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E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth

(0:00) Addressing the podcast hack (2:55) Macro picture: inflation cools, what happens to rates, market sentiment, soft landing, tech run-up (20:34) Consumer sentiment: demand crash coming? (30:31) BREAKING: Ripple gets big win in SEC case, token rips (36:33) Lina Khan's losing streak, "spray and pray" strategy, overzealous regulators (51:08) EV supply/demand mismatch (1:04:58) Fraught NATO summit, ammo crisis, Sweden joins NATO (1:18:52) Science Corner: New paper on reversing cellular aging Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-price-index-report-june-inflation-ede7f4b1 https://fortune.com/2023/06/05/larry-summers-floats-idea-half-point-interest-rate-hike-july https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-inflation-goes-down-soft-landing-odds-improve-5166e6af https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-world-crowds-universal-studios-florida-36b0a579 https://www.statista.com/statistics/290673/auto-loan-rates-usa https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/used-cars-prices-us-economy https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/revenue https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-says-sec-lawsuit-vs-ripple-labs-can-proceed-trial-some-claims-2023-07-13 https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-activision-blizzard-deal-ftc-hearing-d42675f1 https://www.ftc.gov/advice-guidance/competition-guidance/guide-antitrust-laws/single-firm-conduct/predatory-or-below-cost-pricing https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/07/13/ftc-openai-chatgpt-sam-altman-lina-khan https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1678526061154295808 https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/unsold-electric-cars-are-piling-up-on-dealer-lots https://mdevelopers.com/blog/technology-adoption-curve-everything-that-you-need-to-know https://www.investing.com/analysis/brics-countries-planning-new-goldbacked-currency-200639843 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/economic-policy/how-brics-countries-have-overtaken-the-g7-in-gdp-based-on-ppps https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/24/more-than-30-countries-want-to-join-the-brics https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1679141703603703808 https://twitter.com/tobi/status/1679114154756669441 https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-races-to-secure-turkish-support-for-nato-bid-2452c14f https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1679229577732792320 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/14/ukraine-will-not-be-offered-timeline-for-nato-membership-at-summit-in-july https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/11/zelensky-nato-ukraine-membership-timeline https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/world/europe/uk-ukraine-ben-wallace.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-munitions-shortage-ukraine-joe-biden-pentagon-defense-military-congress-4e6d6576 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1678463164864667658 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12276665/President-claims-Zelensky-NEEDS-cluster-munitions-running-ammunition.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/joe-biden-cluster-munitions-ukraine/index.html https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-may-use-similar-weapons-if-us-supplies-cluster-bombs-ukraine-2023-07-11 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nato-countries-maps-list-membership-requirements https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/29/russia-condemns-nato-invitation-finland-sweden https://www.aging-us.com/article/204896/pdf #allin #tech #news

Chamath PalihapitiyahostJason CalacanishostDavid FriedberghostGuestguest
Jul 13, 20231h 28mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Inflation cools, markets surge, regulators stumble, and aging rewired

  1. The hosts debate whether cooling inflation and resilient consumer spending signal a soft landing or mask deeper structural pressures that will keep interest rates higher for longer, while also parsing implications for equities, SaaS, and EV demand.
  2. They analyze two major regulatory setbacks: Ripple’s partial courtroom victory against the SEC on XRP and the FTC’s failed effort to block Microsoft’s Activision acquisition, framing both as checks on overzealous regulators and catalysts for crypto and tech M&A.
  3. Geopolitically, they argue over NATO expansion, Ukraine’s frustrated bid for membership, and the risks of escalating conflict with Russia, including U.S. cluster munitions and strained ammunition supplies.
  4. In Science Corner, a new breakthrough in cellular rejuvenation via small-molecule “cocktails” is highlighted as a potentially epoch-defining step toward reversing aging and creating practical longevity therapies.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Markets can rally even with higher-for-longer interest rates if sentiment turns.

Chamath argues that once investors believe the worst is behind them, trillions parked in defensive assets will rotate into equities, and by the time consensus recognizes the shift, much of the upside will already be gone.

Short-term cost-cutting is not a durable substitute for real innovation.

Big tech stocks bounced largely because they stopped wasteful spending, but the hosts stress that long-term value will accrue to companies with genuine product–market fit and usage-driven growth, not just austerity.

Rising credit costs are beginning to bite consumers and autos in particular.

With auto loan rates roughly doubling and most new cars financed, used car prices and EV demand outside Tesla are softening, suggesting early signs of consumer strain even as headline economic data looks resilient.

Ripple’s court win sharply weakens the SEC’s “everything is a security” stance.

A judge ruled XRP sales on public exchanges were not securities transactions, which the hosts see as a major precedent that undermines the SEC’s aggressive crypto posture and likely emboldens other token issuers to fight rather than settle.

FTC’s aggressive, scattershot antitrust strategy is backfiring in court.

Lina Khan’s repeated losses, including on Microsoft–Activision, are portrayed as ideologically driven and poorly targeted, weakening institutional credibility and missing more obvious anticompetitive issues like bundling, app-store lock-in, and dark patterns.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

All roads, at least right now, look like the market is getting set to go materially higher.

Chamath Palihapitiya

The idea that software businesses generate long-term profits has, so far, unfortunately, been a fallacy.

Chamath Palihapitiya

I don’t see how you can have a scenario of even higher interest rates from here along with higher stock prices.

David Sacks

This ability to actually make cells youthful again can, in fact, ultimately result in a pill or a series of pills that can reverse aging.

David Friedberg

We should shatter Google into a thousand pieces and scatter it to the winds.

David Sacks

Macro environment: inflation cooling, interest rates, and prospects for a soft landingEquity markets, SaaS business models, and capital allocation dynamicsConsumer health: credit costs, car financing, EV oversupply, and spending behaviorCrypto regulation: Ripple’s XRP ruling, SEC strategy, and token classificationAntitrust and regulation: FTC under Lina Khan, Microsoft–Activision, and big tech powerGeopolitics: NATO summit, Ukraine’s membership bid, and NATO expansion to Sweden/FinlandScience & longevity: small-molecule reprogramming to reverse cellular aging

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