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All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast

GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

(0:00) Bestie Intros: Recapping Phil Hellmuth's birthday weekend (7:38) OpenAI launches GPT-4o: better, faster, cheaper (29:40) Sacks demos Glue: How AI unlocked his Slack killer (40:12) Friedberg walks through his major breakthrough at Ohalo (1:01:35) Stanley Druckenmiller bets on Argentina and Javier Milei: strategy, roadmap for the US (1:13:54) Jason's bet on Athena, how AI will change company building (1:22:21) Google launches AI summaries in search Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://twitter.com/Jason https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://twitter.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/05/phil-hellmuth-60th-birthday-bash-las-vegas-45984.htm https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790130703721521305 https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1790089513387143469 https://crfm.stanford.edu/helm/mmlu/v1.3.0/# https://www.businessinsider.com/inflection-implosion-chatgpt-stall-ai-consumer-chatbot-problem-2024-3 https://www.opencompute.org https://glue.ai https://ragie.ai https://ohalo.com https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-transcript-billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1378034932006592512 https://www.athenawow.com/jcal https://calacanis.substack.com/p/startup-productivity-in-the-age-of https://blog.google/products/search/generative-ai-google-search-may-2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEzRZ35urlk https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/chart# https://startuptalky.com/apple-failed-products #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostDavid FriedberghostChamath PalihapitiyahostGuestguestStanley Druckenmillerguest
May 16, 20241h 41mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

AI Upheaval, Super-Potatoes, and Argentina’s Radical Free-Market Bet Explained

  1. This episode of the All‑In Podcast dives into OpenAI’s GPT‑4o launch, Google’s Gemini search overhaul, and how these shifts will remake software, work, and startups. David Sacks demos Glue, his ‘AI‑native’ Slack replacement, while David Friedberg unveils Ohalo’s breakthrough ‘boosted breeding’ technology that dramatically increases crop yields. The besties also dissect Stanley Druckenmiller’s big bet on Argentina under libertarian president Javier Milei and the macro stakes of U.S. deficit spending. Threaded through is a discussion of how AI is collapsing costs, obsoleting startups, and forcing founders to rethink where model innovation ends and product value begins.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

GPT‑4o signals a shift from monolithic models to continuously updated multimodal systems.

Friedberg explains that we’re moving away from massive, infrequently released models toward systems of smaller, specialized models stitched together (math, images, video, etc.) and tuned continuously. GPT‑4o (‘Omni’) embodies this: it ingests text, audio, images, video, and desktop context in parallel, is significantly faster and cheaper, and still benchmarks slightly better than GPT‑4 on Stanford’s MMLU—though it trails Claude 3 Opus on that specific chart. For builders, it means model identities blur into a general ‘AI service’ that’s updated all the time.

Founders must ruthlessly decide where AI model progress ends and their product’s defensible value begins.

Sacks warns that many startups spent years building ‘AI customer support agents’ only to see GPT‑4o instantly outclass their conversational quality and speed, wiping out hundreds of millions in R&D. The lesson: if you build features that the frontier models will soon provide natively, you will be obsoleted. Durable value now lives in workflows, integrations, domain-specific data, UX, and distribution—things the model won’t commoditize away in six to eighteen months.

Glue exemplifies ‘AI‑native’ enterprise software by rethinking the core object of communication, not just adding a bot.

Glue replaces Slack-style channels with topic-based threads—mirroring how ChatGPT organizes chats—so people subscribe to the conversation they care about instead of noisy rooms. Glue AI is embedded, not bolted on: it can query company data (like All‑In transcripts or Craft’s deal flow) via RAG, summarize positions, identify experts, draft outreach (like a tailored letter to Lina Khan), and provide sourced answers inside the main chat. Sacks’ long-term vision is ‘promptless’ AI that automatically chimes in when it can help, once models get good enough at intent detection.

Ohalo’s ‘boosted breeding’ could massively increase crop yields and shift where food can be grown globally.

Friedberg unveils a five‑year, ~$50M R&D effort: by applying proteins that switch off the genetic ‘halving’ process during plant reproduction, parent plants each pass 100% of their DNA to offspring, doubling chromosome sets (polyploidy) in a controlled way. In Arabidopsis they saw 40–50%+ yield increases; in potatoes, two small parent lines (33g and 9g tubers) produced a boosted offspring with 682g of potatoes—far exceeding current market varieties. Beyond yield, it enables consistent, genetically stable seed in crops like potatoes that today must be propagated clonally, and it can combine traits for drought/disease resistance and adapt crops to new geographies (e.g., growing staple crops in currently marginal regions).

AI and globalized talent are driving a deep deflation in startup and operating costs, changing company design.

The besties note that the same startup that needed $3M to build a product five years ago can now plausibly do it with $500K. Calacanis describes his largest-ever seed check into Athena, a service that pairs U.S. execs with highly trained offshore ‘EA/ops’ staff at a fraction of domestic cost—then augments them with AI. JCal’s internal ‘ADD’ framework (Automate, Deprecate, Delegate) pushes teams to use AI (automation), stop low‑value work (deprecate), and offload repeatable work (delegate). Net effect: orgs stay small, per‑employee leverage soars, and many more niche products become viable businesses.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

If you're an app developer, the key thing to understand is where does model innovation end and your innovation begin? Because if you get that wrong, you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete in a few months.

David Sacks

We finally got it to work, and the data is ridiculous. The yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100 percent or more.

David Friedberg

With our system, we took potatoes that made 33 grams and 9 grams, and the boosted offspring made 682 grams. The yield gain was insane.

David Friedberg

The power of your monopoly determines how many mistakes you get to make… Google completely screwed up AI… doesn’t matter. Their monopoly is so strong they can finally get it right by copying the innovator.

David Sacks

Social networks had Friendster, then MySpace, then Facebook. I think the ‘Facebook of AI’ has yet to be created.

Chamath Palihapitiya

OpenAI GPT‑4o (Omni) launch and implications for AI appsGlue: AI‑native enterprise chat and the future of workplace toolsOhalo’s ‘boosted breeding’ and global agriculture/food securityGoogle Gemini, AI Overviews, and impact on search and publishersDruckenmiller’s Argentina/Milei bet and U.S. fiscal policyDeflationary effects of AI on startups, work, and company structureMonopolies, failed products, and how big tech survives missing waves

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