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E152: Real estate chaos, WeWork bankruptcy, Biden regulates AI, Ukraine's “Cronkite Moment” & more

(0:00) Bestie intros, All-In CEO talk, and Chamath's research product (10:49) Ukraine has its “Cronkite Moment” (16:56) Market outlook: are we in for a Q4 rally? (22:05) CRE chaos: SF's firesales, understanding the second-order effects from CRE debtholders (41:38) WeWork will reportedly file for bankruptcy as soon as next week, Sacks makes the case for a turnaround (46:42) Biden's Executive Order on AI: end game, regulatory capture, confusion over clarity as a strategy (1:08:07) Silicon Valley's shift right Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://twitter.com/Jason https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1718722437217685810 https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1719461817699733831 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1719887650688282786 https://sacks.substack.com https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zelensky-war-time-magazine https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1719815317000733153 https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2022-volodymyr-zelensky https://twitter.com/RothCRE/status/1719833548780195882 https://twitter.com/real_bill_gross/status/1720094066183139359 https://twitter.com/real_bill_gross/status/1719010907806904452 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/27/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-action-to-create-more-affordable-housing-by-converting-commercial-properties-to-residential-use https://www.kqed.org/news/11957640/budget-deep-dive-san-francisco https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-plans-to-file-for-bankruptcy-as-early-as-next-week-1fdcb6a5 https://s23.q4cdn.com/100276410/files/doc_financials/2023/q2/WeWork-2023-Q2-Press-Release-FINAL.pdf https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence https://hardcoresoftware.learningbyshipping.com/p/211-regulating-ai-by-executive-order https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-biden-worried-ai-mission-impossible-dead-reckoning-1235775115 https://ai.meta.com/llama https://chamath.substack.com/p/the-case-for-big-action-to-regulate https://twitter.com/ImMeme0/status/1713413678765126062 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1259638112688304129 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1720112859198419191 #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid FriedberghostHost (uncertain which: Calacanis/Palihapitiya/Friedberg/Sacks)host
Nov 2, 20231h 28mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Real estate reckoning, WeWork collapse, AI overreach, and political realignment

  1. The hosts discuss professionalizing the All-In brand with a new CEO, live events, and creator-economy projects, while Chamath details his new research-focused content initiative. They then dive into the Ukraine war’s “Cronkite moment,” arguing Time’s critical Zelensky profile signals elite recognition that the war is unwinnable even if Washington remains committed. A major portion of the conversation examines the growing crisis in commercial real estate, the impending WeWork bankruptcy, and how distress, regulatory responses, and fire-sale pricing could reshape cities and banks. Finally, they dissect Biden’s AI executive order and broader progressive politics, warning of regulatory capture, overregulation of software, and a centrist shift in Silicon Valley away from the Democratic Party.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

All-In is moving from side project to a real media/events business.

With over 240 CEO applicants, the hosts want a professional leader to scale summits, potential tours, community building (online and offline), and possibly consumer products without changing the free, ad-free nature of the pod.

Ukraine may be entering a perception tipping point, even if policy lags.

Sacks argues Time’s article quoting Zelensky’s own aides calling the war unwinnable is analogous to Walter Cronkite’s Vietnam turn, shifting elite and public sentiment long before Washington policy actually changes.

Commercial real estate losses are huge, under-recognized, and politically sensitive.

Office buildings in San Francisco are selling for 10–20% of replacement cost, implying 40–50% impairments on some loans, but banks still carry roughly $3T of CRE at par, making mark-downs dangerous for balance sheets and likely to invite federal interventions.

Distress can create outsized upside for patient capital in real estate and WeWork.

Sacks notes the adage that the third owner makes the money: a private equity buyer could use bankruptcy to shed bad WeWork leases, renegotiate top-of-market rents, and inherit billions of dollars of already-spent buildout at a fraction of original cost.

Biden’s AI executive order is sprawling, premature, and system-focused instead of outcome-focused.

Friedberg and Sacks criticize the EO’s parameter-count thresholds, content watermarking, and multi-agency mandates as unworkable, vulnerable to regulatory capture, and likely to push AI and software innovation to less-regulated countries.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

“I consider this to be the Cronkite moment of the war when Zelenskyy’s own inner circle is saying that the war is lost.”

David Sacks

“These book values are illegitimate… half the [San Francisco commercial real estate] debt should be written off.”

David Sacks

“There’s an old saying in real estate: it’s the third owner who makes all the money… and that’s going to happen here too [with WeWork].”

David Sacks

“We are taking this statistical guessing and we’re getting exponentially good at it… but by no means has there been a proven use case that is 10x in productivity.”

Chamath Palihapitiya

“We’re gonna take the one part of our economy that has been free market and relatively unregulated—software—and we’re gonna create a new federal agency to manage it.”

David Sacks

Professionalizing the All-In Podcast: CEO search, events, community, and CPG ideasChamath’s ‘Learn With Me’ content, research process, and creator-economy participationUkraine war’s ‘Cronkite moment’ and shifting perceptions of Zelensky and the conflictCommercial real estate crisis, bank balance sheets, and San Francisco as a test caseWeWork’s likely bankruptcy, lease restructuring, and distressed-asset opportunityBiden’s AI executive order, regulatory overreach, and risks to U.S. tech competitivenessSilicon Valley’s political realignment, wokeness backlash, and concerns about big government

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