Lex Fridman PodcastTim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics | Lex Fridman Podcast #360
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,009 words- 0:00 – 2:16
Introduction
- TUTim Urban
... of radical, um, political movement, of which there will always be a lot in the country, has managed to do something that, um, radical movements are not supposed to be able to do in the US, which is they've managed to hijack institutions all across the country and hijack medical journals-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... and universities, and, you know, the ACLU, you know, saying all the, you know, activist organizations and nonprofits and many tech companies. And the way I view a liberal democracy is, it isn't. It is, is a bunch of these institutions that were, that were trial and error crafted over h- you know, hundreds of years, and they all rely on trust, public trust, and a certain kind of feeling of unity that, that actually is critical to a liberal democracy's functioning.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
And what I see this thing is, is as a parasite on that, that whose goal is, and I'm not saying each indi- by the way, each individual in this is, I don't think they're bad people. I think that it's, it's the ideology itself has the property of its goal is to tear apart the pretty delicate workings of the liberal democracy and shred the critical lines of trust.
- LFLex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Tim Urban, his second time on the podcast. He's the author and illustrator of the amazing blog called Wait But Why?, and is the author of a new book coming out tomorrow called What's Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies. We talk a lot about this book in this podcast, but you really do need to get it and experience it for yourself. It is a fearless, insightful, hilarious, and I think important book in this divisive time that we live in. The Kindle version, the audiobook, and the web version should be all available on day of publication. I should also mention that my face might be a bit more beat up than usual. I got hit in the chin, uh, pretty good since I've been getting back into, uh, training jujitsu, a sport I love very much, after recovering from an injury. So if you see marks on my face during these intros or conversations, you know that, uh, um, my life is in a pretty good place. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description, and now, dear friends, here's Tim Urban.
- 2:16 – 18:15
Human history
- LFLex Fridman
You wrote an incredible book called What's Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies. In the beginning, you, uh, present this view of, uh, human history as a thousand-page book where each page is 250 years, and it's a brilliant visualization because almost nothing happens for most of it. So what blows your mind most about that visualization when you just sit back and think about it?
- TUTim Urban
It's a boring book. So 950 pages, 95% of the book, hunter-gatherers kinda doing their thing. I'm sure there's, you know, there's some, there's obviously some major cognitive and advancements along the way and language, and I'm sure, you know, the bow and arrow comes around at some point, you know, so, so, so tiny things but it's like, oh, now we have 400 pages till the next thing. Then you get to page 950 and things start moving.
- LFLex Fridman
Recorded history starts at 976.
- TUTim Urban
Right, right.
- LFLex Fridman
So basically the bottom row is when anything interesting happens, there's a bunch of agriculture for a while before we know anything about it, and then recorded history starts.
- TUTim Urban
Yeah, 25 pages of actual, like recorded history. So when we think of prehistoric, we're talking about pages one through 975...
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... of the book. Uh, and then history is page, you know, 976 to 1,000. If you're reading the book, it would be like epilogue AD, you know, the last little ten pages of the book. When we think of AD is super long, right? 2,000 years, the Roman Empire 2,000 years ago, like that's so long.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
Human history has been going on for over 2,000 centuries. Like that is, it's just, it's hard to wrap your head around. Um, and this is, I mean even that's just the end of a very long road, like you know, uh, the 100,000 years before that, it's not like, you know, it's not like that was that different. So it's just, there's been people like us, that have emotions like us, that have physical sensations like us, um, for, for so, so long, and who, who are they all and what was their life like and it's, you know, I, I think we have no idea what it was like to be them. The, the thing that's craziest about the people of the far past is not just that they had different lives, they had different fears, they had different dangers and different responsibilities and they lived in tribes and everything, but they didn't know anything. Like, we just take it for granted that we're born on top of this tower of knowledge and from the very beginning we, we know that the Earth is a ball floating in space, um, and we know that we're going to die one day, and we know that, um, you know, we evolved from animals and, you know, all the-
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
Those were all, like, incredible, you know, epiphanies quite recently and the people a long time ago they just had no idea what was going on and like, I'm kinda jealous 'cause I feel like i- I mean it might have been scary to not know what's going on but it also, I feel like would be, you'd have a sense of awe and wonder all the time and, and you don't know what's gonna happen next and it's, once you learn you're kinda like, "Ugh," that's like, it's a little grim.
- LFLex Fridman
But they probably had the same capacity for consciousness to experience the world, to wonder about the world, maybe to construct narratives about the world and myths and so on. They just had less grounded systematic facts to play with. They still probably felt the narratives, the myths, they constructed as intensely as we do.
- TUTim Urban
No, yeah. They also fell in love.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
They also had friends and they had falling outs with friends.
- LFLex Fridman
They didn't shower much though. The shower thing was not a thing.
- TUTim Urban
No, they did not smell nice. Uh...
- LFLex Fridman
Maybe they did.
- TUTim Urban
(laughs)
- LFLex Fridman
Maybe beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
- TUTim Urban
Yeah.
- LFLex Fridman
Maybe it's all like relative.
- TUTim Urban
So how about, how many people in history have experienced a hot shower?
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
Like almost none. That's like, when were hot showers invented, 100 years ago? Like less? Um, so like, like George Washington never had a hot shower-... it's, it's like, it just kinda weird. Like he sh- he, he took cold showers all the time or like-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... um, and again, we just take this for granted, but that's like an unbelievable life experience to have, uh, rain rai- a controlled little booth where it rains hot water on your head. And then you get out, and it's not everywhere, it's like contained. Um, that was like, you know, they, uh, uh, a lot of people probably lived and died with n- never experiencing hot water. Maybe they, they had a way to heat water over a fire, but like then it's, I don't know. It's just like there's a l- there's so many things about our lives now that are complete and it could... just total anomaly.
- LFLex Fridman
It makes me wonder like what is the thing they would notice the most. I mean, the sewer system, like it doesn't smell in cities. It's-
- TUTim Urban
Incredible.
- 18:15 – 26:04
Greatest people in history
- LFLex Fridman
uh, patriotism. We- we got- we gotta zoom out 'cause this- this graphic is epic. A- a lot of images in your book are just epic on their own. It's brilliantly done. But this one has, uh, famous people for each of the cards. (laughs) Like the best of-
- TUTim Urban
Yeah.
- LFLex Fridman
... uh, for you- for-
- TUTim Urban
And by the way, good for them to be the person-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... that, that... Uh, it's not that I could have chosen lots of people for each card, but I think most people would agree, you know, that's a pretty fair choice for each, each page. And to... Good for them to be a... You know, you did, you crushed it if you can be the person for your whole 250-year page, so.
- LFLex Fridman
Well, I noticed you put Gandhi, you didn't put Hitler. I mean, there's a lot of people who are gonna argue with you about that particular last page.
- TUTim Urban
True. Yes, you're right. I could have, I could have put in... I- I actually, I was thinking about Darwin there too.
- LFLex Fridman
Darwin, yeah.
- TUTim Urban
Um, but-
- LFLex Fridman
Einstein.
- TUTim Urban
... yeah, I... Exactly. You really coulda put anyone.
- LFLex Fridman
Did you think about putting yourself for a second?
- TUTim Urban
Yeah, I should have.
- LFLex Fridman
(laughs)
- TUTim Urban
I should have. That would have been awesome. Uh, I'm sure that would have endeared the readers to me from right, from the beginning (laughs) of the first page of the book. Uh-
- LFLex Fridman
Uh, a little bit of a messianic complex going on. But yeah, so the list of people, just so you know, so these are 250-year chunks-
- TUTim Urban
Yeah.
- LFLex Fridman
... the last one being from 1770 to 2020. And so it goes Gandhi, Shakespeare, Joan of Arc, Genghis Khan, Charlemagne, Muhammad, Constantine, Jesus, Cleopatra, Aristotle, Buddha. It's so interesting to think about this very recent human history.
- TUTim Urban
That's 11 pages, so it would be-
- LFLex Fridman
11 pages.
- TUTim Urban
... 2,750, almost 3,000 years.
- LFLex Fridman
Just that there's these figures that stand out and that define the course of human history. And if-
- TUTim Urban
It's like the cra- the craziest thing to me is that, like, Buddha was a dude.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
He was a guy-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... with, like, arms (laughs) and legs and fingernails that he maybe bit and, like, he liked certain foods, and maybe he got, like, uh, you know, he had, like, digestive issues sometimes-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... and, like, he got cuts and they stung.
- 26:04 – 32:46
Social media
- LFLex Fridman
but let's look at now, let's look at, I'm sure we'll talk about social media. So, who are the k- key players in social media? Uh, Mark Zuckerberg. What's the name of the MySpace guy? Tom?
- TUTim Urban
Tom. It's (laughs) just Tom, yeah.
- LFLex Fridman
(laughs) Um, there's a meme going around where, like, MySpace is, like, the perfect social media 'cause no algorithmic involvement, everybody's happy and positive and so-
- TUTim Urban
But see, also Tom did it right.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
At the time, we were like, "Oh, man. Tom only made like a few million dollars. Oof."
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
"He sh- sucks to not be Zuck." Tom might be living a nice life right now-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... where he doesn't have this en- nightmare that these other people have.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah. And he's always smiling in his profile picture.
- TUTim Urban
(laughs) He looks (laughs)
- LFLex Fridman
(laughs) And then so there's like Larry Page, so with Google, that's kind of intermingled into that whole thing, into the development of the internet, Jack Dorsey, now Elon, um, who else? I mean, there's people playing with the evolution of social media and to me, that seems to be connected to the development of AI and it seems like those singular figures will define the direction of AI development and social media development, with social media seeming to have such a huge impact on our collective intelligence of our species.
- TUTim Urban
It does feel in one way, like, individuals have an especially big impact right now-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... in that a small number of people are pulling some big levers. Um, and, you know, there can be a little meeting of three people at Facebook and they s- come out, and they come in, they come out of that meeting and make a decision that totally changes the world, right? On the other hand, you see a lot of, a lot of conformity. You see a lot of gr- you know, they all pulled the plug on Trump the same day, right? So, that suggests that there's some bigger force that is also kind of driving them, in which case, it's less about the individuals. I, I think, you know, this is u- what, you know, what is leadership, right? I mean, to me, leadership is the ability to move things in a direction that the cultural forces are not already taking things, right? A lot of times people seem like a leader because they're just kind of hopping on the cultural wave and they happen to be the person who gets to the top of it, now it seems like they're... But actually the, the, the wave was already going. Like, real leadership is when, um, is, is when someone actually changes the, the wave, changes the shape of the wave. Like, I think Elon with, you know, SpaceX-
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... and, and with Tesla, like, genuinely, like, shaped a wave. You know, maybe you could say that EVs were actually, like, they were gonna happen anyway, but it, it's, there's no, there's not much evidence about at least happening when it did. Uh, you know, if we end up on Mars, you know, you can, you can say that Elon was a genuine, like, leader there. And so there are examples. Now, like, Zuckerberg definitely has done a lot of leadership along the way. He's also, um, p- potentially kind of like caught in a, a storm that is happening and, you know, he's one of the figures in it. So, I, I don't know.
- LFLex Fridman
And it's possible that he is a big shaper if the Metaverse becomes a reality, if in 30 years we're all living in a virtual world. To many people it seems ridiculous now. That, that, that was a poor investment.
- TUTim Urban
Well, he talked about getting, you know, 10, you know, I think it was something like a billion people with, um, a VR headset in their pocket in by, you know, I think it was 10 years from now back in 2015. So, we're, we're h- we're behind that. But when I, he was talking about that a- and honestly, I, I, this is something I've been wrong about 'cause I, I went to, like, one of the Facebook conferences and tried out all the new Oculus stuff, and I was like, you know, pretty early talking to some of the, you know, major players there 'cause I was gonna write a big post about it that then got swallowed by this book. But-
- LFLex Fridman
(laughs)
- TUTim Urban
... um, but I would have been wrong in the post because in, what I would have said was that this thing is... You know, 'cause w- when I tried it, I was like, this is, you know, some of them b- suck. Some of them make you nauseous and they're just not that, you know, you know, and you have the headsets were big and, you know. But I was like, the times when this is good, it is... I have this feeling I haven't had... It reminds me of the feeling I had when I first, was five and I went to a friend's house and he had Nintendo.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
And I, and, and he gave me the controller and I was looking at the screen and I pressed the button and Mario jumped and I said-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... I said, "I can make the something on the screen move." And the same feeling I had the first time someone showed me how to send an email, it was like really early and he's like, "You can send this." And I was like, "It goes, I can press enter on my computer and something happens on your computer." Those were obviously, you know, when you have that feeling, it often means you're, you're witnessing a paradigm shift. And I thought, this is one of those things, and I still kinda think it is but it's, it's kinda weird that it hasn't, you know, like, where, where's the VR revolution, like?
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah, I'm surprised 'cause I'm, I'm with you. My first and still instinct is this feels like it changes everything.... VR. It feels like-
- TUTim Urban
Totally.
- LFLex Fridman
... it changes everything, but it's not changing anything. And I-
- TUTim Urban
Like a dumb part of my brain is genuinely convinced that that's real.
- 32:46 – 44:16
Good times and bad times
- LFLex Fridman
you write, "More technology means better good times, but it also means badder bad times. And the scary thing is, if the good and bad keep exponentially growing, it doesn't matter how great the good times become. If the bad gets to a certain level of bad, it's all over for us." Can you elaborate on this? Why, why is there, why does the bad have a- that property? That if it's all exponentially getting more powerful that the bad is gonna win in the end? Was, am I misinterpreting that into what you have?
- TUTim Urban
No. So the first thing is, I, I noticed a trend, which was like, the centuries, the good is getting better every century. Like the 20th century was the best century yet in terms of prosperity, in terms of GDP per capita, in terms of life expectancy, in terms of poverty and disease. Uh, e- every metric that matters, the 20th century was incredible. It also had the biggest wars in history, the biggest genocide in history, the biggest existential threat yet with nuclear weapons, right? I mean, the, it, the Depression was, you know, probably as big an economic... So it's this interesting thing where the stakes are getting higher in both directions.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
And so the question is like, if you get enough good, does that protect you against the bad, right? The, the, uh, the, the, the dream, and I do think this is possible too, is the good gets so good. You know, have you ever read the Culture series, the Iain Banks books?
- LFLex Fridman
Not yet, but I get criticized on a daily basis by s- some of the mutual folks we know for not having done so.
- TUTim Urban
Yeah. Well, that's, that's-
- LFLex Fridman
And I feel like a lesser man for it. Yes, I need to change.
- TUTim Urban
So that, that, that, that's how I got onto it, and I read six of the 10 books. Um, and they're great. But the thing I love about them is, like, it just paints one of these futuristic societies where the good has, has gotten so good that the bad is no, no longer even an issue. Like, basically, and, and the way that this, this works is the AI, you know, the AIs, um, are benevolent, and they control everything. And so, like there's one random anecdote where they're like, you know, m- what happens if you murder someone in, 'cause there's still, you know, there's still people with rage and jealousy or whatever, so, so if someone murders someone, um, first of all, that person's backed up. So it's like they have to get a new body, and it's, it's annoying.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
But it's like, it's, it's not death. And secondly, that person, what are they gonna do, put them in jail? No, no, no. They're just gonna send a slap drone around, which is this little, like, tiny, you know, random drone that just will float around next to them forever, and by the way, kind of be their servant. Like, it's kind of fun to have a slap drone, but it's just making sure that they never do anything again. And it's like, I was like, ah, man. It could just be, everyone could be so safe and everything could be so, like, you know, eh, you, you want a house, you know, the, the AIs will build you a house. There's endless space. There's endless resources. So I do think that that could be part of our future. That's part of what excites me is like there is... Look, today would seem like a utopia to Thomas Jefferson, right? Thomas Jefferson's world would seem like a utopia to a caveman.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
There is a future, and by the way, these are happening faster, these jumps.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
Right? So the thing that would seem like a utopia to us we could experience in our own lifetimes, right? Like, it's especially if, you know, life extension, you get, combines with exponential progress. Um, I want to get there, and I think w- if, if, in that, part of what makes it utopia is you don't have to be as scared of the, the, the worst bad guy in the world trying to do the worst damage because we have protection. But that said, um, I'm not sure how that happens. Like, it's, it's, that's, it's easier, easier said than done. Nick Bostrom uses the example of if nuclear weapons could be manufactured by microwaving sand, for example-
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... we probably would be in the Stone Age right now because .001% of people would love to destroy all of humanity, right? Some 16-year-old with huge mental health problems who right now goes and shoots up a school would say, "Oh, even better. I'm going to blow up a city." And now suddenly, there's copycats, right? And so that's, like, as our technology grows, it's going to be easier for the worst bad guys to do in- tremendous damage. And it's easier to destroy than to build, so it takes a tiny, tiny number of these people.... with enough power to do bad. So that, to me, I'm like, the stakes are going up because the- the- the- what we have to lose is this incredible utopia, but also, like, dystopia is real. It happens. The Romans ended up in a dystopia they probably earlier thought that was never possible. Like, we should not get cocky.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
And so to me that- that- that trend is the exponential tech is a double edged sword. It's so exciting. I'm happy to be alive now overall because I- I'm an optimist, and I find it exciting, but it's really scary and we- and- and- and the- the- the- the dumbest thing we can do is not be scared. The dumbest thing we can do is get cocky and think, well, my life is always, the last couple of generations everything's been fine. Stop that.
- LFLex Fridman
What's your gut? What percentage of trajectories take us towards the, a- as you put, unimaginably good future versus unimaginably bad future? This is like, are you, as- as an optimist...
- TUTim Urban
It's really hard to know. I mean, it- it, all I, you know, one of the things we can do is look at history. And on one hand, there's a lot of stories. I'm actually listening to a great podcast right now called The Fall of Civilizations, um, and it's literally every episode is like, you know, a little, little like two hour deep dive into some civilization. Some are really famous like the Roman Empire, some are more obscure like the- the- the Norse in Greenland.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
But, um, but- and it's- so each one is so interesting, but what's, it's, I mean, there's a lot of civilizations that had their peak. There's always the peak, right, when they're thriving and they're at their max size and- and- and they have their waterways and they have their... It's civilized and it's representative and it's fair and whatever, not- not always, but it's- it's, uh, the peak is a great... You know, if I could go back in time, you know, it's not that you, you know, the farther you go back, the worse it gets. No, no, no. You want to go back to a civilization during... I would go to the Roman Empire in the year 100. Sounds great, right? You don't want to go to the Roman Empire in the year 400.
- LFLex Fridman
We might be in the peak right now here, whatever this empire is.
- TUTim Urban
Yeah, so honestly, I- I think about like the '80s, you know, the '70s, the '80s-
- LFLex Fridman
Oh, here we go, the music...
- TUTim Urban
... the- the- the '90s. No, no, I hate the '80s.
- LFLex Fridman
... was so much better.
- TUTim Urban
No, the '80s culture is so annoying. It's just like I'm- I'm- I'm, when I read, when I listen to these things, I'm thinking, you know, the '80s and '90s. America, the '90s was popular.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
People forget that now, like Clinton was pop- was a superstar around the world. Michael Jordan was exported internationally, then basketball was everywhere suddenly. You had like music, the sports, whatever. It was a little probably like the '50s, you know, coming out of the wo- the World War and the Depression before it, it was like this kind of like everyone was in a good mood kind of time, you know? It's like I finished a big project and it's Saturday. It was like... I feel like the '50s was kind of like everyone was having a, you know, the- the, um, '20s I feel like everyone was in a good mood randomly, um, then the- the '30s everyone was in a bad mood. Um, but the '90s I think we'll look back on it as a time when everyone was in a good mood and it was like, you know, again of course at the time it doesn't feel that way necessarily, but I look at that I'm like, maybe that was kind of America's peak and like may- no maybe not, but, like it's hasn't been popular since really worldwide. Um, it's- it's gone in and out depending on the country but, like, it hasn't reached that level of like America's awesome around the world, and the political, you know, situation has gotten, you know, really ugly and, you know, maybe it's social media, may- who knows? But I- I- I wonder if it'll ever be as simple and- and positive as it was then. Like maybe we are in the- in the, you know, it feels a little like maybe we're in the beginning of the downf- or not because- because these things don't just, it's not a perfect smooth hill. It goes up and down, up and down. So maybe we're, there's another big upcoming.
- 44:16 – 46:24
Wisdom vs stupidity
- LFLex Fridman
some, I think, wisdom, and you talk about this, can come with a false confidence, arrogance. I mean, you talk about this in the book. That's too easy-
- TUTim Urban
Well, that's not wisdom then. If- if you're being arrogant, you're being unwise.
- LFLex Fridman
Unwise.
- TUTim Urban
Yeah, I, you know, I think- I think wisdom is doing what people 100 years from now with the hindsight that we don't have would do if they could come back in time and they knew everything. It's like, how do we figure out how to have hindsight when we actually are not 100 in it?
- LFLex Fridman
What if stupidity is the thing that people from 100 years from now will see as wise?
- TUTim Urban
I mean-
- LFLex Fridman
Like The Idiot by Dostoevsky, being naïve and, uh, trusting everybody. Maybe that's what-
- TUTim Urban
Well, then you get lucky. Then- then- then- then- you- you know that, then maybe you get to a good a- a good future by stumbling upon it, um, but ideally you- you can get there, like, I think a lot of, we, uh, America, the great things about it have, are a product of the wisdom of previous Americans. You know, the Constitution was a pretty, you know, pretty wise system to set up.
- LFLex Fridman
There's not much stupid stumbling around? Well, there is, I mean, with Dostoevsky's, uh, The Idiot, Prince Myshkin in Brothers Karamazov, there's, uh, Alyosha Karamazov, you err on the side of love and almost like a naive trust in other human beings, and that turns out to be, at least in my perspective and long term for the success of the species is actually wisdom.
- TUTim Urban
It's a compass.
- LFLex Fridman
But we don't know. It's a compass, that's right.
- TUTim Urban
It's a compass when you- when you're in the fog-
- LFLex Fridman
In the fog.
- TUTim Urban
... it's a compass. Yeah.
- LFLex Fridman
Love is a compass.
- TUTim Urban
Okay, but- but here's the thing. So I think we should have, a compass is nice, but you know what else is nice? Is a flashlight in the fog that can help, you can't see that far, but you can see, oh, you can see four feet ahead instead of one foot, and that to me is discourse. That is open, vigorous, like, discussion in a culture that fosters that is how the species, is how the- the- the- the American citizens as a- as a unit can be as wise as possible, can maybe see four feet ahead instead of one foot ahead.
- LFLex Fridman
That said, Charles Bukowski said that love is a fog that fades with the first light of reality. So I don't know how that works out, but I feel like there's intermixing of metaphors that works.
- TUTim Urban
(laughs)
- LFLex Fridman
Okay,
- 46:24 – 1:00:33
Utopia
- LFLex Fridman
uh, you also write that, quote, "As the authors of The Story of Us," which is this 1,000-page book, "we have no mentors, no editors, no one to make sure it all turns out okay. It's all in our hands. This scares me, but it also gives me hope. If we can all get just a little wiser together, it may be enough to nudge the story onto a trajectory that points towards an unimaginably good future." Do you think we can possibly define what a good future looks like? I mean, this is, um, the problem with, that we ran into with communism of thinking of utopia, of having a deep confidence about what a utopian world looks like.
- TUTim Urban
Well, it's a deep confidence, that was a deep confidence about the instrumental way to get there. It was that, you know, I think a lot of us can agree that if everyone had everything they needed and we didn't have disease or poverty and people could live as long as they wanted to and choose when to die and there was no existential, major existential threat that we ... I think almost everyone can agree that would be great, that communism is a poten- that- that was, they said this is the way to get there, and that is, that- that's a different question, you know? So the- the- the unimaginably good future I'm pre- I'm picturing, I think a lot of people would picture, and I think most people would agree. Now, not everyone. There's a lot of people out there who would say humans are the scourge on the earth and we should de-growth or something, but I think a lot of people would agree that, you know, just again, take Thomas Jefferson, bring him here. He would see it as utopia for obvious reasons, for the- the- the medicine, the- the food, the transportation, um, just how, uh, the quality of life and the safety and all of that. So ex- extrapolate that forward for us. Now we're Thomas Jefferson, you know, what's the equivalent? That's what I'm talking about. And the- and the big question is, I actually don't, I- I don't try to say, here's the way to get there. Here's the actual specific way to get there. I try to say how do we have a flashlight so that we can together figure it out? Like, how- how do we give ourselves the best chance of figuring out the way to get there? And I think part of the problem with- with communists, um, and people, is, ideologues, is that they're- they're way too overconfident that they know the way to get there, there, and- and- and it's, it becomes a religion to them, this solution. And then you're not, you can't update once you have a solution as a religion, and so...
- LFLex Fridman
I felt a little violated when you said communists and stared deeply into my soul.
- TUTim Urban
(laughs)
- LFLex Fridman
Um, (laughs) in this book you've developed a framework for how to fix everything. Um, it's called the ladder. Can you explain it?
- TUTim Urban
Okay, it's not a framework for how to fix everything.
- LFLex Fridman
It's humor-
- TUTim Urban
I, I would never say that.
- LFLex Fridman
I'll explain it to Tim Urban at some point-
- TUTim Urban
Yeah, okay.
- LFLex Fridman
... how this humor thing works-
- TUTim Urban
Yeah, no.
- LFLex Fridman
But the framework of, uh, how to th- think about collaboration between humans such that we could fix things.
- TUTim Urban
I think it's a compass. It's like a, it's like a, it's a ruler that we can, once we look at it together and see what it is, we can all say, "Oh, we wanna go to that side of the ruler."
- LFLex Fridman
Sure.
- TUTim Urban
"Not this side." Um, and so it gives us direction to go.
- LFLex Fridman
And so what are the parts of the ladder?
- TUTim Urban
So I have these two characters. This orange guy, this primitive mind is, this is our software, that is the software that was in a 50,000 BC person's head-
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
... that was specifically optimized for, to help that person survive in that world, and not even, not just, not really survive, but help them pass their genes on in that world. Um, and civilization happened quickly, and brains change slowly. And so that unchanged dude is still running the show in our head. Um, and I use the example of, like, Skittles. Like, why do we eat Skittles? It's trash. It's obviously bad for you. And it's because the primitive mind in the world that it was programmed for, there was no Skittles, and he, it was just fruit, and, you know, and, and if there was a dense, chewy, sweet fruit like that, it meant you've just found like a calorie goldmine. Energy, energy, take it, take it, eat as much as you can. Gorge on it. Hopefully, you get a little fat. That would be the, the dream, and now we're so good with energy for a while, and we don't have to stress about it anymore. So today, Mars, Inc. is clever and says, "Let's not sell things to people's higher minds," who's the other character, "let's sell to people's primitive minds. Primitive minds are dumb, and let's trick them into thinking this is, this is this new, this, this thing you should eat, and then they'll eat it." And now Mars, Inc. is a huge company.
- LFLex Fridman
Actually, just to linger real quick, so you, you said primitive mind and higher mind, so those are the two things that make up this bigger mind that, uh, that is the modern human being?
- TUTim Urban
Yeah. It, it's like, you know, it's not perfect. Obviously, there's a lot of crossover. Um, there's people who will yell at me for saying there's two minds and, you know, that... But to me, it's, it's still a useful framework, where you have this software that has making decisions based on a world that you're not in anymore, and then you've got this other character. I call it the higher mind, and it's the part of you that knows that Skittles are not good, and can override the instinct. And the reason you don't always eat Skittles is 'cause the higher mind says, "No, no, no, we're not doing that, because that's bad, and I know that," right? Now, you can apply that to a lot of things. The higher mind is the one that knows I shouldn't procrastinate. The primitive mind is the one that wants to conserve energy-
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... and not do anything icky, and, you know, can't see the future, so he procrastinates. The, you know, you can apply this... No, I, in this book, apply it to, um, to how we form our beliefs is one of the ways, and then eventually to politics and political movements. But, like, if you think about wha- well, what's the equivalent of the Skittles tug of war in your head for how do you form your beliefs? Um, and it's that the primitive mind and the world that it was optimized for, um, it wanted to feel conviction about its beliefs. It wanted to be sure that it was, um, it wanted to feel conviction, and it wanted to agree with the people around there. It didn't want to stand out. It wanted to, to fervently agree with the tribe about the tribe's sacred beliefs, right? And so there's a big part of us that wants to do that, that, that, that doesn't like changing our mind. It feels like it's part of our... The primitive mind identifies with beliefs. It feels like it's a threat, a physical threat to you, to your primitive mind when you change your mind, or when someone disagrees with you in a smart way. So there's that huge force in us, which is confirmation bias. That's where that comes from. It's, it's this, this, this desire to keep believing what we believe, and this desire to also fit in with our beliefs, to believe what the people around us believe. And that can be fun in some ways. We all like the same sports team, and we're all super into it, and we're all gonna be biased about that call together. I mean, that, th- it's not always bad, but, um, it's not a very smart way to be, and it, you're actually, you're working kinda for those ideas. Those ideas are like your boss, and you're working so hard to keep believing those. Those ideas are, you know, a, a, a really good paper comes in that you read that, that, that conflicts with those ideas, and you will do all this work to say, "That paper's bullshit-"
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... because y- y- you, you're, you're a, a faithful employee of those ideas. Now, the higher mind, to me, the same part of you that can override the Skittles can override this and can s- and can search for something that makes a lot more sense, which is truth. Uh, 'cause what rational being wouldn't want to know the truth? Who wants to be delusional? And so there's this tug of war because the higher mind doesn't identify with ideas. Why would you? It's an experiment you're doing, and it's a mental model, and if someone can come over and say, "You're wrong," you'd say, "Where? Where? Show me, show me." And if they point out something that is wrong, you'd say, "Oh, thanks. Oh, good, I just got a little smarter," right? You're not gonna identify with the thing. Go, yeah, kick it. See if you can break it. If you can break it, it's not that good, right? So there's both of these in our heads, and there's this tug of war between them, uh, and sometimes, you know, if, if you're telling me about something with AI, I'm probably gonna think with my higher mind 'cause I'm not identified with it. But if you go and you criticize the ideas in this book or you criticize my religious beliefs, or you criticize, I might have a harder time 'cause the primitive mind says, "No, no, no. Those are our e- special ideas." And so yeah, so that's, that's one way to use this ladder, is like it's a spectrum. You know, at the top, the higher mind is doing all the thinking, and then as you go down, it becomes more of a tug of war, and at the bottom, the primitive mind is in total control.
- LFLex Fridman
And this is distinct, as you show, from the spectrum of ideas. So this is how you think versus what you think, and those are distinct. Those are different dimensions. Uh-
- TUTim Urban
We, we need, we need a vertical axis. We have all these horizontal axes, left, right, center, or, you know, the, you know, this opinion all the way to this opinion, but it's like what's much more important than y-... where you stand is how you got there, right? And how you think. So this helps if, if, if I can say this person's kind of on the left or on the right, but they're up high, I think. I think, in other words, I think they got there using evidence and reason, and they were willing to change their mind. Now, that means a lot to me what they have to say. If I think they're just ch- a tribal person, and I can predict all their beliefs from hearing one because it's so obvious what political beliefs, that person's views are irrelevant to me, because they're not real. They didn't come from information. They came from a tribe's kind of s- you know, sacred Ten Commandments.
- LFLex Fridman
I really like the comic you have in here about, with the boxer. Uh, "This is the best boxer in the world." "Wow, cool. Who has he beaten?" "No one. He's never fought anyone." "Then how do you know he's the best boxer in the world?" "I can just tell." I mean, th- this connects with me and I think with a lot of people, just 'cause in martial arts, it's especially kind of true, that this, this whole legend about different martial artists, and that kinda, we construct, like, action figures. Like, you know, thinking that, uh, Steven Seagal is the best fighter in the world, or Chuck Norris. Chuck Norris is actually backed up. He has done really well in competition, but still, the ultimate test for, particularly for martial arts is what we now know as, uh, mixed martial arts, UFC, and so on, and that's the actual scientific testing ground for-
- TUTim Urban
It's a meritocracy.
- 1:00:33 – 1:13:44
Conspiracy theories
- TUTim Urban
- LFLex Fridman
Uh, what do you make of conspiracy theories under this framework of the ladder?
- TUTim Urban
So here's the thing about conspiracy theories, is that once in a while they're true.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
Right? So, 'cause sometimes there's an actual conspiracy. Actually, humans are pretty good at real conspiracies, secret things, uh, and then, you know, I just watched the Madoff doc.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
Um, great new Netflix doc, by the way. Um, and, um, so the question is-How do you create a system that is good at, you put the conspiracy theory in, and it either goes eh, or it says, "This is interesting. Let's keep exploring it." Like, how do you put, how do you do something that it can, how do you assess? And so again, I think the Hyron culture is really good at it because a, a real conspiracy, you're, what's gonna happen is, you put it, it's like a, a little machine you put in the middle of the table and everyone starts firing darts at it, a bow and arrow or whatever, and everyone starts kicking it and trying to... And almost all conspiracy theories, they quickly crumble, right? Because they actually, you know, you know, Trump's election one is, and I actually dug in and I looked at, like, every claim that he or his team made and I was like, "All of these don't, none of these hold up to scrutiny. None." And I was open-minded, but none of them did. So that was one that as soon as it's open to scrutiny, it crumbles. The only way that conspiracy can stick around in a c- in a community is if it is a culture where that's being treated as a sacred idea that no one should kick or throw a dart at-
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... because if you throw a dart, it's gonna break. So it's being, it's in, and so the, what you want is a sp- is a culture where no idea is sacred. Anything can get thrown at it, and so I think that then what you'll find is that nine, 94 out of 100 conspiracy theories come in and they fall down. The other maybe f- four of the others come in and there's something there, but it's not as extreme as people say, and then maybe one is a huge deal and it's actually a real conspiracy.
- LFLex Fridman
Well, isn't there a lot of gray area and there's a lot of mystery? Isn't that where the conspiracy theories seep in? So, uh, (laughs) it's great to hear that you've really looked into the, the, the Trump election fraud claims, but aren't they resting in a lot of kind of gray area, like fog, basically saying that there is dark forces in the shadows that are actually controlling everything? I mean, the same thing with, uh, maybe we can, there's, like, s- safer conspiracy theories, more c- less controversial ones, like, have we landed on the moon, right? Uh, uh, did the United States ever land on the moon? There's, you know, you... (laughs) Like the reason those conspiracy theories work is you could construct, there's incentives and motivation for faking the moon landing. There's a lot of, um, there's a, there's very little data supporting the moon landing. Like, that's very public and kinda looks fake. Space kinda looks fake.
- TUTim Urban
And that would be a big story if it turned, turned out to be fake.
- LFLex Fridman
So that, that's the argu- that's, that would be the argument against it. Like, are people, uh, really as a collective going to hold onto a story that big? Um, yeah, so that, but, but there's a lot, the, the, the reason they work is there's mystery.
- TUTim Urban
Yeah. There's a great documentary called Behind the Curve about flat Earthers and one of the things that you learn about flat Earthers is they believe all the conspiracies, not just the flat Earth.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
They're, they're, they're convinced the moon landing is fake. They're convinced 9/11 was a American con job. They're convinced, you know, that, it, it, b- y- name a conspiracy and they believe it. And so what's so interesting is that I think of it as a, um, as a sp- a skepticism spectrum.
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
- TUTim Urban
So on one side, you, it's like a filter in your head, a filter in your, in the beliefs section of your brain. On one end of the spectrum, you are gullible, perfectly gullible. You believe anything someone says, right? On the other side, you're paranoid. You think everyone's lying to you, right? Everything's, everything is false. Nothing that anyone says is true, right? So obviously, those aren't good places to be. Um, now, the healthy place I think that, that, that, well, so, so, so I think the healthy place is to be somewhere in the middle.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
And, but also you can learn to trust certain sources and then, you know, you don't have to do as much, sk- apply as much skepticism to them. And so here's what, like, when you start having a bias, just say you have a political bias, when your side says something, you f- you will find yourself moving towards the gullible side of the spectrum. You read an article written that s- that supports your views, you move to the gullible side of the spectrum and you just believe it and you don't have any... Where's that skepticism that you normally have, right?
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
And then you move, and then you, soon, as soon as it's the other person talking, the other team talking, you move to the skeptical, the, the, the, closer to the, to the d- in, you know, in denial, paranoid side. Now, flat Earthers are the extreme. They are either at 10 or one. So it's like, it's so interesting because they're the people who are saying, "Ah, nah, I won't believe you. I'm not gullible. No. The, everyone else is gullible about the moon landing. I won't." And then yet when there's this evidence like, oh, because you can't see Seattle, you can't see the buildings over that, uh, horizon and you should, which isn't true.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
You should be. If it were Er- if the Earth were round, you wouldn't be able to see them, therefore it's... So suddenly they become the most gullible person. They hear any theory about the Earth flat, they believe it. It goes right into their beliefs.
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
So they're actually jumping back and forth between refusal to believe anything and believe anything and so they're the extreme example. But I think when it comes to conspiracy theories, the people that get themselves into trouble are the ones who they, they, they become really gullible when they hear a conspiracy theory that kinda fits with their world view, and they likewise, when there's something that's kind of obviously true and not a big lie, they will actually, uh, they'll, they'll, they'll think it is. They, they, they just tighten up their kind of skepticism filter. And, and so yeah. So I, I, I think the healthy place is to be as where, is where you are not... 'Cause you also don't want to be the person who says, every conspir- you hear the word conspiracy theory and it sounds like an, like a synonym for, like, quack-
- LFLex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
- TUTim Urban
... job crazy theory, right? So yeah. So I, I think, I, I, yeah, I think it's, it's, be somewhere in the middle of that spectrum and to learn to fine-tune it.
- LFLex Fridman
Which is a tricky place to operate 'cause you kinda have to, every time you hear a new conspiracy theory, you should approach it with an open mind, and you know, and also if you don't have enough time to investigate it, which most people don't, kinda still have a humility not to make a conclusive statement that that's nonsense.
- TUTim Urban
There's a lot of, um, social pressure actually...
- LFLex Fridman
Yeah.
Episode duration: 3:07:18
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