E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more

Jason Calacanis 0:00 Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another All-In Podcast. We just got the show notes, and I'm ripping them up because the President has the 'Rona.

David Sacks 0:09 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 0:10 We knew this was a possibility. We had an incredible docket brewing, but as fate loves irony, we found out on Wednesday night, I believe, just in a brief timeline here, Wednesday night, uh, Hope Hicks, his personal assistant, uh, got the 'Rona. And then, of course, um, President Trump announced late last night that he, in fact, had the 'Rona and that his, uh, wife, Melania, also had the coronavirus. So with us today to discuss all things tech, politics, and coronavirus, David Friedberg, David Sacks, and bestie si Chamath Palihapitiya are with us. Uh, I guess, maybe we'll just drop it right to you, Friedberg. You, you are our, um, science kid here in the class. Uh, what is... When we look at the President's, um, physique-

David Sacks 1:04 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 1:04 ... he's clinically obese-

David Friedberg 1:06 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 1:06 ... technically. I'm not saying that to be cruel, but he's a 74-year-old who's clinically obese and snorts Adderall.

David Sacks 1:12 (coughs)

Jason Calacanis 1:12 Uh, we don't know that. That's just a claim. Um, but seriously, what, what is the prognosis here? And then, uh, I, my... I understand he's now got a experimental treatment, was just announced an hour ago, uh, at the taping of this on Friday afternoon.

David Friedberg 1:25 I think, I, I-

Jason Calacanis 1:25 And, of course, we wish them all the greatest speedy recovery, et cetera, but let, let's get r- let's get into the facts here.

David Friedberg 1:31 I think the o- the overall mortality rate for, um, someone of his age is in, call it, the 2 to 4% range, right? And for someone with, with... You know, he's not known to have diabetes or high blood pressure. But generally, you could kind of say there's some risk factors maybe associated. Um, so a couple points. But the reality is the treatment that he got is one that's not available to the public and is effectively like creating these, uh, you know, uh, taking these antibodies to the coronavirus. And he got, uh, eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy, um, that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll, uh, eliminate the virus. And they're not, um, widely available. They're not publicly available, these treatments. But, uh, you know, uh, based on the early trials and the general experience with using synthetic and, you know, polyclonal antibodies for, uh, infectious, uh, disease like this, it's pretty effective. And he should kind of, uh, (slaps hand) you know, recover pretty quickly, I would imagine. So he's getting-

Jason Calacanis 2:30 So him, him dying would basically be a two outer. Him getting this special treatment makes it a, a one outer, if we were talking about this in poker terms. Uh, Chamath, when you, when you look at this turn of events and you saw the news, what was your first thought?

David Sacks 2:44 Um, that it's now basically 100% guaranteed that we will have all of the most transparent data about coronavirus, um, soon. So for example, you know, we, we've been in this position where we've been debating hydroxychloroquine, we've been debating these, um, you know, all of these different, uh, regimens. Um, and the reality is the President of the United States, if he doesn't get the absolute top-notch care, um, we're all in some ways fucked. So it's, it's probably likely that he's going to get the thing that folks know to work, and then it'll be hard for everybody else to not wanna ask for that. And then it's going to be even harder for everybody to then not get some version of it. And so I think probably we're gonna deescalate a little bit of mask stuff, of testing stuff, of, you know, what the right course of care is. And, you know, frankly, I'll be honest with you, I hope... You know, I, I wouldn't vote for him, but I hope he's well. Um, I don't want anything to happen to the guy. Um, and I hope that he recovers and it... you know, he kicks it in the ass and that, um, whatever he took to get better, everybody else can get it too.

Jason Calacanis 4:00 All right, Sacks, coming around the horn here, talking about the political ramifications of this. You were feeling that, uh, Trump was likely to lose, uh, but here we are with the October surprise. And I hate to make this, uh, handicapping of the election, but this certainly is gonna have some impact. So with your Rain Man mind, and when you go through this deck of cards here, what does your brain, how do you assess this as, uh, the Rain Man? Is this an... going to be a net positive for his election, um, results? A negative, neutral? Wh- what... Handicap this for us in your mind. You must be thinking through this. And I, and I, and I... Again, disclaimers, we all want him to get better. Nobody wishes him ill. I'm sure some people do, but nobody wishes him ill.

David Sacks 4:46 Well, I'm seeing, I'm seeing, I'm seeing a lot of, uh, glee, frankly, on, on Twitter.

Jason Calacanis 4:51 Yeah.

David Sacks 4:51 Uh, a lot of people saying, "I told you so," or, "Karma's a bitch," or something like that.

Jason Calacanis 4:56 Yeah.

David Sacks 4:56 Um, th- uh, you know, sort of implying that Trump getting this was, was a moral failing, you know? Um, and, uh, so, you know, ce- certainly a lot of people are kind of reveling in it. Um, I think the-

Jason Calacanis 5:08 Well, he was certainly careless. I mean, he didn't wear masks. He said he didn't like to wear masks, so...

David Sacks 5:12 Well, I mean, do you, do-

Jason Calacanis 5:13 I mean, he was careless.

David Sacks 5:13 ... you wear a mask inside your house?

Jason Calacanis 5:16 No, but if I was in... walking around at a, a debate or something like that, and if I was on an airplane with 20 people, yeah, I would wear a mask, actually.

David Sacks 5:24 Right. I mean, you know, there were certainly a lot of precautions around the President. I mean, more than most people. I mean, any of us could get it from anybody-

Jason Calacanis 5:31 Yeah.

David Sacks 5:31 ... you know? Um, if, you know, our wife happens to go out to meet a friend for lunch or something like that and then brings it back. So there's almost no amount of carefulness you can do to completely avoid this, um-

Jason Calacanis 5:42 Mm-hmm.

David Sacks 5:42 ... unless you're willing to kind of lock yourself alone somewhere.

Jason Calacanis 5:45 Yeah.

David Sacks 5:45 Um, so I just... You know, eh, eh, th- this idea that somehow getting C- COVID is, is, is a moral failing is, is what I would take issue with. It's not, um... It's not altogether unlike, uh, the crazy things that, um, the religious right was saying in the 1980s, like, you know, about AIDS. Like when, you know, Jerry Falwell said it was God's punishment or something like that, trying to imply that-

Jason Calacanis 6:08 They called it the gay plague. I mean, let's just call it what it is. They basically said this is-

David Sacks 6:12 Right. But they, they, they implied somehow that this was, um, you know, some sort of, uh-

Chamath Palihapitiya 6:17 ... just comeuppance, you know, or something like that.

Jason Calacanis 6:19 Yeah, retribution from God for being gay.

Chamath Palihapitiya 6:20 Retribution, exactly, exactly. And, and you know, the virus doesn't know who it's infecting obviously. It doesn't-

Jason Calacanis 6:25 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 6:25 ... target sinners or whatever. And so I just think that, um, you know, th- this, all this, this sort of, uh, gleeful, um, sort of blaming that's going around, um, is, is inappropriate. And I think it could really backfire if, um, if Trump rapidly gets better. I mean, if Trump is better in, say, a week-

Jason Calacanis 6:45 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 6:45 ... um, and he's hitting the campaign trail again, you know, what, what previously will have appeared to be a moral failing could, it could now be argued to be a moral strength since he, you know, overcame it so easily. And, um, you know, so I think that if, if he rapidly recovers from this and hits the campaign trail again, it's gonna make him look strong. I think that if he has a hard time with the virus, if it's enervating, uh, the way that I think it, it took out Boris Johnson. I mean, I've heard British commentators say that Boris Johnson's just not, not even the same, doesn't have the same en- level of energy even now than he did behind, before the virus. Then I really think it could really hurt Trump in the last, you know, couple months-

Jason Calacanis 7:23 I mean, guys-

Chamath Palihapitiya 7:23 ... of this campaign.

Jason Calacanis 7:24 Look, we, I think we all know people, um, I'm sure you guys do, I do, who have gone through this and they all say the same thing, which is, "This thing really sucks." Now, there are all these people that say, "Oh, it's like dancing on tulips or daffodils." I've never encountered a single person like that. I see that, um, I see that maybe on Twitter or a friend of a friend, but all of my friends who've gotten it, they have really struggled through it. Some of these people are older, some of these people are younger, some of these people are healthy, some of these people are not. And consistently they say the same thing, which is that there's a couple of days where it literally feels like your chest is being, uh, pounded inside you. You can't move, you're just in pain. And then afterwards, the aftermath is you're at, you know, 50%, 60%, 70% of your lung capacity. Like, it, it does something to you. For a couple of weeks. I mean, Doc Sands- No. ... is a friend of ours, and he was very public with his experience. He tried to avoid it as best he could. He got hit with it and he got hit hard, and he said he felt like he was gonna die. It was the worst thing he's ever experienced.

Chamath Palihapitiya 8:24 Now Jason, I-

Jason Calacanis 8:24 I, I have friends that, that still complain two, three, four months after the fact that they're at 50%, 60% of cardiovascular capacity. And, you know, these, these people that I, that I'm specifically thinking about were really healthy going into coronavirus. Mm-hmm. And so I, I don't know, I just think it's something none of us want. Um, I don't think you would want to wish this on anybody.

Chamath Palihapitiya 8:43 Of course not, yeah.

Jason Calacanis 8:44 Um, you know, especially frankly, the President of the United States as a role. Um, and so I think folks just need to sort of, like, class up here, um, and hope that we figure out that he, A, gets the best care, and then B, we all know what it is, and then C, that we can get access to it too. That's, that's, uh, honestly I think that's all

Jason Calacanis 9:06 we should be wishing for.

David Friedberg 9:06 Jamal, did you see, did you see the letter they published on what he's getting? So they-

Jason Calacanis 9:10 I did, but... Go ahead and read it. Go ahead and read the free press part.

David Friedberg 9:12 The doc- the doctor published, it was not too long ago, right, Jason? I saw it on your Twitter.

Jason Calacanis 9:16 It just happened like an hour ago. I tweeted it, yes, if you could pull it up.

David Friedberg 9:18 So he got, he got eight grams of polyclonal antibodies. This is the Regeneron formulation. So basically, they've isolated the antibodies that neutralize coronavirus that patients have presented in their body, and then they re- use recumbent DNA technology to produce those antibodies synthetically. So it's a bunch of antibody proteins, and then they turn it into an injection, into a formula that they can put in your body, and you now have effectively neutralizing antibodies. So they gave him eight grams, which is a pretty high dose. And it gets, uh, you know, it goes in intravenously. You can have sometimes an allergic reaction to that, but it seems like he was fine from that because they didn't announce an allergic reaction. And then, uh, you know, the, the, the antibodies are now in his bloodstream and they bind to the virus, so any virus that's floating around immediately gets wiped out. It gets eliminated from the body. So theoretically, this is the way we should treat all infectious disease.

Jason Calacanis 10:07 That's my point.

David Friedberg 10:08 And I, and I do think that... By the way, I do thi- and I've written about this. I think that is the future of infectious disease, is we're all gonna get a polyclonal cocktail every year. Instead of getting a flu shot-

Jason Calacanis 10:16 No, but-

David Friedberg 10:16 ... you get a bunch of antibodies to all the new stuff that's emerging, and it wipes everything out.

Jason Calacanis 10:20 But think about this. David, just think about this. There was so much raging debate that got politicized between the left, between the right, between different folks of people who believed in different things around what the right course of care was. There was no single source of truth. I'll just say this again. When you treat the President of the United States and he gets better, that is canonical single source of truth. I'm sorry, but there can be no debate after that, that the smartest people with the access to all of the research... I mean, let's be clear. You don't think a call went out last night before they deployed the nuclear warhead stuff to all of the, um, R&D labs and all the big pharma companies and said, "What do you got?" And the answer came back at the top of the ticket was this Regeneron cocktail?

David Friedberg 11:06 Yeah, they, they had, they definitely had made that call before to prep for this, but yeah.

Jason Calacanis 11:09 Right.

David Friedberg 11:09 Totally agree. Right.

Jason Calacanis 11:10 Now, um, when you say eight gram-

David Friedberg 11:13 But by the way, it, it highlights what the future of infectious disease treatment is and should be, which is that all of us should be getting a booster shot every year of synthetically produced antibodies, uh, that will, uh, counteract any new infectious disease floating around in the world. And we're-

Jason Calacanis 11:30 I-

David Friedberg 11:30 ... getting to the point in the next 10, 15 years that that should be reality for everyone where we, we-

Jason Calacanis 11:34 Well, I think-

David Friedberg 11:35 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 11:35 ... it highlights that, but it also highlights that in the absence of the most powerful man in the world getting the sickness, that we're all gonna basically bitch and point fingers about what the right solution is. And so it can't be the case that the next time there's a crazy illness that's floating around in society, we need to go and target, you know, five or six of the leaders of the G8 plus the Pope plus this, plus that, Beyonce, heaven forbid. You know what I mean? Like, this is crazy. Yeah.

David Friedberg 12:01 This can't, this can't-

Chamath Palihapitiya 12:02 Yeah.

David Friedberg 12:02 ... be how we find single source of truth.

Chamath Palihapitiya 12:04 Yeah. Well, I think i- i- if... I think, politically speaking, I think there's a lot of upside here for Trump if he does get better in a week. I mean, if the, if these polyclonal antibodies work, then... And he emerges from the White House, you know, fit as a fiddle in a week, he's gonna say, "The cure is here." You know, "I was right."

Jason Calacanis 12:20 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 12:20 "You don't even need a vaccine. The cure is here. It's over."... and, um, and all the "I told you so"s might, might flip around very quickly.

Jason Calacanis 12:26 How far off would that be from the truth, David Freeburg? Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 12:29 Well, if the polyclone, polyclone antibodies work, I mean, it then is just a matter of scaling them.

Jason Calacanis 12:34 Can it be scaled, Freeburg?

David Friedberg 12:36 Yes.

Jason Calacanis 12:36 Is this easily scalable?

David Friedberg 12:37 Yes. Um, but, but, by, by the... I'll just point out the challenge with this is a lot of people, uh, north of 15% will have, uh... 'Cause antibodies, remember, they're a protein, and if your cells didn't make that protein, they look like a foreign protein when they show up in your body.

Jason Calacanis 12:54 Mm-hmm.

David Friedberg 12:54 And so very often when you get a, a foreign antibody treatment like this, you will have some sort of allergic reaction, 'cause your body will react and attack that protein. And so it's not as simple as just saying, "Hey, we should just scale this up and give it to everyone." Because the clinical trials that are going on with it are to figure out what percentage of people, what's the right way to treat people, what's the right way to protect them from anaphylactic shock, all that sort of stuff that comes along with this sort of thing. So it's not that simple as I think we're making it out, but-

Jason Calacanis 13:19 But Freeburg, but Freeburg-

David Friedberg 13:20 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 13:20 ... you would admit that many of those questions... The answer... Right, the answers to many of those questions must have been well in hand because there's just zero way-

David Friedberg 13:29 Oh, Regeneron's been running these trials since March, 100%.

Jason Calacanis 13:32 Exactly.

David Friedberg 13:32 Yeah, 100%.

Jason Calacanis 13:33 Exactly.

David Friedberg 13:33 That's right. They... Well, what they... I, I, I can tell you for sure, when Trump got this treatment, I guarantee they gave him Benadryl and they gave him, um, uh, a steroid shot, and they probably gave him a little bit of cortisone, or they had it on the side, uh, because that's kind of like the standard sort of regimen you would use when you get this sort of, um, you know, synthesized or, or, uh, or convalescent plasma type treatment. And, uh, you know, he comes out of this thing on the other end and he's fine. Um, uh, but, uh, but, but that treatment regimen is required. So it's al-... You know, you sit down in an IV booth and you get a fucking IV and you get shots to go along with it. So it's not as simple as just shipping it out to everyone's home and giving them that treatment, you know?

Jason Calacanis 14:10 And only... Am I correct that only 300 or so people have gotten this to date? Is that correct, with the trial?

David Friedberg 14:16 I, I don't, I don't know the answer to that.

Jason Calacanis 14:17 Okay.

David Friedberg 14:17 I, I know that convalescent plasma, which is, call it the poor man's version of this treatment, which is instead of synthesizing the antibodies, you're taking the actual antibodies from other people that have had COVID and recovered, you're isolating those antibodies and you're injecting them in other people's bodies. So that is what convalescent plasma is. It is effectively a soup of all the antibodies from recovered patients. Polyclonal antibodies is the synthesized version of those isolated antibodies, where we use fermentation systems and bioengineered cells to make those antibodies. Then we isolate them and we, and we use them as a, as a product.

Jason Calacanis 14:49 Is there any chance that the President would make a bad decision here because he would get to dictate, um, his treatment as a powerful person, like Steve Jobs did, uh, tragically? Um, I saw a doctor saying this is one of the problems with powerful people is that they actually can, you know, make a bad decision because doctors will let them have too much of a say. And is that possible in this situation, you think?

David Friedberg 15:13 I think the answer is no because they didn't put out a letter saying he got bleach and, and UV light in his veins.

Jason Calacanis 15:17 (laughs)

15:17 (laughs)

David Friedberg 15:17 So I think he's fine. But, um...

Jason Calacanis 15:19 So he didn't go with his own (laughs) treatment protocol.

15:22 And, and also...

15:24 Yeah, go ahead, Chamath.

15:24 No, I was just gonna say, and also (laughs) , you know, it, it eliminated all of the other less nonsensical but equally sort of question mark treatments. And so, you know, I think they went right to the answer, which would only have been really possible if the best docs basically said, "This is what we're doing." And, uh, I think David mentioned this earlier, that it had been decided well in advance.

15:45 Mm-hmm. I think that's a good insight, yeah.

15:46 There's a, there's a protocol that was written down months ago, vetted and re-vetted probably every week or every month as they get... as they got more data. And so the minute it happened, there was nothing to talk about. And I, and I suspect that that it's probably what happened, because there is no way you'd want to be... You know, it's kind of like, uh, being a pilot. Like, you follow a systematic set of rules to deal with the overwhelming majority of boundary conditions. And this seemed like a pretty obvious boundary condition you would have wanted to have a protocol for well in advance. So, you know-

16:17 Okay. So I want to just do one handicapping here. Sax, I'll have you take this one off the bat, because this was the chatter on Twitter, number one. Uh, the first two, I think, are just crazy conspiracy theorists, he got it on purpose or he's lying. Put those aside for a second. You can answer them if you want to. But the third one is, hey, what happens if he's incapacitated and cannot run or, God forbid, he died? Uh, and so if he's on a ventilator, if he cannot leave the hospital, he's in ICU-

Chamath Palihapitiya 16:45 Well, it's not, it's not-

Jason Calacanis 16:46 It's not even a, it's not even a question. It's not even a question.

Chamath Palihapitiya 16:47 ... I mean, it takes over-

Jason Calacanis 16:47 The 25th Amendment deals with that, yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 16:49 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 16:49 So it goes to Pence, and if Pence cannot do it for whatever reason, but he's... I think he's already trusted figure.

16:53 Okay. I was, I was actually gonna

Jason Calacanis 16:55 refer to the election, though. What happens to the election if, in the next three or four weeks, he's in ICU? What happens then?

17:01 Oh, that I don't know.

17:02 Well, that's what I was trying to get Sax, I mean-

Chamath Palihapitiya 17:04 I would assume it's up to, I would assume it's up to the party to, to make a change to his ballot if they wanted to. But I think if he's in the ICU, he stays on the ballot.

Jason Calacanis 17:11 So we would literally have an election with him on a ventilator or him... I mean, if he was unconscious, could he... could people still go vote for him?

Chamath Palihapitiya 17:21 I think these are very...

Jason Calacanis 17:21 This is a possibility.

Chamath Palihapitiya 17:22 I think, I think these are very low probability outcomes. I think the most, I think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the best care, um, he's, you know... I, I'd say it's probably like at least 50% that this is over for him in about a week, um, and it redounds to his political advantage. I think there's probably a 40% chance that, you know, he's got more like a three or four week case, which I think would hurt him because he just wouldn't be able to campaign. And then there's maybe like a 5 or 10% chance-

David Friedberg 17:52 Sax, I, I-

Chamath Palihapitiya 17:52 ... of something more serious.

David Friedberg 17:53 ... I wonder if he's got... If he... Even if he recovers in a week, the odds are pretty high that he'll have, you know, a long tail of fatigue, right? And so if he ch- if he doesn't change his... If he changes his strategy and, and just does things remotely and whatnot and doesn't do rallies anymore, um, you know, uh, and- and he, he doesn't really come out and say he's fatigued, but, but there's this behavioral change. Does that change things, do you think?

Chamath Palihapitiya 18:17 I think he needs to be able to campaign, uh, and hold these rallies. I think that's an essential part of his, uh, election strategy, but also it's always been his way of...... you know, going over the heads of the media that, that hates him and, and talking directly to people and rallying his base, and, uh, field testing his ideas. There was that period when, during lockdowns when he just stopped doing rallies for several months and it really felt like he was adrift. Um, so yeah, I think if he can't do rallies, I think, you know, that could easily swing the election a couple of points and cause him to lose.

Jason Calacanis 18:49 I think Saxypoo's 100% right.

David Friedberg 18:51 I was in Indiana last week and, uh, there were, uh, a bunch of folks in the neighborhood where I was staying and I, I was walking my dog and they were walking their dogs, so we were all kind of walking side by side, and they all were ramping up to go to a Trump rally. They were super excited about this, this moment to go hear what he has to say. They were, they sounded like they were kind of in this undecided camp, but they wanted to go to the rally to hear what he had to say and kind of experience that Trump moment. Um, it was a real kind of ground level, um, I think, um-

Chamath Palihapitiya 19:22 Yeah.

David Friedberg 19:22 ... proof point for your, uh, for your statement around, like, you know, people really need to feel an ex- 'cause that's a big part of his, uh, his kind of MO is that ground level experience.

Chamath Palihapitiya 19:30 It is, and I, and I think it was, it was one of the reasons why his, um, no one saw his election coming in 2016, is if you turned on the TV and just listened to the commentators, I mean, aside from maybe Fox, um, it seemed like everyone just hated him. But if you attended the rallies you would see that he was reaching a lot of people, tens of thousands of people at each event. And he was flying around doing three events a day, uh, tremendously energetic, just, um... So yeah, I think it's, it would hurt him a lot. Um, but look, if he's back on the stump a week from now you're probably gonna see all sorts of people on the right saying, you know, "I told you so," and, "God healed him," and, you know, "He must be the chosen one," or, you know, "Who, who knows?"

David Friedberg 20:11 We, we, we, we could be, uh, we could be seeing a Weekend at Bernie's moment here in the next week on-

Jason Calacanis 20:15 (laughs)

20:16 It kinda went, it got dark.

David Friedberg 20:17 Prop, prop him u- you know, prop, prop him up. I mean-

Jason Calacanis 20:18 It got dark.

David Friedberg 20:19 ... even if he's just tired, they'll prop him up on a big stick and hold him up in front of the crowds and then put him back in the airplane and fly him back home.

Chamath Palihapitiya 20:25 I think we'll know if he's, if he's too tired because, you know, he gets up there and he talks for, like, an hour and a half. I mean, it's like-

Jason Calacanis 20:31 An hour and a half? He's done two or three.

Chamath Palihapitiya 20:32 Yeah, it's like, you know-

Jason Calacanis 20:33 An hour and a half is short for him.

Chamath Palihapitiya 20:34 Yeah. So-

Jason Calacanis 20:36 I- i- i- is it possible we could be talking about Trump having less energy than Biden in a debate, which I think is a good segue here. Are there gonna be two more presidential debates, and what was our take on the absolutely embarrassing shitshow that we saw on Tuesday night, which was supposed-

David Friedberg 20:52 Wow.

Jason Calacanis 20:52 ... to be the topic today that we're gonna lead off, which was the debate, which seems-

David Friedberg 20:56 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 20:56 ... unimportant now?

David Friedberg 20:57 It feels like a year ago. (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 20:59 Yeah, how do you expect us to comment on something that happened so long ago?

Jason Calacanis 21:02 (laughs)

21:02 It was 72 hours ago. I mean, come on, people. (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:06 Oh my God, it feels like- ... years.

Jason Calacanis 21:09 2020 is so exhausting. I think I've aged-

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:11 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 21:11 ... 30 years in one year.

David Friedberg 21:13 Totally.

Jason Calacanis 21:14 It's like three decades.

21:14 It's, uh, it, that, that debate, that debate was just a dumpster fire. Um, you know, the way that I thought about it was-

21:21 Wrong.

21:22 Wrong. Yeah. (laughs)

21:22 Not true. (laughs)

21:24 (laughs)

21:24 I mean, imagine if we-

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:24 No, no, I agree.

Jason Calacanis 21:25 ... really did talk like that about that debate.

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:25 I, I, it was, it was a disaster for Trump. It was a disaster for Trump. Um-

Jason Calacanis 21:28 Go ahead, Sax, explain. 'Cause he's your boy.

David Friedberg 21:31 Well-

Jason Calacanis 21:31 Um, are you now not gonna vote for him after that performance?

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:34 Th- just to, just to clarify for the audience-

Jason Calacanis 21:36 (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:37 ... uh, I'm not, I'm not pro-Trump. I'm just anti-

Jason Calacanis 21:39 (laughs) But you just voted for him.

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:40 I'm anti-hysteria.

Jason Calacanis 21:42 (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:42 I, I always support the side that seems least hysterical to me at any given time. But-

Jason Calacanis 21:46 Did you vote for Trump last election, yes or no? Or would you be comfortable-

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:50 Uh, I think you'd be-

Jason Calacanis 21:50 ... even saying that?

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:51 ... I think you'd be surprised who I told you who I voted for.

Jason Calacanis 21:53 Really?

Chamath Palihapitiya 21:53 But, okay, so onto the debate. Um, I think both Biden and Tra- uh, uh, uh, uh, Biden and Trump both had a trap to avoid. I think Biden's trap was appearing senile. I think Tra- uh, Trump's trap was appearing unhinged. I would say that Biden avoided his trap and Trump did not. Um, by constantly attacking Biden, interrupting him, uh, it was counterproductive. I mean, what you want to do with Biden was let the man talk. He's a gaffe machine. You know, let him talk, let him say things that will get him in trouble. Instead, by constantly interrupting him, Trump kind of let him off the hook. And, um, so it's... Now look, I mean, both of their bases, uh, you know, it's like, it's like a sporting event. They're just gonna root for the side they, they already came to, you know, to support. Uh, but I don't think Trump helped himself with the few percent of independents who are still out there, you know, looking to make a decision.

Jason Calacanis 22:42 I think you're totally right. It was, um, it was really surprising because if he had just left him to his own devices, you would have let it play out. But I thought Biden, to be honest, there were some moments he was fabulous. So I thought he was excellent on race. I thought he was incredible in the moment that he basically stood up to Trump about his son Hunter, and he looks in the camera and he basically says, "Look, I love my son. My son's had troubles and I support..." I mean, amazing. And so like, in those moments, it's so hard to not see that guy as presidential. And I don't... Meaning like it's easy for Democrats or people that are voting for him, like me, but I think if you're a Republican you gotta look at that guy and say, "Man, that is a decent dude."

David Friedberg 23:25 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 23:26 Uh, I think Biden helped himself a lot.

Jason Calacanis 23:26 I, I thought, I thought he had some-

Chamath Palihapitiya 23:27 He helped himself a lot.

Jason Calacanis 23:27 He did, he did, he did, in certain key moments he did fabulously well. And in other moments where there were traps, he actually got billed up because Trump kept interrupting and Joe was smart enough to stop talking so that it amplified the sense that Trump was interrupting him.

23:42 Trump, to me, seemed pathetic and scared. That was my... Like, he's scared of losing. He felt like a bully who had been, like, laughed at by the whole class, like nobody takes him seriously. Like the moderator, what, what's his name, um-

Chamath Palihapitiya 23:55 Chris Wallace.

Jason Calacanis 23:55 Chris Wallace. The moderator was kind of like, "What, what are you doing, sir? Please." Where he... I think Chris Wallace, I mean, I know people are critical of him, but Chris Wallace is like, "Sir, please." Just, uh, trying to appeal to, like, basic decency, and Trump just not getting it made Trump look so bad. It just, I think, confirmed with people say the demographic he has to win is white women in a lot of these swing states. I mean, I don't think women want to vote... I'm not gonna speak for all women here, but my understanding is women don't like guys like that who interrupt constantly and who are belligerent and badgering, and they kind of like a great dad who defended, to your point, Chamath, uh...... you know, his son and said, "Hey, listen, my son's got problems. My other son died. He's a war hero." Yeah.

24:36 I- I- I- I really think, I really think, and I- and I- and y- we talked about this a little bit before, but the surface area in terms of policy between the Republicans and the Democrats now are virtually non-existent. So look, if you unpack foreign policy, they both hate Russia, they both hate China, they both need India, and the Middle East is irrelevant because we're moving to a carbon neutral alternative energy world. They also don't need Russia as an example. So, all of this stuff that used to matter before, in so much of the foreign policy that dictate how Americans would fight wars, spend money, you know, incite democracy, protect certain leaders, it's all out the window, and they both think about it the same way because the surface area is so, uh, similar. That's number one.

25:25 What about, what about the economy? Because it does seem that they're pretty similar too.

25:28 So hold on. So number two, so number two, economically, they're so similar because they both want to spend trillions of dollars, just under a different label. You know, one is sort of under a Green New Deal and the other is called an infrastructure bill or whatever it is. And then number three, they will both have the same Federal Reserve that is tied to the hip of Treasury, who has already committed to be trillions of dollars a year in hawk, backing up all the debt that basically exists. And so, if you put all these things together, it's a popularity contest. And this is why I think Joe Biden has an advantage, because in a popularity contest where you're just picking the figure that you would, you know, either have a beer with or feel the most comfortable with, there's an element of this which is like, he's just a decent human being. It's easier for Biden to get that across than it is for Trump. And when Trump behaves that way, it just violates some simple rules of decency. Like, there were, in the debate against Hillary Clinton, he didn't act this way and he was more, um, uh, he- it was- it was like watching like a- a show, like you were kind of like tuning in to see, um, what the theatrics would be. Or in the debates in the primaries in 2016 against the Republicans, it was theatrical. Here, it was just, it was- it was just kind of not, it was- it was pretty sad.

26:42 Sax, in that way, Sax, do you think the Democrats put up the right candidate? Because if you did put up Elizabeth Warren, if you did put up a Bernie Sanders or God forbid, both of them at the same time-

Chamath Palihapitiya 26:51 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 26:51 ... it would be a very stark contrast. You would have the socialist ticket that wants to, you know, ban the billionaires and stop capitalism and kneecap it, and, uh, spend a bunch of money, uh, on redistribution of wealth.

Chamath Palihapitiya 27:05 Right.

Jason Calacanis 27:05 Mm-hmm.

27:05 And here Biden doesn't, he's never said redistribution of wealth. He's never said, "Ban the billionaires." He's pro capitalism. Feels like a safer bet to the majority of Americans. Did they-

Chamath Palihapitiya 27:14 Right.

Jason Calacanis 27:14 Did the Democrats actually do a good job putting Biden up there?

Chamath Palihapitiya 27:17 I think so. Um, I think he is the most al- n- now that we know he's not senile, I mean, I think there was some real question about that going into the debate. I think he proved in that debate that he's not. Um, and you know, he's always kind of had the decency card that Chamath talks about. Um, now that we know he's not senile, I think he- he's- he is the- the- the Democrats' most selectable candidate because he is more centrist than certainly an Elizabeth Warren or some of the other candidates that you mentioned, um.

Jason Calacanis 27:44 Elizabeth Warren would have moved the- the election to be about substance. And if this-

Chamath Palihapitiya 27:50 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 27:50 ... i- in many ways, strategically-

Chamath Palihapitiya 27:52 Right.

Jason Calacanis 27:52 No, but think about this, if you basically converge on roughly the same strategy with different labels, you make the election one of style. And there are a lot of people who really want decency back in the presidency, more so than they want anything else, because they already come into the election with a level of skepticism that policy, A, won't change that fast, and B, to the extent it changes, doesn't affect them. And so, you know, for years we've been electing people we like, and this is probably the most extreme test of that idea.

David Friedberg 28:25 I think, I think there was like- I mean like if you think about that debate, you could probably simplify it down into the audience being part of three camps. They either know who they're voting for, Trump, they know who they're voting for Biden, and then some folks who are kind of maybe though they're changeable. And for the folks that are changeable, the- the- there's a diversity of objectives, right? There are some folks who care about the decency, some folks who care about policy, but at the end of the day, I think, um, you- you go into this debate with an expectation of Trump and an expectation of Biden. And I would say that Trump was flat to down relative to expectation, and Biden was flat to up. And so, um, that's where I would kind of give the- the- the ticker to-

Jason Calacanis 29:05 I think

David Friedberg 29:05 Whoa.

29:05 ... to Biden.

Jason Calacanis 29:06 S- s- sorry, Jen. Sorry, I don't want to interrupt, but I just want to read you this headline, "President Trump will be admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on Friday-"

David Friedberg 29:14 Oh sh-

Jason Calacanis 29:14 "... uh, for a few days."

David Friedberg 29:15 Yeah, I read that-

29:16 Whoa.

29:16 And it- it- it was his-

Jason Calacanis 29:17 That- well, hold on a second.

David Friedberg 29:18 Well, his-

Jason Calacanis 29:18 That is groundbreaking.

David Friedberg 29:19 Well, well, his doctor said it's because they're, out of an abundance of caution, they just want to have him in the- in a place where he can be treated if and as he needs it. That may be-

Jason Calacanis 29:27 You buy that?

David Friedberg 29:28 ... a cover story. I think that, look, if you're getting-

Jason Calacanis 29:29 I don't buy that. I think he's in trouble.

David Friedberg 29:31 If you're-

Chamath Palihapitiya 29:31 I agree with Jason. That's- that- it is-

David Friedberg 29:33 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 29:33 ... it is very strange.

David Friedberg 29:34 When you get a treatment, when- when you get a treatment like he got today-

Chamath Palihapitiya 29:38 Yeah.

David Friedberg 29:38 ... you know, eight- eight grams of, uh, immunoglobulin therapy like that, it sucks. Uh, I- I've had this treatment, I've had, uh, immunoglobulin therapy before. And you get knocked out, you- you're on all these steroids, you're on all this anti-allergy stuff. You're a mess for a day or two, and you know, you- you want to get like IVs and stuff that, you know, they give you all sorts of stuff to go with it. I got to imagine that after getting that therapy, he's gonna need to be in some degree of care. And I would imagine it's probably better to just do that around doctors and with all the equipment than try and t- you know, kind of bring everything into the White House. So I don't read it as negatively-

Chamath Palihapitiya 30:14 Right.

David Friedberg 30:14 ... but, um-

Chamath Palihapitiya 30:14 Well, I mean, do you- do you think it could be, uh, like an anaphylactic, you know, shock, some-

David Friedberg 30:20 Might be. You might be having some reaction. Yeah, totally. But like I said, a large percentage of people that get these antibody therapies have, um, some sort of allergic response. It's all the way from anaphylactic to, "Hey, I'm having a... My throat's closing. Hey, I feel, yeah, I'm getting flushed. I'm getting a fever." There's all sorts of ways that this can kind of present, so.

Chamath Palihapitiya 30:38 The- the- the world is changing so fast that we can't even complete a podcast without it being obsolete.

David Friedberg 30:43 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 30:43 Can I tell you one other thing? Um, what did you guys think about the fact, this is a little morbid so you can, we can choose not to talk about it, but the stock market basically did nothing today on the news that the most important person in the free world, theoretically, um-

31:00 I think you just answered your own question, uh, Chamath. I can, I can chime in on this one. Is I don't think that people perceive that Trump is good or bad, uh, for the economy either way and that the economy is separated now from politics, because they think Biden or Trump are going to have the same policies, which you said before. They have the same policies. So why does it matter if Trump were to tragically die?

David Friedberg 31:18 Well, it- it-

Jason Calacanis 31:19 It would not make a difference in the American economy. It's not going to affect people buying iPhones. It might shake people psychologically, but I don't think in a massive way because he's almost out of office. So I think it's all baked in.

David Friedberg 31:29 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 31:29 That's why the market did join. What do you think, Sax?

Chamath Palihapitiya 31:31 I want to disagree slightly with the idea this election doesn't matter. Um, I think it will matter a lot if, uh, the Democrats win the Senate as well as the presidency, because then they will have one party control and they can pass much legislation as they want. And I think a lot of things will, will get signed. And I think the Biden presidency could be very consequential, at least for two years, um, while all this legislation is passed, even if, you know, he's not, you know, out in front saying very much. Um, I mean, the significance will be in the, in the pen to sign the legislation. If the Republicans hold on to the Senate, but Biden wins the presidency, I agree with you that it's not going to be a tremendously consequential election because we'll have gridlock and divided government again. And, um, so I think a lot hinges on whether Biden wins with or without the Senate.

Jason Calacanis 32:22 I, I don't disagree with you. The only thing that I will say is that I think that Biden will drag the country, especially if it's, uh, you know, up and down Democratic ticket, back to the 80s and 90s, more to the sort of the George Baker school of diplomacy and governance. And I think that if... And, and I don't know him to know this, but I think that if he really were to have a legacy, I'm sus- I, I would suspect that part of, again, because he's mentioned that, you know, why did he run? He said the pivotal moment was like Charlottesville and Trump's reaction to Charlottesville. I think Biden is really moored by this concept of decency. And I think that if, if he were there and he thought to himself, I'm going to be here for four years because that's the right responsible thing to do, but no more, um, I don't think that you're going to see a bunch of crazy legislation pass. I think Biden's going to say, "Guys, this is what I expect to do." By the way, did you... Because... And I, and I think I would bet on that because of what he said at the beginning of the debate, he's like, uh, "I am the Democratic Party." I don't know if you guys remember that.

David Friedberg 33:26 I do remember that. I do remember that.

Jason Calacanis 33:27 That was incredible. That was so powerful.

33:28 That was a, that was a very Darth Sidious emperor move when he said, "I am the Republic."

33:33 No, no, no. He was... I think he was trying to basically say, like, firewall the far left or the far left, the socialist left and say, "That rhetoric is not what I was elected on. I was elected on my platform. I am the party. This is what I believe. And everybody else will have to toe the line." And by the way, in the end, that's not such a bad thing.

David Friedberg 33:54 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 33:56 It's a man.

Chamath Palihapitiya 33:56 I, I, I agree. I think that that was a really important moment for him, is for him to say, "Look, I'm in charge here," because the Republicans have been making the argument that he's a Trojan horse for all these like far left elements.

Jason Calacanis 34:08 AOC.

34:09 Bernie.

Chamath Palihapitiya 34:09 So it was very, it was very important for him to come forward and say, "No, I'm, I'm the one leading this ticket." Now, that being said, and I think it would be a great thing for the country if Biden brought the Democratic Party back to more of a, you know, Bill Clinton to-

Jason Calacanis 34:24 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 34:24 ... you know, Obama type centrism or center leftism, I guess you could say, as opposed to this sort of like crazy, you know, Marxism or Maoism, whatever you want to call it.

Jason Calacanis 34:36 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 34:37 But I'm, I'm very skeptical that he will, because I think Biden has always positioned himself throughout his career as being at the center of the Democratic Party. And I think he moves as the Democratic Party moves. I agree he's not going to be all the way to the left of the Democratic Party, but those left elements will drag his sort of center to further to the left and will end up with sort of a compromise. And I think at the end of the day, if the Democrats win Congress, he'll sign whatever they, they pass.

Jason Calacanis 35:05 Hmm. I'm, I'm not so sure. I, I really, I really, I'm not so sure.

35:10 The White House is, uh, not that far away. It looks like it's a 30-minute drive from Walter Reed. Sending a helicopter? Is that normal? Because he drove there last time. Would that be indicative of this as an emergency type situation, sending Marine One, as opposed to just driving there for 20 minutes in a motorcade?

David Friedberg 35:32 I think they'd get... Like, they'd be, there'd be a lot of liability if he had an actual medical emergency and they were just like, "Yeah, we're going to send him for a few days out of an abundance of caution." The fact that they said out of an abundance of caution, I think, if there is an emergency, you can't get away with saying that.

Jason Calacanis 35:48 Oh, you can. For sure, they would lie.

David Friedberg 35:50 I don't know. I don't know. It'll come out later, right?

Jason Calacanis 35:51 Are you saying the Trump administration is above lying about situations?

Chamath Palihapitiya 35:55 If, if he's unconscious, they got to swear Pence in.

David Friedberg 35:58 Yeah, there's a lot of reasons why you got to be careful.

Jason Calacanis 36:00 No, I'm not saying he's unconscious. I'm just saying it-

David Friedberg 36:02 It's not even unconsciousness, right?

Jason Calacanis 36:04 Marine One, like... I'm just thinking out loud here. Is sending a helicopter for a 20-minute ride in a motorcade, like, seems a little intense?

David Friedberg 36:11 I mean, I would take a, I would take a helicopter to the 7-Eleven if I had a helicopter.

Jason Calacanis 36:16 (laughs)

David Friedberg 36:16 Fair enough.

Jason Calacanis 36:17 I'm taking a... You're taking a helicopter down to-

36:20 That is something I would say.

36:23 Okay. Uh,

Jason Calacanis 36:25 let's... This is, I think, a good jumping off point to an interesting discussion that blew up on Twitter earlier this week, which is, we can't keep up with all the politics, the, the rhetoric, the vitriol, and this polarization. So, uh, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong wrote a letter saying, "Hey, listen-... "If you, uh, wanna talk about politics, that's fine. Not at my company anymore. We're gonna have a no politics rule, no debating this stuff. And we're going to be ultra, ultra focus... focused," I'm sorry, "at work. Um, and you can check your politics at the door." When you read this, Sax, you've come out in support of Brian Armstrong.

Chamath Palihapitiya 37:04 Mm-hmm.

Jason Calacanis 37:05 Uh, what was your take on his position about "leave your politics at the door when you get to work?" And then we'll go to you, Chamath.

Chamath Palihapitiya 37:12 Right. Well, I think, I, I think what Brian... So I, I did, I did compliment, uh, um, his, his manifesto and I, I think, uh-

Jason Calacanis 37:19 Are you an investor?

Chamath Palihapitiya 37:20 I, I am. I'm a small investor in Coinbase, um, and, uh, and, and I'm friendly with, with Brian. And so I, I, I certainly, you know, like the idea of, of defending him against unfair attacks. But, um, I also genuinely like the manifesto. Um, and I think, you know, his argument kind of boils down to, to three components. I think, number one, that having these debates on every issue, whatever the issue du jour is, pulls the company's focus away from its core mission, which he really emphasized. And, um, you know, that mission, mission is challenging enough in its own right. Um, second, he was saying that... And this is something I've said before as well, which is just that politics is just increasingly divisive in our society. It's just inherently divisive. And therefore, it's c- it's, uh, corrosive to team cohesion. And the more you have of that in your company, the worse it is for, you know, the t- the team. And I think the third thing he, he, he mentioned, which I thought was really interesting is that, the freewheeling debate of, or discussion of politics, you know, like, like that we're having here, but we kind of have our own little safe zone here, it risks, uh, hurt feelings or misunderstandings that can become HR issues, because people can then complain about it being-

Jason Calacanis 38:34 They feel unsafe.

Chamath Palihapitiya 38:35 They feel unsafe and they report it. And so it... That's a further distraction to the corporation.

Jason Calacanis 38:38 I felt unsafe at moments in this podcast, I'll be honest.

Chamath Palihapitiya 38:40 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 38:40 There was a couple of moments I felt unsafe.

Chamath Palihapitiya 38:42 Well, I think one, one, I think one of the reasons why this pod sort of works is because we're all, we're all friends and, uh, we've created a safe space for us to have these conversations. But the workplace is very different. It's not... You know, and I... And, and what I read Brian trying to do is to reimpose a, a true safe space by saying, "Leave your politics at the door." Now I think he's been deliberately misconstrued by, by critics who want to say that, "Well, you have to leave your conscience at the door." You know? That's not true. He's not saying that you can't have your own political views or contribute to, to causes that you like, but you just, you got to do it on your own time. Kind of like Mr. Hand said in Fast Times at Ridgemont High, you know, like, "Do that on your own time." Um, and I... And, and that makes sense to me.

David Friedberg 39:28 I think like s-... I mean, look, I think about this from the point of view of one of the employees working at one of these companies that doesn't want to be a party to the debate. Um, if I'm an engineer at Google or Coinbase, I go into work and I am captive, right? I, I don't have the option of not showing up to work. If I go to a rally, I have the option of saying, "I'm going to go to this rally and walk away because I don't like the speaker." Or, "I'm going to go to the rally because I want to participate in this dialogue or this debate." I can't do that at work. So it's unfair for work, which is a place that I as an employee have to go to every day, to be a forum for people to express themselves on political points that I may or may not agree with, but more importantly, may or may not want to actually be a party to the discussion around. Um, and I think that's the most important thing to note here, is like, it's not about enabling the free speech of the employees that want to debate. It's about the protecting the workspace for the employees that don't want to debate and don't want to be exposed to that. Um, and I... And that's really important.

Jason Calacanis 40:30 As, Chamath, as a person of color who, um, you know, have, I'm sure some shr-... Has some strong feelings about what we've seen in terms of police shootings or maybe in your own personal life experience facing racism, uh, again, as a person of color, what are your thoughts on the workplace? Is it... I- Is it possible for you to leave that at the door? That was the criticism I think I saw from the, you know, people who were supportive of BLM and they said the background here was they were trying to get Brian to explicitly say Black Lives Matter and to, you know, have the company rally behind that. Um, and that he didn't... He, he didn't want to have that be part of the work environment and that he was offering people four to six months severance if they would leave, if they don't like the new rules. So what are your thoughts?

Jason Calacanis 41:19 I think that this whole thing became a quagmire unnecessarily. I think that he showed, um, a lot of naivety, um, and frankly, like, um, you know, a little bit of stupidity really. Um, it was really poorly written, um, and that's why it's been so misunderstood and misconstrued. In my opinion, I think a lot of what he had to say was valid, but when it was so poorly presented and, you know, the, the essay was like eight minutes and it was rambling and the mission was like, you know, 97% down on the... You know and... It's just like... It was a convoluted fucking mess. So if I had to do it again, if I were him or if I was his advisor and he had asked me, you know, to proofread the essay, what I would have said is more of the following, which is, "Our mission, which is, you know, I think to create financial liberty or something," something like that, you guys can find out what it is, "for the whole world, is unbelievably important. We will talk about every issue through the lens of achieving our mission and we will be disciplined about saying which things matter and which things don't." So for example, if somebody says, "Listen, I really believe in spaying and neutering dogs." The right answer shouldn't be, "Hey, shut the fuck up." It says, "Okay, um, how does that allow us to maximize our users... How does that allow us to achieve our mission? Why does it allow us to achieve our mission?" And if you ask the question, why-... four or five times. In a very first principles way, you'll get to the answer. So I would have rather said, "We are going to train people how to understand what builds up to our mission and what is otherwise something that you should leave at home." And in that context, there are a lot of things actually that are political that need to be brought, especially into a company like Coinbase, which is working in crypto, which is all about eliminating the financial barriers of people that don't have access to it. Like, you are trying to dismantle an extremely exclusionary part of the economy. And so there are potentially many movements that matter, and those movements in countries in which you will want to gain users may look like political movements. That's-

43:38 Well, and that was Jack Dorsey's point. He, uh, came out-

43:41 So I just think, yeah, so I just think it was a, it was a, it was kind of a too superfi- it was very Silicon Valley-esque reaction. It was emotional. Um, it was a little insecure. And it, it, to me, it missed the mark because there was a lot of validity in what he was saying, but presented in an, kind of in a lens of, you know, Silicon Valley bullshit, and it was not well thought through. So if he had rewritten it and he had said 99% of what he said, but through the lens of why we're going to think about a first principles way of defining how everything ladders into the mission, he will train his employees. Instead, what he created was a schism and a decision point, and I'm not sure that that's how you maximize value in 2020 as a CEO because at the end of the day, you have to deal with an entire population cohort that is, that are in their 20s, early 30s, teenagers that will eventually want to work for you. And whether we like it or not, they're different. And one of the things you need to do if you're going to run an enormous company is understand the psychology of your employees, understand the psychology of how movements and decisions are organized, and then play to win. And it's no different than anybody else. If you want to be in the job, you know, to be the starting point guard for the Warriors, you got to know how to fucking pass the ball. And if you're going to be the power forward, you have to know how to do a certain set of things that are different than that. And so I would sort of have framed it there because I think there was a lot of goodness in what he said, but presented in a pretty shitty manner.

45:14 I think it's good he brought up the topic. I do think there's a tactical issue here, and he, he could have laid out the ground rules for, I think to your point Chamath, of how we should talk about, uh, politics at work and what are the ground rules. I think the number one issue here, which people don't talk about, is that Slack and email and forums inside of companies have created a massive distraction. And when somebody goes into the random channel, which is built into Slack, and I know this is in the weeds, but I have seen this happen at multiple companies now. Slack infects a company, somebody creates a room about a topic, whether it's Trump or police violence or immigration, whatever it is, and then people want to sound off on that. And now you've got an electronic forum where people are talking about highly charged issues that makes people feel unsafe. And so what I told my companies was, um, the two companies I run, "You could talk about politics. If you want to go for a walk with somebody and have coffee or lunch and you want to have a two-hour discussion about it, go for it. Please do not put this in electronic form because it's a massive distraction, uh, and there'll be a record that could create downstream human resources issues to your reports back."

46:25 I, I have a suggestion. And this is an organizational design experiment, and maybe somebody listening will implement at their company. Allow 100% freeform debate about anything. One condition, you literally need to have a soapbox and like in the 1880s Hyde Park in London-

46:43 Yup.

46:43 ... you put the soapbox someplace in a safe space where you can go and you can talk, and people who want to listen will listen, and people who need to work can work, and people who don't want to listen don't have to be forced to listen. That's the point, the point.

David Friedberg 46:54 What's the, what's the, what's the digital version of that, that you're suggesting?

Jason Calacanis 46:58 No, I'm saying a literal room in the campus.

47:00 A literal, no, a literal place in your office. You put the soap-

David Friedberg 47:03 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 47:03 You have a soapbox, you grab it, you put it on the ground, you stand on it, and you say it. And if you're not willing to do that, then, you know, it's okay, because-

David Friedberg 47:11 Are you saying that there's no digital version of that? Because people could-

Jason Calacanis 47:15 I'm, what I'm saying is that, two things. One is the digital version is actually training people to ask why. Why does it matter? Now, the reason why it's important to ask that is because somebody may say, I'll use Jason's example that he loves, "We need to support the Uighurs in China. The best way to do that is to proliferate our software in the following way, because it will free them from enslavement of the Chinese and it will give them access to financial independence." Wow. I mean, okay, that seems to be paying off the mission. So if you were, if, so you got to l- give freedom for people to come up with these ideas, because it may, the first version of this idea may, may not actually be what the final version is, and the final version may be the killer feature. So I, on, on the digital forum, in the Slacks, it should be why? Respect-

Chamath Palihapitiya 48:06 Yeah, no.

Jason Calacanis 48:06 That's a very respectful question, why?

Chamath Palihapitiya 48:08 It was-

Jason Calacanis 48:08 But David, it shouldn't, it should not be in any digital forum because it leads to chaos because we see that on Twitter. And what's happening is the Twitter derangement that we all suffer from is now infected inside-

Chamath Palihapitiya 48:17 Totally.

Jason Calacanis 48:18 ... the immu- the communication system that runs the operating system of the company.

Chamath Palihapitiya 48:21 Exactly, exactly.

Jason Calacanis 48:21 Go ahead, Sax.

Chamath Palihapitiya 48:22 Yeah, that, that's exactly right. So-

Jason Calacanis 48:22 Since you agree with me, go ahead, Sax. (laughs)

David Friedberg 48:24 (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 48:24 Yes, I do, I do agree with J Cal on this one. So, so look, I mean, Ch- Chamath is right that I'm sure, I- I'm sure Chamath would have written a better letter, but I think we understand the gist of what Brian was trying to say. And actually, I thought it took a lot of courage t- to write it. And what he's basically saying is that politics has become so divisive in our society that there, I mean, it'd be nice if we could have these reasonable debates the way that we're having this discussion inside companies. We didn't have to have these artificial restrictions, but we do. We have to, you know, it's the same reason...... well, you know, that we have the separation of church and state is because people couldn't stop killing each other f- over religious wars. And so finally we had, you know, the Treaty of Westphalia to stop it. And what Brian's basically proposing is a, is a treaty for the workplace because we cannot get along ar- around politics.

Jason Calacanis 49:10 But David, he is the CEO of an $8 billion company. Could he not have hired somebody to edit that essay?

49:16 (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:16 Okay. Well, I mean, look, I, I just... To, to me, like the-

Jason Calacanis 49:18 No, but I'm serious. Like, if it's meaning, if it's seriously well thought through and it-

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:22 Mm-hmm.

Jason Calacanis 49:22 ... and if it was as important as Westphalia, you would probably-

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:26 (laughs) .

Jason Calacanis 49:26 ... have a couple proofreaders then.

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:27 Corporate, corporate version. Okay? It's not-

Jason Calacanis 49:29 It could-

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:29 ... it's not historically

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:30 done corporate.

Jason Calacanis 49:30 ... could ha- it could have been polished for sure.

Chamath Palihapitiya 49:31 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 49:31 Here is Jack Dorsey's response and I'll have you guys respond to it. I think it's in your wheelhouse in terms of what you said, Chamath. "Bitcoin, AKA crypto, is direct activism against an unverifiable and exclusionary financial system which negatively affects so much of our society. Important to at least acknowledge and connect the related societal issues your customers face daily. This leaves people behind." I, I, I think he's right. You have to view this problem not through the lens of your own emotions, not even through the lens of the frustrations of your employees. You have to help shift the discussion to say, "Why does this achieve our mission?" And just constantly in a thoughtful, respectful way, ask why and by the fourth or fifth why, it will either be something that doesn't matter and you can dismiss it quickly, or something that actually is rooted in fact, and probably is something you need to pay attention to. And maybe the way that the conversation started was probably not with the right language that people given the chance would've framed it differently.

50:31 Okay. The worst take, uh, according to the internet's, uh, Twitter's ability to ratio people, which is when you get more comments than likes, um, which is not normally how it works. People are actually taking the time to explain to you how bad your take was as opposed to liking it, is what a ratio is, if you don't know. Um, goes to Dick Costolo, um, who's a friend of ours.

Chamath Palihapitiya 50:53 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 50:53 Uh, "Me first capitalists-

Chamath Palihapitiya 50:55 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 50:55 (laughs)

50:55 ... who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution." I'll be ha- I mean, and that's enou- that's enough to get you ratioed and have this thing go supernova.

Chamath Palihapitiya 51:10 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 51:10 I mean, Mike Cernovich is retweeting this and losing-

Chamath Palihapitiya 51:13 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 51:13 ... like, his mind over it, you know, that the former CEO of Twitter is ex- inciting violence. He's a comedian as well, um, De Costolo, so I think he's joking here. And, but he adds the punk- the exclamation point, "I'll happily provide video commentary." Saks-

Chamath Palihapitiya 51:29 Y- y- h- h- here, here's m- here's, here's my, uh, disagreement with, with Dick and, and, and with Jack, is ultimately, the societal value of a company doesn't come from whatever platitudes or political statements its, its CEO makes, but rather from the quality of its products and the impact of its products. And in that sense, Dick and Jack are living in a glass house. I mean, Twitter is a sewer of political diatribe and polemical hate. You know, it's... I don't know anyone who feels better, uh, you know, after spending time on Twitter. You know, if, if Facebook is like cigarettes, you know, I, I don't know what Twitter is. I mean, it's like-

Jason Calacanis 52:08 Fentanyl?

Chamath Palihapitiya 52:08 ... fentanyl or something. Yeah. So, so, so ultimately, you know, maybe Jack should spend his time figuring out how to make Twitter into a less socially divisive product instead of... you know, 'cause just issuing woke platitudes is not gonna do it.

Jason Calacanis 52:24 I agree with the, I agree with that. I don't think platitudes does it. All, all I'm saying is, you have to view it through the lens of, "I want to become the most relevant company possible and achieve the most impact." And I think that there are a lot of times where some of these issues, when presented politically, underlying it is actually some feature or some capability or some way of seeing the problem that unlocks more demand that can help you win. And not knowing a priori what the answers to those questions are, it's important to train people on a framework versus say, "You can't talk." Because I guarantee you what will happen is somebody with some killer feature will be too scared to say something because they're not sure how to say it well. And you and I both know, 'cause we've seen many companies that have gone through that cycle, those companies decay and die.

Chamath Palihapitiya 53:13 Yeah. I think it'd be great if, uh, a policy like this wasn't necessary. I mean, it's... I, I agree, it's suboptimal, but I think that it's, it's caused by the fact that people just can't get along around politics anymore.

Jason Calacanis 53:24 Yeah. Friedberg, what is your take on ultimately how Coinbase winds up the year or two after this? Do they get more resumes of hyper-talented people who want to embrace a politics social issue free workplace? Or do millennials and, you know, gen C and this next group of talented folks say, "I don't wanna work for somebody who doesn't want to talk about these issues at work"? And then at the production board where you have a factory where you build, uh, companies, do you have some rule around this yourself, or thoughts about how you run your companies? I think the more clearly you define culture, the more successful your company will be. And right or wrong about whether or not you enable the debate and the discussion and how you define the forums for kind of political discussion within your company, the fact that there is a clear definition and delineation around this point, I think removes the uncertainty. And I think he'll do exactly what he's hoping to do, which is to get people to leave and to attract other people that, that better fit with that cultural model. "I want to put my game face on. I want to go to work and I wanna win the game I'm here to play. I'm not here to fuck around. I'm not here to do other stuff. I want this job because I believe in this mission, and I want this company to succeed in what it's trying to do." And I think other places that allow people to run around and, you know, do things that they may or may not appreciate other people doing, or-

David Friedberg 54:55 ... and you have this kind of low definition kind of culture where some people are happy, some people are unhappy. It all kind of, you know, slows things down and, and, um, and I wouldn't kind of encourage anyone to, um, uh, to let that happen. I think it's really important to just define how it is you want to operate, be really clear about the rules and the boundaries, and then, um, let the process go over.

Jason Calacanis 55:17 That I, that I, that I agree with as well. I mean, I think it's very much within his right, and I think it took... I do applaud his courage in doing it. I just think that it misses the mark because I think it was too emotional.

55:27 I think he could do a 2.0 version and just keep building on the manifesto and say, "Hey, based on the feedback I got, here's how we're gonna do it." No discussion, he, uh, on the electronic communications-

David Friedberg 55:37 I mean, look at what, look at what, look, Reed, Reed Hastings put out that fantastic, uh, PowerPoint that I think we all know really well, The Cultural Playbook from Netflix. And he, when did he put that out, like two thousand-

Jason Calacanis 55:47 Almost a decade ago? No, two decades ago. It was 2000, 2001.

David Friedberg 55:51 And, and he's continued to refine it, right? If you look at those recent iterations of it and they continue to kind of do a better job of defining, um, you know, uh, how, how do they intend to operate, uh, with people. Um, and I think it's, uh, it's only continued to reinforce the innovation that, that drives that company into the $100 billion plus valuation it's, it's earned.

Jason Calacanis 56:11 Yes. And if you, if there's one important thing, which is that there's a meaningful difference in the average age of a Netflix employee and the average age of a Silicon Valley company. Now, that may be also part of it as well.

Chamath Palihapitiya 56:24 I, I, I think the one thing that Brian could clarify is that you don't have to check your conscience at the door. You... It, it's not... We're, we're not saying that you can't have political views. You're allowed to say things on Twitter or take political stands or donate to whoever you want. It's just that the company itself is gonna be a demilitarized zone. You know, we're not gonna bring-

Jason Calacanis 56:43 Fair.

Chamath Palihapitiya 56:43 We're not gonna bring these contentious, divisive debates that really aren't related to our core mission inside the company-

Jason Calacanis 56:50 Totally fair.

Chamath Palihapitiya 56:50 ... so we can all work better, so we can all work better as a team towards the reason that we all joined this company.

Jason Calacanis 56:55 But that's totally fair. But, you know, all I'm saying, all I'm saying... Again, I'll just say it again. That is such an important thing to say. You coulda had it proofread a couple times. You didn't need to. (laughs)

57:05 It coulda, coulda been, coulda come across the way you're saying it.

57:07 It didn't have to be written by GPT-3. You know what I mean?

Chamath Palihapitiya 57:10 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 57:11 (laughs)

57:11 GPT-3.

57:11 But also, I think that it was a, the, the dunk he did afterwards where he's like, "And, by the way, if you don't like it, here's four months severance. Get the fuck out." That was a pretty, uh, aggressive move as well.

David Friedberg 57:25 I like it.

Jason Calacanis 57:25 I don't know how you guys feel.

David Friedberg 57:26 I think, I think, I think, I think-

Jason Calacanis 57:27 I, I kind of like the gangster nature of it.

57:28 That's great. I like it.

57:29 Yeah.

David Friedberg 57:29 I think it's, I think it's great.

Jason Calacanis 57:30 Yeah, I like it too.

David Friedberg 57:30 It's like, if I'm on the team and I believe in what he just said, I feel great that he's flushing this shit out. And if I don't agree with it, it's like, "Fuck yeah, I'll take it." You know, like, it's, it's really clear.

Chamath Palihapitiya 57:39 Right.

David Friedberg 57:39 And I think the, the-

Jason Calacanis 57:40 100%.

David Friedberg 57:40 ... clear-cut definition of culture is what every company needs to kind of pursue, and it's an ongoing pursuit and you can always do a better job with it. And I think, uh-

Jason Calacanis 57:47 And culture is what you choose not to do as much as it is what you do, right?

57:51 I agree, yeah.

57:51 You're not gonna talk about politics.

57:52 I think Friedberg is totally right. It takes a lot of courage-

Chamath Palihapitiya 57:54 Right.

Jason Calacanis 57:54 ... to say, "Here's what I believe, and if you don't, if you don't believe in it, then it's okay for you to leave, and here's a severance package." That takes a lot of courage. So I applaud him for that.

Chamath Palihapitiya 58:04 Yeah. I mean, look, it, it, it's a free country and we all have limited time. We should all go work on the mission that is most important and inspiring to us. And Coinbase has a very specific mission that Brian's defining, and he's trying to define it clearly. And if that mission is important and inspiring to you, then go work there. And if it's not, then go work at the place that, you know, where, where that, you know, where, where the mission does inspire you. And it may be a startup or maybe, you know, a political organization. Whatever it is, go, go do that thing that's most meaningful to you. That's kind of my interpretation of what he was saying.

Jason Calacanis 58:36 All right, as we wrap here, uh-

58:38 It was hard for me to interpret because it was so poorly written. (laughs)

Chamath Palihapitiya 58:41 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 58:41 Well, also, there were... I mean, it was also like a huge bomb on Twitter, and people's reaction to it was based upon, I think, how they feel at this moment in time. And a lot of people feel-

58:50 This is why... I'm sorry, but communications is important. How you say things, what you say.

58:56 Yeah.

58:56 Style is really important.

58:59 Yeah, whether it's Biden or Brian.

59:01 So take the time, take the time, get it right.

59:03 Yeah.

Jason Calacanis 59:04 All right, so 2021 is gonna be upon us before we know it. And I wanted to wrap here with each of your feelings on, uh, the economy, uh, technology and politics, economy, technology, politics. How do you feel, uh, about 2021? Are you optimistic, pessimistic, neutral on those? Economy, politics, technology-

David Friedberg 59:27 Have you guys ever been to Magic Mountain or Disneyland?

Jason Calacanis 59:31 Of course.

David Friedberg 59:32 You ever get, you get in one of those log rides, and it's like Raging Rapids or Roaring Waters or whatever they're called.

Jason Calacanis 59:38 Sure.

David Friedberg 59:38 And it's just fucking, like, you hop in and this thing just-

Jason Calacanis 59:40 (laughs)

David Friedberg 59:40 ... takes off down the river.

Jason Calacanis 59:41 (laughs)

David Friedberg 59:42 I mean, I don't know, nothing summarizes it up better for me. But in so many ways is that where I feel we are right now. We've all jumped on a bunch of fucking logs and we're shooting down this rapid river. Um, and I think a big part of what I'm feeling, and Chamath is in the middle of this, but there's this extraordinary velocity of capital right now. And, um, when, when I say that, I just mean capital is moving in large amounts very freely, and that creates, like, once in a generation kind of opportunity. It's in part because the Fed has dropped interest rates to zero, so there's all, there's trillions of dollars moving markets, there's a change in an outlook, and the world is being shifted in, in so many ways. This is this really amazing moment that I think we can all be afraid of 'cause we're on a fucking roaring rapid on a log trying to stay afloat. But, um, there is so much happening, uh, in, in, in these markets that we kind of operate in. There's never been a better time to get your business funded or to take your company public or to get customers to make quick decisions and change their behavior, whether they're a consumer or an enterprise customer. Money and decisions are happening at a... Money is moving at a faster pace than we've ever seen, and decisions are happening at a faster pace than we've ever seen. Um, that's my general sentiment. I don't think it stops going into 2021. There's just another kind of floodgate about to open with this election one way or the other.Um, but the- these... We- we're in the middle of this kind of raging rapids right now, and it's, uh- it's a- it's a pretty, um... It's a pretty scary but also kind of exciting kind of time. Um-

Jason Calacanis 1:01:11 It's so- it's so well said, Kienwell. I really agree with you. I- I think that it's kind of, like, if you used to take, um, a second to make a $1 decision and a minute to take a $100 decision, the amount of money being flooded into the economy now allows you to, uh, make a $100 decision in a second, right? So, like, the order of magnitude of the mental barrier that it takes, um, has changed. And, uh, I agree with you. I was thinking earlier this week that, um, it's a really incredible time to be alive for one very- in one very specific way, which is obviously there is stuff that's happening that's really turbulent. But there is a chance that a bunch of us can really, um, like, change things in a meaningful way. And, um, and I find it exciting. So I'm generally... Like, I'm super bullish, uh, on the economy. I'm super bullish on tech. Um, and I think I'm actually kind of, like, reasonably optimistic about politics. I think that we're gonna find our civility soon. Um, and, uh- and I don't know why that's going to happen or how it's going to get triggered, um, but I think, honestly, like, the election of Biden, um, will go such a long way to just, um, you know, just showing what is rewarded and then to- to figure out how to reward the folks that were supporting Trump in the first place for purposes of economic, um, you know, pushback.

1:02:51 Could be a nice deescalation, in fact, a- and maybe an olive branch if Biden can bring that Republican Party into the conversation.

1:02:58 Yeah, and Sacks- Sacks had this really beautiful thing that he posted on Twitter, which was like, you know, a- a lot of San Francisco's dysfunction is really going to spread well throughout the rest of the country, because a lot of cities that were shut out of all these tech gains will now see it. And now you can imagine, uh, all kinds of people. There's a guy that I, you know, follow on Twitter. He- he- he lives in Bowie, Maryland. He's an engineer at VMware, um, this Black guy, and he was just talking about how he got promoted, and he's now a principal engineer. And, you know, and I just thought like, "This is really fucking cool." Like, there's gonna be all this redistribution of opportunity all around the country, um, and that'll happen because of coronavirus, because of people's frustration with California, because, you know, of a handful of us, how fed up we've gotten with the culture of Silicon Valley, including, by the way, Bri- what Brian Armstrong wrote, which was- which, again, still very important. Um, and so we'll all be better off for that. So I don't know, I'm pretty optimistic.

1:04:00 Sacks, tech economy, politics 2021.

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:04:05 Well, I- I'm- I'm super bullish about, you know, how... About the entrepreneurial energy in the American economy. Um, it's- it's- it's a hundred times greater than when we started out our careers in this business, you know, 20 years ago in terms of the number of companies that get funded, the ideas, the tools that are available, the funding. I mean, when you think about it, this might be the first time in human history where money is chasing the- like, throwing money at the ideas. I mean, throughout history until, I'd say, the last 10, 20 years ago, you know, the people who had no money but had great ideas ha- always had to go hat in hand to go find the capital. And now it's com- it's completely the other way around. There's so many VCs, and they're all racing around trying to find the people with ideas and, um, so-

Jason Calacanis 1:04:52 It was worse than that, Sacks. They had to go give their ideas to a big company-

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:04:56 Totally.

Jason Calacanis 1:04:56 ... and take a salary.

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:04:57 Right. Like so, Tesla, you know, Nikola Tesla, the- the original inventor, didn't profit at all from his ideas, you know?

Jason Calacanis 1:05:03 Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:05:03 Um, and so that was pretty common and, um... And so just this- just how entrepreneurial the US economy has become, I'm very... The new economy has completely taken over, and I'm bullish on that. I think the- the, you know, the- the tweet that Chamath was referencing i- you know, I said that San Francisco's loss is gonna be America's gain, the rest of America's gain, because Middle America was really left out of the new economy. It's just not where it was taking place. And so, you know, globalization really gutted industrial America, agricultural America. They didn't get to participate in the enormous wealth creation over the last two or three decades. And I think, you know, un- I guess, you know, because of what San Francisco has done in terms of driving out companies, I think the- the companies are gonna be... You know, tech companies are gonna be all over the US now.

Jason Calacanis 1:05:49 Yeah, totally. It's so- it's fucking awesome.

1:05:53 Should be, uh, super interesting. Uh, and so, uh, let's just lay the odds as we wrap here on Biden winning. Biden...

1:06:03 65-35, approaching 70-30.

1:06:06 Okay. Da- Davids, you got a- you got a handicap for me on Biden winning? What do you think, Sacks?

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:06:17 Well, I mean, the- the- the betting line is- is like somewhere in the 60 to 70% range, and so you'd have to say that the- the betting markets are probably, you know, pretty accurate. I guess, you know, pro- probably there is a 70% chance of him winning. If I had to bet on that line, I'd probably take the 30% underdog, 'cause I think... You know, there's- there's alway- things are so- in so much turmoil right now that anything could still happen.

Jason Calacanis 1:06:40 So you think there's a chance that Trump could win?

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:06:43 Yeah, and it's probably bigger than 30%. You know, it's probably bigger. Slightly bigger than what the betting markets are giving him credit for.

Jason Calacanis 1:06:48 Friedberg, what are your thoughts?

David Friedberg 1:06:49 Probably right, yeah. I don't have anything to add to that.

Jason Calacanis 1:06:52 All right. Uh, any speculation that we want to end with, Chamath, uh-

David Friedberg 1:06:57 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 1:06:57 ... on the, uh... I just noticed that Emil from-

1:07:00 No.

1:07:00 ... uh, Uber is doing a SPAC. Mark Pincus is doing a SPAC. Everybody is doing SPACs now. Any speculation on, uh, what we're gonna see in that market?

1:07:09 Hm, nope. God bless them. And-

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:07:11 (laughs)

Jason Calacanis 1:07:12 ... I love you all, besties. Again-

1:07:14 All right, besties.

1:07:15 Back to the grind.

David Friedberg 1:07:16 Bye, guys.

Jason Calacanis 1:07:16 Back to the grind.

Chamath Palihapitiya 1:07:17 Bye, guys. Love you guys.

Jason Calacanis 1:07:17 And we'll see you next time.

David Friedberg 1:07:18 Love you guys.

Jason Calacanis 1:07:18 You know what to do. Share this podcast with your friends. If you'd like to advertise on the all-in podcast, you can't.

1:07:24 (laughs)

1:07:24 Um, and so, uh, if- the best you can do is write a review or clip it and, uh, uh, we'll see you all next time on the all-in podcast. Bye-bye.