All-In Podcast

Why Anthropic's best model is locked up despite a $30B ramp

Mythos scored so well on cyber offense that Anthropic delayed its release; a 100-day hardening window did not stop Claude Code from driving a $30B run rate.

JCJason CalacanishostBGBrad GerstnerguestDSDavid SackshostCPChamath Palihapitiyahost

Apr 10, 2026·1h 29m·Watch on YouTube ↗

📖 CHAPTERS

1. 1

   Brad Gerstner returns, “retard maxing,” and show banter sets the tone

   The episode opens with Brad Gerstner subbing in as the “fifth bestie,” plus extended banter about moderation, therapy/rumination, and internet culture. They tee up a packed agenda focused on AI model releases, AI coding agents, and geopolitical risk.

2. 2

   Anthropic withholds “Mythos” for cyber risk: what they claim it can do

   Jason introduces Anthropic’s decision to delay release of its newest model, Mythos, citing serious security concerns. The hosts recount Anthropic’s claims: the model finds long-dormant vulnerabilities across operating systems, browsers, and core libraries and can chain multiple flaws into sophisticated exploits.

3. 3

   Self-regulation vs marketing stunt: Brad, Sacks, Chamath debate Anthropic’s motives

   Brad argues Anthropic deserves credit for sandboxing the model and coordinating a 100-day defensive push rather than “move fast and break the internet.” Sacks highlights Anthropic’s history of fear-based marketing but says cyber risk is plausibly real; Chamath calls it mostly theater and questions what can be fixed quickly.

4. 4

   National security and coordination: CIA/FBI, “Team America,” and the patch window

   The conversation turns to game theory: whether adversaries already have comparable capabilities and what role government should play. They discuss industry coordination (Frontier Model Forum), the need to treat even ‘performative’ risk as real, and the practical reality that AI coding gains directly raise cyber offense and defense stakes.

5. 5

   OpenClaw ‘ankled’: subscription cutoffs, API pricing, and first-party agent competition

   Sacks and Jason unpack OpenClaw’s complaint that Anthropic restricted access via the $200 subscription plan, forcing heavy users onto metered API pricing. They debate whether this is rational pricing (ending an implicit subsidy) or an anti-competitive move—especially as Anthropic launches an in-house agent framework soon after.

6. 6

   Is Anthropic dominant in AI coding? Market share vs TAM arguments

   The hosts argue about what “dominance” means in an early market. Jason and Chamath suggest Anthropic may control a majority of coding tokens today, while Brad emphasizes the overall software TAM is enormous and fast-changing—making monopoly claims premature.

7. 7

   Open source agents and distributed training: Bittensor, “Bridges,” and enterprise realism

   Jason argues open source agent tooling could undercut frontier labs, citing crypto-incentivized development and rapid iteration. Chamath separates two ideas: distributed/open training may be disruptive, but enterprises won’t outsource sensitive production code transformation to open communities; Brad and others note open source still penetrates enterprises heavily (Linux/K8s precedent).

8. 8

   Anthropic’s $30B run-rate shock: fastest revenue ramp and the ‘TAM for intelligence’

   They review reports that Anthropic has surged to roughly a $30B annualized run rate, fueled by Claude Code and enterprise demand. Brad frames it as proof that AI revenues can scale exponentially, that compute constraints are currently the limiter, and that the addressable market is fundamentally the ‘TAM for intelligence.’

9. 9

   Profitability and margins: gross vs net revenue confusion, inference cost declines

   Chamath cautions the discussion is still at the “revenue talk” stage and notes public confusion about gross vs net reporting. Brad argues margins should be improving quickly because fixed compute is being utilized harder and inference costs are falling sharply; they debate how fast these companies can become sustainably profitable given massive capex needs.

10. 10

    Vibe shift: Anthropic ripping, OpenAI reloading—competition is not zero-sum

    Brad credits Anthropic’s focus (coding/agents) for out-executing OpenAI recently, but warns against counting OpenAI out, citing an imminent model release and Codex momentum. The group frames the market as enormous and multi-winner, with Meta and Google also positioned to compete—while emphasizing the need for “clean” competitive behavior to avoid antitrust backlash.

11. 11

    Community/business interlude: Liquidity Summit updates and speaker announcements

    A lighter segment updates listeners on the sold-out Liquidity event and new speaker announcements. The hosts plug upcoming events and joke about last-minute ticket demands and podcast-related social dynamics.

12. 12

    Iran war ceasefire and market reaction: escalation traps, off-ramps, and diplomacy

    The final major segment turns to the Iran conflict: a two-week ceasefire, diplomatic travel, and Trump’s public statements. Sacks is careful to speak personally (not for the White House), endorsing the ceasefire as critical to avoiding escalation; Brad ties market resilience to expectations of limited entanglement and outlines potential upside if multiple geopolitical “planes land.”

13. 13

    Israel’s influence and U.S. politics: coalition strains, popularity decline, and next steps

    They debate why the U.S. entered the conflict, referencing reporting on Netanyahu’s pitch and internal U.S. deliberations. Chamath stresses the President ultimately decides; he warns Israel risks losing predictable U.S. support if it doesn’t help create an off-ramp, while Sacks cites Israeli political concerns about declining U.S. public approval.