Joe Rogan Experience #1777 - Andrew Dessler

Narrator 0:00 (drumming) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.

0:04 The Joe Rogan Experience.

Joe Rogan 0:06 Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night. All day. (instrumental music plays) Alright, we're up. Well, thank you very much for being here, Andrew. I appreciate it. Uh, why don't you tell everybody, if you would, uh, what you do and what your credentials are.

Andrew Dessler 0:20 So, I'm a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University. I'm the director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies. Uh, I've been studying climate and the atmosphere for about 30 years.

Joe Rogan 0:33 Okay. And, uh, I, I ... Thank you for being here. And I brought you on here to counter this book. Uh, Steve Koonin, who was my last guest, and, uh, I'm trying to do this and, and balance things out. He has a very different take on what the science says about climate change than you do. So, let's, uh ... I guess we should start ... I know you've read the book. What do you think about his book?

Andrew Dessler 1:01 Yeah. Well, let me start with a little context.

Joe Rogan 1:03 Okay.

Andrew Dessler 1:03 Like some historical context. So, um, for decades on a number of problems, there have been scientists who show up and say, "The consensus is all wrong." So, it started in the '60s with tobacco. So, you know, the, the evidence was very clear that smoking is bad for you, and then these scientists started showing up and saying, "No, you know, we don't really understand. Uh, there's, there's all these problems with the science." And what the tobacco companies figured out very early is that having a scientist advance that message was much better than having a PR person.

Joe Rogan 1:31 Mm.

Andrew Dessler 1:32 So, they would go out and hire scientists to say, "Hey, we need you to push this message." And they went out, and it was very effective. They delayed the recognition that smoking is bad for you for decades.

Joe Rogan 1:43 Have you seen the documentary, uh, Ministers of Doubt-

Andrew Dessler 1:46 Merchants of Doubt.

Joe Rogan 1:46 Oh, I'm sorry. Merchants of Doubt.

Andrew Dessler 1:46 Yeah. In fact, I was gonna say-

Joe Rogan 1:48 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 1:48 ... you know, that's the fanta- a fantastic book, uh, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway that really goes over this, all the way into climate change, about how science is used to try to undermine policy action. Um, so then, you know, fast-forward to the '80s and you have fluorocarbons and ozone depletion. And in fact, uh, the exact same thing happens. The, the science was really well-established, but these scientists started showing up and saying, "The scientists have it all wrong." And in fact, the arguments they're advancing are almost exactly the same as the arguments that Dr. Koonin is advancing. If you take a Word document and you just do a global word replace, ozone depletion for climate change, you have exactly the same argument. In fact, I have a slide with a quote that ... I normally don't (laughs) make people read a paragraph, but I think this is actually really useful. If you go to slide 52, this is from 1989, and I think ... Is it gonna show up there?

Joe Rogan 2:36 Yes.

Andrew Dessler 2:37 Um, it's worth ... So, this is a quote from, um, uh, something that was said about, about fluorocarbons, and it just says, "The current situation can be fairly summarized as following. The CFC ozone theory is quite incomplete and cannot yet be relied on to make predictions. The natural sources of stratospheric ozone layer have not yet been d- delineated, theoretically or experimentally. The Antarctic ozone hole is ephemeral. It comes and goes. It seems to be controlled by climatic factors outside human r- control, rather than CFCs." That's exactly the same argument. You know, "We don't understand it. It's natural variability." It's, it's, it's identical argument. And, uh, can you put it back up? Uh, in the next paragraph, "New York Times reports talks about the disadvantages of CFC substitutes. They may be toxic, flammable, corrosive. They certainly won't work as well. They'll reduce the energy efficiency of appliances. They'll deteriorate. Uh, 135 billion dollars of equipment use CFCs in the United States alone, and much of this equipment will have to be replaced or modified to work well. Eventually, that will involve 100 million home refrigerators, air conditioners in 90 million cars, central air conditioning plants in 100,000 large buildings. Good luck. The total costs haven't even been added up yet." And again, you know, windmills don't work. Uh, you know, the costs are gonna be extraordinary. And, and, you know, you were around in the '90s. Do you remember the economic apocalypse that happened when we replaced CFCs?

Joe Rogan 3:49 It didn't happen.

Andrew Dessler 3:50 The economic apocalypse didn't happen. We replaced them-

Joe Rogan 3:52 Right.

Andrew Dessler 3:52 ... and none of that happened.

Joe Rogan 3:54 Yes. What did they replace them with?

Andrew Dessler 3:55 With other CFCs. There's, so the-

Joe Rogan 3:58 And then-

Andrew Dessler 3:58 ... the original F11, F12 got replaced with these things we call HCFCs that are less damaging to the ozone layer, and none of that happened. And that, that ... Those people are the true alarmists in the debate, the people that say we can't do it, because we can do it. And all th- And they're just trying to scare people into not taking action. So ... Uh, you have a question?

Joe Rogan 4:18 No, I was gonna say, I think Koonin's take on replacing things is essentially that there's so many people in third-world countries, in impoverished areas, that rely on fossil fuels, and that eliminating fossil fuels will be devastating to those environments because these people are gonna lose out on massive amounts of income and economically, it's going to affect them in a disastrous way. That's his take, right?

Andrew Dessler 4:46 Uh, y- I mean, I'm n- I, I don't wanna put words in his mouth. Certainly, he argues that it's difficult to transition. I think he said at one point during his interview with you that fossil fuels are the cheapest energy source, which is not true. In fact, um, let me ... I have a slide on that. Um, if we go to slide 33, um, this actually shows the ... Now, so your viewers may not know this. Uh, and in fact, a few years ago, uh, fossil fuels were the cheapest energy source, but the prices are plummeting. So, this is a plot from Lazard, what they call the levelized cost of energy, and you can see the le- on the left side, it's the price in 2009. And you can see the top dot is solar, and it was extremely expensive in 2009. And then, as you go down, 2019, wind and solar are now the cheapest energy sources. Gas is close, but, but wind and solar are, they are the cheap energy sources now.

Joe Rogan 5:41 Is it possible to replace all of the fossil fuel energy that we get with solar?

Andrew Dessler 5:47 Oh, wow. That's a great question. And, um, uh, I guess we'll just sort of let the conversation flow as it winds.

Joe Rogan 5:52 Sure.

Andrew Dessler 5:53 So, yeah. So, let's talk about what it takes to, to re- what would, what would a grid that's carbon-free look like?Okay. So, everybody who's capable of tying their shoelaces knows that wind and solar are intermittent. So solar doesn't produce energy at night, wind doesn't produce energy when the sun's not blowing. So everybody knows that. Okay? Every-

Joe Rogan 6:14 When the wind's not blowing.

Andrew Dessler 6:15 When the wind's not blowing, yes.

Joe Rogan 6:17 Yeah, yeah.

Andrew Dessler 6:17 Everybody knows that. So, if you wanna pro- uh, create a, a reliable, carbon-free grid, you have a grid that's about, on average, produces 75% of its power from wind and solar, and then the other 25% is what we call dispatchable firm power. So, it could be nuclear, could be geothermal, could be hydro. It's a power source you can turn on and off to balance the variability of wind and solar. So, when, when the wind stops blowing, you turn up your dispatchable, uh, uh, and when the wind's- when you're getting lots of wind and solar, you turn it off and you let wind and solar run.

Joe Rogan 6:51 Um, I, I was under the impression that wind was not very effective, that these windmills don't produce that much power.

Andrew Dessler 6:59 I mean, some- in some days in Texas, it's half our power.

Joe Rogan 7:02 Half of our power comes from wind?

Andrew Dessler 7:03 Yeah. Yeah, if it's a- if it's a windy day-

Joe Rogan 7:04 Really?

Andrew Dessler 7:05 ... we get an enormous amount of power. Yeah, Texas has an enormous amount of power-

Joe Rogan 7:08 So-

Andrew Dessler 7:08 ... that we get from wind on windy days. Some days, you don't get a lot of power, but you do.

Joe Rogan 7:11 That's incredible.

Andrew Dessler 7:12 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 7:12 I did not know it was half of our power.

Andrew Dessler 7:14 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 7:14 So conceivably, with solar and with wind, we could power the entire state.

Andrew Dessler 7:20 And with- you need some dispatchable power.

Joe Rogan 7:22 Right.

Andrew Dessler 7:22 You need- you need some nuclear, you need some geothermal, you need some high- you need something that you can balance the, the renewable energy with.

Joe Rogan 7:30 But much less than we're currently using.

Andrew Dessler 7:32 That's right. And so, so you might say, you might ask, reasonably, you know, "Why use wind and solar at all? Why don't you just build 100% nuclear?" And that would work, and I would actually support that. But that's much more expensive. The- uh, wind and solar are very cheap at this point. And in fact, the marginal cost of wind and solar energy is zero. They produce energy, an extra joule of energy, w- at no cost, 'cause they don't have any fuel.

Joe Rogan 7:54 Right.

Andrew Dessler 7:54 So, if you wanna pay the least amount for energy, what you wanna do is you wanna have a grid that's mainly wind and solar, but then you have to have this firm power, the- uh, that makes up for it when the power- when wind and solar don't produce. 'Cause the- 'cause there are gonna be times when they don't produce. You- we know- we know that's gonna happen.

Joe Rogan 8:12 So, wind and solar, uh, also rely on- there's- there has to be some sort of battery that collects the energy, correctly?

Andrew Dessler 8:20 No, no. So, so that's a different-

Joe Rogan 8:22 Solar doesn't, right?

Andrew Dessler 8:23 No, they really don't.

Joe Rogan 8:24 No?

Andrew Dessler 8:24 So that- that's part of why you need to have dispatchable energy. You don't really need energy storage on a grid. Now, there are some benefits to energy storage, especially storage that lasts a few hours, uh, because, uh, you can collect, uh, energy at noon when solar's producing lots and shift it into the evening. So you can shift the energy a few hours. So you might wanna use batteries for that. But you don't really need long-term storage to run the grid. You just need some sort of dispatchable power to balance the renewable.

Joe Rogan 8:52 So is- uh, when you have batteries that are attached to solar systems, is that just for individual use, like for off-the-grid homes and things of that like?

Andrew Dessler 9:01 No, no. It'd be industrial-scale batteries. And again, the idea would be to shift power from when you're getting the most solar, uh, which is noon, to when the demand is the highest, which is a few hours later.

Joe Rogan 9:11 Right, but what I'm saying is for individual homes, most of them have battery backup systems. They have systems that store the solar, correct? Like I used to have a system like that.

Andrew Dessler 9:20 Yeah, uh, you know, I don't- I actually don't know the statistics. I think most people that have solar panels on their houses don't have batteries. I think some people do, but most don't have solar.

Joe Rogan 9:28 So, they connect to the grid as well.

Andrew Dessler 9:30 Yeah, so they're using-

Joe Rogan 9:31 But if the grid goes down, that means their solar power is down as well. Right?

Andrew Dessler 9:35 That's right. So for most people who have solar panels on their house, uh, they actually have an interlock system that when the grid goes down, their solar panels shut off. And the reason to do that is for safety of the power line workers. Uh, they don't want- if the power line workers think there's no power on the grid, they don't want, uh, these solar panels feeding power in. They walk up and they get shocked. So th- so the solar panels actually are designed to shut off when the power goes out. Now you can- you can put a battery on your house. You can have it disconnect from the grid and you can basically make your house a little island.

Joe Rogan 10:05 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 10:05 Um, but most people don't do that.

Joe Rogan 10:07 Um, if they do do that, is- is it really possible to power your entire home through solar that way?

Andrew Dessler 10:14 Y- you know, you can- y- it's- that's a question of how much you wanna invest. If you- uh, you certainly could do that. I think if you have big enough batteries, you could- you could do that. But, um, the grid is a good, reliable backup most of the time. And so I think that's what most people rely on. They just hook up to the grid and, uh, you know, when the- when they're not- when they're not generating enough power, they're just pulling energy off the grid, and when they're generating excess power, they're pushing it onto the grid.

Joe Rogan 10:38 Right. But I think, uh, one of the things that people like about the idea of solar power is that you're off the grid, is that you don't have to rely on anything. Like if the big freeze happens again and everything-

Andrew Dessler 10:48 Right.

Joe Rogan 10:48 ... shuts off, you'll have a refrigerator. You'll have heat.

Andrew Dessler 10:51 Right, right. Oh, yeah. No, I think that's- that's right, and I would love to have a house like that. Um, but y- most people don't have houses that can disconnect from the grid.

Joe Rogan 11:00 So most of the people that do have solar power, they have solar power and they're attached to the grid, so solar is just a way of saving money and saving energy costs and saving your energy consumption.

Andrew Dessler 11:10 Yeah, that's right. So it's a way to pay less money, um, for your power because you're not buying money off the grid.

Joe Rogan 11:17 And with wind, they rely- they have these massive wind farms, right? Where they have these giant propellers in the air and those gene-

Andrew Dessler 11:24 That's right.

Joe Rogan 11:25 How much does w- energy does one of those things generate?

Andrew Dessler 11:28 So, uh, order of magnitude, something like, uh, 10 megawatts is sort of a general number for it. So- and to give you an idea, um, a megawatt is sort of a diesel locomotive.

Joe Rogan 11:38 Mm.

Andrew Dessler 11:39 So kind of 10 diesel locomotives. A big- a big coal-fired power plant is order a gigawatt, a billion watts. So you can think of 100 windmills as about equal to a, a nuclear power plant. But again-

Joe Rogan 11:51 Really?

Andrew Dessler 11:51 Yeah, but-

Joe Rogan 11:52 It's that strong?

Andrew Dessler 11:53 Well, I mean, if we're talking order of magnitude. You know, maybe it's 200.

Joe Rogan 11:56 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 11:56 Yeah, but these big windmills- these windmills are enormous. Have you ever seen one?

Joe Rogan 11:59 Yeah, I have.

Andrew Dessler 12:00 I mean-

Joe Rogan 12:00 They're- they're pretty crazy.

Andrew Dessler 12:01 They're- they're enormous. I mean, they're- uh, you- you can't- and if you haven't seen one, you just can't imagine how big they are.

Joe Rogan 12:06 Yeah, we saw one. We were, uh, taking a drive through the middle of Texas the other day and we saw one, and it was so close to the highway and it was facing the highway. And I had this irrational fear that the windmill was gonna break off and go rolling down the road and crush us.

Andrew Dessler 12:21 Yeah, uh, obviously didn't happen.

Joe Rogan 12:22 Uh, I know that doesn't make any sense.

Andrew Dessler 12:23 (laughs)

Joe Rogan 12:23 But that's how big it is.

Andrew Dessler 12:24 Yeah, no, they're, they're, they're enormous. And, but the, I think the important point here is wind and nuclear are not exactly, uh, substitutable powers. Again, they, they play different roles in the grid. Um, and, and this leads ... You, you mentioned the Texas freeze. Let's talk about the Texas freeze because I think that was really a great example of how the grid is supposed to operate and why it didn't operate. And, and so, uh, you know, Texas, we have a lot of wind and solar. We also have a lot of natural gas. So in Texas, natural gas is the power source that backs up the renewables. When the renewables are not producing, natural gas is supposed to step in and back it up. I mean, that's the way our grid actually works. We, we, we run as much wind and solar as we can, and anything else is made up with natural gas. There's a little coal, little nuclear. Um, and so during the Texas freeze, uh, the renewables went down. The, they were not producing very much power. And again, this, people play this up like this is a problem with renewables. This is not a problem with renewables. We know renewables stop producing some of the time. And when that happens, you rely on your firm, dispatchable power to make it up. And that was the failure. The gas system did not back up the renewables.

Joe Rogan 13:35 And why was that?

Andrew Dessler 13:36 Oh, that's a really excellent question. So it didn't back up because, um, uh, the gas supply essentially was choked off. So in, uh, especially in West Texas, a lot of the gas that comes out of the ga- ground has a lot of condensates in it, things that condense and freeze.

Joe Rogan 13:51 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 13:51 So heavier hydrocarbons, um, water, and at the very cold temperatures, uh, the s- it actually froze the wells so the gas couldn't get out. It plugged the wells up. And then what happened is ... So, so you get this reduction in natural gas flow, and so then the power started to go down. And this was very sudden. This was in the middle of the night on February 15th, 2021. Um, the power started to go down. And then what happened was, a lot of the natural gas infrastructure is powered by electricity. They have these compressors. They have valves. And once the electricity started to go down, all of the rest of the natural gas infrastructure started to fail. And so you lost even more natural gas. So it was really this, this, this cascading problem with the natural gas system, or the dispatchable power. And, you know, that event cost about $200 billion, uh, between, uh, how much we had to pay for gas plus all the damage, all the pipes that froze and, and burst. I mean, it was an enormously expensive event, one of the most expensive events Texas has ever experienced. For that $200 billion (laughs) , which is all going to repair pipes, it's going to these really rich natural gas guys, we could essentially build enough nuclear power to replace most of our gas power if we had just done that. But instead, we're spending all that money, uh, you know, rep- rep- repairing houses that were destroyed because the natural gas system failed. I mean, it's, it's crazy to me that we still rely on these systems that, that, you know, we can talk about fossil fuels, but you know, fossil fuels have many huge disadvantages, not just climate change, but many others. And, and you know, we could fix this if we wanted to, but we're not, and we're just sitting here paying money year after year for these failures of fossil fuel systems.

Joe Rogan 15:34 Now, people have a fear of nuclear power based on Chernobyl and Three Mile Island and Fukushima and the like. What, what is the current technology? Like when, when you're looking at nuclear technology in 2022, how much safer is it? How much more effective and efficient is it? And like, what's the best example of a, a new, modern nuclear power plant?

Andrew Dessler 15:56 Yeah, so let me just say right off the top, uh, I, I'm not an expert on, on the details of nuclear power. Certainly, people are worried about nuclear power, meltdowns, et cetera. The way I look at it is you're, you have to trade off costs and benefits, and you look at climate change. You lo- ... I mean, we can go over the litany of terrible things about fossil fuels, and I'd be happy to do that, and if you look at all of those and you say nuclear u- is ... Uh, uh, my view is I'm willing to take some risk with nuclear power to avoid all of these other really terrible impacts. Now, I do know that there's a lot of work being done on new technologies for nuclear, these small nu- modular reactors, things that hold the promise of better nuclear power. Um, and maybe those will come out. But even with kind of existing technology, from what I understand, I'm willing to take the risk.

Joe Rogan 16:43 My understanding of technology, uh, the nuclear technology rather, is that in 2022, there's many more fail-safe measures than were when they designed, like say, the Fukushima system, for instance.

Andrew Dessler 16:55 Yeah, I mean, every time you have a disaster, people go into it and they say, "What went wrong?" And then (laughs) you learn lessons and you incorporate those into the new plants. I mean, you do that with plane design.

Joe Rogan 17:03 Right.

Andrew Dessler 17:03 You do that with any kind of big industrial thing. So there's no question in my mind that that's right, that they're safer today than they were in the past. And, and you know, uh, uh, but, but let me say, while I support nuclear, and if, if Republicans came out and said, "We will solve climate change by building nuclear," I'd be 100% gung ho. Uh, you know, by no means am I one of these nuclear bros that you might see on Twitter who, you know, "Fusion's 10 years away," and, uh, you know, I would also take geothermal.

Joe Rogan 17:31 What are the, what are the nuclear bros saying?

Andrew Dessler 17:33 Oh, you know, there are, there are people on Twitter who will say, you know, "We're, fusion's right around the corner." And, you know, they-

Joe Rogan 17:38 They're n- ... You call them nuclear bros?

Andrew Dessler 17:39 Yeah. (laughs)

Joe Rogan 17:39 Why do you call them nuclear bros?

Andrew Dessler 17:40 They're usually sort of aggressive, youngish men. They probably watch this show. They're probably-

Joe Rogan 17:45 (laughs)

Andrew Dessler 17:45 ... steaming angry right now and are, are on Twi- uh, they're actually on Twitter right now searching for me to-

Joe Rogan 17:50 So there's like nuclear fans? Is that what you're saying?

Andrew Dessler 17:53 Oh, yeah.

Joe Rogan 17:53 Oh, okay.

Andrew Dessler 17:53 Oh, yeah. You should ... Here's a test. Go on your Twitter feed and say something like, "I hate nuclear."

Joe Rogan 17:57 (laughs)

Andrew Dessler 17:57 Just say that and tweet it out and see what the reaction is. Um ...

Joe Rogan 18:01 I don't read Twitter.

Andrew Dessler 18:02 All right, well.

Joe Rogan 18:02 Fortunately.

Andrew Dessler 18:03 Yeah, okay.

Joe Rogan 18:04 But, uh, I just post and ghost.

Andrew Dessler 18:05 All right.

Joe Rogan 18:05 I get out of there.

Andrew Dessler 18:06 Yeah, that's, tha- that's a good way to do it.

Joe Rogan 18:08 But when you're, when you're saying l- like nuclear bros, and so is your impression that these are real people that are just enthusiastic about nuclear power, or are these trolls, or are these people that work for some sort of a lobby and they're enthusiastic about getting nuclear pushed forward because they're a, a part of the industry?

Andrew Dessler 18:29 Uh, you know, I think they're honestly enthusiastic about nuclear power, and-

Joe Rogan 18:33 But they're young guys who are bros.

Andrew Dessler 18:35 Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Joe Rogan 18:35 That seems odd to me.

Andrew Dessler 18:37 You know, this is my, this is my experience on Twitter, so you know.

Joe Rogan 18:40 Oh, okay.

Andrew Dessler 18:40 Your mileage may vary.

Joe Rogan 18:41 They might be fucking with you. They might have found you-

Andrew Dessler 18:43 Uh, yeah.

Joe Rogan 18:43 ... to be a little sensitive. Do you know that they do that?

Andrew Dessler 18:46 Th- You know, that's-

Joe Rogan 18:46 They find a little soft spot, they start poking.

Andrew Dessler 18:48 Th- That is true but, you know, I ... Like you, I don't respond on Twitter a lot.

Joe Rogan 18:52 Good.

Andrew Dessler 18:52 I view it as kind of a push medium.

Joe Rogan 18:53 Good for you. Um, so there's nuclear people that are maybe a little overly enthusiastic about nuclear.

Andrew Dessler 19:00 Yes, yes.

Joe Rogan 19:00 Okay.

Andrew Dessler 19:00 That's a good way to put it.

Joe Rogan 19:01 And when you looked at Steve Koonin's assertions about the impact of, uh, fossil fuels on the environment and carbon in the ... in, in the environment and what about human use, uh, i- r- is responsible for that. Like, he put a bunch of percentages, like how much of it is agriculture, how much of it is transportation. Do you, uh, eh, dispute his positions on those that w- th- the amount that humans, like, with fossil fuels in particular, have an impact on the Earth is smaller or at least less significant than, uh, a lot of the alarmists would say?

Andrew Dessler 19:43 No, I think the numbers he gave are pretty accurate. And let me just sort of preface this by saying I think that the facts that Steve Koonin gives are largely accurate. Um, I could dispute one or two, but the things he says are right. But you have to understand that he's really acting like a, a, a defense attorney for carbon dioxide, and a defense attorney, that ... d- they don't lie. They get disbarred if they go in front of a court and lie. But what they do is they give you this carefully curated picture of reality. Just like, you know, you sit down with a defense attorney and he explains why his, why his, um, uh, client is innocent, you're gonna walk away thinking, you know, that, that person is getting railroaded.

Joe Rogan 20:19 Right.

Andrew Dessler 20:19 Of course he didn't do it, because you're not hearing the whole thing. And, and so, and so it's not that what he said was wrong. In fact, many times, he said, "No one's ever been able to prove anything I say is wrong. I have footnotes for everything." And that's, that's correct. It's what he's not saying. It's the, it's, it's the, the where he emphasizes his uncertainty and lack of certainty, that's really what's misleading, I think, in the argument. So-

Joe Rogan 20:41 Can you give me an example of that?

Andrew Dessler 20:42 Oh, sure. So he spent five minutes ... Well, maybe not five minutes. Two minutes talking about climate models and how hard it is to do, and, you know, it's like, "Climate models are very uncertain." Um, and then, uh, uh, at another point, he talks about the economic models. He says, "A warming of ... " Uh, and again, I don't know the exact quote, but, "Warming of two or three degrees? Why, that's 4% of GDP. That's nothing." And, you know, economic models are terrible. If you don't (laughs) believe the climate models, the economic models are absolutely awful, and I can go in ... I, I can explain that. In fact, let me tell you a story about economic models, about ... And why you should not believe them, and we'll get back to how he doesn't talk about the uncertainty in those at all. So in the 2010s, the Obama administration put out this thing called the social cost of carbon, and that's basically the cost of the damages from one ton of carbon added to the atmosphere. So they say if you emit one ton of carbon, uh, we have our economic model and, and it's gonna cost $35 of damage. And (laughs) they have a way of doing it. I won't go into details. Then the Trump administration comes in, and they redo the calculation, and they get $3. Now what changed? It wasn't the science. It was the assumptions going into the economic model. The Trump administration didn't put very much value on future people and didn't put any value on people outside of the US, and so what that means is, uh, the difference came down to a value judgment. Do we care about damages to the rest of the world? Do we care about damages to future generations? That's not a scientific question, that's a moral question, and these economic estimates are completely suffused with value judgments, and they're really ... I mean, I could go on about this.

Joe Rogan 22:21 Could you ex- just expand upon what those economic damages would be and how it would affect people?

Andrew Dessler 22:26 Sure. So, you know, damages of, um ... Okay, so let's talk about the impacts of climate change. Actually, let me get that in a say. Let me just wrap up what I'm saying.

Joe Rogan 22:34 Okay. Sure, sure, sure.

Andrew Dessler 22:34 So the economic estimates are, are absolutely unreliable, in my view, and, and Dr. Koonin, he, he didn't even mention that there was uncertainty in it. He says, "It's 4%" eh, eh, as if that's a perfect number, and that's exac- that's a classic merchant of doubt strategy. Uh, this number over here, which convicts my ... which is not good for my client, that's a terrible number. Let me tell you why. This number, this supports my client, it's perfect. Uh, uh, and so that's a classic merchant of doubt strategy, and, and, you know, he does that repeatedly. It's not wrong. I can't say what he said was wrong, but I can say that it was a choice he made to bolster his, his client. Now ... Uh, which is carbon dioxide. Now, um, let's talk about the impacts of climate change, is what you're asking. So let's talk about the i- so when you warm the climate, you do a bunch of things.

Joe Rogan 23:20 But not just the impact of climate, but you, you're saying that he is not looking at it in terms of, like, how it affects the world.

Andrew Dessler 23:27 Well, the, um ... That was an example of the Trump administration-

Joe Rogan 23:30 Right.

Andrew Dessler 23:30 ... how the assumptions that go into these economic models can make a factor of ten difference in what you estimate. And if, if the assumptions that an economist makes when he's ... Uh, the value judgments, the values of the economist when they're doing a calculation can make a factor of ten difference. Now you can't look at that as a reliable number. That's my, uh, you know, that's, that's my opinion. In fact, I have a slide that shows the damages. Um, let me find out where that one is.

Joe Rogan 23:57 So in your opinion, he's, he's looking at it leniently.

Andrew Dessler 24:01 Oh, here we go.

Narrator 24:01 I just Googled that, and yesterday this happ- uh, this is a news article from (clears throat) , uh, a federal court decision.

Joe Rogan 24:07 It says, "Federal Judge Halts Biden Administration from Using 'Social Cost of Carbon'." Can you scroll up so I can read what it says? "Federal judge is barring the Biden administration from using the 'social cost of carbon' put into place on January 20th, 2021. The decision, issued Friday, affects the interim figure in place now, as well as an updated metric expected to be issued later this month." Huh.

Andrew Dessler 24:34 Right. And so he, it says there, uh, uh, "$51 per metric ton." So that's the value. Uh, if this were the Trump administration, they would put $5 per metric ton on that. And again, uh, you know, which value is right? And this shows you that there's huge uncertainty in the, uh, in the estimates.

Joe Rogan 24:49 And so it says here, "The case, brought up by 10 states including Le- Louisiana and West Virginia, challenged the interim metric, arguing that it was arbitrarily set and would increase the cost of energy production and other activities." So, how much of an effect does this have on what you're saying?

Andrew Dessler 25:08 Uh, this is, uh, noise. I mean, this is not... This, I mean, my, my point is about the reliability of these economic estimates. And these reliabilities, uh, we have no, we have no idea what the cost of climate change is gonna be. And I think-

Joe Rogan 25:20 So when he's saying, when the, the, they're ruling that you can't use that, that term, the cost of, like-

Andrew Dessler 25:27 No, this, this is-

Joe Rogan 25:27 What exactly, what exactly ... They're saying put it, put it back up again so I can see it one more time?

Andrew Dessler 25:30 Yeah. I think this is actually a lot less than what you're trying to... This is probably some-

Joe Rogan 25:34 Well, sc- scroll back up to the top so I can read the, the headlines again. So it's saying the federal judge halts Biden administration from using the social cost of carbon.

Andrew Dessler 25:44 They're not, they're not, they're not, uh, they're not, uh, stopping people from using that. What they're saying is the Biden administration reversed the Trump administration. And when you do that, there are certain rules about how an administration can change a, a, an executive order from a different one. And what they're saying is they didn't quite follow the right procedures. That's my... I haven't read this, but that's my interpretation of this.

Joe Rogan 26:06 It says here, "The plaintiffs did not challenge a particular use of the Biden administration's social cost figure, but rather its potential applications." So I guess what they're saying is that they, they don't want the Biden adminis- administration applying this i- idea of social cost.

Andrew Dessler 26:24 Right. And, and if you look at it, it's Louisiana and West Virginia. Those are fossil-fuel-producing states.

Joe Rogan 26:29 Mm.

Andrew Dessler 26:29 Um, and, you know, the social, uh, uh, social cost of carbon, uh, is, is bad for fossil fuels, because it makes them pay for the impacts, uh, uh, that they're ... Or at least it, it incorporates the, the cost of the impacts in the decisions. But this doesn't challenge sort of ... This doesn't have any impact on what I'm saying about these economic estimates are not reliable. And so when-

Joe Rogan 26:50 Right.

Andrew Dessler 26:50 ... when Dr. Koonin says, "It's only 4% of GDP," uh, you know, maybe it's 4%. Maybe it's 80%. And, um ...

Joe Rogan 26:58 80%?

Andrew Dessler 26:59 Sure. Could you go to slide 28? So, to give you an idea of how economists have no idea what the impact does, this is a plot of the, um, of the damage. So it's the reduction of GDP as a function of temperature. Now unfortunately, this is in Celsius. To convert from Celsi- Celsius change to Fahrenheit change, you just multiply it by two, about two. So five degrees Celsius is about nine degrees Fahrenheit. And you can see that these estimates don't agree at all. You know, some people say that a five-degree warming Celsius, about nine degrees Fahrenheit, would only reduce GDP by, you know, 8%.

Joe Rogan 27:39 But that's a giant number, isn't it?

Andrew Dessler 27:41 8% is a, uh, a pr- Well, this way. If it really-

Joe Rogan 27:43 Is anybody forecasting that kind of a rise in temperature?

Andrew Dessler 27:47 Um, no. Th- but let me, uh-

Joe Rogan 27:49 So why use that?

Andrew Dessler 27:50 Well, I'm just saying, at the end, you can look at ... I mean, let's go to three degrees. So three degrees, which-

Joe Rogan 27:55 But is anybody even saying three degrees?

Andrew Dessler 27:57 Yeah. Three degrees is where we're at, and three degrees Centigrade, six, uh, five degrees Fahrenheit. That's where we're going now. We're-

Joe Rogan 28:02 In how much of a time period?

Andrew Dessler 28:03 That's 2100. So in 2100, we will be five degrees warmer.

Joe Rogan 28:07 Overall?

Andrew Dessler 28:08 Global average, yes.

Joe Rogan 28:10 Wow.

Andrew Dessler 28:10 So, so through, now five degrees is high. That's at the very top end of the worst, worst-case scenario. Three degrees Celsius, five degrees Fahrenheit.

Joe Rogan 28:19 I'd never heard it that high. I'd, I'd heard like a couple of degrees.

Andrew Dessler 28:23 Well-

Joe Rogan 28:23 Maybe I'm reading the wrong stuff.

Andrew Dessler 28:24 Well, okay. So if the, if you're ... So this is where (laughs) being an American's a disadvantage. You know, we talk in Fahrenheit. In Celsius, it is a couple degrees. It's three degrees Celsius. That's a couple degrees.

Joe Rogan 28:33 I remember they tried, they tried to push that on us when I was in school.

Andrew Dessler 28:35 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 28:35 I should have just accepted it.

Andrew Dessler 28:36 We sh- we should have accepted it.

Joe Rogan 28:37 And soccer.

Andrew Dessler 28:38 That's a-

Joe Rogan 28:38 They were trying to push soccer as well, remember?

Andrew Dessler 28:40 That, that is correct. Um, yeah. So, so three degrees Celsius is about five degrees Fahrenheit.

Joe Rogan 28:45 Okay.

Andrew Dessler 28:45 That is w- that's where we're going. And if you kind of look at, even look at three degrees, the est- the estimates differ by a factor of 10. You know, some people are saying 20% loss of GDP. Others are saying 2% or 3% loss of GDP. I mean, the, and all of these are lower limits. It's going to be worse than this. And the reason they're lower limits is because, um, uh, the majority of them add in ... They, they, they do this we call bottom-up approach. They say, "Okay, what's the effect of agriculture? And what's the, gonna be the effect of sea level rise? And what's gonna be the effect of warmer temperatures on productivity?" And they kind of sum 'em up. But they leave out all of these things. Uh, ocean acidification. How do you even value that? Uh, permafrost melting. How is that valued? All of these things are left out of many of these estimates. And so, uh, uh, you know, the important thing, again, uh, I just can't get over this: we have no idea what the cost of climate impacts are gonna be.

Joe Rogan 29:37 Wow.

Andrew Dessler 29:37 Anybody who tells you that they know what three degrees is gonna be like is either a liar or a fool. We have no idea. Now, I then cannot tell you it's gonna be bad. But I think it could be bad. It could be very bad. Especially when you look at the Texas freeze. I mean, that was a really bad event. That was $200 billion of damages. And, uh-

Joe Rogan 29:58 That's a unique event, though, isn't it? And is, isn't it also unique in that Texas has its own grid?

Andrew Dessler 30:03 Sure. The ... Every event is unique in its own way.

Joe Rogan 30:05 Right.

Andrew Dessler 30:05 But the point I'm trying to make here is how vulnerable we are, uh, to these climate impacts. You know, we're extremely vulnerable to, to these changes. And so this idea that it's gonna be nothing, it's gonna s- you know, instead of, uh, you know ... You won't even notice it. I mean, nobody can tell you if that's right or not. And in many ways, that's the biggest reason to act on climate change-

Joe Rogan 30:28 So-

Andrew Dessler 30:28 Because we don't know.

Joe Rogan 30:29 ... this, uh, raise in temperature and the associated cost that's involved-... um, what would that cost be because of? Would it be flooding near the coasts? Would it be, uh, drought? Like, what, what would be the added costs?

Andrew Dessler 30:44 Oh, it's everything. I mean, we live in a world that is optimized for the temperature range that we are in.

Joe Rogan 30:51 Mm.

Andrew Dessler 30:52 So, when you build a bridge, for example, the engineer says, "Okay, what's the temperature range that this bridge can experience?" Because bridges expand and contract, and you have to make sure that it's, it's like, okay, this is the range. And then as you depart from that, um... I have some slides on that, um, which I will, I will look up as I'm talking. Um, uh, could you go to 46? Um, uh, it's w- we're just now getting to the point where we're beginning to depart from the range of infrastructure. So, for example, you can see on the left, heatwave made this bridge too small to function. And so that's one thing. You say, well that, okay, that one thing by itself, not a, not b- it's probably a bridge that, that opens. Would it?

Joe Rogan 31:31 Oh, oh, right, right, right. And then, yeah, it looks like it is. And then the other one.

Andrew Dessler 31:36 Right.

Joe Rogan 31:36 Does it look like it is?

Andrew Dessler 31:39 Well, I don't know the details of that bridge, to be honest. I'm sure, I'm sure in the comments.

Joe Rogan 31:42 It's got the lights.

Andrew Dessler 31:43 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 31:44 Are th- are those lights the ones that they use when they-

Narrator 31:46 That's in Chicago. I can check real quick.

Joe Rogan 31:48 Yeah, check that.

Narrator 31:49 Ducey Bridge.

Joe Rogan 31:49 'Cause that, that seems weird.

Andrew Dessler 31:51 But in any event, no, I've seen this many places where bridges, it gets too hot, and the bridges, they have to close the bridges because they-

Joe Rogan 31:57 So, it's because of the asphalt, and-

Andrew Dessler 31:59 It's their, they expand. You know, they're made of-

Joe Rogan 32:00 Right.

Andrew Dessler 32:00 ... metal and, and stuff that expands when it heats up.

Joe Rogan 32:03 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 32:03 And, um, uh, the slide on the right, which you can't see anymore, shows some train tracks. And again, when you build train tracks, you assume a temperature range. And, uh-

Joe Rogan 32:12 So it does lift, yeah.

Narrator 32:14 Oh, there it is, yeah.

Joe Rogan 32:14 So it got too small from... That's wild that they lift like that. Um, so it got too small and then it wouldn't, uh, disconnect.

Andrew Dessler 32:22 Yeah, yeah.

Joe Rogan 32:23 And, and separate.

Andrew Dessler 32:23 Exactly.

Joe Rogan 32:24 And then the one on the right, that looks really old. Like, what is that from?

Andrew Dessler 32:28 Um, you know, I don't know exactly when that picture was taken, but-

Joe Rogan 32:30 Extreme heat caused railroad tracks in New Jersey to buckle.

Andrew Dessler 32:33 Right.

Joe Rogan 32:33 Giving them a spaghetti-like look.

Andrew Dessler 32:35 Because they expand too much.

Joe Rogan 32:37 Or 'cause they made it in New Jersey.

Narrator 32:38 (laughs)

Joe Rogan 32:39 A bunch of mobsters, they cut corners.

Andrew Dessler 32:40 Uh.

Joe Rogan 32:40 What do you think, Jamie?

Andrew Dessler 32:42 Well, it's-

Joe Rogan 32:42 I've never seen that before, but that is pretty wild.

Andrew Dessler 32:43 It's because there's a, it's because there's a body under there that's decomposing.

Joe Rogan 32:46 Ah.

Andrew Dessler 32:46 But-

Joe Rogan 32:47 So that, that is crazy. Like, I did not know that if it got that hot, that it would turn and, and wiggle like that.

Andrew Dessler 32:53 Yeah, I mean, here's the, here's the thing, th- they're, they're pointed towards each other, and they expand.

Joe Rogan 32:57 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 32:57 And if they expand into each other-

Joe Rogan 32:58 They press.

Andrew Dessler 32:58 ... they've got, they, they buckle.

Joe Rogan 33:00 Right, they press in the middle.

Andrew Dessler 33:00 And the thing about, the thing you have to understand is, we have trillions of adaptations exactly like that to the climate. You know, when-

Joe Rogan 33:08 Mm.

Andrew Dessler 33:08 ... the, when the Pacific Northwest heatwave occurred, uh, s- uh, pavement in, uh, Portland was buckling, 'cause it just got too hot. They never expected it to get to 120 degrees.

Joe Rogan 33:18 Right.

Andrew Dessler 33:19 Or however, 150, however it got that high. And so, there, eh, when, when we, when the temperature departs the range that we're kind of in now, we're just-

Joe Rogan 33:28 There it is, hey.

Andrew Dessler 33:29 Oh, there it is, actually, I hadn't, yeah.

Joe Rogan 33:30 Why roads in the Pacific Northwest buckled under extreme heat. Oh wow, look at that. That's crazy.

Andrew Dessler 33:35 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 33:35 Looks like a whole volcano underneath it.

Andrew Dessler 33:37 Yeah, that's right. And I mean, it, it, this is going to be incredibly expensive to fix, the, the trillions of tiny adaptations we have. And so this idea that, um, uh, you know, this is not gonna be expensive, nobody has any idea how expensive this is gonna be. Nobody.

Joe Rogan 33:52 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 33:52 And so, and so again, for somebody to come on here and confidently say, "It's gonna be 4% of GDP, uh, with this much warming," uh, that's, you know, that's defense lawyer. That's what a defense lawyer says.

Joe Rogan 34:02 Mm.

Andrew Dessler 34:02 You know, "My, my client's a great family man, and it's gonna be," you know, uh...

Joe Rogan 34:06 Here's another one. The heat so strong in rural Australia it bent a railroad track. Look at that. That one's nuts. That's even crazier than the one in New Jersey. That is insane. Is that real?

Narrator 34:15 I don't know. I think they're fixing it. I don't... (laughs) I can't tell.

Joe Rogan 34:18 Oh. Well, it's just, even if they are fixing it, how'd the metal get bent like that? Look how the asphalts pushed-

Narrator 34:23 That's for sure.

Joe Rogan 34:23 ... or the rocks, rather, and gravels pushed to the side. So, um, so what, what Coonen was doing, i- in your mind is looking at absolute best case scenario and ignoring all the potential things that could go sideways, like these infrastructure things you're pointing out.

Andrew Dessler 34:40 Yeah, I mean, uh, he, you know, what, what does a defense lawyer do? You know, "My client is an upstanding family man." You know, CO2 is plant food.

Joe Rogan 34:47 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 34:47 "Uh, my client, uh, you know, could not have done it. It was somebody else." You know, he was talking about ocean circu- oh, it's ocean cycles. He mentioned that during his interview. And what he doesn't tell you is the, the, you know, CO2 was found with the victim's blood all over him, and he was holding a knife.

Joe Rogan 35:02 (laughs)

Andrew Dessler 35:02 And there's videotape of him stabbing the client. And I'd be happy to go over why we're so c- I mean, twice, you asked him what fraction of the warming is due to humans, and he basically blew you off several times saying, "Uh, we have no idea." And that is abso- that's one of the things that's absolutely wrong.

Joe Rogan 35:17 Okay, so what fraction of the warming is due to humans?

Andrew Dessler 35:20 So the best estimate is that it's 100%. It's all the warming.

Joe Rogan 35:24 What?

Andrew Dessler 35:24 So let me, let me explain why that's the case. So, so begin with, let's be cl- clear, we're talking about the warming over the last century plus, last 150 years. So if you could go to slide 23, and let me explain, and I'm gonna give you kind of a cartoon version. This is actually how I teach my undergrad class, uh, uh, uh, what we call detection attribution. And the first thing you have to realize is that if the climate changes, there has to be a physical reason. You have t- you know, how... If a, if a house is burglarized, somebody did it. And if the climate is changing, there has to be a reason. So we can list the suspects. So this is from The Usual Suspects, of course.

Joe Rogan 36:00 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 36:00 And we can l- and we know what's changed the climate in the past, and so we can investigate. And so we know that continental drift, the fact that the continents are moving, that can change the climate.

Joe Rogan 36:10 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 36:10 Uh, we know that the sun's output, the, s- the sun is the ultimate source of energy for our climate. If the sun gets brighter, that could cause climate change. Uh, orbital variations, that's what actually drives the Ice Ages. It's the fact that the Earth's orbit varies over, over long time scales. Uh, ocean cycles, that's what he said, uh, like things like El Nino. He said, w- you know, "We don't under-... That could be it." And then finally, you have greenhouse gases. Uh, so can you go to the next slide?... and so, we can exclude all the suspects. We can exclude continental drift. It's too slow. The continents haven't moved in the last century. Uh, orbital variations, also too slow. That's a 100,000-year process. Uh, the sun. We have observations. We measure the output of the sun. It's not getting brighter, at least since we've been measuring them from the '70s. Uh, ocean cycles. That one actually is the hardest one to exclude, but we don't have any evidence to support it. So imagine, you know, someone was on trial, and the only evidence that they did it was that they didn't have an alibi. There was actually no evidence that they did it. If you were on a jury, you wouldn't convict them. You know, they said they were home playing their Xbox, but nobody saw them, and so they're obviously, they obviously murdered that person. You would not convict somebody for whom the only evidence is absence of an alibi. And that, for ocean cycles, that's the only thing you can point to.

Joe Rogan 37:28 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 37:28 We don't have ... We, we can't rule it out.

Joe Rogan 37:30 Okay.

Andrew Dessler 37:30 But we don't have any evidence that it did it. And then, you have greenhouse gases. So I like to call greenhouse gases the world's dumbest criminal. It dropped its wallet at the crime scene. It ... uh, you have fingerprints, there's videotape of it committing the crime. It was bragging to its friends that it did it. Um, you know, when they arrested him, all the stolen stuff was in the trunk. Um, can you go to the next slide? So, uh, again, I don't know if you want to read this.

Joe Rogan 37:54 Okay.

Andrew Dessler 37:54 But we have massive amounts of evidence that carbon dioxide is responsible for the warming of the last 100 years. And there's no other explanation. And you put it all together, uh, the scientific, uh, consensus is that, uh, we're responsible for all of the warming. 100%.

Joe Rogan 38:12 So there's, so there's a lot of people that are just, uh, listening to this, so we'll read this off. Theor- um, the, uh, different, um, things that you highlighted are-

Andrew Dessler 38:18 Oh, sure.

Joe Rogan 38:18 ... theoretical reasons why adding CO2 will warm the climate. CO2 is going up. Geologic record shows correspondence between CO2 and temperature. Fingerprints and climate model support this also.

Andrew Dessler 38:30 Yeah, let me, let me ... I can talk a little bit more about this.

Joe Rogan 38:32 Sure.

Andrew Dessler 38:33 Um, so we've known since the 1800s that if you add a gas, a greenhouse gas - those are gases that absorb infrared radiation - if you add that to the atmosphere, it's going to warm the climate. We've known that since Arrhenius in the 1890s. Um, we, we also know that carbon dioxide is going up, all right? I mean, I, I don't think there's any dispute about that. It's going up because humans are consuming fossil fuels. That's the main reason. Um, and so you put those together, and in the 1890s, people were predicting that we would see global warming. And that was 1890. They said, "We can't see it yet, 'cause we don't have measurements, but this is going to warm the climate." So indeed, it is w- when you see the climate going up, you think, okay, that makes sense. If you look back at the paleo record, we have good, we have reasonable estimates of what the climate was back a billion years. Uh, not super good, and you have to infer them. There's obviously uncertainty in that. But you can see that in periods when the carbon dioxide was low, there was a lot more ice on the planet. 'Cause you can tell if there's ice covering regions of the planet. And you can, and so you can see this correspondence between low CO2 and lots of ice. It's not perfect, and if you want to, you can point out a period, well, high CO2 here and ... but, but it's a pretty good correspondence. Um, can you put that slide back up so I make sure I don't forget?

Joe Rogan 39:45 Is there any instances of high CO2 but low temperatures?

Andrew Dessler 39:49 Um, you know, I have ... Let me, I actually ... Can you go to slide 26? Actually, I, I can show you the data. So this plot, the bottom plot shows millions of years, uh, and the, uh, left-hand axis, which goes with the orange line, is atmospheric CO2. You can see atmospheric CO2 varied from 2,000 parts per million, which is about four time- five times as much as there is today, to 250 parts per million, which is about 60% of what it is today. And the, the blue shows how far down ... That goes with the right-hand axis. That shows how far down the ice went. And you can see that in periods when the CO2 is low, um, there was, um, you know, there was a lot of ice. Now, you can also see there's some variability that doesn't necessarily reflect itself with ice. So, uh, if you go back 400 million years right before the CO2 line starts, you can see a period that might have high CO2 and ice. But, you know, there are lots of other things that could be going on. You know, the, a single outlier like that, you don't want to use to contradict the overarching picture of the trend. Um, and, and then, um, going, and so going back that line, next one is called fingerprints. So what, what a fingerprint is, is it's a way to separate various forcing agents. So, for example, if the sun were causing climate change, we would expect the entire atmosphere to warm. That's a prediction that you can work that out, uh, just theoretically. If cli- if greenhouse gases are causing the warming, the lower atmosphere warms, the upper atmosphere cools. So that's a fingerprint, and indeed, that's what we see. We see the lower atmosphere warming, we see the upper atmosphere cooling. That's a fingerprint of carbon dioxide. That's-

Joe Rogan 41:32 What, what would it normally be? If, if there wasn't, there wasn't the amount of greenhouse gases, wh- how, how do you determine? Like, is there a percentage in terms of, like, what's warm in the lower atmosphere versus cool in the higher atmosphere?

Andrew Dessler 41:44 Right, right. So we're just looking at trends.

Joe Rogan 41:46 Right.

Andrew Dessler 41:46 So we're not, we're not looking at, we're not concerned with what's normal. We're just concerned with what's, what's been happening over the la- you know, we've been measuring upper atmosphere maybe 50 years on balloons. And over that 50 years, uh, you can see temperatures going down. Actually, probably not 50 years, maybe 30 years. You can see temperatures going down, uh, uh, in, in agreement with what you would expect from adding carbon dioxide. And there's some other things going on. There's ozone depletion, which is also affects the trends in the, in the stratosphere?

Joe Rogan 42:14 So- Sorry. How do we know that the temperature in the upper atmosphere goes down when you add carbon dioxide?

Andrew Dessler 42:20 Oh, okay. That's, uh, that's a good ... You know, I, I often ask that question to graduate students. Um, so basically, you, um ... let me think. What's a, what's a good way to think about it? So, so, um, when you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, um, eh-... I'm trying to think about a way to say, you increase the emissivity of the stratosphere. Um, so basically, probably the best way to say it is, when you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, if you add it to the lower atmosphere, uh, you're basically trapping heat. If you add it to the upper atmosphere, you actually increase the ability to radiate to space. And so by adding to the upper atmosphere, it's radiating directly to space, and so it actually can cool the atmosphere. In the lower atmosphere, you're, you're, uh, it doesn't have the ability to radiate directly to space, and it basically just traps heat. Now, I'm gonna get angry emails about that, 'cause that's not ... That, that's a great simplification of it, but that's basically the way to think of it. But, the, the important thing is, this is really firmly established, theoretically.

Joe Rogan 43:18 Okay. So-

Andrew Dessler 43:19 And I, and I doubt Dr. Koonin would argue with that.

Joe Rogan 43:21 So, so clearly there's an observable trend that matches the model that high CO2 is causing a warming of the lower atmosphere and a cooling of the upper atmosphere, and this is measurable.

Andrew Dessler 43:32 It's not, and, and it's important to say, this is not a model result. This is, you know, this is fundamental physics. This is just a few equations. This is not a global climate model.

Joe Rogan 43:42 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 43:42 You don't need that kind of model. This is just simple physical principles applied to the problem.

Joe Rogan 43:49 Does anybody argue against this?

Andrew Dessler 43:50 I don't think anybody would argue with that point.

Joe Rogan 43:52 So-

Andrew Dessler 43:52 That fingerprint.

Joe Rogan 43:53 So that fingerprint shows that greenhouse gases are responsible for a, a clear and measurable warming.

Andrew Dessler 44:01 Yeah, I mean, here's, here's the point. Let me just reiterate this. Uh, Dr. Koonin, he doesn't say anything that's wrong. He just doesn't talk about it.

Joe Rogan 44:07 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 44:07 So he's never going to talk about the CO2 fingerprint, because that doesn't support his client.

Joe Rogan 44:12 Do you, so do you think he's doing this because of his ... I mean, do you have an opinion about this? Is he doing this because of his past? Working for BP? Working for previous administrations? He worked for the Obam- Obama administration, which was a more environmentally friendly administration than the Trump administration, but like, what do you think would be the reason or the motivation behind doing something like that?

Andrew Dessler 44:37 You know, I don't care to speculate. I actually have no idea what causes people to, to say these things. But as I said before, you know, he's not unique. You know, uh-

Joe Rogan 44:45 Right.

Andrew Dessler 44:45 ... people ... He's not the first person in, in climate change to say this. What is kind of interesting is over time, the Koonin-like person has changed their views quite a bit. In the 1990s, the people like him were saying, "The Earth's not warming." And they were saying, "It wasn't, humans aren't having an effect." And then, as those ide- arguments became increasingly ridiculous, now he actually has quite ... In, in many respects, I think we actually agree on a lot of things. He agrees the Earth is warming, he agrees humans are having influence. He's always playing up uncertainty to get to a conclusion that his client is ... He's trying to create reasonable doubt. He's doing what a defense lawyer does. Reasonable doubt is his product. In fact, there's a memo, uh, from a tobacco executive which explicitly says, "That's our goal. We're not trying to win the debate. We're not trying to convince people that smoking is safe. We're trying to create doubt in the mind of the general public." And that's exactly the goal here. It's not to prove that, uh, uh ... You know, 'cause he can't prove that-

Joe Rogan 45:40 Right.

Andrew Dessler 45:41 ... that carbon dioxide's not ... He's just trying to create doubt. He's trying to slow down action. At least, that's, that's gonna be the net effect, if he's successful. And again, I don't understand ... I'm not gonna say why he's doing it. I don't, I don't know.

Joe Rogan 45:52 Now, when he talks about it and he shows these charts of, you know, a period of, uh, many hundreds of years, and the temperature of the Earth over that time, it does seem to be having this fluctuating effect which mirrors what we're seeing now.

Andrew Dessler 46:09 Um, not really. Well, it depends exactly what you're talking about. So if you look at the last thousand years, uh, there's no period like the last 100 years.

Joe Rogan 46:17 In what way?

Andrew Dessler 46:18 There, I mean, I wish I had a slide of it. I don't. But I mean, the last thousand years, the temperature was basically pretty flat, and we've had a one-degree rise in temperature in the last ... You know, it does look like a hockey stick. You've probably heard of the hockey stick?

Joe Rogan 46:29 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 46:29 It does kind of look like a hockey stick. And, uh, you know, so, so the, the, the paleo record doesn't really support ... The, the pale- or the historical record doesn't show anything like the last century. Now, let me be clear. The argument in favor of carbon dioxide is not that you can't go into the historical record and ever find anything like that. That's not the argument. The argument, as I laid it out, is, we know carbon dioxide traps heat. We know that. That's fundamental physics. We know we're adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. That's fundamental physics. We know the Earth is warming, and it's warming about as much as our theories suggest. So, a lot of what this is, is it's just kind of a shiny object to, to distract you. Like, let's talk about, uh, Greenland melting in 1930. That's a distraction. It doesn't take away from the fact that humans are warming the climate, and that as the climate warms, Greenland's going to melt a lot more.

Joe Rogan 47:22 So there are these aberrations in, when you look at long periods of time, where it does get unusually warm or it does get unusually cool. But what you're saying is make no mistake about it, the, what's happening right now is unusual and it's caused by humans.

Andrew Dessler 47:39 I wouldn't say it's unusual. I mean, if you go back 60 million years, uh, there was no ice anywhere on the planet. There were palm trees in Wyoming, there were alligators in the Arctic. It was a different world. Uh, uh, and it was also a high CO2 world, by the way. And that's not a coincidence. So what we're ... So I wouldn't say it's unusual. What I say is, humans are driving this warming. And you know, modern human society, with millions of cities of millions of people and trillions of dollars of architecture, uh, of infrastructure, that's maybe 100, 150 years old. We've never experienced the kinds of warming that's coming. And it is go- it could be a terrible, terrible ride. Nobody really knows. And you know, my ... And let me be clear. I'm speaking now as a parent, as a citizen, not as a scientist, 'cause science doesn't tell you this. My opinion as someone who knows a lot about this is I don't want to run the experiment.... I don't wanna see if Dr. Koonin is right and the impacts are small. I think we should take action. And, and the key thing is, we can take action at very low cost. Because, and we haven't talked about it, uh, fossil fuels are incredibly expensive. Not the price you pay at the well, but the cost to society is extremely high. So, uh, you know, we can take action at low cost. It's a risk. We should do this. I'm speaking, again, that's my personal opinion, not as a scientist, 'cause science doesn't tell you that. That's my personal opinion as a citizen.

Joe Rogan 48:58 What I'm saying about it being unusual, not that it's n- not unusual in terms of, like, historically over the time that the Earth has existed, but I mean that there's this moment where it's very clear that human beings are doing it.

Andrew Dessler 49:11 Yeah, that's-

Joe Rogan 49:11 That's-

Andrew Dessler 49:12 ... yeah, if you mean unusual that way-

Joe Rogan 49:13 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 49:13 ... that's, yeah, I would agree with that.

Joe Rogan 49:14 So, and that this is very measurable. So-

Andrew Dessler 49:16 Absolutely. There's-

Joe Rogan 49:17 So-

Andrew Dessler 49:17 ... there's no, there's no debate in the scientific community about this.

Joe Rogan 49:20 So, what can be done in terms of having an impact on, on f- the fossil fuel consumption and w- what would that do to this overall model of, uh, global warming? Or climate change, I should say?

Andrew Dessler 49:38 Yeah, well, okay, so we know, we know basically how to decarbonize our economy. I mean, we can do it. And in fact, um, let me find a good slide which I think really, uh, I think probably up front, which really shows this. Um, da, da, da. Uh, I will keep talking while I look for this. Um, so yeah, we, we know how to decarbonize. Oh, could you go to slide 37? So, you know, fossil fuels have already lost, so they're already on their way out. Um, this plot is the ERCOT, so ERCOT is the Texas grid, and this shows the power that's getting connected to the Texas grid, uh, by w- by source. And, and, uh, the, uh, the horizontal line shows the different sources and the bars are different years. Don't worry about the different years. You can see, nobody's hooking fossil fuels up to the Texas grid. There's a little bit of gas, but it's mainly wind and solar, and there's actually a little bit of battery. You know, it used to be, if you looked at older years, they had coal as a separate category, but nobody's hooked coal up to the grid in so long that they just lumped it in with other, which is zero.

Joe Rogan 50:38 I can't believe how big solar's impact is.

Andrew Dessler 50:40 Yeah, no, I mean, this, that-

Joe Rogan 50:41 I would've never guessed that.

Andrew Dessler 50:42 Yeah, no, th- so fossil fuels have already lost, and the reason they've already lost is they're expensive. You know, people don't want ... you know, if you're building energy, if you're an energy producer, you're gonna build the cheapest energy source, right?

Joe Rogan 50:55 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 50:55 So, it's wind and solar, and that, they're, the m- they're winning in the marketplace, and if you go to, um, uh, if you go to the previous slide. So, um, you know, uh, at this point it says, "Renewables will account for 95% of the growth in global power generation capacity."

Joe Rogan 51:12 Says, "Renewable energy has another record year of growth," says IEA, and then, "Anoth- another record year for renewable energy despite COVID-19," blah blah blah. "Two hundred and ninety gigawatts of new renewable energy generation capacity, mostly in the form of wind turbines and solar panels-"

Andrew Dessler 51:28 Wow.

Joe Rogan 51:28 "... has been installed around the world this year, beating the previous record last year. On current trends, renewable energy generating capacity will exceed that of fossil fuels and nuclear energy combined by 2026." I would've never guessed that.

Andrew Dessler 51:42 Yeah, I mean, this is new. So I'm not, I mean, th- this is-

Joe Rogan 51:45 Where are these, um, solar panels located that are gathering up this much power?

Andrew Dessler 51:49 I mean, they're everywhere. It's, it's rooftops. It's large solar plants. Are you talking about in Texas or the world?

Joe Rogan 51:55 Yeah, I mean, anywhere. Let's just-

Andrew Dessler 51:56 Yeah, I mean-

Joe Rogan 51:56 ... say Texas.

Andrew Dessler 51:56 ... it's just, it's, it's everywhere. Um, you know, in California, they're about to put, um, solar panels over a canal. There's lots of space to put solar panels. So for example, I would love it if they put solar panels on the parking lot outside my building, 'cause when I, you know, you walk out in July and get in your car and it's, you know-

Joe Rogan 52:13 Right.

Andrew Dessler 52:13 ... 300 degrees in there. Not literally-

Joe Rogan 52:15 Right.

Andrew Dessler 52:15 ... but it feels that way.

Joe Rogan 52:16 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 52:17 And so I would love to have, you know, there are lots of places to put solar panels that don't affect use at all. Rooftops, parking lots, canals.

Joe Rogan 52:24 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 52:25 Um, and so there's lots of space to put this. And, you know, it's, it's already, uh, uh, uh, as cheap, I mean, you can make an argument that maybe, maybe it's not cheaper th- than the cheapest fossil fuel, but it's very close, and if you look at the trend, the trend is so steeply down, you know that in a few years, fo- uh, renewables are gonna wipe out fossil fuels.

Joe Rogan 52:45 Now, what about when it comes to automobiles?

Andrew Dessler 52:48 Well, I mean, un- uh, electric cars are much better than internal combustion cars, if you've ever driven one. Um-

Joe Rogan 52:53 Yeah, I have one.

Andrew Dessler 52:53 ... I don't know what you dr-

Joe Rogan 52:54 I have a Tesla.

Andrew Dessler 52:54 Okay, so-

Joe Rogan 52:54 But-

Andrew Dessler 52:54 ... yeah, so I mean, it's much better-

Joe Rogan 52:56 But-

Andrew Dessler 52:56 ... than an internal combustion.

Joe Rogan 52:57 ... the way it's been explained to me is that there's not enough minerals to support, uh, the production of enough vehicles that are made simply with electricity.

Andrew Dessler 53:07 Yeah, you know, the people make, I, I'm always, I always find it ironic that the people who make those arguments are often people who will then tell you, uh, you know, the free market works, and we should let the, get the government out, let the market. So, what does a free market do if cobalt becomes rare? So, people are smart and the free market will innovate. They'll figure out ways to substitute other m- um, minerals for that. They'll figure out, I mean, uh, uh, the market will innovate its way out of this. If you believe in the free market, you believe the market will find some solutions. So I don't, I don't know the exact-

Joe Rogan 53:36 I think they've scaled it though. This is what's confusing, 'cause I've, I think I've read something that said that there are not enough rare earth minerals to power electric cars for every person on Earth, that it's physically impossible, that they don't exist in terms of, like-

Andrew Dessler 53:52 (laughs)

Joe Rogan 53:52 ... the, the ore, the whate- whatever the, the, the mines that we currently have that are-

Andrew Dessler 53:58 Right.

Joe Rogan 53:58 ... pulling these things outta the ground.

Andrew Dessler 53:59 Well, I mean, look. I would, I would be very skeptical of that. Remember when they said we were running out of oil? You know, this is like-

Joe Rogan 54:05 Yeah, but that, that, that's a different thing, isn't it? I mean, we've been extracting oil for a long time. We've only been making electric cars for-

Andrew Dessler 54:10 Right, but the-

Joe Rogan 54:11 ... a couple decades.

Andrew Dessler 54:11 ... my point, my point's about innovation. So innovation-

Joe Rogan 54:14 Sure.

Andrew Dessler 54:14 ... so, so if it-

Joe Rogan 54:15 But-

Andrew Dessler 54:15 ... turns out there's some chemi- so, there's some mineral, you know, make it, uh, or some, some element, cobalt or something like that, uh, the engineers are smart. They'll figure out a way around that. I mean, I, I don't, I can't, let me just tell you, I can't really speak authoritatively. This is not my area.

Joe Rogan 54:27 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 54:27 So I can't give you an authoritative answer. But I generally believe in the free market.And in this case, uh, I think the free market will, will work to solve that problem. But I mean, y- you know, h- uh, uh, I'm not an expert in that, so let me just say that.

Joe Rogan 54:40 Right. But that's a key problem here, right?

Andrew Dessler 54:44 Well, certainly. If you want to build, if you wanna scale up all of these, um, renewable energy sources, you have to be able to build it. And I do think that one of the concerns is not so much in the a- availability of these rare earth elements, but more in where they're located and how they're, how they're mined. So, a lot of them are, uh, you know, in Africa. And I do think you don't want to create problems where the mining is.

Joe Rogan 55:10 Right.

Andrew Dessler 55:11 Um, and so I did think that's, that's an issue.

Joe Rogan 55:13 Rare earth magnets mostly made of ... Say that word. Neodymium?

Andrew Dessler 55:17 Um, uh, yeah, neodymium.

Joe Rogan 55:19 Dymium.

Andrew Dessler 55:20 I guess.

Joe Rogan 55:20 Are widely seen as the most efficient way to power electric vehicles. China controls 90% of their supply. Oh, great. Prices of neodymi- neymium, uh, oxide more than doubled during a nine-month rally last year and are still up 90%. The US Department of Commerce said in June it's considering an investigation into the national security impacts of neodymium magnet imports.

Andrew Dessler 55:43 Yeah. I mean, let's think about ... Let's say you're a battery manufacturer in the US. Uh, you realize if you can figure out how to make a battery without that, without that compound, you're gonna be rich. And so this is gonna ... So once electric cars pick up, the innovation is going to be extremely impressive. And, and the reason I say that is not because, you know, pie in the sky, because that's our history. That ... The history-

Joe Rogan 56:06 Right.

Andrew Dessler 56:06 ... of environmental regulations causing advances in technology, uh, uh, you see that all the time. You know, just that plot of the price of solar and wind.

Joe Rogan 56:16 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 56:16 That's driven by concern for climate change. Yeah, it wasn't just like it happened to happen then. It happened because people see renewable energy as a future, and, and so there was, there was a lot of work done to produce that energy more cheaply. And I think that's what's gonna happen with electric cars.

Joe Rogan 56:31 I know that there are some theories and there's some concepts that they're working on in terms of like making these batteries more efficient and making these batteries, uh, quicker to charge and last longer, but I, I didn't know that there's, uh, new technology in terms of like different minerals that are more common that could be used as batteries or in batteries.

Andrew Dessler 56:52 Yeah. I mean, there's a huge amount of research. And I'm not a battery person, so I really can't speak on what the cutting edge of batteries is. But, but, but-

Joe Rogan 56:57 But something, if it was innovative, would change everything.

Andrew Dessler 57:00 Right. And I mean, the thing I realize is, that's extremely valuable.

Joe Rogan 57:03 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 57:03 If you're a company that makes batteries and you can come up with a different compound, something like that, um, that's where ... That's, that's gold. You know?

Joe Rogan 57:12 Right.

Andrew Dessler 57:12 Um, and so, uh, they're going to do that. And that's the way innovation and the free market works.

Joe Rogan 57:18 So, that's a hope. But this is something that's a necessity, right? Like, if we are going to use electric automobiles for every person-

Andrew Dessler 57:25 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 57:25 ... on the planet, this is a necessity. And right now, there's a, just a hope that the free market steps in and finds some sort of a viable solution.

Andrew Dessler 57:33 Well, as of right now, there's enough of these minerals. I mean, you can go-

Joe Rogan 57:36 There is?

Andrew Dessler 57:36 Sure. Well, as of right now, you can go buy a Tesla. I mean, the question is, can we s-

Joe Rogan 57:40 Yeah. But they're very expensive. Like if somebody wanted to go and buy an electric car and they were on a, like a very tight budget, there's a lot more financially viable options that are for industrial-

Andrew Dessler 57:51 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 57:52 ... or for, uh, internal combustion vehicles.

Andrew Dessler 57:53 Yeah. No, that's right. And I do think that you'll see the price of those come down, because that's the way the market works. Yeah.

Joe Rogan 57:58 Well actually, what is a Model 3? A Tesla Model 3 is like ... It's not too bad.

Andrew Dessler 58:03 It's only like 40-

Joe Rogan 58:04 I think they start-

Andrew Dessler 58:04 I think like 40K.

Joe Rogan 58:05 I think they start lo- like somewhere around then. And that's an amazing car for that amount of money. 40. 40? 45. 45-ish. So a little bit more. So it's not the cheapest car, but it's uh-

Andrew Dessler 58:17 No, but you're right. Most of the electric cars are ... They're aimed at a market for people who are concerned about climate change, you know, people who would otherwise be buying a BMW.

Joe Rogan 58:25 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 58:25 So I don't think there's been sort of the effort by the manufacturers to, to make a, a, a middle ... sort of a, a, a, a lower price point, um, car. But I will say, you know, the most exciting things for me is Ford and their F-150 truck.

Joe Rogan 58:42 Yes.

Andrew Dessler 58:42 I mean, yeah, you live in Texas. You know that-

Joe Rogan 58:44 Yes.

Andrew Dessler 58:44 ... you pull up to the light, every other car is a F-150 it seems.

Joe Rogan 58:47 And did you see the new commercial they had during the Super Bowl of the Chevy Silverado that's electric?

Andrew Dessler 58:52 I did not see that, but I, I heard about all the electric car commercials.

Joe Rogan 58:55 They pissed a lot of people off 'cause they used the Sopranos theme song, and then the kids from The Sopranos-

Andrew Dessler 59:00 Oh, right.

Joe Rogan 59:00 ... were in the ad. But the car, the new Chevy Silverado electric looks amazing. It looks cool. It looks like a S- ... See if you can find like a, a photo of it. It looks like a Silverado, but it looks like futuristic. There it is. Like look at that thing.

Andrew Dessler 59:15 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 59:16 That's electric. And that thing's sick. It looks like a Silverado, but just a little bit more streamlined, a little bit more futuristic.

Andrew Dessler 59:24 Oh yeah. And if you get in and drive one, it's like get rid of my internal combustion engine car, th- I mean they're much ... They drive better, they're cheaper to operate, you have lower maintenance issues.

Joe Rogan 59:34 Well, like I said, I have a Tesla and I have the stupid one, I have the plaid.

Andrew Dessler 59:38 All right.

Joe Rogan 59:38 It's ridiculous. It's the most ridiculous car I've ever driven.

Andrew Dessler 59:41 So-

Joe Rogan 59:41 At all ... That's the one car I would never get rid of.

Andrew Dessler 59:43 So have you ever actually gone somewhere and like accelerated, you know, done the quarter mile as fast as it can?

Joe Rogan 59:49 Uh, what do you th- Of course I have.

Andrew Dessler 59:51 (laughs)

Joe Rogan 59:51 How dare you ask me that question. Yeah, it's preposterous. It's zero to 60 in 1.9 seconds.

Andrew Dessler 59:56 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 59:56 It's ... I, I had my kids in it the other day. I'm like, "Are you ready?" They're like, "Let's go." And it's like y- when you accelerate on the highway, it's literally like you're on a, a rollercoaster.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:05 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:00:05 You can't believe it's that fast.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:06 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:00:06 And it's silent.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:07 Yeah, yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:00:08 So like when you pass people, you don't even feel like a douchebag.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:11 (laughs)

Joe Rogan 1:00:11 Like if someone's ... (laughs) If you need to like ... If you m- need to merge in traffic, you don't ... It's not making a loud noise. You're just going, "Whee."

Andrew Dessler 1:00:19 Right, right.

Joe Rogan 1:00:19 It's a much less aggressive way of like merging with traffic.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:24 So do you drive with full self-drive on?

Joe Rogan 1:00:26 No. I don't trust that.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:27 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:00:28 That seems a little sketch.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:30 I ... Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:00:30 I mean, I'm sure it's great, but I've done it a couple times just to show people. Like, "Watch this." Do-do. And then like, "Look, it's driving." But no.... I keep my fucking hands on the wheel.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:39 Yeah. I- I think that's-

Joe Rogan 1:00:40 I- I don't-

Andrew Dessler 1:00:40 ... that's smart.

Joe Rogan 1:00:40 It just doesn't... I mean, I get it. I get it works, but it's like, you don't want to be a statistic.

Andrew Dessler 1:00:47 Right. Right.

Joe Rogan 1:00:47 Um-

Andrew Dessler 1:00:47 And th- and it works 99.9% of the time.

Joe Rogan 1:00:49 Not enough. (laughs)

Andrew Dessler 1:00:50 But it's that 0.1.

Joe Rogan 1:00:51 Yeah. It's also, it's like, I wanna... If I see someone acting weird up there, I want to slow down. You know, if I see some guy who looks like he's drunk, I want to move over. You know, I want to be... I don't want to just zone out.

Andrew Dessler 1:01:02 Right.

Joe Rogan 1:01:03 But I used to use it when I'd come home from The Comedy Store when I lived in LA, and I used to use it for that reason, because I was tired. Because, you know, I'd come home. It's like 12:30 at night. I'd just get on the highway, go too-too, and just, for 10 minutes, just relax.

Andrew Dessler 1:01:15 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:01:15 You know, put my hand on the wheel, but just, I'm just driving straight, and there's not that many people on the road, and it's, it's a little bit more relaxing.

Andrew Dessler 1:01:21 Yeah, I think on the highway is where I would probably trust it the most, but-

Joe Rogan 1:01:24 Even then-

Andrew Dessler 1:01:25 ... you know?

Joe Rogan 1:01:25 ... when you see someone acting weird-

Andrew Dessler 1:01:26 Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:01:26 ... like, you want to, you know... Sometimes you want to drive defensively. You want to make maneuvers and...

Andrew Dessler 1:01:31 Yeah. The human brain is really amazing at its ability to assess situations. You just wonder, uh, you know, the AI's not there yet. Maybe it'll get there at some point, but...

Joe Rogan 1:01:39 Yeah. I don't think the AI's gonna spot drunks that good, 'cause you know, like, I'm good at spotting a guy who's n- either on a phone or drunk, or they're, you know, they're kind of like w- m- drifting a little bit and like, "This fucking guy," and I'll either slow down or I'll get ahead of him. But I generally like to slow down.

Andrew Dessler 1:01:55 Right.

Joe Rogan 1:01:55 I like to keep my eye on those fucks. (laughs) So, um, yeah. Electric cars are awesome. Um, I'm a big fan. And, uh, if they do innovate and figure out some sort of a way to... I should ask Elon about that, actually, like what they're gonna do, what the plan is in terms of like, uh, mass distribution.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:13 Yeah. No. I think it, you know, I'm sure he's thinking about it, and, uh-

Joe Rogan 1:02:16 He has to be.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:17 ... he has to be, and you know, again-

Joe Rogan 1:02:17 He's probably got an idea.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:18 ... the person who cracks it will be rich.

Joe Rogan 1:02:20 Well, yeah. One of the possibilities, and it sounds really ridiculous, but one of the possibilities is asteroid mining, right? I mean, 'cause they- they've- they've found these asteroids.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:29 Possibility.

Joe Rogan 1:02:30 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:30 I mean, I think that a lot of the stuff that people talk about doing in space is gonna turn out to be a lot more... Uh, that may turn out to not be economically viable.

Joe Rogan 1:02:38 Too difficult.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:39 Yeah. It's too-

Joe Rogan 1:02:39 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:39 I mean, uh, you know, you have to go somewhere, get the asteroid, bring it back, you know-

Joe Rogan 1:02:44 Hm.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:44 ... mine it. It's- it's a-

Joe Rogan 1:02:45 Right.

Andrew Dessler 1:02:45 ... hard problem.

Joe Rogan 1:02:46 Yeah. Okay. So, um, that's automobiles. Um, the elimination of coal-powered plants and these other things that are putting CO₂ and particulates into the environment, like, what- what can be done about those things, and how long do you think it would take to implement them, and what kind of a impact would that have on the, uh, the overall effect that human beings are having on the climate?

Andrew Dessler 1:03:10 Right. So, let me begin by saying nobody talks about shutting all this stuff off tomorrow. It's like-

Joe Rogan 1:03:16 Right.

Andrew Dessler 1:03:16 ... you know, "We're gonna shut this off tomorrow." Uh, there's debates about how fast to decarbonize. Uh, my personal view is that this is sort of a multi-decadal problem that you probably, um, just, you know... I think it's not unreasonable to shut down all the coal now, but the other stuff you probably want to let run out until it wears out, and then you just don't replace it with fossil fuel infrastructure. And, you know, that's, uh, certainly achievable. I mean-

Joe Rogan 1:03:38 What are the offenders in order? Like, what's the...

Andrew Dessler 1:03:40 So, um, coal is the worst greenhouse- or the wor- worst fossil fuel. Uh, you know, uh, someone I know calls coal, "the enemy of the human race." And-

Joe Rogan 1:03:48 Do you remember when Trump called it clean coal?

Andrew Dessler 1:03:51 Yeah. So, they've-

Joe Rogan 1:03:52 (laughs)

Andrew Dessler 1:03:52 ... you know, there's some people on Madison Avenue that's like, "How do we rebrand this?" Um, you know-

Joe Rogan 1:03:57 Clean coal.

Andrew Dessler 1:03:58 ... clean coal. It's, it's alliterative. Um-

Joe Rogan 1:03:59 But it's like the least clean thing you think of. You think of like-

Andrew Dessler 1:04:02 Hm.

Joe Rogan 1:04:02 ... grabbing coal, you're getting it everywhere.

Andrew Dessler 1:04:04 Right.

Joe Rogan 1:04:05 You think of it being in the s- in the air.

Andrew Dessler 1:04:07 Yeah. So, coal actually kills millions of people from air pollution around the world, uh, every year, tens of thousands of Americans. Uh, in addition, it releases the most amount of greenhouse gases, uh, per joule, per unit of energy you generate. So, it's really... So, so that's the worst, that's the worst fossil fuel, and we want to get rid of that as soon as we possibly can.

Joe Rogan 1:04:28 And the Americans that are dying from it, they're dying from the actual coal, from the poisoning in the air? Like-

Andrew Dessler 1:04:33 No. It's, it's, it's... So, coal puts out, uh, these chemicals, these small particulates. They often are referred to as PM2.5s, particulate matter with a, a size less than 2.5 microns, and if you breathe those in, those actually go deep into your lungs and get into your bloodstream. And there's lots of studies which show that, that coal, that when you d- when... If you live in very polluted air and you're breathing it in, uh, you'll have heart attacks more frequently, pr- you know, strokes. All these, all these health impacts uh, are associated with that. And, uh, you know, it's, it's tens of thousands of Americans every year from coal. And, uh, you know, this is something, again, the, the anti-climate people, they don't talk about it.

Joe Rogan 1:05:14 Mm-hmm.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:14 It's just, it's not something that supports their case, so-

Joe Rogan 1:05:16 Okay.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:16 ... they just leave that out.

Joe Rogan 1:05:18 Where is this happening the most in this country? Like, where, what's the most polluted by coal?

Andrew Dessler 1:05:22 Um, you know, that's a good question. I don't know exactly where it is, but it's anywhere that's downwind of a coal-fired power plant, and so-

Joe Rogan 1:05:28 Let's, let's find that out. Like, um, places in America most polluted by coal. Um, I'd never heard that. I didn't know that that many people-

Andrew Dessler 1:05:36 Yeah. You know-

Joe Rogan 1:05:37 ... were dying from coal poisoning every year.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:38 Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't call it coal poisoning. (laughs) I would call it air pollution, because it's really-

Joe Rogan 1:05:42 But it's-

Andrew Dessler 1:05:42 ... it's really-

Joe Rogan 1:05:42 ... directly a result of coal.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:43 Exactly. Yes. Yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:05:44 So, it's coal poisoning.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:45 Yeah. Uh, yeah.

Joe Rogan 1:05:46 Coal poisoning sounds better.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:47 Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, you, it-

Joe Rogan 1:05:48 Air pollution sounds like it's inevitable.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:50 I'll tell you, that's, that's a good branding.

Joe Rogan 1:05:52 I like it.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:52 Coal poisoning. Yeah. It is.

Joe Rogan 1:05:53 Coal poisoning.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:53 It is.

Joe Rogan 1:05:53 Yeah.

Andrew Dessler 1:05:53 It's exactly right.

Joe Rogan 1:05:54 How about make T-shirts that say, "Fuck coal," and just put like an asterisk over the U?

Andrew Dessler 1:05:58 I would wear that. (laughs)

Joe Rogan 1:06:00 (laughs)

Andrew Dessler 1:06:00 If you had... Yeah. Um, so, uh-

Joe Rogan 1:06:02 What do we got, Jamie? Anything?

Narrator 1:06:04 Uh, that's not... I don't think that list is super prevalent, so I'm trying to find it, 'cause it's just bringing up a lot of like, these coal plants are contaminators.

Joe Rogan 1:06:14 Right. Is there a-

Narrator 1:06:15 It's like area-

Joe Rogan 1:06:16 ... uh, area in, uh, North America most polluted by coal?

Narrator 1:06:19 I was also gonna say, uh, the way I Googled it, it's probably gonna give me a small city. I Googled "US city most coal pollution," but like, that's not... You know, they're not in-

Joe Rogan 1:06:26 Right.

Narrator 1:06:26 ... giant cities.

Joe Rogan 1:06:27 But even that small cities, it might be enough to, you know, kill thousands of people. What, uh, what do we have for... Is it giving you a list?

Narrator 1:06:35 It has a place in Indiana.

Joe Rogan 1:06:37 What's that called?

Narrator 1:06:39 Hm. (clears throat) This story was written in Evansville, but I think it's just outside of that.

Joe Rogan 1:06:45 Evansville? I know somebody from Evansville. Um.

Andrew Dessler 1:06:48 I was like go... Can you go to slide 50? This will blow your mind.

Narrator 1:06:50 It says here there's seven coal plants within 30 miles of this spot.

Joe Rogan 1:06:53 Oh, Jesus.

Andrew Dessler 1:06:54 Yeah, you do not want to live there.

Joe Rogan 1:06:55 Holy shit. G- See what that sky looks like.

Narrator 1:06:57 (laughs)

Joe Rogan 1:06:58 Google, uh, Evansville.

Narrator 1:07:00 There's a video of it.

Joe Rogan 1:07:00 Who the fuck do I kn- I know someone from Evansville.

Narrator 1:07:03 It's like, I don't know what part of this video this is gonna be.

Joe Rogan 1:07:04 Whoa! That is nasty. Go back to that again. Go back to the beginning again. Give me some volume on this. Let me hear what they're saying. (instrumental music plays)

Narrator 1:07:16 Southwest Indiana has some of the worst air in the country. People are suffering there.

1:07:21 I think the air quality stinks. You can feel your chest on, uh, a daily basis, how difficult it is to breathe. There was a fine dusting of ash. It was all over the, uh, kids play set.

Andrew Dessler 1:07:36 These streets would be just black with coal. All the way up through the courthouse square would be covered with coal dust.

Narrator 1:07:42 It's the sacrifice zone. Uh, those folks have been blistered (laughs) with, uh, particulate matter, uh, uh, NOx and SOx and acid rain, uh, for decades.

1:07:51 There's an inherent conflict between fossil fuel industries and public health and the environment. We won't let our planet die. Clean coal or dirty oil.

Joe Rogan 1:08:01 Our future generations rely on our protests here today.

Narrator 1:08:06 Shut down the coal plants.

1:08:07 Bitch, I aren't going to let anybody tear down our lives in Eastern Kentucky.

1:08:14 I think these conflicts aren't going away anytime soon.

1:08:22 Keep watching.

Joe Rogan 1:08:23 What is this documentary?

Narrator 1:08:24 That was it. A super polluter.

Joe Rogan 1:08:25 It's called sup- Is it called Super P- America's Super Polluters? That's horrible. When you just look at the sky from there. So these poor people that live in this area. It say... Scroll up so I can read that, please. No, no, em- I'm sorry, down. Um, uh, Evansville, Indiana. See, "To see one of the country's largest coal-fired power plants, head northwest from the Ohi- Ohi- this Ohio River city on east, because there's another in the region. In fact, nearly every direction you go will take you to a coal plant, seven within 30 miles. Collectively, they pump out millions of pounds of toxic air pollution. They throw off greenhouse gases on par with Hong Kong or Sweden. Industrial air pollution, bad for people's health, bad for the planet, is strikingly concentrated in America among a small number of facilities, like those in the Southwest, in southwest Indiana, according to a nine-month Center for Public Integrity investigation." Wow, this is horrible.

Narrator 1:09:24 It-

Joe Rogan 1:09:24 Look at what this says here. "Merged two federal data sets to create an unprecedented picture of air emissions. They found that a third of the toxic air releases in 2014 from power plants, factories, and other facilities came from just 100 complexes out of more than 20,000 reported to the US Environmental Protection Agency." So how does the EPA allow those plants to stay open? I mean, if, if you're looking at what these people are saying, where they've got a fine dust of mist over their child's play sets and the streets would be black with coal. Like, how is that possible? How are they allowing that?

Andrew Dessler 1:09:58 I mean, have you seen our political system? Um-

Joe Rogan 1:10:01 I have.

Andrew Dessler 1:10:01 Yeah, yeah. (laughs) I mean, uh, y- we have ... A lot of our politicians are essentially wholly owned subsidiaries of ExxonMobil and the ... And, you know, they do what's in the best interest of fossil fuel. Um, let me show you a s- I have a good slide that shows that. Can you go to 48? And just, I mean, just ... In Texas, um, there are two bills. Um, one bill, uh, you know, this is the state of freedom where people should be allowed to do what they want to do. Well, some, some co- uh, communities have the audacity to say, "We don't want any drilling in our city limits." And of course, the Texas State Government stepped in and said, "Oh no, you cannot rule your own life. We rule your life for you." And this is-

Joe Rogan 1:10:45 This is a fracking bill, right?

Andrew Dessler 1:10:47 That's right. But I mean, it's really a bi- a