E51: Supply Chain Shortages, Inflation, DeSantis, Ted Sarandos Netflix Memo, Cancel Culture, Fan Q&A

1. 0:00 – 1:19

   Cold Open

   1. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:00

      Yesterday the game went off the chain. It was, it's- we started off at 500 and 1,000 and then we were like, "Ah, these $500 chips are so annoying." Then we started to play 1,000, 1,000. Then it was 1,000, 2,000. Then it was 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, then 1,200, 4,800, then 1,200, 4,800, 16,000-

   2. DFDavid Friedberg0:16

      What?

   3. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:16

      ... 1,200, 4,800, 16,000, 32,000 coming around.

   4. DSDavid Sacks0:21

      (laughs)

   5. JCJason Calacanis0:22

      Oh my god, how much did (beep) lose?

   6. DFDavid Friedberg0:24

      What was the big winner and big loser? How much? How much?

   7. DSDavid Sacks0:26

      I'm not gonna say. It was-

   8. JCJason Calacanis0:27

      Just tell us how much. (beep) 800. I put (beep) at minus 800, (beep) minus 700-

   9. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:34

      Man, don't, don't say these fucking names, bro. Come on.

   10. DFDavid Friedberg0:36

       (laughs) How'd you do, Chamath?

   11. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:38

       I did okay.

   12. JCJason Calacanis0:39

       Oh! Uh-oh.

   13. DFDavid Friedberg0:40

       Hey.

   14. JCJason Calacanis0:40

       He did okay, uh-oh.

   15. DFDavid Friedberg0:42

       Hey, hey.

   16. DSDavid Sacks0:42

       You can tell that Chamath lost because when you ask him, "How'd you do?" And it's like just, he goes from this super effusive talking about the game to just like one word, "Fine."

   17. DFDavid Friedberg0:52

       (laughs)

   18. JCJason Calacanis0:52

       Okay.

   19. DSDavid Sacks0:52

       "Fine." Okay.

   20. JCJason Calacanis0:53

       Yeah. How was your night? Good.

   21. DFDavid Friedberg0:55

       He's like, "Look, I shit $42 million for breakfast. It was fine."

   22. JCJason Calacanis0:58

       (laughs) Ah, here we go. Three, two-

   23. NANarrator1:01

       What you call all in. Don't let your winners ride. Rain man David Sachs. What you call all in. And I said we open source it to the fans. And they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys. Queen of Quinoa. What you call all in.

   24. JCJason Calacanis1:18

       Hey, everybody.

2. 1:19 – 4:24

   Bestie banter & poker recap

   1. JCJason Calacanis1:19

      Welcome to another episode of the All In podcast. 50 episodes down and, uh, yeah, we'll definitely get three or four (laughs) more in before the band breaks up. Uh, with us today, again, from an undisclosed location, David Sachs, the rain man himself, Chamath Palihapitiya, the dictator, and the queen of quinoa, David Friedberg. How's everybody doing? How's everybody feeling? How's everybody's week going?

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:46

      Really great. Yours?

   3. JCJason Calacanis1:49

      Just, just great. Awesome.

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:51

      I, uh, I, I feel really good. I, um, I feel super grateful.

   5. JCJason Calacanis1:56

      Aw. Really?

   6. DFDavid Friedberg1:58

      The markets are up, so.

   7. JCJason Calacanis1:59

      Yeah, the stock market's up today. (laughs)

   8. CPChamath Palihapitiya2:02

      I, it feels great. Yeah. I mean-

   9. DFDavid Friedberg2:04

      (laughs)

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya2:04

       ... it's been a good week. It's been a good week.

   11. DFDavid Friedberg2:06

       (laughs)

   12. JCJason Calacanis2:06

       I feel so much equanimity. (laughs) Market's up 4%. (laughs) Uh, Friedberg, how are you doing?

   13. DFDavid Friedberg2:14

       My wife went to the, um, hospital three times this week, all three times thinking she was in labor.

   14. JCJason Calacanis2:18

       Hey, bro-

   15. DFDavid Friedberg2:19

       Um-

   16. JCJason Calacanis2:20

       Are you, how, how di- I mean, we're, we're two centimeters dilated. We're still waiting here. I mean, not that that-

   17. DFDavid Friedberg2:24

       We, we are there too and we're just waiting any day.

   18. JCJason Calacanis2:27

       Any day.

   19. DFDavid Friedberg2:27

       Like, literally any hour. Um, so we were-

   20. JCJason Calacanis2:30

       How do we get action on this? Can we, can we bet who's gonna come first? Or-

   21. CPChamath Palihapitiya2:33

       I think, I think Friedberg is gonna come first because it's his third.

   22. DFDavid Friedberg2:35

       Yeah.

   23. CPChamath Palihapitiya2:36

       It's only Nat's... It's Alison's third. It's Nat's second.

   24. JCJason Calacanis2:39

       Okay, yeah. So we're gonna lay odds? Two to one? What do we got?

   25. CPChamath Palihapitiya2:42

       I'll take, I'll take the over under on... What day is it today? Today is the 15th. We're getting induced on the 26th. That's 11 days from now. I'll take the over under on the, I'll take the over under on, uh, the 21st.

   26. JCJason Calacanis2:58

       That you're setting the line?

   27. CPChamath Palihapitiya2:59

       I'll set the line at the 21st of October.

   28. JCJason Calacanis3:01

       I'm going over. I'll go over for a thou.

   29. DFDavid Friedberg3:03

       This is for Nat?

   30. DSDavid Sacks3:04

       Book it.
3. 4:24 – 8:53

   Supply chain challenges in Los Angeles

   1. JCJason Calacanis4:24

      Uh, there's been a supply chain, uh, interruption right now. There's some shortages, obviously, of key components like microchips. We all know this. According to Car and Driver, the top three models impacted by the chip shortage were the Ford F-Series pickup trucks, Jeep Cherokee SUVs, and the Chevy Equinox SUVs. Basically, a lot of the cars, uh, that, uh, have advanced driving systems are now removing them. I was looking at getting, uh, an SUV for the winter and, uh, was looking at the Cadillac Escalade and they took self-driving out of the 2022 model, or the autopilot basically, because they can't get the chips. Um, and we all know why this is happening, obviously COVID, uh, and then also on top of it, demand. So people are buying second computers, third computers. Places like Dell or having an Apple, are selling a lot of desktops, a lot of laptops. Um, and, uh, there's also a labor shortage. So the labor force, obviously, uh, here in the United States is much smaller than it was. Uh, we all know that people are raising salaries to try to get people to come back to work. They're turning off the bonus unemployment, uh, early in some states. We're hearing October. This is all supposed to be turned off by now. So I guess I'll start with you, Chamath, in terms of, uh, the markets here. Uh, what do you think is happening? And is this an acute risk or just something that will pass?

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya5:48

      I think the... Well, this is where I think I kind of generally disagree with the market. I think that most people are under the impression that these are short term, um, uh-... kind of contractions and expansions, and that this is just the, the thing that needs to get worked through the system as we readjust to a post-COVID world, blah, blah, blah. I think it's different. And the reason I think it's different is if you just look at, uh, one thing and one thing only, which is that we have a massive labor shortage in America. And there is an incredible stat that I saw, um, which was the average hourly earnings of non-manager people in hospitality and travel. And the average salary, the mean salary was around 20 some odd dollars an hour, and it's now 33 bucks an hour.

   3. DFDavid Friedberg6:38

      Phew.

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya6:40

      And so what that, to me, says is that we are going through a really sustained period where you cannot get people to do the work that needs to get done. Biden had to call the Port of L.A. and try to get these guys to be open 24 hours a day. The President of the United States is calling a local port trying to get it to stay open. But why can't they stay open? Because you have longshoremen, you have all these unionized folks who will expect to get certain levels of compensation, which they deserve in order to do that work 24/7, but then all of that is gonna get put through the system. And if you still have millions of jobs that needs to get done in order for the economy to function, the only efficient way that that's gonna get resolved is by raising salaries. And those are consistent and persistent. Right? Those things are not just like, "Oh, you know what I gave, yes, I did say 50 bucks an hour, but now I'm taking you back to 25."

   5. JCJason Calacanis7:31

      Yeah, you can't take that back. That's-

   6. CPChamath Palihapitiya7:32

      You can't do that.

   7. JCJason Calacanis7:32

      ... that's gonna be, that's, yeah.

   8. DFDavid Friedberg7:33

      So, I-

   9. CPChamath Palihapitiya7:34

      And then-

   10. DFDavid Friedberg7:34

       Yeah.

   11. CPChamath Palihapitiya7:34

       So, I tend to, so that- that's one thing. And then second, so there's people, right, so labor capital, I just think it's getting more and more expensive to get folks to do work, and then there's the raw materials that you use to make anything. And everything that I see is that stuff is going bananas. And so I put these two things together and I'm like, "I think this stuff is here to stay." Um, I'm really kind of a little bit of a, you know, and I, and I had not worried. And you, you can see in every episode before this, I was always consistently like, there is no inflation, you can fade the inflation trade. Now, I'm kind of positioning myself to, uh, hedge myself in this situation.

   12. JCJason Calacanis8:11

       All right, Friedberg, uh, we've seen the pictures, uh, uh, of the Long Beach, uh, and the Los Angeles, uh, ports. There's just ships out there, like, I think 70 or 80 is where it peaked at, uh, in July. I don't know, have the latest data here of when it updated. Um, but is there not a silver lining here that if people are making more money then we're gonna increase the size of the middle class and we're gonna ex- you know, increase upward mobility? And that it, is a double-edged sword. It's great that we increase the middle class, but then they're gonna wanna buy stuff. So if people-

   13. DFDavid Friedberg8:45

       Well, yeah. they really-

   14. JCJason Calacanis8:45

       ... are now making 35 bucks an hour and they were making 20, now they got more disposable. Now they're gonna go on Amazon-

   15. DFDavid Friedberg8:50

       Yeah.

   16. JCJason Calacanis8:50

       ... and buy more stuff and it's gonna accelerate this problem, is it not?

4. 8:53 – 34:04

   The Fed, interest rates and inflation

   1. JCJason Calacanis8:53

   2. DFDavid Friedberg8:53

      The challenge is the rate of change. This is what the Fed tries to manage, and, you know, there's a White House Economic Advisory Committee that's involved in trying to figure out what's gonna happen here. Because the current estimate is it's gonna take at least a year or probably a year to work through the current logjam in the global supply chains. And during that period of time, as Chamath points out, what's happening is the cost for goods is climbing because people have to, um, charge more because there's limited inventory and people are bidding up the, the value of that inventory. As they do that, the businesses, um, end up needing to get more labor, and so they have to pay more to hire people. If they pay more to hire people, those people end up demanding more, and the cycle can actually go the wrong direction where you have an inflationary spike that persists. How do you taper that inflation? It's not necessarily great for economic growth if you can't produce the stuff, and it can actually cause these runaway kind of effects in the dynamic system of supply and demand when you have these, these, these things clogging up the, the system for supply. So, um, so, so it is a real risk and it is the biggest thing that, um, you know, the White House, this economic task force is kind of trying to figure out right now is where does the balance lie where you can, um, you know, basically try and taper this inflationary effect that's being caused by this logjam in the supply chain without causing economic disruption by rising it, by raising interest rates. And so it's a really, uh, kind of complicated, you know, second and third derivative formula (laughs) that needs to kind of be resolved, and that's why so many of these little elements are so important to get right.

   3. CPChamath Palihapitiya10:27

      By the way, rates, by the way, central bankers around the world have raised rates. The only place that hasn't gone up is Europe, ECB, and the United States, the Federal Reserve. So, and let's be honest, you know, Europe and the United States, we absorb labor and materials from all around the world, right? We are the net importers. We are the net ultimate buyers of last resort of all of these things. And so if you're seeing inflation in those other, you know, supply-driven economies, they are gonna come onshore, they're gonna hit us in the face. I think prices are going up.

   4. DFDavid Friedberg10:57

      The, the other, the other free market argument that could be made is that these, um, these current trends will accelerate a trend towards more automation of, uh, low-cost labor, um, because it now will make sense for businesses to invest in the capital, in the CapEx, um, in the infrastructure, and ultimately for technology companies to build that in, that, that, that tooling, uh, to support that infrastructure that will automate jobs like working in fast food, like doing local delivery, like doing factory assembly, um, like moving things across the country in trucks. So self-driving trucks, um, uh, you know, factory automation, bio-manufacturing, additive and 3D manufacturing, and 3D printing, these are all industries that could benefit from the fact that labor now for kind of, you know, traditionally low-income work has gotten so expensive that it starts to make sense to switch to the technology alternative, which historically may have been too expensive but now starts to make economic sense to businesses.

   5. JCJason Calacanis11:55

      This is, uh-

   6. DFDavid Friedberg11:56

      And so there's a number of these automation industries that may significantly benefit and that ends up ultimately being deflationary and the market comes into balance. So that's another way to kind of think about the macro on what may play out here.

   7. DSDavid Sacks12:06

      There's a bigger risk here than just inflation.

   8. I mean, there, there's also a risk of, of, of stagnation or stagflation. Because it's not just-

   9. DFDavid Friedberg12:12

      Yeah.

   10. DSDavid Sacks12:13

       ... that prices are going up and workers' wages are going up, which could be a good thing. But goods and services just aren't being produced. So I mean, I know like my own experience, I, I recently ordered a Tesla. When I got a Tesla, uh, a couple years ago, like I got it in two weeks. It was like almost instant. This time, they wanted me to wait two months, and I just got an alert that it's gonna take two more months beyond that. So we have no idea, and if, and if, uh, you know, Tesla doesn't get most of the money, I don't think, until I actually take delivery of the car, right? That's when you make final payment. So now they can't book that revenue and those earnings. And Tesla isn't even the car company that's most affected by this. You know, the big, um, you know, traditional American auto companies like Ford are even more affected. So if companies cannot deliver their products, you, that can cause an economic recession. And I think like these are major storm clouds looming on the horizon. Now, what, what is the cause of this? I mean, I think it's, it's, um, it's multifactorial, a lot of the things that Chamath said. I just wanna really highlight this port issue. There was a great, uh, tweet storm by Zach Kanter earlier in the week where he said, "The supply chain crisis is a clever rebrand that makes it seem like there are grand exogenous forces at work rather than the unions holding ports for ransom while dozens of ships pile up, working just two shifts with a two-hour break in between, the country at their mercy." Uh, and he goes on to elaborate on that. And that is why, I mean, to Chamath's point-

   11. JCJason Calacanis13:37

       Shh. But they're, they're allowed to do that.

   12. DSDavid Sacks13:39

       But l- but to Chamath's point, uh, this is why Biden felt the need to, to get involved. So, um, the, the problem is if you read the fine print on this story of Biden announcing that the ports of, uh, LA and Long Beach will open 24 hours, which they clearly need to to get the goods to market, if you read the, like the bottom part of the story, everyone's announcing their intention to go 24/7, but there is no date certain for when that's gonna be. It's a negotiation with the unions. So Chamath, to your point, they are gonna have to negotiate with the unions. Um, you know, initially, it looked like the story was that Biden was gonna use his sway, his, his clout with the unions to basically push them to take a deal, but I don't think he's really done that. Everyone's just announcing their intention to negotiate. Well, you know, if the ports are holding the whole country hostage like this, that could cause a recession. I think that's gonna rebound very badly on Biden.

   13. DFDavid Friedberg14:30

       Can he do it? They're, they're, they're-

   14. JCJason Calacanis14:30

       Wait, hold on a second.

   15. DFDavid Friedberg14:31

       ... I think they're running 24/7 now, aren't they, Sax? Long Beach and LA are both running 24/7.

   16. DSDavid Sacks14:36

       Well, I just posted this article that came out, um, I mean, like yesterday, and it says... It was published, uh, two days ago, and it said there was not a date certain for when this... Oh, it's updated October 14th, which is yesterday. And if you read the bottom of the article, it says they have not determined a date for when 24/7 operations will start. They've just merely announced their intention-

   17. DFDavid Friedberg14:57

       Oh, yeah. I'm just saying-

   18. DSDavid Sacks14:57

       ... to go 24/7.

   19. DFDavid Friedberg14:58

       ... that the Biden administration says it's not really a... Uh, they, they announced it as if it was a done done, but it's not done.

   20. DSDavid Sacks15:03

       Look, unless Biden is willing to... Listen, I mean, Chamath, you're right that they're entitled to negotiate. But here's the thing. I mean, they're holding the whole country hostage now. They're holding the economy hostage. So at a certain point, if their demands are unreasonable, it's, it's, I think proper for the president of the United States to step in and say, "Guys, this is ridiculous. You have to go back to work. We're gonna make, you know, we're gonna help negotiate a deal here." That's what Reagan did with the air traffic controllers. The air traffic controllers union shut down the whole commercial aviation system. Reagan got involved, said, "You cannot shut down the economy this way."

   21. DFDavid Friedberg15:36

       That you can't strike.

   22. DSDavid Sacks15:36

       "You must go back to work." Yes, exactly. So I think Biden is probably gonna have to get tougher here.

   23. JCJason Calacanis15:40

       Not that these longshoremen are, or the ports, I guess, they're not striking. They're just not doing an extra shift. But he could do an executive order.

   24. DSDavid Sacks15:47

       Look, if they're doing, if they're doing two shifts, if they're doing two shifts two hours a day, that's like withholding. That's, that's like a partial strike.

   25. JCJason Calacanis15:53

       What do you mean? They're doing two two-hour shifts or two-

   26. DSDavid Sacks15:55

       That's what Zach Kanter was saying.

   27. JCJason Calacanis15:57

       ... eight hour shifts? Eight hour shifts. They can't be doing two hour shifts.

   28. DSDavid Sacks15:59

       No, no, no, no, no.

   29. JCJason Calacanis15:59

       That doesn't make sense. Why would anybody go to work for two hours?

   30. DSDavid Sacks16:01

       Read, read what Zach Kanter posted.
5. 34:04 – 43:11

   Geopolitical storm-clouds, deflationary tools

   1. JCJason Calacanis34:05

      Uh, Freberg, any thoughts on what's happening in Taiwan and what, uh, you know, even a modest conflict there would do to markets given how, to Sacks' point, this is the opposite of antifragile. We are in like full fragility here. I mean this is like, you know, a- a tray full of champagne glasses on a boat in rough seas. At any point we could trip and everything comes crashing down. Does it feel like that to you, Freberg, or do you feel like we're gonna be able to navigate this?

   2. DFDavid Friedberg34:33

      I mean, I- I don't know about Taiwan, but I think we're just going to keep inflating our way out of this mess. Like, remember, like, that- that's what we did last year and, um, it's what we'll do again this year. The- the- the biggest, um, losers in that equation are the, um, uh, the middle class, uh, 'cause, uh, you know, the middle class actually owns assets that are now gonna be worth less. Um, folks who are not in the middle class, that are below the middle class, don't own assets so it doesn't really affect them. They just make higher wages, but stuff costs more, so they'll be fine. And then, you know, wealthy individuals will end up getting taxed away, uh, to fund some of this. And I think that's the inevitable kind of way that the equation balances.

   3. DSDavid Sacks35:18

      Right, but I mean-

   4. DFDavid Friedberg35:18

      And I think-

   5. DSDavid Sacks35:19

      ... think about how much tax rates are about to go up right now in this reconciliation bill. We haven't even gotten to like any of these crises. By the way, we don't know for sure if they're gonna happen. I think we could describe these things as storm clouds right now that are very much on the horizon. If they do-

   6. JCJason Calacanis35:31

      Multiple storm clouds, right. They're sort of like, they're converging.

   7. DSDavid Sacks35:35

      Right, but sort of like if they're converging. Right, and if they do materialize in the way that we're talking about, what weapons do we have left in order to fight them? What weapons of fiscal policy, what weapons of monetary policy?

   8. DFDavid Friedberg35:43

      We have one.

   9. DSDavid Sacks35:43

      We're already gonna have taxes at an all-time high.

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya35:46

       We only have one.

   11. DSDavid Sacks35:46

       Yeah, we're gonna have taxes-

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya35:47

       We're gonna print money. No, we're gonna print money and we're gonna pay ourselves. We're gonna go to the central bank. It's what you said. We're gonna monetize our debt. And taxes will go up.

   13. DFDavid Friedberg35:55

       And taxes will go up, that is a disaster.

   14. CPChamath Palihapitiya35:55

       Guys, I mean, look at, just remember, the top, um, marginal tax rate was what? 70, 80% in the, uh, '60s and '70s. I mean, you know, that's likely where we're gonna go back to.

   15. DSDavid Sacks36:06

       Well, I think we're already gonna be back there as a result of the reconciliation, but we're already-

   16. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:10

       As a result of the reconciliation, but we're not ending-

   17. DFDavid Friedberg36:11

       Right, so we've already- we've already broken the glass in case of emergency. We already done-

   18. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:14

       Oh my God, point... You're gonna, you're gonna see some of these wealth taxes get chased down. You're gonna see the top marginal tax rate go up 70, 80%. You know, I mean, I think that's the way the equation balances. It's not like the world's gonna end. We're gonna solve it by taking assets away from some, and we're going to inflate all the- all assets, like I mean...

   19. DSDavid Sacks36:28

       That sounds pretty bad. (laughs)

   20. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:31

       Yeah. (laughs) Yeah, I mean 78, if you keep the taxes-

   21. JCJason Calacanis36:33

       I mean 78, by the way it's not gonna affect, it's not gonna affect most people.

   22. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:35

       ... it's not gonna affect most people, who is going to work and taking the risk?

   23. DSDavid Sacks36:37

       That's not a solution, Freberg. It will affect most people.

   24. JCJason Calacanis36:39

       Most American people...

   25. DSDavid Sacks36:39

       It will affect most people even though they don't think it will because it's going to affect the quality of our economy.

   26. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:44

       I- I'm just trying to predict what's going to happen, Sacks. I'm not saying this is the solution to our problem. I mean, I- I think the solution to our problem is technology, but you know, the question is, does that come to market fast enough?

   27. JCJason Calacanis36:52

       Say- say more.... about that. Exactly.

   28. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:55

       I, I, I feel like we need a deflationary set of technologies that can, like, mitigate all of these effects, right? So-

   29. JCJason Calacanis37:00

       Robotics.

   30. CPChamath Palihapitiya37:01

       ... uh, software, automation, self-driving trucks, things that take the labor force... 'Cause people don't wanna work low-income jobs, factually. And, you know-
6. 43:11 – 47:00

   Why Sacks is hosting a fundraiser for Florida Governor DeSantis

   1. DSDavid Sacks43:11

   2. JCJason Calacanis43:11

      Let me ask you a question. You, uh, the, uh, it broke this week that you're hosting a fundraiser for Ron DeSantis. You got a little bit of blowback from that, uh, from the woke, uh, you know, and the San Francisco crowd. But in terms of your influence with somebody like that, do you think you can actually influence them to get Ron DeSantis to listen to this episode and maybe talk about the point-based system and change the framing of that? Do you think you have enough influence to do that?

   3. DSDavid Sacks43:35

      I don't know. I mean, I don't know exactly what his position on immigration is. That's not, that, that's not like the set of issues that's, um, that I respect him for. I mean, the reason why I wanted to support DeSantis is that he was the first governor to end these insane lockdowns. And, um, I mean, this is back in, it should have been obvious to everybody by May of 2020 that the lockdowns didn't work, and he was the first one to, to roll them back. And, um, and Florida did very well, especially considering that they have so many old people in Florida. So, you know, on the whole, not that I would have done everything exactly the way he did it, no. You know?

   4. JCJason Calacanis44:09

      Nobody did it perfect.

   5. DSDavid Sacks44:10

      Nobody did.

   6. JCJason Calacanis44:10

      Yes, but is he, is he a Trump supporter and, and-

   7. Yeah.

   8. ... a Trump acolyte or is he distancing himself from Trump?

   9. DSDavid Sacks44:17

      I think, I, I, honestly, I think that like point of view is coming from the point of view of somebody who's not in the Republican Party and doesn't have to deal with the dynamics of winning support in the Republican Party.

   10. JCJason Calacanis44:27

       No, no, that's what I'm saying. Yeah, so you have, you have to basically toe the line with Trump to get the nomination.

   11. DSDavid Sacks44:32

       I don't, I don't see it as toeing the line. I just think, look, I think he's his own person. He's the governor of Florida. He's setting policy over there. Um, he can be supported or not, based on what he's doing in Florida. I think like Trump is the issue that everybody on the other side will want to talk about. But I don't think it's relevant to what he's doing, it still isn't-

   12. JCJason Calacanis44:51

       But wait, there's, isn't a civil war-

   13. DSDavid Sacks44:52

       I don't think it's relevant to what he's doing.

   14. JCJason Calacanis44:53

       ... inside of the Republican Party over this?

   15. DSDavid Sacks44:55

       It's-

   16. JCJason Calacanis44:55

       And should we support Trump but with January 6th-

   17. DSDavid Sacks44:57

       I wouldn't say it's-

   18. JCJason Calacanis44:57

       ... and all this stuff?

   19. DSDavid Sacks44:58

       I wouldn't, I wouldn't say it's a civil war, but there definitely is some, some conflict. And yeah, I mean, look-

   20. JCJason Calacanis45:03

       How does he resolve?

   21. DSDavid Sacks45:05

       I hope it resolves in, look, I think elections are always about the future. I don't think people want to re-litigate the past. And I think that-

   22. JCJason Calacanis45:13

       Except for Trump.

   23. DSDavid Sacks45:13

       And I think that the Republican Party would be wise, I think, to find a candidate of the future and not try to rehash or re-litigate the past. Um, another good reason for me to support DeSantis, I think he is a future-looking, future-oriented candidate. Um, I do think that, look, I'll say it, the stuff I hear Trump doing now in these speeches where he's re-litigating what happened last year, um, and, and, and attacking other Republicans like McConnell, because he doesn't, because they failed his personal loyalty test. Um, it's a little bit like what he did, frankly, in Georgia with the runoffs where-

   24. JCJason Calacanis45:49

       Yeah.

   25. DSDavid Sacks45:49

       ... he sowed so much chaos that-

   26. JCJason Calacanis45:51

       Yeah.

   27. DSDavid Sacks45:51

       ... the Republicans lost a seat, the Purdue seat that they had won on election night, and then they had that runoff.

   28. JCJason Calacanis45:58

       Facts.

   29. DSDavid Sacks45:59

       And you have to say that a huge part of the reason for that was the, was Trump attacking Raffensperger and, and all the Georgia GOP because he thought they were insufficiently loyal to him. And then, you know, you had the whole, the tape come out of can you just find 11,000 votes. I mean, I think voters in Georgia punished the Republican Party for that by, by giving that seat to the Democrats. That is the, that, that margin created the Democratic majority, which will now give us probably an incremental four to six trillion of spending and tax increases that we wouldn't otherwise have had.

   30. JCJason Calacanis46:31

       Mm-hmm.
7. 47:00 – 55:31

   Ted Sarandos responds to Netflix employees,

   1. JCJason Calacanis47:00

      did anybody read the Ted Sarandos memo?

   2. Yeah, this is great. They should definitely jump into this. We talked about, uh, the Chappelle performance, uh, Sachs and, uh, Freebird, you hadn't seen it?

   3. You guys watch it?

   4. Did you watch it?

   5. Did you watch it?

   6. Oh, God, what nerds.

   7. You haven't watched it yet?

   8. You didn't watch it? Oh my God. You guys are culturally bankrupt. Can you please just-

   9. What were you guys doing this week, like fucking beakers and like, you know-

   10. Jesus Christ.

   11. ... Sachs, you were just like-

   12. Were you like in, like some laboratory doing like Sachs testing?

   13. Yeah, their beakers, they were doing their beakers.

   14. DSDavid Sacks47:26

       I haven't watched it yet, but I don't need to watch it to know I support it. (laughs)

   15. JCJason Calacanis47:29

       (laughs)

   16. (laughs) Freedom of speech. He's just, yeah, he doesn't have to click on the link. All right.

   17. DSDavid Sacks47:34

       There's, there's almost nothing Chappelle could say to make me want to cancel him.

   18. JCJason Calacanis47:40

       Cancel him.

   19. DSDavid Sacks47:40

       I mean, and by the way, I've seen a lot of Chappelle, Chappelle. And I love Chappelle, so I think I understand the gist of what he was doing. But I do need to see it still.

   20. JCJason Calacanis47:47

       All right, let me-

   21. DSDavid Sacks47:48

       But look, he should not be canceled, it's ridiculous.

   22. JCJason Calacanis47:51

       I don't think he is. (laughs)

   23. DSDavid Sacks47:53

       He's going to survive.

   24. JCJason Calacanis47:54

       Of course.

   25. DSDavid Sacks47:55

       Here's the thing though-

   26. JCJason Calacanis47:55

       This goes beyond this. Um, let me read you from it. So everybody knows that the name of the, uh, special he did was The Closer. It was released on October 5th, a lot of outcry from GLAAD and, uh, advocacy groups and actually people inside of, uh, Netflix. There's been some resignations. There have been some people who contribute content to Netflix who are now saying they'll not work with the company. And, um, it's really interesting. Ted Sarandos sent a memo to the entire company on Monday, and he's, this is the second one he sent. And he says, "We know that a number of you have been left angry, disappointed and hurt by our decision to put Dave Chappelle's latest special on Netflix." Very interesting opening. He's, he's addressing their feelings. Just, this is a masterclass in a memo, because in that first part, he just addresses, "I understand you feel that way." With The Closer, we understand that the concern is not about offensive to some content, but titles which could increase real world harm. So now he's framing their argument as, it's not because it's offensive, it's because of real world harm. You've brought this up before, Sachs, the real world harm concept with, um, Apple and, uh, Antonio. "While some employees disagree, we have a strong belief that content on screen does not directly translate into real world harm." It's not exactly true. Uh, we'll get into that. "The strongest evidence to support this is that violence on screens has grown hugely over the last 30 years, especially with first-party shooter games."...and yet violent crime has fallen significantly in many countries. Uh, and so he goes above and beyond just talking about offensive material. Uh, "Adults can watch violence, assault and abuse, or enjoy shocking stand-up comedy without it causing them to harm others. Stand-up comedians often expose issues that are uncomfortable because the art by nature is highly provocative. As a leadership team, we do not believe that The Closer is intended to incite hatred or violence against anyone, per our sensitive content guidelines." So basically, he says, you know, if you don't like it, change the channel. If you're a customer, you can cancel your subscription. Or if you work here and you don't like it, you don't need to work here. But is this the end of cancel culture, this combined with Brian Armstrong's positioning? Sachs, this is your-

   27. DSDavid Sacks50:03

       I don't- I don't-

   28. JCJason Calacanis50:03

       ... uh, um-

   29. DSDavid Sacks50:03

       ... think it's the end of it, uh, for the simple reason, um, le- let's assume that this comic had not signed a $60 million deal with- with Netflix. Let's say he had signed a $60,000 deal, okay? And-

   30. JCJason Calacanis50:14

       Or $6 million, yeah.
8. 55:31 – 1:02:34

   Cancel culture’s lifespan, book recommendations

   1. DSDavid Sacks55:31

      up to this."

   2. JCJason Calacanis55:32

      Shemath, is the Overton Window, uh, on a go-forward basis, do you see it closing more, staying where it is, or perhaps even opening?

   3. CPChamath Palihapitiya55:41

      There's a, there's a really great philosopher, this is, uh, this is my, maybe my one and only grand tribute to Peter Thiel, but he, he is, um, he's a huge supporter of a philosopher named René Girard. And, uh, uh, I agree with a lot of, uh, a lot of that, uh, uh, a l- a lot of René Girard's philosophies, and basically it's called memetic theory. And the idea is, you're born without preferences and then you kind of just copy what's around you. And so what the other person wants is what you want, and that's what ultimately leads to a lot of conflict. And the only way to resolve conflict is, is with a huge grand sacrifice of some kind, okay? Um, and if you think about it here, if you're going to really put, you know, cancel culture, if you're gonna kill it, there needs to be some just massive escalation and conflict around this idea that allows us to resolve it in one way or the other, in one direction or the other. And I don't think this is it. I think it's not big enough, quite honestly. I think it's a little bit sort of, like, you know, there's folks like us that love comedy, um, and we're willing to keep it in a very strict box, which is let people say what they're going to say, be shocked with it, and don't take it onto yourself and don't, you know, and go and reflect it into the world. It's entertainment and you can... You know, it's like, I choose not to watch, um, violent stuff 'cause I don't like it. I find it, I find it very offensive or, um, you know, I don't play first person shooters, I find it really unsettling. You know, Grand Theft Auto, I found it really outrageous. Um, and other people will feel like that about Chappelle. My whole thing is, we should all be allowed to make those judgments, because I think we're all still pretty rational people at the end of the day and do the right thing in the normal world. But this isn't the thing that's gonna get this, uh, issue to be resolved. So I don't know how it comes. There needs to be some huge escalation around this thing. I suspect what happens is it actually just, uh, dissipates and goes away. And the reason is because everybody who's much younger than us has such a huge digital footprint that they've created through their whole lives.

   4. JCJason Calacanis57:52

      They're, they're at risk.

   5. CPChamath Palihapitiya57:53

      There is so much shit that's out there-

   6. JCJason Calacanis57:55

      Oh, God, yes.

   7. CPChamath Palihapitiya57:56

      ... that they just have no choice but to let everybody else off the hook. We, "we" are in a very different situation because we were doing some fucking shady stuff always on the down low, always hidden.

   8. JCJason Calacanis58:09

      Whoa. Whoa, easy there, (laughs) but that, that's how it was We were not... ... if you're in your, if you're in your 40s. Our, our childhoods were largely anonymous, yeah.

   9. CPChamath Palihapitiya58:14

      You would, you would roll deep and you would just, you would pretend, you would not, you know? And now the culture is very different. And I think with that comes a lot of acceptance. Every, you know, every kid at some point may or may not be on Tinder, Bumble, Ria, you know, Grindr, whatever. So there's gonna be a body of that content that's out there. Every kid will have said something crazy, you know, on TikTok. And all of this stuff will be there and so you'll have a choice, which is, if you're going to hold me accountable, I'm going to hold you accountable and so it's mutually assured destruction. And I think that's what causes cancel culture to go away in time. It's the last vestige of very guilty people of our generation.

   10. JCJason Calacanis58:52

       Fascinating. What do you think, Friedberg? Is the Overton Window opening, closing, or about the same over the next year?

   11. DFDavid Friedberg58:56

       No, I mean, look, I think, I think what, what Shemath is saying is right. I, um, I think I've referred to this book called The Light of Other Days before when we've talked. I think so, right?

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya59:06

       Yeah.

   13. DFDavid Friedberg59:06

       Um, the book is, like, all about this notion of all information is available to everyone everywhere and societal norms completely change. People no longer find things offensive and they no longer... And, and everyone basically shifts to a mode of much more kind of open dialogue because, you know, keeping things behind closed doors and then positioning one person against the other completely changes when you can see everyone's cards all the time. Um, and so I think, yeah, generally we're headed that way. I don't think we're gonna... Information wants to be free, more information is being generated about each of us all the time. I don't think that we're headed in the opposite direction, kind of back to a Victorian era. I think we're, we're going in the other way. So there, there's gonna be blips and starts, um, uh, that, that'll kind of, you know, be setbacks on that general trajectory. Um, so yeah, I, I do think it's, it's, it's a moment, you know, it's a moment in time right now, um, where this is happening.

   14. JCJason Calacanis59:56

       I mean, Sax-

   15. DFDavid Friedberg59:57

       Uh-

   16. JCJason Calacanis59:57

       ... if you look at the two examples we've discussed, Brian Armstrong and, uh, Coinbase, that was about essentially Black Lives Matters and talking about social justice at work. And this one is about trans, uh, and trans rights and essentially, I don't, I don't wanna say poking fun at or, you know, uh, discussing, uh, I mean, he basically says in it that he's team TURF. If you were to take two organizations that standing up against would be the most challenging and difficult, I think those are the top two. No?

   17. DSDavid Sacks1:00:29

       I guess so.

   18. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:00:29

       That-

   19. DSDavid Sacks1:00:30

       I mean-

   20. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:00:30

       That's why I think this is the mo- this is the most telling is that you have two different organizations saying, "Hey, we're gonna put our foot down." Just for a background, Netflix had a very strange, um... I didn't see the actual film, so I won't make judgment on it, uh, but it was a very strange, uh, trailer for a film called Cuties, which was really over sexualizing young girls, like eight, nine, 10 year old girls. And they didn't take it down, um, in the United States, uh, Netflix, but, uh, they did take it down in some countries- It was in, it was in France. It was in France.

   21. JCJason Calacanis1:00:57

       It was a French movie.

   22. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:00:58

       Yeah, it was a French movie.

   23. JCJason Calacanis1:00:59

       And they have a different view of kids and sexuality and yeah, uh, I think people found it a little dark, uh, here in the United States, but they, they survived that one as well, uh, or they weathered that one as well. So I think what people are finding is, if you put your foot down at a certain point, then they'll say-

   24. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:14

       I think what Sax says is right, than they've... These guys have realized that if we have this very specific message-... around artistic freedom and we never violate it. Because that's one of those things where if you take that hill, you have to be there forever, right? You can't have asterisks around that idea. But by doing that, they basically dominate the content production game in Hollywood, which then allows them to field the most content at the cheapest a- average price, which then makes churn less and customer acquisition higher. And they're already the largest media company in the world and they're only gonna get bigger. You know, they're... And Netflix has, what, 200 million subscribers? They're gonna get to a billion subscribers. It's just inevitable. And so for them, I do think it's a very rational business position to take-

   25. JCJason Calacanis1:01:59

       Yes.

   26. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:59

       ... which is that I have to appeal to a billion people over the next, you know-

   27. JCJason Calacanis1:02:02

       Yes.

   28. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:02

       ... seven or eight years.

   29. JCJason Calacanis1:02:03

       And you, you don't have to watch everything on Netflix. You do not have to listen-

   30. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:06

       You, you, you can't-
9. 1:02:34 – 1:08:24

   Tether

   1. JCJason Calacanis1:02:34

      go Tether, FDA chaos, or Tether questions?

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:36

      Well, Tether las- Why, why don't you take, uh, why don't you do your reverse victory lap? Because after all, you're shit-

   3. JCJason Calacanis1:02:41

      It's not a victory lap for me, but-

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:43

      No, e- bro, it was the exact opposite.

   5. JCJason Calacanis1:02:45

      It's a fraud!

   6. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:45

      It is not a fra-

   7. JCJason Calacanis1:02:47

      It's a-

   8. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:47

      It's a fucking fraud. Come on.

   9. JCJason Calacanis1:02:48

      Can you please stop-

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:49

       Can you please stop saying that? Apparently the CFTC went in, did the work, and is actually now refuting what you thought was the case, Jason.

   11. JCJason Calacanis1:02:56

       Okay.

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:56

       So why don't you just talk about-

   13. JCJason Calacanis1:02:57

       How about, how about I read you the quote? From at least-

   14. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:58

       (laughs)

   15. JCJason Calacanis1:02:58

       ... June 1st, 2016 to February 25th, 2019-

   16. DSDavid Sacks1:03:01

       When was this? When was this-

   17. JCJason Calacanis1:03:01

       ... Tether misrepresented to customers and the market that Tether maintains sufficient US dollar reserves to back every USDT in circulation with the equivel- equivalent amount of corresponding fiat currency held by Tether and safely deposited in Tether bank accounts. Uh, in other words, they told everybody they were one for one, they were not. They lied to the public-

   18. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:22

       What were they, Jason?

   19. JCJason Calacanis1:03:22

       ... and that's why they're getting a 41 million dollar fine.

   20. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:24

       Was this, was this Zero, Zero to one?

   21. JCJason Calacanis1:03:24

       That's why they're banned from New York and that's why they're banned from, uh, trading in Canada, I think. And they're supposedly a Department of Justice, um... These guys are shady as eff, AF, eff.

   22. DSDavid Sacks1:03:37

       Am I-

   23. JCJason Calacanis1:03:37

       Shady AF.

   24. DSDavid Sacks1:03:37

       Do you have a, do you have a, do you have an economic interest in Tether?

   25. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:41

       No.

   26. JCJason Calacanis1:03:41

       In crypto he does, but not in Tether.

   27. DSDavid Sacks1:03:42

       No, no, no. I, I, I- How can anyone have an economic interest in Tether? All it is-

   28. JCJason Calacanis1:03:45

       Yeah. (laughs)

   29. DSDavid Sacks1:03:45

       ... is a one for one tokenized dollar.

   30. JCJason Calacanis1:03:47

       Well, no-
10. 1:08:24 – 1:23:27

    The FDA’s new ruling on Aspirin, what this means for science

    1. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:08:24

       you wanna lead this?

    2. JCJason Calacanis1:08:25

       Friedberg, you wanna tell us about the chaos at the FDA?

    3. DFDavid Friedberg1:08:27

       Well, I don't think it's chaotic like you guys think it is. Um, I'll make that counter-

    4. JCJason Calacanis1:08:31

       Well, then just counter ... Just have one-

    5. DFDavid Friedberg1:08:31

       Why don't you, why don't you make your chaos point first and then I'll make mine counter-

Episode duration: 1:33:24