All-In PodcastE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
All-In Besties Dissect Inflation, Jobs, Housing, Energy, And Dutch Farmers
- The hosts analyze the evolving macro environment, arguing the U.S. is in a complex, multi-phase downturn combining a supply-side shock from COVID with looming demand destruction driven by Fed rate hikes and inflation. They explore labor market distortions, record job openings, shifting work patterns, and how consumer sentiment diverges from current spending behavior. A major focus is on housing, commercial real estate (especially San Francisco), and systemic risks from office vacancies and falling asset values. They also debate energy policy, rare earths, the EU’s nuclear pivot, and the Dutch farmer protests as examples of technocratic overreach, climate policy missteps, and the growing gap between elites and working-class concerns.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasCurrent inflation is driven by both supply and demand, requiring a multi-phase correction.
The hosts argue COVID lockdowns created a supply-side recession by idling capacity while trillions in stimulus boosted demand; now the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes risk a second, demand-side recession as savings are depleted and credit stress rises.
The labor market is bifurcated between white-collar slowdown and blue-collar shortages.
Tech and professional jobs are tightening while hospitality and retail still struggle to hire, with two job openings per unemployed worker and depressed labor-force participation suggesting structural issues and misaligned incentives rather than simple overheating.
Commercial real estate, especially in tech-heavy cities, faces severe structural risk.
San Francisco is projected to hit roughly 40% office vacancy as long-term leases roll off, undermining building cash flows, breaching debt covenants, and potentially triggering fire sales and broader financial contagion in lenders and debt funds.
Housing is the critical ‘next shoe to drop’ for households’ perceived wealth.
Mortgage rates have spiked from ~2.5% to ~5.3% but remain below long-term averages; existing home sales are softening but still elevated, and a more pronounced decline in volumes and prices would signal deeper recessionary pressure on consumers.
Consumer behavior has not yet fully matched negative sentiment, but credit stress is building.
Despite record-low sentiment and widespread belief that a recession has begun, travel and discretionary spending remain strong, likely funded by remaining savings and rising credit card balances; delinquencies and job losses are key indicators to watch next.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesWe have been in a supply-side recession, and now by raising rates to some crazy amount, we may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand-side recession.
— Chamath Palihapitiya
There’s literally no way to predict this. It’s like throwing three rocks in a pond and trying to model how the ripples interact.
— David Friedberg
I don’t understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco half the buildings don’t end up getting owned by the banks.
— David Sacks
Humans use roughly between two and six percent of our energy every year to make ammonia… If not for synthetic fertilizer, humans would have starved in the mid-20th century.
— David Friedberg
There are structural lies baked into ESG. There’s nothing ESG about Conoco and Exxon per se. It’s ridiculous.
— Chamath Palihapitiya
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