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At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Fintech’s cycles, maturing infrastructure, and AI-driven fraud reshape 2026 outlook
- Fintech moved through distinct “seasons” from late-spring growth (2018–2019) to a COVID-era boom (2020–2021), a sharp funding winter (late 2022), and a gradual thaw back to “spring” by 2024–2025.
- Macro shifts—especially the interest-rate cycle—changed fintech business models, pushing many companies from lending/origination dependence toward deposits/float and more full-stack strategies including bank charters and acquisitions.
- The industry’s center of gravity has broadened from consumer-point solutions to fintech-as-infrastructure, embedded finance, and software sold into incumbent financial institutions that now adopt third-party technology more readily.
- AI is expected to transform workflows inside financial institutions and customer interactions (e.g., agentic experiences like mortgage origination), but the most immediate AI “killer app” is enabling more scalable, sophisticated fraud.
- Plaid’s evolution mirrors the market: from account-linking access infrastructure to analytics and risk products, highlighted by its Protect anti-fraud suite and LendScore (cash-flow-based credit scoring) as major near-term growth drivers.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasFintech is no longer a niche—it’s increasingly synonymous with financial services.
The conversation frames fintech as having matured from startups delivering digital access into the mainstream fabric of financial services, with banks positioning themselves as large fintech operators and non-financial brands adopting embedded finance.
The rate cycle rewired fintech economics and exposed fragile lending-led growth.
Low rates amplified lending volume and venture exuberance; higher rates compressed lending margins and forced a shift toward deposits/float and stronger balance-sheet strategies, contributing to the post-2022 pullback and subsequent maturation.
“Access” was the first wave; “excellence” (better underwriting, clearer credit) is the next.
They argue the industry largely solved basic digital access (open accounts, move money, apply online), but core systems like credit scoring and fraud remain illogical or opaque—creating room for products grounded in cash flow, explainability, and better risk signals.
AI will accelerate incumbents’ adoption of third-party software because outcomes are obvious.
Unlike prior shifts (e.g., cloud), leaders can personally test AI and see productivity gains, increasing board-level urgency and shortening sales cycles for software that automates compliance, operations, and servicing work previously done manually in “Excel-driven” processes.
The near-term AI winner in finance is the adversary: fraudsters.
Perret predicts fraud will continue compounding (cited at ~18–20% annual growth) because AI scales social engineering, deepfakes, and scams like “pig butchering,” making it harder to stop when the victim is a legitimate user being manipulated.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesIt turns out the biggest use case for AI is fraudsters committing fraud against financial services companies.
— Zach Perret
Financial fraud is growing at like, like eighteen to twenty percent a year, uh, which is insane, and it's already a huge market.
— Zach Perret
I mean, the cat, the cat'll win l-long term, but the mouse is winning right now.
— Zach Perret
We've solved the access problem. Not completely, not in every little niche, but, but for the most part, we as a collective industry have solved the access problem.
— Zach Perret
What we've done is we've taken traditional financial services and we've made it digital. We haven't necessarily made it excellent.
— Zach Perret
SPEAKERS
Zach Perret
guestCofounder and CEO of Plaid, a financial data network powering fintech connectivity and products.
David Haber
hostFintech investor at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) focused on financial services and fintech infrastructure.
High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.
