right? And the question is, would it grow? What would happen with cities? What would happen with market acceptance? There was a bunch of other things. But part of the way that I invest is I go, "Well, look, if I'm right, if the theory of this investment is correct, then it will transform an industry." And that's what I tend to do as an investor. It's majority of my investments, not all, there's so- sometimes other things, but if that plays out to be the case. And so then is my theory of my investment at least a reasonable probability, right? Like, it has a reasonable chance of, of working. And that's why I did the Airbnb one. So that would be, that would be one example. I'm sure there's others as I, as I would think about it. Um, but I also tend to be more careful about, um, like, like part of the discipline that I've learned from Silicon Valley is when you look at a seed, a series A, a series B, you go, "Okay, is this, is this ... " It isn't that prices are irrelevant. Does, does the coherent sense of this make sense in terms of what future capital will need, how the entrepreneurs are thinking about their business? And so that's part of where
- 53:00 – 55:18
Are Acquisitions Inevitable for Cash-Strapped Companies?
- RHReid Hoffman
pricing comes in.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think acquihires are inevitable for LLM companies? We see the likes of Mestral in France, they just don't have enough cash.
- RHReid Hoffman
Mm-hmm.
- HSHarry Stebbings
I mean, spade to spade, are acquihires inevitable?
- RHReid Hoffman
I would ... In a well-functioning society, um, hopefully it's acquisitions rather than acquihires. Um, part of the thing that, um ... There's a, there's a threat of antitrust that misunderstands their own game. So for example, the threat of antitrust roughly looks like this. It says, "We should stop the aggregation of power in the large companies, so we should block acquisitions." And in some cases, limited specific cases, that makes sense. But in general, if you want competition with those large companies from startups, investors ... Say, for example, I'm an investor who's going to put a billion dollars into a company that might compete with one of the large tech companies. I'm only going to put the billion dollars in if I have a chance of an acquihire or, not an acqui- an acquisition exit, because I'm going to need the billion dollars back possibly, that's a huge loss. So if I am blocked, if you go, if you have a regulatory authority that say, "We are never going to allow that," then I'm never going to do the investment that allows a company to potentially compete with those large tech companies. And, and so their theory, which is, "We're stopping the aggregation of big power," is they're creating more aggregation of big power because they're stopping the financing of competition.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Does the M&A window open up without leaning con?
- RHReid Hoffman
Uh, well, I hope so, and I ... By the way, I think it's good for society, it's good for competition, (laughs) right? Like, it's good for investing in the competition. And so that's part of the reason why I've, I've kind of made public statements around this, because it's not that I'm saying, "Oh, antitrust is bogus." I'm saying, "You actually got the exact wrong theory of the game."
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you think Figma's antitrust was bogus?
- RHReid Hoffman
Shortly. I mean, look, I'm an investor and all the rest, and, and I think Figma is an amazing company that's going to, going to ... I'm, I'm probably going to make substantially more money because the deal was essentially derailed, but there was a bad theory of the case.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Yeah, well done, CMA.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes.
- 55:18 – 1:01:38
Quick-Fire Round
- RHReid Hoffman
- HSHarry Stebbings
God. Uh, listen, I, I would love to move into a quick fire. I-
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
... always love my, I always leave thinking, "God, I've learned so much." Uh, so I'll say a short statement and you give me your immediate thoughts.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yeah.
- HSHarry Stebbings
What do you believe that most around you disbelieve?
- RHReid Hoffman
What I think is that the AI revolution will both create enormous value for the large companies and enormous value for the small companies, and it's gonna do both. And part of that is because I don't think it's a big tech question, I don't think it's a little tech question, I think it's a scale tech question. And I think part of what we do as investors and creators and creators of new industry is we invest in scaling technology. It starts small and it gets very large and we want more large tech companies. The answer is not we want fewer large tech companies. We want more large tech companies.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Is Twitter better post-Elon or worse?
- RHReid Hoffman
Uh, with deep regret, I would say substantially worse.
- HSHarry Stebbings
What would you do if you knew you couldn't fail?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, fusion energy maybe.
- HSHarry Stebbings
(laughs) Very good answer.
- RHReid Hoffman
(laughs)
- HSHarry Stebbings
Uh, what's the highest multiple investment you've ever made?
- RHReid Hoffman
Um, I actually almost never look at multiples, so I have-
- HSHarry Stebbings
Do you not?
- RHReid Hoffman
No. No, I, my, my investments are at seven to ten years out, and so it's a belief in what seven to ten years looks like.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Cool.
- RHReid Hoffman
Right? And almost everything I invest in is unprofitable when I invest in, I, I, have I invested in a business that's profitable? I can't remember.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Would you, what would you most like to change about venture today? You see the landscape very clearly.
- RHReid Hoffman
Well, what I would love to have, and look, I understand the economics. I myself follow the economics of going into software. A broader range of things, and I've tried to do some of that myself so I don't just preach it, you know, a nuclear fission and fusion, a Joby, and, you know, um, kind of flying cars 'cause, 'cause the world is not just digital. It's also real and physical. And so a broader range would be a good thing.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Tell me, what have you changed your mind on in the last 12 months?
- RHReid Hoffman
Like, a lot of the changes, part of the reason why it's taking me a little bit of time to answer this is a lot of the question, changes are micro changes. Like, it's kind of the, you know, um, what is the right way for governments to interface productively with cryptocurrency? Right? And there's micro things. I still b- I'm a believer in cryptocurrency. I, um, bought Bitcoin back in 2013. I've invested in, in cryptocurrency companies. I think it can be very good for society, but the way that it, you know, the kind of the ways that it can integrate well in society, like, there's evolving beliefs there, like, like what should happen, what should not happen, but they're all, like, micro things, not macro things. Maybe the most, um, macro thing... I- it's not a change in my belief as much as it's kind of like an open question. Um, I watched... And this is, like, the real, like, I'm going to the totally crazy thing, so I don't, I'm not saying I believe in this, but I watched some Congressional testimony from people from the f- national security, um, establishment. Government labs were studying, uh, material from extraterrestrial spacecraft, and this was Congressional testimony. And so it was like, "Huh?" (laughs) Like, you know, was it, is it an asteroid or is it a, is it a robot ship or what, like, or is there nothing? Is it just craziness? But if you, before I had watched that testimony, if you had said, "What do I think about UAPs?" The answer is, "Conspiracy theory." And maybe that's still the right answer. But, like, I just watched that recently and I'm, now gotta go scratch at that a little bit and say, "Okay. What is this UAP thing?" And try to understand it.
- HSHarry Stebbings
What is the price of Bitcoin end of '25?
- RHReid Hoffman
By the way, I never do, uh, like, that, again, seven to ten year horizon, so I bought a bunch of Bitcoin, I've just hold, I just hold it. Like, I've never sell, sold it, (laughs) you know, et cetera. Um, and I then haven't bought new Bitcoin. Um, I would say end of '25, so I'm approaching 200,000.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Okay. Let's do it. We're gonna have another show at the end of '25. You mentioned Bitcoin, you mentioned Airbnb Series A. What was the worst financial investment you've made?
- RHReid Hoffman
Well actually, the interesting thing about this is people tend to think the worst thing you did was you invested in something and it went to zero. Actually, in fact, the worst thing is, is m- saying no to the things that went to the moon.
- HSHarry Stebbings
Was not doing the B of Airbnb and the C.
- RHReid Hoffman
Yes, yes, exactly. Like, those kinds of things. It's like, it's the, it's the putting-
- HSHarry Stebbings
What one comes to mind with that?
Episode duration: 1:01:48
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