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E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more

0:00 Bestie intros 1:45 First principle politics, analyzing each party's cynicism 48:07 Chaos in China: bank protests, housing protests, slowing economic and population growth, future outlook 1:09:21 Automation and the impact of the information economy 1:16:31 BlackRock loses $1.7T of investor money during H1 2021, state of private and public markets 1:36:36 Amazon acquires One Medical Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/pelositracker_/status/1549535561718714368 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/biden-pelosi-trip-taiwan-china-military-00047031 https://www.wsj.com/articles/nancy-pelosis-taiwan-education-china-taipei-military-defense-11658265311 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/china-warns-forceful-measures-if-us-house-speaker-pelosi-visits-taiwan-2022-07-19/ https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-repays-department-energy-loan-nine-years-early https://housestockwatcher.com/summary_by_rep/Hon.%20Nancy%20Pelosi https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-quietly-try-to-jam-nancy-pelosi-on-stock-trading-ban https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/opinion/democrats-far-right-midterms.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/19/trailer-desantis-beats-trump-democrats-bet-maga-more-lessons-latest-fundraising-quarter/ https://www.reuters.com/article/obama-abortion/obama-says-abortion-rights-law-not-a-top-priority-idUKN2946642020090430 https://twitter.com/micsolana/status/1549868945640914951 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/18/spanish-language-media-disinformation/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/world/asia/china-bank-scandal-protest.html https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1549790086656581640 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html https://www.ft.com/content/91441aca-1665-4660-843f-9cf7222becff https://datacommons.org/place/country/CHN https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-22/china-housing-market-slowdown-drags-economy https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-distress-deepens-as-lockdowns-drag-on-11652703162 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220531-why-chinas-population-is-shrinking https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.dyn.tfrt.in?locations=cn https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinping-aims-to-rein-in-chinese-capitalism-hew-to-maos-socialist-vision-11632150725 https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/07/20/how-blackrock-lost-1-7t-of-clients-money/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/business/amazon-one-medical-deal.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/ex-coinbase-manager-arrested-in-us-crypto-insider-trading-case #allin #tech #news

Chamath PalihapitiyahostJason CalacanishostDavid FriedberghostGuestguest
Jul 21, 20221h 44mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Tech titans debate first-principle politics, China’s slowdown, and markets

  1. The hosts examine U.S. politics from a 'first principles' lens, criticizing Democratic and Republican cynicism, media bias, and structural grift in government spending and regulation.
  2. They debate Peter Thiel–backed Republican candidates, the realignment of working-class voters—especially Hispanics—toward the GOP, and the failure of Democrats to codify key social rights while fundraising off fear.
  3. A large segment unpacks the CHIPS Act, insider-trading optics around Nancy Pelosi’s trades, and how to more efficiently onshore semiconductor manufacturing without pure corporate welfare.
  4. They then zoom out to global macro: China’s demographic and economic challenges, the impact of zero-COVID and real-estate stress, the state of VC/private markets after the bubble, and Amazon’s healthcare expansion via its One Medical acquisition.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Working-class and Hispanic voters are drifting from Democrats toward a populist GOP.

The hosts argue Democrats have become a party of elite professionals and coastal donors, ceding crime, border, and cultural issues to Republicans who now position themselves as the working-class party.

Democrats’ failure to codify Roe and gay marriage reflects strategic fundraising cynicism.

They contend party leaders chose not to lock in rights when they had supermajorities, preferring to campaign and fundraise on the threat of their loss instead of resolving the issues legislatively.

Political stock trading erodes trust; strict restrictions and transparency are needed.

Using Pelosi’s timely semiconductor trades as an example, they call for blind trusts, pre-announced trading plans, or annual trading windows for lawmakers and families to eliminate obvious conflicts of interest.

Industrial policy must favor long-term incentives over one-off subsidies.

On the CHIPS Act, they argue that capex handouts to Intel/NVIDIA are inferior to sustained tax incentives or ultra-long-term, low-interest government loans that both align incentives and can return capital to taxpayers.

China’s growth model is hitting demographic and structural limits.

They highlight collapsing fertility, dependence on real estate and debt, zero-COVID rigidity, and a crackdown on entrepreneurship as factors that may slow China’s rise and shift its focus to domestic crisis management.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

The appearance of impropriety is impropriety. They shouldn’t be allowed to trade.

Jason Calacanis (on Pelosi’s trades and lawmakers owning stocks)

If you get rid of entrepreneurship and high-growth companies, their whole society is gonna become slow growth.

Chamath Palihapitiya (on Xi’s crackdown and China’s future)

The progressives are the most intolerant group in America. They’re the ones pushing cancel culture.

David Sacks (on who’s driving social intolerance)

I think that the government’s role is to support those in need, not those in want.

David Friedberg (on first-principles government responsibilities and waste)

If you’re a fund more than five years old and you didn’t distribute during the best window ever, it’s a hard no.

Chamath Palihapitiya (relaying LP sentiment about VCs who failed to return capital in the boom)

Peter Thiel–backed populist Republican candidates (JD Vance, Blake Masters) and party realignmentDemocratic Party strategy, media bias, and legislative cynicism (Roe, gay marriage, voting rights)Pelosi stock trading controversy and the CHIPS Act as corporate welfare vs national-security toolFirst-principles views on government’s role, social tolerance, and economic reformChina’s economic slowdown, demographics, real estate and banking stress, and industrial policyTechnology, automation, and AI (e.g., DALL·E 2) reshaping labor and creative industriesVenture and public market reset: valuations, funding slowdowns, LP pressure, and M&A (Amazon–One Medical)

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