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DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias

(0:00) The Besties welcome Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias (1:54) Why Antonio is helping out and what it's like working with DOGE (4:56) DOGE's latest findings: illegal immigration, social security, and more (27:59) Was Biden's open border policy a Dem strategy to expand their voter base? (39:55) Tariffs: Liberation Day chaos, reactions, strategy (55:26) Impact, consequences, and risks for the Trump Administration (1:13:50) How the US can thrive in a high-tariff world (1:31:33) Future US political landscape if the tariff strategy fails (1:42:27) Chamath recaps his best-performing asset of 2025 + wrap Follow Antonio: https://x.com/AntonioGracias Follow Ben: https://x.com/benshapiro Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/AntonioGracias/status/1906877800511893670 https://polymarket.com/event/magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025?tid=1743434648860 https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907553323387072774 https://x.com/enriqueabeyta/status/1907796286763409439 https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907622848149037509 https://x.com/litcapital/status/1907813630227173534 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/asml-euv-machine-lithography-chips-967954d0 https://www.hoover.org/publications/goodfellows https://www.ft.com/content/bcb1d331-5d8e-4cac-811e-eac7d9448486 #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostBen ShapiroguestAntonio GraciasguestDavid Friedberghost
Apr 3, 20251h 54mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Doge, Data, and Tariffs: All-In Grills Immigration and Trade Strategy

  1. This episode of the All-In Podcast features venture capitalist Antonio Gracias, now working on the Trump administration’s Doge efficiency initiative at the Social Security Administration (SSA), and commentator Ben Shapiro. Gracias walks through internal SSA data showing a sharp rise in Social Security numbers issued to non-citizens via the “enumeration beyond entry” program, arguing it reflects systemic abuse of asylum and parole processes with security, fiscal, and voting implications.
  2. The group debates whether these policies effectively incentivized human trafficking, increased welfare usage, and enabled non-citizen voting, and whether Democratic leadership intentionally sought to expand their voter base. Shapiro and the hosts then pivot to Trump’s newly announced global tariffs, critiquing the chaotic rollout, potential recession risk, and the lack of a clearly articulated endgame.
  3. They examine historical lessons on protectionism, risks to U.S. competitiveness, possible Chinese retaliation through IP theft and supply-chain dominance, and what a ‘new Bretton Woods’ global economic order could look like. Throughout, they circle back to American exceptionalism, entrepreneurship, AI, and immigration as the real strategic levers for maintaining U.S. leadership.
  4. The episode closes with discussion of market reactions, corporate credit risk, populist backlash scenarios, and how both immigration enforcement and trade policy could either reinforce or undermine America’s long-term economic and political stability.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

SSA’s ‘enumeration beyond entry’ program exploded post-2021, primarily via asylum and parole pathways.

Gracias explains that enumeration beyond entry (EB) is a specific program for issuing Social Security numbers (SSNs) to non-citizens after arrival. Historically, it served clearly defined groups (e.g., Afghan translators, green card holders, work-visa holders) at a baseline of roughly 300–400k SSNs per year. Starting around 2021, the EB count spiked to about 2.1 million annually and a total of ~5.4 million since inception, with the growth heavily driven by asylum seekers, parolees, and individuals entering on Notices to Appear (NTAs). This growth—not the existence of EB itself—is what Gracias flags as an abuse of originally legitimate programs.

Weak front-end controls allowed millions to enter, work, and access benefits with minimal identity verification.

Gracias describes a pipeline in which border agents, overwhelmed during the surge, issued NTAs with court dates often six years out. Migrants could then file asylum applications without interviews, request work authorization (Form I-765), receive an EAD (Form I-766), and automatically be mailed SSN cards—often without any in-person ID verification. He notes ~23% of sampled border records had no fingerprints, and birthdates were disproportionately listed as January 1, suggesting fabricated data. This loose process enabled large numbers to obtain quasi-legal status, work authorization, and full integration into federal and state systems.

Non-citizen SSN holders were found on multiple benefit rolls and in voter files, raising legal and political alarms.

Mapping EB SSNs into state-level benefit systems, Gracias’s team found usage across unemployment insurance, Medicaid (about 1.3 million currently enrolled), and other programs—indicating a growing fiscal burden. Cross-referencing “friendly” state voter rolls, they also discovered thousands of EB-linked individuals registered to vote, with over a thousand having actually voted in at least one state. He frames this as a serious legal issue (federal crime) and claims some cases have been referred for prosecution, while warning it’s likely just the “tip of the iceberg” compared to the wider illegal population known to ICE or completely unknown.

Gracias argues policy changes effectively incentivized human trafficking and created a moral, not just political, crisis.

Beyond fiscal and electoral angles, Gracias repeatedly emphasizes that relaxed asylum standards and open defaults at SSA created a “money magnet” for traffickers. He cites typical smuggling fees of $20,000 per person and cartel control over border crossings, arguing many migrants become de facto indentured servants to service these debts. He points to high suicide rates among border agents during the surge and describes the situation as a human-rights catastrophe: U.S. policy didn’t just tolerate trafficking, it economically rewarded it.

Critiques of Antonio’s chart focused on data mixing; his defense hinges on apples-to-apples EB-only comparison.

Some analysts, including hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, claimed Gracias’s chart exaggerated growth by cherry-picking data. Gracias counters that critics conflated total SSN enumeration (including consulate-issued numbers and office visits) with the narrower EB subset he highlighted. He notes one prominent critic deleted their post after he explained the mismatch and reiterates that his time series uses EB-only data from 2017 onward, where the program actually exists; there is no comparable 20-year history. He frames resistance as ideological “Rorschach” rather than genuine methodological rebuttal.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

What we find here is that a legitimate program was, and the word I'll use, abused.

Antonio Gracias

You're waiting for your court date, they… file another form to get work authorization… and we automatically send you a Social Security card in the mail. No interview, at all.

Antonio Gracias

This is not political, man. This is about America. It's about securing the American democracy, and we will shine light onto the data when we can.

Antonio Gracias

If it is true that these people illegally voted, I think it’s a thunderclap and it opens wide the aperture on voting illegality and voting reform.

Chamath Palihapitiya

If you're going to make the case for a long-term gain, I need to know what the long-term gain is so I can make the case to the American public as to why they should endure the short-term pain.

Ben Shapiro

Antonio Gracias’s Doge role at SSA and fraud/waste/abuse investigationEnumeration Beyond Entry data surge and non-citizen Social Security numbersAsylum, NTAs, weak ID verification, and downstream access to benefits and votingAccusations of Democratic voter-import motives versus human-rights rationaleTrump’s global tariff rollout, strategy, and recession/inflation risksChina’s potential retaliation, IP theft, and AI/supply-chain competitionAmerican exceptionalism, entrepreneurship, immigration, and future economic strategy

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