Skip to content
All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast

E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure

0:00 Bestie Intro: Miami talk, gambling stories, Nancy Pelosi's retirement plans 12:30 Understanding the Omicron variant 24:49 Tech stocks plummet: why the selloff? 33:44 Inflation: here to stay? What's the 10-year outlook? 44:57 Anticipating a "Great Resignation" of successful VCs 54:45 Tech people ruining Art Basel, comparing Bay Area / South Florida immigrant communities in terms of political activity, success of Indian-Americans in tech 1:02:08 Mike Bloomberg donates $750M to charter schools 1:07:52 Jack Dorsey's departure from Twitter, what it means for free speech Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/trvrb https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2115463 https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1466799350990839810 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1465037481187987457 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-create-new-state-owned-rare-earths-giant-11638545586 https://www.shippingandfreightresource.com/china-us-freight-rates-plunge-but-china-manufacturing-woes-create-new-headaches-for-shippers https://fortune.com/2021/08/09/lumber-prices-down-2018-levels https://twitter.com/rabois/status/1466816803418615812 https://twitter.com/michelletandler/status/1465393612577853440 https://www.wsj.com/articles/michael-bloomberg-why-im-backing-charter-schools-covid-19-learning-loss-teachers-union-11638371324 https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/11/18/1012066/emtech-stage-twitters-cto-on-misinformation https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/twitter-is-about-to-get-way-worse #allin #tech #news

David FriedberghostJason CalacanishostChamath Palihapitiyahost
Dec 3, 20211h 18mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Omicron fears, tech correction, VC exits, and Twitter’s new era

  1. The All-In hosts open with banter but quickly dig into the emerging Omicron COVID variant, debating its likely medical impact versus media and policy overreaction. They then unpack the sharp drawdown in high-growth tech stocks, tying it to inflation, interest-rate expectations, and overextended private valuations.
  2. A major thread is the “great resignation” among veteran VCs, who, after a decade of easy money and huge wins, are retiring or pivoting to more mission-driven areas like climate tech and Web3. The group also covers political and social issues including inflation’s structural roots, urban disorder in San Francisco, Bloomberg’s $750M charter-school bet, and the implications of Jack Dorsey’s departure from Twitter.
  3. Throughout, they argue that Omicron is likely a medical “nothing burger” but a real policy and market risk, that inflation is more structural than transitory, and that the coming decade will be far tougher for growth investors. They close by warning of rising social-media censorship and the competitive opening it creates for platforms like TikTok.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Omicron’s spread may be huge, but severity looks limited so far.

Friedberg notes Omicron is highly transmissible with many spike-protein mutations and strong immune evasion, yet early South African data show high case counts with relatively mild disease and limited hospital spikes, suggesting it could be less severe than feared.

Markets used Omicron as cover for an overdue growth-stock reset.

Chamath argues the variant was a convenient narrative for investors who already wanted to de-risk; hundreds of growth names are down 30–40% while the overall indices remain near highs, implying a sector-specific multiple compression rather than a broad crash.

Rising inflation and rate expectations shrink the value of distant cash flows.

Friedberg explains that when interest rates rise from near zero, investors can earn a risk-free return, so they must discount far-future revenues more heavily—compressing 70–100x revenue multiples in public markets and stranding private companies priced off those peaks.

Structural inflation stems from underinvestment and labor distortions, not just supply shocks.

Chamath points to years of underinvestment in domestic energy and critical minerals, combined with reduced immigration and changing work incentives, as drivers of persistent price pressure that won’t be solved quickly by stock-market moves or short-term policy tweaks.

Veteran VCs are cashing out or pivoting as the easy-money decade ends.

Sacks and Friedberg describe a cohort of partners at large firms who’ve had huge 10-year runs and now question committing to a tougher macro environment; many are instead moving into climate tech, healthcare, or Web3 where they see more purpose-driven impact.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

This whole thing is a complete fucking nothing burger.

Chamath Palihapitiya (on Omicron’s likely real-world impact)

What’s really important now is how policymakers are gonna respond to this, not the true severity of the risk.

David Friedberg (on Omicron and policy-driven economic damage)

Everybody that thinks the stock market is doing poorly is wrong. It is doing exceptionally well. It’s just that the 400 stocks people in Silicon Valley care about have been getting kicked in the teeth.

Chamath Palihapitiya (on sector-specific pain in growth tech)

If you buy lottery tickets every day and one day you hit the $12 million jackpot, you’re not going back to 7-Eleven the next day to keep buying lottery tickets.

David Friedberg (on why many VCs are stepping back after big wins)

All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing. Jack Dorsey may be a good man, but he did nothing, or very little, to stop this agenda of censorship.

David Sacks (on Twitter’s free-speech retreat under Dorsey)

Scientific and policy implications of the Omicron COVID variantGrowth tech stock sell-off, inflation, and interest-rate expectationsPrivate markets, SPACs, and the risk to overvalued late-stage startupsVC “great resignation” and second acts in climate tech and Web3Structural versus transitory inflation and supply-chain normalizationUrban decay, crime, and progressive policy in San FranciscoJack Dorsey’s exit, Twitter’s new leadership, and online speech moderation

High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.

Get more out of YouTube videos.

High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.

Add to Chrome