Konstantin Kisin: Why the West can't enforce its own rules

1. 0:00 – 2:51

   Intro

   1. SBSteven Bartlett0:00

      There's mention of Greenland being invaded by the United States. There's the situation in Iran. Trump has snatched Maduro from Venezuela. There's talk of China taking back Taiwan. What the hell is going on?

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin0:11

      Well, what you're seeing is the West becoming weaker and emboldening our enemies, and the final collapse of a shared myth that we were living in a structured world where everything is done according to the rules. That is now gone, and Trump is acting in recognition of that reality, saying, "We are not going to play by the fake rules anymore that no one else is playing by anyway."

   3. SBSteven Bartlett0:31

      Is there a risk with this strategy?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin0:33

      Of course, and we can talk about the reasons for it. I think it's really important.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett0:36

      The floor is yours.

   6. SBSteven Bartlett0:37

      Konstantin Kisin is one of the sharpest voices in political commentary right now. He's here to unpack the current geopolitical landscape and what could be done to salvage the West before it's too late.

   7. KKKonstantin Kisin0:49

      So Russia invading Ukraine was not an accident. It was a consequence of the fact that Putin felt this was the moment to test the waters. Can we now do the things we've always wanted to do? Because the West lost its focus and sense of purpose. So, for example, I don't know if you know this, Europe is twelve percent of the world's population, twenty-five percent of the world's GDP, and sixty percent of the world's welfare spending. Germany destroyed its nuclear facilities, thereby making itself reliant on Russian gas. And in Britain, we've destroyed our manufacturing, which is now produced elsewhere. And we've run down our armed forces because we have felt so safe and so comfortable because there's been no consequence. Well, the consequences are here. Per person, we have less money today than we did twenty years ago. We have the highest tax burden in peacetime history. We're driving out the entrepreneurs, and we've already seen a decline in our power in the world and our influence in the world. That's the big danger. But there is an opportunity to turn things around if we can make these big decisions.

   8. SBSteven Bartlett1:43

      But are you hopeful? [music] Listen, my, my team gave me a script that they asked me to read, but I'm just gonna ask you, um, in the nicest way I possibly can. Thank you, first and foremost, for choosing to subscribe to this channel. It is, um... It's been one of the most incredible, crazy years of my life. I never could have imagined. I had so many dreams in my life, but this was not one of them. And the very fact that these conversations have resonated with you, and you've given me so much feedback, is something I will always be appreciative of, and I almost carry a weight, a sort of burden of, uh, responsibility to pay you back. And the favor I would like to ask from you today is to subscribe to the channel, if you, um, would be so obliged. It's completely free to do that. Roughly about forty-seven percent of you that listen to this channel frequently currently don't subscribe to this channel. So if you're one of those people, please come and join us. Hit the subscribe button. It's the single free thing you can do to make this channel better, and every subscriber sort of pays into this show and allows us to do things bigger and better and to push ourselves even more. And I will not let you down if you hit the subscribe button, I promise you, and if I do, please do unsubscribe, but I promise I won't. Thank you. [music]

2. 2:51 – 8:32

   What’s Really Going On in the World Right Now?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett2:51

      Konstantin, there is so much going on in the world right now that it is incredibly confusing to somebody like me, who doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about geopolitics or the bigger picture. I'm very, very heads down, as I imagine a lot of people in my audience are. We kind of get on with our lives, but every time we look up at the news, there's Trump has snatched M- Maduro from Venezuela. There's the war with Russia and Ukraine. There's something going on with Iran. There's mention of Greenland being invaded by the United States. There's talk of China taking back Taiwan. I wanted to speak to you today to understand your perspective on the bigger picture here.

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin3:29

      Right.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett3:29

      What the hell is going on?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin3:31

      Well, what you're seeing is the, the final collapse of what people described as the post-World War II order, which then became the post-Soviet collapse order. So if you think about nineteen forty-five, World War II finishes, and the Cold War begins. So you go from World War II to two big, major players in the world competing for dominance. And that lasts until nineteen ninety-one, when the Soviet Union collapses, at which point you get the unipolar world, in which there's only one hegemony, only one country that's really setting the terms of what's happening in the world. The West lost its focus and its sense of purpose in nineteen ninety-one because we were like, "Well, we, we defeated our great rival, communism, Soviet, Russia, et cetera," and then we kind of didn't really know what to do, and we took our eye off the ball. And what's happening now is that entire framework that we have had since World War II is disintegrating very rapidly. This is why, you know, i- in the, in light of recent events and the, the Maduro situation, you hear a lot of people talk about international law. International law was... I don't know if you've, you've ever had N- uh, you well know Harari on your show?

   5. SBSteven Bartlett4:42

      I have, yeah.

   6. KKKonstantin Kisin4:42

      He, he wrote a book, a book called Sapiens, in which he talks about w- the fact that almost everything that we live in, the world in, in which we exist, is a kind of shared myth that we have. And laws and money and all these things, they are agreements that we have between us to make things real that are not real. Money isn't real. That piece of paper has no value in your pocket, really, outside of the fact that other people have got together and agreed that it's money, right? Well, international law really was that, but even weaker than that, because if you think about what a law is, a law is something that has to be backed by not only the consent of the people who are involved, but also, ultimately, it's about the use of force, the legitimate use of force. Now, for international law, there's never been anything that could enforce that law other than the most powerful country in the world, right? So if China invades Taiwan, no one's gonna do anything about it because there is no overarching authority with the military to be able to do anything about it. And so that shared fiction that we had, which we were living in a structured world in which-... everything is done according to the rules, the rules-based order, you might have heard that term being used. That is now gone, and Trump is acting in recognition of that reality, and he's saying: "Well, given that it's sort of every man for himself now, I'm gonna do what's in the interest of the United States." Is it in the interest of the United States, for example, to have an openly hostile leader of a country close to the US, which is so destabilized that seven million people have fled as refugees?

   7. SBSteven Bartlett6:21

      Venezuela.

   8. KKKonstantin Kisin6:21

      Venezuela. Is it in our interest to have this person cozying up to Russia and China? Is it in our interest to allow him to have Hezbollah training camps on the island of Margarita? Is it in our interest-- it's, it's going back to the Monroe Doctrine, the idea that America does not allow foreign nations to meddle in its backyard, so to speak. And so what he's doing now is going: "Well, look, this is the world we live in. I'm gonna do what's best for my country," and I think that's what you're seeing.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett6:48

      Is there a risk with this strategy?

   10. KKKonstantin Kisin6:50

       Of course. There's a risk with every strategy. Of course, there's a risk with this strategy. There was a big risk inevitably with this strategy, and I think, uh, you know, as I talked about in my book, the, the West becoming weaker and emboldening our enemies, which is what we have done for a long time now, is creating an environment where we are opening ourselves up to challenge from other forces. Russia invading Ukraine was not an accident. It was not an accident. It was a consequence of the fact that Putin and other people in his leadership team felt this was the moment to test the waters. Can we now do the things we've always wanted to do?

   11. SBSteven Bartlett7:27

       And they thought they could do that under Biden, in your view?

   12. KKKonstantin Kisin7:29

       Yes, but i- see, I wouldn't personalize it down to that level. I think far too many people get carried away with, you know, Republican, Democrat, left, right, Biden, Trump. It's an ongoing process that's been going on for decades, and the culmination of it was first the invasion of Ukraine, then October 7th. October 7th was not an accident either. Hamas, backed by Iran, felt that this was their moment to act because, again, is the West going to be able to respond morally, militarily, and in other ways, powerfully to that? They felt that they were able to test it. The fact that China now is openly talking about taking Taiwan is, again, another symptom of this same thing. So the risk is there, and of course, the risk as well is that, you know, the, the crumbling Western alliance, we can talk about the reasons for it. I think it's really important, too, particularly we're recording this in Britain and, and in Europe more broadly. I think that's an important conversation. The Western alliance is falling apart, um, and that is always gonna be a risk. It's a particularly big risk for Europe, I feel.

   13. SBSteven Bartlett8:31

       How much of this--

3. 8:32 – 13:17

   How Much of This Chaos Links Back to Nuclear Weapons?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett8:32

      and before we go into the details and just catch up on a few things you said there, how much of this is linked to nuclear weapons? Because I was thinking, I, I can't really... All of these superpowers are going for countries that aren't armed with nuclear weapons.

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin8:44

      Mm.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett8:44

      And it all-- it somewhat feels to me that the reason why the US wouldn't get involved if China took Taiwan is 'cause they have nukes, and the reason why the US is a little bit intimidated by Russia is 'cause they have nukes. So is it really the world is splitting into nuclear powers, and anyone with nukes can do what the fuck they want because they can basically wipe out planet Earth if they get angry?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin9:06

      And that has always been the case, except we've been constrained by the framework of the rules-based order, but that got taken apart, and this is where I think the West, and the United States including, needs to take responsibility because the, the war in Afghanistan, and Iraq even more so, completely undermined our moral credibility. You know, how can you say, well, Russia isn't allowed to invade Ukraine if you go around invading countries on a whim, making up excuses and reasons to do that? So we have eroded our moral authority, and we've also eroded our military strength and the potential that we have to inflict damage on people who misbehave, so to speak. So both of those things have come together.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett9:47

      It seems so crazy to me that in my lifetime, I'm, I'm seeing-- 'cause it's really never happened in the thirty-three years that I've been alive, I'm hearing a US president talk about kidnapping another president and then going in and taking the oil, and then, "Do you know what? We might take Greenland as well.

   6. KKKonstantin Kisin10:02

      Mm.

   7. SBSteven Bartlett10:03

      We might have that big country over there as well, even though it belongs to a NATO ally, ally in Denmark."

   8. KKKonstantin Kisin10:07

      Wow.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett10:08

      It, it feels like something has fundamentally changed.

   10. KKKonstantin Kisin10:11

       It has.

   11. SBSteven Bartlett10:11

       And I'm scared of the precedents this is gonna set, because do we then all just get to start taking countries we want?

   12. KKKonstantin Kisin10:17

       Well, this is what happens when there is a, a, a, a shifting of the balance of power. This is why I always said maintaining the unipolar moment as it was, and not allowing the West to weaken itself, was a really important thing. Because the moment you have a power vacuum, you always have a power struggle. Mexico is a very good example of this. If you look at what's been happening, there's been a, a gigantic drug war in Mexico for the last twenty years because there are different cartels vying for power, and the moment you take out the leader of one cartel or something happens, there's a bloodbath. Because this is what happens when the central authority, the central power, the, the, the current system breaks down. You inevitably end up in a much more violent, much more unstable, much more unpredictable place. And all Trump really is doing is reflecting the reality that has been already there for years, except he's reflecting it in American foreign policy. He's saying: "Well, look, if Russia is going to do what it wants to do, and we can't stop them, and if China is gonna do what they wanna do, and we can't stop them, well, we've got to do what we've got to do, and no one's gonna stop us," and that's the world you've ended up in. Uh, and by the way, just on the nuclear point, I think it's important to say you're a hundred percent right, and this is one of the things I've always said about not supporting Ukraine properly, which we haven't done. We have not supported them enough to be able to actually fully repel the aggression from Russia, is it would inevitably lead to lots of other small countries pursuing nuclear weapons 'cause it is the only guarantee of security in this world. It-- that is a huge danger for the world in terms of nuclear proliferation because if the precedent is, like you say-... the people with nuclear weapons can do what they want, and they can never be attacked, and the people with no nuclear weapons are vulnerable and weak, what would be the most rational thing for you to do if you're a smaller country? That's the big danger.

   13. SBSteven Bartlett12:07

       'Cause y- you know, you, you were talking about a unipolar world and a multipolar world, but I wonder if the-- it's gonna be-- How many nuclear powers are there? There's, like, nine or, or ten?

   14. KKKonstantin Kisin12:15

       Mm.

   15. SBSteven Bartlett12:16

       If the world is actually gonna split into these ten nuclear powers, and these ten nuclear powers can basically do what they want.

   16. KKKonstantin Kisin12:22

       Well, nuclear powers are different. I don't, I don't see Pakistan likely to be rampaging through its neighbors, not least 'cause, uh, they're all, [chuckles] they're all nuclear powers themselves. Uh, I think you're, you're talking about Russia, China, and the US primarily. I don't see Britain, you know, re-invading France, although that's something obviously I'm in favor of.

   17. SBSteven Bartlett12:38

       If Pakistan decided to take a neighboring country, though-

   18. KKKonstantin Kisin12:41

       Yeah

   19. SBSteven Bartlett12:41

       ... nobody can really come for them because-

   20. KKKonstantin Kisin12:43

       Uh-

   21. SBSteven Bartlett12:43

       ... economic-

   22. KKKonstantin Kisin12:44

       Having one nuke is not the same as having a gigantic nuclear arsenal. I think Pakistan is relatively constrained in its behavior, but the big superpowers are not so. And by the way, retaking France was a joke. I just wondered if that clicked. [chuckles]

   23. SBSteven Bartlett12:58

       [chuckles] Um, there's eight-- there's nine nuclear powers.

   24. KKKonstantin Kisin13:01

       Yeah.

   25. SBSteven Bartlett13:01

       United States, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, although I don't think they admit it.

   26. KKKonstantin Kisin13:07

       Yeah. Israel's policy on nuclear weapons is very funny. Do you know what their official position is? "We don't have nuclear weapons, but if the State of Israel is at risk of being destroyed, we will

4. 13:17 – 19:41

   Why Every Global Superpower Is Acting Alone

   1. KKKonstantin Kisin13:17

      definitely use them." [laughing]

   2. SBSteven Bartlett13:20

      [laughing] So how did we get here? What are, what are the factors at play that brought us to this particular situation? You talked about the crumbling of the Western alliance and other things.

   3. KKKonstantin Kisin13:27

      Mm.

   4. SBSteven Bartlett13:27

      What, what do we need to know about what happened for us to get to this state where it seems like it's every big power for themself?

   5. KKKonstantin Kisin13:34

      Well, partly, we've already talked about it. So it's, it's after ninety-one, in particular, the West loses its-- not only its sense of purpose, but it loses its, its, uh, sense of danger and sense of risk, so we get very comfortable. I don't know if you know this, uh, Europe is twelve percent of the world's population, twenty-five percent of the world's GDP, and sixty percent of the world's welfare spending.

   6. SBSteven Bartlett13:56

      Hmm. Wow!

   7. KKKonstantin Kisin13:57

      So if you do that, that is a sign that you've got very comfortable. You've got very lazy. You have lost the ability to realize you live in a dangerous world. It's... You know, this is a bit of a sidetrack, but it is an important addendum to this conversation. This is why European countries have pursued economic suicide that we call net zero as vigorously as we have. Because we have felt so safe and so comfortable, we've engaged in all this luxury, uh, obsessions, to the point where, as you know, Germany destroyed its nuclear facilities, uh, thereby making itself reliant on Russian gas, so that when Russia invaded Ukraine, the Germans opened-- The, the first thing that they said is: "Oh, we were gonna support Ukraine. We're gonna give them five thousand helmets." Right? Because they were so dependent on Russian gas, because they refused to produce their own energy. This is exactly the same thing we've done in Britain. Britain has the highest industrial electricity prices in the world, in the developed world, which means we basically destroyed all our manufacturing industry, which is now produced elsewhere. We're getting to the point where we can't make our own virgin steel. Steel is kind of important if you wanna have a military, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So in Europe, in particular, this has happened because we've just felt so safe and so comfortable, and also so rudderless, that we've been able to engage in all these loony ideas because there's been no consequence. Well, the consequences are here.

   8. SBSteven Bartlett15:22

      Where does Britain and Europe sit in the sort of rankings of importance in the world and power?

   9. KKKonstantin Kisin15:28

      It's plummeting. Uh, y- I mean, look at the, the-- Trump's, uh, twelve-day war in Iran, destroying Iran's nuclear facilities. No one even asks the British what we thought about it anymore, and that's not because... You know, a lot of people like to say, "Oh, you know, the Americans, they hate the British." Americans love Britain. As you know, you live in America now. Y- you have a British accent. Pe- I'm sure people come up to you all the time and talk to you about their connections with our country, the shared history, all of that stuff. The problem is, we have made ourselves irrelevant because everything that Trump is looking at is strength, right? Is Britain strong now in the world? No. Is Europe strong now in the world? No. And so, if you're not strong, you will not be taken seriously, and unfortunately, because of what our leaders have done over successive, and it's left, right, every political party that we have that's been in power, they have overseen a decline in our status in the world, in our power in the world, in our influence in the world, to the point now where the Americans are looking at Europe, and they're going: "Why would we be allied with people who are not useful to us?" An alliance is kind of like a marriage. Both people have to bring something to the table. What do we bring to the table from an American perspective?

   10. SBSteven Bartlett16:38

       This is a fairly new thing, isn't it? Because I remember growing up, I'd repeatedly hear the Prime Minister of the UK talking about how he'd spoken to his US counterpart, and they had made a decision. And then in-- even with the Venezuela situation, I think Keir Starmer came out the next day and said, [chuckles] like, "I had no idea this was happening."

   11. KKKonstantin Kisin16:54

       Of course, but why would you consult with people who don't matter?

   12. SBSteven Bartlett16:57

       Why don't we matter?

   13. KKKonstantin Kisin16:58

       We don't matter because we have nothing to bring to the table. We don't-- Despite the, the extremely high level of professionalism, our technological superiority, the courage of our soldiers and our sailors and our airmen, and despite the h- immense military tradition Britain has, we have cut-- I mean, our debt interest repayments annually are one point five times, heading towards being twice our defense budget. We spent more on paying off the debt, the national debt, every year than we spend on defense.

   14. SBSteven Bartlett17:30

       How did the UK get here?

   15. KKKonstantin Kisin17:31

       Well, our, our debt to GDP is over one hundred percent. We keep borrowing money. Y- we talked about the disproportionate amount of welfare spending and social spending and so on. We got here by forgetting that we live in the real world and engaging in lots of luxury beliefs about what we ought to do. Uh, so we have the highest tax burden in peacetime history in this country.... and we do that not because we wanna have a robust military or to do other things like that. We do it so that we can continue to pay ourselves money we don't have, borrowing it from our children and our grandchildren, and this is the case across Europe, really. America also has a high level of debt, but they have a growing economy, unlike ours. Britain, uh, Britain's GDP per capita is lower today than it was in two thousand and six. We have, per capita, which is what matters, per person, we m- have less money today than we did twenty years ago. So our economy's declined, we've destroyed our manufacturing, we've run down our armed forces, and also, I mean, look, President Trump, I think is fair to say, is quite sensitive about what people say about him. We have a government now that very imprudently and unwisely spent the time they were in opposition shitting on him on a daily basis. David Lammy, if you take-- who's our foreign secretary, if you take some of his comments about President Trump, they're just deeply irresponsible, whatever you think about the rights and wrongs of what he said. A, a- someone who has the potential to be this country's foreign secretary, in charge of our relationship with the United States, cannot be so imprudent as to make those kinds of comments. And then you're going, "Well, you've just been calling this guy every name under the sun, and now you wanna, you wanna be relevant? You wanna be taken seriously, you wanna be engaged with, as he makes huge decisions about geopolitics?" Actions have consequences, uh, and the actions we have been taken have produced the consequences that we've got. Now, look, I am not all doom and gloom about that. If we change our strategy, and if we change our behavior, we can change the pro- the, the, the end product of that. We can do that, but that's gonna require a massive readjustment.

   16. SBSteven Bartlett19:40

       With the current

5. 19:41 – 20:45

   Where Is the UK Headed If This Keeps Up?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett19:41

      direction of travel-

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin19:42

      Mm.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett19:42

      -where does the UK end up?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin19:43

      We're already there. We're irrelevant. We are irrelevant. When these-- like you said, Venezuela happens, no one cares about us. When Iran gets bombed, no one cares about us. The, uh, all the future big decisions about geopolitics are gonna be made without Britain even being considered because it's gonna be made by the major powers, of which Britain is no longer one.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett20:05

      You choose to live in the UK-

   6. KKKonstantin Kisin20:06

      Mm.

   7. SBSteven Bartlett20:07

      -despite your views that the UK is, uh, a bit of a sinking ship, I guess.

   8. KKKonstantin Kisin20:11

      Because of my views, actually.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett20:14

      Because of your views?

   10. KKKonstantin Kisin20:14

       Yeah. Like, look, you've moved to the United States, which I'm grateful for 'cause it's made us the biggest UK podcast in, in our space. I'm-- I appreciate that. But as you can imagine, we get offers to do the same i, in all sorts of different ways, and we could have done the same. I love this country. It-- I'm very grateful to, and I feel to stay and fight for it and to articulate my views and try and persuade people to my point of view so that we can have a British renaissance, so that we can have a British recovery, is my duty for as long as I can do that, and if at some point, you know, I feel it's completely futile, which I do not, um-

6. 20:45 – 24:20

   Can the UK Still Make a Comeback?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett20:45

      So you're hopeful?

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin20:46

      I'm not despondent to the point of giving up, is where I am.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett20:49

      Are you hopeful?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin20:50

      No, no, but, but I'm also not at the point where I feel it's futile. I think there is, there is an opportunity to turn things around if, if everything comes together, and we're very fortunate. Uh, and that's what I'm tr- hopefully trying to contribute to.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett21:06

      Through history, when companies pursue the strategy that the UK is currently pursuing-

   6. KKKonstantin Kisin21:09

      Mm

   7. SBSteven Bartlett21:10

      ... where did, where does it end up economically?

   8. KKKonstantin Kisin21:13

      Well, Steven, you're the business guy. You tell me.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett21:15

      No, but I don't, I'm not-- I don't have the greatest view of history, and so I'm, I'm wondering if there's-- 'cause, you know, in the UK, through... I've, I was born thirty-three years ago in Botswana, and I moved to the UK when I was young, and, um, I've always known the UK to be important and consequential-

   10. KKKonstantin Kisin21:29

       It should be

   11. SBSteven Bartlett21:29

       ... and the, the economy to be, you know, much better than where I'm from in Botswana. So it, it's, it's almost inconceivable for a, a British person of my age to wish to think that the UK could ever not be that-

   12. KKKonstantin Kisin21:40

       Yes

   13. SBSteven Bartlett21:40

       ... 'cause it's always been-

   14. KKKonstantin Kisin21:41

       Yes

   15. SBSteven Bartlett21:41

       -in my lifetime, anyway.

   16. KKKonstantin Kisin21:42

       Yes, but that is, in many ways, and I'm not pinning the blame on you, obviously, but that is in many ways how we got here. Because what we thought collectively was, well, look, no matter what we do, we're always gonna be Great Britain. We're gonna have a great economy, we're gonna have a strong military, we're gonna have a this, we're gonna have influence in the world, and then we started doing lots of stupid shit, and that's how we've ended up in the place that we've ended up. So this country has every potential to be great. The people are incredible, the level of education, uh, the scientific and technological advances that this country has produced. The cultural, look at the greatest bands in human history, like, half of them are British. Comedians, I mean, 'cause stand-up comedy is not a, a, a British invention. It was actually invented in America. But look at some of the greatest comedians in human history. Again, lots and lots of British people, so culturally, scientifically, technologically, economically, we have the potential. We have to have the correct leadership and the right strategy, and those two things have been lacking for a long time. That's how we've ended up here. Can we turn it around? It's gonna be very, very, very difficult, but I-- but we've gotta try.

   17. SBSteven Bartlett22:47

       Why would these issues impact us on a individual level? So I'm thinking about the average person listening now-

   18. KKKonstantin Kisin22:53

       Yeah

   19. SBSteven Bartlett22:53

       ... whether they're in the United States or here in Britain. You know, this stuff happens kind of up above us-

   20. KKKonstantin Kisin22:57

       Mm-hmm

   21. SBSteven Bartlett22:57

       ... and we get on with our lives, but what are the symptoms we'll begin to see-

   22. KKKonstantin Kisin23:02

       Well-

   23. SBSteven Bartlett23:02

       ... in this multipolar world or the, the fall of Britain?

   24. KKKonstantin Kisin23:04

       You're already poorer today than you were twenty years ago per capita.

   25. SBSteven Bartlett23:09

       In the UK?

   26. KKKonstantin Kisin23:10

       In the UK.

   27. SBSteven Bartlett23:10

       Yeah.

   28. KKKonstantin Kisin23:11

       That seems to me quite important, and in fact, many of our conversations about domestic issues, whether it's mass immigration and all of these other things, they're really proxies for that conversation. 'Cause if we, if the economy was growing, and people felt richer, all of this stuff would become less important, right? Well, I think we'd agree with that. So that's one aspect of it. The other aspect of it is, as I talked about, the multipolar world being, by necessity, more violent and unstable, we are going-- you know, you, we, w- I don't know when this will go out, but we're recording this in the middle of January. It's been, like, two weeks since the year started, and we've already seen-... crazy amounts of instability geopolitically already. Is that fair to say?

   29. SBSteven Bartlett23:51

       Mm-hmm.

   30. KKKonstantin Kisin23:51

       So this will continue, and that will bleed through to domestic politics, because if you have to spend more of your resources worrying about things abroad, it means you can do less at home, uh, and so on, and so on, and so on. So the, the ramifications of this will be very impactful on everybody around the world, more on non-Western countries, 'cause they are- a lot of them are gonna be in the front line of this, in w- in the way that I, I doubt we will be. Uh, but still, the consequences for us will be very significant.
7. 24:20 – 30:36

   Why Socialism Is Rising Again—And What It Means

   1. SBSteven Bartlett24:20

      adjacent to this, this rise in socialism.

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin24:22

      Yeah.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett24:23

      The conversation around socialism. Obviously, Mandani has been elected mayor, but do you think this is at all linked to the bigger picture, this rise in socialism?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin24:30

      Yeah, in fact, I, I think, you know, I wrote an article a, a long time ago called "Why I Fear the Future," and I did a video based on it, in which I talked about something... It's interesting, I did a live show, um, here in London just before Christmas, and I did a book signing, and one of the guys came up to me and he said, "I've got two kids, they're both teenagers, daughter and a son, and I'm trying to pull the daughter in from the far left, and I'm trying to pull the son in from the far right." That's gonna be the big challenge going forward because, um, the amount of chaos and instability and cultural, kind of cultural upheaval that we've seen has produced a craving for order, and on the social, that's the right side. You know, we must, you know, get this- and on the other side, it's produced a sense of injustice and the pursuit of inequality. That's why you hear people talk so much about the rich, the rich, the rich, the rich, and, you know, "Eat the rich, we've got to redistribute all of this stuff." Because particularly in the big cities, young people rightly feel that they can- they can't really get on the housing ladder, they can't establish a family. Life is more difficult, so they reach for these very, um, dis- disproven, discredited, and completely unworkable solutions of the kind Mandani, uh, will, of course, deliver. But it's because their sense of... Their sense is that the future has been taken away from them, and in many ways, they're correct, because, as I said earlier, we have been borrowing from our children and our grandchildren. We've been saddling with crippling debts our, our entire economy. That will come to an end, and it's gonna be them that is left to foot the bill, and it's gonna be very painful. And partly, they see that, and already they see that they just can't afford the life that they want. I do think in the United States, it's a much more contained phenomenon. I think Mandani, and y- if you look at sort of the American socialists, they all tend to cluster around New York and one or two other big cities. It's not like the entirety of America is going, uh, socialist. But I think housing unaffordability is one. Another explanation, which I think is also powerful, is what's called the leap over production, which is if you have, as Tony Blair did, this idea that fifty percent of the public should, should go to university, well, they do, and then it turns out there's not enough jobs for them, particularly in the age of AI, where they are the jobs that are being eliminated very rapidly. You then get a lot of people whose entitlement is up here and whose prospects are down here. That produces a tremendous amount of social disease as well.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett26:53

      I think this is a really important connected point on the subject of socialism and the rise of socialism that we will see is this point of AI. And when I listen to very, very smart people who are considered to be the godfathers of AI-

   6. KKKonstantin Kisin27:07

      Mm

   7. SBSteven Bartlett27:07

      ... or CEOs who are building these technology companies, there seems to be a consensus that socialism will only increase because the job losses associated with AI are gonna be pretty quick and pretty extreme. And, um, I mean, one of them that most Brits won't understand is something we understand now living in America, which is my car drives itself.

   8. KKKonstantin Kisin27:24

      Yes.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett27:25

      And I've said this a few times 'cause I'm really trying to-- It's like the first moment, eureka moment, I think you have-

   10. KKKonstantin Kisin27:29

       Yeah

   11. SBSteven Bartlett27:30

       -is in America, when I get in my car, I don't touch the steering wheel or the pedals, and it can drive me to Joshua Tree, which is, like, two and a half, three hours away, uninterrupted. And I say this because driving is, like, one of the biggest employers in the world. I think it is the biggest profession-

   12. KKKonstantin Kisin27:42

       Oh!

   13. SBSteven Bartlett27:42

       -in the world.

   14. KKKonstantin Kisin27:42

       Oh.

   15. SBSteven Bartlett27:43

       And London just announced that Waymos are here, and soon, sh- surely, Teslas will be allowed to do full self-driving here as well. And in such a world, delivery drivers, taxi drivers, Uber drivers are gonna be without jobs.

   16. KKKonstantin Kisin27:56

       Mm.

   17. SBSteven Bartlett27:56

       And we're seeing this, um, huge rise in autonomous humanoid robots as well.

   18. KKKonstantin Kisin28:01

       Mm-hmm.

   19. SBSteven Bartlett28:01

       And Elon's pay packet says that he, he will make a million of these autonomous robots and get them out into the world. And Jason Calacanakis, who just visited Elon's factory, said there'll be a billion of these, and he, he thinks that we won't even, even remember Tesla for making cars. We'll only remember them for the robots they're made-

   20. KKKonstantin Kisin28:18

       Right

   21. SBSteven Bartlett28:18

       ... because these Optimus robots, which are coming, are gonna be so consequential. And the last point here is a very good friend of mine, he runs this big sort of innovation accelerator in San Francisco. I visited it, the, the accelerator a couple of weeks back, and, um, he's- I said to him, "Why, why is everybody here, all these young founders, these forty, fifty young founders in your building called Effing, all, all working on robotics?" And he goes, "Well, you know, we've had all the parts for, like, twenty, thirty years, but the expensive part was the intelligence."

   22. KKKonstantin Kisin28:44

       The brain.

   23. SBSteven Bartlett28:44

       Yeah, the brain.

   24. KKKonstantin Kisin28:45

       Mm.

   25. SBSteven Bartlett28:45

       He goes, "Now we have the brain." He said he used to-- He showed me this arm, this robotic arm, that had a frying pan on it-

   26. KKKonstantin Kisin28:50

       Wow

   27. SBSteven Bartlett28:50

       ... that would cook for you, uh, in a box. It just cooks whatever you want in a box. And he goes, "We've had all these parts for the last thirty years."

   28. KKKonstantin Kisin28:56

       Mm.

   29. SBSteven Bartlett28:56

       "That- they were cheap." He goes, "The, the intelligence part, the brain, would cost twenty or thirty thousand dollars just for this little robot arm." He goes, "Now, it's, like, two cents."

   30. KKKonstantin Kisin29:06

       Yeah.
8. 30:36 – 37:04

   Are We Actually Moving Toward a Communist World?

   1. KKKonstantin Kisin30:36

      like, a hundred percent on board with communism.

   2. SBSteven Bartlett30:40

      Do you think that's the world we're heading towards?

   3. KKKonstantin Kisin30:42

      Possibly. Yeah. But it makes sense. I mean, like, y- if you think about it from the perspective of fifty people in the world have all the money in the world, and everyone else has no job, I think a little bit of wealth redistribution [chuckles] is gonna be unavoidable in that situation, and it can either happen voluntarily, or it's gonna happen at the end of bayonets. That's the choice.

   4. SBSteven Bartlett31:04

      When you say communism would be the only choice in such a scenario, what, what does that mean?

   5. KKKonstantin Kisin31:07

      Uh, it means everybody gets paid for existing, right? Well, I mean, what else is there? You're gonna create fake jobs for people? That's not gonna work, right. So if, if all the wealth in the world is gonna be created by robots, th- a world in which tho- the products of their labor, it only accrues to fifty people who had the idea or did the work twenty years ago, that's not going to sustain itself. And so, uh, it would be very, very unwise of those people to attempt to hold on to all that wealth, and it would not end well for them, in my opinion.

   6. SBSteven Bartlett31:43

      On a personal level, you know, this disruption's gonna happen in your lifetime.

   7. KKKonstantin Kisin31:46

      Yeah.

   8. SBSteven Bartlett31:47

      Are you thinking much about it or planning for it at all? Did-- Has it changed any of the decisions you, you make on a, uh, a day-to-day basis or month-to-month basis?

   9. KKKonstantin Kisin31:54

      Well, I'm very fortunate that I am probably a little harder to replace with a robot just because people don't really wanna hear a robot's opinions, I would imagine. We might get to that point, but I think it's unlikely. So on my, my own level, I'm probably, you know... The timescale I'm working to, in the next ten years, I imagine I'll, I'll get myself to a point where I'm gonna be reasonably comfortable no matter what happens. [snaps fingers] For my children-

   10. SBSteven Bartlett32:17

       That was us cutting forward ten years and what-

   11. KKKonstantin Kisin32:19

       Yeah, yeah. [laughing] Just totally, me just unemployed long term.

   12. SBSteven Bartlett32:22

       [laughing]

   13. KKKonstantin Kisin32:23

       Mate, well, I can't believe what happened. For my children, it's a very different conversation. Uh, so a lot of people are like: "Well, you know, what should I teach my children?" And people are: "Oh, yeah, they should be a plumber." I don't think you're gonna need plumbers fifteen, twenty years from now either. So I d-- I honestly don't know what that future looks like. And in many ways, that's always been the reality of life for most people. We are living through one of those great transitions in human history, in which all you can do is equip your children with the basic skill sets of life, as opposed to what might have been done twenty, thirty years ago, where, like, y- y- you get-- you go to school to develop a skill, to go to university, to build a career. Now, you're gonna have to show a lot of flex in this modern world. So you're gonna have to be personable, you're gonna have to be resourceful, you're gonna have to be creative, you're gonna have to go-- have a, a positive go-getter mindset. You're gonna have to have those basics nailed down, as opposed to, "Here's the career that you've been predetermined to have." Unless, of course, you go into AI and robotics, in which case, you probably won't be replaced for at least five years.

   14. SBSteven Bartlett33:23

       I think there's something to the fact that there's an angst with AI. And when, you know, people listen to podcasts all the time-

   15. KKKonstantin Kisin33:28

       Yeah

   16. SBSteven Bartlett33:28

       ... they, everyone who has a job in a big corporate environment now is being told by their CEO that, "You better learn AI, or it's gonna replace you."

   17. KKKonstantin Kisin33:35

       Yeah.

   18. SBSteven Bartlett33:35

       So we're, we're living in this moment of there's, like, aliens coming over the horizon-

   19. KKKonstantin Kisin33:40

       Mm

   20. SBSteven Bartlett33:40

       ... and we've spotted them.

   21. KKKonstantin Kisin33:41

       Mm.

   22. SBSteven Bartlett33:42

       They're not quite here yet-

   23. KKKonstantin Kisin33:43

       Mm-hmm

   24. SBSteven Bartlett33:44

       ... but it's, it's like saying to the general public: "Look, there's aliens coming, and they're coming for your job and everything you value."

   25. KKKonstantin Kisin33:49

       Mm.

   26. SBSteven Bartlett33:49

       That angst, in and of itself, I think can drive people towards ideas like socialism, understandably.

   27. KKKonstantin Kisin33:57

       Yeah.

   28. SBSteven Bartlett33:57

       Because you, you know, it's, it's a, it's a deep, existential angst.

   29. KKKonstantin Kisin34:02

       And also, a lot of the AI people, not all of them, a lot of them are being res- but a lot of them are being deeply irresponsible and very unwise with their messaging. And when-- Last time I was in New York, I was walking through Times Square, there was this giant billboard which said, it was the name of the company, which I don't remember: "Stop hiring humans. The age of the AI employee is here." I'm going: "Have you really thought about this? Have you thought about putting your company's name on this poster? Do you understand the impact this is gonna have on a normal person looking at that?" Um, but they are so... The thing is with AI, is the, the positive upsides of it are limitless, literally limitless. And so a lot of the people who are in that space, that's what they focus on, and they're like: "We can solve cancer. We can solve medical problems. We can have AI that's better than any physicist that can ever-- that's ever lived, that can give us the, you know, the eternal engine or, or, or, or whatever. We don't need energy anymore." Like, there are all sorts of crazy things that come out of AI that are potentially beneficial, and that is exciting. But the angst that you talk about, I think, is there, and I think it's also quite rational.

   30. SBSteven Bartlett35:10

       You just reminded me of a, a video that came out this week from Elon, where he says this. I'll play it for you. I think it's this one. So he's talking about... Elon's talking about the, the robots that are about to be released-
9. 37:04 – 44:01

   What the Iran Protests Reveal About Global Unrest

   1. SBSteven Bartlett37:04

      I wanna talk about the situation in Iran.

   2. KKKonstantin Kisin37:07

      Mm.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett37:07

      We're seeing what one might call an uprising at the moment, where protesters are, are on the street in a country where it is very, very dangerous, um, and also very brave to protest against the leadership there. Where does this fit in the broader context? What, what, what the hell is going on?

   4. KKKonstantin Kisin37:22

      I am not an expert on Iran, but e- effectively, what's happening in Iran is an attempted counterrevolution. So they had a revolution in 1979. They overthrew the ruler, the Shah, and they replaced him with a, a, an Islamic dictatorship, which is what you've had since 1979. And the people of Iran have attempted to overthrow this Islamic dictatorship repeatedly. They've always been brutally suppressed, and that's basically what's happening now again.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett37:49

      And is-- Does this fit somewhere into the broader conflict of geopolitics and the US, the multipolar world?

   6. KKKonstantin Kisin37:54

      Well, only in the sense that you can see that even President Trump, who's talked quite brashly about what he might do if this sort of gets out of hand, is still not, as we speak, doing anything about it on a, on a kind of kinetic level, and that's partly be- for the reasons that we talked about earlier, which is the United States is deeply, deeply... The United States public are deeply, deeply skeptical about foreign interventions, and so the idea that we w- that we, the West, would support a, a regime change in Iran is not something that you can sell to the American people right now, and so he has to be, he has to be much more careful about what he might otherwise have done in Iran. And so because of that, the leaders of Iran probably feel like they're in a better position to crack down and survive versus what might have happened in the past.

   7. SBSteven Bartlett38:47

      I mean, Trump's been quite vocal in what he might do in his threats. He said that he, the US would come to the protesters' rescue, that we are locked, loaded, and ready to go. He announced that countries doing business with Iran faced a twenty-five percent tariff on their trade with the US, ramping up pressure.

   8. KKKonstantin Kisin39:01

      Mm.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett39:02

      And he called for Iranians to keep protesting. Um, and then more recently, he said, "I've canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. Help is on the way, MAG... MAGA?"

   10. KKKonstantin Kisin39:14

       Make Iran Great Again. [chuckles]

   11. SBSteven Bartlett39:16

       [chuckles]

   12. KKKonstantin Kisin39:16

       Well, Iran, you know, uh, I mean, one thing that should be said is the Persian Empire and the Persian people are a great people with a very rich history, and what's interesting is in attempting to over-- I don't know if you've ever seen pictures from Tehran from before 1979. It's like women walking around in miniskirts and, and, and all the rest of it. So they have a, a very long history of freedom in a way that we don't tend to think of the Middle East as having today. Uh, and that's, that's, uh, that's an example of how it's perhaps different from other parts of the Middle East. But y- you can see the, the reluctance to actually do anything about it because the question is, well, let's say you do remove the current leadership. Let's say you bring back the son of the former Shah, Reza Pahlavi. He oversees a, a transition to some kind of democratic thing. Who is there protecting that process from being disrupted by the remnants of the old regime? Who's gonna do that? Is it American boots on the ground? 'Cause there's literally zero appetite for that i- in America. That's the challenge that I think he faces, which is probably why he hasn't done anything.

   13. SBSteven Bartlett40:21

       And how do you think this story plays out?

   14. KKKonstantin Kisin40:23

       No idea, mate. No idea. I, I, I have no idea what, what's gonna happen here. I fear, unfortunately, that what the regime will do... I, I'm not saying this is what will happen, but my fear is, and it's one of the reasons that I am... [sighs] I sympathize so deeply with the Iranian people that are rising up against their oppression, but I am wary of encouraging, encouraging them unless we are willing to back them fully. This is exactly in the w- in the way that what happened with Ukraine. There was a lot of rah, rah, rah, and there was not nearly enough support to actually help them defend their country. Uh, my fear is there will be a lot of rah, rah, rah, "We support the Ukrainian people. We stand with them," blah, blah, you know, blah, blah, blah. But ultimately, the regime will kill more of them, and it will kill enough of them for this to go away. That's my worry.

   15. SBSteven Bartlett41:14

       Well, I hope the world does come to the support of the Iranians. I really do.

   16. KKKonstantin Kisin41:18

       Me too.

   17. SBSteven Bartlett41:19

       Because for all the reasons you've said, beautiful country, beautiful people, and, um, it's, it's horrific to see what's going on. There's varying estimates. It's-- unfortunately, we, we don't have accurate numbers because, I mean, the internet is down, and i- it's always hard to get accurate numbers in this situation. But I've heard estimates ranging from two thousand to eighteen thousand people being killed.

   18. KKKonstantin Kisin41:38

       Yeah.

   19. SBSteven Bartlett41:38

       And, uh, it's inconceivable, I think, for Westerners like us to understand what it is to live in an environment like that.

   20. KKKonstantin Kisin41:45

       Mm. Which is why they're protesting as courageously as they are. I just hope that the geopolitical realities allow us to support them in the way that we keep saying we would. Do you see what I'm saying?

   21. SBSteven Bartlett41:57

       Yeah, of course, yeah, and this is... Yeah.

   22. KKKonstantin Kisin41:59

       And this is my big worry. We have, we have done a lot of this. "We stand with you. We support you," and then when push comes to shove-... the realities of the thing come into play, and suddenly we're a lot more careful about it.

   23. SBSteven Bartlett42:13

       Trump seems to walk the walk more so than others.

   24. KKKonstantin Kisin42:15

       Absolutely.

   25. SBSteven Bartlett42:16

       And he seems to-- It's funny because I think Bi- it was Biden that said to China that if they took back Taiwan, he would get involved.

   26. KKKonstantin Kisin42:22

       Mm.

   27. SBSteven Bartlett42:24

       Trump didn't say that.

   28. KKKonstantin Kisin42:25

       Mm.

   29. SBSteven Bartlett42:25

       He's kind of... I was looking at some quotes from Trump, and it seems like he's basically like: "Well, if they take Taiwan back, I'm gonna get involved." [chuckles] But in other instances, where he warns countries that he'll bomb them-

   30. KKKonstantin Kisin42:34

       Mm.
10. 44:01 – 46:07

    Did Trump Really Try to Buy Greenland—And Why?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett44:01

       also talking about taking Greenland.

    2. KKKonstantin Kisin44:02

       Mm.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett44:03

       Which is-- The first time I heard him say that, I thought he was joking.

    4. KKKonstantin Kisin44:07

       Mm.

    5. SBSteven Bartlett44:07

       I thought, "This is just a funny Trump..." You know, when he was talking about taking Canada?

    6. KKKonstantin Kisin44:10

       Yeah.

    7. SBSteven Bartlett44:11

       [chuckles] It was-- He was calling it the great state of Canada. I thought this was him just joking.

    8. KKKonstantin Kisin44:15

       Yeah.

    9. SBSteven Bartlett44:15

       But in more recent times, in the last week, I heard him say in an interview, "We're gonna do it the easy way or the hard way."

    10. KKKonstantin Kisin44:20

        Mm.

    11. SBSteven Bartlett44:20

        Or words to that effect.

    12. KKKonstantin Kisin44:21

        Mm.

    13. SBSteven Bartlett44:23

        W- w- what's going on?

    14. KKKonstantin Kisin44:25

        Well, we talked about it. They're trying to protect their sphere of influence in North America and South America, and they, they want, they want, they want to have the military bases there that they want to have there. They want to have the resources and access to that.

    15. SBSteven Bartlett44:37

        Are we returning to empires?

    16. KKKonstantin Kisin44:39

        We never left empires. This is the, this is the great thing, that, that we, we've been living in a dreamworld, where we've been pretending these things haven't been going on the entire time. They have. The world's always been like this. There was a brief moment after World War II when it wasn't like this because we were fighting the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union, the battle in the Cold War was very similar. There was proxy wars all over the place between those two great powers, right? Now, there's two different great powers and a third smaller power in Russia, and India is rising as well, who are all trying to make their moves, and all Trump is doing is saying, "Well, we are not going to play by the fake rules anymore that no one else is playing by anyway."

    17. SBSteven Bartlett45:21

        And so is Trump endeavoring to take that part of the world, take control of that part?

    18. KKKonstantin Kisin45:26

        Take control, yeah. In many ways, it's what every great power seeks to do, is to control its neighbors so that they don't have foreign influence in their backyard, so that they have the strategic advantage in that area. Um, it's, it's the way of the world.

    19. SBSteven Bartlett45:41

        I mean, I didn't hear this rhetoric for the other thirty years of my life-

    20. KKKonstantin Kisin45:45

        Yeah

    21. SBSteven Bartlett45:46

        ... as explicitly.

    22. KKKonstantin Kisin45:47

        Yeah.

    23. SBSteven Bartlett45:48

        And when you say multipolar, what are the poles?

    24. KKKonstantin Kisin45:51

        Well, it's the US and China-

    25. SBSteven Bartlett45:54

        Yeah

    26. KKKonstantin Kisin45:55

        -are the two. Russia wants to claim it's a third one, and then you will see the rise of India, I think, over time as well. India's a lot more sensible about these things, about the way that they're developing.

11. 46:07 – 46:35

    Are Multipolar Powers Helping or Hurting the World Order?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett46:07

       And is, is the multipolar world a good thing or a bad thing, or is it just indifferent?

    2. KKKonstantin Kisin46:11

       For whom?

    3. SBSteven Bartlett46:12

       For... Let's do people living in Europe.

    4. KKKonstantin Kisin46:16

       I think it's likely to be a very bad thing for people living in Europe because we become less powerful, less wealthy, less relevant, uh, for, for the reasons we've already discussed. We could change it if we wanted to.

    5. SBSteven Bartlett46:31

       How?

    6. KKKonstantin Kisin46:32

       We could, uh, abandon our suicidal economic policy,

12. 46:35 – 53:09

    What China's Shrinking Child Population Means for the Future

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin46:35

       so we could have economic growth again-

    2. SBSteven Bartlett46:38

       Yeah

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin46:38

       ... which would increase our share of GDP. It would make our people more prosperous. It would help to quell domestic unease-

    4. SBSteven Bartlett46:45

       Mm-hmm

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin46:46

       ... part of which has been created by mass immigration. People care about that more because they're poorer, right? If we were growing, then everybody's a little bit happier. It's like you move to LA, the sunshine is nice, everybody's a little bit happier. When you're getting richer, everybody's a little bit happier. So that's one of them. The second one is, you've got to recognize that the huge waves of immigration we have had, uh, have brought some positives. They've also brought a tremendous amount of cultural instability. People feel like their country is changing. They never voted for it. In fact, they repeatedly voted against it. So you have to arrest the sense that our country is ceasing to be one place, and instead, we're becoming different communities, right? The this community, the that community. Instead, we've got to go to a place where we're all British, or we're all American, or we're all French, or whatever it is. We've got to integrate fully the people who've already arrived, and to do that, you have to make sure you don't continue to have the same scale of inflows that we've had. You have to deal with illegal immigration. You have to stop that from happening because that, that really affects how people feel about sense of fairness and a commitment and loyalty to their country. One of the reasons, if you talk to young people, they're- they'll say they're disillusioned, they won't fight for their country, et cetera, is they feel like, well, their country doesn't care about them. It's bringing in people that it's paying to have a house and, and so all the rest of it, while they can't get on the property ladder. So you've got to deal with immigration as a whole package. Then you have to rebuild your military. You have to rebuild your military capacity.... and then you have to understand the new world in which we live, and really pick a team, and say, "Which alliances are we gonna nurture?" In my opinion, the best thing Britain could do is to nurture the alliance with the United States, to make itself relevant within that alliance f- in the ways that I've already talked about, and then join forces with the US, and recognize that we have very similar interests in a lot of things, and if we were prepared to act like it, then we'd be in a much better place. And also, you've gotta have more kids. A lot more kids.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett48:50

       Why?

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin48:51

       Uh, if you, if you look at- forget about the moral kind of sensibilities and politically correct stuff about it. The more people you have, the more powerful you are, compared to all other things being equal, right? A country with more people is more powerful than a country with fewer people, just if everything else is the same. But more importantly, w- our, our demo- we're in a demographic death spiral, and, and this is one of the reasons we have had mass immigration. Politicians won't tell you the honest truth of it, but the real reason is they keep br- bringing in hundreds of thousands of people is, if they don't, we will see the reality, which is that we're getting poorer all the time. But if they bring in im- a, a mass of people from outside, they can say that the economy is growing, not because it's growing on a per capita basis, but because you've simply added more people to the population. And if, if, if this is, seems abstract, think about it like this: Let's say you have, uh, you have a family, you, your girlfriend, and you've got two kids, right? And your total household income is £100,000 a year, let's say, for the four of you. Now, let's say you bring in your in-laws. They live in the same house, right? They don't earn anything. Let's say they earn ten grand a year each, so now your household income is 120,000. So you've got richer, haven't you?

    8. SBSteven Bartlett50:03

       Hmm.

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin50:04

       No, you've now got six people to spread that money over, and now you're per person a lot poorer. That's what British and European leaders have done, so that they could pretend that we're not getting poorer all the time. That's why they've done it. Uh, this is what they say, "We need people to come and do the jobs." That, that's what they mean. They mean, "We need to bring in more people, so we can tell you the economy's grown by 0.3% while you've been getting poorer." So you've got to address the economic side of this as well, uh, of the demographic thing. And the third thing, actually, is societies with lots of kid- kids are just much more dynamic than societies without them. You know, you get very stale when you've got too many older people. You need that young energy, that young blood. You need young people. You need children around. Uh, and then they will, of course, be the next generation that drive things forward. So you've got to have loads more, loads more kids. [paper rustling]

    10. SBSteven Bartlett50:58

        New Year always has a strange energy to it because people start talking about their goals, fresh starts, and new habits, but the reality is that most people carry the same ideas they had last year into the new year. I'm guilty of that, too, and they still don't end up doing anything with them, and I get why. Starting something new, especially if it's a business or a project, is overwhelming. Before you start, you're looking for the perfect moment and to be the perfect version of yourself, when really what matters most is taking that first step. If you've had an idea for a while, a product, a store, something you've been sitting on, our sponsor, Shopify, makes it easy to get started because you can build your store, sell on socials, take payments, use AI tools, and manage everything all in one place. So if twenty twenty-six is the year you finally back yourself, go to shopify.co.uk/bartlett and start selling, and you can sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial right now, too. Just go to shopify.co.uk/bartlett. I promise you, you don't need to have it all figured out. You just need to start. [paper rustling] You know, every once in a while, you come across a product that has such a huge impact on your life that you'd probably describe it as a game changer, and I would say [lips smack] for about thirty-five to forty percent of my team, they would currently describe this product that I have in front of me, called Ketone IQ, which you can get at ketone.com, as a game changer. But the reason I became a co-owner of this company, and the reason why they, they now are a sponsor of this podcast, is because one day when I came to work, there was a box of this stuff sat on my desk. I had no idea what it was. Lily, in my team, says that, "This company have been in touch," so I went upstairs, tried it, and quite frankly, the rest is history. In terms of my focus, my energy levels, how I feel, how I work, how productive I am, game changer. So if you want to give it a try, visit ketone.com/stephen for thirty percent off. You'll also get a free gift with your second shipment, and now you can find Ketone IQ at Target stores across the United States, where your first shot is completely free of charge. [paper rustling] And what do you think of Keir Starmer and the way he's leading the UK?

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin53:02

        It's very tempting always, we come back to the Biden, Trump, left, right thing, to put the blame on one specific

13. 53:09 – 57:43

    What Do You Really Think of Keir Starmer?

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin53:09

       person. Uh, I don't think he's doing a good job for the reasons that I told you. We've, we've got the highest tax burden in peacetime history, so he's driving business through the floor. I know that you will... We- you and I have never spoken about this, but I bet you could name fifty people off the top of your head who've left the UK to go to other places, who run businesses. You're nodding, right?

    2. SBSteven Bartlett53:28

       Yeah.

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin53:28

       For people listening-

    4. SBSteven Bartlett53:29

       Yeah

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin53:29

       ... Well, why is that happening? 'Cause the business climate here is not good.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett53:34

       Mm-hmm.

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin53:34

       The taxes here are very high, and also, the quality of life here has declined forever.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett53:39

       And generally, you know, I think maybe the first point you said about climate, there's a pessimism.

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin53:44

       Yes. Why is that? [chuckles] Why is that?

    10. SBSteven Bartlett53:48

        It's self-fulfilling.

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin53:49

        Yes.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett53:50

        It's like a self-fulfilling pessimism, where founders who are in my portfolio that I've invested in will come to me and say, "Hi, you know, we've just sold, uh, ten percent of the business for twenty million."

    13. KKKonstantin Kisin53:59

        Yeah.

    14. SBSteven Bartlett54:00

        And then the next sentence will be their escape plan.

    15. KKKonstantin Kisin54:02

        Mm-hmm.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett54:03

        And that didn't use to happen-

    17. KKKonstantin Kisin54:04

        Right

    18. SBSteven Bartlett54:04

        ... even ten years ago.

    19. KKKonstantin Kisin54:05

        And that's because of government policy. That's the only way that this happens, right? Because if the government, A, keeps taxing you up to your eyeballs, and B, keeps telling you that you are evil-... which is what it does, right? If you're rich in Britain, you are evil. That's the, that's the algorithm we have, and we treat successful people, we immediately assume that they're privileged people. My pet theory is that this goes back to the landed gentry. The idea that in this country, if you were rich, there was a time when that was almost certainly because your dad was rich, or at least people thought that. And so [lips smack] this sense that if someone is successful economically, financially, it's probably because they've benefited from some sort of ill-gotten privilege. It permeates everything. In America, people don't feel that way. They go, "You've been successful 'cause you've worked really hard, and you've had a great idea. I'd love to learn from you. I'd love to be more like you." In Britain, we go, "You've been successful, ugh. You know, we've got to tax you." So if the government keeps taxing you and then telling you you're a bad person while you pay the overwhelming share of the taxes in the country, it's not a great place [chuckles] to be. You know, if I come home tonight, and my wife says, "Yeah, you earn all the money, but you're a dick, and I don't like you, and meh, meh, meh, meh, meh, meh, meh," after a while, you sort of go, "Well, i- if this isn't working, I'll go somewhere where I'm wanted." Do you know what I mean?

    20. SBSteven Bartlett55:26

        Mm-hmm.

    21. KKKonstantin Kisin55:27

        And I think that's what's happening to a lot of the most driven, the most talented, the most successful, the most creative people, and so we're driving out the business. We're driving out the entrepreneurs. Then on the industrial side of it, we talked about it before, net zero basically means that any energy-intensive business is completely unviable in Britain, and I'm sure you've seen this with AI and lots of other things. You go to where you can do your business. Then on top of that, you add regulation, particularly in, in Europe, which restricts your ability to do things again. So there's this, um... And it didn't, didn't, doesn't have to be like that. It wasn't like that, uh, in the '90s in this country, right? There was a positive go-getter business climate, and you can do that again. You just have to have a leader who is willing to do that, and Starmer is the opposite of that. And part of the reason is that they simply can't do anything about the fact that we are spending huge amounts of money, uh, keeping lots and lots of people trapped in welfare against-- in many ways, against their interest, and actually, in some ways, I would argue even against their will. Because, and I've made this point before, if you said to... You're a very driven person. I'm a very driven person, but when I was in my early twenties, if you'd said to me, "You don't need to work. You know, I know you're feeling a bit depressed," as I was in my early twenties. I wasn't sure what I was doing with life. "You're a bit depressed. You're a bit anxious." I remember going to apply for a job and just sweating buckets 'cause I was so anxious, right? "Well, you've got anxiety. You've got depression. You can't work. We'll give you twenty grand a year, and you can just-- you know, we'll write you off, and you just sit at home and play on the PlayStation and smoke weed." I would've taken that. Most people would've taken that, and that's the position we have put a lot of our young people in. Uh, we just write them off, we give them benefits, and we forget about them, and that welfare bill has become, A, unsustainable, but it's also uncuttable. They tried-- the Labour government tried to cut it. They tried to reform welfare, and their own backbenchers revolted, and they caved, and they said, "No, no, no, we're not gonna reform welfare. We're gonna tax the rich 'cause the rich, you know, don't pay enough tax." When in reality, I think, the top-- you maybe look this up, ten perce-- the top ten percent of taxpayers in this country pay, I think, more than half of all

14. 57:43 – 1:04:46

    The Real Debate Around Taxing the Rich in the UK

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin57:43

       the tax, probably significantly more than half of all the tax. But look it up. I think the top one percent pay thirty-three percent of all the tax. Fact-check me on this.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett57:53

       Okay, so the top ten percent of taxpayers pay sixty percent of all income tax.

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin57:59

       Yeah, and also, um, what's the other one? The c- capital gains as well. If you look up capital gains, it's basically the same. So if you put those two together, which is basically what we pay on earning, the top ten percent pay sixty percent of it. So what happens when you chase out those people, which is what we're doing? What happens to your tax base? You get less and less tax. That means you have to tax the people who haven't left yet more and more in order to pay people who are not-- who are net consumers of tax revenues.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett58:31

       According to HM Revenue and Customs data, in the UK, the top one percent pay thirty percent-

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin58:37

       Yeah

    6. SBSteven Bartlett58:38

       ... of all income.

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin58:38

       I said thirty-three, so thirty. Yeah. Yeah. So what happens when you say that one percent are evil, and they must pay more? One percent pay thirty percent of all the tax.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett58:50

       It's funny, I'm quite a torn person, uh, on this subject-

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin58:53

       [chuckles]

    10. SBSteven Bartlett58:53

        ... 'cause I, I represent kind of two sides of this argument. The first side of the argument, I just have this sort of visceral memory of being sat at my desk in Moss Side with these, like, bailiff letters on my right-

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin59:03

        Mm

    12. SBSteven Bartlett59:04

        ... this smashed-up laptop on my left-

    13. KKKonstantin Kisin59:05

        Uh-huh

    14. SBSteven Bartlett59:06

        ... knowing that I had no way of eating that day and thinking, "Oh, I need-- you know what I need to do? There's this thing called jobseeker's allowance."

    15. KKKonstantin Kisin59:13

        Uh-huh.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett59:13

        And I was, like, messing with the idea, do I join it? 'Cause, like, right now I'm, like, scavenging for pound coins to see if I can buy some C- Chinese from Nyonya takeaway, and I printed off the forms, and the forms were there in front of me on the desk to apply for jobseeker's allowance when I was maybe eighteen years old, roughly that age, eighteen, nineteen years old. And because I got so close, I have this huge amount of empathy for people that get to that point.

    17. KKKonstantin Kisin59:35

        Uh-huh.

    18. SBSteven Bartlett59:36

        And then on the other side, because I'm now in a different world-

    19. KKKonstantin Kisin59:39

        Mm

    20. SBSteven Bartlett59:39

        ... and I am around entrepreneurs so much who are so, so frequently telling me their escape plan from the UK-

    21. KKKonstantin Kisin59:46

        Mm-hmm

    22. SBSteven Bartlett59:47

        ... that I feel the need to let the average-- the, the normal person that's listening to this podcast, that maybe doesn't have the access to entrepreneurs or the inside conversations that I'm, that I have with entrepreneurs, know that when people come on the show and tell you that rich people will leave, it is my experience that rich people leave. And, like, because there's, there is an argument, ongoing argument: "No, they won't leave," and then people point at different things. No, no, they, they leave. They leave. I mean, we just saw Revolut, which is one of the, the most successful companies-

    23. KKKonstantin Kisin1:00:16

        Right

    24. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:16

        ... emerge from the UK in recent times.

    25. KKKonstantin Kisin1:00:18

        Yeah.

    26. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:18

        It's probably gonna be worth a hundred billion. The founder left.

    27. KKKonstantin Kisin1:00:22

        Yeah.

    28. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:22

        ... I think it's Dubai or somewhere-

    29. KKKonstantin Kisin1:00:24

        Yeah

    30. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:24

        -he's gone to.
15. 1:04:46 – 1:08:48

    What Kind of Leader Does the UK Desperately Need?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett1:04:46

       don't you like getting into the personality side of things?

    2. KKKonstantin Kisin1:04:47

       Because what happens when I... If I give you a name-

    3. SBSteven Bartlett1:04:50

       Yeah

    4. KKKonstantin Kisin1:04:51

       ... then immediately people say, "Oh, he's one of them."

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:04:54

       Oh, okay.

    6. KKKonstantin Kisin1:04:55

       Right? I am not one of them, of any them. I'm just telling you what the policies are that I think would work for our country. If Keir Starmer tomorrow came on your show and said, "Steven, I'm here to announce a great British transformation. We're gonna cut business taxes, we're gonna get rid of net zero, we're gonna make sure that we have the cheapest energy in the world for our businesses to grow and thrive. We're gonna have a strong, capable military, and by the way, I've just hired fifty thousand new police officers to deal with all the ridiculous amounts of street crime we've got in London," sign me up. I'm all Keir Starmer, ride or die, right? But that's probably not gonna happen. That's probably not gonna happen with any of the other leaders that we have. So I'm here telling you what I think the right policies are, and if there's a leader who advocates for those policies, that's the sort of leader that I will support.

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:05:45

       Only eighteen percent of Britons view Keir Starmer positively-

    8. KKKonstantin Kisin1:05:49

       Yeah

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:05:50

       ... with around sixty-five to seventy-two percent holding an unfavorable opinion.

    10. KKKonstantin Kisin1:05:55

        You're desperate for me to slag off Keir Starmer. I'm happy to do it. [laughing]

    11. SBSteven Bartlett1:05:58

        No, no, I'm, I'm actually not. I'm actually not. Do you know what? Do you know what? My opinion of Keir Starmer, probably a really nice person.

    12. KKKonstantin Kisin1:06:03

        Probably.

    13. SBSteven Bartlett1:06:04

        Probably a really nice person.

    14. KKKonstantin Kisin1:06:05

        Yeah, yeah. I don't really care how nice he is, and that's my attitude to all politicians.

    15. SBSteven Bartlett1:06:09

        Yeah.

    16. KKKonstantin Kisin1:06:09

        I care about whether they're gonna do things that are good m- good for our country.... uh, from what I know, he's probably a, uh-- he strikes me as a very, uh, well-intentioned, probably fairly competent person.

    17. SBSteven Bartlett1:06:21

        Mm-hmm.

    18. KKKonstantin Kisin1:06:21

        Uh, but what he's doing is completely wrong. The only reason I don't like to go in on him is I, I think he, I think he's useless. I do. I also don't think it's fair to lay the blame for everything that's happening-

    19. SBSteven Bartlett1:06:33

        Yeah

    20. KKKonstantin Kisin1:06:34

        -at his feet. The Conservatives were useless before that. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives were useless before that. The Labour Party under Blair were actually not useless; they were really, really good at ter- doing terrible things to the country. They were very competent at doing that. So what we have had for now, one, two, three decades, is terrible leadership that's taken us in completely the wrong direction.

    21. SBSteven Bartlett1:06:54

        I, I'm, I have to cite the statistics around his favorability or popularity because it puts everything you're saying in context-

    22. KKKonstantin Kisin1:07:01

        Mm.

    23. SBSteven Bartlett1:07:01

        -which is these ideas aren't popular.

    24. KKKonstantin Kisin1:07:03

        No.

    25. SBSteven Bartlett1:07:04

        Polling has shown that Starmer's approval among the British public is the weakest of any recent UK prime minister, with dissatisfaction levels on some trackers showing him to be below most predecessors, um, in even in the Labour government. So that's the, the, the weird part because it's not-- it's doesn't seem to be working to drive favorability-

    26. KKKonstantin Kisin1:07:23

        No

    27. SBSteven Bartlett1:07:23

        -anyway, either.

    28. KKKonstantin Kisin1:07:24

        No. But, but this is why I'm saying focusing on him individually, that isn't helpful, actually, and this is not to argue with you unnecessarily. If you put Kemi Badenoch in his place, she'd have the same favorability ratings.

    29. SBSteven Bartlett1:07:36

        Really? Even though she has different ideas?

    30. KKKonstantin Kisin1:07:38

        [sighs] Does she?
16. 1:08:48 – 1:16:07

    Why the UK’s Wealth Mindset Needs a Rethink

    1. SBSteven Bartlett1:08:48

       had a lot of people, so say, you know, I remember in my German office back in the day, in SocialChange German office, we had a hundred, a hundred and fifty people, very, very different culture to the UK.

    2. KKKonstantin Kisin1:08:56

       Mm-hmm.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett1:08:56

       So I thought naively-

    4. KKKonstantin Kisin1:08:57

       Yeah

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:08:57

       -as a twenty-three, twenty-four-year-old, I could fly there-

    6. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:00

       Yeah

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:00

       ... and change the culture-

    8. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:02

       Yeah

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:02

       -of the Berlin office.

    10. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:03

        Yeah.

    11. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:04

        [laughing] How dumb was I?

    12. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:06

        This is not how we do things.

    13. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:08

        I could not change, I could not change-

    14. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:10

        Yeah

    15. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:10

        -the culture of the Ger-- the Berlin office.

    16. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:11

        Yeah.

    17. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:12

        So I think about a country.

    18. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:13

        Yeah.

    19. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:13

        Changing the culture of a country.

    20. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:15

        Yeah. That's why I'm what I call an accelerationist.

    21. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:18

        What does that mean?

    22. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:19

        It means that I believe that the only thing, the only way that these things will truly, fundamentally get better is when they get really, really bad first.

    23. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:27

        So you think it's gonna get really, really bad?

    24. KKKonstantin Kisin1:09:28

        The only way to change the culture is for people to understand what's actually happening, uh, so that they can't pretend the things that are happening are not happening, and that's what's happening at the moment. Most people don't yet quite know that they are poorer today than they were twenty years ago. Most people still think that we are saving the planet when we reduce Britain's carbon emissions from two percent to one point nine percent of global carbon emissions, while in fact, we're not even doing that. We're taking our carbon emissions, and we're sending them to India and China, and then shipping back the stuff they make for us in a dirtier way on big tankers, which actually consume more dirty fuel, and we're actually ending up increasing our CO2 output, not reducing it. Most people don't know that. But when they feel it in their pocket, when they feel like the, the, we're having a fiscal crisis, when they feel like they really can't afford their life anymore, that's when they're gonna start to ask some of these questions. It's one of the reasons, actually, the narrative on net zero is shifting. Like, almost nobody other than the government in this country still believes in the idea of net zero, right? Because it's moving quite quickly in that direction. Uh, and on lots of other things, it will happen when things get much more difficult for ordinary people, sadly. I don't want that to happen, but I think it's the only way things get better.

    25. SBSteven Bartlett1:10:44

        But on the subject of global warming, it's scientific fact that the climate is-

    26. KKKonstantin Kisin1:10:49

        Changing

    27. SBSteven Bartlett1:10:49

        ... changing unfavorably.

    28. KKKonstantin Kisin1:10:51

        Uh, what do you mean by unfavorably?

    29. SBSteven Bartlett1:10:52

        Well, if the, you know, scientists talk about the poles melting and how-

    30. KKKonstantin Kisin1:10:56

        Mm
17. 1:16:07 – 1:19:28

    What History Can Teach Us About Today’s Crisis

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:16:07

       History of the English-Speaking Peoples by Winston Churchill, and it talks about the history of this country, of England in particular. And basically, you go from strong ruler, and then he has no, no heir. You have a period of weakness, and what happens? There's a big power struggle over the throne, over, over power. This is, this is what's gonna happen. You are going to see more instability, more violence, more attempts to fight for dominance in the world. It's gonna be a much more unstable period of time, unfortunately. It's one of the reasons I've been so passionate about trying to say, "Let's not, let's not allow this to happen."

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:16:42

       Instability?

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:16:43

       Yeah.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:16:43

       In terms of war, in terms of-

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:16:46

       In terms of war, in terms of conflict, in terms of people to... trying to redraw maps, uh, in terms of people trying to get access to resources that otherwise would have been considered unchallengeable, et cetera. Yeah.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:16:59

       I was looking back through history, and I was asking the question: Has there been a multipolar world before? And there's these moments through history, fifth century BC with ancient Greece, um, nineteenth century, nineteenth-century Europe, between the 1850-

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin1:17:14

       Uh

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:17:14

       ... fifteens and 1914s, the warring states of China in four- 475 BC. And then my next question was: What happens next?

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin1:17:24

       Mm-hmm.

    10. SBSteven Bartlett1:17:24

        And the short answer is more friction, less restraint, higher risk. Realistically, the first thing that happens is rules weaken, which I guess is kind of what we're seeing at the moment-

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin1:17:35

        Yeah

    12. SBSteven Bartlett1:17:36

        ... with this whole idea of international law.

    13. KKKonstantin Kisin1:17:38

        Mm.

    14. SBSteven Bartlett1:17:39

        Regional wars begin, not one big war. Arms races accelerate, some alliances harden, economic fragmentation, domestic pressure rises, so higher defense spending, higher taxes, et cetera, um, lower growth. And the three end games history keeps showing, that we have managed chaos, major war, a reset, and then a new hege- hegemon emerges.

    15. KKKonstantin Kisin1:18:05

        Yes.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett1:18:06

        What the heck does that mean?

    17. KKKonstantin Kisin1:18:07

        Hegemon is the one dominant power that c- that, that sort of con- in the same way that the US had that moment between '91 and... recently, when it was the only undisputed power in the world.

    18. SBSteven Bartlett1:18:18

        Do you agree with that pattern of events?

    19. KKKonstantin Kisin1:18:19

        Well, I was gonna say, you sort of make it look like I've got all my ideas from AI, but-

    20. SBSteven Bartlett1:18:23

        [laughing]

    21. KKKonstantin Kisin1:18:24

        Yeah, yeah, but, but, but the see-- this is the thing is like, before we started, I said to you, "Steven, do me one favor, don't present me as an expert, 'cause I'm just a guy thinking from first principles and explaining the basics as I understand them."

    22. SBSteven Bartlett1:18:35

        Mm-hmm.

    23. KKKonstantin Kisin1:18:36

        All of this is common sense, because ultimately it comes back to human nature, right? We are a tribal, competitive species. That's what we are. So when there isn't a dominant force that everyone respects and accepts as the leader, what happens? Every single time, when you have a power vacuum, you have a power struggle. That's what we are seeing, and that's what you're going to see. It's human nature. It's not about knowing geopolitics and having studied international theory for forty years. It's just basic human nature. When there, when there is a dispute about who the leader is, that always creates the thing that AI just told you.

    24. SBSteven Bartlett1:19:18

        Well, the next step in that is a power struggle.

    25. KKKonstantin Kisin1:19:20

        Yeah, but that's what you're seeing now.

    26. SBSteven Bartlett1:19:22

        But in a-- there's never been a nuclear-

    27. KKKonstantin Kisin1:19:24

        Right. And nuclear weapons have been the great force for peace. We had

18. 1:19:28 – 1:20:34

    How Power Struggles Shape Nations—and Collapse Them

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:19:28

       the, the great historian from The Rest is History, Dominic Sandbrook, on the show, and I asked him about this, and he said, "Yeah, I mean, nuclear weapons is why we haven't had a major war." And it's maybe the one thing that will constrain our ability to have a major war. It's one possibility. It's also the great risk.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:19:49

       Maybe this is where the cycle ends because of nuclear weapons, is what you're saying. Maybe this is-

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:19:54

       Um, yeah, I'm, I'm-- I am hopeful on that front, actually. I, I am hopeful that human beings, ultimately, the instinct for self-preservation is so strong that we do not go there. I think that's, that's by far and away the most likely scenario, but of course, it is something that humans have to reckon with, and we have to be very, very careful as things more... And by the way, nuclear weapons may not be the most powerful weapons that exist in the world twenty years from now.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:21

       In such a world, and I know you don't like it being about individuals, but Trump is a certain type of leader.

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:20:26

       Mm-hmm.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:27

       You know, quite unapologetic in what he says.

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin1:20:30

       Mm.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:31

       I think he's got even more unapologetic because he only has a couple of years

19. 1:20:34 – 1:23:14

    Is Trump the Leader for This Moment in History?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:34

       left, and he can't be re-elected-

    2. KKKonstantin Kisin1:20:35

       Mm

    3. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:35

       ... because of the laws. Are you concerned that if a different type of leader arrived into power in the US, maybe someone who China and Russia thought was less likely to send the, the, the jets in o-- at nighttime and bomb nuclear bunkers or snatch a president from their house, would that be a risk for the West, in your view?

    4. KKKonstantin Kisin1:20:58

       Massive.

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:59

       So do you think-

    6. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:00

       But that's how we got here. This is why that withdrawal from Afghanistan, embarrassing as it was, is exactly how you get everything else. This is just one symptom of people thinking... We talked about October 7th. We talked about the invasion of Ukraine, right? That's what happens when they see weakness. This is what happens. I remember, you know, um, [chuckles] it's kind of funny. It shows the cultural differences between the Russian mindset and the Western mindset, 'cause The Jungle Book that we had in the Soviet Union is very different to the one that you see- that you guys had here. Did you see Jung-- you know, the original Jungle Book?

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:21:32

       The Disney one?

    8. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:33

       Yeah.

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:21:33

       Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    10. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:34

        Yeah, yeah.

    11. SBSteven Bartlett1:21:34

        Yeah.

    12. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:34

        You know, it's all happy, the, you know, uh-

    13. SBSteven Bartlett1:21:36

        For context, you should probably say where you come from because-

    14. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:38

        I'm from, fro- from the Soviet Union. I was born there. Um, and-

    15. SBSteven Bartlett1:21:42

        Your, your father-- you've got mother and father that are Ukrainian and Russian.

    16. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:45

        Yeah.

    17. SBSteven Bartlett1:21:45

        Yeah.

    18. KKKonstantin Kisin1:21:45

        Basically, yeah. Um, so the Soviet Jungle Book adaptation, very different, and there's this, the-- one of the opening scenes is Akela, who is the lead wolf. He's the, the wolf, the leader of the wolf pack. They're on a hunt, and he... They're hunting, and he misses the-- he's supposed to grab the animal, and he misses, and suddenly the cry goes around the jungle, "Akela missed." And everybody knows what that means. Everybody knows when the leader shows weakness and fails, that's the moment when everything goes to shit, and there's a power struggle for his role because he is no longer top dog. It's, it's really as simple as that.

    19. SBSteven Bartlett1:22:28

        So do you think Trump's a good thing for the West?

    20. KKKonstantin Kisin1:22:31

        Trump is a good thing for America.

    21. SBSteven Bartlett1:22:32

        Mm-hmm.

    22. KKKonstantin Kisin1:22:33

        I, I think what he's done, by virtue of his behavior, is he's exposed the weakness of Europe, and there is a cleave now happening between Europe and America. And to that extent, I think it could be a good thing for Europe if Europe gets its act together and says, "Actually, we've got to wake up from the nightmare that we've created for ourselves and start acting differently." If that happens, it will also be a good thing for the West. That is not what's happening right now. It's going in the exact opposite direction.

    23. SBSteven Bartlett1:23:00

        What would it take for you to leave the UK?

    24. KKKonstantin Kisin1:23:05

        Um, you-- well, look, I-- like, y- you know, everybody gets job opportunities and stuff, um, goes for a year or two somewhere. That,

20. 1:23:14 – 1:26:08

    What Would Make You Leave the UK for Good?

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:23:14

       that, that could happen in any circumstance. If you mean, like, for me to say, "I'm leaving Britain, never coming back," um, I think it would have to be clear at the next election that Britain is actually going further down the path that we're on. So two or three years from now, I'd have to conclude that there's actually no-- there's no way we're coming back. It's over. And that's happened to great countries and great civilizations in history. If that's what happens, then I, I don't see why I should doom my children to living here. If we can rescue it, uh, and make this co-- uh, sounding like Trump, "Make Britain great again," but you know what I mean. Um, then I, I, I would love to fight for that, and I'd love to, to have my children be part of that.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:23:59

       What is the most important thing that we didn't talk about that we should have talked about?

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:24:02

       This point I keep coming back to, Steven, which is, we can't live in a world in which we care more about how things make us feel than about the consequences of the actions that we take.... w- so much, th- this is a Thomas Sowell line. At-- last time you had me on, I mentioned to you what a great writer and thinker Thomas Sowell is. I don't know if you've had a chance to check out any of his work, but I recommend it thoroughly to everyone watching and listening. He, he talks about the fact that the last several decades have been spent replacing what works with what feels good. That's the one thing we're not talking about. All of the policies you and I have been talking about are all about what makes us feel good, as opposed to what actually works in practice. And our, our conversation about chasing out entrepreneurs, it's exactly about that. It's exactly what it's about. It's about fulfilling your ideological, emotional needs, as opposed to doing things that practically work. If we can make that adjustment and get back to reality, the world's our oyster.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:25:05

       An Immigrant's Love Letter to the West, the book that you wrote-

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:25:09

       Mm.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:25:09

       -it was a, a smash hit, Sunday Times bestseller.

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin1:25:13

       Yeah, unfortunately, it gets more accurate every day, which is really worrying 'cause [chuckles] I was very pessimistic about a lot of the things I said.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:25:19

       That is absolutely right. You wrote this book, was it twenty twenty-two?

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin1:25:22

       Twenty twenty-two, it came out.

    10. SBSteven Bartlett1:25:23

        Twenty twenty-two.

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin1:25:24

        Yeah.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett1:25:25

        And it, it appears to be a, a prediction as the days go on-

    13. KKKonstantin Kisin1:25:29

        Mm

    14. SBSteven Bartlett1:25:29

        ... a prediction that is being validated, unfortunately. I highly recommend everybody reads this book. I'm gonna link it below for anyone that hasn't read it. What's unique about you is you do appear to be very wedded to objective truth as you see it, versus being ideologically capt- captured by either side. And I've seen you, I've seen you both attack the right at times, and I've also seen you attack the left at times, which is... It's a unique position to be in, in a world with algorithms that try and push you into a particular echo chamber. I guess on that point, what is it about the, the right that you take most issue with at the moment?

    15. KKKonstantin Kisin1:26:06

        Oh, there's a thing that I've,

21. 1:26:08 – 1:29:15

    The One Issue You Can’t Ignore on the Right

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:26:08

       uh, other people have at a similar time, so I'm not claiming authorship of it, but there's something that I call the woke right, uh, which is essentially an identitarian resentment, victimhood-based movement on the right, represented by the sort of extreme characters like Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens in the United States. You know, their worldview is that they, they've been oppressed. You know, the woke narrative was, we are oppressed. Well, now they say, "We- we've been oppressed, uh, and, uh, it's all the fault of various groups, the Jews, the whoevers." So it's a kind of, um... There's almost, you know, I think it's fair to say that there are elements of it that are just openly fascistic and, and, and reminiscent of the Nazis that we saw in the nineteen thirties, ideologically speaking. Um, and the mainstream right has utterly rejected these people, which I think is really reassuring. But there are some people who, who say, "Well, actually, no, no, we need to include them, and we shouldn't divide the conservative movement," which I think is a huge mistake for, for conservatives to make because their movement and their reputation with normal people will be very, very badly polluted in the eyes of independents and moderate people, who actually represent the overwhelming majority of the public. Even in America, which is so divided and so partisan, the normal, average person will vote for this party or for that party, depending on what they see, and in Britain, that's even more the case. And so to the extent that the right-- so the, there basically, there's a risk of the right repeating the mistakes of the left. What happened on the left? Woke people came along, and they said, "We are the left. Our crazy woke ideas is actually the left." And the sensible people on the left were terrified of challenging them, and so over time, most people began to associate the left with blue-haired, nose-piercing, you know, Greta Thunberg kind of ideology, and they went, "Ew, I don't want any of that." Well, on the right, if the right allows its extremist fringe to do the same thing, then lots of people are gonna distance themselves from that. So I think the right has a tremendous opportunity to... You know, we've had this great tension. I know you've had Jordan Peterson on your show, t- and I'm sure he talked about chaos and order, and that relationship is a very fragile thing i- in society. We have had so much chaos that there is a lot of craving for order now. There's a craving to deal with crime. There's a craving to deal with illegal immigration. There's a craving to deal with cultural, uh, disruption that we've had, right? There's a craving for that sense of order to come back, and if the right is reasonable and sensible about addressing those issues, they could be in charge for a very long time and have an opportunity to put some of their views into public policy, which they haven't had, uh, the opportunity to do for a long time. If they allow the extremists to take over, they will be painted, the entire movement will be painted as the extremists, and then they will not have the opportunity to actually implement their agenda.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:29:04

       Are you happy?

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:05

       Very.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:29:06

       What makes you happy?

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:07

       My family.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:29:10

       What about your family makes you happy?

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:11

       Having children is a blessing. It's the best thing ever. I d- you know, I,

22. 1:29:15 – 1:31:08

    Are You Truly Happy Right Now?

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:15

       I banged on about this to you last time, but it is.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:29:18

       Why?

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:19

       Why are children the best thing ever?

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:29:20

       Yeah.

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:21

       Can't explain it. It, it's not one of the... Like, I can find some words to give you, but i- it's just one of those things that's like, you, you don't know it until you have that experience. Uh, I could give you some nice soundbites. You know, one of the things I've said in the past is that the future is no longer an abstraction.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:29:39

       What does that mean?

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin1:29:39

       It means that in the past, I cared about this country or this civilization from a fairly theoretical perspective. Now, the future of this country is one person and maybe other people coming along, right? Little people that I have, they are the future in my mind, right? So I'm much more attached. I'm much more attached to the people who came before me. I have much more understanding of my p- when you have kids, you have a much better understanding of your parents, 'cause you go, "Oh, wow, so the reason they did this stupid thing is, A, I'm also doing it now for some reason, and also, they were really dealing with all the, all the things that I'm now dealing. I've got a job, and I've got a relationship, and I've got a this, and I've got a that."... so of course, they sometimes behaved in ways that I didn't understand or like, or whatever. So you have more empathy for your parents. You also have much, much more concern about where your country is going, your nation is going, your community is going, your immediate environment, 'cause that's where your children live, and then they're just joy. I mean, it's, um, there's nothing like it. There's really, really nothing like it. It's the most wonderful thing. It's fucking hard.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:30:46

       Hmm.

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin1:30:47

       It- y- you don't sleep a lot, and it's stressful at times, but, uh, it's the best. It's absolutely the best.

    10. SBSteven Bartlett1:30:53

        And you've got two kids?

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin1:30:54

        I've got one, uh, but maybe more on the way.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett1:30:57

        Oh, okay. Congratulations.

    13. KKKonstantin Kisin1:30:58

        Thank you. [chuckles]

    14. SBSteven Bartlett1:30:59

        And, uh, what, what is your primary concern for the world they're coming into?

    15. KKKonstantin Kisin1:31:04

        [sighs] Well, we've talked about all of this, right? I-

    16. SBSteven Bartlett1:31:06

        There was a primary.

    17. KKKonstantin Kisin1:31:07

        I think my

23. 1:31:08 – 1:32:06

    What’s Your Biggest Worry for Your Kids’ Future?

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:31:08

       primary concern for my kids is that, uh, my wife and I do the best job we can in raising them well, and then ultimately they're gonna be their own people, and they're gonna have to deal with the world in front of them in exactly the same way that others before have done. My grandfather, uh, my great-grandfather, he was younger than me now when he was sent to the Eastern Front while he had a baby son at home, and he never came back. Human beings have had to deal with all of this throughout history. We always have to deal with the reality of the terrible world that we face at that moment in time. They're gonna have to do the same. I can't protect them from that. What I can do is set them up in the best possible way, and that's the only thing I can do as a parent, and that's what I'm trying to do.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:31:48

       We have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next.

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:31:51

       Yep.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:31:52

       The question that's been left for you is: Who was the biggest non-family member influence in your life, and how did they make you a better person?

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:32:02

       Uh, yeah, not fair to boil it down to one, I think. Um,

24. 1:32:06 – 1:35:25

    Who Shaped You Most, Outside of Family?

    1. KKKonstantin Kisin1:32:07

       I, I had a teacher once who, um, basically made me realize that it's very, very important to give people an opportunity to prove themselves, and he did that by giving me an opportunity when I really didn't deserve it, but he gave it to me, and I took it. I've also just intellectually, Thomas Sowell, I, I, I mentioned him, reading his books is just completely transformational for me, and it really helped me think about the world. I think on a, on a, on a kind of personal behavior level, I got a, the, a huge opportunity, uh, to, to tour with Jordan Peterson for three weeks, a couple of years back. Uh, and that was completely transformational, seeing him up close, spending time with him, seeing that this is a man who, the way he is in public is exactly the way that he is in, in private, and so he really one of those very, very rare people who preaches what he practices. I remember, we, uh... I think it was El Paso, we arrived right on the south, on the, on the, on the border, and we arrived, we were late from the airport, starving, starving. And one of the things that tends to happen is, everyone who goes to his live shows works out that he might be at the best steak restaurant in town-

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:33:20

       Hmm

    3. KKKonstantin Kisin1:33:21

       ... on the day. So we turn up to the steak restaurant 'cause he only eats steak. We're starving. We sit down, um, the, the waiter brings the menus. Well, the moment we start looking at the menus, this group of guys comes over, uh, guy, uh, guys and girls comes over. He stands up, forgets about the menu, we're starving, gives them, you know, all the attention in the world, selfies, has a little chat, asks them what they do, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Sits down, places the order. Another group of people come over, gives them the same amount of attention, and by this point, we're dying of hunger. Finally, our steaks arrive, and, you know, they do in America, they say, "Please check that it's been cooked properly." So he cuts in, he cuts off a piece, he puts it on a fork, and as he's about to place it in his mouth, a group of literally twenty people shows up-

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:09

       Hmm

    5. KKKonstantin Kisin1:34:09

       ... saying, "Jo- Dr. Peterson, I'm so sorry, uh, uh, uh." He puts the fork down, stands up, and gives them all the exact same amount of attention that he'd given the previous people, and just in everyone that he interacted with, that's what I saw, a guy who talks about living in a certain way, actually practices it. And that was, you know, incredibly inspiring for me, really educational, gave me a lot of thoughts about my relationships, how I live my life. Um, he's a, he's a great man.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:37

       Konstantin, thank you.

    7. KKKonstantin Kisin1:34:38

       Thank you very much.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:39

       Thank you so much.

    9. KKKonstantin Kisin1:34:39

       Thanks for having me.

    10. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:40

        Staying in the pursuit of truth, and I highly recommend people check out TRIGGERnometry, your podcast. I'm gonna link it below. Um, and also, the book is gonna be linked below. Is there anything else?

    11. KKKonstantin Kisin1:34:51

        Yes, Steven, when are you coming on TRIGGERnometry? That's the question.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:53

        I've just finished my book.

    13. KKKonstantin Kisin1:34:55

        Oh!

    14. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:55

        It comes out in, uh-

    15. KKKonstantin Kisin1:34:56

        UK exclusive is what I'm hearing.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett1:34:59

        Deal. Deal. [chuckles]

    17. KKKonstantin Kisin1:35:01

        Signed. [chuckles]

    18. SBSteven Bartlett1:35:02

        Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

    19. KKKonstantin Kisin1:35:04

        Thanks, mate.

    20. SBSteven Bartlett1:35:04

        Thank you.

    21. KKKonstantin Kisin1:35:04

        I appreciate you having me.

    22. SPSpeaker1:35:05

        I believe that we are already at the early stages, if not in World War III.

    23. SPSpeaker1:35:09

        We are one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away-

    24. SPSpeaker1:35:13

        Or even one AI-generated viral video-

    25. SPSpeaker1:35:16

        -from nuclear annihilation. So here's a terrifying detail that the public does not know. So...

    26. SPSpeaker1:35:23

        Wow!

Episode duration: 1:35:25