EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,058 words- 0:00 – 2:22
Antibody test, boosters, and shifting COVID messaging
- NANarrator
(drumming music) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.
- NANarrator
The Joe Rogan Experience.
- JRJoe Rogan
Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day. (rock music) Hey, bro.
- MBMike Baker
Hello, Mike Baker.
- JRJoe Rogan
What's happening, buddy?
- MBMike Baker
Hey, you know what? Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
We turn to you...
- MBMike Baker
Uh, we turn to you to find out what's happening.
- JRJoe Rogan
... whenever shit gets completely sideways, it's time to bring in Mike Baker for, uh, some sort of analysis.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, that was... (laughs) Sounds very Sunday morning news talk show.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Thank you.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, great. I mean-
- MBMike Baker
Well, thanks, Chris Wallace, for having me. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Tell me, what the fuck is going on?
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
This place is falling apart. Who's running the show? What's happening?
- MBMike Baker
Well, first of all, I want to thank you for my antibody test.
- JRJoe Rogan
Ah.
- MBMike Baker
I'm psyched about that.
- JRJoe Rogan
You're psyched.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
You don't need that, that wacky booster.
- MBMike Baker
No, no, I got that, I got that... I got a picture of it and everything? I'm like, "Yeah."
- JRJoe Rogan
So, you must have been exposed. You've been vaccinated, but then-
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
... you probably got exposed to COVID somewhere along the line recently.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
You said you had a day where you were kind of run down?
- MBMike Baker
I had a day where I was a little bit run down, and then, uh... But I got th- I got the second of the, uh, vaccines, uh, shots was at the end of February. So, that's, what, seven months.
- 2:22 – 3:43
Biden’s booster optics and “performance art” politics
- MBMike Baker
Right. Well, now we got President Biden wearing a mask yesterday, getting a booster (laughs) , so...
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you think he got a booster?
- MBMike Baker
Uh...
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you think that was a real booster?
- MBMike Baker
You mentioned that before, before we started talking, and, and I hadn't thought about it before. But you know what? When I watched it on TV. When I watched the rev- you know, him getting his shot and his, his mask on, all I could think of was this is performance art. So-
- JRJoe Rogan
I didn't think they would take a chance.
- MBMike Baker
... the next step of performance art would be, like, not giving him the booster, but just giving him a shot, so...
- JRJoe Rogan
I think if they were gonna give him a booster shot, the last thing they would do is give it to him live on television. What if he dies?
- MBMike Baker
Right, right.
- JRJoe Rogan
What if he blacks out? What if he, like, gets it and faints? Like, because people have had very bad reactions, like, in the moment, for whatever reason.
- MBMike Baker
Right, right. No, they... Well, and they still... I think they still tell you, you know, they give you the shot and then they'll say, "Stick around for 10 or 15 minutes. They want to make sure you don't, you know, fall down."
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
So, uh, no, I, I agree because every other step of the way with any president, they're so careful.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes.
- MBMike Baker
Right? So careful about the messaging, the optics, the, the security issues related to it. Um, it would be not unheard of.
- JRJoe Rogan
Unless Kamala Harris-
- MBMike Baker
Let's put it that way. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... talked him into it. She's like, "Good, take it. Take a double. Give 'em a double."
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) I don't know. I don't think she wants the job anymore.
- JRJoe Rogan
Fill 'em up. You don't think so?
- MBMike Baker
I think she's... No, no.
- JRJoe Rogan
She seems quite quiet.
- MBMike Baker
She's been very quiet. I'm... Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Weird, right?
- MBMike Baker
I think she... I'm not sure. She may have left the country, uh...
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
So...
- 3:43 – 5:27
Border surge and the unexpected Haitian migration route
- JRJoe Rogan
There with that fucking whole border thing, like, "Oh, she's going to address the border." And now you look at it, you're like, "What is going on down there?"
- MBMike Baker
Apparently, she took care of it (laughs) .
- JRJoe Rogan
It's out-
- MBMike Baker
It's under control.
- JRJoe Rogan
They brought Haiti to the border.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, that's the crazy thing is, like, how many Haitian folks are trying to get in?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, how did that happen? What... I thought it was just Mexicans. Like... Well, it's Haitians.
- MBMike Baker
And if you look at the map, it's not a logical-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
... migration, right? If you look at-
- JRJoe Rogan
How did they get there?
- MBMike Baker
If you look at a map, right? You got Florida, which would seem to be, I don't know, maybe a natural point of landing for-
- JRJoe Rogan
Certainly closer.
- MBMike Baker
Yes. And, and then you've got, (laughs) you've got this diversion over to Texas and, uh... But look, I mean, we, we've been seeing this happen for a while. I mean, uh, I think it was Panama said... Look, this time last year, they were processing maybe 300, you know, uh, people coming in. And now they're up to like 30,000 a day coming in.
- JRJoe Rogan
What?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, mostly Africans and Haitians and other-
- JRJoe Rogan
Into Panama?
- MBMike Baker
Into Panama. Yeah, so-
- JRJoe Rogan
30,000 a day?
- MBMike Baker
Which is sort of the leading edge, right? You get... These are the indicators that say we're going to have an issue, right? Because they're not s-... They're not going to Panama to stay in Panama. They're not going to Mexico to stay in Mexico, right? So, it's, it's a, it's a waypoint. And, uh, you know, I don't... I get the idea everybody's looking for a better life. People want to get the hell out of, out of some place that they don't see any future. Um, you know, used to be that if you were seeking asylum, uh, you'd go to the next safe harbor, right? And, and that would be your point of, uh, you know, kind of where you're going and I'm looking for asylum. But now it's you can pass through any country and then get to America and claim asylum, even though you've been going through a variety of other countries-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... to get here. So, I, I'm not sure how, how the definition changed at some point. But, uh, no, I think, to get back to the original point, I think VP Harris, she's done a fine job with the border.
- 5:27 – 8:36
Horse patrol controversy: photo narratives vs facts
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs) So, what the fuck is going on where he was saying that they're going to punish the guys who are on horses because they're strapping these, these Haitian immigrants? Like, did he not even watch that?
- MBMike Baker
No. Does it mean... That's a crazy thing to say because- Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... that's... Isn't that defamatory?
- MBMike Baker
It is, uh, you know, in, in-
- JRJoe Rogan
Because they did not hit those guys-
- MBMike Baker
On planet Earth, it is, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... with straps. Like, he was pretending that they were whipping these guys.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
That's not true.
- MBMike Baker
No, it's not true. Those... They use what are called split reins. It's a simple thing. Um, I've been riding horses since I was a little kid. And, uh, what we're getting now is we're getting policy made by people in Washington DC who...... have no idea what a horse looks like, right? Y- uh, and they, they saw this picture, they leapt to a conclusion. The optic, you know, from their perspective, was awful, right? And, okay, yeah, you look at that and you go, "Okay, now put it in context." My thought when I see that picture is, "I wanna know what happened immediately before and what happened after."
- JRJoe Rogan
But let me say something real quick.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's impossible for him to be whipping him, because he's grabbing him.
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
Look at his arm.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. No, and that's also-
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, where that, that is his arm, right? See?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, and that's also a rein. That's a- (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... that's part of the reins. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Right. It's a rein-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... but it's very clear that his hand is grabbing him, and his other hand is up there. There's no hand to whip him.
- MBMike Baker
Right. No.
- JRJoe Rogan
It doesn't exist.
- MBMike Baker
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right?
- MBMike Baker
But that doesn't, that doesn't matter. That's, that's not ... Fact ... Uh, you know-
- JRJoe Rogan
But this is what-
- MBMike Baker
You know that. Facts, facts don't-
- 8:36 – 14:10
Afghanistan hearings: troop advice, memory gaps, and accountability theater
- MBMike Baker
E- exactly what it, what it says. And so that's, it, I, uh, again, I, I keep going back to that one point which is (laughs) it doesn't really matter what the facts are anymore. It does, it, uh, as an example, today was, now I'm kind of bouncing around a little bit, but today was, uh, uh, hearings up on the Hill. Uh, the, uh, Senate Armed Services Committee was holding hearings. So, who did they have? They had Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, they had, uh, uh, CENTCOM Commander, uh, General McKenzie, great guy. They had, uh, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, uh, General Milley. So, they all, to, to the, to the last one, said, "Yes, uh, we were advising the president that, um, th- you know, our advice is to maintain a small troop presence, minimum of 2,500 troops, right? Uh, in Afghanistan. Um, and our belief was, not that it would collapse as quickly as it did, but that it would collapse if you took those advisors, those troops out, that it would collapse maybe by fall, this fall." Um, and yet you've got the president saying, "I don't recall being told any of that." And that's okay now, because no, and, and nobody's questioning it, right? Nobody's saying, saying, "Well, well, hold on. No, how about some pushback?" How about saying, "What do you mean you don't recall? This is one of the most important decisions you've made or will be making and you don't recall whether your senior, top military advisors were telling you that, in their ad- advice, 'Keep the troops in there for a period of time.'" And he's saying, "I, I don't remember." And there's really no serious pushback. This whole hearing, if anybody wants to know what Washington, DC is like and how that city runs, I'd recommend maybe on Thursday watching some more of these hearings, uh, on the Afghanistan process, because it's just ... On one hand, it's very depressing. It's just a shit show. You've got the senators on the Armed Services Committee who have been there, who have been privy to all sorts of intelligence over the past few years, right, now sitting in a hearing to understand what happened, what went wrong with the Afghan withdrawal, and they're all acting as if, you know, they could be surprised by this. When, when these politicians have been sitting up at Capitol Hill being briefed on this shit, having the opportunity to ask questions, doing all the things they should be doing, but now because it's all theater, now they get to sit in a hearing in front of some of the s- the senior military commanders and act as if they're a little bit surprised by all of this. And, "Oh my God, how did it happen? How can we prevent it from happening again?" Senator Jeanne Shaheen actually asked that, I think it was of Milley saying, uh, "You know, well, how do we prevent this from happening again?" Are you fucking kidding me?
- JRJoe Rogan
Happening again?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. That's your question?
- JRJoe Rogan
Jesus Christ.
- MBMike Baker
Anyway. It's, it, it, it's, I tell you what, it was, it was, uh, yeah, it's been, it's been a fascinating-
- JRJoe Rogan
So-
- MBMike Baker
... period of time.
- JRJoe Rogan
Let me ask you this. So the President has the ability to say whatever the... You know, like, so if, if someone advises him to leave 2,500 troops, he has the ability to say, "I don't think so. No troops."
- MBMike Baker
Yes. Yes, he does. So he can take all that advice and, and the military leaders are saying, "Look, we, we provided this advice."
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
And, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
That's a strange thing, right? That one man-
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
... has the ability to make all these decisions. I mean, obviously this is what the president is, right?
- MBMike Baker
He's the commander-in-chief, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
But one, that one man has the ability to make these economic decisions, these decisions about healthcare, these decisions about taxes, these decisions about the military-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... these decisions about the, the future of the troops. I mean, there's even this discussion that they're, uh, they're throwing around about...... making it so troops that didn't, that won't get vaccinated, they get dishonorably discharged. Have you seen that?
- MBMike Baker
No. That's, that's a new one on me-
- JRJoe Rogan
This is-
- MBMike Baker
I had not-
- JRJoe Rogan
... a discussion.
- MBMike Baker
... seen that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Find out if that's true.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
I don't know, I mean, I don't even know if they can do that. But there was a soldier and she, she had made a video, and she is releasing this video explaining what's happening, that they're gonna get discharged if they re- refuse to get vaccinated.
- MBMike Baker
I can't believe they would dishonorably discharge them. That would be, that'd be a, a, a real fucking shock-
- JRJoe Rogan
See if you can find-
- MBMike Baker
... if that's what they were doing.
- JRJoe Rogan
See if that's true. You might-
- 14:10 – 19:37
Doha Agreement, conditions, and why the collapse was predictable
- MBMike Baker
to have it both ways, right? He wants to take credit for being brave and saying, "We're getting the hell out," right? But then he also wants to blame the previous administration for the reason why he had to be getting the hell out, right? So he wants to blame the Doha Agreement that Trump signed in February of 2020.
- JRJoe Rogan
And what was that?
- MBMike Baker
Well, that was, uh, when, when the Trump administration made a deal with the Taliban and in, in, uh, in February of 2020, and basically, it had conditions within that. And, and, and, uh, General Milley and McKenzie talked about those conditions, I think, uh, today, and they're in the hearings actually. Um, there were seven conditions placed on the Taliban for this agreement to go forward, and there was a May withdrawal date. Now, the administration, the previous administration, people don't want to hear this shit, right? Because they're so entrenched in their own camp, right? So people who are on the, the hard left or ... They're not gonna want to hear the fact that the Doha Agreement was based on conditions, right? But (laughs) the, the, the most senior military commanders today reaffirmed that, yes, there were seven conditions for that agreement to follow through, for us to follow through. We had eight conditions for the US. And now, during the course of the discussions and the negotiations, and this whole agreement was based on a power sharing. The idea was we want to create an opportunity for the Taliban and the, the Afghan government. We want them all to come together and create a power-sharing agreement. Well, uh, you know, uh, uh, on one hand, you could argue and say that's, that's never gonna happen.
- JRJoe Rogan
Sounds crazy. (laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, it sounds crazy, but that's, that's where they were. And you could also argue, and again, you know, because people are so entrenched, no one's wanna give any credit to whether they want to give credit to Biden or they want to give credit to Trump, or any Republican president or Democrat president, uh, you know, the Trump administration did kind of broker the hard, uh, heavy lift of saying, "We're getting the hell out." Right? There had been talk around the edges in previous administrations about, well, how long would it be there, right? But the Trump administration did finally actually say, "Fuck it. Let's get a negotiation. Let's go, and let's set a timeline to get the fuck out after 20 years, right or wrong." So they, they put that on the table. They set the table for, for that, you know, hard line withdrawal. But the Taliban never met those conditions. The only thing they did was not attack US troops directly. But as Milley and McKenzie said today, they never met any of the other conditions. So it had been explained to the Taliban that, "If that was the case and you don't meet these conditions, we're not going to leave in May. We're gonna just keep pushing the, the, uh, the withdrawal date further to the right."
- JRJoe Rogan
So why was the decision made to withdraw then?
- MBMike Baker
Well, look, in part I think because, uh, I think everybody got behind the idea that we can't stay there forever, because I think everybody, you know, understood that it just wasn't happening. They weren't buying what we were selling. They never have, right? I mean, and, and you don't want to be completely fatalistic all the time, but i- with Afghanistan, it's not a bad, it's not a bad frame of reference to remember all the other times that things like this have failed. And so the idea that somehow we were going to build a stable pseudo-democratic government in Afghanistan was always flawed, and it was, uh, there was never really any evidence to show that that was gonna happen, and it was propped up, and I think nobody really wanted to tell the truth, um, in positions of leadership, whether it was military or government or intel community. And so I think there was general agreement that, "Yeah, we gotta, we gotta get the fuck out." Uh, and then it came down to, "Well, how do we do that," right? And we faced some of the same problems that the old Soviets faced getting the hell out of Afghanistan. But I think with this case, you know, part of it was we had pulled advisors off the Afghan units, you know, two, three years ago, right? That had been a process. So the withdrawal process had been going on for a number of years, you know, over the past decade or so, you know, in a sense, right? We'd been drawing back, pulling out some resource, pulling out troops, lowering the troop numbers, um, putting more responsibility on contractors, and-... once you take the advisors out of the Afghan units, right, in a sense, you don't have really eyes and ears, right, inside the Afghan military. So, you can have, you know, President Ghani or, you know, some bullshit Afghan commander just telling you whatever you want to hear. But you didn't have a lot of folks at ground level working with the troops saying, "All right. This, (laughs) this shit's not gonna hold," right? Particularly after the Doha Agreement, right? Once I think the, the Doha Agreement was made, I think the writing's on the wall. It, even the Afghan military could see it, right? And they could read it. And they could say, "Okay. This shit's not gonna happen. We're not gonna keep getting money, we're not gonna keep getting advisors, and, um, we're not gonna get the air support that is really the only thing that keeps us in, in, in power." So, (sighs) you know, at some point, over a period of a few years, we are, we were degrading our own ability to, to actually understand just how bad it was getting, right? And, um, so, (sighs) then it became a logistical exercise. You gotta move personnel and you gotta move material out of the country. And that's where, y- you could argue it all kinda went sideways.
- 19:37 – 25:38
Leaving gear behind and the speed of the Afghan government’s fall
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, they left behind how much shit?
- MBMike Baker
A lot of shit.
- JRJoe Rogan
A lot of shit.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
Crazy shit, right?
- MBMike Baker
No. We left, we left, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Blackhawks?
- MBMike Baker
Yes. Yeah, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars as a conservative estimate. Uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Why?
- MBMike Baker
That's a conservative estimate. Well, because, (sighs) uh, partly because you could argue that, um, some of the material was decommissioned. You know, some of the heavier platforms were, uh, made non-functioning. Okay, fine. Um, I don't know, to answer the question, I don't know why the military wouldn't have moved more of the gear, the, the, the light gear out there. In other words, the, the night vision devices. The, the, uh, the, the weaponry, right? The small arms, um, ammunition. Why not spend three or four months- (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... getting that gear the hell out, right? You don't have the troops to, to, that, that require them.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
So, now you've got all this shit stored. Now they, the thought could've been that this is for the Afghan military, they're gonna hold. But here's the, here's the thing that, that, interesting point that came out from General Milley and General McKenzie w- uh, during these hearings is that, they claim, they're stating, and I have no reason not to believe them, they're stating that the general consensus by the fall of 2020, right, was that without the troops in there, once you take the US troops out, and the, um, and, and the money, then uh, the government's gonna collapse probably by fall of this year, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
And it took like three hours.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, it took like, it took, yeah, it took 11 days.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Now, in, in a classic piece of Washington-speak, I think it was, uh, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in answering a question said, "No. We never saw any assessment that said that (laughs) the government would collapse in 11 days." He's very specific, right? (laughs) He's not saying, uh, "in short order".
- JRJoe Rogan
Period, yeah.
- MBMike Baker
He's just saying 11, "I didn't see one for 11 days." I'd say, they, we had one for like two weeks, but-
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Uh, so that's, that's, that's just the shit that happens on the, on the side, but-
- JRJoe Rogan
So, they assumed the Afghan Army eventually was not gonna fight the Taliban?
- MBMike Baker
Yes. Yeah. So there was, what they're saying is we all, and look, the intel community, we've been talking about that for years. We, we knew, (sighs) all you had to do was study the, the, the Soviet papers during their time, their occupation in Afghanistan, to understand how we were pr- likely gonna replay that scenario. And we did, right? So, y- you know, you could argue that, uh, (laughs) what should've happened was years ago, we should've like looked around and thought, "This is a bullshit exercise," right? Doesn't mean that the, that, y- y- you know, (sighs) and I think the military today, uh, the senior commanders today, and during this week, I think you'll see them make a huge effort to say, "First and foremost, the veterans, uh, and, and everyone who fought there, and, and, and all the, the, the hardship, it wasn't, wasn't in vain." I think they're gonna focus on that. And, and they're gonna say, 'cause for two decades, uh, uh, the, you know, we haven't been attacked on our home soil. And in a narrow definition, yes, that's why we went in. And then it kinda got blown up into this idea that we were gonna create, you know, like this, this bastion of democracy (laughs) in Afghanistan.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. But it's been widely known forever that Afghanistan is insane. Like, it's impossible to manage.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
The Soviets couldn't handle it. L- you know, the, the, the whole area is incredibly mountainous. Like, it's very remote. It consists of these little clans that are run-
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
... by warlords. Like it's not as, like, Kabul is essentially the only real city, right?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- 25:38 – 37:38
Bagram, air support, and the difference between leaving vs executing the exit
- JRJoe Rogan
So the point is that Afghanistan is... You can't really control it.
- MBMike Baker
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's incredibly rugged terrain. You, you're not gonna get vehicles in there, right? It's mostly mountainous areas, unless you're flying helicopters and landing them in spots-
- MBMike Baker
If you don't have air support.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
And that's really where this fell down. And they, and they... And, and, and the idea... And there's been a lot of talk about, why did we close Bagram, right? Why, why did they close the air base before they'd finished this whole process, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
So, I guess one of the things is, this is very layered. And, and, and again, as with just about everything else that goes on in the world today, because everybody's got, again, you know, attention deficit disorder. Um, nobody takes the time to look at all the various layers, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
So this fell down, uh, as you've said before, it fell into teams, right? So you're, you're either, uh, pro-Biden or you're, you're... or you're not, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
You're either pro-vaccine or you're not. It's always... And, and that's not the case, right? There's, there's all sorts of ground in between those two positions. And so I think with, with, uh, with, with Bagram, the idea was, um, in a sense, that wasn't there necessarily. Because that's some... Bagram Air Base is like 30 miles away from the US embassy in Kabul. And so would that have been an effective, uh, departure point, you know, for all the people we were looking to move out during the withdrawal? Okay. It... You could argue it would be helpful, right? But it wasn't right there. And that's their point. Well, you know, Hamid Karzai Airport was right there. It was much more immediate. We needed to secure that. And by the way, if we're gonna keep Bagram open, we needed, you know, upwards of 5 or 6,000 troops to secure it. Right? But it all comes back to this idea that, you know, the, the agreement with the Taliban. Because both sides are using it, right, in, in, in sort of an effort to cover their own ass. So the Democrats are using it because, "Well, we were boxed in. We had no choice." Right? "Well, Trump made a bad deal," right? "And so we had to go with it," right? "Because if we didn't go with it, the Taliban would start attacking us again." And then you go, "Well, yeah. No shit," right? But there you go. And the Republicans are using it, you know, by saying, "There were conditions built into the agreement, and you didn't have to honor the agreement." Now, that would have meant we would have had to probably put more troops in, you know, to secure the people that we already had there, the advisors that were there today. So it's a morass, right? And over top of all that is this general feeling, I think, that most people had, that it was time to leave, right? So again, it's, it's the process of leaving. It wasn't the decision to leave. It was the process of how you executed that. And Bagram was kind of a central point in that. Because if you could maintain air cover for the Afghan military, right, during the point when you're withdrawing, you can prevent the Taliban from doing what they did, which was that immediate, you know, overrun of the country. They just... They couldn't do it with our air support. Um, without our air support, I mean.
- JRJoe Rogan
So the questions that someone would have on the outside is, did this ha-... When this happened, did this strengthen the Taliban? And did it strengthen not just their military position, because they have all these new weapons and everything, but did it also strengthen morale? Because they, they now forced the Americans out and beat them, and then punished all of the allies that worked with the Americans, which is devastating. Because you gotta think now people are gonna be way more reluctant to cooperate with Americans and help them-
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
... in a cer-... in a similar situation. Because we kind of abandoned all those people that were translators, all those people that... There was a lot that got left behind, right?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, there were. And, and-
- JRJoe Rogan
Some got rescued.
- MBMike Baker
Uh, uh, yeah, they, they, they... You know, they're claiming... I think they're... Look, what's happening is, is they're trying to say, "Look, the withdrawal process was a huge success." Um, and, uh, I think what, what they-
- JRJoe Rogan
They said that?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Oh, yeah. Well, President Biden said this was an extraordinary success, the whole process. Now, I think strategically you, you could argue that it's not a success. You know, from a logistical operation, did they lift a lot of people out of the country in a short order of time? Yes. But was it chaotic? Absolutely. Did things happen that shouldn't have had to happen? Uh, yes. So I, I, I think it's really hard to define this as a success. But, you get... You know, in their position, they gotta spin it the best they can. But if you think about, you know, what you were, what you were just saying, in a small sense, it's tough enough. If I, if, if I'm in Afghanistan and I'm trying to develop sources, uh, inside the country while I'm there that can tell me about, uh, uh, Taliban movement, right? So I'm trying to convince some tribal elder somewhere, uh, for whatever reason. Maybe his kid was killed by the Taliban, right? Maybe the Taliban, um, you know, uh, took his, you know, underage daughter into marriage. Maybe they denied him medical care. Whatever. You're always looking for... It doesn't matter whether it's this case or whether you're-... recruiting anybody, you're always looking for a point of weakness, right? In a sense. I know it sounds wrong, but you're looking for leverage. And so, I'm trying to convince this, this person to work with me, right? And provide me with intelligence. Well now, that's, (laughs) that's counter to his best interest, in a sense, right? Because he's probably gonna think, "Okay, well, if I get found out, I'm getting whacked, uh, so it's not gonna end well for me."
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
Now, imagine trying to do that now when you don't have a presence on the ground. (laughs) You still need that insight, you still need those people reporting to you, but now you've just, you know, gotten off the X and left some people there, and you, you, you've bugged out, and they look at this and go, "Well, what the hell is now is my incentive for helping the Americans, providing them..." And this feeds into... I'm jumping all over the fucking place. This feeds into this, this talk now that's become the favorite phrase in Washington of, uh, over-the-horizon capability. Uh, which means conducting operations from a distance, because you don't have resources within that area of operations. So you're, you're over the horizon, but you're gonna dip in occasionally whenever the, y- you need to and c- carry out some type of operation. W- (sighs) and, um, so yeah, to, to answer your question, it, it, it makes it very, very difficult. Morale was, was, uh, uh, was already not good. Um, once the Doha Agreement, I think, uh, was signed... And again, look, I think, you know, the Doha Agreement, somebody had to finally memorialize the idea that we were getting the fuck out of Afghanistan, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
And so, they did. And they-
- JRJoe Rogan
Is that a g- is it a good thing that we got out of Afghanistan?
- MBMike Baker
(sighs) Um, in a very pragmatic sense, um, yes. Yeah, because, um, I don't know what the hell we were doing there. I mean, the idea was fine, we go in initially, and we punish those who were responsible for 9/11, right? And we, and we tell them, "Don't let this happen again," and then we should've gotten the, the hell out, right? And, and avoided the last 20 years, because we'd had a recent case study with the Russians. We knew from what the Russians did there, uh, you know, how it could end and how it likely could end. And yet, we thought, because, you know, there's always hubris involved, we thought, "We're gonna do better." Look, the Taliban had no place to go when the Russians were there, right? So they're just gonna wait it out. It's like Vietnam. The Viet Cong had nowhere to go. They're going to wait, right? They know we're rolling troops out there on a, you know, six or eight or 12-month deployment. They're all gotta go home, (sighs) you know, and they wanna get home. These people have no place to go. Taliban, again, same thing this time around. So I don't know why we, w- (laughs) anybody should be surprised about the overall result. But I d- yes, I do think it was, it was time to go. I think it was time to go quite some time ago. (laughs) That was very poetic, but, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... anyway, yeah, it's, uh, it's just nobody spoke the truth, uh, in Washington about the situation in Afghanistan because nobody wanted to hear it, right? And they felt that it wasn't politically a good move. And so, nobody wanted to stand up, 'cause they're all so fucking worried about their jobs (sighs) and say, this is my opinion, so it's, uh, w- what it's worth, a- and say the tough things about the situation there, either because they felt like, "If I say something negative about what we're doing in Afghanistan, it's disrespecting the troops," which it's not, right? Or, um, you know, uh, "I'll probably get drummed out of my, you know, nice political position," right? So yeah, that's, that's... And, and when you watch hearings that take place in Washington, DC, the whole thing is about just finding somebody to blame other than your own self or your party.
- JRJoe Rogan
And it seems like no one's gonna get blamed.
- MBMike Baker
No one's gonna get blamed. No. No. That would, that would, that would mean that there would be accountability. And, and I don't think (laughs) I don't know when that happened last in Washington, DC.
- 37:38 – 42:53
Wokeness in intel/military recruitment and vulnerability to foreign manipulation
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you get concerned when you see all this, um, sort of woke ideology making its way into the military?
- MBMike Baker
Uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
You, I know you've seen these ...
- MBMike Baker
Oh, yeah. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
You know what I'm talking about?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, I do.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, yeah. Um, yeah, I got a lot of calls about the, uh, the CIA recruitment, uh, video.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, what the fuck was that?
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Explain that to me.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, that was, um, um ... Look, somebody, uh, somebody decided that the right messaging for trying to improve recruitment ability, uh, for the agency ... And mind you, the agency isn't lacking in, in candidates, right? We have a, a lot of people applying, uh, for the agency. Uh, but at some point someone thought the right message was to just go all out on the, whatever you want to call it, the woke issue and the, you know, inclusion. And, and so they had a, they had a, an individual who basically spent her time talking ... While she said she didn't want to be identified in such a manner or in such a manner, then she then proceeded to identify herself in these various, you know, uh, categories.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
Um, and, uh, I just think somebody should've test marketed that, that message (laughs) inside the agency first before they decided to run with it, because they got ... They, you know, they, they took a lotta, uh, heat, you know, and people just thought it was ridiculous. Uh, but I get what they're doing, you know. You have to have, from an operational perspective, you know, set aside all the woke issues and the desire to be inclusive and everything, just from an operational perspective, you know, you want an intel service, uh, that is remarkably diverse, because you're operating all over the world.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
And, and, and you don't want everybody to have the same mindset and the same ideas and sitting around a table dealing with a, a potential problem, 'cause they're all gonna throw the same idea at it, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
So you want a variety of, of, of personalities and backgrounds and everything. But I just think that they, you know, they, they could've test marketed that one a little better. But the, the m-
- JRJoe Rogan
But it's not just about the agency too.
- MBMike Baker
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
There was, there was another one that was, uh, who, w- w- what was the person that was put in charge of ... Like, there was a, someone who was put in charge of inclusiveness and diversity in the military, right?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Wasn't there ...
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
S- ... And, and people were like, "Hey, hey, hey, what the fuck is this about?" Your ... "This is all woke talk." When woke talk invades the military, like woke-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... woke to me-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... is, like, well-intentioned people that have bought into a cult. That's what a lot of it is.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) Yeah.
- 42:53 – 57:15
KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov and ‘active measures’ in the social media era
- JRJoe Rogan
... that video from, uh... Did you ever see the video from the KGB? Uh, th- there was a guy from the KGB-
- MBMike Baker
Ugh.
- JRJoe Rogan
... in the 1980s that was talking about the plan to destroy America. Have you ever seen that video?
- MBMike Baker
I have. Yeah. I know what you're talking about.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's a wild video.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Should we play it?
- MBMike Baker
Yep. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you know the video, Jamie? Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
If it's still up and running, go. Yeah. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Play a little bit of this.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
This is KGB defector, Yuri Bezhem, Bezmenov's-
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
... warning to America. Let's listen to some of this.
- NANarrator
... times before about ideological subversion. That is a phrase that, uh, I'm afraid some Americans don't fully understand. When, uh, the Soviets used the phrase, "ideological subversion," what do they mean by it?
- NANarrator
Ideological subversion is, is the process which is legitimate, overt, and open. You, you can see it with your own eyes. All, all you have to do, all American mass media has to do is to unplug their bananas from their ears, open up their eyes, and they can see it. There is no mystery. There is nothing to do with espionage. I know that espionage intelligence gathering looks more romantic, it sells more deodorants through the advertising probably-
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- NANarrator
... and that's why the-
- JRJoe Rogan
Sells a lot of deodorant.
- NANarrator
... Hollywood producers are so crazy about James Bond type, uh, of, of thrillers. But in reality, the main emphasis of the KGB is not in the area of intelligence at all. According to my, uh, opinion and opinion of many defectors of my caliber, only about 15% of time, money, and manpower is spent on espionage as such. The other 85% is a slow process, which we call either ideological subversion or active measures, (Russian) , in the language of, of the KGB, or psychological warfare. What it basically means is to change the perception of reality of every American to such an extent that despite of the abundance of information, no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the interest of defending themselves, their families, their community, and their country. It's a great brainwashing, uh, process, which goes very slow and it's divided in, in four basic stages. Uh, the first one being demoralization. It takes from 15 to 20 years to demoralize a nation. Why that many years? Because this is the minimum number of years which requires to, uh, educate one generation of students in the country of, of, of your enemy, exposed to the ideology of the enemy. In other words, Marxism-Leninism ideology is being pumped into the soft heads of, of, of at least three generations of American students without being challenged or counterbalanced by the basic values of Americanism, American patriotism. The result? The result you can see. Most of the people who graduated in '60s, dropouts or half-baked intellectuals-
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- NANarrator
... are now occupying the positions of power in the government, civil service, business, mass media, educational system. You are stuck with them. You cannot get rid of them. They are contaminated. They are programmed to think and react to certain stimuli in a certain pattern. You cannot change their mind even if you, if you expose them to authentic information. Even if you prove that white is white and black uh, uh, is black, you still cannot change the basic perception and the logical behavior. In other words, these people, uh, uh, the process of demoralization is complete and irreversible. To get rid society of these people, you have, you need another 20 or, or, or 15 years to educate a new generation of patriotically minded and, and, and, uh, common s- commonsense people who would be acting in favor and in the interest of, of the, uh, of the United States society.
- NANarrator
And yet these people who have been programmed and as you say, in place-
- NANarrator
Yes.
- NANarrator
... and who are favorable to an opening with the Soviet concept-
- NANarrator
Mm-hmm.
- NANarrator
... these are the very people who would be marked for extermination in this country?
- NANarrator
Most of them, yes.
- NANarrator
Mm-hmm.
- 57:15 – 59:16
Hypersonic weapons: why Mach 5 changes deterrence and defense
- MBMike Baker
Um, and so once again, you're left with a dwindling center. Um, but, uh, speaking of weapons technology, the US just, uh, tested a hypersonic, uh, weapon. Um, and that's, that's something to keep an eye on when people are thinking, "Where, where's all the money going?" Uh, next, uh ... I mean, it's, it's really the top priority for the US. It's a top priority for Russia. It's a top priority for China. So, anyway, uh, the US just the other day successfully tested a, a new, uh ... There you go. A new airbreathing hypersonic weapon.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mach 5 hypersonic missile. What does Mach 5 mean?
- MBMike Baker
That's about ... Mach 5-
- JRJoe Rogan
Five times the speed of sound.
- MBMike Baker
It's about 3,800 and a change in terms of miles per hour.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
3,800 some odd miles per hour.
- JRJoe Rogan
Five times the speed of sound?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Jesus.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. I know. And, and the whole idea is when people say, "Well, why is hypersonics? Why is that important?" Um, it's because whoever develops this capability first, uh, on the, on the, on the planet basically has defeated all air defense systems. Right? Which in the past were always designed for ballistic missiles. And so it's ... It moves at such a rate that you've removed the reaction time and it also can move in such an unpredictable fashion. A ballistic missile goes up and it comes down and it's all in a certain pattern. Um, and you can predict that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Did you see the numbers there?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
A mile a second.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. So, you can imagine that coming. And you imagine having no time to react because you don't even know where it's coming from.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
And so basically that's why hypersonic weapons and, and the ability to counter them is really the, the top technology priority for the US. And it's where a lot of them, a lot of ... We talked about where the money goes. It's where a lot of money goes. And because the Russians and the Chinese are, are busy, busy, busy trying to develop this because whoever does it, again, it renders existing air defense systems, uh, useless.
- JRJoe Rogan
Which brings me to UFOs. Tell me what you know.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) Well-
- JRJoe Rogan
Because-
- MBMike Baker
If I, if I may, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
... 'cause I think there's some shit going down.
- 59:16 – 1:05:32
Drone swarms and AI-enabled warfare: reconnaissance today, autonomy tomorrow
- MBMike Baker
There is some shit going down and it's actually really interesting. And this would be a perfect time for me to plug the second season of, uh, of my Science Channel Discovery Network series, uh, Black Files Declassified. Uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Science Channel Black Files Declassified-
- MBMike Baker
(gasps)
- JRJoe Rogan
... hosted by Mike Baker. Look at that handsome bastard.
- MBMike Baker
Look at that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Look at you.
- NANarrator
I now run a global intelligence and security firm. My experiences have given me unique insight and access to a secretive world. Each year, the US government hides over $60 billion in a black budget, hidden away, unseen, unexplained.
- MBMike Baker
Holy smokes. Look at that. Look, look, look, look at the light.
- NANarrator
Full force. Go. Holy shit.
- NANarrator
The money funds classified programs, projects, operations, and tech developments. And each of these activities is a black file. Now, travel with me as we open up the black files. What you learn will change the way you think about our past and our future.
- JRJoe Rogan
Look at that. That looks very exciting, Mike.
- MBMike Baker
Everybody should be watching. Everybody.
- JRJoe Rogan
They should.
- MBMike Baker
It's coming to you in the new year. Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Are you gonna tell people what's going on with UFOs?
- MBMike Baker
Oh, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
What was that thing with the red lights that shot up there? What was that?
- MBMike Baker
It's a drone swarm.
- JRJoe Rogan
A drone swarm.
- MBMike Baker
It's a drone swarm.
- JRJoe Rogan
Drones.
- NANarrator
Dollars in a black-
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) Let's just keep watching it. Put it on continuous loop-
- JRJoe Rogan
Put it on a loop.
- MBMike Baker
... for the next-
- JRJoe Rogan
Play in the background so-
- MBMike Baker
... next hour.
- JRJoe Rogan
... background noise. Yeah. That drone swarm right there?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Yeah, it's a drone swarm.
- JRJoe Rogan
How big are those drones? They look tiny.
- 1:05:32 – 1:26:44
China’s tech leverage and the ARM ‘semiconductor heist’ story
- MBMike Baker
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
... but I wanna get to this. While we're talking about China and artificial intelligence, uh, Saagar from, uh, Breaking Points put up a video recently where he was talking about there was an AI company that, um, sold 50% or 51% to China, and they... Th- that China immediately repurposed the entire company and sort of kicked them out and renamed it. It's called something different. They have no recourse and they now, now hold all of the artificial intelligence that this company had. This company thought they were gonna work with them and make a bunch of money, and China just sort of took it over.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Because they had like a 51% control of it, and now they're fucked because-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... they changed the name of it. They're calling it Chinese technology. Saagar did a way better job of, uh, explaining it than I can. Let's see if we can find that, Jimmy.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, but no, but that's, but that's what's happened to a variety of companies that always seem to think that they can do business with the Chinese regime-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
... and come out on top or-
- JRJoe Rogan
They get greedy, right?
- MBMike Baker
You know, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
They think of all these-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... billions of dollars they're gonna make from this deal and they start thinking about ski chalets and driving a Ferrari.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
And then the next thing you know, they're, you know-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, no, it's true. And, and, and so whether it's a pharmaceutical company thinking they're going to go over and somehow protect their R&D but build a facility over there.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
And suddenly, uh, you know, or it's a software company that loses all their, you know, their coding. It's, it's always the same result, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
It's amazing-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... that they don't know that or that they're willing to listen to what the Chinese are selling-... them, you know, on the, on the subject.
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, "Yeah, we love you. We're gonna work with you." And then, boom, they just change the name, completely repurpose all the technology, say it's Chinese technology.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
When, when Saagar was explaining it, it's, it's a stunning story.
- MBMike Baker
Well, it's-
- JRJoe Rogan
See if you can find... Have you found it yet?
- MBMike Baker
And it happens, uh, it happens, uh, a lot more often in, in some very pedestrian, uh, companies and, and, and sectors. But it's, it's just emblematic of... The Chinese understand and have understood for, for generations the lure of their market to the West, right? Everybody's wanted to get into that market, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
Episode duration: 2:51:35
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