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E119: Silicon Valley Bank implodes: startup extinction event, contagion risk, culpability, and more

PRODUCER'S NOTE: the zoom video feed went the way of SVB this week - sorry besties! all charts and graphics are still included. (0:00) Bestie intro! (1:57) Overview of the SVB collapse and bank run (17:53) Who or what is to blame? Debating venture debt (37:11) Contagion risk, second- and third-order effects, government backstops (1:00:36) What does this mean for the VC industry? Silicon Valley panic cycle, advice for founders Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html https://s201.q4cdn.com/589201576/files/doc_downloads/2023/03/r/Q1-2023-Investor-Letter.FINAL-030823.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/589201576/files/doc_downloads/2023/03/Q1-2023-Mid-Quarter-Update-vFINAL3-030823.pdf https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1634260576431136768 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymo6Yzjv_KY https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/treasury-closely-watching-silicon-valley-bank-share-plunge https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-ukraine-treasury-secretary-kyiv-visit-volodymyr-zelenskyy https://twitter.com/Rippling/status/1634201986894577665 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-losses-push-silicon-valley-bank-parent-to-raise-capital-125e89d4 https://dfpi.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/337/2023/03/DFPI-Orders-Silicon-Valley-Bank-03102023.pdf?emrc=bedc09 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IAT:NYSEARCA #allin #tech #news

David FriedberghostJason CalacanishostChamath Palihapitiyahost
Mar 10, 20231h 29mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Silicon Valley Bank collapse threatens startups, regional banks, and innovation

  1. The hosts dissect the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), describing it as a “Lehman-sized” extinction‑level event for startups and small tech companies rather than big tech. They explain how rapid interest rate hikes, duration mismatches on SVB’s balance sheet, declining deposits, and a classic bank run combined to push an otherwise solvent bank into insolvency within 36 hours. The conversation assigns blame across SVB’s risk management, regulatory loopholes, and venture capitalists’ failure to enforce cash discipline as markets turned. They warn of systemic contagion to regional banks and call for immediate government backstops to protect depositors, prevent broader runs, and preserve a decade of U.S. innovation.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

SVB’s collapse was driven by a duration mismatch amplified by rapid rate hikes.

SVB parked massive pandemic‑era deposits in long‑dated Treasuries and mortgage‑backed securities; when rates spiked from ~2% to ~5%, those assets dropped sharply in value just as startup deposits were shrinking, forcing distressed sales and triggering panic.

A rational bank run by startups and VCs turned a solvency issue into an acute liquidity crisis.

Once founders saw SVB selling assets and raising capital, and heard peers wiring out, the game‑theoretic best move was to withdraw immediately; $42B left in a day, far exceeding SVB’s liquid cash and securities and pushing it into receivership.

Venture capital failed to enforce necessary burn cuts as the funding environment changed.

Despite clear signals and repeated advice from some experienced investors to extend runway to 2025, many boards let founders keep 2020‑style spending as new funding dried up, accelerating deposit drawdowns and indirectly stressing SVB’s balance sheet.

Venture debt and risky lending should not be funded by ordinary bank deposits.

SVB used depositor money to make ~10% of its loan book in venture debt—loans underwritten more on expectations of future VC rounds than on collateral—creating correlated risk between its asset side (loans) and its depositor base (startups and funds).

Regulatory loopholes around mark‑to‑market and FDIC limits enabled hidden systemic risk.

Banks could hold long‑dated bonds at book value instead of marking them to market, masking losses until forced sales; combined with a $250k FDIC cap for business accounts, this left startups and payroll funds unexpectedly exposed when SVB failed.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

This is basically a Lehman-sized event for Silicon Valley.

David Sacks

A key part of the financial plumbing of Silicon Valley has basically been turned off.

Chamath Palihapitiya

This is little tech. These are the future companies that will keep the United States competitive.

David Sacks

It shouldn’t fail because we can’t get money that is in deposit.

Chamath Palihapitiya

Depositors should not lose money. Stockholders should lose everything.

David Sacks

Mechanics of Silicon Valley Bank’s balance sheet, duration mismatch, and bond lossesHow the startup funding slowdown and persistent high burn led to deposit outflowsVenture debt: structure, historical performance, and hidden systemic risksRegulatory failures: mark‑to‑market loopholes, asset rules, and FDIC limitsContagion risk to regional banks and broader financial systemImmediate and long‑term impacts on startups, VCs, LPs, and innovationPolicy proposals: depositor backstops, higher business FDIC limits, and reforms

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