All-In PodcastE9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
140 min read · 28,488 words- 0:00 – 9:06
The besties reflect on Trump testing positive for COVID-19: treatment, impact on society & the election
- JCJason Calacanis
Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another All-In Podcast. We just got the show notes, and I'm ripping them up because the President has the 'Rona.
- DSDavid Sacks
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
We knew this was a possibility. We had an incredible docket brewing, but as fate loves irony, we found out on Wednesday night, I believe, just in a brief timeline here, Wednesday night, uh, Hope Hicks, his personal assistant, uh, got the 'Rona. And then, of course, um, President Trump announced late last night that he, in fact, had the 'Rona and that his, uh, wife, Melania, also had the coronavirus. So with us today to discuss all things tech, politics, and coronavirus, David Friedberg, David Sacks, and bestie si Chamath Palihapitiya are with us. Uh, I guess, maybe we'll just drop it right to you, Friedberg. You, you are our, um, science kid here in the class. Uh, what is... When we look at the President's, um, physique-
- DSDavid Sacks
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
... he's clinically obese-
- DFDavid Friedberg
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
... technically. I'm not saying that to be cruel, but he's a 74-year-old who's clinically obese and snorts Adderall.
- DSDavid Sacks
(coughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
Uh, we don't know that. That's just a claim. Um, but seriously, what, what is the prognosis here? And then, uh, I, my... I understand he's now got a experimental treatment, was just announced an hour ago, uh, at the taping of this on Friday afternoon.
- DFDavid Friedberg
I think, I, I-
- JCJason Calacanis
And, of course, we wish them all the greatest speedy recovery, et cetera, but let, let's get r- let's get into the facts here.
- DFDavid Friedberg
I think the o- the overall mortality rate for, um, someone of his age is in, call it, the 2 to 4% range, right? And for someone with, with... You know, he's not known to have diabetes or high blood pressure. But generally, you could kind of say there's some risk factors maybe associated. Um, so a couple points. But the reality is the treatment that he got is one that's not available to the public and is effectively like creating these, uh, you know, uh, taking these antibodies to the coronavirus. And he got, uh, eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy, um, that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll, uh, eliminate the virus. And they're not, um, widely available. They're not publicly available, these treatments. But, uh, you know, uh, based on the early trials and the general experience with using synthetic and, you know, polyclonal antibodies for, uh, infectious, uh, disease like this, it's pretty effective. And he should kind of, uh, (slaps hand) you know, recover pretty quickly, I would imagine. So he's getting-
- JCJason Calacanis
So him, him dying would basically be a two outer. Him getting this special treatment makes it a, a one outer, if we were talking about this in poker terms. Uh, Chamath, when you, when you look at this turn of events and you saw the news, what was your first thought?
- DSDavid Sacks
Um, that it's now basically 100% guaranteed that we will have all of the most transparent data about coronavirus, um, soon. So for example, you know, we, we've been in this position where we've been debating hydroxychloroquine, we've been debating these, um, you know, all of these different, uh, regimens. Um, and the reality is the President of the United States, if he doesn't get the absolute top-notch care, um, we're all in some ways fucked. So it's, it's probably likely that he's going to get the thing that folks know to work, and then it'll be hard for everybody else to not wanna ask for that. And then it's going to be even harder for everybody to then not get some version of it. And so I think probably we're gonna deescalate a little bit of mask stuff, of testing stuff, of, you know, what the right course of care is. And, you know, frankly, I'll be honest with you, I hope... You know, I, I wouldn't vote for him, but I hope he's well. Um, I don't want anything to happen to the guy. Um, and I hope that he recovers and it... you know, he kicks it in the ass and that, um, whatever he took to get better, everybody else can get it too.
- JCJason Calacanis
All right, Sacks, coming around the horn here, talking about the political ramifications of this. You were feeling that, uh, Trump was likely to lose, uh, but here we are with the October surprise. And I hate to make this, uh, handicapping of the election, but this certainly is gonna have some impact. So with your Rain Man mind, and when you go through this deck of cards here, what does your brain, how do you assess this as, uh, the Rain Man? Is this an... going to be a net positive for his election, um, results? A negative, neutral? Wh- what... Handicap this for us in your mind. You must be thinking through this. And I, and I, and I... Again, disclaimers, we all want him to get better. Nobody wishes him ill. I'm sure some people do, but nobody wishes him ill.
- DSDavid Sacks
Well, I'm seeing, I'm seeing, I'm seeing a lot of, uh, glee, frankly, on, on Twitter.
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- DSDavid Sacks
Uh, a lot of people saying, "I told you so," or, "Karma's a bitch," or something like that.
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- DSDavid Sacks
Um, th- uh, you know, sort of implying that Trump getting this was, was a moral failing, you know? Um, and, uh, so, you know, ce- certainly a lot of people are kind of reveling in it. Um, I think the-
- JCJason Calacanis
Well, he was certainly careless. I mean, he didn't wear masks. He said he didn't like to wear masks, so...
- DSDavid Sacks
Well, I mean, do you, do-
- JCJason Calacanis
I mean, he was careless.
- DSDavid Sacks
... you wear a mask inside your house?
- JCJason Calacanis
No, but if I was in... walking around at a, a debate or something like that, and if I was on an airplane with 20 people, yeah, I would wear a mask, actually.
- DSDavid Sacks
Right. I mean, you know, there were certainly a lot of precautions around the President. I mean, more than most people. I mean, any of us could get it from anybody-
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- DSDavid Sacks
... you know? Um, if, you know, our wife happens to go out to meet a friend for lunch or something like that and then brings it back. So there's almost no amount of carefulness you can do to completely avoid this, um-
- JCJason Calacanis
Mm-hmm.
- DSDavid Sacks
... unless you're willing to kind of lock yourself alone somewhere.
- 9:06 – 16:55
What treatment is Trump receiving & is it scalable to everyone? Is this the future of disease mitigation?
- JCJason Calacanis
we should be wishing for.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Jamal, did you see, did you see the letter they published on what he's getting? So they-
- JCJason Calacanis
I did, but... Go ahead and read it. Go ahead and read the free press part.
- DFDavid Friedberg
The doc- the doctor published, it was not too long ago, right, Jason? I saw it on your Twitter.
- JCJason Calacanis
It just happened like an hour ago. I tweeted it, yes, if you could pull it up.
- DFDavid Friedberg
So he got, he got eight grams of polyclonal antibodies. This is the Regeneron formulation. So basically, they've isolated the antibodies that neutralize coronavirus that patients have presented in their body, and then they re- use recumbent DNA technology to produce those antibodies synthetically. So it's a bunch of antibody proteins, and then they turn it into an injection, into a formula that they can put in your body, and you now have effectively neutralizing antibodies. So they gave him eight grams, which is a pretty high dose. And it gets, uh, you know, it goes in intravenously. You can have sometimes an allergic reaction to that, but it seems like he was fine from that because they didn't announce an allergic reaction. And then, uh, you know, the, the, the antibodies are now in his bloodstream and they bind to the virus, so any virus that's floating around immediately gets wiped out. It gets eliminated from the body. So theoretically, this is the way we should treat all infectious disease.
- JCJason Calacanis
That's my point.
- DFDavid Friedberg
And I, and I do think that... By the way, I do thi- and I've written about this. I think that is the future of infectious disease, is we're all gonna get a polyclonal cocktail every year. Instead of getting a flu shot-
- JCJason Calacanis
No, but-
- DFDavid Friedberg
... you get a bunch of antibodies to all the new stuff that's emerging, and it wipes everything out.
- JCJason Calacanis
But think about this. David, just think about this. There was so much raging debate that got politicized between the left, between the right, between different folks of people who believed in different things around what the right course of care was. There was no single source of truth. I'll just say this again. When you treat the President of the United States and he gets better, that is canonical single source of truth. I'm sorry, but there can be no debate after that, that the smartest people with the access to all of the research... I mean, let's be clear. You don't think a call went out last night before they deployed the nuclear warhead stuff to all of the, um, R&D labs and all the big pharma companies and said, "What do you got?" And the answer came back at the top of the ticket was this Regeneron cocktail?
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah, they, they had, they definitely had made that call before to prep for this, but yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
Right.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Totally agree. Right.
- JCJason Calacanis
Now, um, when you say eight gram-
- DFDavid Friedberg
But by the way, it, it highlights what the future of infectious disease treatment is and should be, which is that all of us should be getting a booster shot every year of synthetically produced antibodies, uh, that will, uh, counteract any new infectious disease floating around in the world. And we're-
- JCJason Calacanis
I-
- DFDavid Friedberg
... getting to the point in the next 10, 15 years that that should be reality for everyone where we, we-
- JCJason Calacanis
Well, I think-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
... it highlights that, but it also highlights that in the absence of the most powerful man in the world getting the sickness, that we're all gonna basically bitch and point fingers about what the right solution is. And so it can't be the case that the next time there's a crazy illness that's floating around in society, we need to go and target, you know, five or six of the leaders of the G8 plus the Pope plus this, plus that, Beyonce, heaven forbid. You know what I mean? Like, this is crazy. Yeah.
- DFDavid Friedberg
This can't, this can't-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah.
- DFDavid Friedberg
... be how we find single source of truth.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. Well, I think i- i- if... I think, politically speaking, I think there's a lot of upside here for Trump if he does get better in a week. I mean, if the, if these polyclonal antibodies work, then... And he emerges from the White House, you know, fit as a fiddle in a week, he's gonna say, "The cure is here." You know, "I was right."
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
"You don't even need a vaccine. The cure is here. It's over."... and, um, and all the "I told you so"s might, might flip around very quickly.
- JCJason Calacanis
How far off would that be from the truth, David Freeburg? Yeah.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Well, if the polyclone, polyclone antibodies work, I mean, it then is just a matter of scaling them.
- JCJason Calacanis
Can it be scaled, Freeburg?
- 16:55 – 20:36
What happens to the election if Trump is incapacitated & cannot run?
- JCJason Calacanis
refer to the election, though. What happens to the election if, in the next three or four weeks, he's in ICU? What happens then?
Oh, that I don't know.
Well, that's what I was trying to get Sax, I mean-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I would assume it's up to, I would assume it's up to the party to, to make a change to his ballot if they wanted to. But I think if he's in the ICU, he stays on the ballot.
- JCJason Calacanis
So we would literally have an election with him on a ventilator or him... I mean, if he was unconscious, could he... could people still go vote for him?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I think these are very...
- JCJason Calacanis
This is a possibility.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I think, I think these are very low probability outcomes. I think the most, I think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the best care, um, he's, you know... I, I'd say it's probably like at least 50% that this is over for him in about a week, um, and it redounds to his political advantage. I think there's probably a 40% chance that, you know, he's got more like a three or four week case, which I think would hurt him because he just wouldn't be able to campaign. And then there's maybe like a 5 or 10% chance-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Sax, I, I-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
... of something more serious.
- DFDavid Friedberg
... I wonder if he's got... If he... Even if he recovers in a week, the odds are pretty high that he'll have, you know, a long tail of fatigue, right? And so if he ch- if he doesn't change his... If he changes his strategy and, and just does things remotely and whatnot and doesn't do rallies anymore, um, you know, uh, and- and he, he doesn't really come out and say he's fatigued, but, but there's this behavioral change. Does that change things, do you think?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I think he needs to be able to campaign, uh, and hold these rallies. I think that's an essential part of his, uh, election strategy, but also it's always been his way of...... you know, going over the heads of the media that, that hates him and, and talking directly to people and rallying his base, and, uh, field testing his ideas. There was that period when, during lockdowns when he just stopped doing rallies for several months and it really felt like he was adrift. Um, so yeah, I think if he can't do rallies, I think, you know, that could easily swing the election a couple of points and cause him to lose.
- JCJason Calacanis
I think Saxypoo's 100% right.
- DFDavid Friedberg
I was in Indiana last week and, uh, there were, uh, a bunch of folks in the neighborhood where I was staying and I, I was walking my dog and they were walking their dogs, so we were all kind of walking side by side, and they all were ramping up to go to a Trump rally. They were super excited about this, this moment to go hear what he has to say. They were, they sounded like they were kind of in this undecided camp, but they wanted to go to the rally to hear what he had to say and kind of experience that Trump moment. Um, it was a real kind of ground level, um, I think, um-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah.
- DFDavid Friedberg
... proof point for your, uh, for your statement around, like, you know, people really need to feel an ex- 'cause that's a big part of his, uh, his kind of MO is that ground level experience.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
It is, and I, and I think it was, it was one of the reasons why his, um, no one saw his election coming in 2016, is if you turned on the TV and just listened to the commentators, I mean, aside from maybe Fox, um, it seemed like everyone just hated him. But if you attended the rallies you would see that he was reaching a lot of people, tens of thousands of people at each event. And he was flying around doing three events a day, uh, tremendously energetic, just, um... So yeah, I think it's, it would hurt him a lot. Um, but look, if he's back on the stump a week from now you're probably gonna see all sorts of people on the right saying, you know, "I told you so," and, "God healed him," and, you know, "He must be the chosen one," or, you know, "Who, who knows?"
- DFDavid Friedberg
We, we, we, we could be, uh, we could be seeing a Weekend at Bernie's moment here in the next week on-
- JCJason Calacanis
(laughs)
It kinda went, it got dark.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Prop, prop him u- you know, prop, prop him up. I mean-
- JCJason Calacanis
It got dark.
- DFDavid Friedberg
... even if he's just tired, they'll prop him up on a big stick and hold him up in front of the crowds and then put him back in the airplane and fly him back home.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I think we'll know if he's, if he's too tired because, you know, he gets up there and he talks for, like, an hour and a half. I mean, it's like-
- JCJason Calacanis
An hour and a half? He's done two or three.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, it's like, you know-
- JCJason Calacanis
An hour and a half is short for him.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. So-
- 20:36 – 29:05
Debate reaction - who won, who misfired?
- JCJason Calacanis
I- i- i- is it possible we could be talking about Trump having less energy than Biden in a debate, which I think is a good segue here. Are there gonna be two more presidential debates, and what was our take on the absolutely embarrassing shitshow that we saw on Tuesday night, which was supposed-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Wow.
- JCJason Calacanis
... to be the topic today that we're gonna lead off, which was the debate, which seems-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
... unimportant now?
- DFDavid Friedberg
It feels like a year ago. (laughs)
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, how do you expect us to comment on something that happened so long ago?
- JCJason Calacanis
(laughs)
It was 72 hours ago. I mean, come on, people. (laughs)
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Oh my God, it feels like- ... years.
- JCJason Calacanis
2020 is so exhausting. I think I've aged-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
... 30 years in one year.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Totally.
- JCJason Calacanis
It's like three decades.
It's, uh, it, that, that debate, that debate was just a dumpster fire. Um, you know, the way that I thought about it was-
Wrong.
Wrong. Yeah. (laughs)
Not true. (laughs)
(laughs)
I mean, imagine if we-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
No, no, I agree.
- JCJason Calacanis
... really did talk like that about that debate.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I, I, it was, it was a disaster for Trump. It was a disaster for Trump. Um-
- JCJason Calacanis
Go ahead, Sax, explain. 'Cause he's your boy.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Well-
- JCJason Calacanis
Um, are you now not gonna vote for him after that performance?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Th- just to, just to clarify for the audience-
- JCJason Calacanis
(laughs)
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
... uh, I'm not, I'm not pro-Trump. I'm just anti-
- 29:05 – 30:43
Live reaction to Trump being flown to Walter Reed hospital
- DFDavid Friedberg
- JCJason Calacanis
I think
- DFDavid Friedberg
Whoa.
... to Biden.
- JCJason Calacanis
S- s- sorry, Jen. Sorry, I don't want to interrupt, but I just want to read you this headline, "President Trump will be admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on Friday-"
- DFDavid Friedberg
Oh sh-
- JCJason Calacanis
"... uh, for a few days."
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah, I read that-
Whoa.
And it- it- it was his-
- JCJason Calacanis
That- well, hold on a second.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Well, his-
- JCJason Calacanis
That is groundbreaking.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Well, well, his doctor said it's because they're, out of an abundance of caution, they just want to have him in the- in a place where he can be treated if and as he needs it. That may be-
- JCJason Calacanis
You buy that?
- DFDavid Friedberg
... a cover story. I think that, look, if you're getting-
- JCJason Calacanis
I don't buy that. I think he's in trouble.
- DFDavid Friedberg
If you're-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I agree with Jason. That's- that- it is-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
... it is very strange.
- DFDavid Friedberg
When you get a treatment, when- when you get a treatment like he got today-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah.
- DFDavid Friedberg
... you know, eight- eight grams of, uh, immunoglobulin therapy like that, it sucks. Uh, I- I've had this treatment, I've had, uh, immunoglobulin therapy before. And you get knocked out, you- you're on all these steroids, you're on all this anti-allergy stuff. You're a mess for a day or two, and you know, you- you want to get like IVs and stuff that, you know, they give you all sorts of stuff to go with it. I got to imagine that after getting that therapy, he's gonna need to be in some degree of care. And I would imagine it's probably better to just do that around doctors and with all the equipment than try and t- you know, kind of bring everything into the White House. So I don't read it as negatively-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Right.
- DFDavid Friedberg
... but, um-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Well, I mean, do you- do you think it could be, uh, like an anaphylactic, you know, shock, some-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Might be. You might be having some reaction. Yeah, totally. But like I said, a large percentage of people that get these antibody therapies have, um, some sort of allergic response. It's all the way from anaphylactic to, "Hey, I'm having a... My throat's closing. Hey, I feel, yeah, I'm getting flushed. I'm getting a fever." There's all sorts of ways that this can kind of present, so.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
The- the- the world is changing so fast that we can't even complete a podcast without it being obsolete.
- 30:43 – 36:25
Has the economy began to separate from political influence?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
- DFDavid Friedberg
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
Can I tell you one other thing? Um, what did you guys think about the fact, this is a little morbid so you can, we can choose not to talk about it, but the stock market basically did nothing today on the news that the most important person in the free world, theoretically, um-
I think you just answered your own question, uh, Chamath. I can, I can chime in on this one. Is I don't think that people perceive that Trump is good or bad, uh, for the economy either way and that the economy is separated now from politics, because they think Biden or Trump are going to have the same policies, which you said before. They have the same policies. So why does it matter if Trump were to tragically die?
- DFDavid Friedberg
Well, it- it-
- JCJason Calacanis
It would not make a difference in the American economy. It's not going to affect people buying iPhones. It might shake people psychologically, but I don't think in a massive way because he's almost out of office. So I think it's all baked in.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
That's why the market did join. What do you think, Sax?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I want to disagree slightly with the idea this election doesn't matter. Um, I think it will matter a lot if, uh, the Democrats win the Senate as well as the presidency, because then they will have one party control and they can pass much legislation as they want. And I think a lot of things will, will get signed. And I think the Biden presidency could be very consequential, at least for two years, um, while all this legislation is passed, even if, you know, he's not, you know, out in front saying very much. Um, I mean, the significance will be in the, in the pen to sign the legislation. If the Republicans hold on to the Senate, but Biden wins the presidency, I agree with you that it's not going to be a tremendously consequential election because we'll have gridlock and divided government again. And, um, so I think a lot hinges on whether Biden wins with or without the Senate.
- JCJason Calacanis
I, I don't disagree with you. The only thing that I will say is that I think that Biden will drag the country, especially if it's, uh, you know, up and down Democratic ticket, back to the 80s and 90s, more to the sort of the George Baker school of diplomacy and governance. And I think that if... And, and I don't know him to know this, but I think that if he really were to have a legacy, I'm sus- I, I would suspect that part of, again, because he's mentioned that, you know, why did he run? He said the pivotal moment was like Charlottesville and Trump's reaction to Charlottesville. I think Biden is really moored by this concept of decency. And I think that if, if he were there and he thought to himself, I'm going to be here for four years because that's the right responsible thing to do, but no more, um, I don't think that you're going to see a bunch of crazy legislation pass. I think Biden's going to say, "Guys, this is what I expect to do." By the way, did you... Because... And I, and I think I would bet on that because of what he said at the beginning of the debate, he's like, uh, "I am the Democratic Party." I don't know if you guys remember that.
- DFDavid Friedberg
I do remember that. I do remember that.
- JCJason Calacanis
That was incredible. That was so powerful.
That was a, that was a very Darth Sidious emperor move when he said, "I am the Republic."
No, no, no. He was... I think he was trying to basically say, like, firewall the far left or the far left, the socialist left and say, "That rhetoric is not what I was elected on. I was elected on my platform. I am the party. This is what I believe. And everybody else will have to toe the line." And by the way, in the end, that's not such a bad thing.
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
It's a man.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I, I, I agree. I think that that was a really important moment for him, is for him to say, "Look, I'm in charge here," because the Republicans have been making the argument that he's a Trojan horse for all these like far left elements.
- JCJason Calacanis
AOC.
Bernie.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
So it was very, it was very important for him to come forward and say, "No, I'm, I'm the one leading this ticket." Now, that being said, and I think it would be a great thing for the country if Biden brought the Democratic Party back to more of a, you know, Bill Clinton to-
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
... you know, Obama type centrism or center leftism, I guess you could say, as opposed to this sort of like crazy, you know, Marxism or Maoism, whatever you want to call it.
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
But I'm, I'm very skeptical that he will, because I think Biden has always positioned himself throughout his career as being at the center of the Democratic Party. And I think he moves as the Democratic Party moves. I agree he's not going to be all the way to the left of the Democratic Party, but those left elements will drag his sort of center to further to the left and will end up with sort of a compromise. And I think at the end of the day, if the Democrats win Congress, he'll sign whatever they, they pass.
- JCJason Calacanis
Hmm. I'm, I'm not so sure. I, I really, I really, I'm not so sure.
The White House is, uh, not that far away. It looks like it's a 30-minute drive from Walter Reed. Sending a helicopter? Is that normal? Because he drove there last time. Would that be indicative of this as an emergency type situation, sending Marine One, as opposed to just driving there for 20 minutes in a motorcade?
- DFDavid Friedberg
I think they'd get... Like, they'd be, there'd be a lot of liability if he had an actual medical emergency and they were just like, "Yeah, we're going to send him for a few days out of an abundance of caution." The fact that they said out of an abundance of caution, I think, if there is an emergency, you can't get away with saying that.
- JCJason Calacanis
Oh, you can. For sure, they would lie.
- DFDavid Friedberg
I don't know. I don't know. It'll come out later, right?
- JCJason Calacanis
Are you saying the Trump administration is above lying about situations?
- 36:25 – 41:19
Reflection on the execution & reaction to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's letter
- JCJason Calacanis
let's... This is, I think, a good jumping off point to an interesting discussion that blew up on Twitter earlier this week, which is, we can't keep up with all the politics, the, the rhetoric, the vitriol, and this polarization. So, uh, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong wrote a letter saying, "Hey, listen-... "If you, uh, wanna talk about politics, that's fine. Not at my company anymore. We're gonna have a no politics rule, no debating this stuff. And we're going to be ultra, ultra focus... focused," I'm sorry, "at work. Um, and you can check your politics at the door." When you read this, Sax, you've come out in support of Brian Armstrong.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Mm-hmm.
- JCJason Calacanis
Uh, what was your take on his position about "leave your politics at the door when you get to work?" And then we'll go to you, Chamath.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Right. Well, I think, I, I think what Brian... So I, I did, I did compliment, uh, um, his, his manifesto and I, I think, uh-
- JCJason Calacanis
Are you an investor?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I, I am. I'm a small investor in Coinbase, um, and, uh, and, and I'm friendly with, with Brian. And so I, I, I certainly, you know, like the idea of, of defending him against unfair attacks. But, um, I also genuinely like the manifesto. Um, and I think, you know, his argument kind of boils down to, to three components. I think, number one, that having these debates on every issue, whatever the issue du jour is, pulls the company's focus away from its core mission, which he really emphasized. And, um, you know, that mission, mission is challenging enough in its own right. Um, second, he was saying that... And this is something I've said before as well, which is just that politics is just increasingly divisive in our society. It's just inherently divisive. And therefore, it's c- it's, uh, corrosive to team cohesion. And the more you have of that in your company, the worse it is for, you know, the t- the team. And I think the third thing he, he, he mentioned, which I thought was really interesting is that, the freewheeling debate of, or discussion of politics, you know, like, like that we're having here, but we kind of have our own little safe zone here, it risks, uh, hurt feelings or misunderstandings that can become HR issues, because people can then complain about it being-
- JCJason Calacanis
They feel unsafe.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
They feel unsafe and they report it. And so it... That's a further distraction to the corporation.
- JCJason Calacanis
I felt unsafe at moments in this podcast, I'll be honest.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
There was a couple of moments I felt unsafe.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Well, I think one, one, I think one of the reasons why this pod sort of works is because we're all, we're all friends and, uh, we've created a safe space for us to have these conversations. But the workplace is very different. It's not... You know, and I... And, and what I read Brian trying to do is to reimpose a, a true safe space by saying, "Leave your politics at the door." Now I think he's been deliberately misconstrued by, by critics who want to say that, "Well, you have to leave your conscience at the door." You know? That's not true. He's not saying that you can't have your own political views or contribute to, to causes that you like, but you just, you got to do it on your own time. Kind of like Mr. Hand said in Fast Times at Ridgemont High, you know, like, "Do that on your own time." Um, and I... And, and that makes sense to me.
- DFDavid Friedberg
I think like s-... I mean, look, I think about this from the point of view of one of the employees working at one of these companies that doesn't want to be a party to the debate. Um, if I'm an engineer at Google or Coinbase, I go into work and I am captive, right? I, I don't have the option of not showing up to work. If I go to a rally, I have the option of saying, "I'm going to go to this rally and walk away because I don't like the speaker." Or, "I'm going to go to the rally because I want to participate in this dialogue or this debate." I can't do that at work. So it's unfair for work, which is a place that I as an employee have to go to every day, to be a forum for people to express themselves on political points that I may or may not agree with, but more importantly, may or may not want to actually be a party to the discussion around. Um, and I think that's the most important thing to note here, is like, it's not about enabling the free speech of the employees that want to debate. It's about the protecting the workspace for the employees that don't want to debate and don't want to be exposed to that. Um, and I... And that's really important.
- JCJason Calacanis
As, Chamath, as a person of color who, um, you know, have, I'm sure some shr-... Has some strong feelings about what we've seen in terms of police shootings or maybe in your own personal life experience facing racism, uh, again, as a person of color, what are your thoughts on the workplace? Is it... I- Is it possible for you to leave that at the door? That was the criticism I think I saw from the, you know, people who were supportive of BLM and they said the background here was they were trying to get Brian to explicitly say Black Lives Matter and to, you know, have the company rally behind that. Um, and that he didn't... He, he didn't want to have that be part of the work environment and that he was offering people four to six months severance if they would leave, if they don't like the new rules. So what are your thoughts?
- 41:19 – 49:30
How Chamath would have reframed the letter, how Slack & company forums have platformed non-work discourse inside companies
- JCJason Calacanis
I think that this whole thing became a quagmire unnecessarily. I think that he showed, um, a lot of naivety, um, and frankly, like, um, you know, a little bit of stupidity really. Um, it was really poorly written, um, and that's why it's been so misunderstood and misconstrued. In my opinion, I think a lot of what he had to say was valid, but when it was so poorly presented and, you know, the, the essay was like eight minutes and it was rambling and the mission was like, you know, 97% down on the... You know and... It's just like... It was a convoluted fucking mess. So if I had to do it again, if I were him or if I was his advisor and he had asked me, you know, to proofread the essay, what I would have said is more of the following, which is, "Our mission, which is, you know, I think to create financial liberty or something," something like that, you guys can find out what it is, "for the whole world, is unbelievably important. We will talk about every issue through the lens of achieving our mission and we will be disciplined about saying which things matter and which things don't." So for example, if somebody says, "Listen, I really believe in spaying and neutering dogs." The right answer shouldn't be, "Hey, shut the fuck up." It says, "Okay, um, how does that allow us to maximize our users... How does that allow us to achieve our mission? Why does it allow us to achieve our mission?" And if you ask the question, why-... four or five times. In a very first principles way, you'll get to the answer. So I would have rather said, "We are going to train people how to understand what builds up to our mission and what is otherwise something that you should leave at home." And in that context, there are a lot of things actually that are political that need to be brought, especially into a company like Coinbase, which is working in crypto, which is all about eliminating the financial barriers of people that don't have access to it. Like, you are trying to dismantle an extremely exclusionary part of the economy. And so there are potentially many movements that matter, and those movements in countries in which you will want to gain users may look like political movements. That's-
Well, and that was Jack Dorsey's point. He, uh, came out-
So I just think, yeah, so I just think it was a, it was a, it was kind of a too superfi- it was very Silicon Valley-esque reaction. It was emotional. Um, it was a little insecure. And it, it, to me, it missed the mark because there was a lot of validity in what he was saying, but presented in an, kind of in a lens of, you know, Silicon Valley bullshit, and it was not well thought through. So if he had rewritten it and he had said 99% of what he said, but through the lens of why we're going to think about a first principles way of defining how everything ladders into the mission, he will train his employees. Instead, what he created was a schism and a decision point, and I'm not sure that that's how you maximize value in 2020 as a CEO because at the end of the day, you have to deal with an entire population cohort that is, that are in their 20s, early 30s, teenagers that will eventually want to work for you. And whether we like it or not, they're different. And one of the things you need to do if you're going to run an enormous company is understand the psychology of your employees, understand the psychology of how movements and decisions are organized, and then play to win. And it's no different than anybody else. If you want to be in the job, you know, to be the starting point guard for the Warriors, you got to know how to fucking pass the ball. And if you're going to be the power forward, you have to know how to do a certain set of things that are different than that. And so I would sort of have framed it there because I think there was a lot of goodness in what he said, but presented in a pretty shitty manner.
I think it's good he brought up the topic. I do think there's a tactical issue here, and he, he could have laid out the ground rules for, I think to your point Chamath, of how we should talk about, uh, politics at work and what are the ground rules. I think the number one issue here, which people don't talk about, is that Slack and email and forums inside of companies have created a massive distraction. And when somebody goes into the random channel, which is built into Slack, and I know this is in the weeds, but I have seen this happen at multiple companies now. Slack infects a company, somebody creates a room about a topic, whether it's Trump or police violence or immigration, whatever it is, and then people want to sound off on that. And now you've got an electronic forum where people are talking about highly charged issues that makes people feel unsafe. And so what I told my companies was, um, the two companies I run, "You could talk about politics. If you want to go for a walk with somebody and have coffee or lunch and you want to have a two-hour discussion about it, go for it. Please do not put this in electronic form because it's a massive distraction, uh, and there'll be a record that could create downstream human resources issues to your reports back."
I, I have a suggestion. And this is an organizational design experiment, and maybe somebody listening will implement at their company. Allow 100% freeform debate about anything. One condition, you literally need to have a soapbox and like in the 1880s Hyde Park in London-
Yup.
... you put the soapbox someplace in a safe space where you can go and you can talk, and people who want to listen will listen, and people who need to work can work, and people who don't want to listen don't have to be forced to listen. That's the point, the point.
- DFDavid Friedberg
What's the, what's the, what's the digital version of that, that you're suggesting?
- JCJason Calacanis
No, I'm saying a literal room in the campus.
A literal, no, a literal place in your office. You put the soap-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
You have a soapbox, you grab it, you put it on the ground, you stand on it, and you say it. And if you're not willing to do that, then, you know, it's okay, because-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Are you saying that there's no digital version of that? Because people could-
- JCJason Calacanis
I'm, what I'm saying is that, two things. One is the digital version is actually training people to ask why. Why does it matter? Now, the reason why it's important to ask that is because somebody may say, I'll use Jason's example that he loves, "We need to support the Uighurs in China. The best way to do that is to proliferate our software in the following way, because it will free them from enslavement of the Chinese and it will give them access to financial independence." Wow. I mean, okay, that seems to be paying off the mission. So if you were, if, so you got to l- give freedom for people to come up with these ideas, because it may, the first version of this idea may, may not actually be what the final version is, and the final version may be the killer feature. So I, on, on the digital forum, in the Slacks, it should be why? Respect-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, no.
- JCJason Calacanis
That's a very respectful question, why?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
It was-
- JCJason Calacanis
But David, it shouldn't, it should not be in any digital forum because it leads to chaos because we see that on Twitter. And what's happening is the Twitter derangement that we all suffer from is now infected inside-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Totally.
- JCJason Calacanis
... the immu- the communication system that runs the operating system of the company.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Exactly, exactly.
- JCJason Calacanis
Go ahead, Sax.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, that, that's exactly right. So-
- JCJason Calacanis
Since you agree with me, go ahead, Sax. (laughs)
- DFDavid Friedberg
(laughs)
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yes, I do, I do agree with J Cal on this one. So, so look, I mean, Ch- Chamath is right that I'm sure, I- I'm sure Chamath would have written a better letter, but I think we understand the gist of what Brian was trying to say. And actually, I thought it took a lot of courage t- to write it. And what he's basically saying is that politics has become so divisive in our society that there, I mean, it'd be nice if we could have these reasonable debates the way that we're having this discussion inside companies. We didn't have to have these artificial restrictions, but we do. We have to, you know, it's the same reason...... well, you know, that we have the separation of church and state is because people couldn't stop killing each other f- over religious wars. And so finally we had, you know, the Treaty of Westphalia to stop it. And what Brian's basically proposing is a, is a treaty for the workplace because we cannot get along ar- around politics.
- JCJason Calacanis
But David, he is the CEO of an $8 billion company. Could he not have hired somebody to edit that essay?
(laughs)
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Okay. Well, I mean, look, I, I just... To, to me, like the-
- 49:30 – 59:04
Reflection on Jack Dorsey & Dick Costolo's reaction, what this means for Coinbase going forward
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
done corporate.
- JCJason Calacanis
... could ha- it could have been polished for sure.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah.
- JCJason Calacanis
Here is Jack Dorsey's response and I'll have you guys respond to it. I think it's in your wheelhouse in terms of what you said, Chamath. "Bitcoin, AKA crypto, is direct activism against an unverifiable and exclusionary financial system which negatively affects so much of our society. Important to at least acknowledge and connect the related societal issues your customers face daily. This leaves people behind." I, I, I think he's right. You have to view this problem not through the lens of your own emotions, not even through the lens of the frustrations of your employees. You have to help shift the discussion to say, "Why does this achieve our mission?" And just constantly in a thoughtful, respectful way, ask why and by the fourth or fifth why, it will either be something that doesn't matter and you can dismiss it quickly, or something that actually is rooted in fact, and probably is something you need to pay attention to. And maybe the way that the conversation started was probably not with the right language that people given the chance would've framed it differently.
Okay. The worst take, uh, according to the internet's, uh, Twitter's ability to ratio people, which is when you get more comments than likes, um, which is not normally how it works. People are actually taking the time to explain to you how bad your take was as opposed to liking it, is what a ratio is, if you don't know. Um, goes to Dick Costolo, um, who's a friend of ours.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
Uh, "Me first capitalists-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
(laughs)
... who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution." I'll be ha- I mean, and that's enou- that's enough to get you ratioed and have this thing go supernova.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
I mean, Mike Cernovich is retweeting this and losing-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
(laughs)
- JCJason Calacanis
... like, his mind over it, you know, that the former CEO of Twitter is ex- inciting violence. He's a comedian as well, um, De Costolo, so I think he's joking here. And, but he adds the punk- the exclamation point, "I'll happily provide video commentary." Saks-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Y- y- h- h- here, here's m- here's, here's my, uh, disagreement with, with Dick and, and, and with Jack, is ultimately, the societal value of a company doesn't come from whatever platitudes or political statements its, its CEO makes, but rather from the quality of its products and the impact of its products. And in that sense, Dick and Jack are living in a glass house. I mean, Twitter is a sewer of political diatribe and polemical hate. You know, it's... I don't know anyone who feels better, uh, you know, after spending time on Twitter. You know, if, if Facebook is like cigarettes, you know, I, I don't know what Twitter is. I mean, it's like-
- JCJason Calacanis
Fentanyl?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
... fentanyl or something. Yeah. So, so, so ultimately, you know, maybe Jack should spend his time figuring out how to make Twitter into a less socially divisive product instead of... you know, 'cause just issuing woke platitudes is not gonna do it.
- JCJason Calacanis
I agree with the, I agree with that. I don't think platitudes does it. All, all I'm saying is, you have to view it through the lens of, "I want to become the most relevant company possible and achieve the most impact." And I think that there are a lot of times where some of these issues, when presented politically, underlying it is actually some feature or some capability or some way of seeing the problem that unlocks more demand that can help you win. And not knowing a priori what the answers to those questions are, it's important to train people on a framework versus say, "You can't talk." Because I guarantee you what will happen is somebody with some killer feature will be too scared to say something because they're not sure how to say it well. And you and I both know, 'cause we've seen many companies that have gone through that cycle, those companies decay and die.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah. I think it'd be great if, uh, a policy like this wasn't necessary. I mean, it's... I, I agree, it's suboptimal, but I think that it's, it's caused by the fact that people just can't get along around politics anymore.
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah. Friedberg, what is your take on ultimately how Coinbase winds up the year or two after this? Do they get more resumes of hyper-talented people who want to embrace a politics social issue free workplace? Or do millennials and, you know, gen C and this next group of talented folks say, "I don't wanna work for somebody who doesn't want to talk about these issues at work"? And then at the production board where you have a factory where you build, uh, companies, do you have some rule around this yourself, or thoughts about how you run your companies? I think the more clearly you define culture, the more successful your company will be. And right or wrong about whether or not you enable the debate and the discussion and how you define the forums for kind of political discussion within your company, the fact that there is a clear definition and delineation around this point, I think removes the uncertainty. And I think he'll do exactly what he's hoping to do, which is to get people to leave and to attract other people that, that better fit with that cultural model. "I want to put my game face on. I want to go to work and I wanna win the game I'm here to play. I'm not here to fuck around. I'm not here to do other stuff. I want this job because I believe in this mission, and I want this company to succeed in what it's trying to do." And I think other places that allow people to run around and, you know, do things that they may or may not appreciate other people doing, or-
- DFDavid Friedberg
... and you have this kind of low definition kind of culture where some people are happy, some people are unhappy. It all kind of, you know, slows things down and, and, um, and I wouldn't kind of encourage anyone to, um, uh, to let that happen. I think it's really important to just define how it is you want to operate, be really clear about the rules and the boundaries, and then, um, let the process go over.
- JCJason Calacanis
That I, that I, that I agree with as well. I mean, I think it's very much within his right, and I think it took... I do applaud his courage in doing it. I just think that it misses the mark because I think it was too emotional.
I think he could do a 2.0 version and just keep building on the manifesto and say, "Hey, based on the feedback I got, here's how we're gonna do it." No discussion, he, uh, on the electronic communications-
- DFDavid Friedberg
I mean, look at what, look at what, look, Reed, Reed Hastings put out that fantastic, uh, PowerPoint that I think we all know really well, The Cultural Playbook from Netflix. And he, when did he put that out, like two thousand-
- JCJason Calacanis
Almost a decade ago? No, two decades ago. It was 2000, 2001.
- DFDavid Friedberg
And, and he's continued to refine it, right? If you look at those recent iterations of it and they continue to kind of do a better job of defining, um, you know, uh, how, how do they intend to operate, uh, with people. Um, and I think it's, uh, it's only continued to reinforce the innovation that, that drives that company into the $100 billion plus valuation it's, it's earned.
- JCJason Calacanis
Yes. And if you, if there's one important thing, which is that there's a meaningful difference in the average age of a Netflix employee and the average age of a Silicon Valley company. Now, that may be also part of it as well.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
I, I, I think the one thing that Brian could clarify is that you don't have to check your conscience at the door. You... It, it's not... We're, we're not saying that you can't have political views. You're allowed to say things on Twitter or take political stands or donate to whoever you want. It's just that the company itself is gonna be a demilitarized zone. You know, we're not gonna bring-
- JCJason Calacanis
Fair.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
We're not gonna bring these contentious, divisive debates that really aren't related to our core mission inside the company-
- 59:04 – 1:07:32
Predictions for 2021
- JCJason Calacanis
All right, so 2021 is gonna be upon us before we know it. And I wanted to wrap here with each of your feelings on, uh, the economy, uh, technology and politics, economy, technology, politics. How do you feel, uh, about 2021? Are you optimistic, pessimistic, neutral on those? Economy, politics, technology-
- DFDavid Friedberg
Have you guys ever been to Magic Mountain or Disneyland?
- JCJason Calacanis
Of course.
- DFDavid Friedberg
You ever get, you get in one of those log rides, and it's like Raging Rapids or Roaring Waters or whatever they're called.
- JCJason Calacanis
Sure.
- DFDavid Friedberg
And it's just fucking, like, you hop in and this thing just-
- JCJason Calacanis
(laughs)
- DFDavid Friedberg
... takes off down the river.
- JCJason Calacanis
(laughs)
- DFDavid Friedberg
I mean, I don't know, nothing summarizes it up better for me. But in so many ways is that where I feel we are right now. We've all jumped on a bunch of fucking logs and we're shooting down this rapid river. Um, and I think a big part of what I'm feeling, and Chamath is in the middle of this, but there's this extraordinary velocity of capital right now. And, um, when, when I say that, I just mean capital is moving in large amounts very freely, and that creates, like, once in a generation kind of opportunity. It's in part because the Fed has dropped interest rates to zero, so there's all, there's trillions of dollars moving markets, there's a change in an outlook, and the world is being shifted in, in so many ways. This is this really amazing moment that I think we can all be afraid of 'cause we're on a fucking roaring rapid on a log trying to stay afloat. But, um, there is so much happening, uh, in, in, in these markets that we kind of operate in. There's never been a better time to get your business funded or to take your company public or to get customers to make quick decisions and change their behavior, whether they're a consumer or an enterprise customer. Money and decisions are happening at a... Money is moving at a faster pace than we've ever seen, and decisions are happening at a faster pace than we've ever seen. Um, that's my general sentiment. I don't think it stops going into 2021. There's just another kind of floodgate about to open with this election one way or the other.Um, but the- these... We- we're in the middle of this kind of raging rapids right now, and it's, uh- it's a- it's a pretty, um... It's a pretty scary but also kind of exciting kind of time. Um-
- JCJason Calacanis
It's so- it's so well said, Kienwell. I really agree with you. I- I think that it's kind of, like, if you used to take, um, a second to make a $1 decision and a minute to take a $100 decision, the amount of money being flooded into the economy now allows you to, uh, make a $100 decision in a second, right? So, like, the order of magnitude of the mental barrier that it takes, um, has changed. And, uh, I agree with you. I was thinking earlier this week that, um, it's a really incredible time to be alive for one very- in one very specific way, which is obviously there is stuff that's happening that's really turbulent. But there is a chance that a bunch of us can really, um, like, change things in a meaningful way. And, um, and I find it exciting. So I'm generally... Like, I'm super bullish, uh, on the economy. I'm super bullish on tech. Um, and I think I'm actually kind of, like, reasonably optimistic about politics. I think that we're gonna find our civility soon. Um, and, uh- and I don't know why that's going to happen or how it's going to get triggered, um, but I think, honestly, like, the election of Biden, um, will go such a long way to just, um, you know, just showing what is rewarded and then to- to figure out how to reward the folks that were supporting Trump in the first place for purposes of economic, um, you know, pushback.
Could be a nice deescalation, in fact, a- and maybe an olive branch if Biden can bring that Republican Party into the conversation.
Yeah, and Sacks- Sacks had this really beautiful thing that he posted on Twitter, which was like, you know, a- a lot of San Francisco's dysfunction is really going to spread well throughout the rest of the country, because a lot of cities that were shut out of all these tech gains will now see it. And now you can imagine, uh, all kinds of people. There's a guy that I, you know, follow on Twitter. He- he- he lives in Bowie, Maryland. He's an engineer at VMware, um, this Black guy, and he was just talking about how he got promoted, and he's now a principal engineer. And, you know, and I just thought like, "This is really fucking cool." Like, there's gonna be all this redistribution of opportunity all around the country, um, and that'll happen because of coronavirus, because of people's frustration with California, because, you know, of a handful of us, how fed up we've gotten with the culture of Silicon Valley, including, by the way, Bri- what Brian Armstrong wrote, which was- which, again, still very important. Um, and so we'll all be better off for that. So I don't know, I'm pretty optimistic.
Sacks, tech economy, politics 2021.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Well, I- I'm- I'm super bullish about, you know, how... About the entrepreneurial energy in the American economy. Um, it's- it's- it's a hundred times greater than when we started out our careers in this business, you know, 20 years ago in terms of the number of companies that get funded, the ideas, the tools that are available, the funding. I mean, when you think about it, this might be the first time in human history where money is chasing the- like, throwing money at the ideas. I mean, throughout history until, I'd say, the last 10, 20 years ago, you know, the people who had no money but had great ideas ha- always had to go hat in hand to go find the capital. And now it's com- it's completely the other way around. There's so many VCs, and they're all racing around trying to find the people with ideas and, um, so-
- JCJason Calacanis
It was worse than that, Sacks. They had to go give their ideas to a big company-
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Totally.
- JCJason Calacanis
... and take a salary.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Right. Like so, Tesla, you know, Nikola Tesla, the- the original inventor, didn't profit at all from his ideas, you know?
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah.
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Um, and so that was pretty common and, um... And so just this- just how entrepreneurial the US economy has become, I'm very... The new economy has completely taken over, and I'm bullish on that. I think the- the, you know, the- the tweet that Chamath was referencing i- you know, I said that San Francisco's loss is gonna be America's gain, the rest of America's gain, because Middle America was really left out of the new economy. It's just not where it was taking place. And so, you know, globalization really gutted industrial America, agricultural America. They didn't get to participate in the enormous wealth creation over the last two or three decades. And I think, you know, un- I guess, you know, because of what San Francisco has done in terms of driving out companies, I think the- the companies are gonna be... You know, tech companies are gonna be all over the US now.
- JCJason Calacanis
Yeah, totally. It's so- it's fucking awesome.
Should be, uh, super interesting. Uh, and so, uh, let's just lay the odds as we wrap here on Biden winning. Biden...
65-35, approaching 70-30.
Okay. Da- Davids, you got a- you got a handicap for me on Biden winning? What do you think, Sacks?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Well, I mean, the- the- the betting line is- is like somewhere in the 60 to 70% range, and so you'd have to say that the- the betting markets are probably, you know, pretty accurate. I guess, you know, pro- probably there is a 70% chance of him winning. If I had to bet on that line, I'd probably take the 30% underdog, 'cause I think... You know, there's- there's alway- things are so- in so much turmoil right now that anything could still happen.
- JCJason Calacanis
So you think there's a chance that Trump could win?
- CPChamath Palihapitiya
Yeah, and it's probably bigger than 30%. You know, it's probably bigger. Slightly bigger than what the betting markets are giving him credit for.
- JCJason Calacanis
Friedberg, what are your thoughts?
- DFDavid Friedberg
Probably right, yeah. I don't have anything to add to that.
Episode duration: 1:07:32
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