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Joe Rogan Experience #1617 - Mike Baker

Mike Baker is a former CIA covert operations officer. He is now the president and cofounder of Diligence LLC, a global intelligence and security firm. Mike is also the host of "Black Files Declassified" now available on Discovery+.

Joe RoganhostMike Bakerguest
Jun 27, 20242h 59mWatch on YouTube ↗

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  1. 0:000:53

    China’s long-game: cyber theft, military growth, and the 2049 superpower plan

    1. JR

      (drumbeats) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.

    2. NA

      The Joe Rogan Experience.

    3. JR

      Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night. All day. (instrumental music plays) That sound is the sweet and sultry sound of Mike Baker lighting a cigar.

    4. MB

      (laughs) Hey, now.

    5. JR

      Good to see you, buddy. What's happening?

    6. MB

      Good to be seen. Good to be seen. Uh, you know, not much going on in these times of ours. (laughs)

    7. JR

      I'm very excited to talk to you because I had a guy on, uh, Jamie Metzl yesterday, a scientist who scared the shit out of me, talking about China. He was ta-

    8. MB

      (sighs)

    9. JR

      ... talking about China. We were talking about China amassing n- naval power-

    10. MB

      Oh.

    11. JR

      ... China's taking over of tech companies-

    12. MB

      Yep.

    13. JR

      ... and how, how huge they're getting and how much influence they have-

    14. MB

      (sniffs)

    15. JR

      ... over their people, as opposed to the way we do it. It's-

    16. MB

      Well, he's not wrong.

    17. JR

      No.

  2. 0:534:02

    SolarWinds vs. Microsoft Exchange: why China is the bigger cyber problem

    1. MB

      He's not... Yeah, I can't spot the lie in, in what, what you just said. But, uh, I mean, look, he- th- I mean, there's so much we c- we can, we can talk about. But (sighs) if you think about it, just in the past handful of months, um, there was this SolarWinds hack, right, by the Russians. So, the Russians go in. They hack into a company called SolarWinds, that is an IT management software company, that happens to be, um, fairly deep into government organizations, agencies, treasury, and, and a variety of others throughout the US government. And they're also into parts of the intel community, defense department, uh, and a lot of commercial sectors. So, anyway, the Russians figure this out. Now, around about December or January, um, Microsoft, you know, identified this as a problem and, and I think it was, uh, the head of Microsoft said, "This looks like the most sophisticated attack we've ever seen." So, this is December, January timeframe. And they're still trying to figure out the depth of this hack by Russians. At the same time, and going back months and months and months before, the Chinese (laughs) had been engaged in a more sophisticated attack that while everyone is focused on what's going on, and so fully aware that we got problems, right, from, from nation-states out there who don't like us, everybody's talking about SolarWinds. And now, it's, you know, they've just now released information about the Chinese attack against, uh, Microsoft Exchange servers, uh, running the Exchange email systems. And this thing is, uh, enormous. And so the Chinese... Yeah, I mean, we have been so focused for four years on the Russians, you know? And they're, you know, they- they're out there to cause us all sorts of problems, so we should be focused on them. But, but it's China that's the biggest problem. And so this guy is absolutely right, Jamie's right.

    2. JR

      It was terrifying.

    3. MB

      Yeah.

    4. JR

      Listen to what he was talking about, the way he was explaining how they, you know, they have this plan. What? I think he said 2049, to be the, the global superpower of the world-

    5. MB

      Mm-hmm.

    6. JR

      ... and essentially be take the place of what America used to be-

    7. MB

      Yeah, they would-

    8. JR

      ... do it their way.

    9. MB

      And do it their way, which means, "We're gonna bypass all the costs and the heavy lift of research and development over the years, and we're just (laughs) gonna steal everything."

    10. JR

      Yeah.

    11. MB

      And they've been doing it for decades. So, people think, "Oh, China, it's a problem. It's a pro-" Uh, we've talked about this before-

    12. JR

      Yeah.

    13. MB

      ... that, you know, this idea that perhaps this is just something relatively new or it's popped up during the previous administration of Trump. And honest to God's truth is, it's been going on for decades and they decided that that's how they're going to get to the top of the food chain, is by stealing shit, because it's a lot easier to hoover up everything and then reverse engineer it. Um, and the technology has made it even easier, right? It used to be old school. They'd go out and recruit somebody. They'd find some Chinese-American working for a company here in the States. They'd appeal to sort of, you know, you got to help the motherland and, and they would. And that was the old school way of doing it. But, you know, cyber theft is, it's, it's incredible what they're able to do. And this latest attack, well, they, they're still trying to sort out the mess, right?

  3. 4:026:28

    Chinese vs. U.S. intelligence tradecraft: “hoover everything” vs. surgical targeting

    1. JR

      So, when they do this, so if they get into this email server-

    2. MB

      Mm-hmm.

    3. JR

      ... they, they, they, th- do the- are they targeting anything specific? Is there specific companies? Are they just, like, throwing a net out there and seeing what they catch?

    4. MB

      (Sniffs) Yes, is the answer to, um, both of those.

    5. JR

      Mm-hmm.

    6. MB

      It's... (sighs) It looks like what happened here was that, (sighs) um, their, their initial point of attack or their initial f-focus was, uh, intelligence, right? So, then it branched out and it branched out very, very quickly, right, to hit everything. Small companies, medium-sized companies. And that's kind of the MO for the, the Chinese. The Chinese regime, right, the, uh, and the- their intel operations, um, they've got this long vision. And they've also got the resources, and they've got the desire to hoover up everything and then sort it out later. We take, uh, as, as, as a country, we take a very sort of targeted approach, right? We say, "Okay, this is a piece of information that's a priority tasking for the US, for our national security. We're gonna go out, we're gonna figure out who has access to it. We're gonna develop a very sort of surgical strike to figure out how do we get to somebody who's got this piece of information." That's typically how, uh, we or some of our allies would operate. The Russians, the Chinese have always had a different approach. I mean, the Russians is less elegant. The Russians will just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks, right? But the Chinese, they've got this long view and they've also got this ability. And they'll... So, in this particular attack that they're still trying to assess, um, that was perpetrated by, you know, um, Chinese state-sponsored hackers based in China, uh, they, um, they're just gonna take everything and then they'll sift through it. They'll figure out what they got. A lot of it's gonna be just, you know, chaff, not, not of interest, but they're gonna find a lot of gold in there too. And they're willing to do that because they've got the patience to do it.

    7. JR

      Mm-hmm.

    8. MB

      They'll, they'll develop a target. They'll develop a, a potential recruit for years and years and years. Or they'll, uh, they'll infiltrate, um, a society or an organization, right? I...They'll put a student out here who's actually working for the PLA, for their intel operations. And they'll put him out as an undergrad. And then he'll go to school, and then he'll get good grades, and he'll go to, uh, grad school. And then he'll get a job, and then he'll get another job. And then 30 years down the line, it may pay off. But they're willing to make that investment. So, all right.

  4. 6:288:46

    Deterrence in cyberspace: sanctions, escalation risks, and retaliation ambiguity

    1. JR

      So we should be scared?

    2. MB

      Well-

    3. JR

      (laughs)

    4. MB

      We shouldn't be scared but we should, yeah. Uh, we, I don't think we should be scared, but I think what we should be is, is pragmatic and understand why, um, for instance, I mean, there was a lot of, you know, hue and cry over the past four years. I can't believe I just said hue and cry.

    5. JR

      I don't even know what that means.

    6. MB

      I don't know.

    7. JR

      Hue?

    8. MB

      It's old-timey.

    9. JR

      Is it?

    10. MB

      (laughs) Yeah. Oh, by golly.

    11. JR

      Hue and cry?

    12. MB

      (laughs)

    13. JR

      What is hue and cry?

    14. MB

      Look at me. It's like the cat's pajamas. Um, uh, it's, uh, so you know, four years of Trump and sort of this antagonistic relationship with China, and people were all wringing their hands in Washington DC. You know, the, sort of the think-tankers and the traditional pundits and the diplomats of, of, of, uh, of, uh, the US, you know, the long-term people. They're, "Oh my God, we've got this adversarial relationship with China." Well, you know what? We better. Right? So that's not a bad thing. So I'm hoping the current administration maintains, to some degree, and we'll see what happens. They still haven't responded to the SolarWinds, to the Russian attack. Right? They're talking about it. Now they're saying they're gonna, they're gonna engage in several clandestine, uh, retaliatory acts. Well, it's not that clandestine because they've announced that they're gonna do it.

    15. JR

      (laughs)

    16. MB

      Um, and so, uh, you know, but, but I'm hoping that they will take serious action, uh, against the, the SolarWinds Russian act. But they've got to, with China, they, they've got to maintain this, uh, posture. We've got to, uh, make it clear and understood to the Chinese regime that we're not gonna put up with this shit. They're gonna keep doing it, but we gotta make it painful for them.

    17. JR

      So how do you make it painful?

    18. MB

      Well, you know, it's the old word sanctions. You gotta go with the sanctions because there's not much else. Trade wars. You know, I know everybody hates a trade war. Not everybody. But, um, you, you've, you've, you've got to find a way because the problem with, with cyber, um, shenanigans is that there's no real clear definition, right? We know if we, if, if a country fires a ballistic missile off, uh, you know, we know what the retori-tal- or retaliatory act is. We know what appropriate response is. In cyberspace, when you're talking about warfare, coming up with a definition is very difficult and hasn't been done yet. We've got Cyber Command, right? And we're still trying to sort out what are appropriate responses because it can escalate quickly, right? Next thing you know, they could shut down our infrastructure, right?

  5. 8:4627:06

    Power grids as the next battlefield: probing, mapping, and ‘playbooks’ for shutdowns

    1. JR

      Well, that's what I wanted to talk to you about.

    2. MB

      Yeah.

    3. JR

      Supposedly what they did in India.

    4. MB

      Mm-hmm.

    5. JR

      So, if- if you could explain that to people. They, they shut down the power grid in India, allegedly.

    6. MB

      (laughs)

    7. JR

      They said they didn't do it, but apparently there was some sort of a warning about the power going out, right?

    8. MB

      Yeah. Um, they've done it, um, I mean the Russians did, did it famously in Ukraine, right? I mean, not that long ago. And um, China's ability to interfere, uh, in, uh, infrastructure here in the US or in India or, uh, with our allies is because for years now they've been probing it. There's been testing going on. You know, there, we, we, we talk about, um... What's a good example? We talk about how, um, in the US we have three grids and I think people were, were stunned to find out that Texas has its own power grid. (laughs) Well, yeah. Uh, but it's not so much people were like, "Oh my God, look at Texas. They're terrible." Because, you know, they wanted to make it a political thing, right?

    9. JR

      Yeah.

    10. MB

      They wanted to make it sound like the, the reason why it's so terrible is because it's Republicans and they've got, they want their own independence. Well, no. All three grids are fucked, right? The East and the West and the, and- and the Texas grids are all cobbled together over the years. So it's a very, sort of, it's like a patchwork quilt. And they were never built to withstand, uh, physical attacks. I mean, you could drive by any substation, right? You could get close enough to pee on it. And there's, they, they certainly were never designed to, to withstand a cyber attack. So over the years, what goes on is essentially a mapping exercise, right? Where whether it's the Russians, whether it's the Chinese, whether it's the North Koreans using Chinese capabilities, whether it's the Iranians, whomever, they're in there probing and trying to understand the weaknesses and they're drawing up a map. Now, the reason why they're doing that is to have a game plan, right? And I guarantee you sitting on a desk somewhere not too far from, you know, Xi's office is a playbook that says, "If this thing escalates, here's what we're going to do." And if you think like it was bad in Texas, you know, uh, a couple weeks ago when, you know, the power was out, and it was bad, but think about that lasting for eight, 10, 12 weeks around the country. Right? Power grids shut down, what happens? You can't transport shit, right? You can't get cash. Fuel doesn't get to- to the gas stations. Food doesn't get to the stores. Uh, there's, you know, de- depending on the time of year, heat issues obviously. Water supplies. Uh, and that's where the next big battle is gonna be fought, right? They're gonna bring it to the homeland. And we will do the same thing, right? It's not like we're not doing it 'cause people always say when I say something like that, "Well, the US does it too." I'm thinking, "Well, fuck yeah, the US does it." We better. We better hope we- we're- we're- we're prepared.

    11. JR

      Does that, does that frustrate you, fru- frustrate you when people say that?

    12. MB

      Mm...

    13. JR

      "Well, the US does it too."

    14. MB

      Yeah, it does in a sense because... And this is where I think, um, you know, that, now personal opinion comes into it. Look, I spent most of my, my adult life overseas and I like to think that I've got a fairly pragmatic view on things. I do admit that I, you know, obviously look, I, I look at the US and I like to think, and I have seen on occasions, we, we do a lot of things for, for the right reason. Sometimes we don't do it properly, right? We- we make mistakes. Of course we make mistakes. Uh, but we try to self-correct. I guarantee you if we're talking about the major powers out there, if we're talking about China and us, if we're talking... The Chinese regime I'm talking about, obviously. If we're talking about, uh, the Russians, the Iranians, the North Koreans, we better hope that we stay up there, right? And are able to, um, exert influence and leverage and control at the top, right? Because...... if it's, if it's (laughs) ... Uh, and again, I, maybe I'm wrong here, but the Chinese don't view anything in an altruistic manner, the Chinese regime, right? It's all about self-interest. And sometimes, I'll tell you what's frustrating, sometimes is, we seem to be the only country out there that apologizes, right, for that sort of thing. And so when we act in our own best interest and we go, "Well, we're really sorry about that. We're," you know, "we're kind of acting in our own best interest." Well, every other nation does it, and they don't give a fuck.

    15. JR

      Yeah, but shouldn't we be the moral high ground for the world? I think we should. I think it's nice if we do all the same shit they do, we say, "Sorry." (laughs)

    16. MB

      (laughs) Yes.

    17. JR

      As, as long as we do all the same shit.

    18. MB

      Yeah, I guess it doesn't cost anything to say sorry. (laughs)

    19. JR

      It's not a bad thing. See, it's like we're-

    20. MB

      It's not a bad thing. No.

    21. JR

      We're setting a tone.

    22. MB

      Yeah, I guess that's true, as long as we're, as long as we're also then, at the same time, acting in our own best interests.

    23. JR

      Yes.

    24. MB

      Because we have to be, again, we have to be pragmatic. If we think that somehow... You know, look at climate change, that's, obviously it's back on the table, it's, uh, it's a big issue, it's a major policy direction. Hey, fine, great, who doesn't want clean energy? But, you know, to, to, to act as if China is not the, the, you know, the, the number one polluter out there is insane.

    25. JR

      Yeah. Yeah, that's-

    26. MB

      That's, that's where it gets weird, right?

    27. JR

      Yeah, it does get, it gets a little weird.

    28. MB

      It's a giant difference between the amount of particulates, the amount of pollution, the amount of CO₂. You know, um, I think they've, they've tried hard to mitigate that over the last few years in particular, but do you remember when they had the Beijing Olympics-

    29. JR

      Yes.

    30. MB

      ... and they had to shut everything down because the air quality was so bad-

  6. 27:0637:19

    Propaganda and polarization: how adversaries exploit social-media ‘attack vectors’

    1. JR

      ... on the straight and narrow the way allegedly we are. But the thing that bothers me more than anything about the United States currently is, like, there's a, there's, there's a unnecessary divide that I see amongst us. There's like-

    2. MB

      (laughs)

    3. JR

      There's a racial divide. There's a sexual orientation divide.

    4. MB

      Yeah. Yeah.

    5. JR

      There's a d- and I, I wonder how much of this is cultivated and how much of this is curated. Like, when I see, like, e- e- even w- weird things that don't make sense, like, uh, in Connecticut, 15 of their state titles, uh, state, uh, records for women's athletics are held by two biological males-

    6. MB

      Yeah.

    7. JR

      ... who identify as females. Tell me ... Look-

    8. MB

      Yeah.

    9. JR

      I- i- there's, it's one thing, there's, there's one thing to be tolerant and to be open-minded, but there's one thing to look at the whole picture and go, "What better way across the board with everything to get people upset and frustrated and distracted and constantly engaged in arguments and battle, than to seed social media with nonsense and-"

    10. MB

      Right.

    11. JR

      "... and, and, and constant propaganda." And c- and, and all ... We know from the, uh, Internet Research Agency and Renee DiResta's work and all this, that they, that Russia in particular and probably China and Iran are constantly flooding social media with arguments against all sorts of policies and pro all sorts of other policies simultaneously-

    12. MB

      Yes.

    13. JR

      ... just to encourage argument. And you wonder, like, how much of the racial divide in America is real? For sure there's real racists in America.

    14. MB

      Of course. Yeah, yeah.

    15. JR

      But also-

    16. MB

      Yeah. Yeah.

    17. JR

      ... for sure there's a lot of, like, malarkey.

    18. MB

      Yeah.

    19. JR

      There's a lot of shit that's like ... Most of us get along.

    20. MB

      Yeah.

    21. JR

      Most of us get along.

    22. MB

      Yeah. Most of us (laughs) I can't-

    23. JR

      We, we, I feel like-

    24. MB

      I agree with you. No, Republicans or Democrats, most don't give a shit-

    25. JR

      Yes.

    26. MB

      ... because they're worried about their daily fucking life.

    27. NA

      Right.

    28. MB

      Yeah.

    29. JR

      They're worried about their children.

    30. MB

      Yeah.

  7. 37:191:00:30

    Pandemic culture wars: masks, school closures, and the outrage economy

    1. MB

      Yeah, yeah. So, so they're important in that sense, but I think, I think that... Do I think that it's important to insist that, um-But again, that's, that's common sense, right? I don't want the federal government to say, you know, what you have to do, but it's, (sighs) it's like the masks. I, I, I tell you this. Flying into Texas, right, (smacks lips) um, on a, on an aircraft I was on, um, one of the flight, uh, attendants came up and kinda tapped me on the shoulder as we were getting ready to land and said, "Well, be careful because, you know, you know, Texas has gotten rid of the mask mandate, so..." And, and, and the point was, from the flight attendant, was, (sighs) you know-

    2. JR

      Did she just say it to you?

    3. MB

      Yeah. It's gonna be like the-

    4. JR

      She likes you.

    5. MB

      Yeah. It's wild west.

    6. JR

      That's, that is-

    7. MB

      It's gonna be the wild west.

    8. JR

      ... just kinda letting you know.

    9. MB

      Well, you know.

    10. JR

      She's like, "Mr. Pankow."

    11. MB

      You be careful out there because, you know.

    12. JR

      Because I like you.

    13. MB

      Yeah. And, uh, and so but, but the point...

    14. JR

      (laughs)

    15. MB

      My wife was sitting right next to me. There was nothing untoward. It wasn't like, you know...

    16. JR

      Okay. Whatever, man.

    17. MB

      No. We were not engaged in any shenanigans. But, but the point was, was that they looked at it and they go, "Oh, you know, Governor Abbot said this." And it's political, right?

    18. JR

      Yeah.

    19. MB

      But I, uh, my, point of my story is I walked off the plane. Everybody was wearing a mask.

    20. JR

      Yeah.

    21. MB

      Yeah.

    22. JR

      This is the thing the government A, uh, governor rather, Abbot said. He said, "I encourage you to wear a mask. You should still wear a mask, but I don't want the state to tell you what to do."

    23. MB

      Right. Right.

    24. JR

      That's what I support. This is-

    25. MB

      And if you don't want the state to tell you what to do, you shouldn't want the federal government-

    26. JR

      Exactly.

    27. MB

      ... telling you what to do.

    28. JR

      Exactly. Exactly.

    29. MB

      But everybody I've seen in Austin, wearing a mask.

    30. JR

      Wearing a mask. Yeah. Yeah.

  8. 1:00:301:02:22

    Neuralink and ‘mind-reading’ tech: utopia, control, and unintended consequences

    1. JR

      ... where the fuck the rational people are. One of the things that I'm worried about, and this is gonna sound really weird, but I'm worried that what this is really gonna... What, what, what all of this dissent and, and confusion is going to bring about is the rise of some sort of technological symbiosis where, where we can read each other's minds, where we can understand each other better, and it's gonna make us less human than we are currently. I'm really worried about that, and I'm...

    2. MB

      Um-

    3. JR

      I'm wor- I'm worried about these weird interfaces, like, you know, Elon Musk is, uh, trying to do this, uh, Neurolink thing.

    4. MB

      Yeah.

    5. JR

      And I think he's doing it because he wants to acc- he, he wants to increase the bandwidth between human beings and information, which is a very, uh, it's a noble concept.

    6. MB

      Yeah.

    7. JR

      You're gonna make people smarter, more access to information. One of the things he said to me, "You're gonna be able to talk without words."

    8. MB

      You know, I, I think... I don't know necessarily-

    9. JR

      I think we're gonna read each other's minds.

    10. MB

      I don't know if there's this... I don't know that there's a correlation between access to more information and getting smarter. Right?

    11. JR

      But this is what I think.

    12. MB

      So, yeah.

    13. JR

      I think ultimately there's going to be some sort of technology that literally allows people to understand people's intent and to read their thoughts and ideas. And I think it's not that far away. It might be 50 years, whatever it is, but we're moving in this direction where we're gonna be less human. And that might be... Because of all the bullshit that's been created by social media and by these conversations, by these algorithms that encourage people to be upset about things, that they, they encourage outrage. That we're, we're gonna move into some weird place where we're gonna have to change who we are in order to recognize what are the motives behind these, these different-... programs and campaigns that are, uh, m- forcing people into these situations where they hate each other.

  9. 1:02:221:24:06

    Polygraphs, traitors, and the limits of ‘truth detection’

    1. MB

      Yeah. Yeah, I, as somebody who's taken the polygraph, I, m- I don't know-

    2. JR

      Hook me up with all this stuff.

    3. MB

      ... four, four dozen, four dozen times-

    4. JR

      I wanna see if I can lie.

    5. MB

      Uh, yeah, well, what I was gonna say was, I mean, we used to say when, in the, with the polygraph that, "Oh, my God, can't you just put, like, a, like, a colander on our head and just read our, our thoughts? Because that would be a lot more pleasant and easier," right?

    6. JR

      Have you ever, uh, uh, you beaten a polygraph? Have you ever lied?

    7. MB

      Uh, no. I've had-

    8. JR

      You can be lied, though, right?

    9. MB

      ... I've had a lot of inconclusive. (laughs)

    10. JR

      Yeah?

    11. MB

      Because the polygraph, the thing about the polygraph is, A, it's, uh, it's all p- physiological ac- activity, right? It's-

    12. JR

      Right.

    13. MB

      ... blood pressure and sweat, and you know, you know...

    14. JR

      What is it? It's like heart rate, right?

    15. MB

      Heart rate, and it's, and it's, it's, um, it's an imperfect system. But-

    16. JR

      Yeah, because it doesn't hold up in court.

    17. MB

      Right. And it's also entirely dependent on the experience and the abilities of the examiner, right? And that varies 'cause it's a human effort, right? So you'll get a, a good polygrapher. You'll get one that's got less experience. You'll get one who's had a bad day, and it's just a, you know, whatever.

    18. JR

      Right.

    19. MB

      And, and I've seen these things fail miserably. I mean, w- obviously, in, in the intel community, in the agency, we've, you know, we've had people, uh, uh, Aldrich Ames, right, is a good example.

    20. JR

      Who's that?

    21. MB

      Uh, he was one of our, our, uh, traitors, right? So Aldrich Ames, uh, went to work for the enemy. And-

    22. JR

      Which enemy?

    23. MB

      Uh, the Russians. And sold out, caused a fair number of deaths. Uh, Hanssen is another good example, from the FBI. Uh, Edley Howard, I mean, oh, my God, Jim Nicholson. All these people that, that were able to beat the polygraph because essentially they're psychopaths, right? They don't see the difference between right and wrong. So the polygraph doesn't have any influence on them.

    24. JR

      Mm.

    25. MB

      If you're a Quaker, if you walk around and, and, and you feel bad about everything, right? "Oh, God, I remember I, I took that, uh, I took that, uh, th- those cookies when I was a kid, and I shouldn't have." Right?

    26. JR

      "I plugged that toaster in. I fucked up."

    27. MB

      Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it doesn't... (laughs) So what... (laughs) The old toaster incident.

    28. JR

      "I used that electricity."

    29. MB

      (laughs)

    30. JR

      "I'm a bad Amish-"

Episode duration: 2:59:08

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