E24: Markets trend down, political pandemic manipulation, stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/MikeSylvan Referenced in the show: NY Magazine - Zero COVID Risk Is the Wrong Standard https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/school-opening-science-coronavirus-teacher-unions-zeroism.html Released COVID-19 Response Contracts https://covid19.ca.gov/contracts Chesa's "response" to Sacks https://twitter.com/chesaboudin/status/1366508970102247424 GoFundMe for SF DA reporter https://www.gofundme.com/f/report-on-chesa-boudin-san-francisco-crime The Verge - Entire school board resigns in shame after forgetting their WebEx call was public https://www.theverge.com/tldr/2021/2/21/22294457/oakley-school-board-resigns-zoom Show Notes: 0:00 Markets tank, reasons for optimism in the short-term 15:29 Breaking down the stimulus 24:12 California's COVID emergency stimulus mishaps, political manipulation via "Zeroism" 38:27 Biological Patriot Act, freedom of choice post-vaccination 49:23 Newsom recall update, SF DA Chesa Boudin's high school friend responds to Sacks, SF bureaucratic issues 1:00:33 Grading Biden's first 60 days in office, Oakley School Board mishap, teacher's union issues, Jason's red pill bender #allin #tech #news

Chamath PalihapitiyahostJason CalacanishostDavid Friedberghost

Mar 5, 20211h 10mWatch on YouTube ↗

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Tech bloodbath, stimulus backlash, and looming ‘biological Patriot Act’ fears

The hosts discuss the sharp downturn in tech and SPAC markets, tying it to rising interest rates, inflation expectations, and the end of ultra-cheap money. They argue that the new $1.9T stimulus is economically excessive and politically pork-filled, warning about long-term debt and moral hazard. They criticize ongoing COVID restrictions, ‘zero COVID’ thinking, teachers’ unions, and mismanaged state-level spending, especially in California, predicting a backlash via recall elections. The conversation ends with concerns over vaccine passports as a potential “biological Patriot Act” and a broader call for centrism, competition, and accountability in government and unions.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Rising rates are forcing a repricing of growth and speculative assets.

As treasury yields increase and the risk-free rate moves off zero, long-duration growth stocks, SPACs, and levered hedge fund positions are being sold off and repriced against safer bond returns.

SPACs are losing their ‘synthetic bond’ appeal as yields rise.

With higher bond yields, the prior logic of using SPACs as risk-adjusted, redeemable cash-like instruments weakens, leaving mostly true equity holders and exposing weaker deals to redemptions and ‘busted’ mergers.

The $1.9T stimulus is seen as overshooting the economic need.

Given a rapidly improving jobs picture and a bottom that was effectively ‘priced in’ when the economy shut down, the hosts argue a targeted, means-tested package would suffice, rather than broad checks and large state bailouts funded by future debt.

Regulated, government-funded sectors are where inflation is hiding.

They note that healthcare, education, and housing—heavily regulated and often paid for by government—have seen massive price inflation and outsized shareholder gains, unlike more competitive consumer sectors.

Pandemic ‘zero COVID’ thinking risks permanent emergency powers.

The panel warns that using the standard of ‘no risk’ or ‘zero cases’ to justify continued lockdowns, school closures, and no-bid contracts could normalize extraordinary government control well after vaccines are widely available.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

At this run rate, I can lose a trillion dollars.

— Chamath Palihapitiya

Never let a crisis reach its end.

— David Sacks

The pandemic becomes an enemy that must be destroyed at all costs, and any compromise could lead to death and is therefore unacceptable.

— David Sacks (paraphrasing Jonathan Chait’s ‘zeroism’ concept)

If you've been vaccinated, you will not die.

— David Sacks

Are we some third-world fucking banana republic?

— Chamath Palihapitiya

Tech market selloff, inflation expectations, and rising interest ratesSPAC dynamics, cost of capital, and deleveraging feedback loopsEconomic recovery, stimulus bill design, and long-term U.S. debt burdenInflation in healthcare, education, and housing vs. regulated marketsCOVID policy: endgame, ‘zeroism,’ vaccines, and messaging failuresPolitical misuse of the pandemic: pork spending, no-bid contracts, and blue-state bailoutsTeachers’ unions, school closures, recalls, and emerging pushback in California

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