Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #400

1. 0:00 – 0:07

   Introduction

   1. LFLex Fridman0:00

      The following is a conversation with Elon Musk, his fourth time on this, the Lex Fridman Podcast.

2. 0:07 – 4:33

   War and human nature

   1. LFLex Fridman0:07

   2. EMElon Musk0:07

      (whistling)

   3. LFLex Fridman0:10

      (laughs)

   4. EMElon Musk0:16

      (whistling)

   5. LFLex Fridman0:20

      I thought you were gonna finish it.

   6. EMElon Musk0:25

      (whistling)

   7. LFLex Fridman0:25

      It's one of the greatest themes in all of film history.

   8. EMElon Musk0:29

      (whistling) Yeah, it's great.

   9. LFLex Fridman0:33

      So, I was just thinking about the Roman Empire, as one does.

   10. EMElon Musk0:37

       (laughs) There's that whole meme, uh, where (laughs) old guys are, are thinking-

   11. LFLex Fridman0:43

       Yeah.

   12. EMElon Musk0:43

       ... about the Roman Empire at least once a day.

   13. LFLex Fridman0:44

       Yeah. And half the population is confused whether it's true or not. But more seriously, thinking about the wars going on in the world today, and as you know, uh, war and military conquest has been a big part of, uh, Roman society and culture. And it, I think, has been a big part of most empires and dynasties throughout human history. So...

   14. EMElon Musk1:06

       Yeah. They usually, uh, came as a result of conquest. I mean, there's some, like the Austria-Hungarian Empire, where there was just a lot of, uh, sort of clever marriages. Um...

   15. LFLex Fridman1:16

       But fundamentally, there's an engine of conquest.

   16. EMElon Musk1:19

       Yeah. Almost always.

   17. LFLex Fridman1:19

       And they celebrate excellence in warfare. Many of the leaders were excellent generals.

   18. EMElon Musk1:26

       Yeah.

   19. LFLex Fridman1:26

       That kind of thing. So, big-picture question, grok-approved. I ask if this is a good question to ask, and-

   20. EMElon Musk1:32

       Kid-tested, grok-approved?

   21. LFLex Fridman1:34

       Yeah. (laughs) Uh, at least on fun mode.

   22. EMElon Musk1:37

       (laughs)

   23. LFLex Fridman1:39

       Uh, (laughs) uh,

   24. EMElon Musk1:41

       (laughs)

   25. LFLex Fridman1:41

       ...to what degree do you think war is part of human nature versus a consequence of, uh, how human societies are structured? I ask this as you have somehow controversially been a proponent of peace.

   26. EMElon Musk1:57

       I'm, uh, generally a proponent of peace. I mean, ignorance is perhaps, in my view, the real enemy to be countered. That's the real hard part. Not, you know, fighting other humans. Um, but a- all creatures fight. I mean, the, the, the jungle is a... You look at the j-... People think of, of this nature as perhaps some sort of peaceful thing, but in fact, it is not. There's some quite funny Werner H- Werner Herz- Herzog thing, where he's, like, in the jungle, like, saying that it's, like, basically just murder and death in every direction.

   27. LFLex Fridman2:29

       Mm-hmm.

   28. EMElon Musk2:29

       I mean, the, the, the plants and animals in the jungle are constantly trying to kill and eat each other, every single day, every minute. So it's not like, uh, you know, we're unusual in that respect.

   29. LFLex Fridman2:40

       Well, there's, there's a relevant question here, whether with greater intelligence, uh, comes greater control over these base instincts for violence.

   30. EMElon Musk2:49

       Yes. We have much more of an ability to control our, our, um, Olympic instinct for violence than, say, a chimpanzee. And in fact, if, if one looks at, say, chimpanzee society, it is not friendly. I mean, the, bonobos are an exception. Um, but chimpanzee society is, uh, filled with violence, and it's quite, quite horrific, frankly. But that's, that's our limbic system in action. Like, you don't want to be on the wrong side of a chimpanzee. He'll eat your face off and tear your nuts off.
3. 4:33 – 10:41

   Israel-Hamas war

   1. EMElon Musk4:33

   2. LFLex Fridman4:33

      So, like I said, somehow controversially, you've been an, uh, proponent of peace on, on Twitter, on X.

   3. EMElon Musk4:38

      Yeah.

   4. LFLex Fridman4:39

      So let me ask you about the wars going on today and to see what the path to peace could be. How do you hope the current war in Israel and Gaza comes to an end? Uh, what path do you see that can minimize human suffering in the long term in that part of the world?

   5. EMElon Musk4:54

      Well, I think that, that part of the world is, is definitely... Like, if you look up the "there is no easy answer" in the dictionary, it'll be that, like, the picture of, uh, the Middle East, um, and Israel especially. So, there is no easy answer. Um, what my... This is strictly my opinion of, you know, is that, uh, the, the goal of Hamas was to provoke an overreaction from Israel. Um, they obviously did not expect to, uh, you know, have a military victory. Uh, but they, they exp- they, they really wanted to commit the worst atrocities that they could in order to provoke the, uh, the most aggressive response possible from Israel. Um, and then leverage that, uh, aggressive response to, um, rally Muslims worldwide, uh, for the cause of, uh, Gaza and Palestine, which they have succeeded in doing. Um, so the, the s- the, the...... counterintuitive thing here, I think the, the, the thing that I think should be done, even though it is very difficult, uh, is that, um, I- I would recommend that Israel engage in the most cons- conspicuous acts of kindness possible, every pa- everything. That is the actual thing that would thwart the goal of Hamas.

   6. LFLex Fridman6:19

      So, in some sense, to the degree that makes sense in geopolitics, turn the other cheek, implemented.

   7. EMElon Musk6:26

      It's not exactly turn the other cheek, uh, because I do think that there's, um ... you know, that- that- I think it- it is appropriate for Israel to find the Hamas members and, you know, um, either, either kill them or incarcerate them. Um, like that, something, something has to be done because th- they're just gonna keep, keep, keep coming otherwise. Um, but, uh, in addition to that, they need to do whatever they can. Um, there's some talk of, uh, say establishing, for example, a mobile hospital. I'd recommend doing that. Um, just making sure that, uh, you know, there's food, water, uh, medical necessities, um ... and, and just be over the top about it, and be very transparent, so it's, so that it can't, people can't claim it's a trick. Like, just put a webcam on the thing.

   8. LFLex Fridman7:25

      Mm-hmm.

   9. EMElon Musk7:25

      Uh, you know, all, 24/7.

   10. LFLex Fridman7:29

       Deploy acts of kindness.

   11. EMElon Musk7:31

       Yeah. Conspicuous acts of kindness that, that with- that are unequivocal, meaning they can't be somehow ... because Hamas will then, their response will be, "Oh, it's a trick." Therefore you have to counter how, how it's not a trick.

   12. LFLex Fridman7:47

       This ultimately fights the broader force of hatred in the, in the region.

   13. EMElon Musk7:51

       Yes. And I'm not sure who said it, so it's an apocryphal saying, but an eye for an eye makes everyone blind. Uh, now that neck of the woods, they really believe in the whole eye for an eye thing. Um ... but, I mean, you really have ... if- if you're not gonna just outright, uh, commit genocide, like against an entire people, which obviously would not be acceptable to, to, to, really shouldn't be acceptable to anyone, um, then you, you're gonna leave basically a lot of people alive who subsequently, you know, hate Israel. So really the question is like, how ... for, for every Hamas member that you kill, how many did you create?

   14. LFLex Fridman8:32

       Mm-hmm.

   15. EMElon Musk8:33

       And if you create more than you kill, you've not succeeded. That's the, you know, the real situation there. Um, and it's safe to say that if, you know, um ... if, you know, if- if you kill somebody's child in Gaza, you've- you've- you've made at least a few, uh, Hamas members who will die just, just to kill an Israeli. That's the situation. So (clears throat) (sighs) but, but, I mean, this is one of the most contentious subjects one could possibly discuss, but, but I think if, if the goal ultimately is some sort of long-term peace, one has to be, look at this from the standpoint of, over time, are there more or fewer, uh, terrorists being created?

   16. LFLex Fridman9:26

       Let me just, uh, linger on war.

   17. EMElon Musk9:29

       Yeah. Well, war, it's safe to say wars always existed and always will exist.

   18. LFLex Fridman9:33

       Always will exist?

   19. EMElon Musk9:34

       Always has, always has existed and always will exist.

   20. LFLex Fridman9:37

       I hope not. You think it always will?

   21. EMElon Musk9:39

       There will always be war. It's a question of just how much war, and, and, um, you know, what ... you know, there's this, there's this sort of the scope and scale of war.

   22. LFLex Fridman9:49

       Mm-hmm.

   23. EMElon Musk9:49

       But to, to imagine that there would not be any war in the future I think would be a very unlikely outcome.

   24. LFLex Fridman9:55

       Yeah, you talked about The Culture series, there's war even there.

   25. EMElon Musk9:58

       Yes. There's giant war. The first book starts off with, um, a gigantic galactic war where trillions die, trillions.

   26. LFLex Fridman10:07

       But it still nevertheless protects these pockets of, of flourishing. So somehow you can have galactic war and still have pockets of flourishing?

   27. EMElon Musk10:18

       Yeah, I mean, it's (laughs) ... I guess if- if- if we are able to one day expand to, you know, fill the galaxy or whatever, there will be a, a galactic war at some point.

   28. LFLex Fridman10:30

       Oh, the scale. I mean, the scale of war has been increasing, increasing, increasing. It's like a race between the scale of suffering and the scale of flourishing.

   29. EMElon Musk10:38

       Yes.

   30. LFLex Fridman10:40

       (sighs)

4. 10:41 – 14:58

   Military-Industrial Complex

   1. LFLex Fridman10:41

      A lot of people seem to be using this tragedy to beat the drums of war and feed the military industrial complex. Do you worry about this? The people who are rooting for escalation and how can it be stopped?

   2. EMElon Musk10:56

      One of the things that does concern me is that there are very few people alive today who actually viscerally understand the horrors of war, at least in the US. I mean, obviously there are people in- on the front lines in Ukraine and Russia who understand just how terrible war is. Um, but how many people in the West understand it? Um, you know, my grandfather was in World War II. Uh, he was severely traumatized. I mean, he was there for, I think, for almost six years in the, you know, in East and North Africa and Italy. Uh, all his friends were killed, uh, in front of him. And, uh, he would have died too, um, except they randomly gave some, I guess, IQ test or something, and, uh, he scored very high. Um, now he was not an officer. He was, I think, a corporal or a sergeant or something like that. Um, because he didn't finish high school, um, because he had to drop out of high school because his, his dad died and he had to work to support his, uh, siblings. Um, so because he didn't graduate high school, he was not eligible for the Officer Corps. Um, so, you know, he kind of got put into the cannon fodder category (laughs) basically. Um, but then...... randomly, they gave him this test, he was transferred to British Intelligence in London, that's where he met my grandmother. Um, but, uh, he- he had PTSD next level. Like, next level. I mean, just didn't talk. Just didn't talk. And if you tried talking to him, he'd just tell you to shut up. And he won a bunch of medals. Never- never bragged about it once. Not- not even h- hinted, nothing. I, like, found out about it because, uh, his military records were online. That's, uh, that's how, uh, how I know. So, (laughs) he would say, like, "No- no way in hell do you wanna- do you wanna do that again." But how many people, um ... now, he- he obviously ... he, no, he died, you know, 20 years ago, or- or longer actually, 30 years ago. Um, how many people are alive that remember World War II? Not many.

   3. LFLex Fridman12:54

      And the same perhaps applies to the threat of nuclear war.

   4. EMElon Musk13:01

      Yeah. I mean, there are enough nuclear bombs pointed at, uh, United States to make the rubble, the radioactive rubble bounce many times.

   5. LFLex Fridman13:10

      There's two major wars going on right now. So you talked about the threat of AGI quite a bit, but now as we sit here with the intensity of conflict going on, do you worry about nuclear war?

   6. EMElon Musk13:25

      I think we shouldn't discount the possibility of nuclear war. Um, it is a civilizational threat. Um, right now, I could be wrong, but I think the- the- the current probability of nuclear war is quite low. Um, but there are a lot of nukes pointed at us. So ... and we have a lot of nukes pointed at other people. They're still there. Nobody's put their, uh, their guns away. The- the missiles are still in the silos.

   7. LFLex Fridman13:57

      And, uh, the leaders don't seem to be the ones with the nukes talking to each other.

   8. EMElon Musk14:03

      No. There are wars which are tragic and difficult on a- on a local basis, and then there are wars which are s- civilization-ending or have that potential. Obviously, global thermonuclear warfare has high potential to end civilization, perha- perhaps permanently, but certainly, you know, to severely, uh, wound and- and perhaps, uh, set back, uh, human progress by, you know, to the Stone Age or something. I don't know. Pretty bad. Um, probably sci- uh, scientists and engineers won't be super popular after that as well. (laughs) They're like, "You got us into this mess." (laughs)

   9. LFLex Fridman14:45

      Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

   10. EMElon Musk14:46

       So, generally, we sh- I think we- we obviously wanna prioritize civilizational risks over things that are, um, painful and tragic on a- on a local level but not civilizational.

5. 14:58 – 19:41

   War in Ukraine

   1. EMElon Musk14:58

   2. LFLex Fridman15:00

      How do you hope the war in Ukraine comes to an end? And what's the path, once again, to minimizing human suffering there?

   3. EMElon Musk15:08

      Uh, well, I think the ... what- what is likely to happen, uh, which is really pretty much the- the way it is, is that, uh, something very close to the current lines, uh, will be how a ceasefire or truce happens. But, you know, you- you just have a situation right now where whoever goes on the offensive, um, will suffer casualties at several times the rate of whoever's on the defense.

   4. LFLex Fridman15:40

      Mm-hmm.

   5. EMElon Musk15:40

      Um, 'cause you've got, uh, defense in-depth. You've got minefields, uh, trenches, anti-tank defenses. Um, nobody has air superiority, um, 'cause the- the- the anti-aircraft missiles are really far better than the a- the aircraft. Like, there are far more of them, um, and, uh, so neither side has, uh, air superiority. Um, tanks are basically death traps, um, just slow moving and they're- they're not immune to anti-tank weapons.

   6. LFLex Fridman16:09

      Mm-hmm.

   7. EMElon Musk16:09

      So you- you really just have long-range artillery, um, and, uh, infantry trenches. It's World War I all over again.

   8. LFLex Fridman16:19

      Mm-hmm.

   9. EMElon Musk16:21

      With drones. You know, throwing a little drone, some- some drones there. Um ...

   10. LFLex Fridman16:25

       Which makes the long-range artillery just that much more accurate-

   11. EMElon Musk16:28

       Yeah.

   12. LFLex Fridman16:28

       ... and better, and so more efficient at murdering people on both sides.

   13. EMElon Musk16:32

       Mm-hmm. Yeah. So it's ... who- who- whoever is ... you don't- you don't- you don't wanna be trying to advance, uh, from either side 'cause the probability of dying is incredibly high. Um, so in order to overcome, uh, defense in-depth trenches and minefields, you really need a significant local superiority in numbers, um, ideally combined arms where- where you- you do a fast attack with aircraft, a- a concentrated number of tanks, um, and a lot of people. That's the only way you're gonna pu- punch through a line. And then you gotta punch through and st- and- and then not have reinforcements just kick you right out again. I mean, if- if you ... I- I really recommend people read, uh, World War I warfare in detail. It's rough. Um ... I mean, the sheer number of people that died there was mind-boggling.

   14. LFLex Fridman17:37

       And it's almost impossible to, um, imagine the end of it that doesn't look like, almost exactly like the beginning in terms of wh- what land belongs to who and so on, but on the other side have a lot of human suffering, death-

   15. EMElon Musk17:54

       Yes.

   16. LFLex Fridman17:54

       ... and destruction of infrastructure.

   17. EMElon Musk17:56

       Yes. Uh, I mean, th- the thing that ... uh, the reason I've- I, you know, proposed a- a- some sort of truce or- or- or peace a year ago was because I've-... predicted pretty much exactly what would, would happen, uh, which is a lot of people dying for basically almost no changes in land. Um, and this, the, the loss of the flower of Ukrainian and Russian youth, and we should have some sympathy for the, the Russian boys as well as the Ukrainian boys, because they're- Russian boys didn't, didn't ask to be on that frontline. They have to be. So, um, there's a lot of sons not, not coming back to their parents, you know? And the, and I think most of them don't, don't really have, they don't hate the other side. You know, it's sort of like, there's this saying about, like this saying comes from World War I, it's like, "Young boys who don't know each other killing each other on behalf of old men that do know each other." (sighs) The hell's the point of that?

   18. LFLex Fridman19:02

       So, Volodymyr Zelensky said that he's not, or has said in the past, he's not interested in talking to Putin directly. Do you think he should?

   19. EMElon Musk19:09

       Yeah.

   20. LFLex Fridman19:09

       Sit down, man-to-man, leader-to-leader, and negotiate peace?

   21. EMElon Musk19:14

       Look, I think, I would just recommend do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth to be, to die, uh, in trenches. Uh, whether you talk to Putin or not, just don't do that. Um, whoever goes on the offensive will lose massive numbers of people. Um, and history will not look kindly upon them.

6. 19:41 – 33:57

   China

   1. LFLex Fridman19:42

      You've spoken honestly about the possibility of war between US and China in the long term if no diplomatic solution is found. For example, on the question of Taiwan and One China policy.

   2. EMElon Musk19:52

      Right.

   3. LFLex Fridman19:52

      How do we avoid the trajectory where these two superpowers clash?

   4. EMElon Musk19:58

      Well, it's worth reading that book, um, the, the (laughs) , difficult to pronounce, The Thucydides Trap, I believe it's called. I love war history. I like inside out and backwards. Um, there's hardly a battle I haven't read, read about. And, and trying to figure out like what, what really was the cause of victory in any particular case, as opposed to what one side or another claimed was the reason.

   5. LFLex Fridman20:21

      Both the victory and what sparked the war, and...

   6. EMElon Musk20:24

      Yeah, yeah.

   7. LFLex Fridman20:25

      The whole thing.

   8. EMElon Musk20:27

      Yeah. So, that Athens and Sparta is a classic case. The thing about the Greeks is they really wrote down a lot of stuff. They loved writing.

   9. LFLex Fridman20:32

      Mm-hmm.

   10. EMElon Musk20:33

       Um, you know, there are lots of interesting things that happened in many parts of the world, but they just, people just didn't write it down. (laughs)

   11. LFLex Fridman20:38

       Mm-hmm.

   12. EMElon Musk20:38

       So we don't know what happened or th- they didn't really write with de- in detail. They just would say like, "We went, we had a battle, and we won." And like, "Well, what, can you add a bit more?"

   13. LFLex Fridman20:50

       (laughs)

   14. EMElon Musk20:51

       Um, the, the Greeks, they really wrote a lot (laughs) . They're very articulate on it. They just love writing, so.

   15. LFLex Fridman20:57

       Mm-hmm.

   16. EMElon Musk20:57

       And we have a bunch of that writing that's preserved. So we know what led up to the, uh, Peloponnesian War between, um, the Spartan and Athenian alliance. Um, and, uh, we, we know that they, they for quite... they, they saw it coming.

   17. LFLex Fridman21:14

       Mm-hmm.

   18. EMElon Musk21:15

       I mean, the Spartans didn't write ... they also weren't very verbose by their nature. But they did write, but they weren't very verbose. (laughs) Yeah, they were terse. Uh, but the, the Athenians and the other Greeks wrote, wrote a lot. And they were like, um... and Sparta was really kinda like the leader of, of Greece. Um, but, but Athens grew stronger and stronger with each passing year. And, um, and everyone was like, "Well, that's inevitable that there's gonna be a clash between Athens and Sparta. Uh, well, how do we avoid that?" And they couldn't, they couldn't. They actually, they saw it coming and they still could not avoid it. (laughs) So, you know, at some point if there's, if, if one, uh, group, one civilization or, or country or whatever, um, exceeds another, sort of like if... you know, the United States has been the biggest k- kid on the block for, since I think around 1890 from an economic standpoint. So, the United States has been the economic, most powerful economic engine in the world longer than anyone's been alive. Um, and the foundation of war is economics. So, now we have a situation in the case of China where the, um, the economy is likely to be two, perhaps three times larger than that of the US. So imagine you're the biggest kid on the block for as long as anyone can remember, and suddenly a kid comes along who's twice your size.

   19. LFLex Fridman22:55

       So we see it coming.

   20. EMElon Musk22:57

       Yeah.

   21. LFLex Fridman22:57

       How is it possible to stop? Is there some, let me throw something out there, just intermixing of cultures, understanding. There does seem to be a giant cultural gap in understanding of each other. And you're an interesting case study because you are an American, obviously.

   22. EMElon Musk23:14

       Mm-hmm. Yes.

   23. LFLex Fridman23:14

       You've done a lot of, uh, incredible manufacture here in the United States, but you also work with China.

   24. EMElon Musk23:20

       I've spent a lot of time in China and met with the leadership many times.

   25. LFLex Fridman23:22

       Maybe a good question to ask is, what are some things about China that people don't understand, positive, just in the culture? What's some interesting things that you've learned about the Chinese?

   26. EMElon Musk23:36

       Well, uh, the, the sheer number of really smart, hardworking people in China is, um, incredible. Uh, there are, I believe, if you say like, "How many smart, hardworking people are there in China?" There's far more of them there than there are here, I think, in my, in my opinion. Um, the, uh, and they've got a lot of energy. So, I mean, the, the architecture in China that's in recent years is far more impressive than the US. I mean, the, the train stations, the buildings, the high-speed rail, everything. It's, um...... really far more impressive than what we have in the US. I, I mean, I recommend somebody just go to Shanghai and Beijing, look at the buildings. And go to, you know, take the train from Beijing to Xi'an where you have the Terracotta Warriors. Um, China's got an incredible history, a very long history. And, um, you know, I think arguably the, in terms of the use of language from, from a written standpoint, um, sort of one of, one of the oldest perhaps, perhaps the oldest written language. And then China, people did write things down. So, um, now China, um, historically has always been, with rare exception, been internally focused. Um, they've not been acquisitive. Uh, they've, they've fought each other. There have been many, many civil wars.

   27. LFLex Fridman25:07

       Mm-hmm.

   28. EMElon Musk25:07

       Um, in the Three Kingdoms War, I believe they lost about 70% of their population. Something on the end that

   29. NANarrator25:14

       (laughs)

   30. EMElon Musk25:15

       So they, they've had brutal internal wars, like civil wars that make the US Civil War look small by comparison. Um, so I think it's important to appreciate that China is not, uh, monolithic.
7. 33:57 – 44:55

   xAI Grok

   1. EMElon Musk33:57

      (sighs)

   2. LFLex Fridman33:57

      To escape briefly the darkness with some incredible engineering work, uh, xAI just released Grok, AI assistant, that I've gotten the chance to play with. It's, uh, it's amazing on many levels. First of all, it's amazing that a relatively small team in a relatively short amount of time was able to develop this close to state-of-the-art system. Uh, another, uh, incredible thing is there's a regular mode and there's a fun mode.

   3. EMElon Musk34:23

      Yeah. I guess I'm to blame for that one. (laughs)

   4. LFLex Fridman34:26

      (laughs) I wish it, first of all, I wish everything in life had a fun mode.

   5. EMElon Musk34:29

      Yeah.

   6. LFLex Fridman34:30

      I, there's something compelling beyond just fun about the fun mode-

   7. EMElon Musk34:35

      Yeah.

   8. LFLex Fridman34:35

      ... interacting with a large language model. I'm not sure exactly what it is 'cause I only have had a little bit of time to play with it, but it just makes it more interesting, more vibrant to interact with the system.

   9. EMElon Musk34:48

      Yeah. Uh, absolutely. I, um, our, our, (laughs) our AI Grok is modeled after The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy-

   10. LFLex Fridman34:57

       Mm-hmm.

   11. EMElon Musk34:57

       ... uh, which is, uh, one of my favorite books. Uh, which is w- it's a book on philosophy t- disguised as a book on humor.

   12. LFLex Fridman35:05

       Mm-hmm.

   13. EMElon Musk35:05

       Um, and, um, I would say that is, that forms the basis of my philosophy, uh, wh- which is that we don't know the meaning of life, but the more we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness, digital and biological, the more we are able to understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe. So I have a philosophy of curiosity.

   14. LFLex Fridman35:34

       There is generally a feeling like this AI system has an outward looking, like the way you are, like sitting with a good friend looking up at the stars, like, the asking pothead-like questions about the universe, wondering what it's all about, the curiosity that you talk about. There, there's a sense no matter how mundane the question I ask it, there's, there's a sense of cosmic grandeur to the whole thing.

   15. EMElon Musk35:59

       Well, we, we are actually working hard to have, uh, engineering, math, physics answers that you can count on.

   16. LFLex Fridman36:07

       Mm-hmm.

   17. EMElon Musk36:08

       Um, so for the other sort of AIs out there, the what is, these so-called large language models, um, I've not found the, uh, engineering to be reliable, um, and it, it, the hallucination, it, it unfortunately hallucinates mo- most when you least want it to hallucinate. (laughs)

   18. LFLex Fridman36:29

       Yeah.

   19. EMElon Musk36:29

       So when you ask important diff- difficult questions, that, that's when it tends to be confidently wrong.Um, so we're really tr- trying hard to say, "Okay, how do we be as grounded as possible so you can count on the results?" Um, I trace things back to physics's first principles, uh, mathematical logic. Um, so underlying the humor is an aspiration to a- adhere to the truth of the universe as closely as possible.

   20. LFLex Fridman37:01

       That's really tricky.

   21. EMElon Musk37:02

       It is tricky. So, that's why, you know, you, you, there's always gonna be some amount of error, but we wanna, um, aspire to be as truthful as possible about the answers, uh, with acknowledged error. Um, so that there was always... You don't wanna be confidently wrong. So you're not, not gonna be right every time, but you don't wanna be... You wanna minimize how often you're confidently, uh, wrong. And then like I said, once you can count on the logic as being, um, not violating physics, then you can start to, to build on that to create, uh, inventions. Like invent new technologies. But if y- if you can't c- if y- if you'll, if you cannot count on the foundational physics being correct, obviously the inventions are simply wishful thinking, you know, imagination land. Magic, basically.

   22. LFLex Fridman38:01

       Well, as you said, I think one of the big goals of xAI is to understand the universe.

   23. EMElon Musk38:06

       Yes. That's our simple three-word, uh, mission. (laughs)

   24. LFLex Fridman38:12

       Um, if you look out far into the future, do you think, on this level of physics, the very edge of what we understand about physics, do you think it will make discoveries, sort of the sexiest discovery of them as, as we know now, sort of, uh, unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics? So coming up with a theory of everything. Do you think it could push towards that direction, almost like theoretical physics discoveries?

   25. EMElon Musk38:38

       If an AI cannot figure out new physics, um, it's clearly not equal to humans, let alone nor, nor has sur- surpassed humans. 'Cause humans have figured out new physics. They're just, you know, physics is just understanding, you know, deepening one's insight into how reality works. And then, um, then, then, then this engineering, which is inventing things that have never existed.

   26. LFLex Fridman39:01

       Mm-hmm.

   27. EMElon Musk39:01

       Now the, the range of possibilities for engineering is far greater than for physics because, you know, w- once you figure out the rules of the universe, uh, that, that's, that's it. You've discovered things that already existed. Um, but from that, you can then build technologies with, that are really almost limitless in the, uh, variety and cap- you know. It's like once you understand the rules of the game properly... And we do, w- you know, with current physics, we do, at least at a local level, understand how physics works very well. Where our ability to predict things is incredibly good. Like quantum mechanics is, the greater which quantum mechanics can predict outcomes is incredible. Um, that was my ha- that was my har- hardest class in college, by the way. (laughs)

   28. LFLex Fridman39:45

       (laughs)

   29. EMElon Musk39:45

       My quan- my, my senior quantum mechanics class was harder than all of my other classes put together.

   30. LFLex Fridman39:50

       To get an AI system, a large language model to, to, um, reliably, be as reliable as quantum mechanics and physics is very difficult.
8. 44:55 – 52:55

   Aliens

   1. EMElon Musk44:55

   2. LFLex Fridman44:55

      The first time we talked, you said, what you would, which is surreal that, to think that this discussion was happening, is becoming a reality. I asked you what question would you ask an AGI system once you create it, and you said, "What's outside the simulation is the question." And (laughs) -

   3. EMElon Musk45:12

      (laughs)

   4. LFLex Fridman45:12

      ... good question.

   5. EMElon Musk45:13

      Yeah.

   6. LFLex Fridman45:13

      But it seems like with Grok you're starting to ... th- literally, uh, this system's goal is to be able to ask such questions, to answer such questions-

   7. EMElon Musk45:22

      Yeah.

   8. LFLex Fridman45:22

      ... and to ask such questions.

   9. EMElon Musk45:24

      Where are the aliens?

   10. LFLex Fridman45:25

       Where are the aliens?

   11. EMElon Musk45:26

       That's one of the ph- like, the Fermi paradox question. Um, a lot of people have asked me if, if I've seen any evidence of aliens, and I, I haven't, which is kind of concerning, 'cause then ... I think we'd ... I'd probably prefer to at least have seen some archaeological evidence of aliens. Um, to the, to the best of my knowledge, there is no pro- I'm not aware of any evidence of aliens. If they're out there, they're very subtle. We might just be the only consciousness, at least in the galaxy. Um ... and if you, if you look at, say, the history of Earth, for- for one is to believe the archaeological record, Earth is about four and a half billion years old. Civilization, as measured from the first writing, is only about 5,000 years old. We have to give some credit there to the ancient Sumerians, who aren't around anymore. I think it was the archaic cuneiform was the first actual symbolic representation, but only about 5,000 years ago. I think that's a good date for when we'd, say, civilization started. That's one millionth of Earth's existence. So civilization has been around ... it's really a flash in the pan, so far. Um ... and why, why have we ... why did it take so long? For, you know, four and a half billion years? Um ... for the vast majority of that time, there was no life, and then there was archaic bacteria for a very long time, and then, you know, you had ... mitochondria get captured, multicellular life, um, differentiation into plants and animals, life moving from the oceans to land, mammals, um, higher brain functions. And the sun is expanding slowly, um, but i- it will, it will overheat, it will, it will heat, heat the Earth up at s- some point in the future, um, boil the oceans and, and Earth will become like Venus, wh- where no life, life as we know it is impossible. So if we do not become multi-planetary, and ultimately ex- go beyond our solar system, um, annihilation of all life on Earth is a certainty. A certainty. Um, and it could be as little as (laughs) on the galactic time scale, uh, half a billion years. You know, long time by human standards, but that, that's only 10% longer than Earth has been around at all.

   12. LFLex Fridman48:15

       Mm-hmm.

   13. EMElon Musk48:16

       So if, if, if life had taken 10% longer to evolve on Earth, it wouldn't exist at all.

   14. LFLex Fridman48:25

       (sighs) We got a deadline coming up.

   15. EMElon Musk48:28

       (laughs) Yeah.

   16. LFLex Fridman48:29

       Better hurry. But that said, as you said, humans, intelligent life on Earth developed a lot of cool stuff very quickly. So-

   17. EMElon Musk48:38

       Yes.

   18. LFLex Fridman48:39

       ... it, it seems like becoming a multi-planetary is almost inevitable.... unless we destroy this thing.

   19. EMElon Musk48:45

       We need to do it. Uh, I mean, it's, it's not... I mean, I suspect that there, there... I- if we are able to go out there and explore other st- star systems that we... there's a good chance we find a whole bunch of long dead one planet civilizations.

   20. LFLex Fridman49:01

       Yeah.

   21. EMElon Musk49:01

       They never p- made it past their home planet.

   22. LFLex Fridman49:03

       That's so sad.

   23. EMElon Musk49:04

       Yeah.

   24. LFLex Fridman49:05

       It's really sad. Also fascinating but...

   25. EMElon Musk49:08

       I mean, there are various explanations for the Fermi paradox and one is this, the sort of, there are these great filters which civilizations don't pass through, and one of those great filters is do you become a multi-planet civilization or not? And if you don't, it's simply a matter of time before something happens on your planet, um, you know, either natural or manmade, that causes us to die out like the dinosaurs. Where are they now? They didn't have spaceships (laughs) , so...

   26. LFLex Fridman49:42

       I think the more likely thing is, 'cause just to, uh, uh, empathize with aliens, that they, they found us and they're protecting us and letting us be.

   27. EMElon Musk49:51

       I hope so. They'll be nice aliens.

   28. LFLex Fridman49:53

       Just like the tribes in the, in the Amazon. The uncontacted tribes were protecting them. That's what, uh...

   29. EMElon Musk49:59

       That would be a nice explanation.

   30. LFLex Fridman50:00

       Or you could have, like, uh, what was it? Uh, I think Andre Kapathi said it's like the ants in the Amazon asking, "Where's everybody?" (laughs)
9. 52:55 – 55:22

   God

   1. LFLex Fridman52:55

      If you go to the big questions once again. You said you've, um, you're with Einstein that you believe in the God of Spinoza.

   2. EMElon Musk53:03

      (laughs) Yes.

   3. LFLex Fridman53:05

      Uh, so, you know, that, that's a view that God is like the universe and is, reveals himself through the laws of physics or as Einstein said, through the lawful harmony of the world.

   4. EMElon Musk53:16

      Yeah, I would agree. Like, that God of the simulator or whatever, the supreme being or beings, um, uh, re- re- reveal themselves through the physics. You know, they're creators of this existence and it's incumbent upon us to try to understand more about this wondrous creation.

   5. LFLex Fridman53:37

      Like, who created this thing? Who's running this thing? Like, embodying it into a singular question with a sexy word on top of it is like focusing the mind to understand it. It does seem like there's a, um... again, it could be an illusion. It seemed like there was a purpose, that there's an underlying master plan of some kind, and it seems like...

   6. EMElon Musk53:58

      There may not be a master plan in the sense... so there's, like... maybe an interesting answer to the question of determinism versus free will is that if we are in a simulation, the reason that the, the, these higher beings would hold a simulation is to see what happens.

   7. LFLex Fridman54:16

      Mm-hmm.

   8. EMElon Musk54:17

      So it's not... um, they don't know what happens. Uh, otherwise they wouldn't hold the simulation.

   9. LFLex Fridman54:24

      Mm-hmm.

   10. EMElon Musk54:24

       So when, when humans create a simulation... so it's SpaceX and Tesla, we create simulations all the time. Um, especially for the rocket. You, you, uh, you know, you have to run a lot of simulations to understand what's gonna happen because you can't really test the rocket until it goes to space and you want it to work. So you have to, you have to simulate subsonic, transonic, hyp- uh, supersonic, hypersonic, um...... ascent, and then coming back, super high heating, and, um, orbital dynamics. And all this is gonna be simulated. So, uh, 'cause you don't get very many kicks at the can. But we, we run the simulations to see what happens. Not, if we knew what happens, we wouldn't run the simulation.

   11. LFLex Fridman55:09

       Mm-hmm.

   12. EMElon Musk55:09

       So if, if there's... So whoever created this existence, um, is... Th- they're running it because they don't know what's gonna happen, not because they do.

10. 55:22 – 1:04:29

    Diablo 4 and video games

    1. EMElon Musk55:22

    2. LFLex Fridman55:22

       (inhales) So maybe, uh, we both play Diablo. Maybe Diablo was created to see if a druid, your character, could defeat Uber Lilith at the end, they didn't know.

    3. EMElon Musk55:34

       Well, the funny thing is that Uber Lilith's, uh, her title is Hatred Incarnate.

    4. LFLex Fridman55:40

       Yeah.

    5. EMElon Musk55:41

       Um, and right now, I guess-

    6. LFLex Fridman55:44

       (laughs)

    7. EMElon Musk55:45

       ... you, you can ask the Diablo team, but it's almost impossible to defeat Hatred, uh, in the eternal realm.

    8. LFLex Fridman55:55

       Yeah, you've streamed yourself dominating to your 100 Nightmare-

    9. EMElon Musk55:58

       Yeah.

    10. LFLex Fridman55:58

        ... Dungeons.

    11. EMElon Musk55:59

        I can-

    12. LFLex Fridman56:00

        And still-

    13. EMElon Musk56:01

        I, I, I can cruise through tier 100 Nightmare Dungeons like a stroll in the park.

    14. LFLex Fridman56:05

        Mm-hmm.

    15. EMElon Musk56:06

        (laughs)

    16. LFLex Fridman56:07

        And still you're defeated by Hatred.

    17. EMElon Musk56:09

        Yeah. I can... There's th- the sort of, I guess, maybe the second hardest boss is Duriel. Duriel can't even scratch the paint.

    18. LFLex Fridman56:15

        Mm-hmm.

    19. EMElon Musk56:16

        So, uh, I killed Duriel, Duriel so many times. Um, and ev- every other boss in the game, all o- all of them, killed them so many times, it's easy. Um, but, uh, Uber Lilith, otherwise known as Hatred Incarnate, especially if you're a druid and you have no ability to go and, to be invulnerable, you... The, there are these (laughs) random death waves that, that come at you. Um, and I'm pretty... You know, really, I am 52, so my reflexes are not what they used to be, but I'm, I have a lifetime of playing video games. Um, at one point I was, you know, maybe one of the best Quake players in the world. Um, I actually won money for, and again, and what I think was the first paid esports tournament in the US. Um, we were doing, doing four person Quake tournaments, and, um, we came second. I was the second best person on the team, and the, the actual best person that... We were, we were actually winning, we were gonna come first, except the best person on the team, his computer crashed halfway through the game.

    20. LFLex Fridman57:18

        (laughs)

    21. EMElon Musk57:18

        Um, so we, we came second. (laughs) But I got money for it and everything. So like, basically I got skills.

    22. LFLex Fridman57:24

        Mm-hmm.

    23. EMElon Musk57:24

        You know, albeit, you know, I'm no spring, spring chicken these days. And, um, the... To be totally frank, it's driving me crazy-

    24. LFLex Fridman57:33

        (laughs)

    25. EMElon Musk57:34

        ... (laughs) trying to beat Lilith as a druid. Basically, try, trying to beat, (laughs) trying to beat Hatred Incarnate in the eternal realm. (laughs)

    26. LFLex Fridman57:41

        As a druid.

    27. EMElon Musk57:41

        As a druid.

    28. LFLex Fridman57:42

        (laughs)

    29. EMElon Musk57:42

        And if you, if you, if you... (laughs) It's just really vexing, let me tell you. Um...

    30. LFLex Fridman57:49

        I mean, the challenge is part of the fun. I, I have seen directly, like, you're actually like a world class incredible video game player.
11. 1:04:29 – 1:10:41

    Dystopian worlds: 1984 and Brave New World

    1. LFLex Fridman1:04:30

       Um, I mean, does, do you worry about AI, AGI enabling a dystopian state of this nature? Whether it's 1984 with surveillance and fear, or Brave New World with pleasure?

    2. EMElon Musk1:04:42

       (laughs)

    3. LFLex Fridman1:04:43

       (laughs) And what is it? Lo- lots of sex, but no, uh, deep human experience.

    4. EMElon Musk1:04:51

       You know, there, there's actually a real drug called Soma.

    5. LFLex Fridman1:04:54

       There is?

    6. EMElon Musk1:04:54

       Yes. (laughs) I'm like-

    7. LFLex Fridman1:04:57

       Let me take notes.

    8. EMElon Musk1:04:57

       ... "Did they actually-"

    9. LFLex Fridman1:04:58

       Does Grok know about it? (laughs) No, he probably will go to Brave New World. (laughs)

    10. EMElon Musk1:05:02

        We could ask it.

    11. LFLex Fridman1:05:03

        What, what would be the question?

    12. EMElon Musk1:05:05

        Tell us about the drug called Soma.

    13. LFLex Fridman1:05:08

        Tell us about the drug called Soma. (typing sounds) It's gonna go to Brave New World, I think.

    14. EMElon Musk1:05:15

        Well, there's a real drug as well.

    15. LFLex Fridman1:05:18

        Searching for Soma drug information. (laughs)

    16. EMElon Musk1:05:22

        (laughs)

    17. LFLex Fridman1:05:22

        Oh boy. Ah, Soma, the wonder drug. By the way, I'm in fun mode.

    18. EMElon Musk1:05:27

        Oh, okay. Fu- (laughs)

    19. LFLex Fridman1:05:29

        (laughs)

    20. EMElon Musk1:05:29

        Yeah, so it's talking about the real drug.

    21. LFLex Fridman1:05:31

        Oh, it's a muscle relaxant that's been around since the 1950s. It's used to treat muscle pain and discomfort, and it does this by altering the activity between neurons in the spinal cord. Now, Soma isn't just a pain reliever. It's also a bit of a sedative. It can make you feel a bit drowsy, so it's not something to take if you're planning on operating heavy machinery or trying to solve complex math equations. (laughs) And it goes on and on. In conclusion, Soma is a drug that can be helpful for those dealing with muscle pain, but it's not without its risks. That's pretty good. Oh, wait a minute.

    22. EMElon Musk1:06:01

        That's the real drug he's talking about.

    23. LFLex Fridman1:06:03

        That's the real drug.

    24. EMElon Musk1:06:04

        Yeah.

    25. LFLex Fridman1:06:05

        Uh, and of course, the fun is, "Always use it responsibly and in accordance with the advice of a healthcare professional, and remember, in the end, the universe is probably just a giant computer simulation, so don't take anything too seriously." I love it.

    26. EMElon Musk1:06:18

        (laughs)

    27. LFLex Fridman1:06:18

        I love it. I love it. (laughs)

    28. EMElon Musk1:06:21

        (laughs)

    29. LFLex Fridman1:06:21

        I love it.

    30. EMElon Musk1:06:21

        (laughs) Yeah, so ...
12. 1:10:41 – 1:16:22

    AI and useful compute per watt

    1. LFLex Fridman1:10:41

       it seems that training LLMs efficiently is a big focus for xAI. Oh, what's the, uh... First of all, what's the limit of what's possible in terms of efficiency? There's this, uh, terminology of useful productivity per watt. What have you learned-

    2. EMElon Musk1:10:58

       Yeah.

    3. LFLex Fridman1:10:58

       ... pushing the limits of that?

    4. EMElon Musk1:10:59

       Well, I- I think it's helpful, the tools of physics are very powerful and can be applied, I think, to almost any, really any arena in life.

    5. LFLex Fridman1:11:06

       Mm-hmm.

    6. EMElon Musk1:11:07

       It's- it's really just a critical thinking. For something important, you need to reason with, from first principles and think about things in the limit, one direction or the other. So, um, in the limit, even at the Kardashev scale, meaning even if you harness the entire power of the sun, you will still care about useful compute per watt. So that's where I- I think probably where things are headed from, uh, the standpoint of AI is that we- we have a silicon shortage now that will transition to a voltage transformer shortage in about a year.

    7. LFLex Fridman1:11:46

       Mm-hmm.

    8. EMElon Musk1:11:46

       Ironically, transformers for transformers.

    9. LFLex Fridman1:11:49

       (laughs)

    10. EMElon Musk1:11:50

        You need, you need transformers to run transformers.

    11. LFLex Fridman1:11:53

        Somebody has a sense of humor in this thing.

    12. EMElon Musk1:11:54

        (laughs) I think (laughs) ... Yes.

    13. LFLex Fridman1:12:00

        Oh, man.

    14. EMElon Musk1:12:00

        Fate loves irony. (laughs) . Ironic humor, an- an ironically funny outcome seems to be often what fate wants.

    15. LFLex Fridman1:12:09

        Humor is all you need. I think-

    16. EMElon Musk1:12:11

        (laughs)

    17. LFLex Fridman1:12:11

        ... spice is all you need, somebody posted.

    18. EMElon Musk1:12:13

        (laughs) Yeah, but yeah, so- so we're- we're- have a silicon shortage today. Um, a voltage step-down transformer shortage probably in about a year, and then just electricity shortages in general in about two years. I- I gave a speech for the sort of world gathering of utility companies, electricity companies.

    19. LFLex Fridman1:12:31

        Mm-hmm.

    20. EMElon Musk1:12:32

        Um, and I- I said, "Look, you really need to prepare for a tripling of electricity demand." Um, because all transport is gonna go electric with the ionic exception of rockets. And, uh, and- and heating, um, will also go electric. Um, so energy usage right now is roughly one-third, very rough terms, one-third electricity, one-third transport, one-third heating. Um, and so in order for everything to go sustainable, to go electric, um, you, uh, need to triple electricity output. So I encouraged the utilities to-... uh, build more power plants and, and also to probably have... Well, well not probably, they should definitely buy more batteries. Because the, the grid currently is sized for real-time load, which is kinda crazy 'cause, you know, that means you've gotta size for whatever the, the peak electricity demand is. Like, the worst second or the worst day of the year, or you're gonna have a brownout or a blackout. And, you know, we had that crazy blackout for several days in T- in, in Austin. Um, so, uh, because there's almost no buffering of energy in the grid. Like, if you've got a hydro power plant you can buffer energy, but otherwise, um, it's all real time. So, with batteries you can, you can produce energy at night and, and use it during the day, so you can buffer. So I- I- I expect that there will be very heavy usage of, of batteries in the future. Because the- the- the peak to trough ratio for power plants is anywhere from two to five, you know, so it's like lowest point to highest point.

    21. LFLex Fridman1:14:20

        So like a battery is necessary to balance it out. And then by the demand, as you're saying, is going to grow, grow, grow, grow.

    22. EMElon Musk1:14:25

        Yeah.

    23. LFLex Fridman1:14:25

        And part of that is the compute.

    24. EMElon Musk1:14:29

        Yes. Yes. I mean, e- ele- electrification, I mean, electrification of transport, uh, and, and electric heating will, will be much bigger than AI. At least-

    25. LFLex Fridman1:14:40

        In the short term.

    26. EMElon Musk1:14:40

        ... in the short term. Um, but even for, for AI, I mean, you really have a growing demand for electricity for electric vehicles, and a growing demand for electricity for, to run the computers for AI.

    27. LFLex Fridman1:14:53

        Mm-hmm.

    28. EMElon Musk1:14:54

        And so this is obviously gonna lead to a sh- an electricity shortage.

    29. LFLex Fridman1:14:58

        How difficult is the problem of, uh, in this particular case, maximizing the useful productivity per watt for training neural nets? Like this seems to be really where the big problem we're facing that needs to be solved is how to use the power efficiently. Like, what you've learned so far about applying this physics first principle reasoning in this domain, how difficult is this problem?

    30. EMElon Musk1:15:29

        It will get solved, it's just a question of how long it takes to solve it. So at various points there's a limit, some- some kind of limiting factor to progress. Um, and when, with regard to AI I'm saying right now the limiting factor is, uh, silicon chips.
13. 1:16:22 – 1:23:14

    AI regulation

    1. EMElon Musk1:16:22

    2. LFLex Fridman1:16:22

       Okay, let's talk about the competition here. You've shown concern about Google and Microsoft with OpenAI developing, uh, AGI. How can you help ensure with xAI and, uh, Tesla AI work that it doesn't become a competitive race to AGI, but instead is a collaborative development of safe AGI?

    3. EMElon Musk1:16:42

       Well, I mean I've been pushing for some kind of regulatory oversight for a long time. I've been somewhat of a Cassandra on the subject for over a decade. Um, I think we want to be very careful in how we develop AI. Um, it's a- it's a- it's a great power and with great power comes great responsibility. Um, I think it- it would be wise for us to have at least, um, an objective third party who can be like a referee that can go in and understand what the various leading players are doing with AI. And even if there's no enforcement ability they should- they can at least voice concerns, um, publicly. Um, you know, J- Geoff Hinton for example, left Google and he voiced strong concerns. But now he's not at Google anymore, so who's gonna voice the concerns? So I think- I think there's... I- I- I, like I... You know, Tesla gets a lot of regulatory oversight on the automotive front, and we're subject to I think over 100 regulatory agencies domestically and internationally. So- so it's a lot. Uh, I mean you could fill this room with the all the regulations that Tesla has to adhere to for automotive. Um, same is true in- you know, for rockets and for ... Currently the limiting fact of SpaceX for Starship launch is regulatory approval. Uh, the FAA has actually given their approval but we're- we're waiting for Fish and Wildlife to, uh, finish their analysis and give their approval. That- that's why I posted I want to buy a fish license on (laughs) ... Which also refers to the Monty Python sketch.

    4. LFLex Fridman1:18:28

       Yeah. (laughs)

    5. EMElon Musk1:18:29

       (laughs) It's like, "Why do you need a license for your fish?" "I- I don't know." (laughs)

    6. LFLex Fridman1:18:33

       (laughs)

    7. EMElon Musk1:18:34

       "According to the rules, I'm told you need some sort of fish license or something." We effectively need a fish license to launch a rocket. (laughs)

    8. LFLex Fridman1:18:43

       (laughs)

    9. EMElon Musk1:18:44

       And I'm like wait a second, how did the fish come into this picture?

    10. LFLex Fridman1:18:47

        Yeah.

    11. EMElon Musk1:18:47

        Um, I mean so- some of the things like that- that it's, I feel like are so absurd that I want to do like a comedy sketch and flash at the bottom this is all real.

    12. LFLex Fridman1:18:59

        Yeah.

    13. EMElon Musk1:18:59

        This is actually what happened. Um, you know, one of the things that was a bit of a challenge at one point was that they were worried about, uh, our rocket hitting a shark.

    14. LFLex Fridman1:19:09

        Mm-hmm.

    15. EMElon Musk1:19:09

        And, um, you know, the ocean's very big and how, uh, often do you see sharks? Uh, not that often, you know. As a percentage of ocean surface area, sharks basically are zero.... and, and, and so then we will ... Then we said, "Well, how will we calculate the probability of, of tallying a shark?" And they're like, "Well, we can't give you that information," because well, they're worried about shark hunt- shark fin hunters, uh, going and hunting sharks. And I say, "Well, how are we supposed to ... We're on the horns of a dilemma then."

    16. LFLex Fridman1:19:38

        Mm-hmm.

    17. EMElon Musk1:19:39

        (laughs) Then they said, "Well, there's another part of Fish and Wildlife that can, can do this analysis." I'm like, "Well, why don't you give them the data?" Like, "We don't, they don't, we don't trust them." I'm like, "Excuse me? You don't ... But they're literally in your department."

    18. LFLex Fridman1:19:51

        Yeah.

    19. EMElon Musk1:19:51

        And again, this is actually what happened. Um, and, uh, and, and, and then can you do an NDA or something? (laughs) Eventually, they managed to solve the internal quandary and indeed, uh, the probability of us hit- of us hitting a shark is essentially zero. Um, then there's another organization that I didn't realize existed until, uh, you know, a few months ago, uh, that cares about whether you, we would potentially hit a whale in international waters. Now again, you look at the surface of the ... Look at the, look at the Pacific and say, "What percentage of the s- the Pacific consists of whale?" Like, I'll give you a big picture and, like, point out all the whales in this picture and I was like, "I don't see any whales." (laughs) It's like ba- basically 0%. Um, and if our rocket does hit a whale, which is extremely unlikely, beyond all belief, um, that is the, the ... Fate had it in ... That's a l- that whale has some seriously bad luck.

    20. LFLex Fridman1:20:45

        Mm-hmm.

    21. EMElon Musk1:20:46

        You know, it's the least lucky whale ever. Um, and, um ...

    22. LFLex Fridman1:20:50

        I mean, this is quite absurd.

    23. EMElon Musk1:20:52

        Yeah. (laughs)

    24. LFLex Fridman1:20:53

        The bureaucracy, the bureaucracy of this, however it emerged.

    25. EMElon Musk1:20:57

        Yes. Well, I, I mean, one, one of the things that's pretty wild is, um, for launching out of Vandenberg in California, we had to ... They were worried about, uh, seal procreation, whether the seals would be dismayed by the sonic booms. Um, now there've been a lot of rockets launched out of Vandenberg and the seal population has, uh, steadily increased. Um, so if anything, rocket booms are an aphrodisiac, um, based on the evidence, if you correlate rock launches with, uh, seal population.

    26. LFLex Fridman1:21:27

        Mm-hmm.

    27. EMElon Musk1:21:27

        Um, nonetheless, we were forced to kidnap a seal, strap it to a board, put e- headphones on the seal, and play sonic boom sounds to it to see if it would be distressed. This is an actual thing that happened. This is actually real. I have pictures. (laughs)

    28. LFLex Fridman1:21:47

        (laughs) I would love to see this. Yeah. There's, I mean, I'm sorry.

    29. EMElon Musk1:21:51

        It's a seal.

    30. LFLex Fridman1:21:51

        There's a seal with headphones.
14. 1:23:14 – 1:30:36

    Should AI be open-sourced?

    1. EMElon Musk1:23:14

    2. LFLex Fridman1:23:14

       Uh, what are the pros and cons of open-sourcing AI to you as another way to combat, um, you know, a company running away with AGI?

    3. EMElon Musk1:23:28

       In order to run, uh, like, really deep intelligence, you need a lot of compute. So it's not like, you know, you can just fire up a PC in your basement and be running AGI, at least not yet. Um, you know, Grok was trained on 8,000 A100s running at peak efficiency. Um, and Grok's gonna get a lot better, by the way. We will be more than doubling our compute every couple of months for the next several months.

    4. LFLex Fridman1:24:02

       There's a nice write-up on how it went from Grok-0 to Grok-1.

    5. EMElon Musk1:24:06

       By Grok? (laughs)

    6. LFLex Fridman1:24:07

       Yeah. By Grok just bragging, making shit up about itself. (laughs)

    7. EMElon Musk1:24:12

       (laughs) Just Grok, Grok, Grok.

    8. LFLex Fridman1:24:13

       Yeah. (laughs)

    9. EMElon Musk1:24:17

       (laughs)

    10. LFLex Fridman1:24:17

        That's like a weird AI dating site. It exaggerates about itself. No, there's a, there's a write-up of, you know, like where, where it stands now, the history of its development, um, and where it stands on, on some benchmarks compared to the state-of-the-art GPT-3.5. And so, I mean, there's a, you know, there's a LLaMA ... You, you can open source ... Once it's trained, you can open source the model.

    11. EMElon Musk1:24:41

        Yeah.

    12. LFLex Fridman1:24:41

        And for fine-tuning and all that kinda stuff, like, what to you is the pros and cons of that, of open sourcing base models?

    13. EMElon Musk1:24:49

        (sighs) Um, I think there's some merit to open sourcing, I think perhaps with a slight time delay, you know? I don't know, six, six months even. Um, I think I- I'm generally in favor of open sourcing, like b- my bias towards open sourcing. Um, I mean, it, it is a concern to me that, you know, OpenAI ... You know, I was, you know, argu- I think, I guess arguably the, the, the prime, the, the, you know ...... prime mover behind OpenAI, in the sense that it was created because of discussions that I had with, uh, Larry Page, um, back when he and I were, were friends. And you know, I'd stay at his house, and I talked to him about AI safety. And, and Larry did not care about AI safety, or at least at the time he didn't. Um, you know, and at one point he called me a speciesist for being pro-human. And I'm like, "Well, what team are you on, Larry?" Uh, he said, "On Team Robot" (laughs) to be clear. And I'm like, okay, so at the time, you know, uh, Google, Google had qu- had acquired DeepMind. They had, uh, probably two-thirds of all AI resour- you know, probably two-thirds of all the AI researchers in the world.

    14. LFLex Fridman1:26:01

        Mm-hmm.

    15. EMElon Musk1:26:02

        They had basically inf- infinite money and compute. And the guy in charge, you know, Larry Page, did not care about safety and even yelled at me, um, and, and s- called me a speciesist and ... being pro-human.

    16. LFLex Fridman1:26:20

        So I don't know if you know this about humans ...

    17. EMElon Musk1:26:22

        So ...

    18. LFLex Fridman1:26:22

        ... they can change their mind, and maybe you and Larry Page can still, can be friends once more.

    19. EMElon Musk1:26:27

        I'd like to be friends with Larry again. Um, he, he's, he, he got ... uh, real- really the, the, the, the, the breaking of the friendship was over OpenAI. Um, and specifically, um, I think the f- like the key moment was, uh, recruiting Ilya Sutskever. Um, so ...

    20. LFLex Fridman1:26:47

        I love Ilya. He's so brilliant.

    21. EMElon Musk1:26:49

        Ilya is a good, good human. Uh, smart, good heart. Um, and, um, that was a, that was a tough recruiting battle. Um, it was mostly Demis on one side and me on the other, both trying to recruit Ilya. And Ilya went back and forth. You know, he was gonna stay at Google, then he was gonna leave, then he was gonna stay, then he was leave. (laughs) And, and finally he, he did agree to join OpenAI. Uh, that was one of the toughest recruiting battles we ever had. And, but that, that was really the, the linchpin for OpenAI, uh, being successful. And I was, you know, also instrumental in recruiting a number of other people. And I provided all of the funding in the beginning, um, over $40 million. Um, and the name. (laughs) The, the open in OpenAI is supposed to mean open source. And it was created as a nonprofit open source, and now it is a closed source for maximum profit, which I think is not good karma.

    22. LFLex Fridman1:27:51

        But like we talked about with war and leaders talking, I do hope that ... There's only a few folks working on this at the highest level. I do hope you reinvigorate friendships here.

    23. EMElon Musk1:28:02

        Like I said, I'd like to be friends again with Larry. I haven't seen him in ages. Um, and we were friends for a very long time. I met, I met Larry Page before he got funding for Google, or actually, I guess, before he got venture funding. I think he had, he got the first like 100 K from-

    24. LFLex Fridman1:28:17

        Wow.

    25. EMElon Musk1:28:18

        ... I think Bechtelsheim or someone. Um-

    26. LFLex Fridman1:28:20

        It's wild to think about all that happened and you've, the guy's known each other that whole time. Just 20 years.

    27. EMElon Musk1:28:26

        Yeah, since maybe-

    28. LFLex Fridman1:28:27

        Whatever.

    29. EMElon Musk1:28:27

        ... '98 or something.

    30. LFLex Fridman1:28:28

        Yeah. It's crazy. Crazy how much has happened since then.
15. 1:30:36 – 1:41:57

    X algorithm

    1. LFLex Fridman1:30:36

       ... A lot of the, uh, uh, X algorithm has been open source and been written up about, and it seems that there to be some machine learning. It's disparate, but there's some machine learning.

    2. EMElon Musk1:30:44

       It's a little. There's a little bit. Um, it, but it needs to be entirely that, like the r- at least in the ... Like if, if you explicitly follow someone, that's one thing, but if you, in terms of what is recommended-

    3. LFLex Fridman1:30:54

       Mm-hmm.

    4. EMElon Musk1:30:54

       ... uh, from people that you don't follow, that should all be AI.

    5. LFLex Fridman1:30:58

       I mean, it's a fascinating problem.

    6. EMElon Musk1:30:59

       Yeah.

    7. LFLex Fridman1:31:00

       So there's several aspects of it that's fascinating. First, so as the write-up goes, it first picks 1500 tweets from a pool of hundreds of millions. First of all, that's fascinating 'cause you have-

    8. EMElon Musk1:31:10

       Mm-hmm.

    9. LFLex Fridman1:31:11

       ... hundreds of millions of posts every single day, and it has to pick 1500 from which it then does obviously people you follow, but then there's also like some kind of clustering it has to do to figure out ...... what kind of human are you, what kind of new clusters might be relevant to you, people like you. This, this kinda, this kinda problem is just fascinating, because it has to then rank those 1,500-

Episode duration: 2:16:46