Skip to content
All-In PodcastAll-In Podcast

Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC

(0:00) The Besties welcome Keith Rabois! (4:01) Keith explains why he returned to Khosla Ventures, the differences between Founders Fund and Khosla, and his husband Jacob Helberg's role in Trump Admin (13:09) Business acumen of Trump's cabinet and appointees, diversity of opinion (25:59) Google's new quantum chip: potential impact on encryption, cryptography, and more (43:50) Apple developing new server chip for AI inference, iOS flop, why its product culture is failing (54:30) TikTok panics after appeals court upholds the "divest-or-ban" law, with a January 19th deadline (1:03:55) State of Venture Capital, why Stripe is still private, thoughts on crypto Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow Keith: https://x.com/rabois Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.tiktok.com/@frankielapenna/video/7010077215576575238 https://www.axios.com/2024/12/06/trump-billionaires-cabinet-elon-musk https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y https://research.google/blog/suppressing-quantum-errors-by-scaling-a-surface-code-logical-qubit https://quantumai.google/roadmap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartmut_Neven https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-slit_experiment https://www.discovery.com/science/Double-Slit-Experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-is-working-on-ai-chip-with-broadcom?rc=pxkrxo https://x.com/rabois/status/870673635375104000 https://www.amazon.com/Company-Giants-Conversations-Visionaries-Digital/dp/0070329656 https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/09/tech/bytedance-tiktok-halt-us-ban-intl/index.html https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-us-ban-sale-china-congress-de12b4d22aa8095e62cb0982a6e62235 https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-congress-bill-1c48466df82f3684bd6eb21e61ebcb8d https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/servicetitan-starts-trading-on-nasdaq-after-ipo.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/business/dealbook/ftc-trump-ferguson-khan.html https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2021/6/15/antitrust https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/convertible-bond-arbs-are-making-microstrategy-wall-street-s-hottest-trade #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid FriedberghostGuestguest
Dec 13, 20241h 28mWatch on YouTube ↗

CHAPTERS

  1. 0:00 – 4:00

    Cold Open, Banter, and Introducing Guest Host Keith Rabois

    The episode opens with lighthearted banter among Jason, Chamath, and Friedberg about skiing, viral clips, and in-jokes before formally introducing investor Keith Rabois as a guest co-host filling in for David Sacks. They briefly reference Rabois’ anti-dictator stance and “founder mode” philosophy as a setup for the deeper discussion.

  2. 4:00 – 13:00

    Keith Rabois’ Career Arc and Why He Returned to Khosla Ventures

    Rabois recounts his path from PayPal and LinkedIn to Square, Khosla Ventures, and Founders Fund, and why he ultimately moved back to Khosla. He contrasts Khosla’s early-stage, input-driven approach with Founders Fund’s momentum-focused, later-stage strategy and explains why he prefers investing at the “keynote deck” stage.

  3. 13:00 – 23:00

    Founder-Mode Investing: Assessing People, Not Metrics

    The panel digs into what it takes to write a check off a slide deck, with Rabois emphasizing founder assessment over early metrics. They contrast Khosla’s hands-on, company-building style with Founders Fund’s deliberately ‘hands-off’ posture and discuss how domain expertise can blind incumbents to disruptive ideas.

  4. 23:00 – 25:59

    Why Keith Isn’t Joining the Administration and Jacob Helberg’s New Role

    Rabois explains why he personally declined entering the Trump administration despite strong political interests, while his husband Jacob Helberg has accepted a senior economic role. They frame Helberg’s job as exporting an American economic-strength-first philosophy through foreign policy.

  5. 25:59 – 29:40

    Google’s Willow Quantum Chip: Architecture, Error Correction, and Crypto Threats

    Friedberg gives a detailed but accessible primer on quantum computing and explains why Google’s Willow chip—demonstrating decreasing error rates as more qubits are combined—is a breakthrough. The group then explores the implications for encryption standards, Bitcoin’s security, and how far we might be from real-world quantum attacks.

  6. 29:40 – 38:20

    Trump’s Decision-Making Style and Billionaire Cabinet: Operators vs. Theoreticians

    The group analyzes Trump’s emerging cabinet, notable for its high net-worth business figures, and debates whether bringing wealthy operators into government is beneficial or risky. They argue this resembles the founding fathers’ model of temporary civic duty and contrast it with a professional political and bureaucratic class.

  7. 38:20 – 41:20

    Quantum Weirdness, Many Worlds, and Pop-Science Sidebars

    The conversation briefly detours into the philosophical and pop-science aspects of quantum mechanics, including wavefunction collapse, Schrodinger’s cat, and multiverse interpretations mentioned in Google’s materials. While humorous, the discussion reinforces how counterintuitive quantum behavior is compared to classical physics.

  8. 41:20 – 43:50

    Trump’s ‘Why?’ Superpower and Parallels to Founders

    Rabois reflects on Trump’s repeated political resilience despite intense establishment opposition, attributing it to his habit of questioning entrenched processes. They draw a parallel between Trump’s constant ‘why’ and how successful founders challenge industry orthodoxy.

  9. 43:50 – 54:30

    Apple’s AI Server Chips and the Breakdown of Product Quality and ‘Taste’

    The hosts react to reports that Apple is building its own AI inference server chips while Jason and Chamath rail against the poor quality of iOS 18 and recent iPhones. Rabois frames Apple as a vertically integrated juggernaut whose loss of singular design leadership, without a compensating data culture, is now showing in flawed user experiences.

  10. 54:30 – 1:03:55

    TikTok Under Fire: Data Access, CCP Law, and Reciprocity

    With a January 19 divest-or-ban deadline upheld by an appeals court, the panel dissects why TikTok is viewed as a national security threat. Rabois lays out multiple layers of concern—data access, Chinese law, potential algorithmic manipulation, and asymmetric market access—and suggests classified briefings likely revealed even more alarming details to Congress.

  11. 1:03:55 – 1:16:40

    State of Venture Capital: AI Heat, Crypto Revival, and IPO vs. M&A

    The discussion turns to venture markets, where AI and crypto deals are hot while traditional SaaS still struggles with inflated private valuations. Rabois reiterates his pro-IPO stance and critiques Stripe’s prolonged private status, while Friedberg emphasizes that exit bottlenecks stem more from investors’ refusal to accept markdowns than from market conditions or antitrust policy.

  12. 1:16:40 – 1:29:10

    Tariffs, Immigration, and Industrial Strategy in a New Republican Era

    The hosts explore how a Trump administration might use tariffs and immigration enforcement without stoking inflation, contrary to conventional macro fears. They argue that targeted tariffs can work as reverse subsidies that level the playing field against heavily subsidized and environmentally lax Chinese industries, citing examples from EV supply chains, magnets, and lithium.

  13. 1:29:10

    Crypto’s Speculative Phase, Saylor’s Structure, and Potential Real Utility

    In closing, the panel touches on the latest crypto rally and Michael Saylor’s high-leverage Bitcoin strategy via MicroStrategy convertibles. Rabois sees speculation as the main use case today but compares Bitcoin’s network to the Facebook social graph—valuable if someone can build real applications atop it.

Get more out of YouTube videos.

High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.

Add to Chrome