Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189

1. 0:00 – 1:13

   Intro

   1. SMShaun Maguire0:00

      I think there's a huge difference between having freedom of speech, being willing to use it, and having lots of information warfare. I don't think we had freedom of speech before Elon bought Twitter. I think we're moving away from free speech very quickly in Europe. The modern paradigm of DEI is toxic, woke etiology that is literally cancer for society. The Iranian philosophy when you're losing is to create chaos, so they're creating as much chaos in the world as they possibly can. The war in Ukraine where America could not have botched the initial response more-

   2. HSHarry Stebbings0:31

      Is Donald Trump the best chance we have of alleviating the soon-to-be World War III in the Middle East?

   3. SMShaun Maguire0:38

      100%.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings0:39

      Why? Ready to go? (instrumental music plays) Sean, I am so excited for this, dude. Listen, I've wanted to do this one for so many years. I've heard so many great things. Doug Leone goes to me before this, "Sean is the most interesting man I've ever met." I was like, "Whoa. Shit." (laughs)

   5. SMShaun Maguire1:06

      Impossible.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings1:08

      But thank you so much for joining me, man.

   7. SMShaun Maguire1:10

      Hey, it's great to be here. Thank you, Harry. I'm a big fan.

2. 1:13 – 3:55

   From High School Dropout to Caltech PhD

   1. SMShaun Maguire1:13

   2. HSHarry Stebbings1:13

      Listen, first question, dude. How did you go from a high school dropout to a PhD at Caltech? That's quite a jump.

   3. SMShaun Maguire1:20

      With a big chip on my shoulder. Um, yeah, I mean, look, as a kid, I, I was- I wasn't stupid, but I really hated school and hated my teachers, and, you know, I went to public school. I got a zero on my first Algebra II test for not showing any work. The teacher wouldn't- wouldn't change their mind. Like, I offered to show my work, et cetera, um, and once I got a zero on that exam, like, the highest grade I could get in the class was a C, and at that point it's just like, "I'm done with school. I'm just gonna go learn stuff on my own, uh, be on my computer," and I did that, and then I kind of hacked my way out by doing this thing called the California High School Proficiency Exam. It's basically a test you can take that lets you leave high school early, and then I went to community college for two years and transferred and... Uh, because of that experience, I, I wanted to show that teacher that I can actually do math, and they were wrong, and I guess the ultimate culmination there is getting a math PhD.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings2:26

      When you're at community college in between and you have nothing to show, you have no forms of success that you can go, "Well, look at me. I've done this," did you always feel that you would be successful and that it was inevitable and that you just needed to prove it, or were you genuinely questioning yourself in those years?

   5. SMShaun Maguire2:39

      I mean, look, I think that's a natural response when you're, like, a teenager and you don't know that much about how the world works, and I was nervous. You know, and my parents, to their credit, they made me work from a young age, and s- so I had worked, like, on construction sites for two summers carrying wood, like literally carrying wood around, and I had also, um, worked in a surf store, Jack's Surfboards in Orange County, California in, in two different stores, like, folding T-shirts when people would, uh, you know, they'd go try on clothes and then I'd have to fold it up right behind them. It was, that was the worst job I've ever had. I vastly preferred carrying wood. At least I was learning Spanish and was outside and stuff. But when you've had those experiences, it's very, very motivating. Like, I did, I did not want to be stuck folding T-shirts the rest of my life, um, but on the other hand... So, so like, while having the self-doubt, I did have a lot of confidence. Like, I knew that I was smart, um, I had been. I was a computer hacker as a kid, and when you're a hacker, you just, you learn this mentality that you will always find a way in. You will always find a trapdoor, a back door, a side door. If you have to parachute onto the roof, like, whatever it is, you'll find a way in. And so I had that in the back of my mind, that I'll find loopholes

3. 3:55 – 5:29

   The Time at DARPA

   1. SMShaun Maguire3:55

      to get in.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings3:56

      You know me, dude. In terms of- (laughs)

   3. SMShaun Maguire3:58

      Keep going, keep going.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings4:00

      In terms of finding loopholes, uh, I did my research before this, and I, I heard that you were a spy and worked at DARPA. You also got deployed to Afghanistan. Can you take me to maybe how that shaped you in such a meaningful way given the impact that it is on any person? How did that time shape you?

   5. SMShaun Maguire4:19

      I worked at DARPA and I deployed to Afghanistan. I was never a spy. For me, because I had such a weird academic background, if I enlisted in the Army or in the Navy or whatever, I would just get the worst job possible. I mean, sure, there's IQ tests and you can go try to become a SEAL or something like that, but if you don't make it, you're gonna get a really bad job. And so I had this... I wanted to have, like, service, but I didn't know the right way to do it, and then I met this woman named Regina Dugan who was, she was running DARPA at the time, and she was trying basically an experimental program of, like, let's just go find some really smart, crazy young people and give them basically unprecedented access, like, you know, like, I mean, gen- genuinely insane access, you know, regular meetings with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and, um, you know, ability to... Blackhawk helicopters to take you around and... And, look, there's a lot of evil in the world. Like, there's real evil in the world, and I think a lot of people just don't, they can't process that. People today in the West cannot fathom that there is real evil in the world, and I can tell you very certainly that, like, there is evil.

4. 5:29 – 10:21

   The Most Real Evil in The World Today

   1. SMShaun Maguire5:29

   2. HSHarry Stebbings5:29

      What is the most real evil in the world today, do you think?

   3. SMShaun Maguire5:32

      I think the most real evil right now is probably the Iranian regime. Like, the Iranian regime is happy to oppress their own people. My wife's a Persian Jew. Her family's from Iran. They left in the revolution in '79. They're happy to oppress their own people. They're happy to oppress the people, you know, of Gaza. They're happy to oppress the, you know, the people of Israel. Something that people don't realize about Iran but-... uh, Iran is deeply responsible in the global drug trade. Like, the global drug trade would not be anything close to what it is today if it weren't for Iran. Like, like, the cartels in Colombia and Venezuela basically report into Iran. Iran is- handles most of the money laundering for them and coordination, uh, processing of a lot of, like, the precursor chemicals, stuff like that. Um, look, like, when Russia invaded Ukraine, for the first year or so, a lot of the munitions were coming from Iran, and anyways, it's, it- it's, you know, when A- when America was fighting in Afghanistan, Iran was, like, deeply supporting the Taliban. Iran ... So, I'm gonna- evil, there's different perspectives to what is evil, and I will just say that, this is a weird analogy, have you ever played backgammon?

   4. HSHarry Stebbings6:51

      Yeah, of course.

   5. SMShaun Maguire6:52

      Wh- in backgammon, when you're losing, like, when you're behind, the optimal strategy is to create chaos. Like, if you're losing by a lot, you keep a lot of your pieces open. You wanna create chaos. You wanna make it so that someone will likely hit you. The way that y- the only way you have a chance of coming back when you're really far behind is to create chaos, and, you know, Iran basically created backgammon, the Persian Empire, you know, a millennia ago or whatever, and, like, that's the Iranian philosophy when you're losing, is to create chaos, so they're creating as much chaos in the world as they possibly can.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings7:26

      What would you do differently in terms of US, you know, activity that you are not doing today?

   7. SMShaun Maguire7:32

      For the US specifically, I think that the Obama administration and then now, like, Kerry re- reinvigorated by the Biden-Harris administration, they've had the- literally the worst possible Iran policy, which has been appeasement, believing that they can, like, turn Iran through nice words and actions. They've been ... You know, so Trump froze most assets of Iran that he could, had deep sanctions against them, made it hard for them to sell oil, made it hard for them to operate in the global economy, basically had them financially on the brink of collapse, and the Biden-Harris administration immediately went back to the Obama doctrine of, "Let's just sit 'em down at the n- negotiation table. Let's unfreeze all their funds. Let's remove all the sanctions. If we treat them well, then of course they'll come into our fold." And so, uh, to take that even one step further, like, there's obviously ancient rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Uh, you know, Iran is the ancient seat of Shia Islam and Saudi as the, kind of, origin of Islam but a- you know, the, kind of, modern, the modern, uh, hub of Sunni Islam. There's this ancient, ancient rivalry. We have- somehow when, when Biden came in, he was very tough on Saudi Arabia and very loose on Iran. From my perspective, Saudi Arabia, despite what the media says, Saudi Arabia has been modernizing at an unbelievable rate. I'm personally a big fan of MBS. I think he's been a fantastic reformer. Sure, Jamal Khashoggi was a horrible, horrible thing, but just if you look at the rate of progress, Saudi has been unbelievable. 25 years ago, Saudi was the number one funder of madrasas and, or, or, sorry, of, of Muslim Brotherhood and, like, the Wahhabist madrasas. Today, there's very little of that in, in Saudi, and Iran is at the root of almost all chaos in the region, and so I just- I find it crazy that- wh- when Biden came in, he- one of his first statements was condemning MBS, saying he won't meet with MBS, et cetera, and these things are gifts to Iran. They show Iran that they can just keep pushing and pushing. I'll take this one step further. Since October 7th, Iran has carried out- Iranian proxies have carried out over 300 attacks against US soldiers, um, you know, on US bases or ships in the region. Like, (sniffs) directly attacked US interests over 300 times, and despite that, the US is still releasing funds that had been frozen back to Iran. Like, these things are insane. It's- it's honestly in- the policy's been insane.

5. 10:21 – 18:39

   Is Donald Trump the Key to Preventing WWIII?

   1. SMShaun Maguire10:21

   2. HSHarry Stebbings10:21

      Is Donald Trump the best chance we have of alleviating the either current World War III or soon to be World War III in the Middle East?

   3. SMShaun Maguire10:32

      100%.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings10:34

      Why? 'Cause honestly, Shaun, I want this show to be, like, very honest for me. Like, I don't know (laughs) anywhere near what you know, but I speak to a lot of people and some say 100% and some say he is erratic and with the power that he has, that erratic nature just creates more volatility.

   5. SMShaun Maguire10:50

      And I wanna be clear. When I say 100%, I mean compared to Biden-Harris administration. I don't mean compared to all possible options. You know, I wrote this long ex post eight years ago. I was incredibly afraid of Trump, and, you know, voted for Hillary and donated to Hillary, and four years ago I didn't vote, um, because I didn't like either option. Things that have really changed my mind here are, one, I mean, like if you go back to 2016, the number one reason why I was afraid of Trump was because in 2016 he was supported by Russia. Like, Russia wanted Trump to win and they wanted Hillary to lose, and that manifested as, like, there were all these fake news, you know, bot farms putting out content on Facebook. Their- w- w- Hillary Clinton's emails got hacked and then released in kind of two-step process at the worst possible times like, you know, the bulk in October right before the election, and from my perspective is- given what I've done in the past and working in intelligence and stuff like this, when your enemy or when Russia wants Trump to get elected so badly and i- and, like, concurrent to that there was the Steele dossier and stuff like this, I thought that ... I believed the lie. I believed the mer- the media narrative that Trump was corrupted.... that he was owned by Russia, and if, if he wasn't, that it'd be easy for them to own him, and that he had no experience in foreign policy and, like, would just make all the wrong decisions. If you look at what actually happened, I think that Trump was the best president in the modern era, uh, at dealing with Russia, the best at dealing with Iran, the best at dealing with China. I'll give you a couple examples, one for each. With Russia, there's this famous NATO breakfast video where Trump- this was a few years ago, five years ago or so. Trump sitting down, like, at a NATO breakfast, he's meeting with the kind of top German diplomats, and he goes off on them for a few minutes and says, like, "You guys are making every mistake possible. You're owned by Russia." He says, you know, "Your energy supply is owned by Russia," and he says, you know, that, "I- I believe it's 2% that, basically that you're, you're supposed to spend 2% of your GDP on defense. Like, that is the, what's laid out in the NATO guidelines, and you're only spending 1.2%. You know, America is subsidizing you guys by spending 4% on defense. If you don't fix, fix this, like, Russia's gonna invade, um, and you won't be able to do anything about it." He lays all this out, and the German diplomats are laughing at him. They're literally laughing to his face. They're smirking these arrogant smirks and just laughing at him, and that, I think, is just symbolic for how the liberal elites treated Trump on everything of, like, this guy was out there saying the actual truth and predicting the future, but because the media was so anti-Trump and these liberal elites were so clueless, they were just happy to laugh in his face and believe their lies. One other, like, without going into Iran and China, as we've talked about this a bit.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings14:01

      Does that not prove his ineffectiveness? I mean, that is not a story of effectiveness of Trump's diplomacy, though. If they're laughing in his face and he's letting it happen, it's like-

   7. SMShaun Maguire14:08

      I think that that proves the failure of European policy and of the left's policy. I think that if you... So I think that, sure, with Russia, he was not effective at convincing Europe to, to actually do the right thing. With Iran and China, Trump had more unilateral abilities, and Trump just did the right things. Like, with Iran, he sanctioned the shit out of them, and he froze their funds and, you know, he had deep partnerships. He got Abraham Accords for Israel, which weakened, which weakened Iran's hand in the region meaningfully, on and on and on. And so I think at least Trump knew what needed to be done. Uh, I think that the Obama foreign policy carried on by Biden-Harris, like, they don't even know what to be done, and if I were to try to put it in simple words, like, there's, or in simple terms, way that Western diplomacy works, like when England and America are doing diplomacy in the 1960s, if Harry and Doug go and sit down in a room and argue about what the terms of some deal should be and get to the end of it and look each other in the eye and say, you know, "Okay, these are the terms. We have a deal, right?" And you look each other in the eye and you shake hands, like, in this backdoor dealing, like, that should be it. That deal should be, like, crystallized and should actually be uphold. In the West, your word is your bond. In the East, when you're dealing with Iran, you look the Ayatollahs in the eye. They'll tell you, "Yeah, we're gonna shut down our nuclear program." Like, "Yes, we're not gonna invade Israel," et cetera. They'll tell you all this stuff, but it means nothing. It means absolutely nothing. In the East, like, your word means nothing, and all that matters is, like, what actions are you capable of and what will you actually do? And Trump is the only American leader that has understood that. All of these other ones think that you can just go reason with people, and if they say, look you in the eye and say that they're gonna do something, that they'll actually do it, and it's, we've been banging our head against the wall on this topic for, you know, 50 years, and, and we need to, we need to learn from it.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings16:26

      Sure. What would Trump do in response, though, now? He comes in in the election. How would he quell it?

   9. SMShaun Maguire16:32

      In... So what's happening in the Middle East or where?

   10. HSHarry Stebbings16:36

       Middle East and then Russia.

   11. SMShaun Maguire16:38

       In the Middle East, basically it depends when he comes in. Like, if he were to come in today, the wild card that needs to be dealt with is Iranian nuclear program, and allegedly, they, they have just recently obtained nuclear weapons. Like, you get a different answer based on whether you want to deal with those nuclear weapons or not. Like, if you don't care about the nuclear weapons and you're just gonna accept a new world where Iran has nuclear weapons, then basically what you do is you, uh, like, this, this is gonna sound crazy, but basically you force a ceasefire, uh, between Israel and Hamas in exchange for a peace agreement with Saudi, between Saudi and Israel. Uh, Saudi gets cyber weapons and technology as a result. Um, you know, Saudi will, on a few year timeframe, take over a bunch of the policing responsibilities of, of Gaza, and I'm giving you just the very, very skeleton outline. Like, if you want to go the path of removing nuclear weapons from Iran, then we're at the point now where there has to be war. So when Biden-Harris came in, you didn't, Iran did not have nuclear weapons, you did not have to do that, but now if you think that, that it's too destabilizing for them to have weapons, nuclear weapons going forward, then there basically has to be war, and so that is... I'm not the president, so that's not my decision to make, but-... I think that if you were to go back in time three years, Trump had exactly the right policy to avoid all of this, which was weakening Iran, preventing them from getting nuclear weapons, as the top two, and then, uh, creating more anchored stability in the region through the Abraham Accords and having peace agreements between Israel and the strong regional

6. 18:39 – 20:02

   Are We Already in World War III? How Would It Differ from Past Wars?

   1. SMShaun Maguire18:39

      pl- players.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings18:40

      Are we at war already? You tweeted the other day about being in World War III.

   3. SMShaun Maguire18:43

      Yeah.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings18:43

      And if so, does World War III, how does that look? It is fundamentally different to our preconceived ideas of World War I and II, cyber being obviously one of the biggest.

   5. SMShaun Maguire18:53

      The calco is very simple from an Iranian perspective, and also, I think, from, like, an Israeli perspective. It's basically, from an Iranian perspective, if they knew that Kamala Harris was gonna win, then they will happily wait six months for her to be in office, uh, and then go do whatever they wanna do. If they think that Trump is gonna win, then they need to do whatever they wanna do now. Like, they are very, very afraid of Trump and his ability to retaliate strongly. Um, and so whether or not war is inevitable, I would not say it's inevitable, and I think a lot of it, it's, like, if you... The poly market election odds as they fluctuate, like, so does the, you know, the odds of a larger regional war. I think it's unlikely to be World War III. I think it would just be a very big regional war. I, like, for it to be World War III, you'd have to have, like, China and the US directly involved with each other, and I think that's extremely unlikely

7. 20:02 – 30:00

   The Election Swing: From Trump's Bravery to Kamala's Victory

   1. SMShaun Maguire20:02

      right now.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings20:03

      You said there's two different kind of outcomes that could happen or two different pathways that one could take dependent on who is, you know, ultimately wins the election. We had Trump in a post-assassination attempt in the most unbelievable sh- sign of bravery and iconic image of political power in the last, uh, I don't know, 100 years. And everyone was like, "Trump has won. What an image of ultimate bravery." And now here we sit here a couple of weeks later, and you've tweeted about the swing that Kamala's seen, and everyone now tells me, "No, no, no. She's won it. Like, Trump is defeated." Can you help me understand where we're at?

   3. SMShaun Maguire20:38

      I think it's about 50/50, uh, and that's not a cop out. Like, that's what I actually think are the rough odds. Um, but I think a... Candidly, I think a big factor in that is just how much better the Democrats are at the kinda mail-in ballot, ballot harvesting groundwork. Um, like, I think that will be the dominant variable in this election, by far, you know, in the li-... And, and, uh, I mean, that's technically legal in most places. And the last election happened at an extremely large scale. Um, you know, in the last US election, there were about 30 million more votes for the top two candidates than there were in the election before, and, like, that was not... That was at the peak of COVID in an uninspiring election. You know, a lot of that was basically there was a new tactic invented of, of, like, as there are more ball- more mail-in ballots available, there were kind of creative, again, and, like, for the most part, very legal, um, but very creative tactics used to go and, like, register people to vote at old homes if they were gonna vote one way and then, you know, either driving them in on buses, you know, in swing states to vote.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings22:01

      Do you think there's validity to Trump's statement of the unfairness of the election?

   5. SMShaun Maguire22:05

      I think that this is the most... Of all of the topics I've ever tried to comment on, this is the one that has the most landmines, and I've commented on some very spicy things. Um, but look, I'm at a point where, um, like, I care about America, and so I'm just gonna say what I think has to be said even if it's unpopular. You know, when I wrote this long X post, I tried to frame it... So the, the number one thing that people use to deposition Trump, the number one thing is January 6th. Like, that is by far the number one thing. All right, Harry. I'm gonna, I'm gonna give you, I'm gonna give you the goods. Um, so the number one thing people try to do to deposition Trump is January 6th. I tried to frame it in my X post in a very different way, which is back in 2016, Hillary Clinton said that the election was stolen, you know, against her, and it was stolen, you know, for Trump through Russian interference, and I gave you, like, two examples of, you know, fake news, bot farms, and hacking emails. That's not direct voter interference, but it was, like, pretty significant kind of mind changing and, and changing whether, people's motivation to go out and vote and all that. So Hillary to this day still says that the 2016 election was stolen. I agree with her. Like, I, I really do. I think that there was unbelievable tampering in that election, and there... Something, I'll get here in a second, but something that I have learned firsthand, like, I worked in the DOD for a while. I had very high clearance for a long time, and on these most controversial topics on the election in particular, there's this kinda crazy phenomenon where if you go ask people, like, "Hey, can we look into this?" People say, "No. You cannot look into whether the election was stolen or not." They will not let you, and the reason why, and I think this is semi-legitimate, but, like, the reason why is if we find that the election was stolen-... that is so undermining of our democratic process that people won't even let you go look for it. Um, and so Hillary to this day still says the 2016 election was stolen. She, like, Hillary says that. Hillary's pretty smart, pretty experienced. I respect Hillary a lot. Um, and then Trump, he also says it. I think there's a pretty extreme double standard that Hillary is allowed to say it and Trump is not, especially in an election where there were 30 million more votes for the top two candidates. You know, it's a 22% increase for the top two. That's, like, statistically by far the largest jump, like, in the modern era. Yeah.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings25:02

      But I think people kind of blame Trump not for his statement of there being, you know, um, uh, unfair election, but for inciting the violence and for encouraging violence and an uprising around it.

   7. SMShaun Maguire25:13

      I'll get there. I'll get there. Um, I think that the two are deeply linked and Trump questioned the election a lot. Um, in my opinion, I do think that there were extreme irregularities in the 2020 election, and as a former cyber person who did the most advanced cyber in the US government, um, there was an extremely large hack happening during the election called SolarWinds, which my company was deeply involved in investigating and remediating. And there are other cyber experts that disagree with me, but I personally believe that SolarWinds could have been used to directly tamper with the election results, and I have tried to flag that at least three or four different ways, and nobody will take it seriously. And some people have told me directly that they can't look into it because if they found that it indeed did happen, it would be so damaging for democracy that they just can't even look into it. And when that is the philosophy, when the philosophy is like we can't even investigate if there was real fraud or malfeasance, then you're never gonna know the answer, and I just, for me as an American, I think that if that's our philosophy, we're never gonna get to the truth and we might have vulnerable elections going forward. And so even having this level of view is, like, puts me at great jeopardy. And I don't mean from a physical perspective, but just like, this is such a controversial topic that people struggle to hear my words and, and hear that like, I'm not saying directly that it was stolen. I don't know for sure. But I think that... I do know for sure that people were unwilling to look into credible paths to which it may have been stolen. Um, and I also know that there's a double standard for when Hillary says that 2016 was stolen versus Trump in 2020. Uh, and then with January 6th, January 6th was a horrible day, like absolutely horrible day. I wish it didn't happen. Um, but I think that if you go beyond what Hillary did in 2016, I don't think that Trump did much more to incite the January 6th insurrection than what Hillary did of, of denying the election results. And, and so I just, I think that the drawing the conclusion from what Trump said to January 6th I think is, uh, is not as bulletproof of an argument, in my opinion, as I think people make it out to be.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings27:57

      Listen, there are a lot of parties who stand to gain from different sides winning this next election. Iran would heavily like a Harris win. I think Putin would heavily like a Trump win. Um, my question to you, is the next election not just as vulnerable to foreign parties having an impact?

   9. SMShaun Maguire28:13

      Of course it is, and that's why, that's why I'm saying it's... like, I can't predict it, and I don't even think the Polymarket odds or any of the odds are that reflective 'cause I don't think that they price in, like, nation state activity or cheating, um, effectively.

   10. HSHarry Stebbings28:31

       Who is the biggest threat from a nation state activity cheating?

   11. SMShaun Maguire28:34

       No comment right now. The civilian population really misunderstands and underestimates, like, how much spy activity and, like, cheating there is in the world, and just, there was a really crazy anecdote that came out about ten days ago or so. I don't know if you saw this, but basically, in the prisoner swap with Russia for Evan, uh, Gershowitz, the Wall Street Journal reporter, two of the spies that got returned to Russia had been, like, literally out of The Americans TV show. They had been deep, deep undercover, pretending that they're an Argentinean couple, and they had two children, and their children flew back to Russia with them as part of the prisoner swap. The children did not know they're Russian. They had no idea of their Russian heritage, and allegedly, P- and there's, like, videos and photos of them getting off the airplane and Putin meeting them on the tarmac, but allegedly, Putin said to them when they got there, "Buenas noches," uh, to the kids. Uh, you know, like, literally. Like, their parents were so deep undercover that the kids didn't know they're Russian. Like, this happened ten days ago. Uh, people... and tha- and that is, like, something that was discovered. Like, people have no idea the level of sophistication of some of these things, and, like, that is a tiny, tiny, tiny little thing

8. 30:00 – 34:26

   Is Trump's Campaign Suffering Due to JD Vance's Appointment?

   1. SMShaun Maguire30:00

      that's happened in the world.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings30:01

      Can I ask you, when we go back to kind of the election, did Trump make a mistake appointing JD Vance? And then it seems like it's a series of faux pas and mishaps have been made since, and it's really damaged his, Trump's campaign. To what extent has it?

   3. SMShaun Maguire30:15

      I think it's a complicated thing to answer because I think if, if Trump gets elected, then I think it was a phenomenal pick because I think that JD is really, really smart, really capable, can actually, like-... like, would be one of the best VPs you could possibly have on the job. But in terms of getting elected, I don't think that it was the easy path choice for getting elected. I think a, the easy path would be someone like Nikki, Haley, or someone that appeals to a kind of broader and different demographic. Unfortunately, we live in a time where everything is so politicized that people don't even care who you actually are, what your views are. They, everything is clipped out of context, everything is, like, weaponized against you, on both sides. I don't want this to be a partisan take. But so take with Trump, like, one of the, a very formative clip for me was the Charlottesville clip. I'm Jewish, and, you know, a few years ago when he s- made the comment that there are very fine people at the Charlottesville rally, like, you know, I was offended by that, and I thought that was crazy. I try to really pay attention to what's happening, like to what people actually say and, from first principles and all this. But even I had never seen the full clip of what he said in Charlottesville until about four months ago or so, and I, I tweeted about this. But, but he, he basically said the opposite. I mean, he said very explicitly that he condemns neo-Nazis, like, he conden- he condemns white supremacists, he says that three times in this, in the full clip. Um, but somehow it's, like, spun to mean the opposite of what he said. This is happening with J.D. Vance. J.D.'s comments on abortion have been much more moderate, actually, than what has been presented to the world. Um, he's just, he's being clipped in the most out of context, most adversarial way possible. And for ............................ this happens to Kamala Harris as well, this was happening to Joe Biden. I think Joe Biden probably does have, you know, he's clearly in mental, mental decline. But going back a few years, like, some of the clips that went very viral to evidence that, like, were clipped out of context, you know, and, like, makes it seem like he's trying to sit down at the wrong time but, like, he was just maybe two seconds ahead of people. Like, there were ... Like, we live in this ver- sadly, in a very adversarial media environment on both sides where nobody, like, listens to the full length of what people say, and I think this works against J.D. more than it works against someone like Nikki Haley, candidly just because of the package of how it's delivered.

   4. HSHarry Stebbings32:56

      But do you think he'll swap out J.D. Vance before the election? Do you think he should?

   5. SMShaun Maguire33:01

      No. I think that-

   6. HSHarry Stebbings33:04

      What if-

   7. SMShaun Maguire33:04

      ... Trump is, he's doing what he thinks would be best for America, which is having a very, very smart VP that, if they get in office, like, like, knows exactly what needs to be done and can help them do it. And, and candidly, like, we need a lot of reform in the US government, and I think J.D. would be much more effective at helping with some of this reform, you know, as a former lawyer and, you know, business minded, et cetera, than many of the other candidates.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings33:33

      I spoke to a very knowledgeable, informed political figure in the US the other day and they said if Trump doesn't win, my real fear is there will be just inc- incredible civil unrest. Like, his supporters will go nuts. Is that possible?

   9. SMShaun Maguire33:47

      Look, I think it's way more likely the other way around. I think almost everything that we've been told about the world has been, like, the opposite has been true. Like, the BLM riots were ... And, and, and, like, anything that Antifa does is way more extreme than what the far right has done, uh, seriously. And so I just, I think that people, people making the threat, the claim that Russia, T- Trump is owned by Russia, false. You know, like, I don't believe it.

   10. HSHarry Stebbings34:15

       You think there's civil unrest if he wins?

   11. SMShaun Maguire34:17

       I'm not saying there will be. I personally think that there is more risk of civil unrest from the far left than from the far

9. 34:26 – 39:12

   Do We Truly Have Freedom of Speech Today?

   1. SMShaun Maguire34:26

      right.

   2. HSHarry Stebbings34:27

      Can I ask you, y- y- uh, something I love about you, Sean, is you're not afraid to say, kind of, how you feel and answer tougher questions. Do you think we live in a society where you have freedom of speech?

   3. SMShaun Maguire34:37

      I think there's a huge difference between having freedom of speech, being willing to use it, and having lots of information warfare. And so just to unpack this quickly, like, I don't think we had freedom of speech before Elon bought Twitter, you know, with things like Trump getting banned from X and many, many right-wing voices getting banned from, or, you know, Twitter, at the time. You look at what's happening in Europe, like, I think we're moving away from free speech very quickly in Europe. And let me be clear, I think we have free speech in America right now, I don't think you have it in Europe. Like, you know, you, you ... It's pretty crazy, I mean... Well, and first of all, do you agree with that or not?

   4. HSHarry Stebbings35:21

      I do agree.

   5. SMShaun Maguire35:22

      I mean, there was this, like, this one was crazy, and most Europeans don't even know this stuff is happening because you can't talk about it. So maybe, like, two months ago or so, um, there was, like, the final legal proceedings of this, just, like, one of the most horrific rape, rape incidents I've ever heard of. It was a young woman, I'm almost certain it was in Germany. Basically, like, a young white girl was in a park at night and a group in ... It's now been a few months but I think I have the numbers right. Basically, a group of four men, who are migrants, all raped her. All four raped her, um, then they let her go. But they had been sending WhatsApp messages to their friends saying that there's, like, a white girl in the park, come rape her, and so she start- you know, she started running away. She made it to another group of men, I think this one was three. Those three men all raped her. Then she started, she got away, she started running away. Another group of two men found her, they raped her. Then she got away, she kept going. Another group of two men found her and they raped her. So she was raped by 11 men in the park, in one night-... I, I think I have... I know that 11's right. I think that this next part's right. I think that seven out of 11 had... There was video evidence of them, or at least photographic evidence of them, and I think nine out of 11 had DNA evidence, like where there was semen in the woman. Um, so like the most evidence you can possibly have. After that happened, like after sentencing, I think only one of them got jail time, and it wasn't... It was like two years. I think only one got jail time. But some hackers released the contact information of the rapist to... like to try to get revenge because of this, and there was some woman, like some German woman, that she sent a bunch of nasty text messages to one of the rapists, and she ended up getting two days in prison for like hate speech and two years of community service for it. Um, so she got more of a sentence than like 10 of 11 rapists, you know, a bunch of whom had DNA and video evidence. Like that is, that is the world that Europe is in today. That's the state of Europe. It's, it's pretty insane. And so people don't even know these things are happening 'cause you can't talk about it, you know, and the media's not talking about it. It, it's insane.

   6. HSHarry Stebbings37:51

      Unpack that. Like why are we not talking about it? 'Cause like we, we are able to talk about it. You know, why, why don't I talk? Because I am fearful that, bluntly, that there is no upside to me talking. I obviously have beliefs. There is no benefit to me saying what I obviously see-

   7. SMShaun Maguire38:07

      Yeah.

   8. HSHarry Stebbings38:07

      ... because it could challenge one of my LPs beliefs. It could challenge one of my founders. It is better to just say nothing.

   9. SMShaun Maguire38:15

      I think, I think that this is a offshoot of cancel culture. Like cancel cult- culture primed people to become so afraid to say what they think, that people just became silent. And then it... as it's evolved, we've gotten to a point where like the people that made it to the top in many situations made it by not only not saying anything, but by like, you know, saying l- like one position is acceptable, the other side is not. And so like there's a lot of leaders in Europe that have been maximally on the train of pro-migration or, you know, like never ever condemn a migrant. Migrants can do no wrong. And like that was part of how they got elected to senior positions. And now that kind of the data has reversed, like their positions can't reverse because like th- they, they have too much

10. 39:12 – 45:13

    Is Migration Europe's Biggest Challenge?

    1. SMShaun Maguire39:12

       vested in this.

    2. HSHarry Stebbings39:13

       Do you think migration is Europe's top challenge? When you look at the migration into particularly France from North Africa, when you look at the migration patterns that we have in the UK, Scandinavia is terrible for migration, uh,

    3. SMShaun Maguire39:24

       So I've been to over a hundred countries. Um, my biggest trip was in 2008, 2009. On that trip, I went to, like all over the world, but one... like I had a pretty formative experience in Sweden.

    4. HSHarry Stebbings39:36

       Mm-hmm.

    5. SMShaun Maguire39:37

       Where I was on the train from Stockholm to Malmo, and like, you know, half of the train were migrants, and it was just clear they were not being assimilated at all. And at the time, like th- I don't remember the exact statistics, but Sweden's obviously a very small population, you know, nine million people or something like that at the time. And at the time, they had tak- the country of Sweden had taken more refugees from the Middle East than America, and I don't remember exactly which country. I'm drawing the lines like from Iraq or from Afghanistan or from the combination or... but like, like even though America had started the wars there, Sweden had taken more refugees, not on a per capita basis, on an absolute basis than America. And they were taking them at a rate that you just can't abs- like you can't assimilate them into the culture of that population, you know? There's not like enough schools to teach people Swedish, you know, for adults. There's not enough jobs. Like they start to have cracks in the hospital network, you know, pe- the refugees go and live in their own like little cities and... Uh, look, I am a... my family were migrants to America. I'm a huge, huge believer in like orderly immigration and skilled immigration, and I have empathy for refugees. But I think that it's kind of insane if, if there's an idea that people can immigrate to a company and not assimilate into the culture of that country, and I think that's what, that's what Europe has gotten wrong. Like they've let people come in with open bor- open border policies, you know, and not assimilate, and now Europe doesn't have... is, is on the verge of not having European culture anymore. It'll be they're importing, you know, the culture of North Africa.

    6. HSHarry Stebbings41:25

       Do you think it is immigration that is the problem, or do you think it is simply the falling purchasing power of the pound, the reduction in living standards, and not having enough jobs, and then everyone goes, "It's the immigrants"? Are we actually looking at the wrong thing for a different problem? Hey, why don't we embrace data centers from the biggest incumbents? Why don't we embrace technology as the UK? Why don't we not tax the shit out of the rich so they actually choose to be here? Are you sure Europe? Like, you know, Barry Summers is like, "It's a museum."

    7. SMShaun Maguire41:59

       I don't think you have to move. Uh, you know, and, and I love Europe. I try to see the best in everywhere. Um, I think you can still have a great life in Europe going forward. I think there'll still be great companies created in Europe. Um, I just think that the rate, like the probability of those things happening, will be lower than in many other places and lower in Europe on a proportionate basis than it was 20 years ago. Um, like look, I... to me, the places in the world, like I think the place that's doing the best right now of anywhere is probably Dubai. Like UAE is...... you know-

    8. HSHarry Stebbings42:37

       Crushing.

    9. SMShaun Maguire42:38

       ... you go, just go look at what they're doing and their policies. Like, they're doing better than anywhere. Yes, I think Europe is on the way down, you know. I think the whole West is in decline relative to the East. Um, but I think you can still have a great life, and there's still a lot of opportunity.

    10. HSHarry Stebbings42:56

        We mentioned kind of being canceled or feeling like I was being canceled. Um, you know, that people tried to have you fired.

    11. SMShaun Maguire43:04

        Yes, that's true.

    12. HSHarry Stebbings43:06

        What... Talk to me about that. And, and how did that go down? Like, were you called into an office and said, "Hey, some important people have tried to get you fired"?

    13. SMShaun Maguire43:12

        I'm, I can't... Look, I'm not gonna go into all the details. Many, many different people tried to get me fired in many different ways. Um, look, after October 7th, I was one of the most outspoken people in the world and one of the first. Yeah, people don't like that (laughs) . And, and look, we... I mean, I'm gonna... I'll give you an analogy, or I'll give you a more recent experience, not about myself. But in my inbox, the last... You know, I, I feel happy that I got spared from this. But in my Sequoia inbox, the last 12 hours, uh, probably 20, like, climate people have emailed most Sequoia partners saying that, like, Doug Leone is problematic for supporting Trump and that Trump has anti-climate positions and they don't know how they can support, like, how they can believe that support, Sequoia supports climate anymore. But just really quick, like, it's like 20 people, you know. So obviously there's some climate mailing list or some climate group and they basically all sent the same language, but they're trying to cancel Doug for, for, you know, supporting Trump because of Trump's climate policies. And it's like, that obviously is not gonna work. It's Doug Leone, but I just find it-

    14. HSHarry Stebbings44:29

        (laughs)

    15. SMShaun Maguire44:29

        ... crazy that it's like one partner in a firm that has made great climate investments, you know. And it's like, it's just such... It's this cancel culture ideology, and it's this belief that, you know, like someone disagrees with you and so you can just send an email and maybe someone will take action on it. I just think that's very sloppy, and I hope we can get back to a point where we can have civil, civil discourse, civil debate, you know, not j- not assume that every side is stupid or wrong or villainous. Like, um, I hope we-

    16. HSHarry Stebbings45:02

        I would really love to see that meeting happen. I would love to see Doug-

    17. SMShaun Maguire45:06

        Yeah.

    18. HSHarry Stebbings45:06

        ... called in and sat down and told that, "You're a naughty boy." (laughs)

    19. SMShaun Maguire45:11

        I, I don't think he, I don't think he will

11. 45:13 – 52:15

    Shaun’s Thoughts on DEI

    1. SMShaun Maguire45:13

       (laughs) .

    2. HSHarry Stebbings45:14

       I, I think somehow it might not happen. I, I, I do have to ask you, I spoke to many of your founders and they said I had to ask about this. They said, "You have to ask what he thinks about DEI. This is one of the most important things to us-

    3. SMShaun Maguire45:24

       Yeah.

    4. HSHarry Stebbings45:25

       "... and, uh, how he feels should be spoken about more." So when it comes to DEI, how do you feel?

    5. SMShaun Maguire45:31

       First of all, I think the, the modern paradigm of DEI is toxic, woke, you know, ideology that, that is literally cancer for society. So, you know, I'm p- putting v- very... I'm not gonna mince words with that, but I think that's, I think that DEI means something different than what Mark Cuban, uh, thinks. Uh, I think that D- you know, uh, D- DEI is not diversity. And this may be very ironic coming from me, but I deeply believe in diversity. Like, diversity matters a lot to me. And like one piece of it is equity, and the definition of equity, I mean, or like the widely accepted definition is, is not creating equal opportunities, it's to have equal outcomes. That is insane. Like, the idea that, that like no matter what someone's work ethic is or no matter like, um, like w- what their talent is, that everyone should have equal outcomes. Like, that is communism and that will like, that will literally destroy the West from (laughs) inside. And so I have this kind of... I have these really polarized views where I am very supportive of diversity and have been a champion of diversity my entire life, but I think that DEI means something different than people think it does. Like, DEI means you can, like, have quotas against hiring white men.

    6. HSHarry Stebbings47:02

       A lot of journalists say, "How many female founders do you have in your portfolio?"

    7. SMShaun Maguire47:05

       Yeah.

    8. HSHarry Stebbings47:06

       Do you think that is the wrong question to ask?

    9. SMShaun Maguire47:08

       I think that that's a fair question to ask, and I think that it's helpful to have reminders that like, "Hey, you know, you should go hunt for new opportunities like outside of your base network," and, and like it's helpful to have reminders of like, "Oh wow, you only work with white men." Like that's a good... If y- it's helpful to see that statistics. It's kind of a reminder that, "Hey, maybe I'm doing something wrong," like the-

    10. HSHarry Stebbings47:37

        But you don't think you should be chained.

    11. SMShaun Maguire47:38

        I will just... I will say there is a venture fund that I know very well, it is not Sequoia, that for a period of time had a policy that every investor was supposed to back at least one female founder per year. And so like even if you did zero investments... So like if you did zero investments in that year, you were not meeting that policy. For me, my issues are more with like poorly implemented policies.

    12. HSHarry Stebbings48:06

        How do you feel about the pronouns and the he/her compliance stuff that we have to do today?

    13. SMShaun Maguire48:13

        I have no issues at all with people living their lives however they want. My issu- but I have strongly allergic reaction to imposing your views on other people.

    14. HSHarry Stebbings48:28

        Uh, we are seeing, you know, participants in the Olympics with XY chromosomes-

    15. SMShaun Maguire48:33

        Yeah.

    16. HSHarry Stebbings48:33

        ... uh, in boxing, and they are the two finalists in the boxing.

    17. SMShaun Maguire48:36

        Yeah.

    18. HSHarry Stebbings48:36

        Surprise, surprise.

    19. SMShaun Maguire48:37

        Yeah, I think, I think that's just stupid. It's not... For me, it's not a 10 out of 10 issue that I'm frustrated about, but it, it just, it does seem very...... that one seems very stupid. With the transgender stuff, the things that, the issue that I think is really wrong is basically how we're handling transgender issues in schools, and the idea that, like, schools don't need to report to parents, you know, if a 12-year-old child s- says they're transgender. In the most extreme that, like, affirming children's gender is taken into, like, custody battles in Canada and other places, and it, it can even be seen i- in the most extreme s- case as child abuse to not affirm your child's gender. Um, and, like, just things like that are really insane to me, especially, you know, for 12-year-old kids, I think that that is a just batshit crazy...

    20. HSHarry Stebbings49:36

        Did you see Elon's interview with Jordan Peterson where he said about the loss of his child to kind of the woke mind virus and this?

    21. SMShaun Maguire49:44

        I didn't watch the full interview, but I watched part of it.

    22. HSHarry Stebbings49:48

        What did you think?

    23. SMShaun Maguire49:49

        So I have two sons and I hope to have more, uh, kids. For me, I think that if, if I felt like I lost a child or had a, like, like, had a damaged relationship with a child because of, like, what schools or the state did, I would, I would be v- uh, beyond furious and beyond pained. That's like the crux of what it comes down to is, is like, if other people are able, like, if other people are able to groom your child, um, like, that is not okay to me. Um, but on the other hand, if you do, like, genuinely have a child that, like, is transgender, then I think they should be supported.

    24. HSHarry Stebbings50:45

        Where would you want your children to grow up, Shaun?

    25. SMShaun Maguire50:48

        Israel.

    26. HSHarry Stebbings50:49

        Why?

    27. SMShaun Maguire50:50

        I'm pretty crazy in many ways, but I think that, th- th- like, this is gonna sound crazy. I want my kids to grow up with a lot of resiliency, you know, and, and grit, and when you're under attack and misunderstood and stuff, like, it is a shield from all of the insanity that is happening in the rest of the world. And so even though they're physically under attack, you know, and there's, you have to go into the bomb shelter regularly when rockets are fired and Iron Dome has to intercept them, growing up in Israel gives you a shield against information warfare. Because when you're on the receiving end of information warfare all the time every day, it shows you what the tactics are and makes you immune to it. Growing up in that environment gives you immunity against, like, complacency and laziness. Uh, it puts a chip on your shoulder. It shows you, like, what the world actually is. It gives you a sense of comradery to be amongst a community where kind of everyone is going through the same thing, and that if, if you don't cooperate then you won't make it, and anyways, I, I have definitely a contrarian view on this.

    28. HSHarry Stebbings52:07

        Why do you not move the family there then?

    29. SMShaun Maguire52:09

        Well, I am buying a house in Israel right now. Uh, I close on it soon.

12. 52:15 – 55:49

    Is Shaun Concerned About Your Safety in the US?

    1. SMShaun Maguire52:15

    2. HSHarry Stebbings52:15

       Do you fear for your safety in the US?

    3. SMShaun Maguire52:17

       Sometimes. I, I mean, look, yes, I, I do, especially because of how outspoken I've been. I get recognized pretty regularly now. It's kind of insane. You know, I've had dozens of death threats, some of which were pretty credible, after October 7th. Fewer now than, like, at the peak when I was really, really active. Simple things like whenever I'm in an Uber, I don't ever wanna mention Judaism or Israel, and, like, these are very simple things, but, I mean, first of all, there has been a lot more Jewish hate crimes in the West in the l- since October 7th than people realize. It is not reported on. Like, there are murders of Jews that are not reported on. Like, I know of two people that were murdered that is not, is barely reported on by the mainstream media. It's insane. And, and so th-

    4. HSHarry Stebbings53:05

       Wh- wh- why?

    5. SMShaun Maguire53:06

       Because no J- like, i- it is against the narrative. If you go report that a Jewish dentist in San Diego is stabbed to death by a patient named Mohammed, this actually happened, a Persian Jewish dentist who my family knows in San Diego was literally stabbed to death by a former patient named Mohammed, like, just randomly, like, it was not reported, and it was not reported as a hate crime, et cetera. Uh, and because it's just, it's against the narrative and there's media capture on one side. And there's actually been quite a few incidents like that since October 7th, and they are not reported. And on the opposite side, th- things have been reported out of proportion, but anyways...

    6. HSHarry Stebbings53:48

       Can I ask you, how do you get away with the things that you say, Shaun? (laughs) I mean it in the nicest way, but within Sequoia, it is a, it is a firm.

    7. SMShaun Maguire53:56

       Yes.

    8. HSHarry Stebbings53:56

       And you have to toe the party line often. You don't. How?

    9. SMShaun Maguire54:02

       (laughs) Um, well, you should ask Rudolf, but look I-

    10. HSHarry Stebbings54:08

        But do they sit you down and say you have special-

    11. SMShaun Maguire54:11

        No.

    12. HSHarry Stebbings54:11

        ... microphone access?

    13. SMShaun Maguire54:12

        I don't, no. Look, I can get fired at any moment. (laughs) So it's possible. I think Sequoia's a really special place. I think it's a more special place than people realize. Um, I think that part of the secret of how Sequoia has stayed so successful for so long is by having a culture where you can have people with opposite personalities, opposite points of view that still work together really well. You know, like, Mike Moritz and Doug Leone could not have more opposite political perspectives or more opposite personalities. They worked together for almost 30 years and...I think there were many disagreements, but, like, when those two guys would disagree on something and, you know, have a long debate, you know, what- whatever they led to as the compromise or whatever, like, that process is polishing a diamond. Like, you start with a lump of coal and through this extreme, you know, like, combative process, like, you can polish it into, like, a- a diamond of an idea. And so, look, I try... Why am I not fired? One, I try to only say things that I have researched to an unbelievable extent and can back up to any level of detail. Second, I try to have a lot of empathy, and so, like, even if it doesn't come across this way, like, you know, like, I have- I have pretty nuanced views and I try to have empathy for people. And three, I really care about my partners and- and try to support my partners and- and so even if it doesn't come across that

13. 55:49 – 58:25

    The 17.5-Mile Run to Meet Partners at SpaceX

    1. SMShaun Maguire55:49

       way, like...

    2. HSHarry Stebbings55:49

       Talk to me about the time you ran 17 and a half miles to see your partners at SpaceX.

    3. SMShaun Maguire55:54

       Yeah. (laughs)

    4. HSHarry Stebbings55:56

       (laughs)

    5. SMShaun Maguire55:56

       Look, as a... I- I have an insane amount of energy, like, insane. I have my whole life. If I don't exercise, like, if I don't just burn my energy into the ground, I lose my mind. I'm like a wild animal, feral animal if I don't exercise and... Yeah. It- it was- it wasn't 17 and a half, it was 15 miles, but... So this is something I do, like, a lot, like, all the time. Basically, we were-

    6. HSHarry Stebbings56:22

       In jeans?

    7. SMShaun Maguire56:22

       ... a bunch of people at SpaceX and I kind of timed it out and mapped it out and, you know, it was 15 miles and I scheduled a bunch of phone calls and I literally... Yeah, I ran to SpaceX in my jeans and... From Beverly- f- sorry, from West Hollywood, from... Yeah, from West Hollywood, and I did phone calls most of the way, you know, while running in my jeans, and part of it was through the deep, deep ghetto. Uh, it was- it was k- probably really stupid to do it. I- I won't do it again. It was middle of the day and so I felt a little bit more comfortable, but... Yeah, I'm stupid like that.

    8. HSHarry Stebbings57:03

       Fi- final one for the quickfire, I promise. You said, "We were ridiculed for investing in X. I'm long X."

    9. SMShaun Maguire57:09

       Mm-hmm.

    10. HSHarry Stebbings57:09

        Total respect for- for you and for Elon and for X. I love X. But it was at 44 billion.

    11. SMShaun Maguire57:17

        Yup.

    12. HSHarry Stebbings57:17

        Can you paint the case for how that is a good investment at a 44 billion dollar entry price, and what that needs to be?

    13. SMShaun Maguire57:24

        I wish we paid a lower price, obviously.

    14. HSHarry Stebbings57:27

        (laughs)

    15. SMShaun Maguire57:27

        But the price- the price was what it was at that point in the public markets. Like, you ha- when you do a take private, you have to pay a premium to the, you know, public, you know, price, and so I wish it was half the price, but I think that X is one of the most strategic assets in the world and I think Elon is the best operator in the world, and I think that the... You know, usage is at all-time high on the platform. I think the relevancy of the platform is at all-time high, and I think that, like, we- we are... I think X is still weeding the garden or, you know, like, just removing all of the dead weight and clearing through, you know, the- the brush before kind of the whole next gen of product ideas and- and, like, enhanced monetization of- of

14. 58:25 – 1:01:13

    What Makes Elon So Good?

    1. SMShaun Maguire58:25

       X will happen.

    2. HSHarry Stebbings58:26

       What makes Elon so good?

    3. SMShaun Maguire58:27

       He's one of the greatest first principle thinkers of all time, uh, and that's much easier said than done. Two, I think that he is... Has some of the best instincts of anyone out there. I think that people don't quite appreciate just how good his instincts are, and sometimes, you know, like, back in 2013 or so, he was saying that eventually SpaceX will launch Starlink and that it would be a huge deal. Like, the technologies of how you would make Starlink were science fiction in 2013, like the phasedarray antennas and, like, you know, the costs, and I don't think anyone could've laid out the exact blueprint of how you would build Starlink, you know, five years later, um, back then, but I think he- he just... He had such strong instincts that it all would happen and, you know, he could, like, almost visually see the price changes and the technology improvements and kind of can put that together to see where things are going. So, anyway, so he has incredible instincts. Next thing is that I think he's one of the best reads of young talent ever. Um, he is an absolute superhuman at identifying young, off-the-charts talented people that are from non-obvious backgrounds. Like, he doesn't need someone to be from- from, like, the most obvious background to... He doesn't need the, "Oh, they were an IMO Gold medalist and so therefore I'll hire them." He can go meet someone off the street and just, like, because he's such an expert in so many things, he can ask them to go deep on things and he can assess, like, just how far deep they can go, and I- I can't begin to stress to you how important that is. And then, I think one last thing is that... And this is something that John and Patrick Collison do very well too, um, they all kind of, like, randomly sample every single part of the company at all times. So, like, a day for them would be, you know, like, join a random sale... Like, uh, like, follow a junior engineering candidate, like, interview that person, be the first interviewer and see how they go through the pipeline, you know, join a junior sales standup, join, like, a meeting of managers of managers, like, you know, meet with the president. It just... By looking at every business function on different length scales kind of randomly lets you basically diagnose...... problems in these organizations early, and just gives you a lot more leverage than if you are kind of, like, set in your ways.

15. 1:01:13 – 1:08:49

    Quick-Fire Round

    1. SMShaun Maguire1:01:13

    2. HSHarry Stebbings1:01:13

       Sean, I can talk to you all day, but I wanna move into a quick fire, so I say a short statement, you give me your thoughts in 60 seconds or less.

    3. SMShaun Maguire1:01:19

       Great.

    4. HSHarry Stebbings1:01:19

       Sound good?

    5. SMShaun Maguire1:01:20

       Yes.

    6. HSHarry Stebbings1:01:20

       Okay. Is AI overrated or underrated?

    7. SMShaun Maguire1:01:25

       Overrated in the short run, underrated in the long run.

    8. HSHarry Stebbings1:01:28

       How do you feel about the US selling off Bitcoin?

    9. SMShaun Maguire1:01:31

       One of the stupidest decisions of all time.

    10. HSHarry Stebbings1:01:35

        (laughs) Thought that might be the case (laughs) .

    11. SMShaun Maguire1:01:37

        It's, I mean, like, it's just such an obvious hedge for America, like, and selling two billion dollars of Bitcoin today just doesn't matter for America, but, um, in, in the world where China and others basically weaken the dollar, deliberately kind of reduce dollar dominance, which they're doing right now. People don't understand how much this is happening right now, especially after the war in Ukraine where US sanctioned Russia, Russia basically moved off Swift, like, a lot of oil trade is now happening in yuan, not in dollars. The Petrodollar is breaking, blah, blah, blah. Um, like, you look at the cross-border trade in China and, like, the percent of it that's happening in yuan now, it's now, like, 60% is happening in yuan, which is insane compared to a decade ago. And so I just think it's a very obvious hedge for Americas to hold Bitcoin.

    12. HSHarry Stebbings1:02:26

        Should the US stop funding Ukraine?

    13. SMShaun Maguire1:02:28

        I can't do this one in 60 seconds.

    14. HSHarry Stebbings1:02:31

        Take 120.

    15. SMShaun Maguire1:02:32

        I first visited Ukraine in 1992. My great-grandfather, Arthur Cohen, was a geologist who worked in the Black Sea, and he took my family to go visit, like, the region after the Soviet Union collapsed so we could go see it. Um, Ukraine in 1992 was, like, it was the saddest place I've ever been 'cause, like, really the, after the Soviet Union fell, there was a couple year period where there was still enough, like, uh, inertia from the Soviet Union of the economy of, like, output of oil and commodities and stockpiles of goods, et cetera, that were being sold, that there was still some money coming in called in 1991. But by, like, end of 1992, early 1993, it was the absolute low point in terms of the economy there, and five-year-old kids were just begging in the street, swarming you, you know, if, when they could tell that you were from America and might have some money or whatever. Like, you'd go in a grocery store and there'd be 10 items in the entire grocery store. Like, it was very, very poor, and I, I lo- so kind of that was a formative experience for me, and I ha- I've studied Ukraine very deeply since. I have a, like, a, a lot of love for Ukraine, um, but I, I think that America could not have botched the initial response more. Um, but I think that now we're in a situation where I don't think a forever war is in the interest of the Ukrainian people. I think that over time, like, in a war of production, the East will win. I think that China will just wildly outproduce munitions compared to the West, so I actually think the th- the thing that's in Ukraine's interest is to have a ceasefire and unfortunately cede some of the eastern territory, you know, and, but have some... There needs to be some security guarantee with teeth that is not NATO, but is something else to have a deterrence against Russia just kind of doing the same thing again and just eating away more and more territory. And so I, you know, I... This is a, another landmine topic. I love the Ukrainian people. I believe in them, um, and there's a lot of nuance around what I'm saying, but I don't think a forever war is in their interest.

    16. HSHarry Stebbings1:04:56

        Who's the best picker inside Sequoia?

    17. SMShaun Maguire1:04:58

        I really think it depends on the topic. Like, if it's a SaaS company, Pat Grady. If it's, if it's you have to read someone, you only get, like, 10 minutes to read the person, then it's Doug Leone. If it's a, like, a biotech company, it's definitely Rudolf. If it's a operationally heavy company, it's Alfred. If it's fintech company, it's probably Andrew Reed. Y- if it's a AI company, it's David Cohn, Sonja and Konstantin. Like, it just, it really depends on the type of company.

    18. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:34

        Who's the best at sourcing? You can't give me, like, the variant.

    19. SMShaun Maguire1:05:38

        Daphne Jean and Josephine Chen and Konstantin.

    20. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:44

        What have you changed your mind on in the last 12 months most?

    21. SMShaun Maguire1:05:47

        I mean, Harry, my mind's fully made up. I don't change my mind on anything anymore. Um-

    22. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:53

        You are now-

    23. SMShaun Maguire1:05:53

        ... which is cool.

    24. HSHarry Stebbings1:05:53

        ... a fully developed venture capitalist (laughs) .

    25. SMShaun Maguire1:05:57

        I'm, I'm a fully developed venture capitalist. Um, I think it's probably Europe. Like, a year ago, I would've been slightly more optimistic about Europe than I am today. I think Europe has made every wrong decision in the last year and, like, really kind of solidified its, uh, place amongst dinosaurs.

    26. HSHarry Stebbings1:06:15

        Thanks, mate. Yeah. No, I, uh, I, I changed my mind on labor being actually maybe possibly good for the future of the United Kingdom, and now I've seen that Europe, uh, not Europe, but labor are probably the worst thing for the United Kingdom.

    27. SMShaun Maguire1:06:28

        That's, that's my view.

    28. HSHarry Stebbings1:06:29

        Terribly.

    29. SMShaun Maguire1:06:29

        And I, I think that's the case with most left wing, uh, governments in the world today.

    30. HSHarry Stebbings1:06:35

        Fucking nuts. We're gonna see cap gains go up incr- incredibly, and everyone's gonna leave.

Episode duration: 1:08:50