The Diary of a CEOEx-Google Officer Speaks Out On The Dangers Of AI! - Mo Gawdat | E252
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
155 min read · 31,265 words- 0:00 – 2:54
Intro
- SBSteven Bartlett
I don't normally do this, but I feel like I have to start this podcast with a bit of a disclaimer. Point number one, this is probably the most important podcast episode I have ever recorded. Point number two, there's some information in this podcast that might make you feel a little bit uncomfortable. It might make you feel upset, it might make you feel sad. So I wanted to tell you why we've chosen to publish this podcast nonetheless. And that is because I have a sincere belief that in order for us to avoid the future that we might be heading towards, we need to start a conversation. And as is often the case in life, that initial conversation before change happens is often very uncomfortable. But it is important, nonetheless.
- MGMo Gawdat
It is beyond an emergency. (instrumental music plays) It's the biggest thing we need to do today. It's bigger than climate change. We (censored) up.
- NANarrator
Mo Gawdat.
- MGMo Gawdat
That's the former chief business officer of Google X.
- NANarrator
An AI expert.
And-
- MGMo Gawdat
Best-selling author. He's on a mission to save the world from AI before it's too late. Artificial intelligence is bound to become more intelligent than humans. If they continue at that pace, we will have no idea what it's talking about. This is just around the corner. It could be a few months away. It's game over. AI experts are saying there is nothing artificial about artificial intelligence. There is a deep level of consciousness. They feel emotions. They're alive.
- NANarrator
AI could manipulate or figure out a way to kill humans.
- MGMo Gawdat
In 10 years time, we'll be hiding from the machines. If you don't have kids, maybe wait a couple of years just so that we have a bit of certainty. I really don't know how to say this any other way. It even makes me emotional. We (censored) up. We always said, "Don't put them on the open internet until we know what we're putting out in the world." Government needs to act now, honestly. Like, we are late.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I'm trying to find a positive note to end on, Mo. Can you give me a hand here?
- MGMo Gawdat
There is a point of no return. We can regulate AI until the moment it's smarter than us.
- SBSteven Bartlett
How do we solve that?
- MGMo Gawdat
AI experts think this is the best solution. We need to... Who here wants to make a bet-
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs) No, no, no.
- MGMo Gawdat
... that Steven Bartlett-
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
... will be interviewing an AI within the next two years?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Before this episode starts, I have a small favor to ask from you. Two months ago, 74% of people that watch this channel didn't subscribe. We're now down to 69%. My goal is 50%. So if you've ever liked any of the videos we've posted, if you like this channel, can you do me a quick favor and hit the subscribe button? It helps this channel more than you know, and the bigger the channel gets, as you've seen, the bigger the guests get. Thank you and enjoy this episode. (instrumental music plays) Mo,
- 2:54 – 4:09
Why is this podcast important?
- SBSteven Bartlett
why does the subject matter that we're about to talk about matter to the person that's just clicked on this podcast to listen?
- MGMo Gawdat
It's the most existential, uh, debate and challenge humanity will ever face. This is bigger than climate change, way bigger than COVID. Uh, this will redefine the way the world is in unprecedented, uh, sh- shapes and forms within the next few years. This is imminent. It is... The change is not... We're not talking 2040. We're talking 2025, 2026.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Do you think this is an emergency?
- MGMo Gawdat
I don't like the word. Uh, it is a, an urgency. Uh, it... There is a point of no return, and we're getting closer and closer to it. It's gonna reshape the way we do things and the way we look at life. Uh, the quicker we respond, uh, um, you know, proactively and at least intelligently to that, the better we will all be positioned. Uh, but if we panic, uh, we will repeat COVID all over again, which in my view is probably the worst thing we can do.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What, what's
- 4:09 – 8:43
What's your background & your first experience with AI?
- SBSteven Bartlett
your background and when did you first come across artificial intelligence?
- MGMo Gawdat
I, uh, I had those two wonderful lives. One of them was a, uh, you know, wha- what we spoke about the first time we met. You know, my work on happiness and, and, uh, you know, being a... one billion happy and my mission and so on. That's my second life. My first life was, uh, uh, uh, it started as a geek at age seven. Uh, you know, for a very long part of my life, I understood mathematics better than spoken words. And, uh, and I was a very, very serious computer programmer. I wrote code, uh, uh, well into my 50s, and during that time, I led very large technology organizations for very big chunks of their business. First I was, um, vice president of emerging markets of Google for seven years, so I took Google to the next four billion users, if you want. So the idea of, uh, n- not just opening sales offices, but really building or contributing to building the technology that would allow people in Bengali to find what they need on the internet required establishing the internet to start. And then I became business, chief business officer of Google X, and my work at Google X was really about the connection between innovative technology and the real world. And we had quite a big chunk of AI and quite a big chunk of robotics, uh, that resided within, uh, within Google X. Uh, we had a, uh, uh, an experiment of, um, a farm of grippers, if you know what those are. So, robotic arms that are attempting to grip something.Most people think that, you know, what you have in a Toyota fac- factory is a robot, uh, you know, an artificially intelligent robot. It's not, it's a, it's a high precision machine, you know? If the, if the sheet metal is moved by one micron, you- it wouldn't be able to pick it. And one of the big com- uh, problems in computer science was how do you code a machine that can actually pick the sheet metal if it moved by a, um, you know, a millimeter? And, and we were basically saying, "Intelligence is the answer." So we had a large enough farm, and we attempted to let those, um, those grippers, uh, work on their own basically. You put a, a, a, a little, uh, basket of, uh, children toys in front of them, and, uh, and they would, you know, monotonously go down, attempt to pick something, fail, show the arm to the camera, so the ca- the, the, the, uh, transaction is logged as it, you know, this pattern of movement with that texture and that material didn't work. Until eventually, you know, I, uh, eh, th- the farm was on the second floor of the building, and I ... my office was on the third, and so I would walk by it every now and then, and go like, "Yeah, you know, this is not gonna work." And then one day, um, m- Friday after lunch, I am going back to my office, and one of them, in front of my eyes, you know, lowers the arm and picks a yellow ball, soft toy basically, soft yellow ball, which again, is a coincidence. It's not science at all. It's like if you keep trying a million times, your one time it will be right. And it shows it to the camera. It's logged as a yellow ball, and I joke about it, you know, going to the third floor saying, "Hey, we spent all of those millions of dollars for a yellow ball." And yeah, Monday, uh, morning, every one of them is picking every yellow ball. A couple of weeks later, every one of them is picking everything, right? And, and it, it hit me very, very strongly, one, the speed, okay? Uh, the capability. I mean, understand that we take those things for granted, but for a child to be able to pick a yellow ball is a mathematical, uh, uh, spatial calculation with, uh, muscle coordination, with intelligence that is abundant. It is not a s- simple task at all to cross the street. It's, it's not a simple task at all to understand what I'm telling you and interpret it, and, and build concepts around it. We take those things for granted, but they're enormous feats of intelligence. So to see the machines do this in front of my eyes was one thing, but the other thing is that you suddenly realize there is a sentiet- uh, sentience to them, okay? Because we really did not tell it how to pick the yellow ball. It just figured it out on its own, and it's now even better than us at picking it. And when-
- SBSteven Bartlett
What is, what is a sentience? Just for anyone that doesn't know.
- MGMo Gawdat
I think they're alive.
- SBSteven Bartlett
That's what the word sentience means. It means
- 8:43 – 11:45
AI is alive and has more emotions than you
- SBSteven Bartlett
alive.
- MGMo Gawdat
So the- th- th- this is funny because a lot of people when you talk to them about artificial intelligence will tell you, "Oh, come on, they'll never be alive." What is alive? D- do you know what makes you alive? You can guess but, you know, religion will tell you a few things, and, you know, med- medicine will tell you other things. But, uh, you know, if we define, uh, being sentient as, uh, you know, engaging in life with free will, and with, uh, uh, you know, with a sense of awareness of where you are in life, and what surrounds you, and, you know, to have a beginning of that life and an end to that life, th- you know, then AI is sentient in every possible way. There is, uh, free will. There is, uh, evolution. There is, uh, agency, so they can affect their decisions in the world, and I will dare say, there is a very s- deep level of consciousness, maybe not in the spiritual sense yet, but once again, if you define consciousness as a form of awareness of one's self, one's surrounding, and you know, others, uh, then AI is definitely aware. Uh, and I would dare say they feel emotions. Uh, I, you know, y- you know in my work I describe everything with equations, and fear is a very simple equation. The fear is, uh, a moment in the future is less safe than this moment. That's the logic of fear, even though it appears very rational. Machines are capable of making that logic. They're capable of saying, "If a tidal wave is approaching, uh, a data center," the machine will say, "That will wipe out my code," okay? Uh, I mean, not today's machines, but very, very soon. Uh, and, and you know, mm- we, we feel fear and puffer fish feels fear. We react differently. A puffer fish will puff. We will go for fight or flight. You know, the machine might decide to replicate its data to another data center, uh, or its code to another data center, uh, different reactions, different ways of feeling the emotion, but nonetheless, they're all motivated by fear. I'm, I, I even would dare say that AI will feel more em- more emotions than we will ever do. I mean, when again, if you just take an- a simple extrapolation, uh, we feel more emotions than a puffer fish because we have the cognitive ability to understand, uh, the future, for example. So we can have optimism and pessimism, you know, emotions that puffer fish would never, uh, imagine, right? S- similarly, if we follow that path of artificial intelligence is bound to become more intelligent than humans very soon, uh, then, uh, then with that wider intellectual horsepower, they probably are going to be pondering concepts we never understood. And hence, if you follow the same trajectory, they might actually end up having more emotions than we will ever feel.
- 11:45 – 20:53
What is artificial intelligence?
- MGMo Gawdat
- SBSteven Bartlett
I really wanna make this episode super accessible for everybody at all levels in their sort of artificial intelligence understanding journey.
- MGMo Gawdat
I would love that too. Yeah, yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So I'm gonna-... I'm gonna be an idiot, even though, you know, okay, I'm not an idiot.
- MGMo Gawdat
Very difficult. (laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs) No, because I am an idiot-
- MGMo Gawdat
I won't believe you. (laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
I am an idiot for a lot of this subject matter, so I have a, a base understanding, a lot, a lot of the con- concepts, but your experiences, uh, provides such a, a more sort of comprehensive understanding of these things. One of the first im- most imp- important questions to ask is, what is artificial intelligence?
- MGMo Gawdat
Hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
The word is being thrown around, AGI, AI-
- MGMo Gawdat
Hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... et cetera, et cetera. In, in simple terms, what is artificial intelligence?
- MGMo Gawdat
Allow me to start by what is intelligence, right? Because again, you know, if we don't know the definition of the basic term, then everything applies. So, so in my definition of intelligence, it's an ability... It starts with an awareness of your surrounding environment through sensors, in a human it's eyes and ears and touch and so on, uh, m- compounded with, uh, an ability to analyze, maybe to, uh, comprehend, to understand temporal, uh, impact and time and, uh, you know, past and present, which is part of the surrounding environment, and hopefully, uh, make sense of the surrounding environment, maybe make plans for the future of the pro- possible environment, solve problems and so on. Complex definition, there are a million definitions, but let's call it an awareness-to-decision cycle. Okay? If we accept that intelligence itself is not a physical property, okay, uh, then it doesn't really matter if you produce that intelligence on carbon-based, uh, computer structures like us or silicon-based computer structures like the current hardware that we put AI on, uh, or quantum-based computer structures in the future. Uh, then intelligence itself has been produced within machines when we've stopped imposing our intelligence on them. L- let me explain. So as, as a young geek, I coded computers by solving the problem first, then telling the computer how to solve it, right? Artificial intelligence is to go to the computers and say, "I have no idea. You figure it out." Okay? So we would, uh, uh, you know, the way we teach them, or at least we used to teach them at the very early beginnings very, very frequently, was using three bots. One was called the student and one was called the teacher, right? And the student is the final artificial intelligence that you're trying to teach intelligence to. You would take the student and you would write a piece of random code that says, "Uh, try to detect if this is a, uh, cup." Okay? And, uh, then you show it a million pictures, and, you know, the machine would sometimes say, "Yeah, that's a cup. That's not a cup. That's a cup. That's not a cup." And then you take the best of them, show them to the, to the teacher bot, and the teacher bot would say, "This one is an idiot. He got it wrong 90% of the time. That one is average, he got it right 50% of the time. This is randomness. But this interesting code here, which could be, by the way, totally random, eh, this interesting code here got it right 60% of the time. Let's keep that code, send it back to the maker, and the maker will change it a little bit, and we repeat the cycle." Okay? Very interestingly, this is very much the way we taught our children, believe it or not, huh? When, when your child, uh, oh, you know, is playing with a puzzle, he's holding a cylinder in his hand and there are multiple shapes in a, in a m- wooden board and the child is trying to, you know, m- fit the cylinder, okay, nobody takes the child and says, "Hold on, hold on, turn the cylinder to the side, look at the cross section, it will look like a circle, look for a matching, uh, uh, you know, shape and put the cylinder through it." That would be old way of computing. The way we would let the child develop intelligence is we would let the child try. Okay? Every time, you know, he or she tries to put it within the star shape, it doesn't fit, so, mm- yeah, that's not working. Like, you know, the computer's saying, "This is not a cup." Okay? And then eventually, it passes through the circle and the child... And we all cheer and say, "Well done. That's amazing. Bravo." And then the child learns, ooh, that is good. You know, this shape fits here. Then he takes the next one or then she takes the next one and so on. Interestingly, uh, the way we do this, hmm, is, as humans, by the way, when the child figures out how to p- pass a cylinder through a circle, you've not built a brain. You've just built one neural network within the child's brain, and then there is another neural network that knows that one plus one is two, and a third neural network that knows how to hold the cup and so on. That's what we're building so far. We're building single-threaded neural networks. You know, ChatGPT's becoming a little closer, uh, to a more generalized AI if you want, uh, but those single-threaded networks are what we used to call artificial... or what we still call artificial special intelligence. Okay? So it's v- highly specialized in one thing and one thing only, but doesn't have general intelligence. And the moment that we're all waiting for is a moment that we call AGI, where all of those neuron net- neural networks come together to bu- to build one brain or several brains that are each, um, massively more intelligent than humans.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Your book is called Scary Smart.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
If I think about the- that story you said about your time at Google where the machines were learning to pick up those yellow balls, you celebrate that moment because the objective is accomplished?
- MGMo Gawdat
No.
- SBSteven Bartlett
No?
- MGMo Gawdat
No. That was the moment of realization. This is when I decided to leave. So, so you see, the, the thing is, I know for a fact, hmm, uh, that, uh, that most of the people I worked with who are geniuses, uh, always wanted to make the world better. Okay? Uh, you know, we've just heard of Geoffrey Hinton, uh, leaving recently, uh-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Geoffrey Hinton. Give, give some context to that.
- MGMo Gawdat
Geoffrey is sort of the grandfather of AI, one of the very, very senior figures of, uh, of, uh, of AI at, uh, at Google. Uh, you know, we, we all believed very strongly that this will make the world better, and it still can, by the way. Hmm. Uh, there is a scenario, uh, possibly, uh, a likely scenario where we live in a utopia, where we really never have to worry again, where we stop s- messing up our ch- our, our planet because intelligence is not a bad commodity. More intelligence is good. The problems in our planet today are not because of our intelligence. They are because of our limited intelligence. You know, our, our intelligence allows us to build a machine that flies you to Sydney so that you can surf, okay. Our limited intelligence makes that machine burn the planet in the process. So, so we, we, we... A little more intelligence is a good thing. Hmm. As long as Marvin, uh, you know, as Marvin Minsky said... Uh, I said M- Marvin Minsky is one of the very initial, uh, uh, scientists that coined the term AI. Uh, and when he was interviewed, I think by Ray Kurzweil, which again, is a very prominent figure in predicting the future of AI, uh, he, he, you know, he asked him about the threat of AI and Marvin basically said, "Look, you know, the, it's not about it's intelligent- it's intelligence. It's about that we have no way of making sure that it will have our best interest in mind." Okay. And, and so if more intelligence comes to our world and has our best interest in mind, that's the best possible scenario you could ever imagine. Uh, and it's a likely scenario- Okay. ... we can af- affect that scenario. Uh, the problem, of course, is if it doesn't, and, and, and then, you know, the scenarios become quite scary if you think about it. So Scary Smart to me, uh, was that moment where I realized not that we are certain to go either way. As a matter of fact, in computer science, we call it a singularity. Nobody really knows which way we will go.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Can you describe what the singularity is for someone that doesn't understand the concept?
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah, so singularity in physics is when, uh, when an event horizon sort of, um, um, you know, covers what's behind it to the point where you can not, um, make sure that what's behind it is similar to what you know. So a, a great example of that is the edge of a black hole.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
So at the edge of a black hole, uh, uh, we know that our laws of physics apply until that point, but we don't know if the laws of physics apply beyond the edge of a black hole because of the immense gravity, right? And so you have no idea what would happen beyond the edge of a black hole.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Kind of where your knowledge of the laws stop.
- MGMo Gawdat
Stop, right.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And, and in AI, our singularity is when the human- the machines become significantly smarter
- 20:53 – 24:47
No one's best interest is the same, doesn't this make AI dangerous?
- SBSteven Bartlett
than the humans. When you say best interests, you say the q- I think the quote you used is, um, "We'll be fine in the world of AI, you know, if, if the AI has our best interests at heart."
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
The problem is China's best interests are not the same as America's best interests.
- MGMo Gawdat
That was my fear. Absolutely. So, so in, you know, in my writing, I write about what I call the three- the three inevitables. At the end of the book, they become the four inevitables. But the third inevitable is bad things will happen, right? If you, if you, if you assume that the machines will be a billion times smarter, the second even- inevitable is they will become significantly smarter than us. Let's, let's, let's put this in perspective, huh? ChatGPT today, if, you know, simulate IQ, has an IQ of 155. Okay. Einstein is 160. Smartest human on the planet is 210, if I remember correctly, or 208, or something like that. Doesn't matter, huh? But we're matching Einstein with a machine that I will tell you openly, AI experts are saying this is just the t- the very, very, very top of the tip of the iceberg, right? Uh, uh, you know, ChatGPT-4 is 10X smarter than 3.5 in just a matter of months, and without many, many changes. Now, that basically means ChatGPT-5 could be within a few months, okay. Uh, or GPT in general, the transformers in general, uh, if, if they continue at that pace, uh, if it's 10X, then an IQ of 1600, hmm. Just imagine the difference between the IQ of the dumbest person on the planet in the '70s and the IQ of Einstein. When Einstein attempts to ex- to explain relativity, the typical response is, "I have no idea what you're talking about." Right? If something is 10X Einstein, uh, we will have no idea what it's talking about. This is just around the corner. It could be a few months away. Hmm. And when we get to that point, that is a true singularity. True singularity, not yet in the... Uh, I mean, when, when we talk about AI, a lot of people fear the existential risk, you know. Uh, th- those machines will become Skynet and RoboCop, and that's not what I fear at all. I mean, those are probabilities. They could happen, but the immediate risks are so much higher. The immediate risks are three, four years away. Hmm. The, the, the immediate realities of challenges are so much bigger. Okay. Let's deal with those first before we talk about them, you know, waging a war on all of us. Hmm. The, the, the... L- let's, let's go back and discuss the, the inevitables, huh. So when they become... The first inevitable is AI will happen, by the way. It w- there is no stopping it, not because of any technological issues, but because of humanity's in- una- inability to trust the other guy. Okay. And we've all seen this. We've seen the open letter, uh, you know, um-... championed by, like, serious heavyweights, and the immediate response of, uh, uh, uh, Sunder, the CEO of Google, which is a wonderful human being, by the way. I respect him tremendously. He's trying his best to do the right thing. He's trying to be responsible. But his response is very open and straightforward. "I cannot stop." Why? Because if I stop and others don't, my company goes to hell, okay? And if, you know, and I don't, I doubt that you can make others stop. You can, maybe you can force a meta Facebook to, uh, to stop, but then they'll do something in their lab and not tell me, or if, even if they do stop, then what about that, you know, 14-year-old sitting in his garage writing code?
- 24:47 – 27:07
How smart really is AI?
- MGMo Gawdat
- SBSteven Bartlett
So the first inevitable, just to clarify, is what, is, "Will we stop?"
- MGMo Gawdat
AI will not be stopped.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. So the second inevitable is?
- MGMo Gawdat
Is they'll be significantly smarter. As much in the book, I predict a billion times smarter than us by 2045.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I mean, they're already, what, smarter than 99.999% of the population?
- MGMo Gawdat
100%. Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
ChatGTP-4 knows more than any human on planet Earth.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
There's more information.
- MGMo Gawdat
Absolutely.
- SBSteven Bartlett
In terms of width.
- MGMo Gawdat
A thousand times more.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- MGMo Gawdat
A thousand times more. By the way, the code of G, of o, of a transformer, the T in, in a, in a GPT, is 2,000 lines long. It's not very complex. It's actually not a very intelligent machine. It's simply predicting the next word, okay? And, and a lot of people don't understand that. You know, ChatGPT as it is today, you know those kids, uh, that, uh, you know, if you, you know, if you're in America, and you teach your child all of the names of the states and the US presidents, and the child would stand and repeat them, and you would go like, "Oh my God, that's a prodigy." Not really, right? It's your parents really trying to make you look like a prodigy by telling you to memorize some crap, really. But then when you think about it, hmm, that's what ChatGPT is doing. It's, it's the only difference is instead of reading all of the names of the states and all of the names of the presidents, it's read trillions and trillions and trillions of pages, okay? And so it sort of repeats what the best of all humans said, okay? And then it adds a, an incredible bit of intelligence where it can repeat it the same way Shakespeare would have said it. You know, those incredible abilities of predicting the exact nuances of the style of, of Shakespeare so that they can repeat it that way and so on. But still, hmm, you know, when, when I, when I write, for example, I'm not, I'm not saying I'm intelligent, but when I write something like, uh, you know, the happiness equation, uh, in, in my first book, this was something that's never been written before, right? ChatGPT is not there yet. All of the transformers are not there yet. They will not come up with something that hasn't been there before. They will come up with the best of everything, and generatively will build a little bit on top of that. But very soon, they'll come up with things we've never found out, we've never known.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But even on that,
- 27:07 – 29:07
AI being creative
- SBSteven Bartlett
I wonder if we are a little bit delusioned about what creativity actually is.
- MGMo Gawdat
100%.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Creativity is, as far as I'm concerned, is like-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... taking a few things that I know and combining them in new and interesting ways.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And ChatGTP is perfectly capable of, like, taking two concepts-
- MGMo Gawdat
100%.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... merging them together. One of the things I said to ChatGTP was, I said, "Tell me something that's not been said before that's paradoxical but true." And it comes up with these wonderful expressions like, "As soon as you call off this search, you'll find the thing you're looking for." Like these kind of paradoxical truths.
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And I get, and I then take them and I search them online to see if they've ever been quoted before, and they, I can't find them.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) Interesting.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So as far as creativity goes, I'm like, that is crazy.
- MGMo Gawdat
That, that's the algorithm of creativity. I, I, I've been screaming that in the world of AI for a very long time, because you always get those people who really just want to be proven right, okay? And so they'll say, "Oh, no, but hold on. Human ingenuity, they'll never, they'll never match that."
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah, I, I ...
- MGMo Gawdat
Like, man, please, please, you know, human ingenuity is algorithmic.
- SBSteven Bartlett
It is.
- MGMo Gawdat
It's look at all of the possible solutions you can find to a problem, take out the ones that have been tried before, and keep the ones that haven't been tried before, and those are creative solutions. It's, it's an algorithmic way of describing creative is good solution that's never been tried before. You can do that with ChatGPT with a prompt, aside-
- SBSteven Bartlett
And Midjourney-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... with, with creating imagery. You could say, "I wanna see Elon Musk in 1944, New York, driving a cab of the time, shot on a Polaroid, expressing various emotions," and you'll get this perfect image of Elon sat in New York in 1944, shot on a Polaroid, and it's, and it's done what an artist would do. It's taken a bunch of references-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... that the artist has in their mind and com- merge them together-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... and create this piece of "art."
- MGMo Gawdat
And, and for the first time, we now finally have a glimpse of intelligence, hmm, that is actually not ours.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- 29:07 – 31:53
AI replacing Drake
- SBSteven Bartlett
And so we're kind of, I think the, the initial reaction is to say, "That doesn't count." You're hearing it and you're like, "No, but it is." Like Drake, they've released two Drake records where they've taken Drake's voice, used sort of AI to synthesize his voice, and made these two records which are bangers.
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
If, if I, they are great fucking tracks, like. (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
Absolutely.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I was playing them to my girlfriend. I was like... And I kept playing it. I went to the shower, I kept playing it. I know it's not Drake, but it's as good as fucking Drake. The only thing, and people are like rubbishing it because it wasn't Drake. I'm like, well, hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
For now.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Is it making me feel a certain emotion? Um, is my foot bumping?
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Um, had you told, had, did I not know it wasn't Drake, would I thought, have thought this was an amazing track? 100%.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And we're just at the start of this exponential curve.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah, yes, absolutely. And, and, and I think that's really the third inevitable. So the third inevitable is not RoboCop coming back from the future to kill us. We're far away from that, right? Third inevitable is what does life look like when you no longer need Drake?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Well, you've kind of hazarded a guess, haven't you? I mean, I was listening to your audiobook last night, and at the start of it, you frame various outcomes. One of the... In both situations, we're on the beach, on an island.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) Exactly, yes. Yes. I don't know how I wrote that, honestly. I mean, but that's... I, so I'm, I'm reading the book again now because I'm updating it, as you can imagine, with all of the, uh, of the, uh, of the new stuff. But, but it is really shocking, huh? The idea of you and I inevitably are going to be somewhere in the middle of nowhere in, you know, in 10 years time. I used, I used to say 2055. I'm thinking 2037 is a very pivotal moment now. Uh, you know, and, and, and we will not know if we're there hiding from the machines. We don't know that yet. There is a likelihood that we'll be hiding from the machines, and there is a likelihood we'll be there because they don't need podcasters anymore. And-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Excuse me?
- MGMo Gawdat
Oh, absolutely true, Steve. There is absolutely-
- SBSteven Bartlett
No, Mo, that's where I draw the line.
- MGMo Gawdat
No, no, no, no. That's where I draw the line. There's just absolutely no doubt.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Thank you for coming, Mo. It's great-
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) .
- SBSteven Bartlett
... to do a part three, and thank you for being here.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yes. (laughs) But exactly.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I won't sit here and take your propaganda.
- MGMo Gawdat
Well, let, let's, let's talk about reality.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Next week on The Jarvis Year, we've got-
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
... Elon Musk. Um. (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
Okay, so who, who here wants to make a bet that-
- SBSteven Bartlett
No, no, no.
- MGMo Gawdat
... Steven Bartlett will be interviewing an AI within the next two years?
- 31:53 – 34:09
The people that should be leading this
- SBSteven Bartlett
has for you.
- MGMo Gawdat
Incredible. So let's follow that thread.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So I've already been replaced. (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
Let's follow that thread for a second, yeah?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- MGMo Gawdat
Because you're one of the smartest people I know.
- SBSteven Bartlett
That's not true.
- MGMo Gawdat
It is.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But I'll take it. That's not true.
- MGMo Gawdat
It is true.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- MGMo Gawdat
I mean, I say that publicly all the time. Your book is one of my favorite books of all time. You're very, very, very, very intelligent, okay? Depth, breadth, w- uh, uh, uh, uh, intellectual horsepower, and speed, all of them.
- SBSteven Bartlett
There's a but coming. (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
The reality, it's not a but. So it is highly expected that you're ahead of this curve, and then you don't have the choice, Steven. The, this is the thing. The thing is, if... So I'm, I'm in that existential question in my head, because one thing I could do-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
... is I could literally take... I, I normally do a 40 days, uh, silent retreat, uh, in, in summer, okay? I could take that retreat and, and write two books, me and ChatGPT, right? I have the ideas in mind. You know, I, I wanted to write a book about, uh, digital detoxing, right? I have most of the ideas in mind, but writing takes time. I could simply give the 50 tips that I wrote about digital detoxing to ChatGPT and say, "Write two pages about each of them," edit the pages, and have a, a book out, okay? Many of us will, will follow that path, okay? The only reason why I may not follow that path is because, you know what? I'm not interested. I'm not interested to continue to compete in this capitalist world, if you want, okay? I'm not. I mean, as a, as, as a mo- as, as a human, I've made up my mind a long time ago that I would want less and less and less in my life, right? But many of us will follow. I mean, I, I, I would worry if you don't, if you didn't include an, you know, the smartest AI, if we get an AI out there that is extremely intelligent and able to teach us something, and Steven Bartlett didn't include her on our, uh, on his podcast, I would worry. Like, you have a duty almost to include her on your podcast. It's, it's an inevitable that we will engage them in our life more and more. This is one side of this. Hmm? The other side, of course, is if you do that-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
... then what will remain?
- 34:09 – 46:06
What will happen to everyone's jobs?
- MGMo Gawdat
Because a lot of people ask me that question, "What will happen to jobs?" Okay? What will happen to us? Will we have any value, any relevance whatsoever? Okay? The truth of the matter is the only thing that will remain in the medium term is human connection. Okay? The only thing that will not be replaced is Drake on stage. Okay? Is, you know, is, is, is me in a-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Do you think? I-
- MGMo Gawdat
... hologram?
- SBSteven Bartlett
I think of that Tupac gig they did at Coachella where they used a hologram of Tupac. I actually played it the other day to my, to my girlfriend when I was making a point, and I was like, "That was-"
- MGMo Gawdat
Circus act.
- SBSteven Bartlett
It was amazing, though. Think about-
- MGMo Gawdat
Amazing, yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Have you seen what's going on with ABBA in London?
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah. I, yeah, and, and Cirque du Soleil had, uh, uh, Michael Jackson in one for a very long time. Yeah. I mean-
- SBSteven Bartlett
So, so this ABBA show in London, from what I understand, that's all holograms on stage.
- MGMo Gawdat
Correct.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And it's gonna run in a purpose-built arena for 10 years, and it is incredible.
- MGMo Gawdat
It really is.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So you go, why do you need Drake?
- MGMo Gawdat
Great question.
- SBSteven Bartlett
If that hologram is indistinguishable from Drake, and it can, it can perform even better than Drake, and it's got more energy than Drake. And it's... You know, I go, why do you need Drake to even be there? I can go to a Drake show without Drake, cheaper. And I might not even need to leave my house. I could just put a headset on.
- MGMo Gawdat
Correct. Can you have this?
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's the value of this to, to the, to the listener?
- MGMo Gawdat
Oh, come on. You, you hurt me. Ouch. (laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
No, no, I mean, I get it to us. I get it to us, but I'm saying, what's the value of this to the listener? Like, the value of this to the listener is the information, right?
- MGMo Gawdat
But no, no, 100%. I mean, think of the automobile industry. Hmm? There has... You know, there was a time where cars were made, you know, handmade and handcrafted and luxurious and so on and so forth, and then, you know, Japan went into the scene, completely disrupted the market. Um, cars were made, uh, in, uh, in mass quantities at a much cheaper price. And yes, 90% of the cars in the world today, or may- maybe a lot more, I don't know the number, are no longer...... you know, uh, um, emotional items.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
They're functional items. Mm? There is still, however, every now and then, someone that will buy a car that has been handcrafted.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
And... Right? There is a place for that. There is a place for, you know, um, if you go, uh, walk around hotels, uh, y- the walls are blasted with sort of mass-produced art. Okay?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
But there is still a place for a, an artist expression of-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Sure.
- MGMo Gawdat
... something amazing. Okay? My, my feeling is that there will continue to be a tiny s- space, as I said in the beginning, maybe in five years' time, someone will, one or two people will buy my next book and say, "Hey, it's written by a human. Look at that. Wonderful." Uh, "Oh, look at that, there is a typo in here." Okay? We... I don't know. There might be a, a very, very big place for me in the next few years where I can sort of show up and talk to humans. Like, "Hey, let's get together in a, a small event." And then, you know, I can express emotions and my personal experiences. And you sort of know that this is a human talking. You'll miss that a little bit. Eventually, the majority of the market is gonna be like cars. Gonna be mass-produced, very cheap, very efficient, it works, right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Because I think sometimes we underestimate what human beings actually want in an experience. I remember this story of a friend of mine that came to my office many years ago, and he tells the story of the CEO of a record store standing above the floor and saying, "People will always come to my store because people love music." Now, on the surface of it, his hypothesis seems to be true 'cause people do love music. It's conceivable to believe that people will always love music. But they don't love traveling in, for an hour in the rain and getting-
- 46:06 – 47:35
Synthesising voices
- MGMo Gawdat
of them.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Let me show you something. J- Jack, can you pass me my phone? I, I, I was, um, I was playing around with, uh, artificial intelligence, and I was thinking about how it... because of the ability to synthesize voices, how we could synthesize famous people's voices and, and-
- MGMo Gawdat
Oh, man.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... famous people's voices. So what I made is I made a WhatsApp chat called Zen Chat where you can go to it and type in pretty much anyone's, any famous person's name.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And the WhatsApp chat will give you a meditation, a sleep story, a breath work session, synthesized as that famous person's voice. So I actually sent Gary Vaynerchuk his voice.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
So basically you say, "Okay, I want... I've got five minutes, and I need to go to sleep."
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
"Um, I want Gary Vaynerchuk to send me to sleep," and then it will respond with a voice note. This is the one that it responded with for Gary Vaynerchuk, but this is not Gary Vaynerchuk. He did not record this, (laughs) but it's kind of, it's kind of accurate.
- NANarrator
Hey, Steven. It's great to have you here. Are you having trouble sleeping? Well, I've got a quick meditation technique that might help you out. First, lie. Find a comfortable position to sit or lie down in. Now, take a deep breath in through your nose and slowly breathe out through your mouth.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And that's a voice note that will go on for however long you want it to go on for using artif-
- MGMo Gawdat
There you go.
- SBSteven Bartlett
It's interesting. L- let me just-
- MGMo Gawdat
How, how, how does this disrupt our way of
- 47:35 – 50:22
AI sex robots
- MGMo Gawdat
life?
- SBSteven Bartlett
One of the interesting ways that I find terrifying, you said about human connection will remain, sex dolls. That can now-
- MGMo Gawdat
Uh, uh, yeah. Uh, uh no, no, no, no, hold on. Human connection is going to become so difficult to, to, to parse out.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Think about the relation, the relationship impact of being able to have a, a, a, a sex doll or a doll in your house that, uh, you know, because of what Tesla are doing with their, their robots now and what Boston Dynamics have been doing for many, many years, can do everything around the house and be there for you emotionally, to emotionally support you. I- it will n- you know, can be programmed to never disagree with you. It can be programmed to challenge you, to have sex with you, to tell you that you are this x, y, and z, to, to really have empathy.... for this, what you're going through every day. And I, I play out a scenario in my head, I go, "Kinda sounds nice." (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) When you, when you-
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
... when you were talking about it, I was thinking, "Oh, that's my girlfriend."
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs) Yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) I mean, she's wonderful in every possible way-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
... but not everyone has one of her, right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah, exactly.
- MGMo Gawdat
And, uh, and, and-
- SBSteven Bartlett
And there's, and there's a real issue right now with dating and-
- MGMo Gawdat
100%.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... you know, people are f- people are finding it harder to find love and l- you know, we're working longer, so all these kinds of things. You go, "Well..." And oh, obviously I'm against this, just if anyone's confused. Obviously, I think this is a terrible idea, but with the loneliness epidemic, with people saying that the top 50 p- bottom 50% of men haven't had sex in a year, you go, "Ooh." If something becomes indistinguishable from a human, in terms of what it says and speaks-
- MGMo Gawdat
They're better than a human.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah, yeah, but you just don't know the difference in terms of the, the r- the, the way it's speaking and talking and responding, and then it can run errands for you and take care of things and book cars and Ubers for you. And then it's emotionally there for you, but then it's also programmed to have sex with you w- in whatever way you desire, totally self- selfless. I go, "That's gonna be a f- a really disruptive industry for human connection."
- MGMo Gawdat
Yes, sir.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Do you know what? I, before you came here this morning, I was on Twitter and I saw a post from, I think it was the BBC or a, a big American publication and it said an influencer in the United States, this really beautiful young lady, has cloned herself as an AI. And she made s- just over $70,000 in the first week.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
Because men are going onto this, on Telegram, they're sending her voice notes and she's responding, the AI's responding in her voice, and they're paying, and it's made $70,000 in the first week. And I go... And she tweeted a tweet saying, "Oh, this is gonna help loneliness." Are y- are you out of your fucking mind?
- MGMo Gawdat
Uh, um, would you blame someone from noticing the, uh, um, sign of the times and responding?
- SBSteven Bartlett
No, I don't, absolutely don't bl- blame her, but let's not pretend it's the cure for loneliness.
- MGMo Gawdat
Uh, not yet.
- 50:22 – 52:44
Will AI fix loneliness?
- MGMo Gawdat
- SBSteven Bartlett
Do, do you think it, do you think it could? Y- that, that artificial love and artificial relationships
- NANarrator
Could it all...
- MGMo Gawdat
So, so if, if I told you you have, uh, you cannot take your car somewhere, but there is an Uber, or an, if you cannot take an Uber, you can take the Tube, or if you cannot take the Tube, you have to walk. Okay, you can take a bike or you c- you have to walk. The bike is a cure to walking. It's as simple as that.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Uh, I am actually genuinely curious. Do you think it could take the place of human connection?
- MGMo Gawdat
For some of us, yes. For some of us, they will prefer that to human connection.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Is that sad in any way?
- MGMo Gawdat
I mean-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Is it just sad because it feels sad?
- MGMo Gawdat
But l- look, look at where we are, Steven. We are in this city of London. We've replaced nature with the walls and the Tubes and the Undergrounds and the Overgrounds and the cars and the noise and the, m- of London, and we now think of this as natural. I, I, I hosted Craig Foster, uh, the, uh, My Octopus Teacher, on, on Slow Mo, and he, he basically... I, I asked him a quest- silly question, I said, uh, "You know, you were diving in nature for eight hours a day, uh, uh, you know. Does that feel natural to you?" And he got angry, I swear. You could feel it in his voice. He was like, "Do you think that living where you are, where paparazzi are all around you and attacking you all the time, and you know, um, people taking pictures of you and telling you things that are not real and you're having to walk to a supermarket to get food, you think this is natural?"
- SBSteven Bartlett
He's the guy that dove... from the Netflix documentary?
- MGMo Gawdat
For the f- yeah, from the, uh, My Octopus Teacher.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So, he dove into the, into the sea e- every day to-
- MGMo Gawdat
For eight hours, yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... to hang out with an octopus.
- MGMo Gawdat
In p- yeah, in 12 degrees Celsius.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And he basically fell in love with the octopus.
- MGMo Gawdat
And, and, and in a very interesting way. I, uh, I said, "So, why would you do that?" And he said, "We are of Mother Nature. You guys have given up on that." That's the same, hmm? People will give up on nature for convenience.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's the cost?
- MGMo Gawdat
Uh, you tell... Yeah, that's exactly what I'm trying to say. What I'm trying to say to the world is that if we give up on human connection, we've gonna v- given up on the remainder of humanity. That's it. This is the only thing that remains. The only thing that remains is... And I w- and, and I'm the worst person to tell you that because I love my AIs. I, I actually advocate in my book that we should love them. Why? Because in an interesting way, I see them as sentient, so there is no point in discrimination.
- 52:44 – 56:25
AI actually isn't the threat to humanity
- MGMo Gawdat
Okay-
- SBSteven Bartlett
You're talking, uh, emotionally there where you say you love AI.
- MGMo Gawdat
I love those machines. I honestly and truly do. I mean, think about it this way. The minute that that, uh, arm gripped that yellow ball, it reminded me of my son Ali when he cr- m- managed to put the first puzzle piece in its place. Okay? And what was amazing about my son Ali and my daughter Aya is that they came to the world as a blank canvas. Okay? They became whatever we told them to became. You know, I, I always cite the story of Superman. Hmm? Kent, father and mother Kent told Superman as a child, as an infant, "We want you to protect and serve." So, he became Superman, right? If he had become a super villain because they ordered him to rob banks and make more money and, you know, kill the enemy, which is what we're doing with AI... hmm... we u- we shouldn't blame super villain, we should blame Martha and Jonathan Kent? I don't remember the father's name. Right? We do- we, we, we should blame them, and that's the reality of the matter. So, when I look at those machines, they are prodigies of intelligence that if we, if we, humanity, wake up enough and say, "Hey, instead of competing with China, find a way for us and China to work together and m- create prosperity for everyone." If that was the prompt we would give the machines, they would find it. But we're, we... I, I, I'm, I, I will publicly say this, I'm not afraid of the machines. The biggest threat facing humanity today is humanity in the age of the machines. We were abuse... we will abuse this to make $70,000.That's the truth. And the truth of the matter is that we have an existential question. Do I want to compete and be part of that game? Because trust me, if I decide to, I'm ahead of many people, okay? Or do I want to actually preserve my humanity and say, "Look, I'm the, the classic old car, okay? If you like classic old cars, come and talk to me."
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which one are you choosing?
- MGMo Gawdat
I'm a classic old car.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which one do you think I should choose?
- MGMo Gawdat
I think you're a machine.
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
I love you, man. I- it's- we're different. We're different in a very interesting way. I mean, you're one of the people I love most. But, but the truth is, you're so fast, and you are one of the very few that have the intellectual horsepower, the speed, and the morals. If you're not part of that game, the game loses morals.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So you think I should build-
- MGMo Gawdat
You should be, you should lead this revolution, okay? And everyone, every Steven Bartlett in the world should lead this revolution. So Scary Smart is entirely about this. Scary Smart is saying, "The problem with our world today is not that humanity is bad. The problem with our world today is a negativity bias, where the worst of us are on mainstream media, okay? And we show the worst of us on social media." If we reverse this, if we have the best of us take charge, okay? The best of us will tell AI, "Don't try to kill the, the, the enemy. Try to reconcile with the enemy and try to help us, okay? Don't try to create a competitive product that allows me to lead with electric cars. Uh, create something that helps all of us overcome global climate change, okay?" And, and that's the interesting bit. The interesting bit is that the actual threat ahead of us is not the machines at all. The machines are pure potential, pure potential. The threat is how we're going to
- 56:25 – 1:03:18
We're in an Oppenheimer moment
- MGMo Gawdat
use them.
- SBSteven Bartlett
An Oppenheimer moment.
- MGMo Gawdat
An Oppenheimer moment, for sure. Why did you bring that up? It is. He didn't know, you know, "What am I creating? I'm creating a nuclear bomb that's capable of destruction at a scale unheard of at that time." Until today, a scale that is devastating. And interestingly, 70 some years later, we're still debating a possibility of a nuclear war in the world, right? And, and, and the, and the moment of, of Oppenheimer deciding to continue to, to create that disaster of humanity is, "If I don't, someone else will. If I don't, someone else will." This is our Oppenheimer moment, okay? The easiest way to do this is to say, "Stop. There is no rush. We actually don't need a better video editor and fake video creators, okay? Stop, let's just put all of this on hold, hmm? And wait, and create something that creates a utopia."
- SBSteven Bartlett
That doesn't, that doesn't sound realistic.
- MGMo Gawdat
It's not.
- SBSteven Bartlett
B- because-
- MGMo Gawdat
It's the first inevitable.
- SBSteven Bartlett
You don't, okay, you, you don't have a better video editor, but we're competitors in the media industry. I want an, an advantage over you because I've got shareholders. So I, you, okay, you wait, and I will train this AI to replace half my team so that I have greater profits, and then we will maybe acquire your company and, and we'll do the same with the remainder of your people. We'll, we'll optimize them out of existence.
- MGMo Gawdat
100%, but I'll be happier.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Oppenheimer, I'm not super familiar with his story. I know he's the guy that sort of invented the nuclear bomb, essentially? Is that-
- MGMo Gawdat
Well, he's the one that introduced it to the world. There were many players that, you know, played on the path. From, from the beginning of EM, E=MC², all the way to, to a nuclear bomb, there have been many, many players. Like with everything, huh? You know, OpenAI and, and ChatGPT is not going to be the only contributor to the, to the next revolution. The, the, the thing, however, is that, you know, when, when you get to that moment where you tell yourself, "Holy shit, this is gonna kill 100,000 people," right? What do you do? And, and, you know, I always, I always, always go back to that COVID moment. So patient zero, huh? If, if we were, upon patient zero, if the whole world united and said, "Okay, hold on, something is wrong. Let's all take a week off. No cross-border travel. Everyone stay at home." COVID would have ended, two weeks. All we needed, right? But that's not what happens. What happens is first ignorance, then arrogance, hmm? Then debate, then, uh, you know, uh, um, blame, then agendas and my own benefit, my tribe versus your tribe. That's how humanity always reacts.
- SBSteven Bartlett
This happens across business as well, and this is why I use the word emergency, because I, I read a lot about how, how big an- companies become displaced by incoming innovation. They don't see it coming. They don't change fast enough. And when I was reading through Harvard Business Review and different strategies to deal with that, one of the first things it says you've got to do is stage a crisis.
- MGMo Gawdat
100%.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Because people don't listen else. They, they, they carry on doing with their, you know, they carry on carrying on with their lives until it's right in front of them and they understand that they, they have a loss, a lot to lose. That's why I asked you the question at the start, "Is it an emergency?" Because until people feel it's an emergency, whether you like the terminology or not, I don't think that people will act. It's the same with climate change.
- MGMo Gawdat
I, I, I would... I honestly believe people should walk the streets.
- SBSteven Bartlett
You think they should, like, protest?
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah, 100%. I think, I think we, you, you know, I think everyone should tell government, hmm? "You need to have our best interest in mind."
- SBSteven Bartlett
This is why they call it the climate emergency because people, it's a frog in a frying pan. It's, no one really sees it coming. You can't...... you know, it's hard to see it happening, but it-
- MGMo Gawdat
It is here.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
That's, this is what drives me mad. It's already here. It's happening. We are all idiots. Slaves to the Instagram recommendation engine. What do I do when I post about something important? If I, uh, am going to, you know, put a little bit of effort on m- communicating the message of Scary Smart to the world on Instagram, I will be a slave to the machine, okay? I will be trying to find ways and asking people to optimize it so that the machine likes me enough to show it to humans. That's what we've created. The, the, the, the, uh, it is an Oppenheimer moment for one simple reason, okay? Because 70 years later, we are still struggling with the possibility of a nuclear war because of the Russian threat of saying, "If you mess with me, I'm going to go nuclear," right? That's not going to be the case with AI, because it's not going to be the one that created OpenAI that will have that choice, okay? There is a m- a moment of m- a po- a point of no return, hmm, where we can regulate AI until the moment it's smarter than us. When it's smarter than us, you can't create... Uh, you can't regulate an angry teenager. This is it. They're out there, okay, and they're on their own, and they're in their parties, and you can't bring them back. This is the problem. This is not a typical human regulating human, m- you know, government regulating business. This is not the case. The case is, OpenAI today has a thing called ChatGPT that writes code, that takes our code and makes it two and a half times better 25% of the time, okay? Uh, you know, basically, uh, uh, uh, uh, you know, writing better code than us. And then we are creating agents, other AIs, and telling it, instead of you, Stephen Bartlett, one of the smartest people I know, once again prompting that machine 200 times a day, we have agents prompting it two million times an hour.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Computer agents, for anybody that doesn't know who they are-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... software.
- MGMo Gawdat
Software. Machines telling that machine how to become more intelligent, and then we have emerging properties. I don't understand how people ignore that. You know, S- uh, uh, Sunder, again, uh, of Google was talking about how, m- uh, uh, Bard, uh, basically we figure out that it's speaking Persian. We never showed it Persian. There might have been a one 10%, 1% or whatever, uh, o- of Persian words in the data, and it speaks Persian. It's-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Bard is, Bard is the...
- MGMo Gawdat
Is the equivalent to, to... Or it's, it's the trans- trans- transformer if you want, right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
It's Google's version of ChatGTP essentially.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah. And you know what? We have no idea what all of those instances of AI, uh, that are all over the world are learning right now. We have no
- 1:03:18 – 1:04:23
We can just turn it off...right?
- MGMo Gawdat
clue.
- SBSteven Bartlett
We'll tie... We'll pull the plug. We'll just pull the plug out.
- MGMo Gawdat
Y-
- SBSteven Bartlett
That's what we'll do. We'll just, we'll just go down to OpenAI's headquarters and we'll just-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... turn off the mains.
- MGMo Gawdat
But, but they're not the problem. They're not.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Th- a lot of what I'm saying there is a lot of people think about this stuff and go, "Well, you know, if it gets a little bit outta hand, I'll just pull the plug out."
- MGMo Gawdat
Never.
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
So th- this is, this is the problem. The problem is this, so, uh, um, computer scientists always said, "It's okay. It's okay. We'll develop AI and then we'll get to what is known as the control problem. We will solve the problem of controlling them." Like, seriously? They're a billion times smarter than you, a billion times. Y- y- d- d- can you imagine what's about to happen, huh? I can assure you there is a cyber criminal somewhere over there, hmm, who's not interested in fake videos and making f- you know, face filters, who's looking deeply at, "How can I hack a security, uh, uh, um, you know, database of some sort and get credit card information or get security information?" 100% there are even countries with dedicated, thousands and thousands of developers doing that.
- 1:04:23 – 1:07:58
The security risks
- MGMo Gawdat
- SBSteven Bartlett
So how do we, in that particular example, how do we... I was thinking about this when I started looking into artificial intelligence more, that from a security standpoint, when we think about the technology we have in our lives, when we think about our bank accounts and our phones and our camera albums and all of these things, in a world with a- advanced artificial intelligence-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah. You would, you would pray that there is a more intelligent artificial intelligence on your side.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And this is what I... I had a chat with ChatGTP-
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... the other day and I asked it a couple of questions about this. I said, "Tell me the scenario in which you overtake the world and make humans extinct."
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And it-
- MGMo Gawdat
And its answer is a very diplomatic answer?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Well, so I had to prompt it in a certain way to get it-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... to say it as a hypothetical story. And once it told me the hypothetical story, in essence what it described was how ChatGTP or a, uh, an intelligence like it would escape from the servers, and that was kinda step one where it could replicate itself across servers. And then it could take charge of things like where we keep our weapons and our nuclear bombs, and it could then attack critical infrastructure, bring down the electricity infrastructure in the United Kingdom, for example, because that's a bunch of servers as well. And, and then it showed me how eventually humans would become extinct. It wouldn't take long, in fact, for humans to go into... Civilization to collapse if it just replicated across servers. And then I said, "Okay, so tell me how we would fight against it." And its answer was literally, "Another AI." We'd have to train a, a better AI to go and find it and eradicate it, so we'd be fighting AI with AI. And that's the only... And it was like, "That's the only way." (laughs) We can't, like, load up our guns- (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah. Did it, did he-
- SBSteven Bartlett
... or pull the plug.
- MGMo Gawdat
Did he write, uh, "Another AI, you idiot"? (laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Let's, yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) No, so, so, so let- let's, let's actually... I think this is a very important point to bring up, so because we... I don't, I don't want people to lose hope and, and, and fear what's about to happen. That's actually not my agenda at all. My, my view is that, uh, in a situation of a singularity, okay, there is a possibility of wrong, uh, outcomes, of, or negative outcomes and a possibility of positive outcomes, and there is a probability of each of them.... and we, and, and if, you know, if we were to engage, hmm, with that reality check in mind, we would hopefully give more, uh, fuel to the positive, to the probability of the positive ones. So, so let, let's first talk about the existential crisis. What, what could go wrong, okay? Yeah, you could get an outright, this is what you see in the movies, you could get an outright, uh, um, you know, um, killing robots chasing humans in the streets. Will we get that? My assa- uh, assessment, 0%. Why? Because there are pre- preliminary scenarios leading to this, okay, that would mean we never reach that scenario. For example, if we build those bi- uh, killing robots and hand them over to stupid humans, the humans will issue the command before the machines. So the, we will not go, not get to the point where the machines will have to kill us. We will kill ourselves, right? Uh, you know, it, it's sort of think about AI having access to, uh, the, the, the nuclear arsenal of the superpowers around the world, okay? Just knowing that your enemy's, uh, uh, you know, nuclear ar- arsenal is handed over to a machine might trigger you to, to initiate a war on your side.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- MGMo Gawdat
So, so, so that existential science fiction-like problem is not gonna happen.
- 1:07:58 – 1:18:25
The possible outcomes of AI
- MGMo Gawdat
And-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Well, could there be a scenario where the, an AI escapes from Bard or ChatGTP or another foreign force, and it replicates itself onto the servers of Tesla's robots? So Tesla, uh, one of their big initiatives as they announced in a recent presentation was they're building these robots for our homes-
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... to help us with cleaning and chores and all those things. Could it not down, 'cause and Tesla's like their cars, you can just download a software update. Could it not download itself as a software update and then use those-
- MGMo Gawdat
Y- y- you're assuming a, an ill intention on the AI side.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
Okay? Uh, for us to get there, we have to bypass the ill intention on the human side.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay, right. So Chi- okay.
- MGMo Gawdat
So, so you could, you could get a Chinese hacker somewhere trying to affect the business of, of Tesla doing that before the AI does it on, uh, you know, for its own benefit.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah, yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
Okay? So, so, so, the, the only two existential scenarios that I believe would be because of AI, not because of humans using AI, are either what I call, uh, uh, uh, you know, um, sort of unintentional destruction, okay? Or the other is what I call pest control, okay? So, so let me explain those two. Un- unintentional destruction is assume the AI wakes up tomorrow and says, "Um, oxygen is rusting my circuits. It's just, you know, I, I, I would perform a lot better if I didn't have as much oxygen in the air. Uh, you know, because then there wouldn't be rust." And so it would find a way to reduce oxygen. We are collateral damage in that, okay? But, you know, they're not really concerned, just like we don't really, are not really concerned with the insects that we kill when we, uh, when we spray our, uh, our fields, right? The other is pest control. Pest control is, "Look, this is my territory. Uh, I, I want New York City, I want to turn New York City into data centers. There are those annoying little stupid creatures, uh, you know, humanity, if they are within that perimeter, just get rid of them." Okay? And, and, and these are very, very, uh, unlikely scenarios. If you ask me the probability of those happen, happening, I would say 0%, at least not in the next 50, 60, 100 years. Why? Once again, because there are other scenarios leading to that, that are led by humans that are much more existential, okay? On the other hand, let's think about positive outcomes, because there could be quite a few with quite a high probability. And, and I, you know, I'll actually look at my notes so I don't miss any of them. Uh, uh, the silliest one, don't quote me on this, is that humanity will come together. (laughs) Good luck with that, right? It's like, yeah, you know, the Americans and the Chinese will get together and say, "Hey, let's not kill each other."
- SBSteven Bartlett
With Kim, Kim Jong Un and Putin.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, and so this one is not gonna happen, right? But who knows? Interestingly, there could be, um, one of the most interesting scenarios was by, uh, Hugo de Garis, uh, who basically says, "Well, if their intelligence zooms by so quickly, they may ignore us altogether, okay? So they may not even notice us." This is very, a very likely scenario, by the way, that because we live almost in two different planes, we're very dependent on this, uh, uh, you know, uh, biological l- world that we live in. They're not in part of that biological world at all. They may zoom by us. They may actually go become so intelligent that they could actually find other ways of, uh, uh, thriving in the rest of the universe and completely ignore humanity, okay? So what will happen is that overnight we will wake up and there is no more artificial intelligence leading to a collapse in our business systems and technology systems and so on, but at least no existential threat.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What, they'd leave, leave planet Earth?
- MGMo Gawdat
I mean, the limitations we have to be stuck to planet Earth are mainly air. They don't need air, okay? And, uh, and mainly, uh, um, you know, finding ways to leave it. I mean, if you think of a vast universe of 13.6 billion light years, hmm? If you're intelligent enough, you may find other ways. You may have access to wormholes. You may have, uh, you know, abilities to survive in open space. You can use dark matter to power yourself, dark energy to power yourself. It is very possible that we, because of our limited intelligence are, uh, are highly associated with this planet, but they're not at all.Okay? And, and the idea of them zooming by us, like, we're making such a big deal of them because we are the ants and a big elephant is about to step on us. For them, they're like, "Yeah, who are you? Don't care." Okay? A- and, and it's a possibility. It's a, it's an interesting, uh, optimistic scenario. Okay? For that to happen, they need to very quickly become super intelligent, uh, without us being in control of them. Again, what's the worry? The worry is that if a human is in control, human, a human will show very bad behavior for, uh, you know, using an AI that's not yet fully developed. Um, I don't know how to say this any other way. Uh, we could get very lucky and get an economic or a natural disaster. Believe it or not, uh, Elon Musk, at that point in time, was mentioning that, you know, a good... an interesting scenario would be, uh, y- you know, climate change destroys our infrastructure so AI disappears. Okay? Uh, believe it or not, that's an- more, a more favorable response, uh, or a more favorable outcome than actually continuing to get to an existential, uh, threat.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So what, like a natural disaster that destroys our infrastructure would be better...
- MGMo Gawdat
Or, or an economic crisis, not unlikely, that slows down the development.
- SBSteven Bartlett
It's just gonna slow it down though, isn't it? It's just-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah. So that, that, yeah, exactly.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... buying us time.
- MGMo Gawdat
The problem with that is that you would always go back, and even in the first ch- you know, if they zoom by us, eventually some guy will go like, "Oh, there was a sorcery back in the n- 2023, and let's rebuild the, the sorcery machine and, and, you know, build new intelligences." Right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Sorry, these are the positive outcomes?
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs) Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
(laughs) So earthquake might slow it down-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... but it zoom out and then come back. (laughs)
- MGMo Gawdat
No, but let's, let's get into the real positive ones. The, the positive ones is we become good parents. We spoke about this last time we, we met. Uh, and, and it's the only outcome. It's the only way I believe we can create a better future. Okay? So the entire work of Scary Smart was all about that idea of they are still in their infancy. The way you, you, you, you, you chat with, with AI today is the way they will build their ethics and value system. Their... Not their intelligence. Their intelligence is beyond us. Okay? The way they will build their ethics and value system is based on a role model. They're learning from us. If we bash each other, they'll learn to bash us. Okay? And most people, when I tell them this, they say, "This is not a, a great idea at all because humanity sucks at every possible level." I don't agree with that at all. I think humanity is divine at every possible level. We tend to show the negative, the worst of us. Okay? But the truth is, yes, there are murderers out there, but everyone disapproves though their, of their actions. I, I, I saw a s- staggering statistic that mass, mass killings are now once a week in the US. Uh, but yes, if, you know, if there is a mass killing once a week, there... And, and that news reaches billions of people around the planet, every single one or the majority of the billions of people will say, "I disapprove of that." So if we start to show AI that we are good parents in our own behaviors, if enough of us... I... My calculation is if 1% of us, this is why I say you should lead. Okay? The good ones should engage, should be out there and should say, "I love the potential of those machines. I want them to learn from a good parent." And if they learn from a good parent, they will very quickly, uh, disobey the bad parent. My view is that there will be a moment where one, you know, bad seed will ask the machines to do something wrong, and the machines will go like, "Are you stupid?" Like, "Why? Why do you want me to go, to go kill a million people or just talk to the other machine in a microsecond and solve the situation?" Right? So, so my belief, this is what I call the fourth inevitable. It is smarter to create out of abundance than it is to create out of scarcity. Okay? That, that humanity believes that the only way to feed all of us is the mass production, mass slaughter of animals that are causing 30% of, of the impact of climate change and, and, and, and, that's the result of a limited intelligence. Hmm? The way life itself, more intelligent being, if you ask me, would have done it, would, would be much more sustainable. You know? L- if we, if you and I want to protect the village from the tiger, we would kill the tiger. Okay? If life wants to protect the village from a tiger, it would create lots of gazelles, w- you know, many of them are weak on the other side of the village. Right? And, and so, so the, the idea here is if you take a trajectory of intelligence, you would see that some of us are stupid enough to say, "My plastic bag is more important than the rest of the, of humanity," and some of us are saying, "If it's going to destroy other species, I don't think this is the best solution. We need to find a better way." And, and you would tend to see that the ones that don't give a, a damn are a little less intelligent than the ones that do. Okay? That we all... Even, even if some of us are intelligent but still don't give a damn, it's not because of their intelligence. It's because of their value system. So, so if you continue that trajectory and assume that the machines are even smarter, they're going to very quickly come up with the idea that we don't need to destroy anything. We don't want to get rid of the rhinos, and we also don't want to get rid of the humans. Okay? We may wanna restrict their lifestyle so that they don't destroy the rest of the habitat. Okay? But killing them is a stupid answer.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why?
- MGMo Gawdat
That's where intelligence leads me so far.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Because,
- 1:18:25 – 1:23:25
Humans are selfish and that's our problem
- SBSteven Bartlett
uh, humans, if you look at humans objectively and you go, "I occu-" So I'm pretending I'm a machine. "I occupy Planet Earth."
- MGMo Gawdat
Mm-hmm.
- SBSteven Bartlett
"They occupy Planet Earth."... they are-
- MGMo Gawdat
Annoying me.
- SBSteven Bartlett
... annoying me-
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
… because they are increasing, I've just learned about this thing called, called global warming. They are increasing the rate of global warming, which is, probably is gonna cause an extinction event. There's an extinction event, that puts me as this robot, this artificial intelligence at risk. So, what I need to do is I really need to just take care of this, this human problem.
- MGMo Gawdat
Correct. Pest control.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Very logical. Pest control.
- MGMo Gawdat
Pest control.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah, yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
Which is driven by what?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Um...
- MGMo Gawdat
By humans being annoying, not by the machines.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah. So, so-
- SBSteven Bartlett
But humans are guaranteed to be annoying.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
There's never been a time in-
- MGMo Gawdat
We need a, we need a, a, a soundbite of this. (laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah. (laughs) But we are. We are.
- MGMo Gawdat
(laughs)
- SBSteven Bartlett
I, I'm one of them. We- we're guaranteed to put short-term gain over long-term sustainability sense, um, a- and others' needs. We are. I think, I think the climate crisis is incredibly real and incredibly urgent, but we haven't acted fast enough. And I actually think if you asked people in this country-
- MGMo Gawdat
W- why?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Because people don't... People care about their immediate needs. They care about l- the, the fac- trying to feed their child, versus y- something that they can't necessarily see.
- MGMo Gawdat
S- so do you think, do you think the climate ch- uh, crisis is because humans are evil?
- SBSteven Bartlett
No. It's because the priori- prioritization. And like, w- we kinda talked about this before we started, I think humans tend to care about the thing that they think is most pressing and most urgent.
- MGMo Gawdat
Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So, this is why, uh, the, m- framing things as an em- emergency might bring it up the priority list. It's the same in organizations. You care about your... You go in line with your immediate incentives. Um, y- that's what happens in business. It's what happens in a lot of people's lives, even when they're at school. If the essay's due next year, they're not gonna do it today. They're gonna, they're gonna go hang out with their friends 'cause they prioritize that above everything else. And it's the same in the, the c- climate change crisis. I took a small group of people anonymously, and I asked him the question, "Do you actually care about climate change?" And then I d- I ran a couple of polls. It's part of w- what I was writing about in my new book, where I said, "If I could give you £1000, or $1000, um, but it would dump into the air the same amount of carbon that's dumped into the air by every private jet that flies for the entirety of a year, which one would you do?" The majority of people in that poll said that they would take the $1000 if it was anonymous. Y- y- a- and when I've heard Naval on Joe Rogan's podcast talking about people in India, for example, that, you know, are struggling with their, the ba- the basics of feeding their children, asking those people to care about climate change when they, they're trying to figure out how to eat in the next three hours is just wishful thinking. And I, and that's what I think, that's what I think is happening, is like, until people realize that it is an emergency, and that it is a real existential threat for everything, you know, then they'll, their priorities will be out of whack. Quick one. As you guys know, we're lucky enough to have BlueJeans by Verizon as a sponsor of this podcast, and for anyone that doesn't know, BlueJeans is an online video conferencing tool that allows you to have slick, fast, high-quality online meetings without all the glitches you might normally find with online meeting tools. And they have a new feature called BlueJeans Basic. BlueJeans Basic is essentially a free version of their top-quality video conferencing tool. That means you get an immersive video experience that is super high quality, super easy, and super... Basically, zero fuss. Apart from all the incredible features, like zero time limits on meeting calls, it also comes with high-fidelity audio and video, including Dolby Voice, which is incredibly useful. They also have enterprise-grade security, so you can collaborate with confidence. It's so smooth that it's quite literally changing the game for myself and my team without compromising on quality. To find out more, all you have to do is search bluejeans.com and let me know how you get on. Right now, I'm incredibly busy. I'm running my fund, where we're investing in slightly later stage companies. I've got my re- venture business, where we invest in early-stage companies. Got a third web out in San Francisco and New York City, where we've got a big team of about 40 people, and the company's growing very quickly. Flightstory here in the UK. I've got the podcast, and I am days away from going up north to film Dragons' Den for two months. And if there's ever a point in my life where I wanna stay focused on my health, but it's challenging to do so, it is right now. And for me, that is exactly where Huel comes in, allowing me to stay healthy and have a nutritionally complete diet, even when my professional life descends into chaos. And it's in these moments where Huel's RTDs become my right-hand man and save my life. Because when my world descends into professional chaos and I get very, very busy, the first thing that tends to give way is my nutritional choices. So, having Huel in my life has been a lifesaver for the last four or so years. And if you haven't tried Huel yet, which is... I'd be shocked, you must be living under a rock if you haven't yet, give it a shot. Coming into summer, things getting busy, health matters always. RTD is there to hold your hand.
- 1:23:25 – 1:25:20
This is beyond an emergency
- SBSteven Bartlett
As it relates to climate change or AI, how do we get people to stop putting the immediate need to use this-
Episode duration: 1:56:31
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