All-In PodcastE96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Adobe’s Figma bet, SaaS disruption, SPAC revival, and macro shocks
- The episode centers on Adobe’s $20B acquisition of Figma, dissecting the deal’s valuation, Figma’s exceptional SaaS growth metrics, and the strategic rationale for Adobe neutralizing a core innovator’s dilemma threat. The hosts contrast monolithic software vendors like Adobe with platform bundlers like Microsoft, exploring antitrust, competition, and how bundling can quietly crush category leaders. They then pivot to Friedberg’s new agriculture-focused SPAC merger in Brazil, using it to discuss food security, fertilizer, and the mounting global famine risk. The conversation closes with macro signals from FedEx’s recession warning, war-in-Ukraine geopolitical risk, inflation, rate hikes, and briefly, David Sacks’ Salvador Dalí film project and AI art exhibit.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasFigma’s growth justifies a seemingly extreme multiple when you model forward ARR.
Despite paying ~50x current ARR, Adobe is arguably paying ~25x next year’s ARR and potentially mid-teens multiples on a near-term path to $1.5–2B ARR, an exceptionally rare SaaS trajectory that can support a premium price.
Adobe is buying its way out of the innovator’s dilemma it couldn’t solve internally.
Figma’s web-native, multiplayer, bottom‑up freemium model threatened Adobe’s high-margin, single-player desktop franchise—something public-market expectations around free cash flow made difficult for Adobe to replicate organically.
Platform bundlers like Microsoft can undercut best-of-breed SaaS products through bundling.
By cloning competitors (e.g., Slack, Zoom), shoving inferior copies into bundles like Microsoft’s E5, and then slowly raising bundle prices, Microsoft can make rival tools effectively free on the margin while constraining the overall SaaS ecosystem.
Founders should choose targets carefully: beating monoliths is easier than beating platforms.
The hosts advise entrepreneurs to attack companies like Adobe (few monolithic products, less bundling leverage) rather than integrated platforms like Microsoft, where distribution and pricing power make category entry far harder.
Running acquired products independently requires preserving their own pricing and go‑to‑market.
If Adobe fully bundles Figma into Creative Cloud, it risks gutting Figma’s dedicated sales incentives and product feedback loop, repeating what happened to Yammer at Microsoft; true independence hinges on independent pricing and GTM.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesThis movement to the cloud or the movement to collaboration—monolithic products are just very much DOA.
— Chamath Palihapitiya
You cannot effectively compete, as it turns out, against Microsoft at any point product.
— Chamath Palihapitiya
Once Yammer was folded into the Office Suite and didn’t have its own independent pricing and its own independent sales team, it just disappeared.
— David Sacks
We may be retracing our way all the way back 30 years because of the crises… around Ukraine and the resulting impact on fertilizer availability and pricing.
— David Friedberg
If America is going to risk war with a nuclear armed power, there better be a vital interest at stake.
— David Sacks
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