Joe Rogan Experience #2010 - Marc Andreessen

1. 0:00 – 15:00

   (drumbeats) Joe Rogan podcast,…

   1. NANarrator0:00

      (drumbeats) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.

   2. MAMarc Andreessen0:04

      The Joe Rogan Experience.

   3. JRJoe Rogan0:06

      Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day. (instrumental music) Good morning, Mark. Good to see you.

   4. MAMarc Andreessen0:13

      Good. Fantastic, thanks.

   5. JRJoe Rogan0:14

      You are, uh, in the middle of this AI, uh, discussion.

   6. MAMarc Andreessen0:18

      Yeah.

   7. JRJoe Rogan0:19

      You're, you're in, right in the heat of this thing.

   8. MAMarc Andreessen0:21

      Yeah.

   9. JRJoe Rogan0:21

      But I think you have a different perspective than a lot of people do.

   10. MAMarc Andreessen0:24

       Yep.

   11. JRJoe Rogan0:24

       A lot of people are terrified of AI.

   12. MAMarc Andreessen0:25

       Yep.

   13. JRJoe Rogan0:26

       Me included.

   14. MAMarc Andreessen0:26

       Yep. Oh, okay. All right, okay. (laughs)

   15. JRJoe Rogan0:28

       I mean, for all the wrong reasons.

   16. MAMarc Andreessen0:29

       Of all the things to worry about.

   17. JRJoe Rogan0:31

       For all... for me, me, my terror of it is although it's a, it's kind of fun terror.

   18. MAMarc Andreessen0:35

       Yeah, sure. Of course, yeah.

   19. JRJoe Rogan0:36

       You know, I'm not really, like, freaking out, but I am recognizing that this is an emerging technology that is so different than anything we've ever experienced before.

   20. MAMarc Andreessen0:43

       Yeah.

   21. JRJoe Rogan0:43

       Particularly, like, tra- like, what's ChatGPT, what's happening with that right now.

   22. MAMarc Andreessen0:47

       Yeah.

   23. JRJoe Rogan0:47

       It's really fascinating and, and a lot of advantages. Like, we were just talking last night, someone in the green room brought up the fact that there was, uh, uh, uh, this, they, they're using it for medical diagnosises.

   24. MAMarc Andreessen0:58

       Mm-hmm, yeah.

   25. JRJoe Rogan0:58

       And it's very accurate.

   26. MAMarc Andreessen0:59

       Yeah.

   27. JRJoe Rogan1:00

       Which is, uh, incredible.

   28. MAMarc Andreessen1:01

       Yeah.

   29. JRJoe Rogan1:01

       There's a lot of good things to it.

   30. MAMarc Andreessen1:03

       Yeah, yeah. It's well... So you probably remember last time I was on, we spent quite a bit of time talking about this, and this is when these-
2. 15:00 – 30:00

   Right. …

   1. JRJoe Rogan15:00

      their, uh, equipment in 2014. And all of a sudden, because of this new, the new capabilities of their equipment, they were able to see these objects that are far distance, that were moving at insane rates of speed, that were hovering dead still at 120-knot winds.

   2. MAMarc Andreessen15:14

      Right.

   3. JRJoe Rogan15:14

      And no visible means of repulsion. They don't know what the fuck they're doing.

   4. MAMarc Andreessen15:18

      Right.

   5. JRJoe Rogan15:18

      And they, they were encountering them, like, every couple of weeks.

   6. MAMarc Andreessen15:21

      Yeah.

   7. JRJoe Rogan15:21

      And then there was some pilots were encountering them with eyewitness accounts. They say there's video footage of it, but, of course, nobody can get ahold of that.

   8. MAMarc Andreessen15:29

      Yeah.

   9. JRJoe Rogan15:29

      It's like the whole thing is very strange.

   10. MAMarc Andreessen15:31

       Okay, so here's something. So the, the, you know, the... A lot of people who are worried about AI are like, "We need to shut it down before it, like, causes problems." Or like, "Wake, wake up, wake, wake up the demon-"

   11. JRJoe Rogan15:38

       Yeah.

   12. MAMarc Andreessen15:38

       ... ca- ca- cause, cause an issue, uh, get something, you know, on Earth that, that, that hates us and wants to kill us." Um, you know, arguably the, the thing we should have shut down from the very beginning was radio.

   13. JRJoe Rogan15:46

       Radio?

   14. MAMarc Andreessen15:47

       Right. 'Cause we've been, like, broadcasting radio waves for the last, you know, 100, 120 years. And the radio waves don't stop once they leave Earth's atmosphere. They keep going. And so we now have radio waves of human activity that have radiated out 120 light years.

   15. JRJoe Rogan15:59

       Is that bad?

   16. MAMarc Andreessen16:00

       Well, depends. Are there hostile aliens within 120 light years?

   17. JRJoe Rogan16:03

       Hmm.

   18. MAMarc Andreessen16:04

       Like, you know. And so, like, but, you know, maybe that was, that was the original sin. And then, and then, of course, television, of course, made that problem much worse.

   19. JRJoe Rogan16:11

       Right. We would have to think of, like, a hostile, militaristic empire that took over a whole planet-

   20. MAMarc Andreessen16:19

       (laughs)

   21. JRJoe Rogan16:19

       ... and then started exploring the solar system. Not one that... We, we like to think of aliens as being evolved, hyper-intelligent, beyond ego and war. They've bypassed all that, and now they're into science and exploration and...

   22. MAMarc Andreessen16:32

       Well, here's a question, though. It's like, do, would, would aliens have a sense of humor, right? Would they, would they, like, be able to differentiate between truth and fiction, right?

   23. JRJoe Rogan16:39

       (sighs)

   24. MAMarc Andreessen16:39

       And so, like, for example, suppose they're sitting in their advanced alien base on, you know, Gemini 9 or whatever, and they're receiving, you know, 30 years, 20 years after the fact episodes of Fear Factor.

   25. JRJoe Rogan16:48

       (laughs)

   26. MAMarc Andreessen16:49

       (laughs) Right? And, and they think that you're actually, like, torturing people, and they figure that in order to preserve the human rights of humanity, they need to invade-

   27. JRJoe Rogan16:56

       Well-

   28. MAMarc Andreessen16:56

       ... as a consequence of your show and take over and protect us.

   29. JRJoe Rogan16:58

       ... that doesn't make any sense 'cause-

   30. MAMarc Andreessen16:59

       Well, but if they don't have a sense of humor, if they don't know this-
3. 30:00 – 45:00

   Right. …

   1. MAMarc Andreessen30:00

      basically came from the Haight-Ashbury in the basically mid-to-late '60s, and then from Laurel Canyon, which was another one of these sort of cultish environments in the mid-to-late '60s. And there was, like, specific moments in time in both of these places. And, you know, basically all of the great rock and roll from that era that determined everything that followed basically came out of this. So, you know, do you want that or not?

   2. JRJoe Rogan30:16

      Right.

   3. MAMarc Andreessen30:16

      Right? (laughs)

   4. JRJoe Rogan30:17

      (laughs)

   5. MAMarc Andreessen30:17

      If you want it, th- you know, that's what you get. Um, I'll give you... Uh, here's a crazy, here's a crazy. Um, y- oh, the, it's the, um, uh... There's the other book about Laurel Canyon that's even crazier than Chaos. It's the book called, uh, Weird Scenes in the Canyon.

   6. JRJoe Rogan30:29

      Oh, okay.

   7. MAMarc Andreessen30:29

      Oh, oh, okay, you would love this one. So, so Laurel Canyon was like the Haight-Ashbury-

   8. JRJoe Rogan30:32

      Weird Scenes in the Canyon.

   9. MAMarc Andreessen30:32

      ... of Los Angeles, right? So Laurel, Laurel Canyon was like the music scene, the, the sort of music and drug and hippie scene of the... It's... Laurel Canyon's actually where the hippie movement started. Um, there was actually a specific group in Laurel Canyon in LA in about 1965. Um, it was a guy named Vito Pilikas, um, and, uh, and he had a group called The Freaks. And they, they were like a n- they were like a non-violent version of the Manson cult. Um, and it was all these young girls, and, and they basically would go to clubs, and they had th- they were the ones to do the beads and the hair and, like, all the, the leather, like all the, all the hippie stuff. Like, they got, they got that rolling. Um-... and so, like, they, they were, they were in Laurel Canyon. And in Laurel Canyon, it was like ground zero. There was, like, this moment where it's like Jim Morrison and The Doors, and Crosby, Stills & Nash, and Frank Zappa, and was it John Phillips? Um, and, um, it was The Mamas & The Papas, and The Byrds, and The Monkees. And, like, all of these, like, iconic bands of that time basically catalyzed over about a two-year period in Laurel Canyon. Um, the, the conspi- (laughs) the conspiracy theory in this book basically is that the whole thing was an op, and the, the, and they, the, it was a military intelligence op. Um, and the, the, the evidence for the theory is that there was an Air Force, uh, uh, military propaganda production facility at the head of Laurel Canyon called Lookout Mountain. Uh, which, uh, right, which today Jared Leto owns and actually lives i-

   10. JRJoe Rogan31:42

       Yeah.

   11. MAMarc Andreessen31:42

       ... lives in.

   12. JRJoe Rogan31:42

       S- I was just gonna say that.

   13. MAMarc Andreessen31:43

       Yeah. But it's, it was a, in, in that era, in the '50s through the '70s, it was a vertically integrated, um, military... Yes, um, it was a, a production facility, uh, for film and music. Um-

   14. JRJoe Rogan31:54

       But by the way, have you met Jared Leto?

   15. MAMarc Andreessen31:56

       Uh, I, uh, briefly, yeah.

   16. JRJoe Rogan31:58

       One of the most interesting-

   17. MAMarc Andreessen31:59

       Yeah.

   18. JRJoe Rogan31:59

       ... guys I've ever talked to.

   19. MAMarc Andreessen31:59

       Incredible. And it makes total sense 'cause it's-

   20. JRJoe Rogan32:00

       Totally normal, like, really fun to talk to.

   21. MAMarc Andreessen32:04

       Yeah, yeah.

   22. JRJoe Rogan32:04

       Not like what you would think of as a famous actor at all.

   23. MAMarc Andreessen32:07

       Yeah.

   24. JRJoe Rogan32:07

       I had dinner with him and drinks. He's a fucking great guy.

   25. MAMarc Andreessen32:10

       But he lives in a military, um-

   26. JRJoe Rogan32:12

       He showed me all the pictures.

   27. MAMarc Andreessen32:13

       (laughs)

   28. JRJoe Rogan32:13

       He showed me. I'm like, "This is wild."

   29. MAMarc Andreessen32:15

       Yeah. So, let-

   30. JRJoe Rogan32:15

       It's amazing.
4. 45:00 – 1:00:00

   (hums) …

   1. MAMarc Andreessen45:00

      sophisticated autocomplete, right, just like your iPhone does an autocomplete. It's doing a-

   2. JRJoe Rogan45:03

      (hums)

   3. MAMarc Andreessen45:03

      ... very sophisticated version of that. But it's doing it for, you know, thousands of words as opposed to just a single word, right?

   4. JRJoe Rogan45:08

      Mm-hmm.

   5. MAMarc Andreessen45:08

      And so... But that's an important concept, because that is actually what it's doing, and it's doing that through, again, this sort of giant corpus of basically all text ever, ever written. Um, another interesting part of that is it's, it's doing it, uh, it's called probabilistically. So normally, a computer, if you ask it a question, you get an answer. You ask it the same question, you get the same answer, kind of. Computers are kind of famously literal in that way. The way these work is not like that at all. You ask it d- a different q- You ask it the same question twice, it'll give you a different answer the second time. And if you keep asking, it'll get, it'll give you more and more d- d- different answers. And it, it's basically taking different paths down the probability tree of the text that it wants to present you-

   6. JRJoe Rogan45:41

      Hmm, interesting.

   7. MAMarc Andreessen45:42

      ... uh, based on the prompt. And so that, that's the basic function of what's happening. But then there is this thing that's happening where as it does this... So, so the way to think about it is it's trying to predict the next word. Um, but to try to predict the next word accurately, it has to build up a more complete, more and more complete internal understanding of how the world operates basically as it goes, right? Because you ask it more and more sophisticated questions, it wants to give you more and more sophisticated answers. And so it, it, it sort of... The early, the early indications are it's building up what's, what they call a world model, uh, inside the neural network. And so it's sort of imputing a model of how the world works, it's imputing a model of physics, it's im- it's, it's imputing a model of math. It's developing capabilities to be able to process information about the world in sophisticated ways, in order to be able to correctly predict the next, the ne- the next word. As part of that, it's, it's actually sort of evolving its own circuitry to be able to, to, to do things, correlate information. It's designed circuitry to be able to generate images, to generate videos, right, to d- to do all kinds of things. And so the, the more information you feed it and the more questions you ask it, the more sophisticated it gets about the material that it, that it, tha- tha- that it's processing. And so it starts to be able to do actually quite smart and sophisticated things to that material. Um, and there are a lot of people testing it right now to see whether it can generate new chemical compounds, whether it can generate new mathematical formula, whether it can generate new product ideas-

   8. JRJoe Rogan46:55

      Hmm.

   9. MAMarc Andreessen46:55

      ... right? New, you know, new, new fictional scenarios, you know, new screenplays-

   10. JRJoe Rogan46:58

       (clears throat)

   11. MAMarc Andreessen46:59

       ... uh, original screenplays. And so if it can do all those things-

   12. JRJoe Rogan47:02

       (clears throat)

   13. MAMarc Andreessen47:02

       ... then what it ought to be able to do is start to c- correlate information about real world e- situations, right, in interesting ways, right? And so, you know, ask it who killed Kennedy or, you know, d- are, are nuclear weapons real? Like, in theory, if it has access to like all written and visual information on that topic, and it has long enough to process it, it's gonna draw connections between things that are beyond what we're able to do. And it will present us with scenarios based on those connections. Now, w- w- will it know that those things are true? Uh, you know, mathematically, if they're true, maybe it will know that. Will it know if things are historically accurate? You know, I, i- you know, as much as any of us ever know that anything is historically accurate. But will it be able to kind of process a much larger amount of information that we can and, and sort of see the world in a more complete way? Like, that seems pretty likely.

   14. JRJoe Rogan47:47

       That seems pretty likely. What, what d- my concern would be is who is directing what information gets out? Because it seems like-

   15. MAMarc Andreessen47:56

       (laughs)

   16. JRJoe Rogan47:56

       ... anybody that's actually in control of AI-

   17. MAMarc Andreessen47:59

       Yeah.

   18. JRJoe Rogan47:59

       ... would have, uh, a massive influence-

   19. MAMarc Andreessen48:03

       Yep.

   20. JRJoe Rogan48:04

       ... on the correct answers for things, what's the, the correct policy that should be followed.

   21. MAMarc Andreessen48:08

       Yeah.

   22. JRJoe Rogan48:09

       It's b- z- 'Cause it seems like the... It's... Politicians are so flawed.

   23. MAMarc Andreessen48:13

       Uh-huh.

   24. JRJoe Rogan48:13

       If there's anyone that's vulnerable-

   25. MAMarc Andreessen48:15

       Yep.

   26. JRJoe Rogan48:15

       ... to AI, it's politicians.

   27. MAMarc Andreessen48:17

       Yep.

   28. JRJoe Rogan48:17

       Because if y- politicians are coming up with these ineffective strategies for handling all these social issues, but then you throw these social issues into an advanced form of, of ChatGPT, and it says, "Over the course of 10 years, this is the best c- case scenario for this strategy."

   29. MAMarc Andreessen48:34

       Right.

   30. JRJoe Rogan48:35

       "And this is how to follow this, and this is how it all play out."
5. 1:00:00 – 1:00:00

   Section 5

   1. MAMarc Andreessen1:00:00

Episode duration: 2:39:59