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All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast

E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg

0:00 Jason checks in on Chamath, Sacks & Friedberg, opening up their social circles, outdoor activities & more 9:31 Issues with politicizing matters of public health, deaths decreasing while new cases spike, masks, lockdowns & more 20:56 Viral videos, doxxing bad behavior & cancel culture 25:39 Reforming law enforcement, separating police from the military, changing police incentives 36:42 Are public unions too powerful? How a lack of leadership has led us here 41:49 Facebook vs. Twitter on free speech, Zuckerberg's relationship with Peter Thiel, valuing comfort over freedom of expression 59:24 John Bolton's book controversy 1:03:14 Movements in the COVID vaccine space 1:07:38 Trump vs. Biden: Who has the upper hand? 1:14:24 Who should Biden pick as VP?0:01 Jason checks in on Chamath, Sacks & Friedberg, opening up their social circles, outdoor activities & more 9:31 Issues with politicizing matters of public health, deaths decreasing while new cases spike, masks, lockdowns & more 20:56 Viral videos, doxxing bad behavior & cancel culture 25:39 Reforming law enforcement, separating police from the military, changing police incentives 36:42 Are public unions too powerful? How a lack of leadership has led us here 41:49 Facebook vs. Twitter on free speech, Zuckerberg's relationship with Peter Thiel, valuing comfort over freedom of expression 59:24 John Bolton's book controversy 1:03:14 Movements in the COVID vaccine space 1:07:38 Trump vs. Biden: Who has the upper hand? 1:14:24 Who should Biden pick as VP?

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid Friedberghost
Jun 20, 20201h 18mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 9:31

    Jason checks in on Chamath, Sacks & Friedberg, opening up their social circles, outdoor activities & more

    1. JC

      All right, everybody. Welcome back to the All In Podcast. We're here with Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks. Our usual, usual foursome as we, uh, chop up the business news, uh, and what's going on. (smacks lips) And, uh, just as a point of order, the frequency of this show is, uh... Well, don't, don't ask-

    2. CP

      As we feel like it.

    3. JC

      As we feel like it, correct. Uh, so do not ask me to advertise on the podcast 'cause Chamath banned advertising, and do not ask me when the next one is. The next one is when Chamath decides he wants to go on a rant. Um, but what, how, how are you holding up, uh, Bestie C?

    4. CP

      Uh, Bestie C is doing pretty well.

    5. JC

      Yeah. Uh, uh, and the family, everything? A- ar- have you come out of quarantine in any way? This is the first question I have for people is, has your behavior changed now as we go into, I think what most people are calling phase two? Any change in what you're doing and the risk you're willing to take? Chamath.

    6. CP

      Um, that's a really good question. Um, you know, I, I, I, I've kind of ventured out a little bit, um, but, uh, I just kind of put on a mask. The only place I don't wear a mask is when I walk around my house, um, just because it's, uh, you know, I live in the suburbs and so there's just so much space between people that you don't really run into anybody. Um, but if I have to go to Walgreens or CVS or whatever, I always bring a mask and gloves. Um, uh, so I've got, I ventured out a little bit, but, you know, nothing, nothing meaningful to be quite honest.

    7. JC

      Um, and Sacks, uh, you're still out of the country in an undisclosed location. Uh, how are you feeling about what risks you're willing to take? Uh, you know, small groups of people, are you going out to a restaurant? Are you seeing other people? How, how do you look at the risk you're willing to take personally?

    8. DS

      I've, I've adjusted my risk profile, I think, um, quite a bit. Um, so I mean, the, the learning over the past, uh, few months was just that relatively, that, that the fatality rate for, say, relatively healthy people under 50 without risk factors is, you know, 50 times lower than, um, say, you know, someone under, over 60 or someone who has risk factors. And so, um, I'm not being reckless, but, um, I'm willing to kind of re-engage in social behavior among, um, groups of friends. And, um, on the theory that, you know, all of my friends have been locked down. Um, I was, I was in total lockdown for two months, um, so were my friends. And so, you know-

    9. CP

      I, I have several questions. The first is, um, uh-

    10. DS

      Yeah.

    11. CP

      ... how, I mean, how old are you? You look like 90-

    12. DS

      (laughs)

    13. CP

      ... roughly. How old are you exactly?

    14. JC

      (laughs)

    15. CP

      So how does, how do the risk factors apply to you? Second, you have friends-

    16. DS

      (laughs)

    17. CP

      ... uh, to both of these things. (laughs)

    18. JC

      Well, we know there's three on this call, so...

    19. CP

      Oh, Sacksy-poo, I love you. I miss you.

    20. DS

      Yeah, no. I mean, you raise a good point. I mean, uh, my physical age might be 90, but my lungs are only 48 years old.

    21. CP

      (laughs)

    22. DS

      And, uh, so my, uh, my- hopefully my, my lungs are, uh, you know, qualifying in that under 50 category. Um, so, you know, I've been playing golf with friends. Um, you know, I've, I've kind of widened the, the circle of people I'm willing to let into my quarantine, basically, so...

    23. JC

      By a dozen? By 100? Wh- how would you measure?

    24. DS

      Um, by about, um... I've actually let in, uh, not all at o- once but at different times, probably about 20 people.

    25. JC

      Got it. So you feel comfortable, and those people, you do ask them, "Have you quarantined? Have you been wearing masks? Have you been tested?" Or are you just like, uh, uh, you kind of...

    26. DS

      I, I, I generally know that people ha- I mean, now this may change over the next few months, but everyone's been kind of under shelter-in-place. And so, if you were gonna start to socializing or with your friends, this would be the safest time to do it because everybody has been sort of locked down to some degree. And, um, you know, most places have been closed. And so, you know, if your friends haven't gotten it, they're probably pretty safe.

    27. JC

      All right. Swinging over to you, Dave Friedberg. Uh, tell me what you think of Sacks' position. Obviously, Chamath's still in quarantine, you know, venturing off to the store once in a while. Uh, Sacks opening up to, you know, 20 people or whatever in small groups playing golf outdoors, but I'm assuming he's not having like an indoor party for 50, obviously. How would you look at the risk he's taking, and what risk are you taking, Friedberg, personally in your life?

    28. DF

      I'm not too dissimilar. I've got about eight buddies coming over to the pool this afternoon. We're gonna do kind of, uh, like a Father's Day hang session, um, but we're gonna be outside and, uh, um, I've done a lot of hiking without masks and going outside without masks. I'm not really, uh, too concerned about outdoor behavior. There was a, a good analysis done that showed increasing cases where they actually found the origin of, um, where transmission occurred, 97% occurred indoors. So generally speaking, like outdoor activity to me is like pretty reasonable to do. So I'm pretty free with like doing stuff outside, meeting friends outside, hanging out by the pool, and I've had a bunch of people come by and hang out. Um, and then indoor stuff I try and avoid. So if I'm gonna go into a supermarket, I'll wear, uh, or grocery store, I'll wear a mask and I'll be in there as short a time period as I need to be in. I'm certainly not going into restaurants and stuff like that. Um, and so...

    29. JC

      But you would sit outdoors at a restaurant? I would assume if the tables were six feet apart, would you go to a restaurant and sit in a restaurant?

    30. DF

      Yeah. I-

  2. 9:31 – 20:56

    Issues with politicizing matters of public health, deaths decreasing while new cases spike, masks, lockdowns & more

    1. JC

    2. CP

      Look, I think the, I think the basic issue is that something really odd has happened in the United States, and we were talking about this in our group chat, which is that we have managed to find a way to politicize absolutely everything. And, um, you know, some things, for example, like universal basic income or, you know, what is our national policy towards China, those are political issues. But things of public health, when they get sort of distorted and viewed through a political lens or just idiotic, um, you know, we view masks, uh, as a political statement. We view, we would view these Oura Rings as, you know, people, uh, being afraid that the government was going to track them. Um, so we'll find every good, uh, we'll find a lot of excuses in order to blow up any good idea at this point because we can politicize anything and we do it better than any other country in the world.

    3. JC

      Uh, you know, it's an interesting point you make there and I'm gonna, I'm gonna go to you in a second, Sachs. If you pull up my computer for a second, Nick. Um, one thing I cannot understand when I watch the media or I watch this discussion and we, we haven't seen Dr. Fauci in about 60 days. I don't know where they buried him, but he's, he's been put in a bunker somewhere. But the number of deaths in the United States continues to go down massively. Now, I know New York was a big outbreak and that contributes to it, but at the same time, if you look and you compare deaths to new cases, uh, you know, the new cases has increased in some regions and testing has gone way up. So in trying to interpret this data, I don't understand why there's not somebody saying, uh, "Listen, here's the good news. Deaths are going way down, testing is going way up, and here's what we should take from that." Um, Sachs, y- y- I think, uh, you and I might be slightly different sides of the aisle when it comes to, to politics. How do you look at this in terms of leadership at a federal level and then the media and how, you know, to Chamath's point, we politicize this?

    4. DS

      Yeah. Well, I, I agree that, that things get overly politicized and masks is a, is a really good example. Um, it's just a really common sense, easy solution. You know, I wrote a blog that we covered on this pod two and a half months ago saying that I thought masks should be... Public mask wearing should be policy. You know, it should be the law. Little did I know that I was taking a left-wing position. (laughs)

    5. JC

      Yeah. Oops.

    6. DS

      (laughs)

    7. CP

      Did you lose any friends over that?

    8. DS

      Right, right. Yeah.

    9. JC

      Is Peter Thiel still talking to you?

    10. DS

      I mean, I know you guys have me on the show as the, the token right-winger. Um, but actually I just appeared... CNN just asked me to be on the show today to explain, uh, why masks should be policy. Um-... so I, I just thought that was a common sense thing. Um, you know, I'm normally very receptive to libertarian arguments, but, um, you know, like, like we talked about, uh, the, the boundaries of libertarianism are, you know, y- y- you only have the freedom to wave your arms until your fist hits my nose, you know? And something similar is true about when your infectious particles hit my nose. Um, you know, there, there are reasonable boundaries to, to freedom there in the interests of other people's health. And, um, and you know, that, that blog, a lot of public pronouncements about COVID have not aged very well. Um, over the last couple of months, I think that blog actually has aged pretty well by comparison. And, uh, because you just look at all the countries that have been successful at fighting COVID. I mean, Japan has 135 million people. It's an old population, and they've had under a thousand deaths. South Korea, 51 million people, under 300 deaths. You take a western European nation like Czech Republic, they had a huge COVID outbreak spike just like the rest of Europe. They went all in on mask wearing, and they've completely controlled the virus. It's knocked out. And so it's really crazy to me that we just can't get on the same page as a country about something as obvious and easy as mask wearing. Um...

    11. JC

      And it's because we, we... The, the, the, the left wants to get Trump out of office so badly, and they're so triggered by him, and they hate him so much, whether that's valid or not, we'll leave aside, that they want to... And then he wants to say, "No masks." I don't understand his motivation. What do you, what do you think Trump is thinking and who's advising him that he should be anti-mask?

    12. DS

      I think somehow it's... For the right, it's become an act of defiance. Um, and I understand that to some degree because I do think that the lockdowns went on too long. Um, they... I mean, with, I think with 20/20 hindsight, we would say that the lockdowns weren't necessary if we had just gone all in on a mask policy. That's what they did in Japan, right? And so you, you know, the, the problem, the problem with kind of the politicians in charge is that, you know... Well, backing up a second, I think the right policy is to end lockdowns but wear masks. And the problem with the politicians is half of them didn't want to end lockdowns and the other half didn't want to wear masks. And that's kind of the weird way in which it's become this political football.

    13. JC

      So Trump was trying to do this as an act of defiance. What was the left trying to accomplish, do you think? What would be your cynical or charitable approach to what... Their reaction to this in locking down so severely?

    14. DS

      Well, I just, um... I think that... What was the purpose of the lockdowns? I think it was the, the... I think the initial reaction was it was based on what happened in Italy, right? And so in Italy, you kind of had this worst case scenario where the hospital system got overwhelmed, um, you know, tremendous fatality rate from the virus. And then we started to see the same thing happening in New York. And, um, and I think, you know, locking down briefly in New York to get a handle on the situation I think was justified. I don't think, again, with 20/20 hindsight that we needed to do it anywhere else in the country, uh, if we had instead just worn masks.

    15. JC

      Do you think the left, though, perpetrated a perpetual lockdown? This is the most cynical view that I've heard, and I don't think you hear this often. And that's part of why we do this podcast is to sort of explore these, you know, kind of takes that you hear on the inside, but not maybe on CNN. The cynical interpretation was they wanted to keep lockdown to crash the economy, to make Trump look bad, to get him out of the office. Do you think there's anything valid to that argument?

    16. DS

      Um, I, I... You know, I don't know. It... Yeah, I mean, I don't... It's certainly possible. I think that it's possible though that the left just, um, kind of underweights, um, you know, the economic damage of lockdowns. You know, I heard a lot of arguments, uh, about... From, from the left that if you wanted to end lockdowns, then you care more about money than lives.

    17. JC

      You can't put a price on a life, which is literally what we do all the time, like insurance, healthcare, we put a price on life. Freeberg-

    18. DS

      But, but, but I was never in favor of doing nothing. I mean, I, you know... I was tweeting weeks ago that we should end lockdowns but wear masks. And so my argument would be, look at Japan, you do more for lives and the economy by having a mask policy instead of lockdowns.

    19. JC

      Freeberg, what's your take on Sachs' take?

    20. DF

      No, I don't disagree. I mean, I, uh... You know, I'm not, I'm not a great expert on kind of the politics and... You know, I can kind of comment on policy I think, uh, in terms of what I think is reasonable and not. I certainly, you know, thought that the lockdowns, uh, were unreasonable in the extent, but then the problem was they weren't followed, so they were all for waste (laughs) . Uh, you know what happened-

    21. JC

      So the worst of all, the worst of all outcomes?

    22. DF

      Yeah, but there wasn't a huge... Like, until they actually went into effect, there wasn't a huge amount of debate about this. It was just like, "Oh, shit, we better all go into lockdown." What happens, this is almost like the human conscious and unconscious mind. Like, you know, the conscious mind rationalizes what the unconscious already decided to do. So everyone freaked out, everyone had a great deal of fear, we shut everything down, and then the left and the right had their own rationalization after the fact about, you know, what that meant. Was it good? Was it bad? Did we overreact? Did we under-react? Should we have done more? And so I feel like the narrative is told a little bit too late here, where we all kind of, like, have these commentaries about left and right poli- politics after the fact. And, you know, I don't think it's really meaningful, to be honest. It's just almost like, let's fill in the what happened story with our own point of view based on our tribe or whatever we sit in.

    23. JC

      So, Chamath, where, where... How do we get out of this now? Because the deaths are going down-

    24. CP

      No, no, no. We're out, we're out, we're out. The genie is out of the bottle. Look, the reality is, um, there is not a single country government, um, that can tolerate future lockdowns because I think the populations will revolt. Um-... and so we're going to have to deal with, um, cases as they crop up. And we're gonna have to deal with infection rates popping up and, you know, we'll have to deal with this bursty economic landscape. Today Apple just announced they're closing a bunch of stores in a few, in a few states. They'll, I'm sure they'll reopen them in a few weeks. Um, but we're gonna be in this sort of start and stop mode now for the foreseeable future. Um, but they're, it's just not possible to ask people now to go back into any form of quarantine or shelter in place. I just don't think they'll do it.

    25. DS

      Right. And people, people only do lockdowns until there's some activity that they, that they want to engage in, that they think is essential, right? And so you saw with the protests, if you believe that the civil rights protests are essential, you believe that you're, you're, you're out of lockdown and, um, you know, and if you want to go to a Trump rally, you believe that's essential and you're out of lockdown. And so, um, you know, so everybody... And, you know, you have the case in Texas of the woman who wanted to open her haircut salon and, uh, so, you know, you, you were never going to get good compliance with a lockdown plan. In, in addition to the damage and destruction it caused, it was never very effective because people weren't willing to do it. And, um, I think the big public policy mistake here was the politicians squandering their credibility on lockdowns that were never very feasible, instead of just going all in on masks and, um, it would have been a lot cheaper.

    26. CP

      I did... By the way, the other thing is y- we, we need to push mask wearing back into a public health debate and, you know, Newsom yesterday, Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, basically said masks are now mandatory in California. The thing is, you have to add fines if you don't wear them where, you know, people can be cited and fined. And then the other thing, and David you said this earlier, is you have to be criminally culpable at some level if you go out of your way to not wear a mask and infect somebody. Um, and there is a, a bunch of, you know, case law on how this can be true. Um, and so I think that, uh, you know, we need to, we need to solve these things because you need to have good hygiene around, uh, mask wearing and what the consequences are if you choose to not wear one.

    27. JC

      Well, you know what, Shemaad? That's interesting you bring that up. There was a... There have been cases of people purposefully infecting people with the HIV virus and going to jail for it, uh, and being liable for it, so there is, I think, and I'm, I'm not a lawyer-

    28. CP

      What's the difference? What's the difference?

    29. JC

      Yeah, what's the difference?

    30. CP

      Coughing in somebody's face versus having sex with them when you know you're infected,

  3. 20:56 – 25:39

    Viral videos, doxxing bad behavior & cancel culture

    1. CP

      what is the difference?

    2. JC

      Well, that... I don't know if you saw this viral video of the, the Karen, um, which is a-

    3. CP

      So many Karens these days.

    4. JC

      So many Karens. Um, and Aunt Karen just, like, got upset that somebody was calling her out for not wearing a mask in a cafe and she literally coughed on the person. Did you see that video? How is this-

    5. CP

      Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    6. JC

      ... person not in jail? I mean, it's-

    7. CP

      I think that was in New York, right? In Brooklyn or something.

    8. JC

      I think it was New York and the woman didn't know she was being filmed, but oh my Lord.

    9. CP

      I mean, the great thing about the internet right now is, like, if anybody basically transgresses, they are identified in about a nanosecond. And, I mean, I saw that because on Satur- on a Saturday morning, she coughed on this person, uh, who was complaining about her not wearing a mask, and within 15 minutes they had her LinkedIn, they had contacted Weill Medical Center where she worked (laughs) and then Weill put out a press release basically saying "We had fired her, uh, you know, for being a dummy" well before the mask thing. And so the whole thing now just gets so adjudicated and resolved so quickly, uh, it's, it's, it's incredible.

    10. JC

      We've basically moved to Judge Dredd now. It's like the, the social media is the judge, the jury and the cops i- in this entire equation.

    11. CP

      The one that I loved actually that, that really actually frankly, uh, I, I looked forward to was the, the cyclist in Maryland. I mean, you know, you cannot go after kids-

    12. JC

      Touching another person's child.

    13. CP

      And, and women and, like, attacking them for putting up, you know, Black Lives Matter posters. Like, uh, and then to attack these... But then again, uh, it was the sub-community on Reddit and it was amazing, it was the actual, like, Maryland, uh, subreddit. Who knows what's going on in the Maryland subreddit on Reddit? What could-

    14. JC

      Yes.

    15. CP

      ... they be talking about? But they identified this guy and he was fired, he was arrested, and it all happened within, you know, probably 36 hours.

    16. DF

      But you guys, you guys know in that story there was another guy who was identified first and he was a police officer. And then people went after him and he basically had his life ruined within those first 24 hours and he wasn't the guy.

    17. CP

      Whoa. No.

    18. DF

      Yeah.

    19. CP

      Yes.

    20. DF

      And he wasn't the guy. And what happened was-

    21. JC

      The way they got him was the Stravia data, right? Like he had... They found a guy on Stravia who had done that back-

    22. DF

      Strava. Strava is the Sweden...

    23. CP

      Whatever the... Yeah, the Stevia.

    24. DF

      Oh yeah, that's right, that's Stevia.

    25. JC

      The guy was using Stevia, the app that, uh, for the bike people and they monetized that app through subscriptions. Correct? Don't make fun of my dyslexia, Shemaad. You're, you're bullying me on my own podcast.

    26. CP

      You say monetize on CNBC in front of millions of people. It's unbelievable. We've tried to teach you how to pronounce that word for 15 years.

    27. JC

      I know, but I say it on purpose now and I lean into it now. Monetize.

    28. DS

      That sounds slightly pornographic or something.

    29. DF

      He also, he also, he also motivates. I'm going to go home and moti- motivate later.

    30. CP

      Okay, go back to your Stevia story. What is it?

  4. 25:39 – 36:42

    Reforming law enforcement, separating police from the military, changing police incentives

    1. JC

      law enforcement and- and we'll get into the law enforcement discussion and- and race relations here in this country, um, and what we went through.

    2. CP

      We ... Look, we- we have been- we have been, uh, we've been arming our police force mistakenly like our military and we've been doing it for, you know, decades now and it makes no sense. Um, there was this crazy tweet I saw today, maybe we can find, AOC tweeted out, where she- she found this announcement from some like Long Tail Police Department somewhere who basically got, um, a free, uh, armored truck carrier and, you know, they're- they're- they're driving it around town or whatever, pulling it out of the garage. It looks like downtown Baghdad and you're like ... I mean they're in like Fargo, North Dakota or wherever they are. I mean like it's just so ... It makes no sense. I don't think- I don't think any of us thought that we wanted to apportion our tax dollars, um, to build a- a second shadow army. I think we all want an Army and a Navy and an- and Marines and an Air Force. We want, you know, uh, aircraft carriers and F-16s and tanks and machine guns and all that stuff, but we want them with our military. And then we want cops, I think, to be extremely well trained. I mean half the time, you know, cops are ... You know, you ask them to be, uh, mental health counselors. Uh, other times you're asking them to be, you know, CPR givers. Other times you're asking them to be criminal apprehenders. The job is too complicated. They clearly can't do it, they're poorly trained, and then you arm them on top of all of that and you have the shit show that we have today.

    3. JC

      Yeah, it's not like there's an IED waiting somewhere for them to drive over where they need metal plating on the bottom of the vehicle. That's not what they're dealing with every day.

    4. CP

      At a- at a minimum let's like ... Look, I- I'm a huge fan of ending qualified immunity. I think that doesn't make any sense. I think we have to stop arming our police like they're military. Don't train them like the military, train them like a different kind of service. And we may need to go back to first principles to figure out how to actually train them properly to spot abuse, to deal with mental health, um, and just to be, you know, a little bit more patient and understanding and empathetic versus trigger happy.

    5. DF

      Can I ask you- can I ask you a question on that? So, a lot of the, um, actions that police take when it comes to lethal action, um, is defended by the notion that my life was under threat as a- as a cop. And that sources from the fact that we have a Second Amendment in this country where a lot of people are, you know- you know, gun carriers and are allowed to- to have arms. So, our police force has had to respond with the fact that there are a lot of guns in this country with defensive principles and defensive mechanisms to defend themselves against a loss of life due to a gun. Um, and that makes the United States really unique in terms of the- the circumstance versus if you look at the United Kingdom where they don't have a Second Amendment right to- to- to bear arms. The police aren't armed and the police behavior is significantly different. You can look at this in any country where there isn't a right to bear arms. Do we not have a fundamental problem in this country that stems from the fact that the police feel or can justify that they're always under threat of loss of life due to arms being out in the- in the population?

    6. CP

      Yeah, the contra- I- I think it's a fabulous question. The contra-example I would say is if you look at Switzerland where the per capita gun ownership is really high, Canada where per capita gun ownership is really high, what I would tell you is there's a different kind of psychological training that police people go through before they're put on the streets, and that is fundamentally different here. The job as is defined to them here is different than it is in Canada or Switzerland where, you know, gun ownership levels are quite robust. And I think it all comes down to incentives, and the reality is is that there is a, to your point David, um, this amplification of this idea that everybody is armed, um, which I think is fundamentally mostly not true in the day-to-day course of like living one's life. Um, but I think police people tend to be very amplified around that threat, and as a result the unions have basically written contracts that protect their use of force. Um, the law is written in a way that protects their use of force. And so all of it comes from, to your point, a defensive posture of fear. Um, but if you actually tried to train these people differently, um, I think you'd have a different outcome because what I can tell you is the police in Canada do behave differently. They don't reach for their gun every second.

    7. JC

      I- it's an interest- I think there's a very interesting example and I- I know we don't want to like just take one anecdotal incident and then, you know, make a- a- a big, um, sweeping generalization with it, but if you look at the, uh, gentleman in Atlanta who was shot in the back twice, Rayshard Brooks, Rayshard Brooks-

    8. CP

      Rayshard Brooks.

    9. JC

      ... Rayshard Brooks. Um, this example to me is so illustrative of the problem. They spent 40 minutes talking with this individual who was absolutely not a threat. They had frisked him. They knew he was not armed.... he was intoxicated, he's in a drive-through. Of all the ways you could have dealt with the situation, uh, and I come from a family of police officers and, uh, I can tell you a lot of stories about cops letting people go, obviously white people with warnings. In this situation, letting him sleep it off, taking his keys, letting him run away. You know who it is. You have his driver's license, you have his car, you have his keys, let him run away. Under what circumstances would you feel justified shooting a person when there were so many other options? And I, it comes exactly, I believe, Chamath, from two things you pointed out. One, they're in a very defensive position, and two, the training. They're trained to use lethal force and if you're in a situation where you feel threatened, you just shoot. That's it. And if you shoot, you shoot to the center of the body to kill the person. And in their training, they're not trained to think, "How do I, uh, disarm the situation, diffuse the situation, and what are the other options?" This person is obviously not a threat and you knew the taser was fired twice. I'm not saying the person should have resisted arrest, I'm not saying the person shouldn't have aimed the, the taser at the person, but they should be trained to protect life and diffuse situations at all costs.

    10. CP

      Jason, like think about the incentives. They should have been trained maybe to just walk into the Wendy's, buy this guy a coffee, um, and then drive him to the motel that he said that he was staying at.

    11. JC

      Yes. Yes.

    12. CP

      Or they should, or they should have been trained to just write a ticket and say, "Listen, here's a, you know, here's a citation for being drunk 'cause you did technically kind of drive and now I'm gonna leave it alone." They could have done many things that they chose not to do because the incentive was to, um, you know, project power in that situation versus project any kind of empathy and compassion.

    13. JC

      Right. And, and the selection of people who go into the police department, and I come from a family of police officers and firefighters, brother, uncle, cousin, grandfather, up and down the line, Irish cops and firefighters, big tradition in my family. And, uh, I can tell you that there is a contingent of people who go into the police who are power tripping or maybe didn't get wherever else they wanted to be in life, and the job of seeing people a- and dealing with the bad stuff that you pointed out, you know, people in domestic situ- domestic violence situations, people who are mentally ill, homeless, uh, addict- addiction problems, all of that then trains these peoples to see the worst in humanity and then they just look at their job as just this dystopian, horrible experience and, uh, they are in that defensive posture. Whereas we need to train people, and, and I, I made this tweet where we should have a new class of police officer that is more like a Jedi knight. You know, they get paid twice as much. They have master's degree in social work or psychology, and when that call comes in for an emotionally disturbed person, uh, a person who's intoxicated or on drugs, a domestic violence situation, you don't wanna send the average beat cop to that. You wanna send the Jedi.

    14. CP

      No, but Jason make it even easier. Like when, when you go and get a 911 call and it's, you know, there could be, it's, it's, it's somebody who's in sort of like mental distress or you're gonna do a mental health check, um, why don't you send a really well-trained social worker?

    15. JC

      Absolutely. Um, and the reason is-

    16. CP

      W- why don't we have a whole, you know, a whole force of social workers that we pay $100,000 a year?

    17. JC

      Absolutely. And, and, and th- and this, that's what these police officers are making, and there is an argument to not have them armed. Um, there's an argument for them to be armed, but maybe they're so enlightened and trained so well. I think the training in the United States is in the low hundreds of hours. In other countries, it's thousands of hours. I mean, uh, if a person has a gun, I think police should not get their gun until they've completed maybe two or 3,000 hours on the job. In other words, they get to their second or third year. So the first year when you're a probie, why even have a gun? Why not just have them doing things without a gun? And then when you get that gun, maybe you need to have the equivalent of a master's degree. You know, maybe you need to have a, a level of training and we need to go to first principles like you're saying, Chamath, and rethink this whole thing. In any startup or any problem solving, you would look at the, show me the thousand calls. How did they break down? What were the outcomes? And if you look at the outcomes of dealing with mentally ill people or people who are addiction or domestic disputes, the, the outcomes are things that police are not trained for. That's gotta be a very high percentage of these situations, let alone the no-knock warrant, which makes absolutely no sense. Um-

    18. CP

      Yeah. I mean, I think, I think, uh, there's, there's just a lot of, um, look, there's a lot of change coming. Um, I think that there's a lot of legislation afoot at every sort of level of government. Um, and I think the good news is that it's going to be hard, um, for people to sit on their hands on this. I don't think it's gonna be universally across the country. Um, but I do think that, you know, people will then again, um, self-select and wanna live in places where, you know, sort of like the laws match their ideals and, uh, this is gonna be an area of tremendous reform and change. Um, you know, i- i- what's interesting about all of this is like if you actually go back to the Republican ideology, it's interesting to me why Republicans aren't the first ones to try to embrace rewriting, you know, the union contracts and actually decreasing unionized power. Um, because that sort of like has generally been a tent hole theme of Republican ideology. Um, but then as it gets applied to cops, I think they kind of just abdicate responsibility. So there's a lot of reasons where you could have bipartisan agreement on a bunch of these things. But again, I think we're, we're, we kind of like get caught up and we refuse to see the forest from the trees and wanna fix these things. But, um, I suspect that a lot of these changes will happen just because they're so bloody obvious and depending on your ideology, you can frame the same reason for completely different motives and get to the same answer.

    19. JC

      Yeah. Nobody, nobody wants this. Uh, Sax,

  5. 36:42 – 41:49

    Are public unions too powerful? How a lack of leadership has led us here

    1. JC

      what do you think about the, the union issue, um, as our token right-winger?

    2. DS

      ... I think, yeah, I think, I think the police unions have too much power. Um, all the public employee unions do. Um, I think, you know, just like the teachers' unions have thwarted school choice and education reform, I think we're seeing the police unions thwart a lot of sensible reforms around the use of force. Um, you know, uh, our, our friend Bill Gurley's been tweeting a lot of great research, um, that, uh, around police departments that are unionized, there's a lot more, uh, complaints against them. There's a lot more examples of, uh, the use of force and, uh, unwarranted use of force. And so clearly there's a connection here between, um, police unions and the thwarting of common sense reforms. And I saw someone, someone tweeted this idea that, you know, the reason why no one's taking on the police unions is because Republicans see the word "police" and Democrats see the word "union," and they're both fans of those things.

    3. CP

      (laughs)

    4. DS

      And so who's gonna take 'em on?

    5. JC

      (laughs) Yeah. I mean, and, uh, teachers' unions is the same thing. And, and the political system, uh, the political power of the unions is so entrenched that in order to get in office for, in most cases, you're gonna need to have the support of those unions. And if you don't, they're going to tell people explicitly not to vote for you.

    6. DS

      Yeah, I mean, well, well, look, I mean, you look at the cities that have had the biggest problems here. Um, I mean, starting with Minneapolis, and these are Democrat-controlled cities. Um, these are not, you know, Republican-controlled cities. And the politicians are very much, you know, uh, in cahoots with the, the big union, uh, the unions there, including the police and the teachers' unions and all that. And so, you know, both parties need to, to, to be open to reform.

    7. CP

      To your point, David, there's a, there's a story that came out last, or last couple of days about, um, the DA in Atlanta who pressed charges against the two officers, but the narrative was about how the DA is being investigated for getting 140K in kickbacks from a nonprofit tied to something. And then he was claiming that his main opponent, uh, who's run- who, 'cause, 'cause these, you know, district attorneys are politically-elected officials, right? Um, where she had basically done a side deal with the police to not, uh, to not, uh, go after, you know, use of force in return for their endorsement. And, you know, what a, what a horribly messy, like, complicated, gross situation, irrespective of whoever turns out to be right there. So to your point, they've become so entrenched and it's just so low-level, um, that then, you know, what should be obvious justice basically just gets thrown away for what's expedient and convenient.

    8. DS

      Yeah. Well, you know, this is another example where, like, like with the mask, I felt like there were, uh, you know, I wasn't violating conservative principles. I thought there really was a conservative principle. I think with, you know, with, with this example of the overuse of force by police, uh, you go back to what Lord Acton said, which is power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. If there's no one standing up to the police unions politically, uh, they have absolute power, and that's gonna lead to corruption. Um, so I do think, like, Republicans should be looking into this. Now, I think part of the reason why Republicans want to defend the police is because we've also had these examples of looting and rioting and lawlessness, um, you know, a- after the Civil Rights protests, and I think that, again, we're, we're kind of dividing up into, into sides. And, uh, there's too much justification of bad behavior on both sides because of what the other side is doing, you know? And, um, I heard people on the left justifying the, the looting and rioting on the grounds that, you know, it was a legitimate expression of, um, you know, of opposition. It was a legitimate protest, it was a legitimate expression of opposition to, to the police violence. Um, and I, I think that, that is wrong, and I think it's wrong for people on the right to defend this police, this excessive use of force by police on the grounds that somehow it's justified because we need to control the lawlessness and the rioting. And, um, you know, I think both are wrong.

    9. JC

      And, uh, and we, we lack a federal leadership, uh, to not make this overly political, but when Trump then tear gases with the military protesters to go do a photo opportunity, you know, it's sending the message that he w- and he wants to be the law and order president. Now you're just charging things up. Instead of just going on TV and just saying something to bring people back to the concept that we're all Americans, we're all in this together, and we rise and fall together, it's such an easy statement. Listen, the protesters have valid concerns. We need to work on this issue. And yes, if you see people doing any vandalism, you h- we have to stop them. Please make sure that doesn't happen, because it, um, it works against the very valid criticism and protests that are going on that need to go on. A- and the fact that the president can't say that is crazy.

  6. 41:49 – 59:24

    Facebook vs. Twitter on free speech, Zuckerberg's relationship with Peter Thiel, valuing comfort over freedom of expression

    1. JC

    2. CP

      Well, what do you guys think about, um, what he has been saying and how Twitter and Facebook have basically taken different sides of it?

    3. JC

      Freeberg, go ahead.

    4. DF

      What Trump's been saying?

    5. JC

      Yeah, should, should Twitter be censoring him/putting warnings on his posts when he's saying crazy stuff?

    6. DF

      I don't think so. Uh, yeah, look, I mean (laughs) , it's such a slippery slope and there's too much room for interpretation. I'm just saying the obvious. But, uh, you know, if you're a platform, you're a platform. You know, you let the things get built on top of you. Sure, you can have some, some rules a- around what can be, uh, built, but as soon as you start, um, you know, saying what is true and what is not true and you become the arbiter of truth, you're no longer a, um, an agnostic platform. And, uh, I think, uh, that, you know, that, that is a big dangerous risk to take, um, because as you guys know, something may be... And I think we saw this with the, uh, what's that, uh, Twitter account, Zero Hedge was that the name of it?

    7. DS

      Zero Hedge.

    8. DF

      They got banned.

    9. DS

      Zero Hedge.

    10. DF

      And then they came back because it turns out what they said wasn't necessarily as untrue as Twitter at first thought that they were saying was untrue. So, you know, it was a great example of how, you know, a point of interpretation, uh...... can very quickly kind of, um, uh, reverse course and you can look, um, extremely biased in, in making that decision at that time. So-

    11. JC

      Well, and the, and YouTube took a- and I think Susan Wojcicki took the, when Wojcicki took the position at YouTube that w- we're going to allow people to talk about coronavirus if what they're saying is in sync with (laughs) the World Health Organization.

    12. DF

      Yeah. And, and by the way, the World Health Organization, I've had an issue with since well before COVID, uh, just from another life. They, uh, uh, I, I won't get into it, but they've said some stuff publicly that, that was just flat out fucking wrong scientifically and, and invalid and it was politicized and we, we kinda got to the root of the political driver behind it. So I've long held kind of disbelief in the World Health Organization as a trusted source of, uh, of scientific fact.

    13. JC

      And to Sacks' previous point, you want to be able to check power and if the World Health Organization is this incredibly powerful organization who got it wrong with masks and didn't even-

    14. DF

      Yeah.

    15. JC

      ... you know, like, David Sacks is getting it right, some venture capitalist in the Bay Area gets it right about masks, and the World Health Organization gets it wrong?

    16. DF

      Well, he's in Mexico, but yeah.

    17. DS

      (laughs)

    18. JC

      (laughs)

    19. DF

      I mean-

    20. DS

      I'm thinking about undisclosed location.

    21. JC

      Into undisclosed locations, back to Mexico. (laughs)

    22. DF

      In Mexico. (laughs)

    23. JC

      But, okay, Sacks, should they, should they, uh, be putting labels and warnings on politicians when they say things that are consensus wrong?

    24. DS

      Yeah, I mean, call me old-fashioned but I'm very much in favor of free speech and, um, I'm against censorship and, um, you know, fact-checking your politicians you don't like is, is a, is basically bias. It's soft censorship. Um, I mean, they're being very selective in who they decide to fact check and, you know, there's no good way to do it, right? I mean, there is no truth API that they can just plug in to, to fact check people. Um, the, the way that you deal with, with bad speech is more speech. I think it's a line from Justice Brandeis. Um, that is the way historically that we have, in this country, that we've dealt with speech by people we don't like, which is you have more speech. And, um, and I, I don't think censorship or warnings is, is, is the right way to go.

    25. JC

      Chamath, what do you think, having worked at Facebook?

    26. CP

      Look, I think it exposes a couple of things. One is that the Twitter product is, is still relatively brittle. I mean, like, at least Facebook has a whole suite of emoticons to say something is a crock of shit, um, you know, and it makes you feel bad or, you know, makes you feel angry or thumbs down or whatever. Um, and so Twitter's reactionary feedback mechanism to its algorithms is very brittle. And so if you were gonna try to algorithmically tune down the distribution of, you know, a Trump tweet, um, you know, you could see where you could balance thumbs up or hearts in this case with other ways of signaling that this is either wrong or hate-filled or, you know, instigating. And, and I think, like, a little bit more self-policing is probably the only scalable solution. All of that said, here's what I will say. I think basically that Facebook is, is becoming middle America and Twitter is becoming sort of, uh, the coasts. And, you know, Facebook is basically a product of middle America plus kind of, like, countries outside the United States and f- you know, Twitter is about, you know, rich coastal kind of people. And you can see that the, the way that the content ebbs and flows and, you know, the kind of content problems, like, just for as an example, you know, what is, what is Twitter's latest content problem? It was that Donald Trump, um, tweeted a video from CNN that was doctored, you know, and it, and it only showed a clip of a, you know, a Black toddler running away from a white toddler and the caption was, you know, "The Chiron said something about racism. It turned out to not be wrong," blah, blah, blah. What does Facebook's issue two days ago? It was that, you know, the Boogaloo movement, which is, you know, a bunch of people who believe in a militia and an impending civil war principally use Facebook and Facebook groups to organize and they found out that they were distributing and, you know, driving, you know, viewers and usage in content. Um, so it just kind of tells you, like... An- and if you break down the issues and, you know, there's a, there's a couple of people who tweet out, uh, the most popular, uh, tweets on Twitter versus the most popular content on Facebook, what you see is a left and right distribution. Um, and so I think that the audiences are, are segregating themselves into, uh, into, into using products that basically feed them what they want to hear.

    27. JC

      Well, ch- let me ask you a question about the leadership. We, y- you worked directly with Zuckerberg for many years, um, and we all know Jack from Twitter, uh, from various projects. What is Zuckerberg's politics? Is he a secret Trump supporter? Is, does Peter Thiel, who's on the board, and you're good friends with Peter Thiel and worked with Peter, Peter Thiel, Sacks. I'm curious what you think goes on inside the brain of Mark Zuckerberg in terms of making these decisions. Is he scared that Facebook has become dependent on the right and is that, Chamath, that it is a right thing and is he right or left? What is his politics?

    28. CP

      I don't think that's the right framing. I think that, uh, if you're running a big network like this, you have to remember, the, you, you know, you're one of the five or six most valuable companies in the world. You yourself have, you know, 50, 60, $70 billion. Basically the world is your oyster. And what you've seen over the last five or six years is that there is an increasing regulatory headwind, um, and if you basically play the game theory out, um, you know, these companies are gonna get regulated and they're gonna get over-taxed and they're gonna get kind of slowed down at a minimum and broken up at the maximum. And so if you're running one of these companies, I think the only thing you can do is hold on. And so if you're gonna hold on, there's no point in making any of these changes because it minimizes the amount of cash you can make and the amount of, you know, uh, support you'll have. So you might as well pick a side ef- effectively-... um, by doing nothing and waiting. Um, and I, and I, and I think that's, that's largely what all these guys have decided to do. They've essentially said, "We're not gonna, sort of take a side here."

    29. JC

      Well, no. Twitter has taken a side.

    30. DS

      Twitter has.

  7. 59:24 – 1:03:14

    John Bolton's book controversy

    1. CP

      By the way, can we just talk about this Bolton book?

    2. JC

      Okay.

    3. CP

      I mean, what the fuck?

    4. JC

      I mean, he did ask Xi Jinping to help him win the election, and he bartered, "Buy soybeans to help me win the election." I mean, this is insane.

    5. DS

      I think, I think we need to, we need to... First of all, you always gotta look at the source here. Um, so I don't know how somebody-

    6. JC

      A Fox commentator who's as far right as you could go-

    7. DS

      Well-

    8. JC

      ... who was picked by Trump himself.

    9. DS

      Well, he was a very weird choice for Trump because one of the main reasons why Trump won the Republican nomination is he promised no more Bushes, meaning an end to these crazy-

    10. JC

      Crazy neocon...

    11. DS

      ... neocon wars of intervention. And this guy Bolton, like-

    12. CP

      He's right out of that playbook. Central Casting.

    13. DS

      Yeah. Well, he, yeah, he's the, he's the, like, hawk of hawks. There's not a war he doesn't want to get us into. He wanted to get us into a war with Iran. It never made any sense for Trump to hire him in the first place.

    14. JC

      But do you know why he hired him as stated in the book?

    15. DS

      I've heard, I've heard the explanation that he, like, I think he said something like when, when he sends Bolton into a room, he likes, he like, he thinks it strengthens his negotiating position because the other side thinks that they're about to, the US is about to invade or something when Bolton comes into the room.

    16. JC

      Or that, and it's also Trump was like, "I love hearing you talk. It's just like Fox News." Like, that's the quote, is, so he literally picks people based... I mean, and he picked, uh, Ludlow, right? For his, you know, he picks them based on being TV personalities.

    17. DS

      I just think this Bolton guy is, um-... like, you know, it's this crazy war hawk who also is just kind of like a weasel. And I don't know how he creates a 500 something page book out of spending 17 months in the White House. I guess he's just writing down every, uh-

    18. JC

      I'm surprised it's not 5,000 words.

    19. DS

      (laughs)

    20. JC

      That should be a, that should be, like, Tolkien's Lord of the Ring trilogy. (laughs)

    21. DF

      (laughs)

    22. CP

      I'm gonna put this other... If he can produce the note that Pompeo gave him that said, "Trump is so full of shit. That thing at auction, I'm telling you now." (laughs)

    23. JC

      What, what are you each bid for it? What are we at bid?

    24. CP

      At least $500,000. At least $500,000. If that note actually exists and he has it-

    25. JC

      Ugh.

    26. CP

      ... it's not, I mean, it's, it's... But I, I just think, to, to me, first of all, it's a little ludicrous that this guy, he is a bit of a weasel because, like, where were you during the impeachment? A, he made an economic calculation that his book was more important than the future of the country. So first of all-

    27. JC

      He's a douche.

    28. DF

      Douchesh, douchesh.

    29. CP

      ... you know, kind of go fuck, go fuck yourself to that.

    30. DF

      Yeah.

  8. 1:03:14 – 1:07:38

    Movements in the COVID vaccine space

    1. CP

      tell me about... I just want to switch topics. Tell me about vaccines because it seems to me that there's, like, a growing core to people, and I'm not gonna put Moderna in this camp, but, like, maybe they did, that are, were very opportunistically out there, generating a ton of PR. Um, but what... If you had to pick a time and a timeframe, um, and then a manufacturing timeframe, can you just tell me what your-

    2. JC

      Give us the over under so we can mit- we can bet a line on it.

    3. DF

      So there's gonna... I think there's gonna be a staged release of vaccines that'll probably, um, believe it or not, start in Q4 of this year. Um, and there's been production ramp up going on in parallel to testing. So, you know, to get these vaccines produced, whether you're talking about the mRNA vaccine or you're talking about a, the, the viral vaccine like they did in China, which they actually do have in production, um, there's a bunch of, uh, different, uh, challenges with scaling up and ramping production. And then, you know, what's called downstream processing and filtering and then packaging and all that stuff. Anyway, it's a, it's a big fucking exercise. So what's gone on is there's been a parallel effort to actually scale up production of these things before we've actually completed the testing of them to make sure that they're safe and efficacious. And as a result... And some of this came out of that first or second stimulus bill. Some of it came from private funding and then o- other governments are just straight up paying for it. Um, and so there are a number of facilities that are actually ramping production right now. If they don't wa- if the vaccines ultimately don't pass muster, just gonna be a write off of a couple billion dollars. Um, and so theoretically, we could have doses that are available for distribution to healthcare workers and frontline people in Q4 of this year is, is what I would kind of set the over under at and then, you know-

    4. CP

      But what do you think... Do you think these vaccines are like flu vaccines, which is, like, 50, 60% effective at best?

    5. DF

      Um, yeah. I, I don't really know the answer to that. I, I would say that these things are probably pretty effective. I would say the flu vaccine is just a high rate of mutation and also a low rate of utilization and a high rate of infection. So we're gonna have a lower rate of infection, probably a more moderate rate of mutation as a result, um, and so we sh- we should be more in control if we get something that works with the current strains. And the way that this, um, uh, this, uh, SARS-CoV-2, the, the, most of the vaccines are built arou- there's seven, I think, major targets, um, around the spike protein and, uh, in different epitopes across the spike protein. And so, um, you know, your, if you see a great degree of mutation across that protein, it's likely gonna be less infected, infective, and less effective as a, as a va- as a virus and so it'll go away. And so I think that we've got a really good shot here at, uh, at getting these people in-

    6. CP

      What, what are the odds that somebody politicizes the vaccine and America doesn't get it?

    7. DF

      America doesn't get it? Like, we don't hate-

    8. JC

      Oh, politicize, 100%. Yeah.

    9. DF

      Yeah, I mean, look, we politicized fucking measles. 30% of people's kids now aren't getting vaccinated for measles, uh, which is crazy. And now there's measles outbreaks happening in the US, which is just, you know, mind boggling. So it-

    10. JC

      I think that's just happening in Marin where you are. (laughs)

    11. DF

      (laughs) Yeah, it's a, uh, easy, that's a, that's an inevitability-

    12. JC

      I think that's just with the place with the highest percentage of graduate degrees in the country. (laughs)

    13. DF

      Yeah. No, but I mean, it's an ev- it's inevitability that it gets politicized.

    14. CP

      But David, like, how does, how does the distribution of these vaccines work? Meaning, like, let's just, let's just say that it's, like, Sanofi, for example, 'cause I saw that the French government made a large investment and the Germans did as well to essentially, like, uh, onshore a bunch of their, you know, companies who, who had promising vaccine candidates. Um, and so if you assume that there's a distribution of these vaccines, let's just say the most efficacious ones in China, are they just gonna dole this out to whoever's willing to buy it or they're gonna decide on a political basis how to basically give these? And then when they come to the United States, how do we know that it comes to Texas before it comes to Wyoming versus California versus New York?

    15. DF

      So I think the ones that are getting federal support, which all of them are pretty much at this point, are, um, you know, gonna be federally mandated in terms of distribution and there's probably some commercial agreement that none of us have seen in terms of, like, what that looks like. Um but I think there-

    16. JC

      So Trump will sign up to the swing states where he's behind? Is what you're saying?

    17. DF

      Well, I think there's, I think it'll probably be delegated down to Health and Human Services and probably go to-

    18. JC

      What are the chances that there's a Trump logo on the side of the syringe? (laughs)

    19. DF

      Here's your Trump, here's your Trump vaccine, enjoy.

    20. JC

      Here's your Trump vaccine to save your life. Okay.

    21. DF

      Yeah.

    22. JC

      That's a good point for us to, to kind of wrap around the horn.

  9. 1:07:38 – 1:14:24

    Trump vs. Biden: Who has the upper hand?

    1. JC

      Um, Chamath, and I think a lot of people were convinced that Trump was going to sail into, uh, office. Now, uh, everything is showing, you know Fox News polls, CNBC polls, SurveyMonkey polls, that Trump is very far behind especially in the swing states. What are the chances Trump wins the election, sacks?

    2. DS

      I think he's, um, well I think COVID's really hurt him, uh, because the sort of feather in his cap, the thing he really had going for him was the economy. That's been hurt but it's coming back. Um, you know, the situation could look very different six months from now. Right now, it looks pretty bleak because I do think that his reaction to the, the crisis was seen as very inflammatory. Um, but I think six months from now could be a very different story.

    3. JC

      Five months.

    4. DS

      Five months, so yeah.

    5. JC

      So you don't think he's gonna win right now, but he could turn it around.

    6. DS

      The election were today ... If the election were today, he would lose, um, but, you know, the economy, we're seeing a V-shaped recovery, which I think is surprising all of us, and, uh, if that holds up and we get past the civil unrest that we've had, um, and, you know, um, he stops being so inflammatory on those issues, I think that, um, you know, the situation could look very different in five months, You gotta remember the other thing which is Biden at some point, is gonna have to enter to some presidential debates. And, um, you know, this-

    7. JC

      It's unknown if he's gonna be there is what you're saying, cognitively.

    8. DS

      Yeah, I mean that's the-

    9. JC

      It's unpopular to talk about but you actually think there's a cognitive issue, yes or no?

    10. DS

      Probably, yeah.

    11. JC

      Probably, yeah. It's uncomfortable to say for some reason-

    12. DS

      Yeah.

    13. JC

      ... but it's-

    14. DS

      I mean at a minimum-

    15. JC

      ... undeniable.

    16. DS

      Look, I, there's a problem with the way he speaks. I don't know if there's a w- which is indicative of a problem with the way he thinks. But, um, you know, like when, if they're on stage for two hours in a debate, I think we're gonna find out really quick. Um, and I, and I think those debates are pretty unavoidable. I don't think Biden's gonna be able to figure out a way to get out of it. Um, so, you know, I think a lot of people think that he can just be propped up by his staff and they can to some extent, but I think at some point, we're, you know, we're gonna have to take a look at Joe Biden.

    17. JC

      Chamath, Trump wins, Trump loses? Where are you at right now?

    18. CP

      Right now, I think it's sort of 75-25 he loses.

    19. JC

      Okay.

    20. CP

      I think that's gonna get closer to 55-45 as the date comes close. Um, I think it actually comes down to two issues. Number one, is who does Biden pick as a running mate, um, and can he lock up the, the swing states with that running mate? And number two, which I think, uh, is probably gonna play an enormous role if, if the community organizing that saw the Black Lives Matter movement get to this next level, is, uh, uh, av- avoiding and preventing voter suppression. Um, you know, LeBron, I think is about to start an enormous campaign with a lot of very well-heeled, well-known celebrities to get out the vote. But if there's a concerted effort to prevent voter suppression and get young people and people of color to the polls, uh, it's a Biden landslide.

    21. JC

      Biden. Now we've gone from a Trump landslide just six months ago in all of our minds, to a Biden landslide. Freeburg, where are you at?

    22. DF

      I still think Trump's gonna win. I'd say 70% chance Trump wins, and I'll tell you why. I think there's still, there's not gonna be structural improvement between now and November for the majority of people that voted for Trump in the last election. There are gonna be a large number of people in blue-collar and rural areas that remain challenged with their life and feel like they're missing out and they're missing... And, and, and this may even be true in inner city, um, districts, but, but the big kind of flip vote in the rural and blue-collar areas, um, is gonna say, "I still need change, I need things fixed." And Trump is the agent of change. Biden, he has always been the agent of change, and I'll tell you the other thing he's, he's also a master of, is laying blame. And so Trump is incredible at pointing a finger at some third party and saying, "That's the enemy. I'm the guy who's gonna go defeat him for you." And I think that's what won him the election last time and I think it could win him the election again this time. No matter what shit happens between now and November, he will find a way to make the story about how some third party or some process or some deep state is still responsible for that outcome that's keeping you down, Mr. Blue Collar Factory Worker, um, and I will be the person to vanquish that problem. Biden is the old state, he's the old guard. He's the guy from before, and we haven't changed anything in the last four years where people feel happy and secure about their lives. I think to Sax's point, if the economy was even stronger, it may hurt Trump's chances. Sure, it's a lot of folks might say, "Great, Trump's responsible, let's give him a thumbs up." But the more people are feeling pain, the more they're looking for an agent of change, and I think it's Trump against Biden is still gonna be that agent of change.

    23. JC

      That makes me the deciding, uh, either tie or swing vote, I believe Biden wins, uh, I believe Trump is absolutely lost his ability, uh, to win this because he made two critical errors, uh, to Sax's very astute point. He, he just complete blunder on wearing masks and leadership during COVID, and complete blunder in terms of dealing with the social unrest, which he could have acted as an- a reconciliation agent. Um, and he's his own worst enemy and couldn't do those two very simple things. I think Biden wins big if he takes the following strategy, which I will call The Avenger Strategy, which is, it's not just about him, he gets an incredible running mate...... to Chamath's point, but not only that, he pre-announces his cabinet Avenger style, and they start hosting, a la, uh, Cuomo in New York, daily briefings where they talk about what the country needs to do with a brain trust in a round table with five or six people pre-selected. So you're not voting for Biden who might have cognitive issues. And Sachs is correct, he could fumble under Trump's greatest strength, which is demolishing people in debates, which we ourselves all watched. We watched Hillary get absolutely beat up in those debates. And, and that was our... I remember those nights when we were watching them at your house, Chamath, and we... our eyes opened right up like, "Holy cow, Hillary's in trouble here." H- he's just really good at this type of maniac boxing that he does, uh, with little Mark Rubio and everybody else he annihilated. But if he picks the right VP candidate... And I wanna know as we close here,

  10. 1:14:24 – 1:15:10

    Who should Biden pick as VP?

    1. JC

      who is the VP candidate that you think he should pick? Amy Klobuchar, uh, just bowed out and said, "Uh, a woman is not enough, you need to have a Black woman." So Chamath, who is the ideal running mate? Sachs, who scares you the most? Uh, since, uh, you know, the GOP is gonna lose this time around, who's the scariest for you? Uh, and Freeburg, who do you think he should pick? Give it some thought or do you not have a, a consensus choice?

    2. CP

      I'll, I'll, I'll leave my s- statement to the end.

    3. JC

      Okay. Sachs-y poo.

    4. DS

      Uh, you know-

    5. JC

      Don't sandbag this and pick somebody you want him to pick 'cause it helps him lose.

    6. DS

      Well, I, I, I don't know the, the, the backbencher Democrat politicians well enough to say exactly. I don't have a pick. I would just say I would really like for him to pick a great crisis manager.

Episode duration: 1:18:49

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