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E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more

0:00 Bestie intro and poker recap 3:14 Elizabeth Holmes verdict, origins of the fraud, breakdown of the Theranos promise 17:51 Lessons for founders and investors from the Theranos debacle, bad behavior a sign of the top 26:09 Implications of "The Great Markdown" on public and private markets, confusing FED decisions 45:56 Advice for founders on navigating a downturn 1:00:01 a16z's new mega funds; should they go public? How does that change partner dynamics? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-elizabeth-holmes-verdict-theranos-founder-is-guilty-on-four-of-11-charges-in-fraud-trial-11641255705 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58469882 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/technology/elizabeth-holmes-verdict.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-theranos-fraud-elizabeth-holmes-convicted-trial-blood-testing-start-up-11641330471 https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-maris-explains-why-gv-didnt-invest-in-theranos-2015-10 https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2021/06/insights-the-delaware-edition/delaware-courts-expand-plaintiffs-rights https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/fed-minutes-december-2021.html https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE http://www.paulgraham.com/aord.html https://www.socialcapital.com/annual-letters/2019 https://medium.com/craft-ventures/the-burn-multiple-51a7e43cb200 https://www.statista.com/statistics/266206/googles-annual-global-revenue https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/07/andreessen-horowitz-raises-9b-in-new-capital-for-venture-growth-bio-funds #allin #tech #news

Chamath PalihapitiyahostJason CalacanishostDavid Friedberghost
Jan 7, 20221h 6mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud lessons, and startup survival in downturns

  1. The hosts dissect Elizabeth Holmes’ fraud conviction, emphasizing the clear legal line between visionary ambition and lying about a company’s present capabilities, customers, and deals.
  2. They explore how media hype, social proof, and investor herd behavior helped enable Theranos, while sophisticated Silicon Valley VCs largely stayed away due to obvious red flags.
  3. The conversation shifts to the broader market: a sharp valuation correction in tech and SaaS, Fed policy whiplash, and what this means for the 900+ unicorns and late-stage private companies.
  4. They close with practical advice for founders on capital efficiency, becoming or approaching “default alive,” focusing on real unit economics, and preparing to build through a potentially tougher funding environment.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Founders can sell a big vision, but must never misrepresent present reality.

The clear legal line in the Holmes case was lying about existing customers, partnerships, and product capabilities; you can be messianic about the future, but must be precise and honest about what works today.

Media hype and social proof can create self-reinforcing fraud cycles.

Holmes amplified her story because each bigger claim led to more glowing coverage, which in turn attracted investors, partners, and talent—until that same narrative gave journalists incentives to tear her down.

Do your own diligence; never outsource thinking to reputations or headlines.

Theranos investors often relied on big names (Murdoch, DeVos, ex–secretaries, generals) and flattering press instead of independent checks; sophisticated VCs passed precisely because they pushed for technical and financial transparency.

The “one drop of blood for hundreds of tests” claim is still mostly science fiction.

While microfluidics and certain assays (e.g., cholesterol, glucose) are feasible on tiny samples, current physics and biology make broad panels of hundreds of accurate tests from a single drop unrealistic for now.

Tech and SaaS are undergoing a major multiple compression driven by Fed policy.

Loose monetary policy inflated growth-stock and SaaS revenue multiples far above historical norms; with the Fed tightening faster and signaling balance-sheet shrinkage, high-multiple names have corrected sharply, and some further mean reversion is possible.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

As a founder, you can be as messianic as you want to be… but you must be accurate about the current state of your business.

David Sacks

The more she said, the bigger she said it, the more she claimed she could do, the bigger the story got… and the whole thing became this kind of reinforcing cycle.

David Friedberg

When you start working with the media in this way to promote your company, you're playing with fire because the media really has two kinds of stories. They build up and they tear down.

David Sacks

The argument of unprofitable growth is a vestige of fund dynamics and VCs who wanna raise larger and larger funds to line their pockets with fees.

Chamath Palihapitiya

If you can achieve those six things, in that order, every step of the way… you can build the next Google.

David Friedberg

Elizabeth Holmes/Theranos verdict and the legal definition of startup fraudRole of media hype, social proof, and weak diligence in enabling scamsTechnical feasibility and limits of “one-drop” blood testing and microfluidicsMarket correction in high-growth tech and SaaS valuations (“regression to the mean”)Federal Reserve policy shifts, liquidity, and impact on public and private marketsOvervalued unicorns, exits at flat or lower valuations, and cap table stressTactical advice for founders: default alive, burn multiples, and disciplined growth

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