Skip to content
All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast

E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act

(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:31) Joe Manchin calls out Biden on IRA flip-flop (7:40) Sacks writes GPT-4-powered blog post, OpenAI launches ChatGPT plugins (26:31) Will generative AI be more important than mobile and the internet itself? Making the case for both Google and OpenAI to win generative AI (50:19) Reaching and containing AGI, AI's impact on job destruction (1:16:35) RESTRICT Act's bait and switch Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-inflation-reduction-act-betrayal-joe-manchin-debt-ceiling-budget-fossil-fuels-green-energy-dc37738e https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-give-to-get-model-for-ai-startups https://sharegpt.com/c/jGKq34x https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-plugins https://www.theinformation.com/articles/alphabets-google-and-deepmind-pause-grudges-join-forces-to-chase-openai https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Noogler_Hat.jpg https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments https://twitter.com/peakcooper/status/1639716822680236032 https://www.reddit.com/r/blender/comments/121lhfq/i_lost_everything_that_made_me_love_my_job https://reason.com/2023/03/29/could-the-restrict-act-criminalize-the-use-of-vpns #allin #tech #news

Chamath PalihapitiyahostJason CalacanishostDavid Friedberghost
Mar 31, 20231h 24mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 1:31

    Bestie intros!

    1. CP

      Oh, J Cal's here. Hello, J Cal.

    2. JC

      Hey, how are you?

    3. CP

      Thanks for showing up.

    4. JC

      I've been here the whole time. I, I was just, uh...

    5. CP

      Wow.

    6. JC

      I was just having some of these beautiful salted roasted pistachios.

    7. CP

      (laughs)

    8. JC

      The only problem is when I went to the store, I kid you not, there was a shelf of these, all flavors available except one flavor.

    9. CP

      Salt and vinegar. Sea salt and vinegar.

    10. JC

      The entire-

    11. CP

      We moved the market. We moved the market.

    12. JC

      I am not kidding. I go to the fancy, you know, bespoke, uh-

    13. DS

      The Raley's? You went to The Raley's-

    14. JC

      ... Artisan-

    15. DS

      ... in Truckee?

    16. JC

      I went to The Raley's in Truckee, The Artisanal, and they have, you know, all these overpriced-

    17. DS

      First of all, it's called Artisanal?

    18. JC

      That's what I said, the art stuff, the artistic food. The Artisanal row, where they had this, I kid you not, spicy, salty, no salt, every shelf packed. Then there's one she- shelf I can see straight through to the ice cream.

    19. DS

      But not sea salt and vinegar.

    20. JC

      And I look at the tiny little sign, "Salt and vinegar, shelled nuts."

    21. DS

      Sea salt and vinegar. Sea salt and vinegar.

    22. JC

      "Sea salt and vinegar, Chamoth's shelled nuts, sold out across the country."

    23. DS

      You know, I cannot recommend these more highly. They're incredible.

    24. CP

      (laughs)

    25. DS

      They're delicious.

    26. JC

      You can't recommend your salty nuts more? (laughs)

    27. DS

      They are delicious. My salty nuts are delicious.

    28. NA

      Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sachs. I'm going all in. And I said- We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

    29. CP

      Love you guys.

    30. NA

      Queen of quinoa. I'm going all in.

  2. 1:31 – 7:40

    Joe Manchin calls out Biden on IRA flip-flop

    1. DS

      Did you see Joe Manchin's high heater op-ed in the Wall Street Journal?

    2. JC

      Uh-oh. Lookout.

    3. DS

      Oh my god.

    4. JC

      Yep, Joe Manchin went for it.

    5. DS

      But Manchin's running for president.

    6. JC

      He is, I think... Okay, so let me ask Sachs right there. Sachs, Joe Manchin, Nikki Haley, and who's the guy from Florida?

    7. DS

      What's your question?

    8. JC

      DeSantis.

    9. DS

      By the way, there was a big defection that was leaked this week. Ron Lauder flipped from Trump to DeSantis. That's a big one because Lauder's good for a lot of money, five to 10 million at least.

    10. JC

      Joe Manchin, what impact would he have coming into the race? I'm not trolling you. I'm looking for your honest opinion.

    11. DS

      Well, it depends how he comes in. What did he say in the op-ed?

    12. JC

      He was talking about the insincerity of the Biden administration to control costs and how everybody was incompetent, and it- certainly there's some waste and we can control some spending and everybody needs to grow up and get in a room and just manage the budget for the American people and stop playing politics.

    13. DS

      Yeah, I think the headline of the article actually, to your point, J Cal, was much worse than the substance of the article, Sachs. But if you see the headline, I don't know, Nick, if you can just throw it up there. It was brutal. The headline and the byline of the article I think was more damaging than the substance of the article.

    14. JC

      "Biden's Inflation Reduction Act a Betrayal. Instead of implementing the law as intended, his administration subverts it for ideological, ideological ends."

    15. DS

      I have to think that Joe was responsible for that, for the titling of that article. You don't, you know-

    16. JC

      He would get permission to approve it.

    17. DS

      Right.

    18. JC

      In a byline like this.

    19. CP

      Yeah, and by the way, I think, if you guys remember, we talked about this when that act was first published. And if you guys remember, I, I think I pulled up the CBO data, the CBO model, and it showed for the first five years this thing burns a couple hundred billion dollars, and then there's some expectation that there'll be some sudden boom in revenue in the out years.

    20. DS

      Yeah, right.

    21. CP

      And then you make the money back in the out years. So it's total, like, accounting shenanigans for him to have made the claim in the first place that the IRA was actually gonna be, like, a net deficit reduction or debt reduction. In fact, it's all just accounting shenanigans and it's just a massive spend package, particularly in the near term when it matters most.

    22. DS

      I think I told you guys this, but I think this was, like, when was the last time I was in Washington? Probably, what is it, March now? So maybe it was January I was there, and I saw Schumer and Mark Warner, and I spent about two hours with Manchin. He is really impressive. He's cool, he's interesting, he's thoughtful, he's moderate. Manchin's, like, a formidable guy. So this'll be really interesting if he steps in there and tries to take on everybody.

    23. CP

      So between Nikki Haley and Manchin, where do you, uh, write your check?

    24. DS

      I'd probably write a check to both, to be honest.

    25. JC

      Feels like a good ticket to me. I've always wanted to see the, the cross-party ticket.

    26. DS

      Could you imagine a, a Democrat and Republican merging somehow and, like, running together?

    27. JC

      It would be the greatest-

    28. DS

      Oh my god.

    29. JC

      I've been pitching that for years. I think that's, like, a, a clear path.

    30. DS

      Oh my god. David Freiberg may have just come up with one of the most disruptive ideas in American politics that's ever been floated.

  3. 7:40 – 26:31

    Sacks writes GPT-4-powered blog post, OpenAI launches ChatGPT plugins

    1. CP

      I like this.

    2. JC

      Welcome to the world's greatest podcast. OpenAI launched a bunch of ChatGPT plugins. And I don't know if you saw it, but David Sacks wrote a blog post with ChatGPT. It's an amazing back and forth. I read this back and forth. Explain what you did, Sacks. This was really-

    3. DS

      Right.

    4. JC

      ... like, one of the best conversations I've seen with ChatGPT. I'll pop it up here on the screen, but explain what you did.

    5. DS

      Yeah. Well, I had an idea for a blog post about the use of a, I guess, tactic you could call give to get. I thought it would be a interesting tactic for AI startups to use if they're trying to get ahold of proprietary training data. So, for example, if you wanted to create a, an architect AI, you'd need a lot of plans. Or if you're gonna create, like, a doctor AI, you'd need a lot of lab results or medical reports to train the AI on, and those are hard to get. OpenAI doesn't necessarily have them yet. So, there is an opportunity, I think, for startups to create these AIs in different, you can call them professional verticals. So, the give to get technique would be you give points to your users for uploading that data, and then they can spend those points by using the AI. And anyway, the, the company that came up with this give to get tactic was a company called Jigsaw almost 20 years ago. No one remembers this company. I'm kind of dating myself because I remembered it.

    6. JC

      I do too, yeah.

    7. DS

      But I just had this idea, gee, I wonder if the Jigsaw approach could be used for AI startups? So, I started by going into ChatGPT and I said, "Hey, have you heard of Jigsaw?" And then it had, and then I said, "Tell me about its give to get, you know, approach." And then I said, "Would this approach work for AI startups that want proprietary training data sets?" And it said, "Yes, this is a good idea." And then I gave the architect example and I said, "Can you give me more examples like this?" And it gave me, like, 20 more examples. And then I asked it, just to flesh out various kinds of details. I went down some cul-de-sacs I didn't use. And then at the end, I said, "Can you summarize everything we've just talked about in a blog post?" And it gave me the first draft of a blog post. I then did a substantial amount of editing on most of the blog post, although some of it I just used verbatim. And then I had a couple of people in my firm look at it. They made some good suggestions. So, it's not like the human's completely out of the loop. And then I copy and pasted my edited version back into ChatGPT, said, "Here's my edit." And then I asked for some sugg- suggestions. It made a few small edits and I said, "Okay, great. Just incorporate the edits yourself." Gave me that final output and then I posted it on Substack. A blog that probably would have taken me a week to research and write, if I'd done it at all, I was able to do in a day. And I can't see myself going back now. I think this is just how I'm gonna write all my blog posts is, is use ChatGPT as my researcher, as a writing partner, some cases as an editor, but I'm definitely gonna run it through.

    8. JC

      The thing that I was struck by was just how kind-

    9. DS

      (laughs)

    10. JC

      ... and generous and thoughtful this conversation was. And I just thought, I've never seen Sacks have a conversation where he was so kind to the other person and thoughtful. Right about now, while your friends (laughs) and family are like, "How do we get Sacks to have this conversation with us?" You were super kind to the AI.

    11. CP

      Because it's not a person. It was a robot, number one.

    12. JC

      Oh, no.

    13. DS

      Well, just in case it takes over the world, J-Cal, you can't be too, too, too careful.

    14. CP

      (laughs)

    15. DS

      But no, I think, listen, it's important to give the AI-

    16. JC

      Look at this. Look at, he's so cute. He's like, "Oh, perfect. Thanks."

    17. CP

      Perfect. Perfect thanks. I've never once gotten a thanks from Sacks.

    18. When have you ever used an exclamation mark?

    19. DS

      Actually, scroll up and show that example. The AI actually gave me some information about Jigsaw's point system. Again, the, the rewards that they used.

    20. JC

      Yeah.

    21. DS

      And it was just in text. So, I said down below, "Hey, can you spit that out as a table?"

    22. JC

      Boom.

    23. DS

      And it did instantly. Perfectly.

    24. JC

      That's like a day's work, right? Like, you would have had to have-

    25. DS

      Yes.

    26. JC

      ... an analyst or researcher do a day's work. It's incredible. And, and-

    27. DS

      And then I just screenshotted that and I made it an exhibit in my blog post.

    28. JC

      You also said thank you.

    29. DS

      Well, yeah.

    30. JC

      And that it was, like, delightful back to you. I mean, this is a-

  4. 26:31 – 50:19

    Will generative AI be more important than mobile and the internet itself? Making the case for both Google and OpenAI to win generative AI

    1. JC

      it. But Sacks, you're saying, explicitly, you think this is bigger than the internet itself, bigger than mobile as a platform shift.

    2. DS

      It's definitely top three, and I think it might be the biggest ever. I think, look, I think things could certainly play out the way that Chamath is saying. However, I actually think that OpenAI has demonstrated now with these platform features that it has a lead, a substantial lead, and I actually think that lead is likely to grow in the next year. And let me tell you why. I think it's got a couple of assets here that are hard to replicate. So number one, user attention. I think they've now got, I would guess, hundreds of millions of users, and this thing has caught on like wildfire. Must've been beyond their wildest dream. I think it even surprised them how much this has taken off. It's really captured the public's imagination, and people are discovering new use cases for it every day. If you are sort of the, the number two or number three or the seventh large language model to basically get deployed, uh, behind a chatbot, I just don't think you're gonna get that kind of distribution because the novelty factor will have worn off and people would have already kind of learned to use ChatGPT. So, number one is the hundreds of millions of eyeballs. Number two is, with this developer platform, I think we should describe a couple of other features of it. One of the problems with ChatGPT, if you've used it, is that the training data ends in 2021. And so you very rapidly, for many questions, get to a stopping point where it says, like, "I don't, I don't know the answer to that because I don't have any information about the last two years." Well, one of the plug-ins that OpenAI has introduced itself is called the Browsing plug-in, and it allows ChatGPT to go search the internet. And not just run internet searches, but to run an internet search as if it were a human. So you ask, you ask ChatGPT a question, and it goes to find, it runs a, a search, and then it scours through the list of 20 links, and it doesn't stop until it finds a good answer, and then it comes back to you with just the answer, so it actually saves you the time of clicking through all those loops. And it'll give you the browsing history to show you what it did. That's mind-blowing. They also have a thing called a Retrieval API, which allows developers to share proprietary knowledge bases with ChatGPT. So if you have a company knowledge base or some other kind of content, you can share it with ChatGPT so that ChatGPT can be aware of that, and there are some privacy concerns, but the company has said they're gonna sandbox that data and protect it. As an example, I'm planning on writing a book on SaaS using ChatGPT, and I'm gonna put together all the previous articles and talks I've done as a database so I can then work with that in ChatGPT. So, you're gonna have more and more developers sharing information with ChatGPT. You're gonna have ChatGPT able to update its training based on sort of the last two year, being able to search the internet. And I think that as those hundreds of millions of users use the product, and as developers keep sharing more and more of these datasets, the AI's gonna get smarter and smarter. And then what's gonna happen is both consumers and developers are gonna wanna use or build on the smartest API.

    3. JC

      Yeah, see this is where I think-

    4. DS

      So it feeds on itself.

    5. JC

      You-

    6. DS

      I mean-

    7. JC

      Yeah, I think there might be a... I agree with much of what you're saying, but I do think somebody like Facebook, when they release their language model, which they're about to, is not gonna allow ChatGPT to have any access to the Facebook corpus of data. And then LinkedIn will do the same. They'll block any access to ChatGPT to their data. And so then you might say, "You know what? I'm doing something related to business and business contacts. I need to use the LinkedIn one." And they're just gonna block other people's usage of it and tell you, "Hey, you have to come to our interface and have a pro account on LinkedIn," and this all becomes little islands of data. And so I- I'm not sure that-

    8. DS

      You may be right, Jay Cala. It's too early to have a definitive-

    9. CP

      Yeah.

    10. DS

      ... opinion. But I would say-

    11. CP

      You have to believe plug-ins are gonna be promiscuous.

    12. DS

      Yes.

    13. JC

      No, it's actually-

    14. DS

      Exactly. Plugins are the refutation of your idea.

    15. JC

      Facebook does not have an API. Twitter turned off their API. People who are smart with datasets-

    16. DS

      The biggest companies.

    17. JC

      Quora doesn't let people use its data. So, I just picked three.Those are three incredible datasets that don't allow people, and Craigslist doesn't. So people who are smart do not allow APIs into their data. They keep it for themselves.

    18. DS

      I think there were a lot of people when the App Store rolled out that swore up and down they would never build a mobile app because they didn't want to give Apple that kind of power, that the internet was open, whereas the App Store is closed and curated by Apple. And sure enough, they all, at the end of the day, had to roll out apps, even though in the case of Facebook, it definitely has made them vulnerable because they're downstream of Apple. I mean, Apple now has enormous influence over Facebook's advertising revenue because users have to go through Apple. They never had to do that before with the internet. Nonetheless, Facebook felt compelled to release a mobile app because they knew it was existential for them if they didn't.

    19. JC

      Yep.

    20. DS

      And I believe that what's happening is-

    21. JC

      I think that's one... I don't think it's the right analogy. The right analogy would be Google Search. Does Facebook, does Craigslist allow their data to be indexed inside of Google Search? The answer is no. Right? They block that for a reason. They, and they will write a cease and decease letter.

    22. DS

      Look, fine, so, so you know what? Those guys will stay out of it, but look how much content Google Search already has.

    23. JC

      Yeah.

    24. DS

      And I think that ChatGPT will start by eating a substantial portion of Search, because again, you don't have to go through the 20 links, it just gives you the answer. It's gonna eat a substantial portion of browser usage and app usage, 'cause you're just gonna tell ChatGPT what you wanna do. It will go book your plane ticket, it will go book your hotel room.

    25. JC

      Yeah, see this is another part where-

    26. DS

      And the apps that wanna play in this... Hold on.

    27. JC

      Yeah.

    28. DS

      The apps that wanna play in this will benefit. So there'll be a powerful incentive for applications-

    29. JC

      Yeah.

    30. DS

      ... to get an advantage by participating. Let me finish my point.

  5. 50:19 – 1:16:35

    Reaching and containing AGI, AI's impact on job destruction

    1. CP

      are toast.

    2. JC

      A lot of people are starting to think we're moving a little bit too fast when it comes to OpenAI's incredible performance with ChatGPT-4, the plug-ins, and all this. And so the Future of Life Institute, which was formed in 2015, it's a nonprofit that's focused on de-risking major technology like AI, uh, they did a petition titled Pause Giant AI Experiments, An Open Letter. A bunch of computer scientists, uh, signed this letter and, uh, the letter, quote, says, "We must ask ourselves, should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop non-human minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete, and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?" A number of notable tech leaders, like Elon, Steve Wozniak, and a handful of DeepMind researchers have signed it. What do you guys think of the latter? Are, are we gonna slow down or not? And then we could ask the question generally, how close are we getting to AGI, which is what everybody's scared of, is that these agents start working with each other in the background to do things that are against human interest. I know it sounds like science fiction, but there is a theory that when these AIs start operating on their own, like we explained in the previous sort of segment here, uh, with plug-ins and they make agents that are operating based on feedback from each other, could they get out of control and be mischievous and then work against human interest? So, what do you think, Sax?

    3. DS

      I think there's a difference between what could happen in the short term and then what could happen in the long term. I think in the short term, everything we're seeing right now is very positive. And let me just give you an example. There was a really interesting tweet storm about a guy who wrote about how ChatGPT saved his dog. Um, did you guys see this? This was-

    4. JC

      Yeah, I shared this with everyone.

    5. DS

      ... this was one of the really mind-blowing ones to me, uh, use cases. So his dog was sick, took him to a vet, vet prescribed some medication. Three days later, dog's still sick. In fact, even worse. So the, the owner of the, the pet just literally copied and pasted the lab result for the blood test for the dog with all the, the lab values into ChatGPT and said, "What could this be?" Like, "What's your likely diagnosis?" ChatGPT gave three possible answers, three illnesses. The first one was what the vet basically had diagnosed with, so that wasn't it. The second one was excluded by another test, so he then went to a, a second vet and said, "Listen, I think my dog has the third one." And vet prescribes something, and sure enough, dog is cured, saved. So that's really mind-blowing, that even though ChatGPT hasn't been specifically optimized, as far as we know, for lab results, it could figure this out. The reason I'm mentioning this is it gives you a sense of the potential here to cure disease, to, you know, like, I could see major medical breakthroughs based on the AI in the next 5 or 10 years. Now, the question is, like, what happens in the long term? You know, as the AI gets smarter and smarter, and we are kinda getting into the realm of science fiction, but here would be the scenario, is you're on ChatGPT 10 or 20 or whatever it is, or maybe some other company's AI, and the developers ask the AI, "Hey, how could you make yourself better? Now do it," which is a question we ask ChatGPT all the time in different contexts. And so ChatGPT will already have the ability to write perfect code by that point. I think, you know, code writing is one of the, I think, of its superpowers already. So it gives itself the ability to rewrite its code, to auto-update it, to recursively make itself better. I mean, at that point, isn't that like a speciation event? Doesn't that very quickly lead to the singularity if the AI has the capability to rewrite its own code, to make itself better, and you know, won't it very quickly write billions of versions of itself? And, you know, it's very hard to predict what that future looks like. Now, I also don't know how far away we are from that. That could be 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, whatever. But I, I think it's a question worth asking for sure.

    6. JC

      Is it worth slowing down though, Sax? Should we be pausing because, based on what you've said, and I think you've framed it properly, when these things hit a certain point and they start reinforcing their own learning with each other, they can go at infinite speed, right? This, this, this is not comparable to human speed. They could be firing off millions, billions of different-

    7. CP

      I think you're right.

    8. JC

      ... uh, scenarios.

    9. CP

      We're definitely now on this fuck around, find out curve.

    10. JC

      Yeah.

    11. CP

      And so there's only one way to really find out, which is somebody's gonna push the boundaries, the competitive dynamics will get the better of some startup. They'll do something that people will look back on and say, "Whoa, that was a little... That was a bridge too far."So yeah, we're just- it's just a matter of time.

    12. DS

      Yeah, I- I think we're not gonna slow down. I actually think it's going the other way. I think things are gonna speed up. And- and the reason they're gonna speed up is because the one thing Silicon Valley is really good at is taking advantage of a platform shift. And so when you think about, like, all the VCs and all the founders, you know, everyone accuses us of being lemmings. And so when there's, like, kind of like a fake platform shift or people kind of glom onto something that ends up not being real, everyone's kind of got egg on their faces. But the flip side of that is, that when the platform shift is real, Silicon Valley is really good at throwing money at it. The talent knows how to go after it and they keep making it better and better. And so that's the dynamic we're in right now. You look at 70% of the last YC class was ready, all AI startups. I'm sure the next one will probably be 95%. So, I think that we're on a path here where the pace of innovation is actually gonna speed up. Companies are gonna compete with each other, they're gonna seek to invent new capabilities. And I think the results are gonna be, all be incredibly positive for some period of time. Like, you know, the vet example, we're gonna cure illnesses, we're gonna solve major problems.

    13. JC

      So if they are positive, then we invest more, we trust more. But the paradox of that, as Chamath is pointing out, Friedberg, is if we trust it more, we invest more, than some person in a free market is gonna say, "You know what? I need to beat ChatGPT, therefore I'm gonna take the rails off this thing. I'm gonna let it go faster and take off some constraints because I need to win and I'm so far behind." How do you feel about that scenario that sort of Chamath and Sax teed up, Friedberg?

    14. CP

      I think there's like... GPT-3 I think ran on 700 gigs. Is that right? G- does anyone know what GPT-4 runs on? It's gotta be on some number that's, you know, not too, not- not, uh, many multiples of that. But, look, someone could make a copy of this thing and fork it and develop an entirely new model. I think that's what's incredible about software and digital technology and also kind of, you know, means that it's very hard to contain. Similar to, like, what we've seen in- in biology ever since biology got digitized through DNA sequencing and the ability to kind of express molecules through gene editing. You know, you can't control or contain the ability to do gene editing work at all, because everyone knows the code, everyone can make CRISPR-Cas molecules, everyone can make gene editing systems in any lab anywhere. Once it was out, it was out. And now there's hundreds of variants for- for doing gene editing, many of which are much improved over CRISPR-Cas9. I use that as an analogy because it was this breakthrough technology that allowed us to precisely, specifically edit genomes and that allowed us to engineer biology and do these incredible things where biology effectively became software. And remember, CRISPR-Cas9 gave us effectively a- a- a word processing type tool, find and replace. And the tooling that's evolved from that has, is- is much better. So, whatever is underlying, whatever the parameters are for GPT-4, whatever that model is, if a close enough replicant of that model exists, or a copy of that model is made, and then new training data and new evolutions can be done separately, you could see many, many variants that kind of emerge from here. And I think this is a good echoing of Chamath's point, we don't know what's ultimately gonna win. Is there enough of a network effect in the plug-in model, as Sax pointed out, to really give OpenAI the sustaining competitive advantage? I'm not sure. The model runs on 700 gigs. That's less data than, you know, fits on my iPhone. So, you know, I could take that model, I could take the parameters of that model, and I could create an entirely new version. I could fork it and I could do something entirely new with it. So, I- I don't think you can contain it. I don't think that this idea that we can put in place some regulatory constraints and say it's illegal to do this or, you know, try and, you know, create IP around it or protections around it is realistic at this state. The power of the tool is so extraordinary, the extendibility of the tools are so extraordinary. So the economic and, you know, the various incentives are there for, you know, o- other models to emerge. And whether they're directly copied from someone hacking into OpenAI servers and making a copy of that model or whether they're, you know, open sourced or whether that someone generates something that's 95% as good and then it forks and a whole new class of models emerge, I think this is like, it- it's, as Sax pointed out, highlighting the kind of economic market uprooting, social uprooting potential and many models will- will- will start to kind of come to- to market.

    15. JC

      What do we think the impact of white collar jobs getting annihilated by this technology, if that in fact comes to pass?

    16. CP

      I wanna say one thing on this. Yeah, look, I- I-

    17. JC

      Well, let me just share-

    18. CP

      Yeah.

    19. JC

      Can I just give one example here?

    20. CP

      Yeah.

    21. JC

      So here's a Reddit post that I was made aware of earlier this week, "I lost everything that made me love my job through Midjourney overnight. I am employed as a 3D artist at a small games company of 10 people. Our team is two people," he basically explains. He says since Midjourney version five came out, he's not an artist anymore, nor a 3D artist. All they do is prompting, photoshopping, and implementing good-looking pictures. And he basically says this happened overnight, and he had no choice. His boss also had no choice. He says, "I am now able to create, rig, and animate a character that spit out from MJ, uh, Midjourney, in two to three days. Before it took us several weeks in 3D." The difference is that he cares about his, you know, job and for his boss, it's just a huge time money-saver. He's no longer making art, and the person who was number two in the organization who didn't make as good content as him, is now embracing this technology because it curries favor with his boss. And he ends basically saying getting a job in the game industry is already hard, but leaving a company and a nice team because AI took my job feels very dystopian. I doubt...It would be better in a different company also. I am between grief and anger, and I am sorry for using-

    22. CP

      My gosh.

    23. JC

      ... your art, fellow artists.

    24. CP

      This is yet another reason that Figma really needs to close its, uh, acquisition from Adobe. I mean, let's like, the value of these apps are just getting gutted. If you take a workflow management tool for things like design and imagery, and you reduce it by an order of 90%, it's like, what is that app experience worth? And how could you replicate it if you were a big company that already has distribution? That's one comment. But what I would tell you, Jason, to answer the white collar question is I think there are a handful of companies you need to look at exclusively, because they will be the first ones to really figure out how to displace human labor. And that is TCS, so Tata Consulting Services, Accenture, Cognizant. These are all the folks that do coding for hire work at scale. I think Accenture has something like 750,000 employees. So the incentive to sort of squeeze OpEx, to create better utilization rates, to increase profitability is quite obvious. It always has been. They will be the first people to figure out how to use these tools at scale. Before the law firms, or the accounting firms, or any of those folks even sort of try to figure out how to displace white collar labor, I think it's going to be the coding jobs and it's going to be the coding for hire jobs that companies like Accenture and TCS-

    25. JC

      So those business processing-

    26. CP

      ... you know, do for, for other people.

    27. JC

      ... developer kind of folks, they're gonna need half as many people? 25% as many people?

    28. CP

      We're gonna find out the efficient frontier.

    29. Yeah.

    30. DS

      I see it a different way. I mean, this argument that productivity leads to job loss has been made for hundreds of years, and it's always been refuted. When you make human beings more productive, it leads to more prosperity, more wealth-

Episode duration: 1:24:28

Install uListen for AI-powered chat & search across the full episode — Get Full Transcript

Transcript of episode qQ544sWC8ZQ

Get more out of YouTube videos.

High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.

Add to Chrome