Ryan Graves: UFOs, Fighter Jets, and Aliens | Lex Fridman Podcast #308

1. 0:00 – 1:18

   Introduction

   1. RGRyan Graves0:00

      How are these interacting with our fighters, if they are? How are they interacting with the weather and their environment? How are they interacting with each other? So can we look at these and how they're interacting perhaps as a swarm? Especially off the East Coast where this is happening all the time with multiple objects. The following is a conversation with Lieutenant Ryan Graves, former Navy fighter pilot, including roles as a combat lead, landing signals officer, and rescue mission commander. He and people in his squadron detected UFOs on multiple occasions and he has been one of the few people willing to speak publicly about these experiences, and about the importance of investigating these sightings, especially for national security reasons. Ryan has a degree in mechanical and aerospace engineering from WPI, and an interest in career roles in advanced technology development, including multi-agent collaborative autonomy, machine learning-assisted air-to-air combat, manned and unmanned teaming technologies, and most recently, development of materials through quantum simulation. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description, and now, dear friends, here's Ryan Graves.

2. 1:18 – 14:23

   Top Gun analysis

   1. RGRyan Graves1:18

      What did you think of the new Top Gun movie? How accurate was it? Let's start there. I thought the flying was really accurate. I thought the, the type of flying they did and how they approached the actual mission, um, of course had a lot of liberties, but one thing that seems to be hard to capture on these types of things are the, the chess game that's going on while that type of flying is happening.

   2. LFLex Fridman1:40

      The chess game between, like in a dogfight between the, the, the pilots and the enemy, or between the different pilots?

   3. RGRyan Graves1:47

      I'll even speak to just that particular mission they flew there, and for that particular mission, it's kind of a chess game with yourself to, to get everything in place. So what kind of flight they flew is called a high threat scenario, which means they, uh, have to ingress low due to, uh, the surface-to-air threats, the integrated air defense systems that are nearby, and they have to ingress low and pop up like we see in the movie. And in that particular movie, that was a preplanned strike. They knew exactly where they were going. But there's a scenario where we have to operate in that type of environment and we don't know exactly where we're gonna strike or we're gonna be adapting to real-time targets. And so, in that scenario, you would have one of those fighters down low like that operating as a mission commander, as a forward air controller, and he's out there calling shots, joining on those other players in order to ensure they're pointed at the right target, so, so that's a bit of the chess game that he'll be playing.

   4. LFLex Fridman2:38

      Can you actually describe for people who haven't seen the movie, uh, what the mission actually is?

   5. RGRyan Graves2:43

      Yeah.

   6. LFLex Fridman2:43

      What's involved in the mission?

   7. RGRyan Graves2:45

      So, in this particular mission, it, it's kind of what we would call a preplanned strike. So there's a known location that's in a heavily defended area, uh, and the air crew, uh, in this case, I believe it was four F-18s, uh, on the initial package. Uh, their job was to ingress very low, down a canyon, to stay out of the radar window of the surface-to-air threats.

   8. LFLex Fridman3:06

      What does ingress mean?

   9. RGRyan Graves3:07

      Ingress means that they're going to be pushing from a start location towards a target, or the objective. So there's an ingress portion of the mission and an egress portion of the mission.

   10. LFLex Fridman3:16

       Oh, the... (laughs) Okay. Uh, like the entrance and the exit-

   11. RGRyan Graves3:20

       Correct.

   12. LFLex Fridman3:20

       ... type of thing. Got it.

   13. RGRyan Graves3:22

       But it changes our mindset tactically quite a bit, right? 'Cause when we're entering someplace, we have the option to enter, but when we go drop a bomb on a location, we're exiting, uh, we don't have that luxury. We don't have that option. And so it actually changes our tactics and our aggression level.

   14. LFLex Fridman3:37

       Got it. And so they were flying low to the ground and then there's, uh, surface-to-air missiles-

   15. RGRyan Graves3:43

       Mm-hmm.

   16. LFLex Fridman3:43

       ... that forced them to have to fly low. Is that a realistic thing?

   17. RGRyan Graves3:48

       It is realistic. So driving those aircraft in the clutter, uh, you know, all radar systems, or most I should say, are essentially line of sight, and so they're gonna be limited by the horizon or any clutter out there. And even a number of radars, if they are located up high and looking down towards that aircraft, um, the clutter, all the, uh, the objects such as trees and canyons, um, can have effect on radar systems. And so it can be a type of camouflage.

   18. LFLex Fridman4:16

       So that's a camouflage for the radar, but what about the surface-to-air missile? Is that, is that a legitimate way to, (laughs) to avoid missiles is fly solo? Like fly, I guess, below their, uh, their level?

   19. RGRyan Graves4:31

       As far as I know, you know, you can fly under any radar right now. Um, we don't have necessarily radars that can look through anything, so there is always gonna be the ability to mask yourself. Um, but with a larger number of assets and distributive communication networks, where those radars are looking makes all the difference. And I said they were ingressing past an IADS, and that's an integrated air defense system, and that linking of, uh, air defense systems is what makes it, um, so hard, so complicated is that the sensors and the weapons are disassociated from each other so that if you took out the target that was shooting at you, it still has the ability to, to, um, to intercept you from another radar location. So it's distributed and it, it's stronger that way.

   20. LFLex Fridman5:14

       You mean the, the surface-to-air missiles, if you d- like it's a, uh, it's a distributive system in that if you take out one, they're still able to sort of integrate information about your location and strike at you?

   21. RGRyan Graves5:28

       Correct. And there's a lot of complication that can go, you know, once we start thinking about distributive systems like that and the ability to self-heal and repair and adapt to, um, losses. It's an interesting area.

   22. LFLex Fridman5:39

       Are you responsible for thinking about that when you're flying an airplane?

   23. RGRyan Graves5:43

       To some degree. Um, when we ingress to an area like that, we're presented with, um, information about targets, air-to-air or air-to-surface, uh, or surface-to-air I should say. Uh, and we can essentially see where, um, essentially the danger zone, if you will, uh, is located.... uh, and so essentially we would stay out of that. And so having a full picture of, um, the environment is extremely important because, you know, at the end of the day, if we go in that circle, we can die pretty quickly. So, it's absolutely crucial.

   24. LFLex Fridman6:12

       So there's regions that have higher and lower danger based on your understanding of the actual... whatever the- the- the- the surface to air missiles systems are. So you can kind of know. That's interesting. I wonder how automated that could be too, especially when you don't know... It seems like in the movie they knew the location of everything.

   25. RGRyan Graves6:32

       Mm-hmm.

   26. LFLex Fridman6:32

       Um, I imagine that's less known in most cases. And also a lot of those systems might be a little bit more ghetto, if I can use that technical term. Like, um, I've- I've gotten, um, ad hoc maybe is the, uh, is- is the (laughs) ...

   27. RGRyan Graves6:48

       (laughs)

   28. LFLex Fridman6:48

       I don't know. But, you know, having, uh, just recently visited Ukraine and seen a lot of aspects of the way that war is fought, there's a lot of improvised type of systems. So you take height, uh, high tech, like advanced technology, but the way you deploy it and the way you organize it is very improvised and ad hoc and is responding to the uncertainty in the dynamic environment. And so from an enemy perspective or whoever is trying to deal with that kind of system, it's hard to figure it out because, uh... It's like me, I played tennis for a long time and it's always easier to play, this is true for all sports, uh, play tennis against a good tennis player versus a crappy tennis player, because the crappy tennis player is full of uncertainty.

   29. RGRyan Graves7:31

       Mm-hmm.

   30. LFLex Fridman7:32

       Uh, and that's really difficult to deal with. It seemed like in the movie the systems were really well organized, uh, and so you could plan.
3. 14:23 – 1:01:50

   Fighter jets

   1. RGRyan Graves14:23

      dichotomy there.

   2. LFLex Fridman14:24

      What's the best airplane ever made, fighter jet ever made?

   3. RGRyan Graves14:27

      I know the aviators in the, in the audience are gonna hate my answer because they're gonna want that sexy, you know, muscly F-14 Tomcat type fighter or, or maybe P-51 type aircraft, but the F-35 is maybe not the best dogfighter, but it doesn't have to get in a dogfight, right? It's like how you'd be the best knife fighter is not getting in a knife fight sometimes.

   4. LFLex Fridman14:49

      Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. It looks pretty sexy.

   5. RGRyan Graves14:53

      There's two real strengths you can have as a fighter. You can, you can have the ability to kind of outmuscle your fighter, uh, your, your opponent and beat them on Gs and power and rate around on them, and then there's the other side of that which is, uh, you can be overly maneuverable. Uh, you can bleed energy quickly. And that's what the F thir- F-18 was good at, because it had to be heavier to land on an aircraft carrier, we had to give it extra bulk, but it also needed special mechanisms to slow down enough to land on an aircraft carrier, and so it made it very maneuverable. And what that leads to a lot of times the ability to get maybe the first shot, uh, in a fight, um, which is very good, but if you do make that sharp turn, you're gonna bleed a lot of your energy away and be more susceptible for follow-on shots if that one's less susceptible. And so there's this kind of aggression, non-aggression game you can play depending on the type of aircraft you're fighting.

   6. LFLex Fridman15:40

      Where does the F-35 land on that spectrum?

   7. RGRyan Graves15:43

      The F-35 lands somewhere behind the F-22s. (laughs) So there'll probably be a row of F-22s or F-18s and F-35 will be out back, but it'll be enabling a lot of the warfare that's happening in front of it.

   8. LFLex Fridman15:53

      Is it one of the more expensive planes because of all the stuff on it?

   9. RGRyan Graves15:57

      It certainly is, yeah.

   10. LFLex Fridman16:00

       In the movie they have Tom Cruise fly it over mach 10, so maybe can you say what are the different speeds, accelerations feel like mach, mach 1, 2, 3 or hypersonic? Have you ever flown hypersonic?

   11. RGRyan Graves16:14

       No. Um-

   12. LFLex Fridman16:15

       Is it get... How tough does it get?

   13. RGRyan Graves16:18

       I'm just gonna call out the, the BS of ejecting at mach 10, just for the record, 'cause-

   14. LFLex Fridman16:22

       It's, it is-

   15. RGRyan Graves16:22

       ... in the movie. Uh-

   16. LFLex Fridman16:23

       Yeah.

   17. RGRyan Graves16:23

       ... there's been, I think, at least one ejection that was supersonic. Uh, and I'll just say, you know, it was not pretty but he survived. Um, so there would have, have to be some interesting mechanisms to eject successfully at mach 10, but I'll digress on that for the moment.

   18. LFLex Fridman16:36

       Yeah, that seemed very strange.

   19. RGRyan Graves16:37

       And he just walked away from it, but anyway, so, you know-

   20. LFLex Fridman16:40

       He s- he seemed disheveled. (laughs)

   21. RGRyan Graves16:44

       (laughs) . Yeah.

   22. LFLex Fridman16:44

       Okay. But it's, it's Tom Cruise, you don't... It's, it's like, uh, Chuck Norris or something.

   23. RGRyan Graves16:47

       Indestructible, yeah.

   24. LFLex Fridman16:48

       Indestructible.

   25. RGRyan Graves16:48

       Also doesn't age.

   26. LFLex Fridman16:49

       Yeah. Uh, but anyway, so what, um, what's interesting to say about the experience of ma- uh, of the, as you go up?

   27. RGRyan Graves16:58

       Mm-hmm.

   28. LFLex Fridman16:58

       Does it get more and more difficult?

   29. RGRyan Graves17:00

       In the end of the day, crossing the sound barrier is much like crossing the speed limit on the highway. You don't really notice anything. Um, when... To cross that, at least an F-18, because we have a lot more weight than most fighters, is typically we'll do that in a descent, uh, and we'll do that at full afterburner, uh, just dumping gas into the engine. Um, and so that'll get us over, the fastest I think I've gone was about 1.28. Uh, but what's interesting people don't realize is that if I take that throttle and I'm in afterburner and I just bring it back and... Just bring it back to mil, which is full power, just not afterburner, the de-acceleration is so strong due to the air friction that it throw you forward in your straps. Almost, you know, I would say, you know, maybe like 70% as strong almost as, as trapping on the boat. It's pretty strong. Um, so it's almost like a reverse car crash just for the de-acceleration. So the acceleration, you know, is usually kind of slow and you don't feel anything of course when you're crossing through it, but the de-acceleration is pretty violent.

   30. LFLex Fridman17:53

       The deceleration is violent, huh? Okay. Uh, but is there, is there a fundamental difference between like mach 1 and hypersonic mach 5 and so on?
4. 1:01:50 – 1:28:18

   UFO sightings

   1. RGRyan Graves1:01:50

   2. LFLex Fridman1:01:50

      So let's jump around a little bit, but (laughs) let me ask you about this one set of experiences that you had and people in your squadron had. So you and a few people in the squadron either detected UFOs on your instruments or saw them directly. Tell me the full story of these UFO sightings and, uh, to the smallest technical details 'cause I love those.

   3. RGRyan Graves1:02:11

      (laughs) I'll do my best. So we returned from... and when I say we, I mean, my, not my squadron, but VFA-11, the Red Rippers. Uh, I was a, a somewhat junior pilot at the time. I joined them on deployment in 2012, where they had been already out there for about six months or so, um, operating in the vicinity of Afghanistan. Uh, I joined them and then we, we flew back and still as a, a relatively new guy, we came back and we entered, uh, what's considered a maintenance phase where we slow down the tactical flying a bit, uh, kind of recuperate, do some maintenance on the aircraft, and our particular model of the F-18, the lot, the lot number, uh, was plumbed, uh, for the particular things that were needed to upgrade the radar from what's known as the APG-73 to the APG-79. And the APG-73 is a mechanically, uh, scanned array radar. Uh, it's a, you know, perfectly fine radar, but the ACER radar is kind of a, a, you know, magnitude jump in capability, kind of a, an analog digital kind of mindset.

   4. LFLex Fridman1:03:20

      Got it.

   5. RGRyan Graves1:03:20

      So-

   6. LFLex Fridman1:03:20

      So it's a leap to digital, uh, APG-73/79. Are these things on a, a carrier? Like, what are we talking about here?

   7. RGRyan Graves1:03:27

      This is our-

   8. LFLex Fridman1:03:28

      How big is the radar?

   9. RGRyan Graves1:03:29

      Yeah. So this is actually the radars in the F-18 itself.

   10. LFLex Fridman1:03:32

       Okay. So when you say they were chosen, this is to test, uh, the upgrade to the new, the 79, APG-79.

   11. RGRyan Graves1:03:40

       Less of an, uh, test and more of just, "Hey, it's your turn to get the upgrade." Like, we're all going to these better radars. Um, they were building ones off the, off the line with the new radar, but we were this weird transitionary squadron in the middle that transitioned from the older ones to the new ones. But it's not particularly rare to fly with different types of radar 'cause in the, in we call the fleet replacement squadron, essentially the training ground for the F-18, you have all sorts of F-18s with different radars. So, um, you are used to having multiple ones, but in the actual deployable c- combat squadron, um, we upgraded. And when we upgraded, we saw that there were objects on the radar that we were seeing the next day in, in this, with this new radar that weren't there with the old radar. And these were sometimes, you know, the same day you might go on two flights. The one in the morning might be with the older radar, the one in the evening with the new radar, and you, and you'd see the objects with the, with the new radar. And that's not overly surprising in some sense. Uh, they are more sensitive. Uh, perhaps they're not filtering out everything they should be yet, or perhaps there's some other type of error. Uh, maybe it needs to be calibrated, whatever. It, it was relatively new, and we were somewhat used to there being software problems with these types of things occasionally, just like anything else. And so, okay, maybe this is a, a, a radar software malfunction. We're getting some false tracks, as we call them. Um...

   12. LFLex Fridman1:05:02

       What were you seeing?

   13. RGRyan Graves1:05:04

       And so what we would see are representations of the object. So this is off of our radar. We're not seeing a visual image here. This is kind of like a, what's being displayed to us almost like in a gaming fashion, right? Like our, the icon, right? So the icon is showing us that, "Hey, something is there, and here's the parameters I can understand about it."

   14. LFLex Fridman1:05:21

       So this is in the cockpit. There's a display that's showing, um, some visualization, what the radar is detecting.

   15. RGRyan Graves1:05:27

       Correct. And there's two different ways to do that. The first one is like the actual data, like the, the radar where, um, I am, it's showing me the data kind of as if it's in front of me and I'm selecting those contexts. And there's another screen called the situational awareness page, and that's kind of a God's eye view that brings all that data into one spot. And so, uh, I'm gonna talk about this from the SA page, from the situational awareness page versus the individual radar ones 'cause it's easier. But, so-

   16. LFLex Fridman1:05:55

       Can you... Sorry, sorry to linger on that. So the individual displays are like first person and then the SA is... When you say God's eye view is like from the top, the integration of all that information as if it's looking down onto the earth?

   17. RGRyan Graves1:06:11

       Yes.

   18. LFLex Fridman1:06:12

       Is that a good way to summarize it or no?

   19. RGRyan Graves1:06:13

       It is. But for the aviator, it's slightly different because those two radar displays I talked about are, at the bottom of that display is kind of representative of where I am. And so-

   20. LFLex Fridman1:06:22

       Got it.

   21. RGRyan Graves1:06:22

       ... I see what's in front of me.

   22. LFLex Fridman1:06:23

       Got it.

   23. RGRyan Graves1:06:24

       Whereas the situational awareness page, uh, the aircraft is located in the center of that. And then, uh, all around me, you know, based off of the data link and wherever I'm getting information from, uh, I can see that whole awareness page. I can see all the situation. So, um, I'm gonna kind of talk about this from the situational awareness page, which is a top-down view, just to kind of frame our minds instead of jumping around. And so what we would see out there is we'd see these indications that something would be there, and they would have a track file. That track file, that thing that represents the object has a line coming out of it. And that represents, it's called the target aspect indicator.

   24. LFLex Fridman1:07:00

       Mm-hmm.

   25. RGRyan Graves1:07:01

       Um, and then-

   26. LFLex Fridman1:07:01

       So there's some tracking from the radar.

   27. RGRyan Graves1:07:03

       Correct. So it's showing you where the object's going.

   28. LFLex Fridman1:07:05

       This is all pretty cool that the radar can do all this.

   29. RGRyan Graves1:07:07

       Let's see-

   30. LFLex Fridman1:07:07

       So radar locks in on d- different objects and then tracks them over time.

Episode duration: 2:32:00