The Diary of a CEOProfessor Jiang: World War 3 Has Already Begun, Let Me Explain!
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
100 min read · 20,279 words- 0:00 – 2:11
Intro
- SBSteven Bartlett
In 2024, you made three predictions that have come perfectly true, like Trump would start a war with Iran, and you've made a series of new predictions.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, and I'll explain each prediction one by one. Okay, so first, I predict that Trump will get a third term.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But isn't this constitutionally illegal?
- PJProfessor Jiang
It's not. The president now has emergency war powers, and so he can actually delay the election. My second prediction is Iran is in a forever war and the United States will institute a national draft, meaning that if you're between eighteen to twenty-four in America and you're male, you'll be automatically put into the draft system, and they just pass a law that says that starting December, you will be automatically registered.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which means you're obliged to go and fight.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. Next, the world will move towards an AI surveillance state. So everything you do online is being recorded to figure out how to control you. And then this is the most controversial prediction. This is pretty bad, and I'll explain why, and also I will tell you why this war can only lead to World War 3, why there's a very strong possibility that the American empire will collapse, and also I'll show you what the Russians will do and how the private bankers are controlling you.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I'm not owned by anybody.
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's what you think. [laughs]
- SBSteven Bartlett
So let's talk about that. This is super interesting to me. My team give me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe, and some of you have told us, according to this, that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So favor to ask all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So if there was one simple, free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double-check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of The Diary of a CEO, and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. [upbeat music] Professor Jiang, there's so much going on in the world
- 2:11 – 8:55
Why The US Had No Choice But To Invade Iran
- SBSteven Bartlett
at the moment that it's quite confusing for an ordinary person like me, and you've blown up across the internet because you've been able to demystify all of, all of this craziness, but also because in 2024, you made three predictions that have come perfectly true. Some might say unfortunately.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Unfortunately, yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What were those three predictions?
- PJProfessor Jiang
My first prediction was that Trump would win in November 2024. Second prediction is that he would start a war against Iran. And the third prediction is that the United States would lose this war. And in losing this war, this would radically reshape the geopolitical landscape.
- SBSteven Bartlett
How did you know that Trump would start a war with Iran?
- PJProfessor Jiang
The simple answer is this. The U- the United States have invaded Iran because it has no choice in the matter. If it were not to invade Iran, it would lose its empire. Its empire is based purely on the US dollar, the petrodollar-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm
- PJProfessor Jiang
... which is a Ponzi scheme. If it did not invade Iran, then people would choose not to trade with it anymore. People would choose to not buy US Treasuries.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why?
- PJProfessor Jiang
For the longest time, this system worked fine. But then in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. That was not the issue. The issue was the American response. The American response was to sanction Russia and remove Russia from the SWIFT global payment system. It also ordered Europeans to freeze over two hundred billion dollars in Russian assets, and this is a problem because the very basis for having the US dollar as the global reserve currency is that it would remain politically neutral. It, it-- the Americans guaranteed seamless, n- politically neutral international exchange. So if this trend continues, right, if you don't do anything about Russia, Russia would take over Ukraine, and Russia then would build an alliance with China and Iran. If you look at these three countries on a map, Russia, China, and Iran, this is the entire Asian continent. And then what they can do is this. They can say, "Okay, the United States is a bully. They force us to play by their rules. They get very angry if we don't play by their rules. So let's not play with the United States anymore. Let's just trade amongst ourselves." And then what they can do is they can build a Eurasian railway system connecting Russia, Iran, and China together. And then what this would do is negate American sea power because it's American ships that patrol and protect the oceans. And then what happened is the world, Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, East Asia, would look at the shrinking bloc and think to themselves, "Wow, these guys, the Russians and Iranians and Chinese, they use gold as their medium of, of exchange. Gold is valuable. The Americans, on the other hand, use US dollars as the medium of exchange, which is not valuable. So am, am I better off with the American system or with this new BRICS system?"
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's BRICS?
- PJProfessor Jiang
It's an a- acronym. It stands for Brazil, Russia, India-Uh, South Africa, China
- SBSteven Bartlett
So am I right in thinking, uh, because Iran, Russia, and China were colluding, it threatened US dominance, which is driven by the world using the dollar as the primary currency for trading?
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's correct. Yeah.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. So they felt they needed to invade because then they can control more of the Middle East?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. So by attacking Iran, certain things happen, right? The first thing that happened is that China is now cut off from Middle East energy. China receives anywhere between 50 to 60% of its energy needs from the Middle East, not just Iran, but also Qatar and Saudi Arabia. A lot of people say that China today, it's reliant on renewables, solar, wind, and that's true to a certain extent, but remember that China, it is an industrial powerhouse, so it needs energy from everywhere and everyone. So the fact that China is losing all this energy from the Mi- Middle East presents China with a long-term strategic vulnerability. Okay, that's the first thing that happens. Second thing that happens is that Europe is in a lot of trouble because remember, because of the, of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian energy was sanctioned, and so Europe relied more on Middle E- on the Middle East for its energy needs, especially Qatar. And now Europe has lost all of this oil, so you... And then you have Japan and South Korea, these two powerful East Asian economies are also reliant on the Middle East for its, uh, energy. So now the question is, if you're not getting your energy from the Middle East, where can you get your energy from? And there's only two answers, either Russia or the United States. Russia is at war, and what's happening is the Ukrainian drones are attacking Russian oil refineries and export hubs. So the world, in the short term, have, has no choice but to look to America for its energy needs. And what did Trump do recently? He took over, he took over Venezuela, which has the world's greatest oil reserves. He's threatening Canada. He's threatening Greenland, Mexico, Colombia. If Trump controls the entire Western Hemisphere, the entire world has to beg Trump for energy and resources, and this saves both the US dollar as well as the American empire.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So as part of your prediction in,
- 8:55 – 10:00
Why Trump Thought Iran Would Surrender
- SBSteven Bartlett
in d- 2024, I believe it was, you said that the US would lose this war.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why did you predict that the US will lose this war with Iran?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Because the, the Amer- the American society does not, does not have the political will, does not have the manufactu- manufacturing capacity, and does not have the risk tolerance to fight this war in Iran. Basically, America wants to fight this war as cheaply, as easily, and as quickly as possible, right? So Trump i- Trump really thought that, you know, "If I sent my airplanes to strike Tehran and kill the ayatollah, they would just surrender." That was, like, literally his plan going into this war. He paid no attention to the culture. He paid no a- attention to the history of the Iranian people. He had absolutely no respect for [clears throat] for the nation. And when you do that, when you disrespect your opponent, when you underestimate your opponent, and when you yourself are not willing to commit to
- 10:00 – 13:30
The Mountain Fortress He Underestimated
- PJProfessor Jiang
the fight, you're gonna lose.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So is Iran's game just to dr- draw this out as long as they possibly can? H- H- How are they, you know, 'cause he's taken out the leaders. And then do you also think that Trump thought that just, "If I just bomb the leader, then everything will sort of regenerate itself, and we'll be fine"? What was the sort of fundamental misunderstanding?
- PJProfessor Jiang
There's a lot of confusion as to how this war started. Even today, no one actually knows how this war started. But I think that Trump, given his personality, he was convinced that if he killed the leadership of Iran, then they would have no choice but to surrender, and his proof of concept was, of course, on January 3rd of this year, Delta Force went into Venezuela, kidnapped Maduro, and they just completely surrendered. So in Trump's mind, he wanted to replay this, the Venezuela scenario.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And he didn't realize that Iran is fundamentally different from Venezuela?
- PJProfessor Jiang
The short answer is he is a reality TV star. He thinks in terms of optics. He doesn't think, think in terms of, like, geopolitical strategy. The long answer is that the American military has become a very corrupt and insular institution that is trying to gen- generate as much con- commercial funding as possible in order to fund the military industrial complex.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Did he think that if he was gonna bomb Iran, the people would rise up, they would elect a new government, and that would be that, and then he could control Iran?
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's exactly what he thought. So what I want to do now is go to the map.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
All right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Go ahead.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And show you what he got wrong.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
All right. So this is a map of the Middle East, and the first thing to notice about this map is the top- topography.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What does that mean?
- PJProfessor Jiang
How many mountains you have. So this is... What's really interesting is that the topography between Iraq and Iran are completely different.And this is important because two, in 2003, the Americans invaded Iraq, and they won the war in about two weeks. And the reason why they won the war is the Americans practiced something called shock and awe. [writing] And the idea of shock and awe is that it is a military strategy that believes that if you cut off the head of the snake, the snake will die, a decapitation strike. And so what they did was they went into Baghdad, seized Baghdad, and the regime collapsed, and the war was over. And they were able to do this because of the topography. If you look at a map of Iraq, it's all flat. It's all desert, meaning that you can just fly in your planes, cut off the head of a snake, and the war is over. There's absolutely no way you can defend against airstrikes because you're entirely
- 13:30 – 16:00
The Strait That Could Break The Global Economy
- PJProfessor Jiang
a desert. Now, let's go to, let's look at the topography of Ir- of Iran. And Iran, it's all mountainous. In fact, you can make the argument that Iran is a fortress, [writing] okay? And so the first thing is that Iran can choose to fight a war of attrition.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's a war of attrition?
- PJProfessor Jiang
A war of attrition is a game of Uncle.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's that?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. A game of Uncle is where, uh, we don't have enough power to destroy each other, so wha- what we try to do is we try to create pain points, leverage points to force you to submit, to cry Uncle, right? So because Iran is too large and has 92 million people, it's impossible for the Americans and Israelis to destroy Iran, so what they're trying to do instead is bomb enough targets so that they recognize that resistance, resistance is futile and to surrender, okay? That's the extent of the strategy. But again, the problem with this is that, one, Iran is much too big. Number two is that it is a mountain fortress, which means that you can hide your weapons and your military inside mountains, right? Which allows you to conduct a guerilla warfare strategy against your opponent. And this is exactly what Iran is doing right now, where their underground missile bases are hidden inside the mountains, and then they're able to strike targets throughout the Middle East, primarily American bases, but also energy installations that are key to the American petrodollar system. And so it's a game of Uncle, where the Americans are trying to create as much damage as possible in the Iranian nation. And, and Iran, in response, is trying to destroy as much of, of the global economy as possible to force the world to pressure America to call the war off. So that's the situation we are facing right now. Second thing that Trump got w- got wrong is how vulnerable the global economy is because
- 16:00 – 22:00
The Document Revealing America's Real Plan
- PJProfessor Jiang
the Iranians control something called the Strait of Hormuz, okay? And as you can see on this map, the Stra- Strait of Hormuz, it's a very, very narrow piece of land. It's only about 33 kilometers across. You can actually swim across the Strait, Strait of Hormuz, okay? And why this is important is the GCC exports 20% of the world's energy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
The G, the G what?
- PJProfessor Jiang
The Gulf Cooperative Council, okay? So the Gulf Cooperative Council are certain nations in the Mi- Middle East that align politically. So they include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, uh, the UAE, Oman, Iran, Kuwait. They, they've been exporting energy, but not just energy, but also a lot of byproducts of e- of energy production, including fertilizer, t- to the world, primarily East Asia and India. In return, they've been getting, um, food back. So most people don't, don't, don't appreciate this, but the GCC actually imports 89% of its food needs. And the reason why is that they've become so rich these past few decades that the populations have, um, blown up. And as a result, they have to feed the population, but they don't have agricultural resources. They also don't have water resources. And so they have two major vulnerabilities, which is food and water, and they have a lot of desal- desi- desalination plants around the area. And so-
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's a desalination plant?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. So a desa- desalination plant takes saltwater from the seas and then through an electrochemical process, turns it into portable water that people can use, uh, for drinking purposes and for agricultural purposes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? So as you can see, the entire area, it is extremely vulnerable to drone and missile attacks from Iran. So that's the second thing that Iran has done which Trump did not expect. He didn't expect that the Iranians would close off the Strait of HormuzHormuz. And how the Iranians were able to close off the Strait of Hormuz was just by threatening to attack any ships that wanted to cross it. The reason why is that these ships depend on maritime insurance in order to operate, but if there's a risk, a very high risk of being destroyed, then, um, you will not gonna get insurance.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So it's not that the Iranians have said to these ships, "You can't cross," it's just that the insurers refuse to allow these ships to cross because it's too dangerous.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And Trump didn't... You think they'd consider this before they started bombing Iran, that Iran would have some leverage in shutting down such a critical piece of, uh, water for, you know, shipping fertilizer, energy, et cetera. You think that they would have known this?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. So that's what a lot of people say, that Trump's stupid, that Trump is hot-headed, that he was misled by the Israelis, and there's good evidence to support this. But I want to show you something, okay? It's, it's called the National Defense Strategy. All right? And so this is a document that was published by the Departmen- Department of War, and in it, it explains what the American strategy to maintain global dominance is. And in the introduction, what it says is that, "For too long, America has been bullied by the wor- world. America is a nation that protects the world, yet Europe, East Asia takes advantage of American generosity. The Europeans don't pay for their defense, and so they put all this money into welfare, into their pension system. The Chinese have been giving America a bad trade deal. Um, the Chinese steal American technology and then use it to make products that they sell back to the Americans. So the Americans have been, have been getting a really bad deal for decades, and President Donald Trump, he's gonna change that by doing four things." All right? The National Defense Strategy calls for a four-point program to put America first. The first thing that, um, America's gonna do is gonna secure the Western Hemisphere. Why? Because the Western Hemisphere belongs to the United States.
- SBSteven Bartlett
When you say the Western Hemisphere, what do you mean? What, what region is that?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Is that Canada as well in?
- PJProfessor Jiang
So if you look at a m- map, we can divide, we can divide the map into the Eastern Hemisphere, okay? And the Western Hemisphere.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay, so everything over here.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Everything.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mexico.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Including Greenland, including Canada, including Mexico. Every part of this area belongs to United States. Therefore, you cannot trade with any of these countries without American permission, without paying a tribute to the Americans. And that, th- this is why that the Americans have parked one-third of their naval assets in the Caribbean today. It's to, it's to tell the Chinese and the Russians, "Back off. If you're gonna come here, you either pay a tribute or you'll be attacked." Okay? That's
- 22:00 – 26:00
How The US Plans To Strangle China
- PJProfessor Jiang
the first point of this strategy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
The Western Hemisphere belongs to America, something that they call the Donald Trump Doctrine, okay, which is Trump's corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Okay, so that's point one. Point two is that America wants to reimagine its relationship with its allies. Basically, NATO needs to pay for its own defense. NATO needs to go fight Russia in Ukraine. America will provide support, it'll provide weapons and financing, but NATO needs to do more work. And in East Asia, South Korea and Japan need to do a better job of keeping China in check. Okay, that's point two. Point three is specific to China, and the idea is the United States does not want to destroy China, the United States does not want to humiliate China, but China needs to be put in its place. China needs to respect the power and the reach of the United States, and how the United States is gonna do this is by strangling China economically, right? So if you look at, at a ch- map of China, most of its trade goes through something called the Strait of Malacca, and the Strait of Malacca is the most important maritime choke point in the world. All America has to do is park naval carriers inside the Strait of Malacca, and China will lose 90% of its energy exports.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But if they parked them there, China would still go through, no?
- PJProfessor Jiang
No, because you have to go through the Strait of, Strait of Malacca. So America has something called the First Island Chain, okay? And the First Island Chain prevents China from reaching the Pacific Ocean. The First Island Chain includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia. That blocks China from reaching out into P- into the Pacific.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So in order for it to access trade, it has to go through the Strait of Malacca. And through the Strait of Malacca, it can access, uh, India, Africa, and the, uh, Middle East.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? And so by positioning naval carriers-Inside the Strait of Malacca, it creates a blockade and China would have to pay a toll in order to access, um, the Strait of Malacca
- SBSteven Bartlett
And the fourth one?
- PJProfessor Jiang
And the fourth one is to, um, rejuvenate, reinvigorate Ame- America's defense manufacturing sector
- SBSteven Bartlett
So supercharge the US defense industrial base
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's exactly correct, yes
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah
- PJProfessor Jiang
All right? So what this means is that the Pentagon a few weeks ago went to Detroit and talked to Ford and General Motors and said, "You know what? Because of this war in Iran, we might need you to stop making cars and start making more munitions and drones."
- SBSteven Bartlett
How do you know, how do you know they said that?
- PJProfessor Jiang
It's-
- SBSteven Bartlett
They published it?
- PJProfessor Jiang
They published it, yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Really?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So the United States went to Forbes and GM and said, "We might need you to start making weapons with your factories."
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, and they're happy doing this because the product margins are much greater for weapons than for, for cars. This is the Pentagon, so you can charge as, as- you can charge them as much as you want and they'll pay for it, whereas you make cars, it's for the consumer market, and they may not buy your cars.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? So, so if you're like Ford or General Motors, the best deal in the world is to go make weapons for the Pentagon to fight these wars in the Middle East that can go on for forever. So, so, so we, we have a situation where, okay, look, if you read the news, if you talk to a lot of people, Trump's an idiot, and this war in Iran makes no sense at all. But then [laughs] if you just read
- 26:00 – 31:00
Inside Iran's Hidden War Strategy
- PJProfessor Jiang
the National Defense Strategy that is on the Department of War website, and a- anyone can go there and download it for free and read it themselves, it's a very clear roadmap of what America needs to do in order to maintain imperial hegemony. And so let, let, let's just summarize the major points. The first major point is to maintain control over the Western Hemisphere and create a fortress America
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which is why he invaded Venezuela and he says he's gonna invade Cuba
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. Look-
- SBSteven Bartlett
And also Greenland
- PJProfessor Jiang
Look at all the countries that he's named over the past year. Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Honduras. It's all the Western Hemisphere, right? And they're all together. Second point is to create divide and rule all around the world. So imagine a situation where in Europe, NATO fights Russia in Ukraine. In East Asia, China fights South Korea and Japan. In the Middle East, Iran fights the GCC, allied with Israel. What does America do? America can now sell, sell everyone weapons and resources and finance it. This would be back to World War II.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But it makes them weaker as well, generally
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's the point
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? And then what would happen is that $40 trillion that America has in debt, it would disappear because it would be absorbed by the world, right? So you can say, "Look, Trump's an idiot," but if you actually look at a map and how America wants this map, this world map to play out, it makes perfect sense
- SBSteven Bartlett
Hmm. So the war is going well for Trump
- PJProfessor Jiang
The war's going very well for Trump
- SBSteven Bartlett
Really?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes
- SBSteven Bartlett
But you said in your prediction that he would lose the war
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's your definition of lose the war?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Losing the war means that America would send ground troops, Iran would survive this ground invasion, and this would be so politically damaging that chaos breaks out in the United States and the US ground invasion is forced to retreat, and the United States is forced to retreat from the Middle East
- SBSteven Bartlett
And you still think that's gonna happen
- PJProfessor Jiang
I still think that's gonna happen
- SBSteven Bartlett
So you think the United States is gonna put ground troops in, Iran are gonna resist, and then chaos is gonna break out in the United States
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes. So let me explain to you why ground troops has to be sent
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay
- PJProfessor Jiang
All right. Okay. So in phase one of this war, which started February 28th, and which lasted for about six weeks, the intention was to decapitate the regime, and you do that by striking Tehran, and you do that by striking the military bases, ins- installations throughout Iran. It's, it's what the Americans call shock and awe. And the point is to force the Iranians to call uncle, but that's not what happened. Because-
- SBSteven Bartlett
To, to give up
- PJProfessor Jiang
To give up, basically. Because what the Iranians did was they responded by attacking US bases throughout the GCC. They closed off the Strait of Hormuz and they rallied their people, okay? So rather than surrender, the Iranians basically doubled down, okay? That's phase two of the war. Now we've gone to phase three of the war where Trump has basically decided that decapitation does not work. And so what Trump's gonna do is he's gonna impose a naval blockade on Iran's naval blockade, right? And so the question then is if Trump understands that decapitation does not work, then using game theory-
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's game theory?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Game theory is the belief that all the world is governed by rules and incentives, and once you understand the rules and incentives, you can predict how people behave because people will always behave according to their best interests. So in geopolitics, the nation states are individual playersAnd each nation state is trying to use its resources and, um, its advantages in order to pressure other nation states to obey it. Okay? So Trump recognizes that the Iranians have closed off the Strait of Hormuz, but not only that, but the Iranians can also use the Strait of Hormuz to finance the war, meaning that now they're forcing ships to pay a toll of $2 million in order
- 31:00 – 34:30
80% Chance This Becomes World War 3
- PJProfessor Jiang
to cross it. And so this is a huge advantage for the Iranians. And so Trump has said, "No, I'm gonna blockade your blockade," negating Iran's advantage over the Strait of Hormuz. So when we think about it, again, using game theory, I want to discuss what the Americans will do in order to force, uh, the Iranians to capitulate. Okay? So I would say there's a three-point strategy. The first strategy is economic strangulation.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
You basically destroy the state's capacity to finance the war, and there are two ways that Iran is financing the war so far. The first is using oil exports, right? 90% of Iran's oil goes to China. And, um, this is Kharg Island, okay? This, this little spot here is Kharg Island, and this is where Iran will export 90% of its oil overseas. That's the first mechanism. Second me- mechanism, mechanism is the Strait of Hormuz, where the Iranians now can collect tolls, right? So what you have to do is you have to eli- eliminate both of these finance mechanisms. You can close off both with a naval blockade, okay? So that's strategy one. Strategy two is you need to create as much chaos within Iran as possible. You wanna turn this fortress into a prison. N- and the way you do that is by stirring up ethnic tensions in the country. So if you look at a map, a ethnic map of Iran, what you will discover is that the Persian people are primarily in this area, in the middle of the country. But you go to the borderlands, okay, the border areas, it's primarily ethnic minorities. And there are two ethnic minorities in the country that have always been problematic for the government. The first problematic people are called Baluchs, here, uh, in southeast, uh, Iran by the Pakistani border. They have a history of insurgency against the government, okay? Second people that have been problematic are the Kurds, who are primarily in the, uh, northwest of the country. So if you are the US government, if you are the military, your strategy is to establish forward operating bases in these areas. A forward operating base is, uh, a spearhead of the military, where you insert ground troops to hold an area-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay, so you-
- PJProfessor Jiang
... in order to resupply, in or- in order to push further into the territory.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. So a forward operating base would be the US putting troops into the, the northwest and the southeast, and then using that as a way to, uh, uh, move forward into Iran?
- PJProfessor Jiang
No, you don't wanna move forward into Iran because it's too large. You don't have enough forces to move into Iran. What you wanna do is this. You wanna establish forward operating bases in these areas
- 34:30 – 44:00
The Chess Game Between Four Global Powers
- PJProfessor Jiang
in order to arm and train ethnic insurgents-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay
- PJProfessor Jiang
... that you can also finance as well. And you do this because you wanna turn them into cannon fodder. You for- you have to force a response from the Iranian military, right? So if they come in with the army in order to quell these rebellions, that's great because now you can use your air power to decimate the Iranian military. Your problem right now is the Iran- Iranian military is hiding inside mountains, and so you wanna force them out in the open, and so you wanna create as many points of tension in the country as possible to force the Iranian military to respond, right? Does that make sense?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. And now your third strategy is to strangle the capital, Tehran, because that's the, that's where the political elite are. It's about a city of 10 million people. And the way you strangle Tehran is you de- de- deny them three things. You deny them water, electricity, and food. So you attack power plants. You attack reservoirs. You attack railways that bring, um, food into the capital. And when you do that, these nine, these 10 million people in Iran will now oppose the government and demand a political settlement because they need food, uh, water, and electricity to survive, [laughs] right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Is there a government?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right now, there's debate as to the true extent of leadership in Iran.
- SBSteven Bartlett
'Cause Trump's recent interviews, he's saying, he's, he's claiming that the, the leadership in Iran are fighting themselves, but then he's also saying in other interviews that there's, they don't even know who they're dealing with.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. Iran has a very unusual political system.In, in that, um, it's a theocracy. It's a religious government. It's run by clerics called the mullahs, in theory. And then there's a parallel system, a state apparatus, that actually takes care of day-to-day, day-to-day bureaucracy, okay? And that's secular. Uh, the mullahs control the morality of the country. They also control foreign affairs. So basically, um, this is important because Iran has two parallel military structures. You have the military, but you also have the IRGC. The IRGC are only loyal to the mullahs.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which is the religious part.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. All right? So you have this divide in the, in the country where the IRGC see this as a religious war, as a crusade to kill the Great Satan, and they want to fight to the death.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And the Great Satan is?
- PJProfessor Jiang
The Great Satan is the American empire.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Uh, which is the source of the misery that Iran has, has been suffering for the past few decades. And the IRGC, not only do they see America as the Great Satan, but they also see this as a global conflict because they have proxies that support their beliefs, including here in Lebanon, Hezbollah, including here in Yemen, the Houthis, and of course in Palestine, Hamas. Okay, and, and before, Syria was also part of their axis of resistance, but Syria has been toppled by the Americans and the Israelis. So the IRGC see this as a religious crusade that is global in nature. The political leadership in Tehran sees it completely different. They see this as a conflict primarily between America and Iran, and they want to reach a political settlement as soon as possible. And so in other words, these ceasefire negotiations, it's really all for show because at the end of the day, even if the Americans gave the Iranians everything they wanted, the IRGC still controls, um, the battlefield, and they would not, um, surrender or, or seek peace terms lightly. Another problem in this situation is the IRGC practice something called the Mosaic strategy. Mosaic. The idea of the Mosaic strategy is, okay, you know the Americans are the most effective military ever in human history. You know that they practice shock and awe, decapitation. So how do you respond to that? You respond to that using decentralization. 31 provinces in the country with their own command and control that is localized.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So basically they have 31 different armies that have their own leadership.
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's correct. Okay? And when you do this, it's a fight to the finish.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why did they do that?
- PJProfessor Jiang
They did it because the Americans possess the most sophisticated surveillance technology in the world, meaning they can easily identify the leadership, and they can easily track you down and kill you. So the only way around that is to decentralize the leadership and spread all around the country so that the Americans cannot kill the, everyone.
- SBSteven Bartlett
How does the central government orchestrate 31 different armies in Iran? How does it get a message out to them? I heard Peter Hegseth make a, a comment in one of the interviews saying that it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies, and what he was saying basically is that, um, when the ceasefire was called and there was still some, um, missiles flying, he was basically saying that's just because it takes a long time to tell the 31 different armies to stop.
- PJProfessor Jiang
The reality is that given the Mosaic strategy, there's actually no way to coordinate these 31 different military operations because the Mosaic strategy was meant to de- was meant to fight to the bitter end. You do not stop until you completely control the Middle East and the Americans have been forced out of the Middle East and Israel has been humbled.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So let's go into the specifics of what the Mosaic strategy is. The idea is that they have an eschatology. Okay? So an eschatology is an understanding of how the world should be and how we move towards this world. And for the Iranians, their eschatology is that Iran, in order to reach its true potential, needs to be master of the Muslim world. It needs to displace Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia is too aligned with the United States, which is the Great Satan. Mecca and Medina are under the influence of the Great Satan, because why are there US military bases in Saudi Arabia? So this war, from their perspective, it's a great opportunity to overthrow the corrupt leadership of Saudi Arabia, but not only Saudi Arabia, but the entire GCC, overthrow the corrupt governments of the entire Muslim world and install governments that put God, Allah, first.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So they're, they're not gonna quit, Iran.
- PJProfessor Jiang
This war, once it starts, can only lead to World War III.
- SBSteven Bartlett
That's a strong statement to make. As a probability-
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay
- SBSteven Bartlett
... what probability would you assign to that claim?
- PJProfessor Jiang
I would put it pretty high, anywhere between 80 to 90% probability.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. So that's certainty.
- 44:00 – 50:00
The Russian Tanker Seizures Nobody's Reporting
- PJProfessor Jiang
over the entire world, and the grand strategy, it's already outlined in the National Defense Strategy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? Let's create fortress America, and then create chaos throughout the entire world so that we can sell everyone weapons and resources.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay? That's the grand strategy, all right? All right. Now, once you have a grand strategy, you need, you need to implement this grand strategy, so you need attack vectors. All right? The attack vectors are the rook, the bishop, and the knight. All right? So let's go over the three major attack vectors of the United States. They are, first of all, America's technological supremacy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So these are basically the tools that they use to attack others?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly, in order to achieve their grand strategy. All right, so aerial supremacy, right?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which is, uh, the planes and the stuff like that.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Then you have the US dollar, right? Because the US dollar allows you to finance everything, and everyone wants the, um, uh, US dollar, okay?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So that is the second attack vector. Now, third attack vector is propaganda, meaning United States controls the world's most powerful media, including New York Times, CNN, and as such, they can control the narrative of the world. Okay? So these are the three major attack vectors. Now they use the pawns. The pawns are weapons that they can sacrifice in order to achieve their grand strategy. And in the case of United States, the pawn are the allies.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Meaning, I hate to say this, but the UK [laughs] , um, Europe, South Korea, and Japan. Okay? And also the entire Western Hemisphere. This is the Amer- the Americans, okay? The people who are most opp- opposed to this grand strategy of the Americans are the Russians. So let's go over the, the Russian system. In the Russian system, the king, the political system, it's an autocracy, and an autocracy, it's good because it allows for coordination. It allows for decisiveness. It allows for, um, resolve.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Long-term thinking.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. Right? That's Putin. What's bad is, mm, if this guy dies, there's a succession crisis, right? So basically, once you topple the autocrat, then the system itself breaks down. Okay, so that's the Russian system, all right? For the Russians, their grand strategy is something called the Third Rome strategy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
The Third Rome strategy?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes. Okay? So the people in Russia believe that they are the true successors to the Roman Empire, and previously, there were two Romes. There was the first Rome, then it moved to Constantinople, and Moscow is destined to the, to be the third Rome. And what makes Moscow interesting is that it wants to int- unite the entire Christian world under its leadership. Um, the main philosopher for the Third Rome strategy is Alexander Dugin, who in 1997 wrote a, wrote a book called Foundation of Geopolitics, and what he said was this. What he said that if Russia is to defeat the Americans, it needs to build alliances throughout Eurasia in order to negate American sea power and aerial supremacy, all right? So what are the attack vectors [clears throat] for Russia? Okay. The first attack vector, the size of the country makes it almost invincible. So if you think about World War II, Operation Barbarossa, the Germans went into Russia with six, seven million men, and it didn't get very far, okay? So the terrain is very important. The geography is very important. Then you have the Orthodox religion, which is meant to galvanize believers into supporting Russia. The third attack vector is artillery. So Russia has the best land army in the world, and we- we're seeing that play out in Ukraine, where, um, a combination of Russian artillery and drones, it's devastating the Ukrainian military in Ukraine. The pawns for Russia are, are its soldiers. So Russia is able to sustain many, many-... casualties in its military. If you actually go and interview Russian soldiers, they are probably the bravest soldiers in the world. They are literally not afraid to die for what they believe in. Okay, so th- this is the, um, Russian Third Rome strategy. You can see how it conflicts with the Americans.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay? Now we go to the Israelis. Jerusalem, the capital, it's a mixed system, meaning it's both democracy as well as a theocracy. And it's good in that the Israelis are very creative, but the fundamental weakness is the division within society, where Tel Aviv and Jerusalem don't get along. Okay? So that is the political system of Israel. The grand strategy of Israel is called the Greater Israel Project. So the Israelis believe that the entire Middle East belongs to them, from the Nile to the Euphrates, because that's what it says in the Bible. This is what God, Yahweh, promised Abraham. So their intention is to conquer the entire Middle East, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even parts of Türkiye. Okay? Now let's look at the attack vectors
- 50:00 – 54:30
What Happens When Russia Joins Iran
- PJProfessor Jiang
for the, the, the, the, um, Israelis. The first attack vector is Mossad. Mossad is the most powerful intelligence agency in the world in that it is able to infiltrate and undermine different political systems.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And Mossad, for anyone that doesn't know, is their secret service.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Basically, yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Their spy system.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Second attack vector for the Israelis is the Jewish diaspora, because Jews do business everywhere around the world, and Jewish businessmen work very closely with Mossad, and as such, they have influence in a lot of places that they shouldn't have. And the, um, third, um, attack vector is the Bible. Why? Because if you're a Christian, and there are many Christians who believe this, you believe that the Jews are God's chosen people. So if you look at what's happening in, uh, the Middle East, um, all this conflict between Israel and Palestine, a lot of this conflict is being supported politically in the United States by a group of people called Christian Zionists, and these are Christians. They're not Jews, they're Christians who believe that Israel should achi- achieve the Greater Israel Project because this is part of God's plan. And the pawns for the Israelis are basically everyone else, okay? So a lot of the hardware underpinning the global IT infrastructure, um, is being controlled by the Israelis.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So now we go to the fourth player in this great game, and that's Iran. So Iran, it is a theocracy. People are not afraid to die for what they believe in in Iran. But the weakness is that it can alienate the majority of the population, because only a minority are religious zealots in Iran. Most people just want to live, to live a decent life. So if they feel that these mullahs, the IRGC, are a threat to their peace and prosperity, then they might rise up against the mullahs.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Which is what we've seen over the years, right?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. So, so this is the political system of the, um, Iranians. Their grand strategy is to unite the Muslim world under leadership. They have three attack vectors, okay? The first attack vector are their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Another attack vector, um, is their asymmetrical warfare, meaning using drones and missiles to create as much economic damage as possible.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay, and the third attack vector is their geography or the topog- topography. They are a fortress, so it's almost impossible to, um, in- invade them. All right? So that's their Shia militiamen, these religious zealots who are not afraid to die. Um, th- essentially, they're all... Many of them could be suicide bombers, okay? And, and so for them, this is a religious war. Okay, so now we're seeing how this entire battlefield unfolds across the world. All right? So I've mapped out the grand strategy of these different nation-states who will be involved in World War III. Let's look at our present situation, okay? So what we have so far is that the Russians are occupied, mm, with their army in Ukraine. Okay, this is where their infantry, their artillery is based. At the same time, Russia has something called the shadow fleet, and these are about 1,000, um, tankers that evade sanctions around the world, okay? And this is essentially their navy. America is the most powerful military in the world. They have the most sophisticated air supremacy, as well as the control over the sea lanes, and it tries not to use infantry, uh, because that creates c- civilian casualties, and that pisses everyone off in America, okay? The Israelis are essentially a mercenary army aligned with the American empire, doing the bidding of the American empire. It's fighting in, against Lebanon as well
- 54:30 – 56:30
Ads
- PJProfessor Jiang
as Iran. The Iranians, they, they don't have much of an air force, but they use a lot of drones to threaten. So this is where we are so far. According to grand strategy-We can predict how they will make their moves over the next few months or next few years. America doesn't really care about this war in Iran, because what America wants to do is force the entire world to become dependent on American weapons and resources. And you do that in two ways. The first is you control the strategic choke points of the world, and they include the Strait of Hormuz, but you also wanna control the Strait of Malacca, or over here, because that blocks off East Asia. You also wanna control the Pan- Panama Canal. You also wanna control Greenland. You also wanna control the Strait of, uh, Gibraltar. You can see the American Navy expanding outwards and occupying all these maritime choke points. At the same time, you wanna use your te- tech- technological supremacy, your aerial supremacy, your drones, to destroy the world's critical energy infrastructure. Already we're seeing oil refineries being destroyed throughout the world.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Oil refineries?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Oil refineries, yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So you as, uh, as America, you're trying to deplete the world's energy inve- inventory, so they're forced to beg you for... To supply energy, right? And once this market is created, then you can build infrastructure for Venezuela. You can take over Canada. You can control Mexico. You can take, take, take over Greenland, okay? The Russians have no choice but to respond, because if the Americans are controlling the strategic choke points, your shadow fleet is rendered redundant, useless. So
- 56:30 – 1:02:30
Trump's Third Term Is Already Being Planned
- PJProfessor Jiang
how do you ship your oil around the world? Well, you have two options. I'm just gonna build railways to unite the Eurasian continent, okay? And I, I'm, I'll transport my oil using pipelines and railways. The problem with that is now, is now that you're vulnerable to American aerial supremacy, drone attacks. So you have no choice but to arm your shadow fleet, and now what's gonna happen is this clash in the oceans between Russian shadow f- fleet tankers that are trying to transport oil around the world, and these American destroyers who are trying to capture or destroy these shadow tankers. Now, the advantage that Russia has is that America doesn't have that much naval assets anymore. It used to, but not anymore. The other thing is that the world really needs energy, so you can imagine China financing the militarization of the Russian shadow fleet.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why would, sorry, why would the US try and stop Russian boats?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Because, um, in this global outlook, there are two nations that could provide weapons and resources to the rest of the world.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
They are Russia, and they are America. So America has become dominant. It needs to blockade Russia, and the way you do that is by seizing their shadow fleet tankers.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But if, if that happened, that would be an act of war.
- PJProfessor Jiang
But it's already happening.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What, really?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, it's already happening.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Where?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Iranian tankers have been seized by the Americans, and tankers are being seized in the Caribbean as well by the American Navy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Whose tankers?
- PJProfessor Jiang
I believe they are Russian tankers.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yes, the United States has indeed been seizing tankers linked to Russia. A major escalation occurred earlier this year on January the 7th, 2026, when the US military and Coast Guard intercepted two sanctioned shadow fleet oil tankers. While one was seized directly in the Caribbean, the other involved a dramatic chase that started in the Caribbean and ended in the North Atlantic. US forces captured the sanctioned tanker during a pre-dawn raid directly in the Caribbean Sea. The US military described it as stateless, sanctioned dark fleet vessel, which was engaged in illicit activities. These seizures are part of Operation Southern Spear, a strict enforcement of the US embargo on Venezuelan oil exports. Both vessels were targeted for violating US sanctions by transporting illicit crude oil linked to Venezuela, as well as Iran and Hezbollah.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And as you point out, this is an act of war.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So those were ships that didn't have a country linked to them directly.
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's why they're called shadow fleet tankers.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, but they're essentially Russian.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But they, they were essentially shipping oil outside of the United States that, you know, the United States wouldn't control. Is that kind of-
- PJProfessor Jiang
That, that is correct, yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes. So, um-
- SBSteven Bartlett
So the US said, "Listen, this is our oil. Get lost."
- PJProfessor Jiang
That is correct, yes. Right? So what the United States is doing, it's slowly expanding its global reach, and the way it's doing that is by si- signing treaties with nations that are part of these ch- choke points. So the Strait of Malacca, recently the United States has signed a military cooperation agreement with Indonesia, and with the Strait of Gibraltar, uh, the Americans have signed an agreement now with Morocco, right? So they are looking for the ch- legal framework, the justification to control the world's choke points, which would bring them di- directly in conflict with the Russian shadow fleet.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So at some point, you think the way that the war starts is the US Navy attacks a Russian boat.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So I personally believe that this will be a drawn-out process, that... And, and there's no real concrete flashpoint. Because not only are Russian shadow flanker, sh- shadow, um, fleet tankers being seized, but remember, Russian oil refineries are being destroyed by Ukrainian drones, and the Russians believe that it is NATO that is responsible for the sabotage.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So what, what, when, what do you think the catalyst moment is when this all kicks off?
- PJProfessor Jiang
I think we are already in the catalyst moment. [laughs]
- SBSteven Bartlett
Oh, really?
- 1:02:30 – 1:04:30
The Secret US-China Deal Coming This Year
- PJProfessor Jiang
incite ethnic violence in the country. The second is to block off the Strait of Hormuz and cut off Iranian financing. The third is to strangle Iran and cause the people to rise up, like, against the government, okay? If the Russians... So if things stay the s- stay as they are now, America wins easily. But if Russia were to enter the war on behalf of the Iranians, the first thing that Russia would do is provide Tehran with reinforcement from the Caspian Sea, right? Because the Americans wanna knock out Tehran's capacity to provide food, water, and electricity to its people. But, uh, through the Caspian Sea, the Russians can support the, uh, Iranians. But not only that, and this is much more important, if the Russians were to come in, they could also bring the Chinese into the war on behalf of the Iranians, and the Chinese could use the Belt and Road Initiative, basically the railway system, to reinforce Tehran from, uh, the east. So now you can no longer strangle Tehran because the Russians and the Chinese are reinforcing Tehran. Then what the Russians could do is provide financing to the Iranians. Basically, the Iranian, the Chi- uh, sorry, the Chinese and the Russians can say to Iranians, "Don't worry about financing. We will give you enough, uh, financing for you to continue this war for as long as you want, and we'll use our resources as collateral for this financing." Right? And the third thing, and this is actually the most important, is that Russia could put Iran under its nuclear umbrella, and this would negate the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Israelis and the Americans, if they really felt under pressure, if they're really put in a corner, they could always choose to use tactical nuclear weapons. If the Russians were involved, that negates that option, right? So if
- 1:04:30 – 1:06:24
The National Draft Is Already Here
- PJProfessor Jiang
the Russians get involved in this war, they bring the Chinese, they provide, they provide the resources and the financing to continue this war for as long as it takes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? And now the Americans need to expand this war all in the world to try now to topple the government in Russia because the Russians are the main backers of the Iranians.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And you're predicting that Russia will get involved here?
- PJProfessor Jiang
According to the grand strategy of Russia, the Russians have no choice but to get involved because what will happen is that if you look at this map, if Iran were to be conquered by the Americans or the Israelis, the entire southern flank of the Russians are now exposed to possible attack, and that's, that's something that the Russians would never allow to happen.
- SBSteven Bartlett
The sovereign flank, so what, what, this from underneath.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Basically, right. Right? But not only that, but the Americans already have close relations with Azerbaijan, and they already have bases in Turba- Turkmenistan as well as Uzbekistan, right? So you can see how once the Americans consolidate this area, they can now attack Russia from the south. But what's most important is the issue of global trade, where, like, a counter to America's naval blockade is by creating a Eurasian trade bloc that involves Iran, Russia, and China. If you look at Russia's north-south corridor, right? If you look at China's... If you look at Russia's north-south corridor, it runs through Iran. If y- Russia wants to access the Middle East as well as Africa, it has to go through Iran. Look at China's Belt and Road Initiative. It goes through Iran as well. So by taking out Iran, you've blockaded both Russia and China.
- SBSteven Bartlett
70% of people
- 1:06:24 – 1:09:30
Ads
- SBSteven Bartlett
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- PJProfessor Jiang
The political leadership in Iran believe that they can wait Trump out. So they're waiting for the midterms because they believe that in November, the Democrats will win the midterms, and then they will impeach Trump and basically constrain his capacity to fight wars. And worst case scenario, Trump will be gone in 2028, as you point out. There's certain problems with this. The first major problem is the National Defense Strategy, which we looked at previously. The National Defense Strategy, it is a long-term strategic framework for how America can control the world. And so one possibility
- 1:09:30 – 1:12:00
Israel Will Conquer The Middle East
- PJProfessor Jiang
is that Trump is just creating enough chaos for America to trans- to transition. When the Democrats come to power, if they come to power, they will institutionalize this strategy, and we know this as a possibility because in Trump's first term, he changed America's strategy around the world, and then when Biden came into power, he then institutionalized the strategy, uh, vis-a-vis China, right? So t- it was Trump who launched these, this tariff war against China, and then Biden comes in power and institutionalizes it, right? So I think World War 3, it's a much more long-term, uh, war of attrition, and I don't think that this war, um, will end anytime soon.
- SBSteven Bartlett
You've made a series of new predictions. You've made eight new predictions.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And I have them in this box here.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I'll let you reveal what those predictions are.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. Um, this is one prediction. Okay. Okay, so this is the most controversial prediction, okay? I predict that there will be a US civil war, and Trump will get a third term.
- SBSteven Bartlett
You think Trump will get a third term?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Isn't that constitutionally illegal?
- PJProfessor Jiang
There are things that are unconventional and immoral and wrong and evil and dangerous, and there are certain things that are illegal. Trump getting a third term is not illegal, so let me explain the loophole. What Trump could do is this, okay? There, there are two possibilities. The first possibility is in 2028, he has his son, Don Jr., run as the president, and he runs as the vice president. And then when Don Jr. wins, if he wins, then Don Jr. could abdicate, and Trump would be the president. And in the Constitution, if you read the Constitution very carefully, it doesn't actually prohibit people from doing that. It's not been done in the past, and, like, no sane person with any morality would do this. But that doesn't stop Trump from, from doing this, okay? That's one possibility. Another possibility is that by
- 1:12:00 – 1:14:30
Russia Will Take Odessa And End The War
- PJProfessor Jiang
2028, America is at war with everyone. There's a national draft. The president now has emergency war powers, and so he can s- actually suspend the Constitution and delay the election, which is what Zelensky did in Ukraine. So these are two different possibilities. But I think that given Trump's track record, given his personality, I think he very much, um, wants a third term, and I think that he will do everything possible to get a third term.
- SBSteven Bartlett
He would turn 83 years old in the same year that he finishes his second term.
- PJProfessor Jiang
This is a man who eats McDonald's hamburgers every day. He doesn't really work out. Yet, on the campaign trail, he's able to go to two rallies a day, and in each rally, there's 50,000 people, and he will talk on and on and on. Then at night, when he sh- he should be sleeping, he's either on Truth Social tweeting about the world, or he's calling up reporters and telling him or her some confidential information that he really shouldn't be discussing with the mediaThis is a man who is addicted to attention. This is a man who loves the spotlight. He's lived all his life in the spotlight. For him, death is to be ignored. So given his personality, he would rather die in office than live, uh, peacefully somewhere else.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And of those two strategies that you named where he puts his son in and then becomes president that way or, you know, there's a war breaks out so he has- he says he has to stay in office, of those two strategies, which one do you think he's more likely to deploy?
- PJProfessor Jiang
I actually think that given his narcissism, he would prefer the first strategy.
- SBSteven Bartlett
His putting his son in.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Because, because that shows himself and the world that America loves him.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. And it could also be JD Vance or someone else, right? It doesn't have to be his son necessarily.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Trump does not trust anyone. Trump has never had a prot- protege. In fact, everyone that's really worked for Trump has been kind of screwed
- 1:14:30 – 1:20:00
North Korea's Move On Seoul
- PJProfessor Jiang
over by him.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Do you not think that if his son decided to run and then announced that the vice president was his dad, do you not think that there would be such a huge backlash in the United States that his son wouldn't win?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Well, I think there's a possibility that they figure out how to cheat in 2028. Right.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Oh, as in actually cheat at the election.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. So-
- SBSteven Bartlett
At the poll booth.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. So let's go into Trump's mind. All right? His, his, his psychology. In his mind, he won in 2020. The people voted for him, but the Democrats stole the election with mail-in ballots and by rigging the election machines. Okay? He, in his mind, he literally believes that. So in his mind, he believes that this is actually his third term and the people and the government, they owe him a second term, which is what he wants now. He wants, uh, compensation for having the election stolen from him in 2020.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I find it really, um, really implausible to think that Trump would run and f- would run for a third term.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So again, this is a prediction.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Yeah.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And it is a test of the validity of my theoretical framework.
- SBSteven Bartlett
I was looking at some of the, the constitutions and, uh, the laws, and it says that the 22nd Amendment explicitly states, "No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice." Some theorists have tried to argue that since the amendment says elected, a person might be able to serve a third term if they were appointed to succeed to the role.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly.
- SBSteven Bartlett
If they were appointed or succeeded to the role, e.g. by being vice president first. Legal scholars and the Judicial Committee almost universally reject this. The 12th Amendment requires that anyone serving as vice president must be eligible to be president. Since a two-term president is ineligible to be elected again, they're legally barred from being vice president.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So the point is the c- there's nothing explicit in the Constitution that bars someone from having a third term.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And there's debate in the legal community about the spirit of the 22nd Amendment.
- SBSteven Bartlett
It would go to the Supreme Court, right?
- PJProfessor Jiang
And the Supreme Court is controlled right now by the conservatives. Trump, Trump appointed three of the nine justices, and there's a possibility he gets a fourth later in the year.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Right.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So it's entirely up to Supreme Court whether or not he can run. And again, there's nothing explicit in the Constitution that forbids him from running as a vice president.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. What's your next prediction?
- PJProfessor Jiang
The, my second prediction is there'll be a grand bargain between the United States and China.
- SBSteven Bartlett
What does that mean?
- PJProfessor Jiang
It means that people expect that the United States and China will go to war at some point over Taiwan. It means, a lot of people expect that China wants to challenge American hegemony and replace America as the global superpower. But China does not want to do that. China's probably happy Ame- with America being the world's hegemon because you have to invest so much of your resources into fighting these wars that back up your, your nation. China, China doesn't want to fight these wars. So what China is going to do is try to triangulate between Russia and the United States. This is what happened during the Cold War when China was not actually on the side of the Soviet Union. China was part of the non-aligned community, and that's what China's going to strive for in World War III, where China may help out Iran, may provide financing for Russia, but it's also going to strike deals with the United States as well.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay? So I think that Trump and President Xi are supposed to meet at least three times, possibly four times this year. Only this year. The first will be, uh, in mid-May in Beijing, and I think that they will start a process in which China and America come to an arrangement that benefits both economically. What does America want? America wants China to continue to buy US treasuries in order to finance the American debt. What does China want? China wants energy, resources from the Western Hemisphere, and it wants to access the American market.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
So there's no reason why China and America cannot come to a, an arrangement that benefits both, and Trump is very much a transactional character.
- SBSteven Bartlett
And, well, what will that mean for the world?
- 1:20:00 – 1:25:30
What The Average Person Should Do
- SBSteven Bartlett
you're m- obliged to go and fight
- PJProfessor Jiang
Exactly. Okay. So the logic is this. America doesn't really care if Iran is a failure or not. That's not really part of the American grand strategy. Iran right now, it's a perfect pretext for America to expand outwards and establish maritime choke points around the world, and to force the world to buy American energy. So this war in Iran benefits America tremendously, so why not have it go on for a long, long time? In order to make sure this war goes on for a long time, you need ground troops, and you need a lot of ground troops, and that's why you need a national draft
- SBSteven Bartlett
So what would a national draft look like in the United States? Everyone between the age of 18 and 25 has to sign up to the army?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. So most people don't appreciate this, but America has always had a, a draft. But for the longest time, it didn't really care whether or not you actually signed up for the draft. And starting December, participation in the draft will be automatic, meaning that if you are between 18 to 24 Ameri- in America and you're male, you'll be automatically put into the draft system
- SBSteven Bartlett
From when?
- PJProfessor Jiang
I think from December
- SBSteven Bartlett
This year?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes. That, that is correct. Yes
- SBSteven Bartlett
So between the age of 18 and 25 you think... And what does that, what does that really mean? Well, I've not, not really experienced that in my lifetime. So it means that if you're between the age of 18 and 24, either gender?
- PJProfessor Jiang
No, male
- SBSteven Bartlett
Male, then you have to sign up for the army
- PJProfessor Jiang
No, you are already put into a draft
- SBSteven Bartlett
Oh, you're already... Okay, but you might be called upon
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's right. It's a lottery system
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right. And, uh, this created a lot of backlash during the Vietnam era, and so they sort of toned it down. But starting December, they just passed a law that says that starting December, um, you will be automatically registered for-
- SBSteven Bartlett
They, they-
- PJProfessor Jiang
... for the-
- SBSteven Bartlett
They've passed a law?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, they have. Well, in theory, Congress first need, needs to declare war [chuckles]
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay, fine
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? That's a first step. And Congress has not actually declared war yet
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay. So you think there'll be a draft, and you think this will, this war in Iran's gonna trickle on for-
- PJProfessor Jiang
A long time
- SBSteven Bartlett
How long? 10, 20 years like Afghanistan or?
- PJProfessor Jiang
I don't see it stopping
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yeah
- SBSteven Bartlett
What's next in your prediction box?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. Okay, this is pretty bad. The world will move towards an AI surveillance state
- 1:25:30 – 1:42:00
Who Really Controls Reality
- PJProfessor Jiang
if I be- ever became famous in ChinaThen they would obviously want to control me in order to better influence other people
- SBSteven Bartlett
Hmm. What's your next prediction?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Israel will achieve the Greater Israel Project
- SBSteven Bartlett
So you think Israel are gonna conquer the Middle East?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Israel has essentially already conquered the Middle East. The only force in their way right now is America. So once America leaves the Middle East, which I expect to happen, then Israel will absorb CENTCOM, which is the, um, Central Command, the American military bases in the Middle East, and they will achieve the Greater Israel Project. There's no other power in the Middle East that can withstand the might and power of Israel
- SBSteven Bartlett
And do you have a timeline for this?
- PJProfessor Jiang
The moment America quits this war against Iran, the moment that America leaves the Middle East, Israel will achieve the Greater Israel Project. And what's really interesting right now is that Israel's trying to drag this war out for as long as possible because they see this war as a way to destroy all its major enemies in the, um, Middle East. You know, the Israelis have already said this. After Iran, Turkey is next
- SBSteven Bartlett
Turkey. Hmm
- PJProfessor Jiang
Turkey is next. This war is already destroying Saudi Arabia and the GCC, right? So the last opponent is Turkey. Once Turkey is brought into this war, then Israel will achieve the Greater Israel Project
- SBSteven Bartlett
And the Greater Israel Project covers all of this region here from Turkey, Egypt, Yemen, Amman
- PJProfessor Jiang
So the Greater Israel Project is like this, okay? So it goes from the Nile in Egypt to the Euphrates in Iraq, and it covers part of Türkiye, of Syria, of Lebanon, of Jordan, and parts of Saudi Arabia, which also includes Mecca and Medina
- SBSteven Bartlett
What is your next prediction?
- PJProfessor Jiang
NATO and Russia will fight for Odessa
- SBSteven Bartlett
Odessa. What's Odessa?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. So if you look at the, uh, Ukraine front lines, right now Russia is preoccupied in trying to control, uh, the Donbas, which is basically Eastern Ukraine. Why Russia is doing this is that Eastern Ukraine has historically been part of Russia, therefore most people there speak Russian or are, are ethnically Russian. The Donbas is also the agricultural and industrial heartland of Ukraine. So if Russia were to control East- Eastern Ukraine, it doesn't really need Western Ukraine, and then Western Ukraine would basically become a rump state. It'd be useless.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm
- PJProfessor Jiang
Right? So the last piece to this puzzle would be Odessa, which sits on the Black Sea. The reason why you want Odessa is that it's the major port, and once you control Odessa, you basically block off Ukraine from the Black Sea. You have complete control ov- over the Black Sea
- SBSteven Bartlett
The Black Sea. Is that the Black Sea?
- PJProfessor Jiang
This is the Black Sea, and this is Odessa right here. Yes
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay, so you're saying that U- Russia will take, take Odessa
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's correct
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay, so they'll control the Black Sea
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's right. But NATO recognizes that if Odessa falls to the Russians, the war is over, and Russia will have achieved all its major strategic objectives
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why is the war over?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Because Russia doesn't want to continue on after Odessa.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay
- PJProfessor Jiang
It doesn't need-
- SBSteven Bartlett
That's what it wants
- PJProfessor Jiang
... the rest of U- of Ukraine. Right
- SBSteven Bartlett
Why, what does it get from taking Odessa?
- 1:42:00 – 2:11:08
Why His Wife Saved His Life
- SBSteven Bartlett
[paper rustles] Professor, what's the most important thing we haven't talked about that we should have talked about?
- PJProfessor Jiang
So let's talk about the nature of reality. To explain the nature of reality, um, I'm going to explain Plato's Allegory of the Cave, which he talked about in his book The Republic, right, exactly.
- SBSteven Bartlett
This book?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, The Republic, okay? One of the masterpieces of Greek civilization as well as Western civilization. All right, so this is how Plato explains the nature of reality. And so he uses a metaphor called the cave. So I want you to imagine a dark cavern that is huge.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And in this cavern there are hundreds of people lined up together and they're all sitting in a row and this goes on for, you know, miles and miles, just thousands of people and they are chained to the ground and their necks are shackled so they can't actually move and all they can do is stare in front of them at a giant wall that's empty. Okay? Now behind these people, and again they can't, they can't see behind them, right? It's a great fire. Along the, alongside this fire are people, okay? We don't know who they are. Pla- Plato never explains who these people are. They take puppets and they project these puppets off the fire onto the wall. Okay? And when people see these shadows they think that this is realityAnd as such, they begin to create narratives to explain this reality. They create language. They give shadows names. They explain where these shadows come from. They create religion. Then these people decide to specialize. So some people who are priests who explain this new religion. There's some people who are poets that talk about the beauty of these shadows. And then you have teachers who teach about the shadows to children. And then over time, what happens is that these people fall in love with this reality, so that they are addicted to it. So if anyone comes along and says, "Hey, guys. Why don't you look behind you and see it's all just a farce," these people will be so angry that they kill this person. All right? So I'm not sure if you've ever watched a Korean drama. Have, have, have you watched a Korean TV drama?
- SBSteven Bartlett
Not really, no.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay. All right. So unfortunately, I have, and these things go on for, like, thousand of hours.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And for the first 10 hours, you're disgusted by the plot, uh, because it makes no sense. But by sometime be- by, by the 20th hour, you can't stop watching it.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
All right? The same situation here, where it's a s- it's a silly television drama. It's all fake. But once people watch too much of it, they want it to be true. Okay? And that's the nature of reality that we live in, all right? So certain things to remember is that what creates this reality are not the people in charge. What creates this reality is our imagination. Okay. So the first thing to appreciate is that everything is a hu- hallucination, and this is something that neuroscientists have confirmed. So what we're gonna do is we're going to take Plato's Allegory of the Cave, the framework, and then apply it to our reality to understand how it's created.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
Okay? So in the first layer, you need a power, a force, to put people in chains, right? And this is what we call the military-industrial complex of America as well as the empire. So going back to this example, it's the layer that puts the people into chains. But now, the second step is you need people to create the reality, to direct people's attention, to create the game, and this, these people are the financial elite, the Bank of International Settlements based in Basel. So what do they do? These people are the ones who set the c- they exchange currency rates.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Mm-hmm.
- PJProfessor Jiang
And they also allow for seamless financial transactions, the SWIFT system, basically. Then Wall Street and the City of London were the financiers. And then you have the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve System, because the Federal Reserve are the people who print money. Okay. Now, once you create the rules of the game, you need to create the game itself, which is the global economy, right? Global economy. And ob- obviously, this is a pretty vast system that encompasses everything, okay? Now you have to explain to people how the global economy works, and you cannot tell people, "Oh, really, there are these secret people working behind the scenes that are projecting shadows onto a wall." So what you do is you create multilateral organizations that pretend to control the global economy, and they are the World Bank, the United Nations, WTO. You make people believe that this is all being controlled impartially for our benefit. Now you have to convince people that this system is legitimate, that what you're actually seeing, the shadows on the wall, they're real, and that's why you need the media. That's why you need culture such as Hollywood, movies, basically, and you need education, school system. Okay? These are the people w- who are all prisoners, who have become leaders of the prisoners, and who are helping them understand the shadows on the wall.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So am I in the media?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes, you are.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Am I?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
So am I... What am I doing? Where... Am I one of the people in the fire controlling the narrative? Is that what-
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes. Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
But how? But I, I'm not owned by anybody.
- PJProfessor Jiang
That's what you think. [laughs]
- SBSteven Bartlett
Oh, really?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Yes.
- SBSteven Bartlett
Then who, who am I owned by?
- PJProfessor Jiang
Ultimately, it's the people who control the fire that are in charge, right? So ultimately, it's these people, the second layer-
- SBSteven Bartlett
Okay
- PJProfessor Jiang
... the game masters, the financial elite that control everything.
Episode duration: 2:11:09
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