EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,316 words- 0:00 – 3:10
Monkeypox panic, naming controversies, and media priorities
- NANarrator
(drumming music) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out. The Joe Rogan Experience.
- JRJoe Rogan
Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day. (rock music) So, Mike, how fucked are we?
- MBMike Baker
Oh, um, well ...
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Let's say, let's say we're fucked. Um, (sighs) yeah. I mean, it depends on where you wanna start. There's, there's so many interesting things, right? I, I, and I will say, right off the bat, I didn't, I didn't have, uh, monkeypox, uh, on my bingo card, um. I didn't-
- JRJoe Rogan
It doesn't seem-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... to be that big of an issue. Even when people get it, they don't die, they just get blisters and then it heals up and then they're good.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, and then they're fine. And it-
- JRJoe Rogan
It's not good.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) But it's not, it's not good.
- JRJoe Rogan
And it's also could be avoided if you have, don't have a lot of unprotected gay sex.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It seems-
- MBMike Baker
Unfortunately, I, I said the other, uh, what? A month ago, I made the mistake of saying that, "Just don't, don't, don't have a lot of unprotected random sex, uh, at a rave or don't fuck monkeys." And apparently, people took offense at that.
- JRJoe Rogan
I don't think anybody's fucking monkeys. So-
- MBMike Baker
So when-
- JRJoe Rogan
They probably are. There's probably like one guy out there.
- MBMike Baker
There was one guy. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
But I don't think that's what's causing it. I think it's just-
- MBMike Baker
Patient Zero.
- JRJoe Rogan
That's just the name of it, right? It's-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, it is, yeah. But to tell you what kind of world we live in, now what they wanna do is change the name because they think-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... the name is a, is what?
- JRJoe Rogan
It's offensive to gay people in some s- strange way. B- they wanna call it like a number or like, you know, ATX124.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Some nonsense. Just it's already monkeypox.
- MBMike Baker
It's monkeypox. Everybody's gonna notice monkeyp- remember when it was the, uh, when COVID was the Wuhan flu-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- 3:10 – 7:26
Pelosi’s Taiwan trip: signals, leaks, and why China always knows
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, you probably would. You probably, you probably would. Uh, but yeah, I didn't, I didn't see monkeypox and, and we got ... but you're right, we got other things to deal with. We got, uh, China's lobbing missiles over Taiwan.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, that was wild. So that would've, that's one of the things that I wanted to talk to you about. Like, why the fuck would Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan and then go to the DMZ? Like, it's ... are they trying to kill her?
- MBMike Baker
Well-
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, what? (laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, I know ... it's ... I, I think what caught a lot of people by surprise was just how public the trip became, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, it was obviously-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... a press stunt.
- MBMike Baker
It ... well, yes, it ... although there was this, this one, we don't know who leaked it. We're not sure, you know what I mean? From her office and, and from other places, we don't know who really started talking about this. Uh, because there have been a number of delegations obviously going back and forth. We just had another one in, in Taiwan, uh, got almost no press.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
Um, but it really doesn't matter who would leak it, because as soon as Pelosi's staff decided they're gonna start talking to their, their Taiwanese counterparts about arranging a trip like this, from that, that very first conversation, uh, the Chinese intel already knows about it, right? They've-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... they've picked up on it. So they're already aware. But anyway, so whether the Chinese regime decided to leak it and make a big issue of it because they're, they're, they're getting very surety about Taiwan at this point, um, it- it's, it's anybody's guess. But I think once it became a public issue and a spectacle, she had to go. She couldn't, she couldn't back down.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
So, so that was a inevitable. Uh, and, you know, did it accomplish much? Eh, you know, it's, it's fine, you know? We've got a obligation. Uh, we got the one China policy and we've got the, you know, unofficial recognition of Taiwan. And I don't think anybody in any administration going back to the beginning of that policy ever really understood what it all means. It's very complicated. It's messy. Everybody's preferred, every administration preferred not to talk about it really, because it's, it's kinda like the Middle East, nobody ever thinks it's gonna sort itself out properly. So, but, you know, to ... I never thought I'd say this, to Pelosi's credit, she's, she's been hanging in there as a supporter of Taiwan for, you know, most of her time. And whether that's because she's making (laughs) a lot of cash over there on deals, I don't know.
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, she brought over her son-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... who is in the mining business.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) Yeah, she brought ... would've brought her husband, but he was busy with that DUI charge. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Which is not a funny thing, it's, it's, you, you know, hopefully he gets help.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) Anyway, (laughs) I don't know where I'm going with that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
Sympathy for Paul Pelosi.
- JRJoe Rogan
No sympathy.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's, uh, I mean, I guess they released a video that showed how fucked up he was, which, you know, people were very concerned with him getting released. Like, they just kinda dropped the case, and now so apparently it's back on again.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, yeah. It's hard to believe that there could be, you know, two standards of justice in this court. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Crazy.
- 7:26 – 10:00
Taiwan endgame: accelerated timelines and the U.S. dilemma
- MBMike Baker
Taiwan's coming back. You know? (laughs) . It's gonna be part of China, um, and there is no two ways about it. But now, people are talking about, "Well, that could be four years from now." They've accelerated the timetable, and that's causing a lot of concern. There's been a very big buildup of the Chinese military, obviously, and we've, we've talked a little bit about that in the past. But, um, also their just, their aggressive behavior. So as their military's been growing, so has their sort of willingness to be aggressive about it, and to, and to put themselves out there, which didn't used to be the case. In part, because I don't think they felt emboldened enough yet, due to the strength of their navy in particular. They've got the largest navy in the world. So, you know, that's, there's, there's ... It, it's not ... They're not just doing it to do it. Right? There's a reason for it. And the reason for it, is to prepare for the eventual day when they decide the time is right to bring Taiwan back into the fold. And that's gonna be a very messy day from our perspective, because, uh, you know, uh, what are we gonna do about it? Are we gonna... Are we going to war with China to defend Taiwan?
- JRJoe Rogan
What are the two perspectives? Is there one perspective where, where some advisors are saying, "We have to let it happen to avoid the inevitable mass bloodshed, because it's going to happen no matter what"?
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
And then the other perspective is, "If we let them do that, we're sending the worst message possible, so we need to defeat this at all costs."
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. There's, there's basically ... Y- yeah. That's very eloquent actually, that you've defined the two tracks, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
There's, there's really nothing in between. There's no middle ground between.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
Although you could argue, and, and this is what China's been watching also, is what's been happening in Russia and Ukraine, right? Um, so the idea that we've drawn a red line, we're not putting boots on the ground, right? But we're gonna do everything, you know, up to that to help support the Ukraine in their efforts against Russia. Uh, China looks at that and they think, "Okay, is that, is that where this would go?" You know, once we, if we send our navy across the strait there, and, and, uh, you know, start dropping troops on the island, you know, w- where, where is the US in all of this? And they have to base their, their strategy, their, their forward planning on, on sort of the knowns, right? And one of the knowns is how we're dealing with Ukraine. We do not want to get into a shooting war with Russia. Well, China's gonna have to look at that and go, "Well, we assume they definitely don't want to get into a shooting war with us." Right? So then they just, they ... That's how they start to calculate what that strategy looks like, and what the potential
- 10:00 – 15:29
Russia–Ukraine intelligence lessons and NATO provocation debate
- MBMike Baker
then risks and damage could be from being sanctioned further, um, in certain areas. Uh, in having, uh, arms resupplied to Taiwan during the course of an invasion, essentially. So, there's, there's a lot that goes into it. But I mean, look, it's interesting because we, we miscalculated the, the Russia situation, right? We, we figured out that Russia was building up to an invasion, but just about everybody said, "Yeah, it'll take them three or four days, and they'll roll into Kyiv and it'll be over." So we got that pretty wrong. So now we have to worry about how good are our estimates of, of, you know, the Chinese PLA, the People's Liberation Army, and their capabilities and the, and the navy, and how, how good are they? And then we have to worry about Taiwan and say, "How ... What's Taiwan's will to fight look like?" It doesn't look like the Ukrainians. It's, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Phew.
- MBMike Baker
... two different cultures. So well, that was a statement of the obvious, wasn't it? (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. But it's-
- MBMike Baker
Sorry. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
It's a perilous time.
- MBMike Baker
Oh, God. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's very disturbing when you're, you're sitting here, you feel helpless, you're reading the news and you're trying to pay attention to what's going on, and you're like, "Jesus, how does this end well?" Like, what's the best case scenario?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Well, look, we thought ... 'Cause again, we didn't have, we didn't have... If, going back to using Russia as a, as a, as a case study, you know, and obviously that war is going on and it's horrific and, you know, there's a lot of tragedy there. But using it as a case study for what could happen in China, right, and the potential there, w- we didn't get Putin's plans and intentions right at all. Right? We didn't, you know ... Once this thing dragged on beyond what he expected, then, you know, there was a lot of speculation, "Okay, maybe this is a negotiated settlement." You know? So what does that look like? And, but they've just come out, the defense minister and others have just come out and said, "There's no negotiation to be done here. We don't view this as a, as a way to ... And we're not gonna settle this through negotiation." They were very clear, they made a very clear statement. So they're in it apparently to, uh, win. But what does that mean? Are they just, are they gonna be happy securing that, that eastern side of the country and the south, and does that mean they want to take Odessa? I mean, uh, you know, the further beyond into Odessa and ... You know, no one ... Again, nobody really knows. And we could talk about how, you know-What does that mean? Was that an intelligence failure? Was it, was it just because we were focused elsewhere? We've been spending 20 plus years on the Middle East, counter-terrorism. And so does that mean that we were unable to, because we didn't have the resources focused on the area to assess what was going to happen, uh, with a land war in Europe? And so what does that mean in terms of our ability to assess what the Chinese regime's gonna do and what their military capabilities are? Uh, it's a, it is a big concern. But how it ends, again, that's all speculation. But it's, it's gonna be messy either way.
- JRJoe Rogan
Now, what do you make of the people that say that this is provoked by NATO constantly pushing the boundaries and pushing, uh, weapons up to the border of Russia?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, I get the, I get that argument. I mean, Putin has been very clear. And one thing I don't think we, we ever do very well is we don't really take despots or dictators at their word, right? So when they say something, we tend to ... It's kinda like with Xi and China, right? He's, he's a dictator. They're going into a, they're going to into a Congress soon, uh, where he'll probably get a third term. They've never had that happen there. So he's cementing himself as being there forever. But we've always, I guess my point is, we've never really been good at just saying, "Okay, he's, that's what they're saying, so maybe we should factor that into our analysis as to what could happen." And Putin was clear for all these years saying, "Uh, you know, I wanna rebuild the Soviet Union in some fashion." Right? And, and the collapse of the Soviet Union, including losing Ukraine, and Ukraine is, they're coming up on their Independence Day. Um, they, what is that? The 24th of August is, is Ukraine Independence Day. That's tomorrow. And they became independent in '91, uh, got out from the, the Soviet Union. Uh, so Putin's been very upfront about how he wants to rebuild the Soviet Union in some capacity. So yes, I get the argument that says if we've been pushing NATO, uh, for years, right? And trying to strengthen NATO and, and trying to get them to pay their fair share and trying to do all these things to bolster NATO, particularly along the border with Russia, he's gonna look at that as an existential threat in a way, right? And we should, we should have probably, uh, paid more attention to that. But I, you know, I think, you know, that's, it's, it's, that's a little bit too late for Putin. But I think what we should do is, is use that again and look at what Xi's been saying, and look at what they say during their, their, you know, their Congresses. Look at their five-year plans and, you know, be a little bit more, um, aware that he probably means what he says. So when they talk about Taiwan, they mean that. When they talk about, you know, getting to the top of the food chain, uh, in a variety of areas, whether it's pharmaceuticals, technology, uh, telecommunications, shipping, oil and gas, that's what they're going to do, which is why they've been so intent over the years, uh, to hoover up or steal every bit of intellectual property, um, and intelligence as they can. Because that's how they're meeting those goals.
- 15:29 – 16:49
China’s economic espionage and farmland/asset acquisition concerns
- JRJoe Rogan
There's also some talk about them buying US farmland. Uh-
- MBMike Baker
Oh, yeah. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Someone just brought this up to me the other day that they just bought an enormous farm somewhere in the middle of America, and their number one priority is feeding China.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, yeah. Um, they've been doing all sorts of, uh, we, we could, we could literally, we could, we could literally sit here-
- JRJoe Rogan
'Cause that's like-
- MBMike Baker
... all day long talking about what they've been up to. Um, but, but you're right. Um, the Bureau, Bureau had a great report, um, not that long ago. Um, they, it was culmination of a years of investigation. And one of the interesting things that they were doing was looking at the financial side of things. Uh, rather than kind of thinking of individual, uh, counterintelligence operations, they started looking at Chinese companies, whether they were state owned or whether they were just, you know, theoretically private, but they had two or three cutouts between them and the state. And they were looking at their deals and they were saying, "Well, why would they do this?" And, and if it's a, if it's a private company that's out there to make money and to become successful or be successful, to grow, why would they be making deals that seem not profitable? What, what's the point of that exercise? And so aside from just acquiring assets, and China's
- 16:49 – 25:30
Huawei, rural telecom gear, and the ICBM corridor vulnerability
- MBMike Baker
o- over the years has acquired a massive amount of, of property and other assets here in the US and around the world, is the idea that ... Uh, it's a very clever part of their investigation from a Bureau perspective, is to say, all right, let's look at a Chinese company, uh, like ZTE or Huawei, and let's try to understand why would they possibly be, um, giving away their products basically at dirt cheap prices. Uh, why would they be interested in, in, in acquiring land in a particular area? Why would they want to work with a particular regional telecoms provider here in the US? And when you do that, their activity becomes pretty clear. Even to people who are skeptics, it becomes pretty obvious that ... I mean, look, just Huawei alone, they've (laughs) over the years, I mean, going back to 2000 and before that, Huawei is as a, as a telecoms company started in '87, and they're now the largest, uh, producer of telecoms gear in the world. I mean, they do all the plumbing, right? They do the antennas, they do the routers, they do the servers. They ... You look at a cell tower now anywhere in the Midwest or out no-, uh, out west, uh, anywhere, and it's likely got Huawei or ZTE or other Chinese components on that cell tower. And one of the reports that the Bureau came out with, um, after a lengthy, uh, investigation is fascinating. And, um, I, uh, I'm pretty sure you've s- ... Yeah, you've seen this report that, that did the, that you look at the, um, I-25 corridor.It goes up, uh, uh, Wyoming, uh, Colorado, that area, along the border of Nebraska. They did a deal with a, a regional telecoms provider out there, Veiro, I think it was. And they now have their, over the years, they've put their equipment, Huawei has, onto these cell towers that go up and down this corridor. Well, the other thing that's up and down this corridor are a variety of military bases, and an enormous number of ICBM sites for our, (laughs) our nuke program, right? So, the idea that China was just m-... you know, willingly giving, at vastly discounted prices, uh, their gear to a regional provider in the, in, (laughs) in part of the US where we have an enormous number of ICBM sites. I don't know. It could be a coincidence.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
But I, it's, it's, it's, it's a perfect example of what they do and, and how they're willing to, to invest state resources, and how smart they are at, at long-term targeting, and understanding, "I want to know about this. That's where the information is. I'm gonna get access to it, and I don't care whether it takes me 10, 20, 30 years."
- JRJoe Rogan
So we're having this conversation and you're explaining this to me. I would imagine that if I was a person in, in a position of power and government, I would want to stop this from happening. So how did it ever happen?
- MBMike Baker
Um, well, it, uh, i- i- it wasn't really noticed. It wasn't. Nobody-
- JRJoe Rogan
What?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, it wasn't. I mean, it... It's been a thing for a handful of years. When you think about it, if you think about Huawei has been doing this for, um... I mean, look, the... we could talk about what they did up in Canada too, to, uh, one of the world's biggest companies up in Canada in telecoms, um, at roughly the same time, but anyway. Uh, a couple of years ago, what are we? We're in 2022 now. So a couple of years ago, when they released this information, when they finished their investigation and they looked and they said, "This is bullshit," right? We've got... Because one of the things about this equipment that's sitting on these cell towers is people will say, "Well, who cares? It's telecoms, you know, it's, it's my mobile phone. I don't care if the Chinese, you know, regime listens into my mobile phone." Well, the PLA's Third Department and their First Technical Reconnaissance Bureau and other parts of the Chinese machine that, that hoovers up all this information that's related to our national security interests, they're not just going after (laughs) you know, commercial cellphone signals. This part of this investigation was to break down this equipment and try to understand, okay, wait a minute, could this be going after the DoD spectrum, the, the, uh, bandwidth that the military would use? And if so, what does that mean? Uh, could they intercept communications? Yes, according to the investigation. And could they interfere with our communication? So not just hoover up data packets that are going across this, but also i-... imagine if we're trying to send communications, things get really hot, they go after Taiwan, suddenly we're going on high alert. They could, they could either intercept or, um, or, uh, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Block?
- MBMike Baker
Block, jam. I'm having a, uh, senior moment. Um, communications trying to get f- through on those, uh, capabilities. And so, it's a big, it's a big deal, um, but once it, once the investigation came out, then people did start to pay attention. But this is how the, the, how slow the US government can be. Um, in, uh, in nineteen, uh, 2019 and 2020, basically what happened was, to, uh, to oversimplify this, was once that it became clear what was going on and what, what the Chinese regime was doing, uh, using Chinese telecoms providers, um, to do this. The US government said, "Okay, that's it. We gotta take all this gear off these cell towers," right? These are regional providers, right? That, in these areas, 'cause they... What the Chinese were very smart about was looking at our military bases, seeing how many of them were out in the rural parts of America, identifying who the regional providers are and saying, "We can sell you this gear for nothing. How about that?"
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
And over the years, the regional providers would be like, "Great. Fine." Because they're not thinking. You got some guy running some regional telecoms company, he's not a, a counterintelligence specialist.
- JRJoe Rogan
He's just working on his bottom line.
- MBMike Baker
He's just working on his bottom line. He said, "This is a great deal." So they load up all these towers. So anyway, the US government said, "You gotta take all this gear off, right? You gotta remove all this shit (laughs) and we've got to replace it with, with trusted gear." And, and by the way, Huawei is on a trade list, um, as is ZTE and others, uh, at this point, um, so we can't... Going forward, uh, companies aren't en-... using their gear. But you've got all this stuff sitting up there anyway, right? And every time you need to do an update, right, uh, one of the weaknesses on some of this gear is you gotta, you know, uh, basically hit it with new software, with an update. And anytime you do that, that's a pathway perhaps for them to do something else. And so they said, "Take all this gear off. We're going to allocate, as US government, we're gonna allocate, uh, just shy of $2 billion to do this." And, uh, none of the gear has moved. This was 2020. Two years later, none of the gear has been moved because all the companies, they said, "Okay, shit, we'll make a list of all the stuff that's gotta come off of there," and they did, and you're talking about, you know, 20 some odd thousand pieces of equipment that need to be pulled off of cell towers that, you know, are compromising or potentially compromising, uh, US national interests. And they said, "Well, we can't do this for $1.9 billion. It's gonna cost us twice that at least, which means it'll cost us probably three times that." And so nothing's been done. None of the gear has been removed. Um, now the US government is saying, "Well, okay, maybe we can partially reimburse you." Well, you're talking about companies that, as you point out, are trying to, you know, improve their bottom line, they're trying to make money, so they're gonna get partially reimbursed for taking this gear off.... right? Because the US government is, is so slow in, in... The Commerce Department started an investigation in 2021. They still haven't finished it, about the same issue. So, I don't want to sound cynical, but A: I'm- I'm- I'm very happy that the bureau, through some very good investigative, you know, efforts, uh, has highlighted this and it's important to be talking about this. Thank God it's- it's- they're- we're getting better at talking about it. But nothing's been done and it, so the same problem exists. So, it's kind of like when you go in and you talk... I remember 15 years ago, I would go in, I would give a talk on Chinese espionage. You know, that's how long I've been kicking this horse in the ass. And people would just roll their eyes. And it still kind of happens, because they'll look and they'll go, "Ah, you- you know, yeah, that's bullshit. You're being xenophobic." Or, "Well, we do it too." That's always a- my- one of my favorite arguments.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
People say, "Well, the US does it too." And (laughs) like, what the fuck? What kind of argument is that, right? So, it's- it's- it's-
- JRJoe Rogan
So, let 'em?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
So, just let 'em spy?
- 25:30 – 39:12
Nortel case study: how long-term theft can crush a Western champion
- MBMike Baker
Just let 'em. Yeah, it'll be fine. You know, we'll just all do it. And, uh, so anyway, I... That- that's- that's the, that's one of the more interesting, uh, parts of this. But I mean, they're just... The- the shit that they're doing. They did the same thing up in- in, uh, Canada back in- in- in 2000. They infiltrated a company called, uh, Nor- Nortel. And Nortel was one of the largest companies in the world. Super successful, right? Based out of, I forget where. Ottawa, maybe, in Canada. And, uh, Nortel went bankrupt, in part because they had, you know, they had some bullshit, uh, business decisions made. But in part because Huawei and- and others, uh, out of China just started hoovering up and stealing all their shit. Getting everything. I mean, look, this- this problem... I- I know I- I sound like I'm rambling, but you could go back 10 years ago, and in one estimate, a- a legit estimate of the cost to us, right? From economic espionage and the theft of intellectual property, by not just China, but Russia, Iran, North Korea, any bad actor. The theft, the cost of that in one year, at that time, 10 years ago, was $500 billion-
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
... in terms of blueprints and- and technical information and the... And- and- and then you- then you factor in lost jobs, right? Because when they're stealing information to advance themselves, what they're also doing is kicking us in the ass and we're losing jobs, right? And we're losing... And companies are shutting down or- or not making money. So, it's a, it's- it's a problem. I know I bang on about it a lot, but...
- JRJoe Rogan
It seems like it's worth banging on about.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
This Nortel company. So, what did they steal from them?
- MBMike Baker
They took, uh, a lot of, uh, proprietary software. Uh, Nortel at the time was doing... They were doing all sorts of things that were- were groundbreaking, right? They were coming up with touch screen technology before Apple did, right? They were doing all sorts of things. And they, um... At a certain point, they just couldn't compete because all the- all the information about their plans and intentions for- for, uh, business operations, for, uh, bids, for everything, were now in the hands of, uh, Chinese state-owned or favored companies.
- JRJoe Rogan
And how were they doing this? Are they doing this through their routers and ser... What- what were they doing?
- MBMike Baker
They infiltrated a lot of... They- they- they basically malware that they laid onto their systems internally. Um, they also had some old school kind of help, right? There's a lot of layers to espionage, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
There's a lot of layers, particularly economic espionage. So, you know, we all like to think about the cyberist part of it now, and that's true. But, you know, Chinese in particular also rely on human, on human intelligence, right? So, co-optees or- or recruits that they can get. And they had, they had a number of very, um, very highly regarded and- and thought of, uh, engineers and developers and innovators and- and, uh, working within, uh, Nortel who were from China. And that's a prime target for Chinese intel, right? They'll- they'll always look to kind of play off of that connection to the motherland, whether it's first or second or third generation. So, they, uh, basically just started, Nortel just started being unable to compete because they were just... And at the same time, oddly enough, you know, Huawei was doing better and better and better. And, you know, as Nortel was getting crushed, Huawei was building up their, uh, you know, uh, innovation centers, hiring more engineers, including a bunch from Nortel, uh, interestingly. So, I guess the- the- the point to the- the story there is, it's been going on a- a long damn time.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
And we- we tend to think of it as, like, just something when... I mean, the previous administration, Trump administration, you know, they- they talked a lot about China, China, China. And that's a good thing, right? The more we talk about this... It's not going to change their behavior, but if nothing else, maybe it makes businesses, companies more aware. I think one thing that needs to happen is, is that, uh, the government has to do a better job, right? Of explaining the case. Because again, I've seen this for years now where people just kind of go, "Uh, yeah. Okay, fine. You're talking about Chinese espionage and they're stealing our information and uh..." They- they don't really know what it means necessarily, or they just don't imagine it's that big a deal. So... Or they don't see the evidence, and I guess maybe that's part of the biggest problem, is because of what it is, because you gather some of this informa- it- you can't talk about sources and methods or whatever. You don't just throw everything out there on the table and say, "Look, here's the evidence that Huawei or, um, or the Third Department of the PLA or whoever is- is doing all this activity, and this is what it's costing us, and this is how we know." You can't do that in intelligence operations. But I think we need to make... We need to figure out a way to make an exception to that in this case, because...... that's what will get people on side, right? That's what'll get people to be believers in all this, is if you give them more evidence. Right? It's like UFOs. You know?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
If, if somebody actually talked about it, gave you a piece of evidence, and you go, "Okay, yeah, maybe it is so." But it's just ... I- i- it's, it's a, it's a tough line to walk. The Bureau's getting better at it, but, um, I think we need to be more transparent in explaining how we know some of these things, to the degree that we can. And then there will be limitations. But we don't do enough of it. But the more we talk about it, again, it's not gonna change the Chinese regime's behavior, 'cause this is how they envision, and it's worked so far, getting to the top of the food chain. But we gotta do something.
- JRJoe Rogan
So, has there been a company in the United States that's been infiltrated the way Nortel was?
- MBMike Baker
Oh, sure. I mean, uh, w- whether you're talking about ... Uh, well not t- ... I mean-
- JRJoe Rogan
T-
- MBMike Baker
Nortel was an interesting case, because it, it ... Now it's bankrupt. Interesting enough, it went into bankruptcy. They sold all their gear as part of an effort to raise funds, right? So they sold all this gear. A lot of it, who knows?
- JRJoe Rogan
Filled with malware.
- MBMike Baker
Filled with malware. Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's gonna go to some other company.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Hey.
- JRJoe Rogan
"Hey, we got a deal."
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Terrific. Look at this.
- JRJoe Rogan
And then all of a sudden-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
... China just picks up a new signal.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) So-
- JRJoe Rogan
"Oh, look."
- 39:12 – 52:36
EVs, battery minerals, and China’s grip on processing supply chains
- MBMike Baker
I mean, terrorism. Terrorists have used that against for years and years and years and years, right? That's the fact that we have a free and open society, and we, and we relish it. And we should, right? That's a great thing. But people who don't have our interests at heart are gonna take advantage of that at some point, and, and they have over the years. So, I, I think with, you know, I mean, you look at, uh, look at, look at China and, you know, something simple such as electric vehicles, right? I, by the way, (laughs) I, I, I walked into a rental car place the other day, uh, a couple weeks ago. And the guy said ... I, I'd just rented some bog standard sedan, 'cause I was only there for like two days. The guy says, uh, "Hey, I can give you a deal on a Tesla." Well, I've never driven a Tesla before, so I thought, "Okay, I'll ... I guess." So it was a simple whatever it was, a Model 3, I guess they call it. So, he says, "Here, here you go." And, uh, gave me the little thingy, the, you know, little card or whatever it is, said to go out and he says, "It's parked out there in space 407." So, I walk out there and I realize as I'm standing there with my little roll-aboard bag that I don't know how to get into this car, right? I don't know how to unlock it. And so I'm looking and I'm walking around it and I'm trying to figure this out and I've got the little card, and then I look inside and that big screen in there lights up and it says, "Tap, you know, the, the car." (taps center console) So, (laughs) like a fucking moron, I'm out there tapping the car with this card, right? I can't figure out, 'cause I don't know that it's that little part by the window, right? With the little, this little-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... thing there. Uh, like I was ... I'm being very technical. So, I stand out there for about 10 minutes trying to open the car, and I can't. So I go back into the little center there and I said, um, "I don't know how to do this." So the guy walks out with me and he, he, uh, shows me how to open it. I get, I get in the car, he walks away. Now I don't know how to start the fucker. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
So, I had to, I sat in the car in this, in this rental car center and I Googled, "How to start a Tesla." And had to watch a little video, right? Like an idiot. And my takeaway, I, long story short, might, now that I've already made it long, but my takeaway from driving the Tesla for two days was, I think if you're a technology person, I think it's great. You must, yeah, people love it. I'm, I'm not, clearly. But to me it was, it wa- there was no driving experience, right? There's no sound, there's no feel. It was like driving a golf cart. And so, and a- I'm not saying, you know, I'm against electric vehicles, but ... Oh, I know where I wanna go with this one.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
But the, the, the Chinese, when you think about it, they control 85, 90% of the processing of minerals, right? That go into an electric vehicle battery. And so when you think about that, it, it's not that they have all those in there, in, in, within China, but they control the processing of it because they're smart, and because they looked at this years ago. And because part of their five-year plan at a certain point was, we're gonna advance the ball in green technology. That's where we're gonna focus. Well, what does that mean? That means we're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna lock this down, and we're also gonna steal information related to this, but we're gonna, we're gonna do everything we can to, to get ourselves further up that chain. So, whether you're talking about lithium or cobalt or copper or whatever in that battery, you know, we are way behind the curve. We got a real problem, so we talk, we imagine somehow we're gonna develop, you know, the, this, this, this green world where we're all driving electric vehicles. And the reality is, China has already set themselves up in a very strong way to kind of dominate that, that industry. It's, it's, it's fascinating. I like it because it, it shows, again, it shows w-... the, the targeting aspects of intelligence and, and, and the thought process that goes into gathering information, developing a strategy, working towards prioritizing your collection, all these things. But, um, yeah. Anyway, I wasn't ... And I'm not saying I wasn't a fan of Tesla. I, I, I like, you know, Musk and the company and all that, but I just, I like to hear a noise when I'm driving. That's just me.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. Well, I have cars that make a noise. (laughs) That's-
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
But I drove the Tesla today.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's a fucking rocket ship.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's the craziest car I've ever driven in my life.
- MBMike Baker
What kind of ... Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
The Model S Plaid.
- MBMike Baker
Okay. Okay.
- JRJoe Rogan
It goes 0 to 60 in 1.9 seconds.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's the acceleration is impossible. It doesn't even make sense. Like, it, it seems like you're in another time period. Like, you're around these things, they're all horses.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
And you're in a fucking Corvette just ... I mean, it's, it doesn't even make sense how fast it is.
- MBMike Baker
I saw it.
- JRJoe Rogan
And also how quiet it is.
- MBMike Baker
The quiet part bothered me. Maybe that was what it was.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
I just wasn't ... You know, what do I know? But, uh, you know, it's, it's, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Listen to music.
- NANarrator
Yeah. Yeah, I could've done that. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
They, they make a new, uh, Challenger. They just started, uh, releasing the, uh, promos on it, and it's a Challenger ... Look at Jamie on the fucking road.
- 52:36 – 1:04:17
CHIPS Act, energy policy tradeoffs, and climate messaging as politics
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. I think it's a ... it's an interesting idea. I, I'm nowhere near smart enough to ponder it beyond saying it's an interesting idea. But, uh, yeah, I, I do think that ... I mean, again, I'll wrap up the, uh ... You know, it's The, uh, Bash China Hour. But I do think that, when we're talking about where, where we're 5 to 10 years from now, and, you know, the, the US government just passed this CHIPS and Science Act because we're aware of the fact that we don't produce enough semiconductors, enough chips here in-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... the, in the, in the States, most of it being done over in Taiwan, right? I mean, 90%, basically, of the sophisticated semiconductor, you know, uh, product is produced in Taiwan. And so, yeah, okay, fine, pass the CHIPS and Science Act, invest some more money in, in doing that here. I just don't know that we're gonna be able to do anything about the, about the minerals required for the EV part, because I just don't see, once people realize that it means you're gonna start digging up more earth, right? In, in these-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... you know, not good-looking mining operations, I don't know that they're gonna be on board with that. So, uh, I'm not sure where that goes in terms of US independence in that industry. But there's, there's a lot of things we, you know, fine, let's invest in. But I just think that that idea that somehow we're going to shut down fossil fuels in the, in the very near short term in favor of this ... No, how about we continue with the fossil fuels that we have? You know, natural gas, great. We should be doing more of that. Uh, but we can do these other things as well. We can pursue all these other things at the same time. But it's, it's we, we are, we're always in this wer- weird argument where it's like, it's a- it's all this or it's all that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
And just, no, just multitask and, and maybe we'll, eventually we'll get to that green future that everybody's banging on about.
- JRJoe Rogan
I think people need to see the horrific consequences of mining. Uh, I just don't think-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... they quite understand it. And this is coming from someone who has an electric car, who loves it.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
I get it. But it's just, what you're talking about is not clean at all. And we're, we're talking about doing this for every car in the country? I, and I don't even believe we even have enough minerals.... to, to-
- MBMike Baker
Right. Got it.
- JRJoe Rogan
... power X amount of hundreds of millions of cars.
- MBMike Baker
No, I, I don't know what the natu- uh, what the, uh, mineral reserves are now around the world. Um, you know, in terms of rare earth minerals, China's hit the jackpot, right? In terms of just where they're located.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
So, they've got... When it, when it's rare earth minerals. But, I mean, you, you know, you can't... You don't put cobalt and lithium and copper in th- in th- that category. But again, they've got the, the hands on the, the processing. But it's... Uh, yeah. It, it is, it is fascinating. I just think that whether we're talking about their, their efforts to gather intelligence, whether we're talking about their build-up of their military, whether we're talking about, um, you know, sort of the, their focus. Um, I just think that, you know, there needs to be more of an awareness of where we are in relation to China and what that's going to look like in 5, 10, 15 years. And I don't know that we've... And I'll bang on about something else that's interesting. I- We spent so much time focused on the Middle East and counter-terrorism, that I think we legitimately degraded our ability to worry about other parts of the world, and Russia and China being the two key ones. Um, so I think we're, we're trying to re-calibrate, but that takes time. When you're talking about re-tooling your intelligence community to now move away from this idea that, uh, you know, it's all counter-terrorism all the time, and, you know, "We gotta get back to the, kinda the old school, uh, intel concerns." It takes time to r- to, to do that. It takes time to recruit new officers. It takes time to, to find those, those Mandarin speakers. It takes time to, to get the analysts who have all that experience. A lot of them have retired over the years, right? So, that's a s- that's, that... You know, that's, uh, you know, a ship you don't turn around in on a dime. So I think it's... You know, it, it's gonna be interesting where we go. But, uh, circling back, I mean, you look at, at, at Russia and I don't know where that's mess is gonna end up, but I think we better be paying real close attention to what it means for our abilities to f- better assess what's going to happen with China, uh, particularly vis-a-vis Taiwan. And I just said vis-a-vis. I can't believe that. I gotta write down, "Never say vis-a-vis again."
- JRJoe Rogan
Bzz.
- MBMike Baker
Vzz.
- JRJoe Rogan
We have to be... Uh, if they're doing that, they have to also be careful that they don't degrade the intelligence on foreign extremists and, and, and terrorists-
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
... and old school-
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
... th- the things that we've been worried about this whole time. It's not like you wanna ignore that.
- MBMike Baker
No. And I, and I think that, that late recent hit on Zawahiri, um, in, uh, Afghanistan, I think that shows that we can do that. We can, uh... You know, we can, we can multitask again. But, uh, you're right, you don't wanna take your eye off the ball. Um, I mean, we're all tired of terrorism, we're all tired of the war on terror, which I... You know, but the extremists aren't, right? They're still pretty energized, right? (laughs) They're still pretty interested in, you know, can we turn Afghanistan into a, a training ground again, uh, for our interests who attack the US and its allies? Yes, extremists are still very interested in doing that. So we have to stay focused in that arena, but we can't afford to put so much of our resource in that area. We've, we've gotta understand, uh, where our primary concerns are. And certainly top of that list... Look, it hasn't changed in years, right? I mean, you ask, you know, somebody in, in, in, uh, Washington DC within the military or intel community over all these years, "What are your top concerns?" And it's always gonna be China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. Um, and so China's always been up there, but the reality is we took our eye off the ball and we, we focused elsewhere, and that degraded our ability, I'd argue, to, to do what we need to do. And part of that is giving the White House, whatever administration's in charge, giving them the best intelligence you can. And to do that, you need the, the collection capabilities. And that's, that's the HUMINT and... You know, we do very well on, on technical collection, right? Nobody does it better than we do, I'd argue. But, um, but a, a lot of times your most important intelligence comes from a human, a, a source, right? And, and that's, that's, that's, that's tough to do. Um, and then you need, like I said, you need the analysts who are capable and experienced enough to put together something that makes sense and allows the US then to forward plan. But I guarantee you, um, you know, from... It's an accelerated timeline on Taiwan, and we better understand what that means. And I, I, I don't know that we, uh... I don't know that we're paying a lot of attention right now.
- JRJoe Rogan
What's the best case scenario? Like, how could this play out well?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, they don't do anything in our lifetime (sighs) and they-
- JRJoe Rogan
Ugh, ugh.
- MBMike Baker
... leave it to our kids to worry about. (laughs) 'Cause I don't know what else... Uh, you know, it... Look, they're... I think they're gonna do something. I don't think Xi's gonna step down until he's got Taiwan back in the, in the fold. I think that's, you know, something that he probably desperately wants to accomplish on his watch. So, how much more time does he have? Uh, you know, he's set himself up as, as, you know, uh, president for life basically, king for life. And so I, I think it's, um, it's, it's an inv- inevitable conflict that I don't know that we've really thought through. 'Cause we don't understand how they're capable of... The Chinese military is capable of integrating all their various elements. China hasn't been at war for a long time, right? In, in real terms. You know, we... You know, we saw, uh, Russia, you know, engage in Afghanistan, you know, few, couple decades ago or whatever. Um, we had a sense of what that was gonna look like. Um, we still got it wrong, the assessment. You know, we got it wrong. We got their logistics capabilities wrong, we got their communications capabilities wrong, we, we got it wrong about how they, uh... You know, what, what sort of information was being fed to Putin, um, and how he was basing his assessments. Uh, so there was a lot of mistakes that we're hopefully learning from.
- JRJoe Rogan
What, what did we get wrong?
- 1:04:17 – 1:43:59
IRS expansion debate: enforcement optics, who gets targeted, and tax-code complexity
- MBMike Baker
There's a, there's a lot of... (sighs) There's so many areas we should be investing money into, and instead of $80 billion into the IRS. (laughs) I don't... I just pulled that one out of my ass.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
But I just... (laughs) I just... I thought I was thinking about money that the US government invests, and I just remembered that they're pumping $80 billion into the IRS.
- JRJoe Rogan
87,000 new IRS agents.
- MBMike Baker
God.
- JRJoe Rogan
And, you know, and everybody who supports that thinks they're gonna go after those people that aren't paying their fair share, all those rich guys.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
But the problem is those rich guys have top shelf accountants that are making sure that all the Is are dotted and the Ts are crossed. It's middle class Americans that they're gonna go after. They're gonna go after-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... people that don't have the resources.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
They're gonna go after people that may have, uh, you know, fudged a little here and there, and they're gonna bring those folks down.
- MBMike Baker
Right. And I mean, and, and, and it's interesting because when they first rolled this out, um, much like a lot of things that the, the, the current administration does, and again, not that, not that, uh... you know, there's... they've done some good things, they've done some, some, you know, odd things. But, um, their messaging always seems to be off, right? So they're always kind of batting cleanup. They'll, they'll, they'll do something and the next thing you know, John Kirby or somebody's gotta roll out and explain, "That's not what we meant. This is what we meant." So when they rolled out this, this... the fact that there was $80 billion in there to, to, uh, uh, pump into the IRS and there's 87,000 new (laughs) agents and... Um, they had really no message, right? And so, immediately people were just losing their shit.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
And then, because the Democrats... when that happens, they are very good at then circling the wagons and coming up with a, a narrative, right? And disseminating that out and making sure that everybody pushes that same talking point. And then they stick to that talking point. So the talking point then became, after a few days of, of, uh, terrible, uh, optics on this, was, "Well, the IRS has been underfunded for, you know, years, decades. And because of that, we haven't been able to go after the billionaires, because we, we've... haven't been able to hire all those, you know, really clever agents who can do those sophisticated investigations of the billionaires. And so this is all about refunding the IRS because it's been underfunded. We're gonna improve the technology and we're going to be able to go after those billionaires finally because we'll have enough people." Uh, okay. Um, I'm not buying that. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Why do you think they did it? Why do you think they decided to ramp up and hire 87,000 new IRS agents to tone of... to tune rather of $80 billion?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Um, look, uh, because they wanna raise money. They've got, uh...
- JRJoe Rogan
But how much can they raise?
- MBMike Baker
Well, they're, they're claiming they're gonna get $200 billion over a period of time out of this increased effort.
- JRJoe Rogan
And-
- MBMike Baker
So they're gonna make money. Eventually the government will make money.
- JRJoe Rogan
From who, though?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, well, they argue nobody other than wealthy people. Just wealthy people. So yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
So wealthy people that have been cheating?
- MBMike Baker
Yes. That's their argument, is basically, "There's so much money sloshing around out there that the, the wealthy people haven't been paying their taxes and they've been, they've been cheating and hiding it, that we need, we need all these new agents because that's where the money is."
- JRJoe Rogan
Is there an argument there?
- MBMike Baker
Um-You know what? I, I... (sighs) Is there an argument that you could probably, uh, uh... Uh, I don't, you know what? That's a good question. I don't know.
- JRJoe Rogan
I mean, are there-
- MBMike Baker
Not, not, not being a, not being a wealthy person, I don't know. But, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
I mean, I'm ass-
Episode duration: 3:21:16
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Transcript of episode 5_IHM6HI0rs
