Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine | Lex Fridman Podcast #289

Kotkin rejects the idea of “eternal Russian imperialism,” arguing that Russian leaders repeatedly choose coercive modernization and personalist rule to close an unbridgeable gap with the West—choices that often worsen Russia’s position.

He dismantles realist and Oliver Stone–style arguments that Putin was “forced” to invade, citing international treaties Russia signed affirming states’ right to choose alliances and analogizing such arguments to excusing a rapist because of a victim’s clothing.

Ukraine, though corrupt, had real elections, a functioning parliament, an open public sphere, and relatively free media, whereas Russia’s centralized autocracy suppresses political alternatives and systematically targets journalists and opponents.

Limited sanctions after Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbas (2014), and repeated Western financial, energy, and reputational entanglement with Russian elites convinced the Kremlin that further aggression would again incur only symbolic costs.

The unexpectedly effective Ukrainian military and Zelenskyy’s leadership revealed that the world remains West-dominated institutionally and militarily, and their sacrifice helped push Europe and the U.S. away from dependence and appeasement toward serious support.