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E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more

(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner joins in place of Sacks, and brigadoons! (2:02) Ye's current situation and acquisition of Parler (14:17) Snap drops ~30%, corporate misgovernance, super-voting shares (32:53) Macro outlook, Stability AI's $101M fundraise, VC fund metrics (1:05:38) The difficulty of active stock picking and valuing businesses (1:21:38) Lyft vs Gavin Newsom on Prop 30, PSA from Chamath Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SNAP:NYSE https://www.statista.com/statistics/545967/snapchat-app-dau https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/20/musk-twitter-acquisition-staff-cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/digital-media-firm-stability-ai-raises-funds-at-1-billion-value https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1520643441994387456 https://www.wsj.com/articles/lyft-battles-gavin-newsom-over-california-measure-to-fund-evs-11665864256 https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/30 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostBrad GerstnerguestChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid Friedberghost
Oct 21, 20221h 41mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Kanye, Parler, social media shakeout, venture math, and stock sanity

  1. The episode opens with Kanye West’s planned acquisition of Parler and a broader debate about mental health, media ethics, and the fragmentation of social media platforms. The conversation shifts to Snap’s stock collapse, Apple’s ad privacy changes, and what they reveal about social media business models, governance, and overstaffing in big tech. The besties and guest Brad Gerstner then dig into macroeconomics, interest rates, and why the next decade will reward true operating discipline and cash generation. In the back half, they unpack venture capital returns, fund construction, and why most stock pickers and many VCs will underperform simple indexes in a higher-rate world.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Media platforms should treat clearly manic public figures with restraint, not as ratings bait.

The hosts argue it’s unethical to feature someone in an acute mental health crisis for long-form interviews, both out of compassion for the person and to limit the spread of harmful antisemitic rhetoric that could inspire real-world violence.

Social networks are less monopolies and more editorialized, replaceable app layers.

Friedberg frames Elon buying Twitter and Kanye buying Parler as evidence that users self-select into platforms with specific speech norms, and capital will continue to fund alternatives when groups feel “edited out” of mainstream networks.

User metrics are strong; monetization and Apple’s privacy moves are the real pain points.

Snap, Twitter, and Meta still show sticky daily usage, but Apple’s IDFA changes have slashed ad targeting efficiency and ARPU, exposing how dependent these businesses are on precise tracking and how vulnerable their ad pricing is.

Zero interest rates masked bad governance, bloated headcount, and weak leadership.

The panel stresses that a decade of free capital let tech companies overhire, tolerate poor cost discipline, and indulge dual-class control; higher rates are now forcing layoffs, return-of-capital strategies, and a reset in what governance investors accept.

A huge chunk of recent venture “paper returns” will likely be marked down.

Gersten’s TVPI vs DPI analysis suggests that 2011–2020 vintages are massively over-marked; as funds age, he expects their ultimate cash returns to revert toward long-run averages, implying hundreds of billions in forthcoming write-downs.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

I find it abhorrent to interview somebody when they're in a manic episode like this. I wouldn't do it.

Jason Calacanis

It's not forgiving what they say, but it is having maybe a little bit more compassion in that moment to get them back to their true self.

Chamath Palihapitiya

Not all good companies are good investments. Price of entry matters.

Brad Gerstner

We've gone through an entire decade of under-training an entire generation of people in Silicon Valley.

Unnamed ‘star’ investor summarized by Chamath Palihapitiya

Everyone learns this lesson over time and everyone gets bonked on the head at some point... which is why nearly every stock picker underperforms the index over time.

David Friedberg

Kanye West’s Parler acquisition, antisemitic remarks, and media ethics around mental illnessFragmentation of social media, content moderation, and the role of alternative platformsSnap’s 90% drawdown, Apple’s IDFA changes, ad economics, and platform governanceBig tech cost structures, zero-interest-rate distortion, and the coming era of efficiencyMacro outlook: rates, inflation, earnings resilience, and systemic “breakage” riskVenture capital performance (TVPI vs DPI), over-marking, and portfolio overlapRetail stock picking vs index investing, valuation discipline, and time arbitrageTax policy (California Prop 30), state-level competition, and long-run U.S. tax pressures

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