Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163

1. 0:00 – 3:37

   Intro

   1. RHReid Hoffman0:00

      (techno music plays) The American electorate right now hasn't really fully remembered the corruption and incompetencies of Trump. Look, I've had a two-hour lunch with Biden. He was asking me questions about AI, he was explaining stuff that was going on in nuanced detail, in Israel. The real issue is, AI is a human amplifier. I'm a lot less worried that the robots are coming than Putin is coming with his AI enablement. (image whooshes) Artificial intelligence, in an economic sense, is it's a steam engine of the mind, and we'll have a cognitive industrial revolution.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings0:29

      Ready to go? (upbeat music plays) Reid, I am so excited for this. This is the first time that we've met-

   3. RHReid Hoffman0:45

      Yes.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings0:45

      ... in person, and it's been, like, six years.

   5. RHReid Hoffman0:48

      Some number of y- Like, like, it's that distant, before pandemic-

   6. HSHarry Stebbings0:52

      (laughs)

   7. RHReid Hoffman0:52

      ... pre-history time.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings0:54

      But I was young then.

   9. RHReid Hoffman0:55

      Yes. Yes.

   10. HSHarry Stebbings0:55

       Yeah, yeah, ouch.

   11. RHReid Hoffman0:55

       Well, still young now, relative to some of us, but-

   12. HSHarry Stebbings0:58

       Ah, may-

   13. RHReid Hoffman0:58

       (laughs)

   14. HSHarry Stebbings0:58

       ... I'm not so sure about that. But, um-

   15. RHReid Hoffman1:00

       Good.

   16. HSHarry Stebbings1:00

       ... I wanna f- kind of focus the first bit on kind of the state of AI.

   17. RHReid Hoffman1:03

       Yes.

   18. HSHarry Stebbings1:03

       And I wanted to actually just ask a bit of a bold question, if it's okay?

   19. RHReid Hoffman1:07

       Mm-hmm.

   20. HSHarry Stebbings1:08

       Can you be objective and impartial-

   21. RHReid Hoffman1:11

       Mm-hmm.

   22. HSHarry Stebbings1:11

       ... given your board membership with Microsoft?

   23. RHReid Hoffman1:14

       A central answer is yes. Uh, but, um, because, by the way, what I have most wanted to aspire to be is a public intellectual, which is, how do you speak the truth about who we are and who we should be as individuals in a society? So I aspire to that in every aspect of my life. Now, that being said, I do of course have commitments to the board at Microsoft, so there are things that I can't talk about.

   24. HSHarry Stebbings1:37

       Sure.

   25. RHReid Hoffman1:37

       But as opposed to, like, what you say, objective, is like, I just say, "I can't talk about it," versus, like, giving a false answer or a misleading answer. And then the second is, obviously I learn a bunch from the world from that. Like, there's a, like, there's a, a, a perspective that I will learn from the intensity of Microsoft that may give me a, um, you know, kind of a, a, a blue-colored lens as I'm looking at something. Um, but, uh, but I myself aspire to be a public intellectual, to speak truth so that we collectively become better.

   26. HSHarry Stebbings2:11

       Why do you think you aspire to be a public intellectual? I didn't mean that rudely, but like-

   27. RHReid Hoffman2:14

       No, no, no. Well, that, that was, that was the goal. I get great joy from, uh, discussion where we are discovering truths together. Right, that, yeah, and teaching is part of that, right?

   28. HSHarry Stebbings2:26

       Mm-hmm.

   29. RHReid Hoffman2:27

       So some teaching is, we're in a seminar and we're talking, and we go, "Ah, we now understand some important aspect of the world better," whether it's about ourselves, whether it's about the world. And, um, and that's what I think, to some degree, one of the fundamental parts of the meaning of life is, which is, um, how do we, uh, become wiser, more intelligent, uh, more compassionate, et cetera? But that's because of the discovery of truths about these things that we share on this, this journey that we call life together.

   30. HSHarry Stebbings2:57

       Does AI make the discovery of truth harder or easier?
2. 3:37 – 8:16

   Established Brands Gain Value in AI Era

   1. RHReid Hoffman3:37

      maybe."

   2. HSHarry Stebbings3:37

      Do you think more value accrues to existing incumbent brands given the importance of verification in a new AI world? So, like-

   3. RHReid Hoffman3:45

      Mm-hmm.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings3:45

      ... The New York Times bec- becomes more valuable-

   5. RHReid Hoffman3:47

      Yeah.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings3:47

      ... because it is a validated source of truth, versus content creator called Sarah-

   7. RHReid Hoffman3:53

      Mm-hmm.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings3:53

      ... on Twitter who is not a validated source of truth?

   9. RHReid Hoffman3:56

      I would, to some degree, hope so. I mean, one of the things that I think that the kind of the libertarian kickoff of the internet has underplayed is that we need to have shared media be how we learn together. And so some of that is you need to say, it isn't just, you know, propositions in the wild that were, you know, a s- a thing is said, that you can, like, for example, get better from COVID by taking hydroxychloroquine. You know, like, like, you just, like, it's like, no, no, no. Just because that, that proposition is said, and said by the then president of the United States, doesn't mean that it has any scientific val- validity and isn't actually in fact destructive to your health. And so, um, uh, and so, I think that the, like, we need to have better sources of how are we collectively learning and what, and what ... Like, for example, when, when we, when we as human beings try to figure out how to get to truth, we use panels of human beings to do it. It's like a scientific panel, you know, kind of observing a study or deciding on a, on a, on a paper. It's a blue ribbon commission in trying to figure out what the facts are in a public circumstance. It's a jury in a criminal trial. We, we bring a group of people together, and that brings a set of balanced perspectives. We need to have that kind of thing, and we need to have the brands and institutions that reflect that kind of collective approach to discernment of truth so that, uh, we learn together. And I think that's the, that's, that's the worry of the-

   10. HSHarry Stebbings5:28

       I guess we only have those validatory boards of certification-

   11. RHReid Hoffman5:30

       Yes.

   12. HSHarry Stebbings5:31

       ... for large decisions.

   13. RHReid Hoffman5:32

       Yes.

   14. HSHarry Stebbings5:32

       Is Reid guilty or-

   15. RHReid Hoffman5:33

       Yes.

   16. HSHarry Stebbings5:34

       ... not guilty, if-

   17. RHReid Hoffman5:34

       Yes.

   18. HSHarry Stebbings5:34

       For all the mini/micro decisions-

   19. RHReid Hoffman5:36

       Yes.

   20. HSHarry Stebbings5:36

       ... we don't have those validatory sources of-

   21. RHReid Hoffman5:38

       Yes.

   22. HSHarry Stebbings5:38

       ... certification.

   23. RHReid Hoffman5:39

       And, and now we can in various ways. Like, we can a- amplify that way. So for example, you know, take for example, you know, questions around, like, oh, um, what's someone's professional CV? Well, you know, LinkedIn is working its way towards being a higher and higher source of, yes, if, if it's there, it's h- got a very high likelihood of being accurate.

   24. HSHarry Stebbings5:59

       Do you think ... So, uh, it was Gustav at Spotify.

   25. RHReid Hoffman6:01

       Yeah.

   26. HSHarry Stebbings6:01

       I know we have this scheduled.

   27. RHReid Hoffman6:02

       Yes.

   28. HSHarry Stebbings6:02

       We will see

   29. RHReid Hoffman6:02

       Oh, good. Yes, yes.

   30. HSHarry Stebbings6:03

       Um, he said that the number one thing that he looks for when hiring today is the quality of someone's prompts.
3. 8:16 – 22:35

   Foundation Models: Commoditisation, Business Models, Incumbents

   1. RHReid Hoffman8:16

      works.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings8:16

      Yeah. (laughs) Uh-

   3. RHReid Hoffman8:17

      Yes.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings8:17

      No, listen, I love that. Um, I, I do wanna start, we mentioned kind of using the tools well there.

   5. RHReid Hoffman8:22

      Yes, yes.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings8:22

      The, the thing that everyone says and I think that I, I see is the commoditization of the tools-

   7. RHReid Hoffman8:27

      Yeah. Yes.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings8:27

      ... in terms of especially the foundation models. Do you think that foundation models will become commoditized? And what do you think will be the end state for the foundation model there?

   9. RHReid Hoffman8:35

      So, the commoditization language is interesting language. I do think that it won't be that it's kinda like a gr- like grain of wheat or a pound of copper, you know, kind of in the classic thing. I think that foundation models will be different. They'll be different, like, there'll be this one, there'll be foundation model one, two, and three. They'll actually have somewhat different strengths and weaknesses. Like, some of the most interesting work that's being done right now is kind of comparing and contrasting Gemini with-

   10. HSHarry Stebbings9:04

       Mm-hmm.

   11. RHReid Hoffman9:04

       ... ChatGPT with, you know, uh, Copilot and Bing Chat, and it's kinda saying, "What..." 'Cause even between the OpenAI one, what are the differences? How do they operate? What are they good for?

   12. HSHarry Stebbings9:14

       Do you think teams can keep up with the progression of the LMS? Because I, I speak to founders often, they're like, "God-

   13. RHReid Hoffman9:19

       (laughs)

   14. HSHarry Stebbings9:19

       ... we almost need to hire someone full-time to do an analysis of the different changes in LLN providers just to keep up."

   15. RHReid Hoffman9:24

       That's not necessarily a bad thing, but part of the thing is to be choiceful about what your analyses are relative to what's important that you solve and understand that everything is changing at a fast pace. So if you say, for example, like, what I've heard from some people who've done analysis, Gemini is better at producing fiction, you know, OpenAI is better at the kind of Wikipedia-like reports. Like, okay, like, you know, but by the way, three months from now, that may- may be different.

   16. HSHarry Stebbings9:51

       Mm-hmm.

   17. RHReid Hoffman9:51

       Right? And so it's kinda like, like, that doesn't, that, me as a user that might say, if I'm trying to solve a certain kinda thing, like, if I'm trying to write a science fiction novel, maybe I'm gonna go to Gemini and, and work on that mostly. But by the way, of course, one of the things for products, for individual users, using multiple is good, 'cause that's where I was going with it, is it commoditized, is like, actually, in fact, I think there will still be differences, but I think our behavior both in creating products and as individuals will be almost more like kind of a conductor in an orchestra. It'll be like, well, you know, a little bit, you know, louder on the bass, a little bit softer on the cello, you know, as kind of a, as a, as, as a way of navigating. It won't be that they're all just vanilla, vanilla-y each other. Now, I do think because we have multiple ones that are competing with each other, there will be an intensity of providing it at low price, fast response, et cetera, because if provider one isn't working that well, I'll just go to provider two.

   18. HSHarry Stebbings10:48

       Question then, I think that actually we've all realized that actually cloud providers is the way to make money.

   19. RHReid Hoffman10:53

       Yeah.

   20. HSHarry Stebbings10:54

       And the cloud providers will buy out the LLMs and actually just integrate them as amazing products to add to their product suite.

   21. RHReid Hoffman11:00

       Yes.

   22. HSHarry Stebbings11:00

       What happens then? Because the only one that's too big to be acquired is OpenAI-

   23. RHReid Hoffman11:05

       Hmm.

   24. HSHarry Stebbings11:05

       ... given the price. But everyone else, even Mistral at five billion, that can still be acquired by Amazon.

   25. RHReid Hoffman11:10

       So I do think that every cloud provider, and frankly every scale software company, is gonna need to have a serious provision within, um, like, they'll want to have some internal teams and some internal talent doing things. It doesn't necessarily th- mean that everyone's doing frontier models, but because I think it's a blend of models that will be creating the, the quality of the highest tune, you know, cognitive services, the, the, the elevation of cognitive capability, I think that everyone's gonna need to participate. And so whether it's acquisitions, whether it's, you know, developing and refining open source models, whether it's, um, uh, building your own, I think you'll see all of them in that range.

   26. HSHarry Stebbings11:56

       Sam said, uh, that compute will be the single most defining currency of the next decade-

   27. RHReid Hoffman12:03

       Hmm.

   28. HSHarry Stebbings12:03

       ... in, in kind of some version of the words.

   29. RHReid Hoffman12:06

       Yeah.

   30. HSHarry Stebbings12:06

       How do you think about that?
4. 22:35 – 33:20

   Inflection & Microsoft: What Went Down

   1. RHReid Hoffman22:35

      question.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings22:35

      That is the real question, yeah.

   3. RHReid Hoffman22:36

      Yeah.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings22:37

      Uh, that's the challenging one. We, we spoke about kind of the different providers. I, I have to ask you, I had so many people suggest questions, and this is one I really wanted to talk about, which was the Inflection deal with Microsoft.

   5. RHReid Hoffman22:46

      Yeah.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings22:46

      How did that go down?

   7. RHReid Hoffman22:48

      Yep.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings22:48

      I love a story as well. Like-

   9. RHReid Hoffman22:49

      Yeah. (laughs)

   10. HSHarry Stebbings22:50

       ... does, does, like, Satya call you and go, like, "Ah, let's take this one"?

   11. RHReid Hoffman22:53

       So, um, Satya and Micro- and, and, um, uh, and Mustafa, um, had a conversation, and it was kinda funny 'cause both of them called me afterwards and said, "Oh, I had this really fascinating conversation about, you know, what is the kinda work we could do together. Do you think we should possibly do it? Think about this." And so I had separate conversations with both of them, 'cause obviously I'm on both boards. And then they said, "Well, should the next conversation be the three of us?" And I'm like, "No, I think I have to keep my hat separate."

   12. HSHarry Stebbings23:21

       Mm-hmm.

   13. RHReid Hoffman23:21

       Because I have to h- talk to Mustafa from a Greylock hat, from a Inflection board hat. I have to talk to Satya from a Microsoft public board member hat.

   14. HSHarry Stebbings23:30

       Mm-hmm.

   15. RHReid Hoffman23:31

       And I have to make sure that I'm, I'm playing each role effectively. And if I'm in the room, it's like (laughs) , you know, you can almost, like, bring two baseball caps and go, "Okay."

   16. HSHarry Stebbings23:39

       (laughs)

   17. RHReid Hoffman23:39

       "Okay. Okay." (laughs) Right? And it's like, it just doesn't quite work that way. So it's better to do that. And so they, um, in a set of conversations, kinda got to the position of saying, well, Mustafa had already been worried that the, that the notion of the massive increase of scale of frontier models was going to be beyond startup companies' ability to monetize with, um, an agent infrastructure. It was gonna take a long time for agent infrastructure to monetize. And he's like, "Look. We have this really great product, we have this really great agent, but if we're gonna keep pace with that, we're gonna be massively in the red-"

   18. HSHarry Stebbings24:18

       Yeah.

   19. RHReid Hoffman24:19

       "... for a long time, and yet that's what we really wanna ... We wanna make sure this great agent that really helps everyone is, is gonna continue and grow and thrive." And that was part of the, "Okay, well, maybe we could do that at Microsoft." While at Inflection, part of it was, we'd been thinking about, like, "Well, maybe the real business is around a, a AI studio, that you have a number of different models, some of which are custom-trained, like Inflection, other which are public, you know, open source models, and you're kind of being a B2B, you know, AI studio model." And so, 'cause that's what we had been thinking about doing with Inflection anyway given the economics of the business. So I was like, "Well, that business could then be funded by this transaction. The people who wanna build agents can contin- can go do it at Microsoft, and the people who wanna do B2B studio can stay with the company."

   20. HSHarry Stebbings25:03

       Sorry for being naive. Why did Microsoft do it? Because, like, the, the transience or kind of the decay rate of models is so fast.

   21. RHReid Hoffman25:11

       Yes.

   22. HSHarry Stebbings25:11

       It's not for the model.

   23. RHReid Hoffman25:12

       Yeah.

   24. HSHarry Stebbings25:13

       Are they ... Is it for the team?

   25. RHReid Hoffman25:14

       Well, the, the, look, there's a-... decay rate to the model, but the model is still valuable, right? Because part of the idea with Inflection, and still Inflection 2.5, there's, you know, a unique GBD-4 class model that is the best one that prioritizes emotional intelligence along with, you know, kind of analytic intelligence. So its EQ is as good as its IQ, and its IQ is pretty good. And so, um, and so yes, that, and by the way, that learning and so forth. But part of it was, of course, that one of the things that Microsoft was looking for is, year by year, how has CoPilot iterated into the kind of agent that is this new agentic universe, this new world that we all see coming. And Mustapha and Karen and some of the key team at, at Inflection, that's what they wanted to build. So it's like, "Okay, let's build that," and we're starting ... Their, their whole strategy is building on the, on the OpenAI models that, you know, Microsoft and OpenAI are already working on together.

   26. HSHarry Stebbings26:18

       Do you think that Inflection could've been a standalone business?

   27. RHReid Hoffman26:21

       Well, it is a standalone business as a B2B AI studio, um, but as an agent, it was v- ... it was a very risky proposition.

   28. HSHarry Stebbings26:29

       Again, what does it mean, like, a B2B AI studio?

   29. RHReid Hoffman26:32

       Well, so, um-

   30. HSHarry Stebbings26:33

       So modern enterprises can come in and-
5. 33:20 – 45:09

   OpenAI: Board, Lessons and Management

   1. HSHarry Stebbings33:20

      element. Um, I, I do have to ask, you know, when you think back to your time with OpenAI-

   2. RHReid Hoffman33:24

      Mm-hmm.

   3. HSHarry Stebbings33:24

      ... and on the board there, what are one or two of your biggest takeaways?

   4. RHReid Hoffman33:27

      You know, one of the things was very interesting, and I think Sam doesn't get enough credit for this. Um, Sam was very, uh, very much wanted to have a board that was separate governance from himself. A lot of founders tend to set up as though, "No, the board is my rubber stamp vehicle, I'm in control, I'm doing the stuff." And, and part of that, for example, was when Elon had announced to the company that he was leaving and not financing it anymore and, you know, blah, blah, blah. Um, and, you know, Sam called me and I said, "Look, I'll cover the salaries and I'll..." And he asked me if he could join the board and I said, "Yes, I'll join the board." And so then, um, he said, "Well, will you come to a fireside chat? 'Cause the company does... You know, only a few people here know you. Will you do that?" And I was like, "Sure, of course. You know, they sh- they should get to know me and we should have mutual trust." And literally one of the questions that Sam asked me that he hadn't prepared me for is, is we were sitting in this, in this, in this, you know, entire company meeting and he says, "So what happens if I'm not doing my job well?" And I'm like, "Well, I would work with you to try to improve it." He said, "No, but what happens if I keep not doing my job well?" I'm like, "Okay, well then I would fire you." And he's like, "Okay, great." I'm like, "You just asked me in front of the whole company would I fire you?" (laughs) You know, it's like, it's like, "Wh- well, th- this is a little strange." It's the only time I've ever been asked this question in any of my boards in front of a company thing. But it's reflecting what Sam, uh, has always been trying to do with the, with the OpenAI board, which is, it's a genuine independent governance board. Like, people don't realize, with all of the, what I thought was the, you know, the, the, the set of mistakes around the November-

   5. HSHarry Stebbings35:07

      Mm-hmm.

   6. RHReid Hoffman35:07

      ... debacle, that one of the positive attributes of that, that was because Sam had made an effort to say, "This is a separate governance board." Now, I think he was making too much of a AI safety, you know, kind of, who are the most AI safety people, make sure they're on the board. Some of those people should, of course, be on the board.

   7. HSHarry Stebbings35:28

      Yeah.

   8. RHReid Hoffman35:29

      But you also need to have good board knowledge, good, good, good knowledge about what are the kinds of things that a scaling company and a scaling organization, because by the way, it's a chaotic mess. That's part of what blitzscaling is about. And what things do you kinda go, "Okay, that's fine." You know, and what things you learn from and which things are important.

   9. HSHarry Stebbings35:49

      Brett Hayden's great.

   10. RHReid Hoffman35:50

       Yes.

   11. HSHarry Stebbings35:50

       I mean, total-

   12. RHReid Hoffman35:50

       Yes.

   13. HSHarry Stebbings35:50

       ... man crush on that guy.

   14. RHReid Hoffman35:51

       Yes.

   15. HSHarry Stebbings35:52

       Um, uh, you said that if things go wrong and it's blitzscaling, you know, you've got Scarlett Johansson. (laughs)

   16. RHReid Hoffman35:58

       (laughs)

   17. HSHarry Stebbings35:58

       Quite funny actually.

   18. RHReid Hoffman35:59

       Yeah.

   19. HSHarry Stebbings35:59

       I think that was hilarious. Um, you've got the super alignment team leaving, you've got the equity problem. I mean, there's blitzscaling and there's kind of like, "Oh."

   20. RHReid Hoffman36:08

       So, but this is the thing where-

   21. HSHarry Stebbings36:11

       Also, I hate people that, like, throw tomatoes from the back.

   22. RHReid Hoffman36:13

       Yeah.

   23. HSHarry Stebbings36:13

       I cannot imagine-

   24. RHReid Hoffman36:14

       Yes. Yes.

   25. HSHarry Stebbings36:14

       ... the intense stress and workload. But there is just a question of, like, that in a week is a lot.

   26. RHReid Hoffman36:19

       Well, look, that in a week is a lot, but by the way, you know, having done this, you know, at PayPal, having done this at LinkedIn, having done this at Airbnb, having done it, like, like all of this stuff, it's always a chaotic hot mess.

   27. HSHarry Stebbings36:37

       Is it?

   28. RHReid Hoffman36:37

       Yes. There's- And sometimes a lot of it happens in one week and sometimes it's different. And the real question is, how do you learn and adapt? Like, how do you go, "Okay, that was a screw up, now let's fix it and let's be better"?

   29. HSHarry Stebbings36:51

       Who was the best at learning and adapting when you look at those hot messes?

   30. RHReid Hoffman36:55

       Huh. Well, all of those are very good examples of ones that have done it very well because look at the, look at where the companies have become and what they've done. Um, I would say... I don't know if I could say best. There were different problems. I mean, like we had, you know, at PayPal, we had eBay trying to shut us down and that was where all our volume was. Um, we had, at Airbnb they had this very early, like, um, trust and safety thing where a person had stolen a credit card-... and literally totally trashed a place, right? Like, had a kind of like a drug party, you know, binge leaving the place in, like, not quite the equivalent of flaming ruins, but kind of, like, like, like, physically totally trashed. And so what do you do? 'Cause you need trust in a marketplace. So each of these things had a different emergency that you were like, "All hands on deck. We have to solve this and we're dead if we don't."
6. 45:09 – 56:58

   Trump is the Biggest Threat to Democracy

   1. RHReid Hoffman45:09

      side.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings45:09

      I totally get you and agree. Whi- while we're on kind of the world around us, I have many on the show, and I, I ask them 'cause I'm a naive Brit sitting in London, and I say, "The US elections, how do you think this plays out?" And every single person so far has said it's inevitable that Trump will win.

   3. RHReid Hoffman45:25

      So I'm glad to say that every single person so far is wrong.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings45:29

      Good.

   5. RHReid Hoffman45:30

      (laughs)

   6. HSHarry Stebbings45:30

      Great.

   7. RHReid Hoffman45:30

      Right. I actually think that... Look, I think part of the reason they're saying that is the American electorate right now hasn't really fully remembered the, uh, the corruption and incompetencies of Trump. Right? They, they, they, they're like, "Oh, the world is kind of a, a fragile place. I'm unhappy with how, you know, the fact there's all this global conflict. You know, I'm unhappy with the tragedy that's going on in Gaza," a stack of things. Um, "Because of the huge stimulus thing from, from COVID, you know, prices have gone up, and I'm unhappy that there's been an inflation of prices. So I'm kind of... I have some agitation, and completely legitimately agitation." So they're, "Well, I'm kind of agitated. Biden's president, I'm agitated." When people start remembering that, you know, uh, Donald Trump, uh, you know, uh, agitated for an insurrection that killed police officers, when they, uh, he was convicted by a jury that said, "Not only did you do sexual assault, but you slandered about it," in a jury thing.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings46:35

      (laughs)

   9. RHReid Hoffman46:35

      And they start... Like, it's a jury that can be...

   10. HSHarry Stebbings46:37

       It's not great. (laughs)

   11. RHReid Hoffman46:38

       Yes. Right. That, that can... When they begin to remember that, they will begin to get much more negative. So it isn't that it's a-

   12. HSHarry Stebbings46:44

       Are you overestimating the knowledge of the American populous?

   13. RHReid Hoffman46:47

       Uh, hope not. Uh, and, look, I think it's, I think there's real work ahead of us to remind people about what a, uh, Chernobyl Trump is. Uh, but I think if we successfully remind them, I think... And, and then also, by the way, you know, Biden has, Biden has pas- passed more, uh, bipartisan legislation than any president in decades. He has done stuff for the climate. He's done stuff on inflation reduction. Like, he, uh, has helped assemble the world on Ukraine.

   14. HSHarry Stebbings47:22

       Do you concede though that essentially by voting for Biden, you just vote for a very good administration around him? Because-

   15. RHReid Hoffman47:28

       Of course. But by the way, vote for any president, you're voting for-

   16. HSHarry Stebbings47:32

       Sure, but there's normally a leader, and Biden is not-

   17. RHReid Hoffman47:35

       Well, but Biden selects his staff. I mean, look, um, we have had a whole history of presidents, uh, where the staff is what does everything.

   18. HSHarry Stebbings47:46

       Mm-hmm.

   19. RHReid Hoffman47:46

       And he is the person who selects it. Look, I've had a two-hour lunch with Biden. Like, it's very popular to say, "Well, he's getting old, he's not cognitively with it." In a two-hour conversation, he was asking me questions about AI, he was explaining stuff that was going on in nuanced detail in Israel. You know, he was kind of saying, "Look, this is what I care about, your average worker, and this is what we need to be doing, and how can you, technology, industry, be helping the average worker?" Look, it was a two-hour robust conversation. He's good.

   20. HSHarry Stebbings48:15

       Good. (laughs)

   21. RHReid Hoffman48:16

       (laughs)

   22. HSHarry Stebbings48:16

       That is not what I normally have on the show, so it's nice to have a different opinion. Um, do you think that actually, when we look at some of the problems that you mentioned, do we think that AI does more to harm or to help income inequality moving forwards?

   23. RHReid Hoffman48:28

       There's almost a little bit of implicature in the question, that income equality is the most important feature. I think that AI will raise incomes, uh, both for, uh, working-class people and for, you know, middle-class people and for wealthier people.

   24. HSHarry Stebbings48:46

       Mm-hmm.

   25. RHReid Hoffman48:46

       I think it'll raise incomes across all of them. And so therefore, I'm actually, in fact, quite positive on that, and I can make arguments for how AI provides productivity increases and, and is positive on each of these levels.

   26. HSHarry Stebbings49:00

       Yeah.

   27. RHReid Hoffman49:00

       Uh, now there's some jobs when we'll just want the AI only to be doing it versus the human. So for example, you know, driving. We actually want AIs driving, because they don't get drunk, they don't get tired, they have a lot more sensors to pay attention to the world around them. Like, they can have LiDAR and infrared, so they can see the kid who is running out from behind the parked car, whereas a human can't. There's all kinds of reasons why we would want that. Those jobs change, right? But-... in each of these cases, like for example, if you look at, um, like one of, of Greylock's portfolio companies, Cresta, did a study of, of which people in the customer service, um, were most benefited by early AI and it was the entry level people. It was the people coming in, right? And learning the job much more quickly. And that's- that's a pattern that you can see across this. So, I think it's beneficial across the entire thing. Now, the inequality question is, I think, a much more, uh, fraught question b- for the following reason, which is, I don't know of any human society organization where we don't run on the basis of inequality. Right? Like, you know, better investor, worst investor, better entrepreneur, worst en- entrepreneur, better business, worst inve- you know, getting into college, et cetera, et cetera. We run... Our entire human society runs on inequality. Even places ostensibly communist, you know, like, who's in charge? Who gives- give other people orders? Et cetera. Like, human beings are tribal creatures, so we have inequality inherently in the system and we try to orient it so that people can, through hard work and talent and everything else, rise up as much. And I think that op- equality of opportunity and equality of ability to- to make amazing things of themselves, like you with 20VC, is a really, really good thing. And so- but the end result is inequality. Then you say, "Well, but how much inequality is too much?" Well, obviously there's an answer to how much inequality is too much. When it's like, well, I now am the autocratic ruler, like say I'm Putin and I say, "Half of the country belongs t- oh, I own, and belongs to me and everyone has to do what I say or I kill them." Okay, that would be a problem.

   28. HSHarry Stebbings51:11

       (laughs)

   29. RHReid Hoffman51:12

       (laughs) Right? And so there's problems, but it's like- well, like for example, people say, "Well, but a CEO shouldn't make more than 20 times what the entry level..." And it's like, where do you get your magic number?

   30. HSHarry Stebbings51:22

       Well, it's also like then it just breeds like the most-
7. 56:58 – 1:02:23

   Should the US Ban ByteDance?

   1. RHReid Hoffman56:58

      my society.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings56:58

      Two company-specific ones, and then we're gonna do-

   3. RHReid Hoffman57:00

      Yeah.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings57:00

      ... a really cool Read AI.

   5. RHReid Hoffman57:01

      Yes.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings57:01

      Um, you mentioned ByteDance earlier.

   7. RHReid Hoffman57:04

      Mm.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings57:04

      I'm so sorry for the base question. Should it be banned? Is it a threat to US democracy?

   9. RHReid Hoffman57:09

      I don't think that it is an unusual threat to US democracy, um, although I do think that one of the things that, um... Look, I think that the, the key question is, is, um, uh, you know, China bans Western, you know, kinda social media and other, uh, companies with it. So I think it's not an unfair thing to say, "Hey, look, if you're banning ours, we can ban yours." I think it's, I think that's the, the baseline of the kinda the fairness side. Now that being said, you know, part of the Chinese, uh, approach to these things is they view that all of their companies essentially work for their governments. Now, they think that's true of the West too. They don't realize no actually in fact, we, we operate differently. Like, Google does not work for the US government. Microsoft does not work for the US government. There is, there's ways they're accountable by law, but they have to go through a legal process for that kinda thing. And so given that a legal process doesn't exist within China, one worries about what security vulnerabilities and other things that happens because the companies don't have the kind of autonomy that our companies have, that they have, where, for example, they can sue and say, "No, we're not gonna respond to this, this subpoena or this request from the government because we think that's an illegal order," which you can't really do (laughs) in China.

   10. HSHarry Stebbings58:30

       (laughs)

   11. RHReid Hoffman58:30

       And so, so that kinda thing does prevent, present a possible concern and risk. I don't think... I don't have any data that suggests that they're doing anything right now on it, but it's possible. And so you wanna, you wanna close down that possibility. Now, you know, the, what the US government proposed was to say, "Get to a form of governance that is not the Chinese form of governance, that is, that is within the Western system." Divesting is a version of that. Like, if they became a, the, if US, you know, TikTok, ByteDance became a public company, gover- you know, launched on, you know, the NASDAQ or something else-

   12. HSHarry Stebbings59:09

       Sure.

   13. RHReid Hoffman59:09

       ... that would give it the kind of governance that would say, "Okay, great. We understand that the governance is by, um, you know, kind of public rule of law, not potentially corruptible by a government that doesn't have that public rule of law." And that's a good place to be.

   14. HSHarry Stebbings59:26

       Totally. What do you think happens?

   15. RHReid Hoffman59:28

       Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election because they presume that, uh, Trump could get bought off by investors, um, since, you know, he's a coin-operated, uh, person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.

   16. HSHarry Stebbings59:45

       He is not.

   17. RHReid Hoffman59:46

       (laughs)

   18. HSHarry Stebbings59:46

       He did a great Domino's Pizza advert.

   19. RHReid Hoffman59:48

       (laughs)

   20. HSHarry Stebbings59:49

       When Did you see that one?

   21. RHReid Hoffman59:50

       No.

   22. HSHarry Stebbings59:50

       (laughs) It's from the '90s. It's brilliant.

   23. RHReid Hoffman59:52

       (laughs) Yes.

   24. HSHarry Stebbings59:52

       It's really very good.

   25. RHReid Hoffman59:53

       But he is completely coin-operated.

   26. HSHarry Stebbings59:55

       Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

   27. RHReid Hoffman59:55

       (laughs) Right? And so, um-

   28. HSHarry Stebbings59:58

       (laughs)

   29. RHReid Hoffman59:58

       ... you know, self coin-operated. Like, you know, it's to some degree it's like that Churchill line, you know, it's, it's, it's not that, um, uh, it- it's not insulting that he's, he's for sale, it's that he's for sale for so cheap.

   30. HSHarry Stebbings1:00:12

       (laughs)
8. 1:02:23 – 1:17:35

   Quick-Fire Round

   1. HSHarry Stebbings1:02:23

      (laughs)

   2. RHReid Hoffman1:02:23

      Yes. Yes.

   3. HSHarry Stebbings1:02:24

      Now, we're gonna do very different. So I'm gonna get, uh, ReadAI, and then how do you wanna do this? Do you want me to ask you, you can answer it first and then watch? Or do you wanna watch first?

   4. RHReid Hoffman1:02:33

      Uh, why don't we watch first just because then I'll both put my answer and my commentary on the ReadAI answer together. Yeah.

   5. HSHarry Stebbings1:02:41

      Okay. Yes, what have you changed your mind on most? So I- I can hand it to you-

   6. RHReid Hoffman1:02:46

      Yes. Yes.

   7. HSHarry Stebbings1:02:46

      ... and you can hit play.

   8. RHReid Hoffman1:02:47

      Yes. Yes, great. Absolutely. Okay. Well, here we go.

   9. NANarrator1:02:50

      I've changed my mind on how fast generative AI is advancing. I initially thought significant breakthroughs in creative fields would take longer. But AI tools have rapidly evolved in writing, art, and music.

   10. RHReid Hoffman1:03:03

       So on this one, it's funny. It's almost like you could accuse ReadAI of being, like, the wise person with the elephant of, like, because it's an AI it's like, "What I've most changed my mind on is AI and how it's accelerating." And it's like, nope, actually I haven't changed my mind on AI stuff in the last 12 years. Um, not 12 years, 12 months, one year. Uh, 12 years, yes, I have changed my mind. And, uh, I would say that my answer to this question would be... it's almost much more of the response to AI because while I, and I think I'm confident that this will still happen, but, like, trying to get people to see the positive sides of like... Like it's like, look, most people are like, "Oh my god, I, why are we doing this AI stuff? It's dangerous." Like, risk discourse, risk discourse. Like look, we have amazing things in front of us, and that's why it's worth navigating the risk. And the slowness by which persuading journalists, academics, other people to say, "Hey, look..." By the way, um, your discourse around AI is like the discourse when the printing press was launched. People would say, "It spreads misinformation." You're like, "Okay. By the way, the printing press was a good thing, you might have noticed."

   11. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:23

       Sure.

   12. RHReid Hoffman1:04:23

       So let's think about what could possibly go right. And the slowness by which they're getting to what could possibly go right, I'm, uh, you know.

   13. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:33

       I think we just have this kind of propensity to be negative-

   14. RHReid Hoffman1:04:36

       (laughs) Yes.

   15. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:36

       ... in a lot of ways, humanity. Okay, so we're gonna go for, uh, the biggest misconception over the next 10 years.

   16. RHReid Hoffman1:04:43

       Okay.

   17. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:45

       Okay?

   18. RHReid Hoffman1:04:45

       Yeah.

   19. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:45

       You can...

   20. RHReid Hoffman1:04:46

       Yeah, yep.

   21. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:46

       It's like showing yourself your report card.

   22. RHReid Hoffman1:04:48

       (laughs) Yes.

   23. NANarrator1:04:49

       The biggest misconception is that AI will completely replace human jobs. In reality, AI will augment human capabilities, transforming jobs and creating new opportunities we can't even imagine yet.

   24. RHReid Hoffman1:05:02

       So I broadly agree with this one. Uh-

   25. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:04

       Okay.

   26. RHReid Hoffman1:05:04

       ... so I guess ReadAI's gonna answer AI as the answer in each of your questions-

   27. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:07

       (laughs)

   28. RHReid Hoffman1:05:07

       ... clearly. Once more, the wise person and the elephant. But I do think that what people kind of presume is that with the massive increase in cognitive capability that that will just kinda create, you know, since we're in Britain, a bunch of people on the dole.

   29. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:21

       Mm-hmm.

   30. RHReid Hoffman1:05:21

       You know, kind of in bread lines. And actually, in fact, I think what it's doing is transforming a lot of jobs. And just as we discussed, you know, kind of learning how to do prompts and learning how to do it, that will be an essential tool, like, for example, if you, you know, ask people to say, you know, uh, like, even m- most jobs require some facility to do with reading. And so, yes, you'll have to, you have to, you'll have to be able to use these tools in some useful way. But I think there will be lots of new and interesting human jobs.

Episode duration: 1:25:41