Joe Rogan Experience #2117 - Ray Kurzweil

1. 0:00 – 15:00

   (drumbeats) Joe Rogan podcast,…

   1. NANarrator0:00

      (drumbeats) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.

   2. RKRay Kurzweil0:04

      The Joe Rogan Experience.

   3. JRJoe Rogan0:06

      Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day. (instrumental music) Good to see you, sir.

   4. RKRay Kurzweil0:13

      Great to see you.

   5. JRJoe Rogan0:15

      I was sta- telling you before, I'm admiring your suspenders, and you told me you have how many pairs of these things?

   6. RKRay Kurzweil0:19

      30 of them, yeah.

   7. JRJoe Rogan0:21

      How did you-

   8. RKRay Kurzweil0:21

      I wear them every day.

   9. JRJoe Rogan0:22

      Do you really?

   10. RKRay Kurzweil0:23

       Yeah.

   11. JRJoe Rogan0:23

       Every day?

   12. RKRay Kurzweil0:24

       Yeah.

   13. JRJoe Rogan0:24

       Why, why do you like suspenders?

   14. RKRay Kurzweil0:26

       Um...

   15. JRJoe Rogan0:27

       Practicality thing?

   16. RKRay Kurzweil0:29

       No, it's, uh... expresses my personality.

   17. JRJoe Rogan0:35

       Mm.

   18. RKRay Kurzweil0:36

       And different ones have different, uh... different personalities that express how I feel that day, so.

   19. JRJoe Rogan0:48

       I see. So, it's just another style point.

   20. RKRay Kurzweil0:50

       Yeah.

   21. JRJoe Rogan0:51

       See, the reason why I was asking-

   22. RKRay Kurzweil0:52

       But, but you don't see any, uh, hand-painted suspenders. Have you ever seen one?

   23. JRJoe Rogan0:56

       Uh, I don't know and I would've not noticed. I only noticed-

   24. RKRay Kurzweil1:00

       Hm.

   25. JRJoe Rogan1:00

       ... 'cause you were here (laughs) . I'm not really a suspender aficionado.

   26. RKRay Kurzweil1:04

       Yeah, well-

   27. JRJoe Rogan1:05

       But the reason why I'm asking is 'cause you're, you know, basically a technologist. I mean, you know a lot about technology. And you would think that suspenders are kinda outdated tech. (laughs)

   28. RKRay Kurzweil1:14

       Uh... Well, people like them.

   29. JRJoe Rogan1:19

       Clearly.

   30. RKRay Kurzweil1:19

       Yeah. And I'm surprised they haven't caught on.
2. 15:00 – 30:00

   Right. …

   1. RKRay Kurzweil15:00

      to happen, like, five years ago.

   2. JRJoe Rogan15:02

      Right.

   3. RKRay Kurzweil15:03

      And we had them two years ago, but they didn't work very well. So it began little less than two years ago that we could actually do large language models. Uh, and, and that was very much a surprise to everybody. Uh, so that, th- that's probably the primary example of exponential growth.

   4. JRJoe Rogan15:22

      We had Sam Altman on. One of the things that he and I were talking about was that AI figured out a way to lie, that they used AI to go through a CAPTCHA system, and the AI told the system that it was vision-impaired, which is not technically a lie, but it used it to bypass-

   5. RKRay Kurzweil15:40

      Well-

   6. JRJoe Rogan15:40

      ... are you a robot?

   7. RKRay Kurzweil15:41

      What we don't know now is f- for large language models to say they don't know something. So you ask it a question, and if that, the answer to that question is not in the system, it still comes up with an answer. So it'll look at everything and give you its best answer. And if the, the best answer is not there, it still gives you an answer, but that's, uh, considered a h- hallucination. And we know-

   8. JRJoe Rogan16:06

      A hallucination?

   9. RKRay Kurzweil16:07

      Yeah, that's what it's called.

   10. JRJoe Rogan16:08

       Really?

   11. RKRay Kurzweil16:09

       So-

   12. JRJoe Rogan16:09

       A AI hallucination? So they cannot be wrong. They have to be able to answer things.

   13. RKRay Kurzweil16:14

       So far, we're, we're actually working on being able to tell if it doesn't know something. So if you ask it something, it says, "Oh, I, I don't know that." Right now, it can't do that.

   14. JRJoe Rogan16:23

       Oh, wow. That's interesting.

   15. RKRay Kurzweil16:26

       So it, it gives you some answer. Um, and if the answer's not there, it just, like, makes something up. It's the best answer, but the best answer isn't very good-

   16. JRJoe Rogan16:38

       Mm-hmm.

   17. RKRay Kurzweil16:38

       ... 'cause it doesn't know the answer. And the way to fix hallucinations is to actually give it more capabilities to memorize things and, uh, and give it more information so it knows the answer to it. If you, if you tell, uh, an answer to a question, it will remember that and give you that correct answer. Um, but these models are not... we don't know everything. And it, it has to... we have to be able to scan an answer to every single question, uh, which we can't quite do. And it'd be actually better if it could actually answer, "Well, gee, I don't know that."

   18. JRJoe Rogan17:19

       Right. Like, uh, and particularly, like, say when it comes to, um, exploration of the universe, if there's a certain amount of, I mean, vast amount of the universe we have not explored. So if it has to answer questions about that, it would just come up with an answer.

   19. RKRay Kurzweil17:33

       Right. And it, and it's, right, it'll just come up with an answer-

   20. JRJoe Rogan17:35

       Interesting.

   21. RKRay Kurzweil17:35

       ... which will likely be wrong.

   22. JRJoe Rogan17:37

       Hmm, that's interesting. But that, that would be a real problem if someone was counting on the AI to have a solution for something too soon, right?

   23. RKRay Kurzweil17:47

       Right. They, they don't know everything. Uh, search engines actually know, are pretty well vetted. And if it actually answers something, it'll, i- it's usually correct. Um...

   24. JRJoe Rogan18:00

       Unless it's curated.

   25. RKRay Kurzweil18:01

       But large language models don't have that capability. Uh, so it'd be good actually if they knew that, that they were wrong. That also tells...... what we have to fix.

   26. JRJoe Rogan18:13

       What about the, the idea that A- AI models are influenced by ideology, that AI models have been programmed with certain ideologies?

   27. RKRay Kurzweil18:23

       I mean, they do learn from people.

   28. JRJoe Rogan18:25

       Yeah.

   29. RKRay Kurzweil18:26

       And people have ideologies.

   30. JRJoe Rogan18:28

       Right.
3. 30:00 – 45:00

   We used to be…

   1. RKRay Kurzweil30:00

      that, that's something that's positive, really. Um, I mean, if, if we were like mice today, um, and we had the opportunity to become like humans, w- we wouldn't object to that. In fact, we are humans, and we don't object to that.

   2. JRJoe Rogan30:19

      We used to be shrews.

   3. RKRay Kurzweil30:21

      (laughs) Um, and this is gonna basically make us smarter. Uh, eventually, we'll be much smarter than we are today. And, uh, and that's a positive thing. We'll be able to do things that are t- today that we find bothersome, uh, in a way that's much more palatable.

   4. JRJoe Rogan30:45

      The idea of us getting smarter sounds great. Great. It'd be great to be smarter. But-

   5. RKRay Kurzweil30:51

      Right. But people object to that-

   6. JRJoe Rogan30:52

      ... the concerns-

   7. RKRay Kurzweil30:52

      ... because it's, uh, it's like competition.

   8. JRJoe Rogan30:55

      Hmm? In what way?

   9. RKRay Kurzweil30:58

      Well, I mean, Google has, I don't know, 60,000, 70,000 programmers? And how many programmers, uh, exist in the world? How, how much longer is that gonna be a viable career?

   10. JRJoe Rogan31:12

       Hmm.

   11. RKRay Kurzweil31:13

       Uh, because, uh, large-

   12. JRJoe Rogan31:15

       The AI program.

   13. RKRay Kurzweil31:15

       ... language models already can code.

   14. JRJoe Rogan31:18

       Yeah.

   15. RKRay Kurzweil31:18

       Not quite as good as, uh, a real expert coder, uh, but how, how long is that gonna be?

   16. JRJoe Rogan31:24

       Right.

   17. RKRay Kurzweil31:25

       It's not g- it's not gonna be 100 years. It's gonna be a, a few years. Um, so people see it as competition. I have a slightly different view of that. I see these things, uh, as actually adding to our own intelligence, and we're merging with these kinds of computers and making ourselves smarter by merging with it, and eventually, it'll go inside our brain and be able to make us smarter i- instantly, uh, just like we had more connections inside our own brain.

   18. JRJoe Rogan32:01

       Well, I think people have reservations always when it comes to great change, and this is probably the greatest change. The, the greatest change we've ever experienced in our lifetimes, for sure, has been the internet. And this will make that look like nothing. It'll, it'll, it'll change everything, and it seems inevitable. Um, I understand that people are upset about it, but it just seems like what human beings were sort of designed to do.

   19. RKRay Kurzweil32:27

       Right. We're the only animal that actually creates technology.

   20. JRJoe Rogan32:30

       Yeah.

   21. RKRay Kurzweil32:31

       And it's a combination of our brain and something else, which is our thumb. So I c- I can imagine something. Oh, if I take that-

   22. JRJoe Rogan32:39

       You can manipulate it, yeah.

   23. RKRay Kurzweil32:39

       ... leaf from the tree, I could create a, uh, a tool with it. Uh, other animals have actually a bigger brain, like the whale.

   24. JRJoe Rogan32:49

       Dolphins.

   25. RKRay Kurzweil32:49

       Uh, dolphins, um, elephants. They have a larger brain than we do, but they don't have something equivalent to the thumb.

   26. JRJoe Rogan32:59

       Right.

   27. RKRay Kurzweil33:00

       Monkey has a thing that looks like the thumb, but it's actually an inch down, and it doesn't actually work very well. So they can actually create a tool, but they don't create a tool that's powerful enough to create the next tool.

   28. JRJoe Rogan33:12

       Hmm.

   29. RKRay Kurzweil33:13

       So we're ac- actually able to cr- use our tools and create something that's that much more significant. Um, so we can create tools, and that's really part of who we are. Um, it, it makes us that much more intelligent, and that's a good thing. Uh, I mean, here's... So here's US personal income per capita. So this is the average amount that we make, uh, per person in constant dollars, and it's just-

   30. JRJoe Rogan34:02

       There it is right here. It's on the screen.
4. 45:00 – 1:00:00

   Uh, I mean, we'll…

   1. JRJoe Rogan45:00

   2. RKRay Kurzweil45:00

      Uh, I mean, we'll be able to create, I mean, the singularity is when we multiply our intelligence a million-fold, and that's 2045. So that's not that long from now. That's like 20 years from now.

   3. JRJoe Rogan45:13

      Right.

   4. RKRay Kurzweil45:14

      Um, uh, and therefore most of your int- intelligence will be, uh, handled by the computer part of ourselves. Um, the only thing that won't be c- captured is what comes with our body originally. We'll ultimately be able to do that as well. It'll take a little longer, but we'll be able to actually capture what comes with our normal body, uh, and be able to re- recreate that. So, that also has to do with, uh, h- how long we live because if, if everything is backed up... I mean, right now, any time you put anything into a phone or any kind of electronics, it's backed up. So, I mean, I could loo- this has a lot of data. I could flip it a- and it ends up in, uh, a river and we can't capture it anymore. I can recreate it 'cause it's all backed up.

   5. JRJoe Rogan46:15

      Right. And you think that's gonna be the case with consciousness?

   6. RKRay Kurzweil46:17

      Th- that's gonna be the case of our normal, uh, biological body as well.

   7. JRJoe Rogan46:22

      What's to stop someone like Donald Trump from just making 100,000 versions of himself? Like, if you can back someone up, could you duplicate it? Couldn't you have three or four of them? Couldn't you have a bunch of them? Couldn't you live multiple lives?

   8. RKRay Kurzweil46:38

      Yes, um, uh-

   9. JRJoe Rogan46:40

      Would you be interacting with each other while you're living multiple lives, having consultations about, "What is St. Louis Ray doing? Oh, I don't know, let's talk to San Francisco Ray. San Francisco Ray is talking to Florida Ray."

   10. RKRay Kurzweil46:51

       Uh, it, it's basically a matter of increasing our intelligence and being able to multiply Donald Trump, for example. That, that comes with that.

   11. JRJoe Rogan47:02

       Do you think there'll be regulations on that to stop people from making 100,000 versions of themselves that operate a city?

   12. RKRay Kurzweil47:08

       Th- there'll be lots of regulations. There's lots of regulations we have already. You can't just, like, create a medication and sell it to people that it cures this disease.

   13. JRJoe Rogan47:17

       Right.

   14. RKRay Kurzweil47:18

       We have tremendous nu- amount of regulation on that.

   15. JRJoe Rogan47:20

       Sure, but we don't, really, with phones.

   16. RKRay Kurzweil47:22

       Yeah.

   17. JRJoe Rogan47:22

       Like, with your phone, you could, uh, essentially, if you had the money, you could make as many copies of that as you wanted.

   18. RKRay Kurzweil47:27

       Yes. Uh, um, there are some regulations. We, we have, we regulate everything, but...

   19. JRJoe Rogan47:34

       Yeah.

   20. RKRay Kurzweil47:35

       But you're right. Generally, electronics is, uh, doesn't have as much regulation as-

   21. JRJoe Rogan47:42

       Right. And when you get to a certain point, we will be electronics.

   22. RKRay Kurzweil47:48

       Yes. Yes, I mean, certainly if we multiply our intelligence a million-fold, everything of that additional million-fold of yours is, is not regulated.

   23. JRJoe Rogan48:01

       Right. When you think about the, the concept of integration and technological integration, when do you think that will start taking place, and what will be the initial usage of it? Like, what will be the first versions, and, and what would, what would they provide that-

   24. RKRay Kurzweil48:20

       Well, we, we have it now. Large language models are pretty impressive. And if you look at what they can do-

   25. JRJoe Rogan48:25

       But I mean, I mean, I'm talking about physical integration with the human body, like a Neuralink type thing.

   26. RKRay Kurzweil48:31

       Right. Some people feel that we could actually understand what's going on in your brain and actually put things into your brain without actually going into the brain, uh, with something like Neuralink.

   27. JRJoe Rogan48:42

       So something that, like, sits on the outside of your head?

   28. RKRay Kurzweil48:45

       Yeah. Uh, it's not clear to me tha- if that's feasible or not. I've, I've been assuming that you ac- have to actually go in. Now, Neuralink isn't exactly where we want because it's too slow, uh, and it actually will do what it's advertised to do, like if... I actually know some people like this who were active people and they completely lost the ability, uh, to speak and to understand language and so on, um, and so they can't actually say anything to you. Um, and we can use something like Neuralink to actually, uh, have them express something. They could think something and then have it be expressed to you.

   29. JRJoe Rogan49:35

       Right. And they're doing that, right? They had the first patient, the first patient that was-

   30. RKRay Kurzweil49:39

       Yeah.
5. 1:00:00 – 1:15:00

   Right. Right. …

   1. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:00

      two atomic weapons within a week, uh, 80 years ago, what, what's the likelihood that we're gonna go another 80 years, uh, and not, and not have that happen again? Everybody would say zero.

   2. JRJoe Rogan1:00:13

      Right. Right.

   3. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:14

      But it actually has happened.

   4. JRJoe Rogan1:00:17

      Shockingly.

   5. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:17

      Yeah.

   6. JRJoe Rogan1:00:19

      Yeah.

   7. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:19

      Uh, and I think there's actually some message there. Um...

   8. JRJoe Rogan1:00:24

      Mutually assured destruction. But the thing is, would-

   9. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:28

      But, but, but-

   10. JRJoe Rogan1:00:28

       ... Artificial General Intelligence...

   11. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:30

       But that, but that has not happened.

   12. JRJoe Rogan1:00:31

       Right.It has not happened yet. But would artificial general intelligence, in the control of the wrong people, negate that mutually assured destruction that keeps people from doing things? Obviously, we did drop bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

   13. RKRay Kurzweil1:00:46

       Right.

   14. JRJoe Rogan1:00:47

       We did. We did indiscriminately kill, who knows how many hundreds of thousands of people with those weapons. We did it. And if human beings were capable of doing it because no one else had it, if artificial general intelligence reaches that sentient level and is in control of the wrong people, what's to stop them from doing... Th- th- there's no mutually assured destruction if you're the one who's got it. You're the only one who's got it, and you possibly... My concern is that whoever gets it could possibly stop it from being spread everywhere else, and, and control it completely, and then you're looking at a completely dystopian world.

   15. RKRay Kurzweil1:01:28

       Right. So that's... If you ask me what I'm concerned about, it, it, it's along those lines.

   16. JRJoe Rogan1:01:32

       It's that. Along those lines.

   17. RKRay Kurzweil1:01:33

       (laughs)

   18. JRJoe Rogan1:01:33

       Yeah. That's what... 'Cause that's what I always want to get out of you guys, because there's so many people that are, um, rightfully so, so high on this technology and the possibilities for enhancing our lives. But, uh, the concern that a lot of people have is that at what cost and what are we signing up for?

   19. RKRay Kurzweil1:01:49

       Right. But, uh, I mean, if we wanna, for example, live indefinitely, this is what we need to do. We, we can't do... We can't-

   20. JRJoe Rogan1:01:58

       What if you're denying yourself heaven? Have you ever thought of that possibility? I know that's a ridiculous abstract concept, but if heaven is real, if the idea of the afterlife is real, and it's, uh, the next level of existence, and you're constantly going through these cycles of life, what if you're stepping in, artificially denying that?

   21. RKRay Kurzweil1:02:17

       That's hard to imagine. I mean-

   22. JRJoe Rogan1:02:19

       It is hard to imagine, but so is life.

   23. RKRay Kurzweil1:02:21

       I-

   24. JRJoe Rogan1:02:21

       So is the universe itself. So is the-

   25. RKRay Kurzweil1:02:23

       Right.

   26. JRJoe Rogan1:02:23

       ... Big Bang.

   27. RKRay Kurzweil1:02:23

       My, my father-

   28. JRJoe Rogan1:02:23

       So is black holes.

   29. RKRay Kurzweil1:02:24

       My father died when I was 22, uh, so it's more than 50, 60 years ago. Um, and, uh, it's hard f- And he was actually a great musician, and he great, created, uh, fantastic music, but he hasn't done that since he died. Um, and there's nothing that exists, uh, that is at all creative, um, based on him. We have his memories. Uh, I actually created a large language model that represented him. I can actually talk to him.

   30. JRJoe Rogan1:03:08

       You do that now?
6. 1:15:00 – 1:30:00

   They certainly do, but…

   1. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:00

      Can they actually... I mean, they can talk.

   2. JRJoe Rogan1:15:03

      They certainly do, but would you wanna be one?

   3. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:06

      Uh, are we different than that, than that?

   4. JRJoe Rogan1:15:08

      Yeah, we're people. We shake hands. I give you a hug. You pet my dog. You listen to music. You have, you have-

   5. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:14

      Yeah, we'll be able to do all of that as well.

   6. JRJoe Rogan1:15:16

      Right, but will you want to? Will you even care? The thing is, like, a lot of what gives us joy in life is biological motivations. There's human reward systems that are put in place that allow us to-

   7. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:26

      Well, it's gonna be part of who we are.

   8. JRJoe Rogan1:15:28

      Right.

   9. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:28

      It'll be just like-

   10. JRJoe Rogan1:15:29

       But that-

   11. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:30

       ... a person, and we'll also have our physical bodies as well, and that'll also be able to be backed up. And we'll be doing the things that we do now, except we'll be able to have them continue.

   12. JRJoe Rogan1:15:43

       So if you get hit by a car and you die, there's another Ray that just pops up. "Oh, we got the back-up Ray." And the back-up Ray will have no feelings at all about how it had died and come back to life?

   13. RKRay Kurzweil1:15:57

       Well, that's a question. Uh-

   14. JRJoe Rogan1:15:59

       Yeah.

   15. RKRay Kurzweil1:16:01

       ... I mean, uh, I mean, why wouldn't it be just like Ray is now?

   16. JRJoe Rogan1:16:04

       It... Why wouldn't it? If it gets to a certain p- if we figure out that if, if biological life is essentially some... a kind of technology that the universe has created, and we can manipulate that to the point where we understand it, we get it, we, we've, uh, we've optimized it and then replicate it. Physically replicate it. Not just, not just replicate it in form of, you know, uh, in a, uh, computer, but an actual physical being.

   17. RKRay Kurzweil1:16:30

       Right. Well, that's where we're headed.

   18. JRJoe Rogan1:16:32

       Do you anticipate that people will be happy with whatever they have? 'Cause, uh, if you decide, "I don't like being 5'6". I wish I was 6'6". I don't like being a woman. I like... I wanna be a man. I don't wanna be, uh, Asian. I wanna be," you know, whatever. "I wanna be a Black person. I wanna be..."

   19. RKRay Kurzweil1:16:50

       Uh, we'll actually be able to do all of those things, uh, simultaneously and so on. We're not gonna be limited by those kinds of-

   20. JRJoe Rogan1:16:59

       Right.

   21. RKRay Kurzweil1:16:59

       ... happen- happenstance.

   22. JRJoe Rogan1:17:01

       Which is gonna be very strange. Like, what will human beings look like if you give people the ability to manipulate your physical form?

   23. RKRay Kurzweil1:17:07

       Well, we do things now that, uh, were impossible even 10 years ago.

   24. JRJoe Rogan1:17:11

       We certainly do, but we don't change races, size, sex, gender, height. We don't, we don't do all those... And the, the radical increase in just your intelligence, like, what is that going to look like? What, what kind of an interaction is it gonna be between two human beings when you have a completely new form? You know, you're, you're much different physically than you ever were when you were alive. You're, you're taller, you're stronger, you're smarter, you're faster, you're-

   25. RKRay Kurzweil1:17:37

       Well-

   26. JRJoe Rogan1:17:38

       ... you're basically not really a human anymore. You're a new thing.

   27. RKRay Kurzweil1:17:42

       Uh, I mean, we're expanding who we are. We already expanded who we are from, you know...

   28. JRJoe Rogan1:17:47

       Sure. Right.

   29. RKRay Kurzweil1:17:48

       Uh...

   30. JRJoe Rogan1:17:48

       Over a course of hundreds of thousands of years-
7. 1:30:00 – 1:31:40

   Um, because it's based…

   1. JRJoe Rogan1:30:00

      by mere human creations, creativity, all of these different things, why would it even have the ambition to do any sort of galaxy-wide engineering? Why would it want to?

   2. RKRay Kurzweil1:30:14

      Um, because it's based on us, I mean.

   3. JRJoe Rogan1:30:17

      It is based on us until it decides it's not based on us anymore. That's my point. If it realized that like if we're based on a w- a very violent chimpanzee and we say, "You know what? There's a lot of what we are because of our genetics that really are a problem and this is what's causing all of our violence, all of our crime, all of our war," if we just step in and put a stop to all that, will we also-

   4. RKRay Kurzweil1:30:40

      Well, I- I would-

   5. JRJoe Rogan1:30:41

      ... put a stop to our ambition?

   6. RKRay Kurzweil1:30:42

      I would maintain that we're actually moving away from that and the s- s-

   7. JRJoe Rogan1:30:46

      We are moving away from that.

   8. RKRay Kurzweil1:30:47

      Yeah.

   9. JRJoe Rogan1:30:47

      But- but that's just natural, right? That's natural with our more- uh, our understanding and our-... mitigations of these social problems.

   10. RKRay Kurzweil1:30:53

       Right. So if we expand that even more, we'll be even more in that direction.

   11. JRJoe Rogan1:30:58

       As long as we're still we. But as soon as you become something different, why would it even have the desire to expand? If it was infinitely intelligent, why would it even wanna physically go anywhere? Why would it want to? What's the reason for our reason- uh, our, our, our motivation to expand? What is it? It's human. These are like, the same humans that were tribal creatures that roamed, the same humans that stole resources from neighboring villages. This is our genes, right? This is what made us, that got us to this point. If we create a sentient artificial intelligence that's far superior to us, and it can create its own version of artificial intelligence, the first thing it's gonna engineer out is all these stupid emotions that get us in trouble.

Episode duration: 2:03:02