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E162: Live from Davos! Milei goes viral, Adam Neumann's headwinds, streaming's broken model & more

(0:00) Live from the WEF: "Oh Davos, Kumbaya" (4:25) Why Davos lost its luster, plus major moments: Milei's speech, Jamie Dimon on Trump (21:53) Boeing's regulatory capture leading to negative impact on consumer safety (35:16) Adam Neumann facing familiar challenges at his new startup, Flow (50:24) Evaluating "tech-enabled businesses" vs. traditional businesses that are utilizing technology (1:00:47) Streaming at a crossroads: is the business model broken? (1:20:51) Science Corner: New study on microplastics in water bottles (1:32:42) All-In Poker Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://twitter.com/Jason https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/dschlopesisback/status/1747025441825640681 https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1747724966941139276 https://twitter.com/andrewrsorkin/status/1746723727574794537 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1746951952578298264 https://twitter.com/aphysicist/status/1747868626948907325 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/special-address-by-javier-milei-president-of-argentina https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/clients/summary?id=D000000100 https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/top-spenders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXMO0bhPhCw https://www.dodig.mil/reports.html/article/2871623/audit-of-the-business-model-for-transdigm-group-inc-and-its-impact-on-departmen https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TDG:NYSE https://stacksonmain.com/gallery https://www.societylasolas.com/photogallery https://therealdeal.com/national/nashville/2024/01/12/adam-neumann-faces-shortfalls-on-flow-property-in-nashville https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/inside-nbcs-100-million-peacock-nfl-playoff-game-gamble https://www.sportsvideo.org/2024/01/16/peacocks-nfl-playoff-exclusive-sets-live-streaming-records https://www.businessofapps.com/data/disney-plus-statistics https://www.businessofapps.com/data/netflix-statistics https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-are-canceling-more-streaming-plans-as-prices-balloon-153035743.html https://www.manscaped.com/products/crop-preserver-manscaping https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2300582121 https://www.xometry.com/resources/materials/polyethylene https://www.bpf.co.uk/plastipedia/how-is-plastic-made.aspx https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/france-bans-plastic-packaging-fruit-vegetables-2021-10-11 https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/plastic-wars #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid Friedberghost
Jan 18, 20241h 38mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Davos mocked, Milei praised, and capitalism’s faults ruthlessly dissected

  1. The hosts open with satirical jabs at the World Economic Forum in Davos, arguing it has become a self-parody of ‘surplus elites’ more focused on status than substance. They highlight Javier Milei’s fiery pro-market speech and Jamie Dimon’s praise of Trump’s policies as rare moments of honesty that directly challenged Davos orthodoxy on collectivism and globalization. The conversation then broadens into systemic critiques of regulatory capture (Boeing, defense contractors), late‑stage capitalism, and the mislabeling of capital‑intensive or real‑world businesses as ‘tech.’ They also break down the broken economics of streaming, the risks and tradeoffs of plastics and microplastics, and finish with lighter banter about poker and subscriptions, underscoring consumer fatigue with endless recurring charges.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Davos has shifted from status symbol to reputational liability.

Attending the World Economic Forum now requires public justification rather than flexing, as rising populism and visible hypocrisies (private jets plus carbon sermons, elites preaching socialism) have turned it into a cultural punchline.

Milei’s speech crystallized a pro‑market backlash against collectivism.

Using Argentina’s decline from early‑20th‑century prosperity to chronic crisis, Milei argued that well‑intentioned collectivist policies, relativist ‘fairness’ politics, and expanding state control reliably lead to inflation, stagnation, and poverty.

Regulatory capture and lack of competition erode safety and accountability.

Boeing’s lobbying, watered‑down safety rules, and a de facto duopoly with Airbus, plus sole‑source defense suppliers like TransDigm, create environments where firms can overcharge, under‑innovate, and grow complacent without market discipline.

Misclassifying real‑world, asset‑heavy businesses as ‘tech’ leads investors astray.

Flow and WeWork show that great ‘experiences’ don’t fix bad capital structure or timing; real estate economics (purchase price, leverage, interest rates) dominate, and tech VCs chasing fees risk treating fee generation as the business, not returns.

True software and marketplace businesses differ sharply from ‘tech‑enabled’ ones.

The hosts stress looking at COGS and gross margins: pure software has tiny marginal costs and high margins; physical COGS or inventory signal a fundamentally different, lower‑margin business where competition pushes profits toward normal levels.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

Davos has become a parody of itself.

David Sacks

Socialism has failed in all countries where it was attempted.

David Friedberg (quoting Javier Milei’s speech)

I have not seen any good answer to accountability other than competition.

Chamath Palihapitiya

If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck. It’s not a tech company.

Chamath Palihapitiya

I personally have never seen a B2C subscription business that works. The churn is just too high.

David Sacks

The evolving perception and legitimacy of Davos and the World Economic ForumJavier Milei’s anti‑collectivist speech and Argentina as a cautionary taleRegulatory capture, safety, and monopolistic dynamics in aviation (Boeing, TransDigm)Adam Neumann’s Flow, real estate capital structure, and VC fee incentivesWhat is and isn’t a true ‘tech’ business: margins, COGS, and tech‑enabled modelsStreaming platforms’ churn, overspending on content, and bundling/consolidationMicroplastics in bottled beverages, health uncertainties, and plastics tradeoffs

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