Joe Rogan Experience #1735 - Peter Attia

1. 0:00 – 1:27

   Settling into Austin and a detour into corporate culture wars

   1. NANarrator0:00

      (drumming) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out. The Joe Rogan Experience. (rock music)

   2. JRJoe Rogan0:06

      Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day. Hello, Peter.

   3. PAPeter Attia0:13

      Hello, Joe.

   4. JRJoe Rogan0:14

      Good to see you.

   5. PAPeter Attia0:14

      Likewise.

   6. JRJoe Rogan0:16

      (laughs) Um, we're fucking neighbors, man. How you liking the move?

   7. PAPeter Attia0:21

      Loving it.

   8. JRJoe Rogan0:21

      Uh, you've been here a year now, right? A solid year?

   9. PAPeter Attia0:23

      A little over, yeah.

   10. JRJoe Rogan0:24

       Yeah? Loving it?

   11. PAPeter Attia0:26

       I don't know why it took so long.

   12. JRJoe Rogan0:28

       Yeah, it's a different world, right?

   13. PAPeter Attia0:30

       Yeah.

   14. JRJoe Rogan0:30

       Like, when you live in a place that only has a million people, it's like, "Oh." Like, "Wow, this is, uh... You could do everything here." ...

   15. PAPeter Attia0:37

       And if I, if I'd done this three years earlier, I could have paid half as much for my house too, that's the other thing that's like just-

   16. JRJoe Rogan0:41

       Right. (laughs)

   17. PAPeter Attia0:42

       ... would have been so smart to have done this in 2017.

   18. JRJoe Rogan0:46

       Well, lucky you did it then and not now, 'cause now it's even harder.

   19. PAPeter Attia0:49

       Oh.

   20. JRJoe Rogan0:49

       It's harder to find a house. It's almost impossible.

   21. PAPeter Attia0:53

       Yeah, I mean, every person we introduce to our real estate agent says the same thing, which is like...

   22. JRJoe Rogan0:58

       You have to build.

   23. PAPeter Attia0:59

       Yeah.

   24. JRJoe Rogan1:00

       Yeah, it's that, it's that wild, which is, uh, I guess, good. I don't know. You know? It's, uh, it's tricky, 'cause, you know, Google's building their... They have this gigantic sail-looking building-

   25. PAPeter Attia1:12

       Yeah.

   26. JRJoe Rogan1:12

       ... near the river. Have you seen it?

   27. PAPeter Attia1:13

       Oh, yeah, yeah.

   28. JRJoe Rogan1:14

       Yeah. So there, there's gonna be a bunch of wokesters running around from that place. They're gonna have to fill that building up, you know?

   29. PAPeter Attia1:20

       (laughs)

   30. JRJoe Rogan1:20

       And then, you know, you got... Is there a more woke corporation than Google?
2. 1:27 – 10:31

   Microsoft’s land acknowledgments, pronoun introductions, and the logic debate

   1. PAPeter Attia1:27

      Did you hear... Did you hear that thing Ben Shapiro who did with-

   2. JRJoe Rogan1:30

      No.

   3. PAPeter Attia1:31

      Oh my god.

   4. JRJoe Rogan1:32

      I didn't hear it. What'd he do?

   5. PAPeter Attia1:33

      He did... It's the fun... It's so funny that I went and listened to it again, recorded it on my phone off my computer just so I could text it to my friends.

   6. JRJoe Rogan1:40

      (laughs)

   7. PAPeter Attia1:40

      So, they had this thing where, um...

   8. JRJoe Rogan1:44

      I saw the thing.

   9. PAPeter Attia1:45

      Where they introduced, e- everyone introduced themselves.

   10. JRJoe Rogan1:46

       With their pronouns and they described themselves.

   11. PAPeter Attia1:49

       You're right. So I would say, "Hi, my name is Peter Attia. I'm a light-skinned guy with a shaved head wearing a green shirt. I go by he/him." And then-

   12. JRJoe Rogan1:56

       Yeah, and you would say Caucasian probably or...

   13. PAPeter Attia1:57

       Yes, yes, I would, I would, right.

   14. JRJoe Rogan1:59

       Yeah.

   15. PAPeter Attia1:59

       And, um, and then... but then one of the women said, "Before we begin, I would just like to state that our land-"

   16. JRJoe Rogan2:07

       (laughs) Yes.

   17. PAPeter Attia2:08

       "... the land that this building sits on was actually once owned by or, you know..."

   18. JRJoe Rogan2:12

       Yeah.

   19. PAPeter Attia2:13

       And she rattled off 17 tribes.

   20. JRJoe Rogan2:15

       Yes.

   21. PAPeter Attia2:16

       At which point, like, my brother was like, "Well, just show me the title deed. Like, is it yours or is it theirs?"

   22. JRJoe Rogan2:21

       (laughs)

   23. PAPeter Attia2:21

       "'Cause if it's theirs, you really should give it back."

   24. JRJoe Rogan2:24

       What is happening?

   25. PAPeter Attia2:25

       I-

   26. JRJoe Rogan2:25

       What's going on? But Microsoft, which is, uh, interesting, they were never like this. Like, what... All the sudden, they went full tilt. They just went from 0 to 11.

   27. PAPeter Attia2:37

       (laughs)

   28. JRJoe Rogan2:37

       Right? They don't have a history of, like, ads that were woke.

   29. PAPeter Attia2:41

       I don't know. It's, it's, it has provided-

   30. JRJoe Rogan2:44

       Like give me some volume on this 'cause it's so stupid. (laughs)
3. 10:31 – 14:41

   From words to policies: “don’t say penis” and the ‘point of privilege’ phenomenon

   1. PAPeter Attia10:31

      But even outs- even outside of that, um, m- my, my roommate from med school who's a urologist called me yesterday because he couldn't wait to tell me this ridiculous story. So, uh, a colleague of his, this female urologist who's badass surgeon was giving a lecture to the medical school, uh, which is common, right? You'll always have the surgeon will come in or the doctor will come in. And before she got up to give her lecture, the dean said to her, I'm not making this up, this is a urologist giving a lecture to a group of medical students, said, um, "I would appreciate it if you would not use the word penis during this lecture." 'Cause-

   2. JRJoe Rogan11:08

      He said it before the lecture?

   3. PAPeter Attia11:10

      Yeah. She said, "It's an anatomic term. I'm a urologist. What would you like me to say?" And what, what ... He came up with some idiotic ... Oh, uh, (laughs) he said, um, "Maybe you could call it, uh, male erectile tissue." And she was like, "Well ..." She's now fucking with him. She's like, "But what if it's flaccid? What, wouldn't the use of male also be kind of triggering in that sense?"

   4. JRJoe Rogan11:37

      Mm, good point.

   5. PAPeter Attia11:39

      I mean, yeah. I mean, and she basically told him to piss off. And she's-

   6. JRJoe Rogan11:42

      And what did this, this guy was the dean?

   7. PAPeter Attia11:44

      The dean of the medical school.

   8. JRJoe Rogan11:46

      (sighs) And he, uh, I, assume he's a doctor as well?

   9. PAPeter Attia11:49

      He should be. Yeah, yeah. If he's the dean of a medical school, he would be an MD.

   10. JRJoe Rogan11:52

       What in the fuck is wrong with people?

   11. PAPeter Attia11:55

       I don't know.

   12. JRJoe Rogan11:56

       One of my favorite videos is, uh, there's a communist meeting, a meeting of these, uh, student communists and, uh, their, uh-... they're, they're, like, criticizing each other for various things. And one of 'em gets up and tells everybody that, "Please keep the chatter to a minimum and be respectful for people that are easily distracted." And then another one gets up and they, they yell out to stop using gendered language because l- like, he said, "Guys, can you guys please do this?"

   13. PAPeter Attia12:27

       (laughs)

   14. JRJoe Rogan12:27

       And so he gets up and says, "Can you stop using gendered language?" And it's just like, you guys are like LARPers. You know, it's like live action role playing. Like, you're playing like you're in a different dimen-

   15. PAPeter Attia12:37

       (laughs)

   16. JRJoe Rogan12:37

       Wanna hear it? Here, it's-

   17. PAPeter Attia12:38

       All right.

   18. JRJoe Rogan12:38

       It's hilarious. Take-

   19. NANarrator12:39

       And to win socialism. Thank you so much.

   20. PAPeter Attia12:42

       Great. Right. On to-

   21. NANarrator12:43

       Uh, quick point of privilege.

   22. PAPeter Attia12:44

       Um-

   23. NANarrator12:44

       Quick point of personal privilege.

   24. PAPeter Attia12:45

       Yes.

   25. NANarrator12:45

       Um, guys, uh, m- first of all, James Jackson, Sacramento. He/him. I-

   26. JRJoe Rogan12:50

       (laughs)

   27. NANarrator12:50

       ... just wanna say, can we please keep the chatter to a minimum? I'm one of the people who's very, very prone to sensory overload. There's a lot of whispering and chatter going on. It's making it very difficult for me to focus. Please, can we just... I know it's r- we're all fresh and ready to go, but can we please just keep the chatter to a minimum? It's affecting my ability to focus. Thank you.

   28. Thank you, comrade.

   29. PAPeter Attia13:07

       (laughs) Love it.

   30. NANarrator13:07

       Okay. Is there a speaker against named Chapter Pronouns-
4. 14:41 – 19:37

   Hypocrisy and supply chains: social justice via devices made with exploitative labor

   1. JRJoe Rogan14:41

      I don't think they will. I don't think they'll go that far. I mean, they're pretty woke. But they're a li- they seem a little bit more reasonable. The craziest thing is that all of this is coming through devices that are made by slave labor. Like, that's d- at the end of the day, it's so hypocritical that all these people tweeting about social justice and, you know, all the wrongs of the world. You're doing it on a fucking device that's made by child slaves.

   2. PAPeter Attia15:05

      (laughs)

   3. JRJoe Rogan15:07

      Like, sorry. You wanna buy an iPhone? You gotta get something that's essentially made by people that are getting slave wages. They're working 16 hours a day in a building that has nets around it to keep suicide people from jumping off the roof.

   4. PAPeter Attia15:21

      Mm.

   5. JRJoe Rogan15:22

      That's Foxconn. That's where they make 'em.

   6. PAPeter Attia15:24

      Yeah.

   7. JRJoe Rogan15:24

      They don't make 'em here. They're, they're not making 'em in Ohio with, you know, folks that are in a union that get paid, you know, great wages and benefits, and can take care of their families. Uh-uh. No. No, we wanna try to keep the bottom line nice and low.

   8. PAPeter Attia15:37

      Yeah.

   9. JRJoe Rogan15:38

      So, in order for you to tweet about social justice, you have to do it on a device that's made by people that are not much better than slaves.

   10. PAPeter Attia15:45

       Oh.

   11. NANarrator15:46

       (laughs)

   12. JRJoe Rogan15:46

       Not, not much well o- not more well off. They're really not. It's fucked. It's crazy that there's no outrage to that.

   13. PAPeter Attia15:54

       Well, the outrage is silent. That's the problem. I mean, we're all, you know... I, I guess I should be more vocal about it. You should be more vocal about it. Everybody should be more vocal about it, 'cause I... There's no way the majority of people are looking at this and thinking it's reasonable.

   14. JRJoe Rogan16:07

       No, they're not. But th- it's just convenient.

   15. PAPeter Attia16:08

       But we're d- we're not doing enough about it.

   16. JRJoe Rogan16:10

       But we're not doing anything about it.

   17. PAPeter Attia16:11

       Yeah. Th- yeah.

   18. JRJoe Rogan16:11

       Like, what... There's no one, no one has made a push to make a phone in America. Unless there's something I don't know about. Is there a phone made in America? Let's see if there is a phone made in America. I bet there is not one. I'm willing to bet there's not one. And if it is, it's a piece of shit.

   19. PAPeter Attia16:29

       (laughs)

   20. JRJoe Rogan16:29

       I heard Elon's thinking of making a phone. There was a, there's some talk of a Tesla phone. If that happens, he might be, like, the only one. If Tesla does that, they might be the only ones that could sway people from iPhones.

   21. PAPeter Attia16:44

       Yeah. (laughs) I think you're right. Yeah.

   22. JRJoe Rogan16:46

       Right? If anybody can... 'Cause it's hard. Like, Samsung has some amazing phones. Their cameras are incredible, but people look at that green text coming in, they're like, not doing it. You know? But if, like, someone like Elon convinced people to switch over to Signal, which is probably better for everybody anyway, to have some peer-to-peer e- encrypted application. Librem 5 USA. Is this a... This is a, um, this is a Linux phone, isn't it?

   23. PAPeter Attia17:16

       Yes.

   24. JRJoe Rogan17:17

       Made in the USA. E- electronics with a secure supply chain. That's r- what does that mean?

   25. PAPeter Attia17:26

       Mm-hmm.

   26. JRJoe Rogan17:26

       Made with a secure supply chain. What does that mean?

   27. NANarrator17:28

       You want a smartphone built outside China and the walled gardens of Google and Apple, this may be for you, according to The Register.

   28. JRJoe Rogan17:34

       So, it's real?

   29. PAPeter Attia17:35

       Yeah, I just Googled... There's a-

   30. JRJoe Rogan17:37

       32 gigabytes? Get the fuck outta here.
5. 19:37 – 27:21

   Manual transmissions, chip shortages, and enthusiast economics (cars & watches)

   1. NANarrator19:37

      There's a chip shortage too, right?

   2. JRJoe Rogan19:38

      Yeah.

   3. NANarrator19:38

      Whatever that mean. I don't-

   4. JRJoe Rogan19:39

      Yeah.

   5. NANarrator19:40

      ... know exactly what that means, but-

   6. JRJoe Rogan19:40

      It means it's hard-

   7. NANarrator19:41

      ... affects everything.

   8. JRJoe Rogan19:41

      ... to get a car.

   9. NANarrator19:42

      Yeah.

   10. JRJoe Rogan19:42

       Yeah, I had a friend who was trying to buy a Ford Raptor, he couldn't get one. Like-

   11. PAPeter Attia19:46

       Oh, yeah.

   12. JRJoe Rogan19:47

       Yeah.

   13. PAPeter Attia19:47

       It's like ... I, I ordered my pickup truck. I, I wanted to get one in a manual, so I had an old Tacoma, gave it to my brother-in-law.

   14. JRJoe Rogan19:54

       You wanted to get a pickup truck and a manual transmission?

   15. PAPeter Attia19:57

       There's only two that are still made.

   16. JRJoe Rogan19:58

       Who makes it?

   17. PAPeter Attia19:59

       Tacoma makes a limited edition Pro Sport.

   18. JRJoe Rogan20:02

       Really?

   19. PAPeter Attia20:02

       And the Jeep pickup truck comes in a manual.

   20. JRJoe Rogan20:05

       Oh. Well, well the Jeep kind of makes sense. I can't believe Tacoma still does that. That's ... Why do you want a manual pickup truck?

   21. PAPeter Attia20:11

       Um, I want my daughter to be able to drive manual.

   22. JRJoe Rogan20:13

       Oh.

   23. PAPeter Attia20:14

       And, um, I just miss driving manual.

   24. JRJoe Rogan20:16

       Really?

   25. PAPeter Attia20:17

       I, I've al- ... I was ... Grew up driving manual and about, you know, six years ago when all cars went to dual clutch, like when sports cars went to dual clutch, I basically gave it up. So, I still drive manual on the track, but-

   26. JRJoe Rogan20:25

       Mm-hmm.

   27. PAPeter Attia20:26

       ... I kind of miss it on the road. And I, and I just ... I do want my daughter to drive a manual. I, I feel-

   28. JRJoe Rogan20:30

       Just so she can know?

   29. PAPeter Attia20:30

       ... it'll keep her ... Well, also, it'll like ... You'll be texting less and screwing around less. You'll-

   30. JRJoe Rogan20:34

       I hope.
6. 27:21 – 30:07

   What time even is? From pocket watches to atomic clocks and living “off the clock”

   1. JRJoe Rogan27:21

      When was the first pocket watch?

   2. PAPeter Attia27:23

      Hmm, that's a good question. Um-

   3. JRJoe Rogan27:25

      Let's take a guess before we Google it. Jamie, what do you think? First pocket watch.

   4. NANarrator27:29

      With mechanics that worked like that?

   5. JRJoe Rogan27:31

      Yeah, yeah. Wind up. They were all wind-up ones.

   6. NANarrator27:35

      I'm gonna go old, 15... No, let's say before that so, like, 1450-ish.

   7. JRJoe Rogan27:40

      Really?

   8. NANarrator27:41

      They had to use something like that probably for maneuvering the oceans, I'm guessing.

   9. JRJoe Rogan27:45

      But how... What...

   10. NANarrator27:46

       I don't know.

   11. JRJoe Rogan27:47

       How would they even agree to what time it was?

   12. NANarrator27:49

       I don't have any idea. I'm just guessing. (laughs)

   13. JRJoe Rogan27:50

       See, 'cause, like, before they agreed to what time it was, no one had a fucking clue, right? Like, there was a time-

   14. PAPeter Attia27:58

       They're using sundials and things like that.

   15. JRJoe Rogan27:59

       Yeah. There was a time in history where no one agreed what time it was. (laughs)

   16. NANarrator28:03

       Well, like, hell with Big Ben. Like, that's probably the first one with agreement 'cause they're like-

   17. JRJoe Rogan28:07

       That's a good point.

   18. NANarrator28:07

       ... "Okay, that's the fucking time right there."

   19. JRJoe Rogan28:08

       Right, that's a good point. Big Ben. I'm gonna guess Big Ben is from 1800.

   20. NANarrator28:14

       All right, I was not-

   21. PAPeter Attia28:15

       I'm, I'm gonna go a little earlier.

   22. NANarrator28:16

       ... too far off.

   23. JRJoe Rogan28:17

       Really?

   24. NANarrator28:17

       Yeah.

   25. JRJoe Rogan28:18

       Okay, hit me with it.

   26. NANarrator28:18

       1510.

   27. JRJoe Rogan28:19

       1510 is the first watch?

   28. NANarrator28:20

       German watchmaker, Peter Heinlein, Henlein.

   29. JRJoe Rogan28:23

       So he's like, "This is the time."

   30. NANarrator28:25

       By utilizing-
7. 30:07 – 51:46

   Predators, self-defense, and hunting ethics: mountain lions, guns, and real risk

   1. JRJoe Rogan30:07

      Did I tell you about the mountain lion I saw?

   2. PAPeter Attia30:09

      No. (laughs)

   3. JRJoe Rogan30:10

      I didn't tell you. When we were in Utah, I saw a giant mountain lion, fucking giant. Like, as big as me. It was huge.

   4. PAPeter Attia30:18

      What?

   5. JRJoe Rogan30:18

      It was huge.

   6. PAPeter Attia30:19

      How far from you?

   7. JRJoe Rogan30:20

      We, we were in a truck, luckily, and it was about 30 yards away.

   8. PAPeter Attia30:24

      ... my friend, Colton, spotted it. Uh, we were driving and he hits the brakes, he goes, "That fucking mountain lion!" And I'm like, "Where?" And then I see its eyes 'cause it was starting to get dark out, but it was still light and its eyes were glowing. And, uh, I put up the binoculars to take a look at it, like closer through the windshield. And I was like, "Holy fuck!" It was huge. I did not know they got that big.

   9. JRJoe Rogan30:45

      Oh, they get to 200 pounds.

   10. PAPeter Attia30:47

       Oh.

   11. JRJoe Rogan30:47

       (clears throat) The one that I saw previously, I saw one in Santa Barbara and it was probably like 70 pounds, 60 pounds. It was pretty small. And then I saw another one in Colorado, but it was so brief, it was, it was hard to tell and that one seemed the same size. Seemed like a smaller juvenile one. This was not a juvenile. This was a 100% full grown tom with a big old pumpkin head and huge paws and the forearms were wild. Like that was the weirdest thing, like looking at his f- his forearms were as big as my thighs. I was like, "Fuck, look at this fucking thing."

   12. PAPeter Attia31:20

       Elk killer.

   13. JRJoe Rogan31:20

       And it was just looking at us, you know, and it was under a tree. A- and, you know, we, uh, opened up the car door and tried to like get film of it and look at it closer and it took off and it was so big. 'Cause I was thinking like, if I was out there on my own, you know, 'cause people do that all the time, they hunt solo and they don't carry a weapon, you know? Like Colton didn't have a weapon. I only had a bow and arrow. And here's this giant-ass fucking cat. Like, if we zigged when we should have zagged and all of a sudden we're on top of this thing and it decides to pounce on us, fuck.

   14. PAPeter Attia31:57

       (laughs) That better be a good tripan.

   15. JRJoe Rogan31:59

       Yeah. Did you see that video of the guy who shot the, uh, mountain lion in the face?

   16. PAPeter Attia32:03

       No.

   17. JRJoe Rogan32:04

       Jamie.

   18. PAPeter Attia32:05

       (laughs) It's, uh- (laughs)

   19. JRJoe Rogan32:07

       (laughs) He's hunting too and, uh, he's got a Glock out and he's telling this mountain lion, "Hey, back up, back up." And it's not even... It's a smaller one, like a 90-pound one, but he- he's saying to it, "Hey, fuck off, like get outta here." And then it- it makes a move on him and, you know, he drops his phone, you hear crack, crack. You hear m- l- like one shot. One shot. Um, and then you see the thing twitching on the ground and it's got a bullet hole in its face.

   20. PAPeter Attia32:32

       Wow.

   21. JRJoe Rogan32:33

       Yeah. But doesn't have that gun, he's fucked, because occasionally they will jump on people and that's the situation th- this guy was in. Like look at this. Give me some volume. Rewind it and give me the volume 'cause when it's looking at its face.

   22. PAPeter Attia32:48

       G- g- g- g- g- get back.

   23. JRJoe Rogan32:49

       Look at that.

   24. PAPeter Attia32:50

       G- get back. You get back. You get back.

   25. JRJoe Rogan32:59

       Look at that fucking thing.

   26. PAPeter Attia33:01

       Back. Ah, ah, ah. No. No. (gunshot) Motherfucker.

   27. NANarrator33:11

       (sighs) I just had to shoot this mountain lion. It fucking pounced at me and I popped it in the fucking face. (sighs) Holy shit.

   28. JRJoe Rogan33:21

       Holy shit.

   29. PAPeter Attia33:22

       Wow.

   30. JRJoe Rogan33:23

       That is wild, right?
8. 51:46 – 58:02

   Archery tech rabbit hole: rangefinders, arrow arc, and compound bow history

   1. JRJoe Rogan51:46

      Um, you have the best backyard range I've ever seen ever.

   2. PAPeter Attia51:50

      Dude, it just got better, too.

   3. JRJoe Rogan51:51

      How did it get better?

   4. PAPeter Attia51:52

      Um, I just bought more.

   5. JRJoe Rogan51:54

      Peter has this range in his backyard 'cause Peter's an archery nut like me, and he has... He basically has, like, a professional archery range in your backyard. It's like you have hundreds of yards to shoot.

   6. PAPeter Attia52:05

      Well, we just bought the lot next to us.

   7. JRJoe Rogan52:06

      (laughs)

   8. PAPeter Attia52:06

      So now it's like we could literally set up a tack.

   9. JRJoe Rogan52:10

      Oh, wow.

   10. PAPeter Attia52:11

       Yeah.

   11. JRJoe Rogan52:11

       That's cool.

   12. PAPeter Attia52:12

       And, and so what I've done now is I got now elk in the woods. That's what makes it better, so. So now when I was preparing for the elk hunt this year, I was doing... Most of my shooting was in between trees.

   13. JRJoe Rogan52:22

       Oh.

   14. PAPeter Attia52:22

       So I'm trying to, trying to make s- build my confidence at... If you wanna shoot something 50 yards away, but you got two trees like this and a branch going like this-

   15. JRJoe Rogan52:30

       Right.

   16. PAPeter Attia52:31

       ... now you gotta... You have to judge, like, "Well, can I make that shot because of the arc of the arrow?"

   17. JRJoe Rogan52:36

       Do you have a FullDraw 4?

   18. PAPeter Attia52:38

       I do.

   19. JRJoe Rogan52:39

       You do?

   20. PAPeter Attia52:39

       Yeah.

   21. JRJoe Rogan52:39

       Those are the shit.

   22. PAPeter Attia52:40

       Yeah.

   23. JRJoe Rogan52:40

       Leupold has... For people that don't know what we're talking about, Leupold has a rangefinder that you put in the weight of your arrow, the weight of the bow, the length of your-

   24. PAPeter Attia52:50

       Your draw length and everything, yeah.

   25. JRJoe Rogan52:51

       ... peep sight. Everything. You have to put in everything. Is there a peep sight? Is that calculated in?

   26. PAPeter Attia52:55

       I think it's peak height elevation, yep.

   27. JRJoe Rogan52:57

       Yeah?

   28. PAPeter Attia52:57

       Yep.

   29. JRJoe Rogan52:57

       Okay. So you calculate all those things, and it will literally show you how high your arrow will be at the peak. So if you range something, is which is what you do, and you dial it in on your site, it'll show you if you're gonna hit a branch or not.

   30. PAPeter Attia53:12

       Yeah, it's-
9. 58:02 – 1:01:24

   Attia’s pivot to longevity medicine: why he left surgery and what brought him back

   1. JRJoe Rogan58:02

      We can talk about anything. I don't give a fuck. It doesn't, doesn't bother me. Um, is there any, uh, new information in the world of longevity and the world of health or anything that you know of that is exciting?

   2. PAPeter Attia58:20

      I mean, there're two extremes, right? I think on the one end-

   3. JRJoe Rogan58:23

      Tell everybody what kind of medicine you practice, just so they know.

   4. PAPeter Attia58:26

      Oh, so I, I mean, my practice is basically trying to figure out how to help people live, um, with a greater lifespan. So how do you add 10, 15 years to how long a person's gonna live, and then how do you improve health span? So how do you improve especially-

   5. JRJoe Rogan58:40

      And your degree is in what kind of medicine?

   6. PAPeter Attia58:43

      Um, so I did surgical oncology. I did general surgery and oncology. Um, but I left medicine in 2006 and went, you know, did finance and other stuff and completely went away from it until I kind of came back to it about 10 years ago.

   7. JRJoe Rogan58:58

      Why did you leave it?

   8. PAPeter Attia59:01

      Um, I mean, truthfully, I was super frustrated. Um, in, in cancer surgery you're doing kind of like very, like, heroic operations. I mean, the most technically challenging types of operations. But, you know, half the people still die, right?

   9. JRJoe Rogan59:17

      Hmm.

   10. PAPeter Attia59:18

       So 50% of people who are going to have surgery, and in some cases more. If you're talking about pancreatic cancer, 80% of the people whose pancreas gets removed for cancer are gonna be dead in five years.

   11. JRJoe Rogan59:30

       Wow.

   12. PAPeter Attia59:30

       So, um, y- you know, I just, I just felt like in all, in all regards, I just felt like there wasn't enough in the way of prevention. Um, and in some ways that is necessary. I mean, we, because I trained at Hopkins, which is in the inner city, it's a lot of trauma surgery. So every third night for five years, you're taking care of gunshot wounds. And-

   13. JRJoe Rogan59:49

       Ugh.

   14. PAPeter Attia59:49

       We had so many, I mean, Baltimore averaged, at, at Hopkins we averaged, at the time, I don't know what it's like today. At the time, it was 16 penetrating traumas a day. So 16 gunshot wounds or stab wounds a day. So as a, as a trainee, that's amazing, right? Like that's, that's what you're there for. That's why I went specifically to that program, was to be able to learn to operate on people who are shot or stabbed. Um, but, you know, it, it does take its toll on you, right? You just feel like there's no end to this. Like, um-

   15. JRJoe Rogan1:00:16

       Right.

   16. PAPeter Attia1:00:17

       I mean, it's a war zone out there and y- y- yeah. I mean, there were... I remember there were times when, you know, you'd, you'd be a part of, like, a heroic rescue of somebody and they go out the door and they come back a week later with a gunshot wound to the head and they're dead.

   17. JRJoe Rogan1:00:32

       Wow. God.

   18. PAPeter Attia1:00:32

       And you're like, "Ugh." I mean, come on. Um, so yeah, I was, I was just frustrated by, with everything in medicine when I left. I was super pissed. My wife was like, "You know, you bitch and moan about this so much. I think you have two choices. You should either fix it or leave." And I was like, "Well, I can't fix it, so I'm leaving." Um, so I left and joined a company called McKinsey and was recruited there to do healthcare, but ended up, because my background's in math, doing credit risk. And this was right as, this was like the two years building up to the mortgage meltdown.So that became my day job and my night job. I mean, that was all-consuming for two years. Um-

   19. JRJoe Rogan1:01:08

       What was your night job?

   20. PAPeter Attia1:01:09

       No. Meaning like we worked 24/7.

   21. JRJoe Rogan1:01:10

       Oh. Oh.

   22. PAPeter Attia1:01:11

       Like I, we, I would run a team of analysts in India during the night and then a team in San Francisco during the day. And all day, all night, we were kind of trying to basically figure out how bad this thing was going to be.

10. 1:01:24 – 1:23:01

    Inside the 2008 crisis: mortgage ‘vintage curves,’ mispricing risk, and TARP debates

    1. JRJoe Rogan1:01:24

       So you saw it coming?

    2. PAPeter Attia1:01:25

       Oh. Yeah.

    3. JRJoe Rogan1:01:25

       How far out?

    4. PAPeter Attia1:01:26

       Um, so by August of 2007, it was clear that the prime market was going to implode. Uh, and I still remember the day, Thursday, November 15th, uh, 2007 is when I had a sense of what the magnitude was going to be. The thing I didn't know was when. I couldn't... I knew it was gonna be the next 18 months, but I... It wasn't like I could say in September, which is when it ended up happening, right? It was 10 months later. I couldn't say in September the bottom's gonna fall out.

    5. JRJoe Rogan1:02:00

       Was there anything that could have been done that would have mitigated the impact on the economy and society and, you know, repossessions, and-

    6. PAPeter Attia1:02:12

       Yeah. I mean, that's, that's a really good question because at the time, in November of '07, we... And, and I want to also be clear, the reason we knew with such clarity how bad this was is we were work... We had a client, our client was the largest u.... I guess I could s... Probably the largest US home lender in prime real estate and we had all the data. So we're able to see stuff that's not publicly available, but they didn't see it. But when we went back and looked at the analysis, we were... We figured out that every... That starting in 2004, starting in the second quarter of 2004, every loan that was being originated was behaving differently than in the entire history of mortgages. So this is a, a really interesting analysis. It's called the vintage analysis. Um, if you bundle mortgages together and look at how they behave, for all of time, they behave in a certain way. For about the first 18 months, none of them default. So 18 months after a person buys a house, historically, there's no chance of default. Then defaults start to rise, and they rise for about the next two to three years, and then they never default again. So the vintage curve looks like this. This is cumulative loss rate.

    7. JRJoe Rogan1:03:28

       Mm-hmm.

    8. PAPeter Attia1:03:29

       So what's the reason for that? So the reason nobody defaults in the first 18 months is because historically, you really make sure that the person who you're selling a house to or giving a loan to can afford it. You do a really extensive background check on them. And if something's gonna go wrong, it's unlikely to go wrong in that first 18 months because of how much you've documented their income and employment and stuff like that. Then you get into an area where some people are gonna default. And then the reason three, four years out, there's no more defaulting is because by that point, people have enough equity in their home that if they run into trouble, they can always sell the home and the bank gets their money back. So again, you go back in time, every vintage curve for every single mortgage looked like this. Really boring. We went back and plotted all the vintage curves going back to the year 2000, and they all looked... And then in Q2 2004, so you plot these in three-month vintages, they started doing this.

    9. JRJoe Rogan1:04:27

       Explain to people that are just listening.

    10. PAPeter Attia1:04:29

        Uh, meaning they started to... Instead of going up and then flat again, they just kept going up and up and up and up and up, but they actually did it at an exponential rate. So they didn't just go up straight, they would go up exponentially.

    11. JRJoe Rogan1:04:41

        Mm-hmm.

    12. PAPeter Attia1:04:41

        In other words, there was no end in sight to the explosion of losses. So the losses started happening immediately and they never slowed down. They accelerated with time. So this is looking at a chain reaction. And this was one of five models that we built to try to understand what was going on. And they all pointed in the same direction, which was catastrophic outcomes basically for loans that became originated after 2004. So by the time we're in 2007, when we show all this data to them, obviously they didn't believe it, right? They said... Well, 'cause the punchline was horrible. The punchline was, "You're gonna lose more in the next 18 months than you've made in the last 10 years." And that was like, you know, they were like, "That's not possible." Um, and the, the rea- I had to be the one to tell the, the, the head of the bank, right? Because... And even though I was only like... There's a hierarchy at McKinsey, there's like senior partners, junior partners, and I was just like a lowly manager who ran the analysts. And the senior partner would normally be the one to present such an outrageous finding to the board of a bank. But he was like, "You should present this." And I said, "Why?" And he goes, "Well, you, you understand the technical details of the model better. And also you used to be a cancer surgeon, so you're used to giving bad news."

    13. JRJoe Rogan1:06:02

        (laughs)

    14. PAPeter Attia1:06:03

        "I think this is not gonna go very well. So-"

    15. JRJoe Rogan1:06:06

        Oh my God.

    16. PAPeter Attia1:06:07

        "... you, you do this." And it did not go well. It was not well received. Um, in re- they could have done something. Yes, they absolutely could have done something. It wouldn't have stopped all the damage, but it would've minimized the damage, because remember, there was still another 10 months of horrible loans being originated, horrible loans being securitized. Um, and they were mispriced. I mean, ultimately that's the problem with this, is it was just a mispricing game. They didn't know how to price the risk of the loans they were making.

    17. JRJoe Rogan1:06:38

        And how many people were predicting this the way you were?

    18. PAPeter Attia1:06:42

        Well, look, a lot of people way smarter than me were predicting it. Remember, I was an idiot. All I knew was how bad this was. I had no clue how one could make money off this 'cause I wasn't thinking about it through that lens.

    19. JRJoe Rogan1:06:53

        Oh, I see.

    20. PAPeter Attia1:06:54

        Remember-

    21. JRJoe Rogan1:06:54

        But some folks were. There was-

    22. PAPeter Attia1:06:55

        Yeah. If you saw The Big Short. Did you ever see that movie?

    23. JRJoe Rogan1:06:57

        No, I did not.

    24. PAPeter Attia1:06:58

        Oh. So, um, I think it's called The Big Short, right? It was, uh... Is that it, Jamie? Yeah. Great movie 'cause it was actually very accurate.

    25. JRJoe Rogan1:07:05

        Who's in that movie?

    26. PAPeter Attia1:07:07

        Um...

    27. NANarrator1:07:08

        Christian Bale plays the guy, the main...

    28. PAPeter Attia1:07:11

        That's right.

    29. JRJoe Rogan1:07:11

        Mm.

    30. NANarrator1:07:11

        ... kind of found the stuff, um-

Episode duration: 3:21:48