Skip to content
Modern WisdomModern Wisdom

A History Of Existential Risk - Thomas Moynihan | Modern Wisdom Podcast 306

Thomas Moynihan is a historian and an author. Humans may have only had the ability to destroy ourselves for the last hundred years or so, but thinkers have been hypothesising about the potential end of existence for thousands of years. Today Thomas explains the history of how humanity came to realise its potential for extinction. Sponsors: Get 20% discount on the highest quality CBD Products from Pure Sport at https://puresportcbd.com/modernwisdom (use code: MW20) Get 10% discount on your first month from BetterHelp at https://betterhelp.com/modernwisdom (discount automatically applied) Extra Stuff: Follow Thomas on Twitter - https://twitter.com/nemocentric Buy X-Risk - https://amzn.to/2PzTYKx Get my free Ultimate Life Hacks List to 10x your daily productivity → https://chriswillx.com/lifehacks/ To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom #existentialrisk #climatechange #historyofideas - Listen to all episodes online. Search "Modern Wisdom" on any Podcast App or click here: iTunes: https://apple.co/2MNqIgw Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2LSimPn Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/modern-wisdom - Get in touch in the comments below or head to... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx Email: modernwisdompodcast@gmail.com

Thomas MoynihanguestChris Williamsonhost
Apr 9, 20211h 24mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

How Humanity Awoke To Its Own Extinction — And What’s Next

  1. Thomas Moynihan and Chris Williamson explore the intellectual history of existential risk: how humans gradually came to understand that our species could irreversibly disappear.
  2. Moynihan contrasts ancient apocalyptic thinking—where endings fulfill a divine moral order—with the modern notion of extinction as the permanent loss of all future value and potential.
  3. Drawing on thinkers like Parfit, Bostrom, and Ord, they argue that recognizing existential risk is a hard‑won, recent achievement that should make us both cautious with technology and hopeful about our capacity for moral progress.
  4. They discuss natural and technological threats, space colonization, psychological barriers to caring about long‑term risk, and why this era’s work on x‑risk ethics may be a pivotal inflection point in human history.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Recognizing existential risk is a recent, major intellectual breakthrough.

For most of history, people assumed species, values, or civilizations would always return or exist elsewhere; only in the last few centuries did we grasp that humanity and its values could be irreversibly lost.

Extinction is morally far worse than even near‑total catastrophe.

Following Derek Parfit, the conversation emphasizes that the key difference is not between peace and 95% mortality, but between 95% and 100%—because total extinction forecloses all future generations and all unrealized value.

Technology is simultaneously the main risk source and the only long‑term safeguard.

Advanced technologies can generate “black ball” risks (e.g., misaligned AI, engineered pandemics) but also are required to defend against natural threats (asteroids, supervolcanoes, stellar evolution), creating a need for careful, paced progress.

Our moral and philosophical tools lag behind our technological power.

Applied ethics and secular moral philosophy are comparatively young fields; developing better ethical frameworks (e.g., longtermism, effective altruism) is crucial to guiding powerful technologies safely.

Ancient apocalyptic visions are not the same as modern extinction risk.

Religious apocalypses depict a morally meaningful consummation (judgment, completion), whereas scientific extinction describes the senseless, permanent ending of meaning and moral progress within an indifferent universe.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

Extinction is the rule. Survival’s the exception.

— Thomas Moynihan

The ability to grasp the prospect of our own extinction is a significant intellectual achievement.

— Chris Williamson (paraphrasing Moynihan’s point)

Apocalypse supplies a sense of an ending, whereas extinction anticipates the ending of sense.

— Thomas Moynihan

We’re the only animal that’s ever corrected itself.

— Thomas Moynihan

If I’m hurtling towards a cliff edge, I want to know where that cliff edge is, rather than just wishfully thinking, ‘I’ll be fine.’

— Thomas Moynihan

The intellectual history of extinction and existential riskDifference between apocalypse (religious end-times) and scientific extinctionPhilosophical arguments for the moral importance of safeguarding the future (Parfit, Bostrom, Ord)Technology as both existential threat and necessary protectionPsychological biases: scope neglect, wishful thinking, denial of deathSpace colonization, astronomical waste, and opportunity cost of delayModern cultural attitudes toward humanity, progress, and the Enlightenment project

High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.

Get more out of YouTube videos.

High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.

Add to Chrome