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Russian Election Meddling & Fake News | Nina Jancowicz | Modern Wisdom Podcast 210

Nina Jancowicz is a writer and an analyst for Central and Eastern Europe. Expect to learn whether Russia are meddling in our elections, why Moscow cares, how the predecessor to BLM was controlled by a Russian agency, how Russia recruits local citizens to be vehicles for misinformation, the impact of bot farms and much more... Sponsor: Shop Tailored Athlete’s full range at https://link.tailoredathlete.co.uk/modernwisdom (FREE shipping automatically applied at checkout) Extra Stuff: Buy How To Lose The Information War - https://amzn.to/2XLq6LL Follow Nina on Twitter - https://twitter.com/wiczipedia Get my free Ultimate Life Hacks List to 10x your daily productivity → https://chriswillx.com/lifehacks/ To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom #russia #fakenews #botfarm - Listen to all episodes online. Search "Modern Wisdom" on any Podcast App or click here: iTunes: https://apple.co/2MNqIgw Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2LSimPn Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/modern-wisdom - Get in touch in the comments below or head to... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx Email: modernwisdompodcast@gmail.com

Nina JancowiczguestChris Williamsonhost
Aug 15, 202055mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:000:53

    Intro

    1. NJ

      There are nations that are interfering. Russia is one of them. It uses a variety of tactics to do this, including this internet research agency, which is this, you know, infamous troll farm that exists in St. Petersburg, Russia. Um, and basically their job is to influence the discourse of a, a bunch of countries. Um, two main targets have been, of course, the United States and Ukraine. And as a result, you know, they are manipulating our discourse using the loopholes in the fabric of the internet and social media and exploiting our very openness and democracy, which is, I think, it's one of our weaknesses. It's a, it's both our strength and our weakness. The fact that we are open and transparent means that they can get in the discourse, and as a result, we are seeing our own societal fissures turned on their heads and manipulated in order to drive us against one another and decrease engagement in the democratic process.

    2. CW

      (wind blowing)

  2. 0:531:22

    Welcome Nina

    1. CW

      I'm joined by Nina Jankowicz. Nina, welcome to the show.

    2. NJ

      Thanks so much for having me, Chris.

    3. CW

      Pleasure to have you on. Is Russia listening to this podcast?

    4. NJ

      Oh, wow. Probably. (laughs)

    5. CW

      Oh, fuck.

    6. NJ

      (laughs)

    7. CW

      (laughs)

    8. NJ

      You know, I sent a couple copies of my book to, to friends and journalists in Moscow, and they never arrived. So, I, I only assume that they're at least listening to some of the podcast appearances I've made.

    9. CW

      No way. Bloody

  3. 1:224:27

    What is the IRA

    1. CW

      hell. So, where do we start? Let's, let's lay the land for people who don't know the, what the IRA... or think that the IRA is, like, the terrorist cell in, in Ireland. Uh-

    2. NJ

      Yeah, I get that a lot.

    3. CW

      Yeah, I know. "What do you mean the IRA? Are they getting involved? They, they were quite militant. I didn't think they would get involved in internet troll."

    4. NJ

      (laughs)

    5. CW

      So, like, that's... Bot farms and Russia, like, what- what's going on at the moment?

    6. NJ

      Sure. Uh, well, at the moment, nothing is very different from, from what it was in 2016. Uh, there are nations that are interfering. Russia is one of them. It uses a variety of tactics to do this, including, uh, this internet research agency, which is this, you know, infamous troll farm that exists in St. Petersburg, Russia. It's headed up by an oligarch, Prigozhin is his last name, who, uh, also owns some catering companies, and he also does, like, uh, fake army people for hire that he sent to the Central African Republic and a bunch of other places. But he's known as Putin's chef because of his catering businesses. And he also set up this troll farm, uh, where they have couple hundred people working. And we know this thanks to great reporting from, uh, from Russians and, and folks who were whistleblowers at the IRA. Um, and basically their job is to influence the discourse of a, a bunch of countries. Um, two main targets have been, of course, the United States and Ukraine, especially after the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. And Ukraine was kind of the IRA's laboratory. That's where they tested a lot of the tactics, and at the same time were trying them out. Here in the United States, uh, we know that they bought $100,000 worth of Facebook ads in 2016. Uh, that kind of was able to slip under the rug, but, um, you know, we've gotten a little bit wiser, I hope. At least the social media firms are, are looking for that sort of manipulation. But Russia doesn't stop, right? Uh, we've given them no real cost. We've imposed no cost, uh, to make them really disengage from this activity. And certainly, the UK hasn't either. The Russia report just came out last week and, and we learned that the UK government has kind of dropped the ball on this issue. Um, and as a result, you know, bad actors, be they Russia, or China, or Iran, or Venezuela, they are manipulating our discourse using the loopholes in the fabric of the internet and social media and exploiting our very openness and democracy, which kind of is, I think, you know, it's one of our weaknesses. It's a, it's both our strength and our weakness. The fact that we are open and transparent, um, means that they can get in the discourse. The fact that we have, you know, the First Amendment here in the United States and we want to value freedom of speech and of expression, we're very hesitant to touch any of that kind of pernicious, uh, spurious content that might be online. And as a result, um, we are seeing our own societal fissures turned on their heads and, and manipulated in order to drive us against one another and decrease engagement in the democratic process. And we're only 98 days away from an election right now here in the States.

    7. CW

      Fucking hell.

    8. NJ

      (laughs)

    9. CW

      It's just, it's just...

  4. 4:278:32

    Professional Catfish

    1. CW

      It doesn't sound good. It's, the, the synopsis is, it doesn't sound very good. Okay. So, we have professional catfish, fake news, bot farm, disinformation, misinformation that is far more sophisticated than anyone could have imagined coming out of a country that looks like it's only just discovered the wheel, but actually is crazy sophisticated and also plays to the fact that it feels like this sort of backwards, bludgeoning fool, just kind of, like, tumbling through the world circuit, and actually is really, really, uh, adept at this stuff. Um, it's happening from multiple different countries. The how is varied, and we're gonna get into that. The what is nuanced, and we're gonna get into that. And the result is fractured society, people not believing in diplomacy and, uh, democracy, and increasing, um, pulls to either end, which tear at the fabric of the middle.

    2. NJ

      Yes, yes. That's exactly right.

    3. CW

      That's because I read the book.

    4. NJ

      (laughs)

    5. CW

      I read the book, and then I was able to just tell you what you wrote, and now I sound like I'm an expert on it.

    6. NJ

      Well, that's why I wanted to hear it 'cause you- (laughs)

    7. CW

      That's why I'm an expert on it. Uh, so where, where do we begin? Is it the, is it the what they're doing? Is it the how they're doing it?

    8. NJ

      I think the how they're doing it is more instructive, actually. So, um, I had a little bit of a, a tiff with my publisher about the subtitle of the book. They, they really wanted it to be Russia Fake News And The Future Of Conflict, which you will, uh, (laughs) you will see that it, it did end up that way. Um-But I, I pushed back against fake news being in the subtitle, 'cause while it is a signpost to most normal people who don't think about this for their job like I do, uh, it's a, it's a misnomer. Most disinformation, many of the information operations that have been most effective both coming from Russia and, you know, the domestic stuff that we're dealing with, isn't about cut-and-dry fakes. It's not about, you know, uh, a fake article about something Hillary Clinton did or something Trump did. It's stuff that plays on our emotions. That's the currency of disinformation. And Russia's very adept at identifying that. So, they, they look for fissures in our society, and in the United States, we have many of them. That is by virtue of the fact that we are a large country, we, uh, we have a lot of, you know, cleavages in our society, ethnic, racial, economic, that can be exploited, and certainly our discourse has become more and more polarized. And they just identify those hot button issues and kind of poke at them from, from either side of the spectrum, and that's the second misconception, right? A lot of people think, "Okay, you know, Russia wanted the UK to leave the European Union. Uh, Russia wanted Trump to be in the White House 'cause that's beneficial to Russia." Both of those things are true, but that doesn't mean that they were only kind of agitating on behalf of those causes. They were agitating on, on both sides of the spectrum, so pro-Leave, pro-Remain, pro-Trump, pro-Clinton. Well, they really didn't ever do any pro-Clinton stuff, but they did do pro-Sanders (laughs) and pro-Jill Stein. Um, and, and the idea, again, is to just flood the zone with, with information, so much that people disengage. They get people who are engaged to turn against one another, and all of that benefits Moscow, because it means that our democracies are, are in shambles, that we're not able to reach consensus, which is one of the most important things about politics and, and creating a functioning government. Uh, it means the government is less responsive, and that's great for Putin. He can point to that d- and say to Russians, you know, "Is that the sort of democracy you want? Is that why you're on the streets right now? No, you want something stable. You want order. And that's what I'm giving you here in Russia." It also means that, you know, Russia's status is, uh, is definitely increased in the world. Is there a time since 2016 where the United States hasn't been going on and on about Russia every day? There's, there's at least one Russia-related disinformation article, not to mention all the other stuff that they've been doing, which, of course, we've been kind of ignoring, right? Because we're so concerned with this, we're so concerned with what's going on at home. All of that's great for Putin.

  5. 8:3210:27

    Domestic vs Russian News

    1. NJ

    2. CW

      How do we define, or how do we identify the difference between Russian or, um, malignant, malign actor-instantiated news, which is making people not want to engage with the discourse, and, uh, domestic-based news? Because it seems like the tactics that Russia's using here, which is, uh, divisive, um, encouraging people to disengage with talking online and stuff like that, seems like we're doing a pretty good job of that ourselves. And the fact that I can say that sentence makes me think, "Where's the line?"

    3. NJ

      Yeah. Yeah, you're absolutely right, and that's actually one of the main points of the book. So, I went out and did this reporting in five countries in Central and Eastern Europe thinking like, "Okay, I'm gonna write a lot about Russian disinformation." But really, the main point is that you can't fight Russian disinformation or Chinese disinformation or what have you if you are not addressing domestic disinformation as well. Um, we need to understand that disinformation, no matter its vector, is a threat to democracy, and, uh, that's something that we've really not, (laughs) not gotten to here in the United States. I think there is a disincentive to tell the truth in our politics lately. If you are telling the truth, you are absolutely on the back foot compared to the people who are using the Russian playbook, uh, on their own citizens. And, and we've seen a lot of that here. There are other countries in the book I talk about, namely Poland, where that has been playing out. There- you couldn't have a, a country that understands the Russian threat more than Poland, and, and yet, uh, they're doing so little to address it because they're, they're kind of enveloped in the domestic disinformation scheme at home. And you can't have it both ways, you just can't, um, and that's where kind of the regulation question comes into play. Nobody's really answered that question yet, um, but, but really the rules need to apply to everybody no matter the vector of that disinformation.

  6. 10:2714:07

    Explicit Examples

    1. NJ

    2. CW

      This sounds ... And some people listening may be thinking that this just sounds like crazy conspiracy theory, like, "Right, let's get our tinfoil hats out. Nina's chatting again." Um-

    3. NJ

      (laughs)

    4. CW

      What are some of the explicit examples that you came up with, or your favorite examples from the book on some of the times that stuff has occurred due to Russia's input?

    5. NJ

      Sure. So my favorite one for a couple of reasons. One, it, it demonstrates that it's not just a, a Republican thing, disinformation here in the United States. It can be a liberal thing too, so that's one reason it's great. It also happened after the 2016 election, so interference still going on, uh, even after these revelations came to light, and three, it shows the fact that ... Well, actually four things. Let me edit myself, four, four things. (laughs) So three, shows the fact that homegrown actors are, are used in these campaigns a lot, and four, shows that it has a real-life impact, uh, when we move kind of out of the offline space, so IRL as the kids would say, right? Um, (laughs) this is the story of Ryan Clayton and Americans Take Action and the July 4th, 2017 Les Misérables flash mob that they held in front of the White House. So, uh, I was in October of 2018 actually coming home from the UK. I got off a transatlantic flight and turned my phone on as I was making my way through customs in Washington, and, uh, I got a flurry of, of text messages about a new part of the Mueller investigation, the Russian investigation that had just been unsealed. It was a criminal complaint detailing how the IRA operated, how they made their money, how they spent it.And in that complaint, they detailed a few instances where the IRA was spending money on events in, in the DC area, across the country. One of them was a, a musical theater show tunes flash mob. And it's really funny that that was included in there, because I had seen ads for this event. I do theater in my spare time, which I don't have a lot of (laughs) anymore. But I had been served this ad. It was like, "Come dress up like a colonist on, uh, on July 4th and sing Les Mis and demand Trump's impeachment from the White House." Like, I remembered this ad. So I got really excited and I started reaching out to all my theater friends and being like ... I actually was out of the country, uh, at that point in, in 2017, but I was like, "Did you guys go to this?" 'Cause I remembered people posting about it. Couldn't find any of my friends who went, but there were videos online. Um, and so I reached out to the guy, this guy Ryan Clayton. He's in his 30s. He's kind of a hipster. He's a progressive activist. And, uh, I found him in the videos and said, "Ryan, did you know that the Internet Research Agency bought $80 worth of ads in order to turn more people out to your protests?" And I think his response was, "Holy shit. Thank you for letting us know." They had no idea, and they were- they- they weren't explicitly mentioned in the complaint. They were kind of referred to as, like, Organization 1 or something like that. Um, but then I met him later for coffee, and he told me all about his background as a progressive activist. Um, and he, he's the one that said, uh, what you were referencing before, you know, uh, it's not about a specific world view, it's about pulling at the fabric of society on the sides so that it rips down the middle. Um, and I just think this is such a great example of the fact that, you know, Russia doesn't create this stuff. It often uses local conduits. It happens in real life. It has a real life impact. He thinks that was one of their most successful protests because of those ads. They were so well-targeted. Um, and, you know, it, it kept going after 2016. It's just staggering to me.

  7. 14:0716:06

    Russian Spies

    1. NJ

    2. CW

      So it's not like Russia is sending over spies, or there's a bunch of Russians taking off their little sort of fez hats-

    3. NJ

      (laughs)

    4. CW

      ... and, uh, then donning, like, hippie elephant pants and going outside of the White House?

    5. NJ

      Well, they're not w- We don't know that for sure. They- th- the Internet Research Agency did send a couple of employees over to do kind of a reconnaissance mission in, I think, 2014 or 2015. But no. It's not like, uh, FSB agents are coming from the, the Russian Embassy-

    6. CW

      To sing Les Mis outside of-

    7. NJ

      ... and, and infiltrating. They're actually ... Yeah. (laughs) Which is the best part.

    8. CW

      (laughs)

    9. NJ

      You should watch the videos. They're really, uh, really inspiring. Um, but, uh, yeah, it's, it's more about using people who are already, uh, expressing these viewpoints, identifying them, um, and amplifying them. And that's what's still happening today, right? You know, we've gotten a little bit better at detecting those fake ads. Facebook doesn't allow those, for the most part, to be bought anymore, but Russia continues its information laundering, using those authentic local voices to deliver or amplify a di- divisive message, sometimes wittingly, sometimes unwittingly. There was a CNN investigation in March that broke the fact that the Internet Research Agency had contracted with PR firms in Ghana and Nigeria to spread its messaging, um, kind of pro-Black Lives Matter messaging in the United States. So they have that conduit, but that's one of the witting examples. We have unwitting examples all the time of, you know, fringe outlets unknowingly amplifying Russian narratives or, uh, Russian-based content, that sort of thing, or narratives on, on fringe outlets that deliberately take stuff from RT and Sputnik or, or other Russian propaganda sources. So it's complicated. And then there's, you know, money involved as well, um, illicit finance and how, uh, networks of organizations and political parties are supporting all of those narratives to lend credence to them, and, and they're supported by the Russian government.

  8. 16:0623:01

    Black Lives Matter

    1. NJ

    2. CW

      Well, it's like the enemy of my enemy is my friend, I suppose, unfortunately, and if you, as someone on one side of the aisle, permits something, some disinformation or misinformation to go ahead because you know that it's gonna damage the person that's on the other side of the aisle, you kind of ... You are a little bit complicit. Have you got any idea if and, if so, how much they've been involved over the last few months? Has there been any rumors about how much they've got involved in the recent Black Lives Matter protests and stuff like that?

    3. NJ

      Well, it's hard to track these campaigns in real time, especially because the platforms don't give us backend access. So what we do have is based on Twitter, which everybody knows that Twitter is not real life. Um, (laughs) and Facebook, you know, we kind of have to do guesswork. So it's, it's hard to identify this stuff in real time, and they're not creating those same fake accounts the way that they used to. Um, all of that being said, if you look at the kind of overt propaganda that Russia puts out on RT and Sputnik and similar, uh, similar, you know, outlets like Ruptly, which is a subsidiary of RT. There's a whole bunch of, like, smaller video outlets that Russia uses. Um, they've certainly taken a really critical view of the US during these protests, which, like, honestly we deserve it. Um, we have been harassing and, and, and beating protesters and journalists. And, uh, I- it's, it's hard to think about how we have two legs to stand on when it comes to talking about human rights abuses and things like that when that sort of thing is happening here. Um, and that's- that's perfect for Russia. It's ready-made disinformation. Um, in terms of broader campaigns that have been going on, again, really hard to track, but we do know, um, that Senate-... and House Democrats have been demanding a briefing from the FBI related to foreign interference in the 2020 election. And the intelligence community just last week released an assessment that said... It was basically a warning to American citizens saying, "A bunch of different actors are trying to influence the election. Uh, Russia is one of them, China is one of them, but we're really concerned about Russia, especially related to cyber issues." We know that Russia, for instance, is hacking vaccine trials for COVID-19. Um, but, uh, they, the Senate and, and House Democrats say that that wasn't enough, and we need more detail about the types of campaigns that are going on so Americans know what to look out for and what, what information to trust, frankly. Of course, that gets really politicized again, because any discussion of Russian interference is automatically viewed as an indictment of, of Trump's legitimacy. Um, and that's really, really unfortunate. No one is... Okay, people are claiming that Trump is, (laughs) is not a legitimate president. I am not one of them. Uh, I s- just want to make sure that, you know, we are protecting our discourse and, and that people have the tools they need to navigate the information environment we're in. I, I, it's not a political issue for me right now.

    4. CW

      Talk me through the life of an IRA agent. How many people do you work with? What, what's... You turn up to work, you sit down at your desk, you learn about Ameri- what do you do? Do you th- read a bit about America?

    5. NJ

      (laughs)

    6. CW

      Come up with a funny meme about Donald Trump, send it out, spend a bit of like Boost The Post and then leave it? Like what, what are they doing? Talk me through what their... how many people work there and where it is and stuff?

    7. NJ

      Yeah. Uh, I don't know if we have an updated number about how many work there anymore. It used to be a couple hundred. Uh, they since moved their headquarters and we don't know where they are anymore. I mean, maybe somebody in the intelligence community does, but I don't know. Um, and they have these different departments. The America Department is a lot of former journalists, especially young people who, uh, have good knowledge of English, they have good knowledge of American culture, which is, is frankly a lot of Russians. They have Law & Order reruns constantly on in Russia, for instance. (laughs) Uh, they, they consume a lot of American culture. Um, I think they're consuming a little bit of American media, watching the trends in the information space. They have some guidance, uh, about issues that they should be pressing and what candidates they should be supporting and what they should be kind of denigrating. Um, but ultimately, I would describe the approach as spaghetti at the wall. Um, they are, they are throwing spaghetti at the wall. They are seeing what sticks, and then they are continually throwing that same sticky piece of pasta at that same spot on the wall because they know it works. And social media allows them to do that. So anybody who's ever bought a Facebook ad or, or, you know, promoted anything on Twitter or, or Google understands the level of targeting data you have. You can really A-B test things to see what is resonating with people, and it's just a ready-made kind of disinformation laser gun. But they have to figure out what, what works first. And so if you look through the Russian ads from 2016 that, uh, the House Democrats released in 2018, it's, it's not necessarily all like bang on super successful engaging content. Some of it's really weird and that's because they were testing things, right? Some of them have no engagement at all. Um, it's just totally out of left field. And I think that's what's really interesting about it. The other interesting thing is that they understand that you can't just hit people over the head with, with, you know, false or misleading information right away. You kind of have to earn their trust. Uh, because people are still, even today, I think, a little bit skeptical of new information they encounter online. And so the campaigns look like community building. Originally they start with content that's, uh, you know, if we're talking about the Black Lives Matter movement, um, content that is about Black history or like positive contributions of Black Americans to, uh, society. And then after a couple of months, if not a couple of years of that, it moves on to stuff that is a little bit more political. So asking people to change their profile picture in support of a cause, asking them to sign an online petition, asking them to turn up in real life to a protest. And it's really ingenious the way that that works. Um, they've also identified, as I mentioned before, uh, different activists who are passionate, legitimate activists and looking for just some extra support. So if somebody comes to you and says, "I want to buy you some ads for your protest," as Ryan Clayton from Americans Take Action told me, he was like, "Well, as long as they're not politicians for killing puppies, then like, yeah, I'm going to take your money. Um, (laughs) because it's important to me to get my, my cause across." And I think that's the sort of thing that's happening. And especially because Facebook in particular, um, is using groups now as such an important part of its platform and a way to engage users.

    8. CW

      (clears throat)

    9. NJ

      Um, that is, uh, that's where we're seeing a lot of this really, really scary information being shared 'cause there's less, uh, oversight there and these are closed spaces.

  9. 23:0130:01

    Ads from 2016

    1. NJ

    2. CW

      (sighs) God. I just keep on thinking about how much of the stuff that I see online is created by some fella sat in the IRA. Um, what are some of the ads that they ran during 2016 that were either, uh... some of the ones that were effective and some of the hilarious ones that were ineffective? Can you remember any of those?

    3. NJ

      Yeah. Um, my favorite one is this golden retriever who... I, I love dogs. I have a dog. He's actually quite famous. He was on N- NPR once, National Public Radio here in, uh, in DC.

    4. CW

      I love him already.

    5. NJ

      Yeah. He, he howls along to the theme song of one of their evening news shows. So he's a famous dog. Uh, this other dog, perhaps not so famous. This, this dog didn't do that well, uh, in the ads. He's a golden retriever. He's kind of sat in a little field. His paws are crossed. He's got a red and white star bandana on, and he's holding a little American flag between his paws. Obviously this was photoshopped. Uh, and it says on the picture, "Like if you think it's going to be a great week."... um, which (laughs) I probably wouldn't have liked that because-

    6. CW

      I don't know, I-

    7. NJ

      ... let's be real.

    8. CW

      If you, if you wouldn't like that, you don't have a soul.

    9. NJ

      Exactly, right? Or you hate America, which, like, uh, fine.

    10. CW

      Might be the same thing.

    11. NJ

      Fine. Maybe, maybe you don't think, uh, the dog should be holding, uh, a flag. Maybe that's animal abuse. I'm not sure. But, uh, so that was one of their kind of more positive ads. It was shared on the Being Patriotic Facebook page. Um, there were other ones that were about Beyoncé. It was like, you know, trying to come for Queen Bey as we call her. Uh, kind of, I don't know, criticizing her. There was, like, a dance off post about Beyoncé.

    12. CW

      Jesus Christ.

    13. NJ

      Uh, there were some things that encouraged, a- again on the Being Patriotic page, that encouraged, uh, Trump supporters to dress their kids up in Make America Great Again gear and take pictures of them, and then they were gonna ... There was a contest and whoever got the most likes would-

    14. CW

      (laughs)

    15. NJ

      I forget what the thing was, but they ... That scares me 'cause it's using kids, and they're putting their images on the internet. Um-

    16. CW

      Yeah.

    17. NJ

      What else was there? There was, uh, this duo of, um, two Black guys in Russia who made content for YouTube. This never took off. They basically just made content targeted at the American Black community, um, and it was just basically talking about police brutality and stuff like that. But they weren't, they weren't from America, they were from, from, I forget which African country-

    18. CW

      Right.

    19. NJ

      ... living in Russia, clearly, uh, targeting Black Americans. And it just, it never really gained traction.

    20. CW

      One of the less, one of the slightly less subtle approaches-

    21. NJ

      Yeah. Yeah, exactly.

    22. CW

      ... that they went for, they went for there. Yeah. Exactly. I am Dimitri. I mean, Daniel. And this is like ... (laughs)

    23. NJ

      Yeah. Yeah, they just weren't well-produced. I mean, there's something to say for infotainment, which Russia's really good at. Um, and if you are interested in this, I would recommend Peter Pomerantsev's book, uh, Nothing is True and Everything is Possible. He worked as a TV producer in Russia in the '90s, which was a crazy time to be in Russia. Um, and he talks about, you know, all these slickly produced-

    24. CW

      (coughs)

    25. NJ

      ... things that they're so good at. Um, this was not one of them. (laughs)

    26. CW

      It doesn't seem like it. It also seems like they've read Gary Vaynerchuk's Jab, Jab, Jab, Right Hook, where it's like, "Oh, we'll just keep on giving you some of this ... It's a dog. It's just a dog with a bandana. And this, this, and this." And then, "Oh, will you just sign this petition?" T- The thing that makes me feel the most uncomfortable is when it starts to move from virtual to reality. Like, when people are going and doing a thing, um-

    27. NJ

      Yeah.

    28. CW

      ... you know? You feel like there's a boundary, some sort of, um, sphere within which things can happen, and as long as it's on the internet, kind of doesn't matter.

    29. NJ

      Right.

    30. CW

      When it gets into real world, it, it d- Was it, um ... Did Russia have the biggest Blacktivist Facebook page before ... They were bigger than Black Lives Matter and it was Russia.

  10. 30:0132:56

    Being an activist

    1. CW

      It must feel, as, uh, an activist of a-... worthy cause in your mind, that's just doing your thing, and I just learned some stuff online, man. And you know, I read this blog post and watched this video, and now I'm out here doing my bit for the cause. Like, to find out that that cause was falsely created by someone from a country on the opposite side of the planet, I, I, I don't know what that says in a meta-ethics term for what the truth is that, that person believes in. Does that push them-

    2. NJ

      Mm-hmm.

    3. CW

      ... closer to a truth that they wouldn't have known otherwise? Is it unfair to tell someone something that makes them act in a way when you're not from the country and you have a different... Do you know what I mean? Like, you can get-

    4. NJ

      Yeah.

    5. CW

      ... kind of quite abstract with thinking about whether it's justified or not to further a cause, which at its essence might have, um, veracity and truth, but isn't being done for the right reasons. Does that make sense?

    6. NJ

      Yeah. So I think the difference is, like, Russia's not creating this stuff. It's exploiting it.

    7. CW

      Yes. Yes. Yes.

    8. NJ

      So I don't blame the activists at all, right? I think they are doing... their intentions are pure, and it's, it... there's... nobody should take action against them for unknowingly engaging in this stuff. They have no, no... and no one really has, to their credit. I think, um, it's worth educating activists and kind of members of civil society about the fact that you can't trust everybody you meet on the internet. Actually, I think this is (laughs) worthwhile for everybody to understand, especially those of, of us who are active in, like, Facebook groups and stuff. You know, I, I give the example a lot that just because you're in a group of local moms, uh, doesn't mean that everybody there is actually a local mom. And if you've not met them or been on the phone with them in pers-, like, uh, face to face or in pers-, like on the, uh, audio... geez, I can't talk. Um, (laughs) then, uh, then, you know, it... you have reason to believe that they aren't who they say they are. Um, and in fact, a lot of the activists who were being manipulated by Russia, they tried to get them on the phone, and they could never get anybody on the phone, and they kind of just gave up and were like, "All right, like, whatever, we're doing this, we're doing this action, we're doing this rally. It is what it is." Um, and I think that's a red flag these days, and we just have to... we have to be careful about it. Um, and there are gonna be pe- people who aren't gonna care about th- that, on both sides of the spectrum. They're just gonna say, "I'm fine with taking that money, I don't care." You know, "I'm still a l- this is, this is what I believe in." Um, and that's where we need some regulation. You know, there are rules about foreign money in elections. Uh, there's, there are going to be, I hope soon, rules about foreign influence online, uh, related to political issues. And, and everybody needs to kind of increase their awareness of the fact that there are people manipulating the, the online discourse across the spectrum, inside and outside of our borders.

  11. 32:5637:15

    Why did the Russians want Trump

    1. CW

      Why did the Russians want Trump in office?

    2. NJ

      Well, they hate Clinton. (laughs) They really, really hated Hillary Clinton.

    3. CW

      Yeah, but loads of people hated her.

    4. NJ

      Well, there... it was kind of personal, um, with Putin and Clinton. Uh, he saw her as personally responsible for protests that happened in tw- 2012 that were probably the biggest check on his legitimacy in office, um, that he had ever faced. He, he saw those protests as funded by the United States and organized by the United States, even though they weren't. Um, so, so... and she was pretty tough on him, uh, and it was clear that her administration was gonna be tough on him. Trump, on the other hand, uh, has a soft spot for authoritarians, um, had publicly questioned whether, uh, Crimea should be part of Ukraine or part of Russia. Uh, just, you know, cliff notes, it's part of Ukraine. Like, it's Ukraine's sovereign territory, for anyone wondering, (laughs) and we don't allow countries to just rewrite borders anymore. Um, he, he has a lot of connections to, uh, Russian organized crime. Uh, he... a lot of the tenants in his condos and his buildings were Russian oligarchs. Uh, still are, because he's not divested himself from, from any of those holdings. So I think, um, i- in short, Putin knew he would be easy to manipulate, and I think that's proven true. Uh, we've not imposed any costs, any significant costs, on the Russian regime for the things that they've done, not only in regard to disinformation, but vis-a-vis Ukraine, vis-a-vis Syria. Um, there's any number of, of, of things we could have been harsher on. Uh, and for some reason, Trump has kind of just allowed that stuff to happen, uh, without any check. Or even worse, his administration has imposed costs in other parts of government, be it the State Department or Treasury imposing sanctions on certain Russians, and then Trump has come in and kind of undercut a lot of that. He's just created this kind of incongruity between what his administration does and then the things he says to Putin, and he talks to Putin on the phone all the time. We never get readouts from what those calls say beyond, like, very, very broad things. Um, and you know, he's been publicly very positive about his relationship with Putin. He, he jokes with Putin about election interference. He, he wags his finger and says-

    5. CW

      (laughs)

    6. NJ

      ... "Don't you meddle in our elections." Which, I don't know, that's not the warning that I, as an American citizen, want to see, uh, Trump giving Putin. And there's nothing I want more than for us to have great relations with, with Russia, probably under a different leader, right? Um, I love the Russian people, I lived there, I love many Russians, a lot of them were at my wedding, right? It, it, it's not about Russophobia, it's about rules of the international order and, like, democratic and human rights norms that we seem to have abandoned for reasons that I can't fully explain unless I were able to get into Trump's brain.

    7. CW

      Yeah, I understand. It seems at the moment, listening to a lot of stuff that comes from Joe Rogan's podcast, also Ben Shapiro's stuff, um, I've got Chris Voss from the FBI-

    8. NJ

      Mm-hmm.

    9. CW

      I've got him on soon, and some of the stuff that I've heard him talk about, it seems like China is like... China's the hot new girl in school to be worried about as an international power.... um, and it almost feels a little bit to me like Russia was the old fear for a long time, right? Cold War, then that kind of gets artifacted across. Then the USSR kind of breakdown and all that sort of stuff happens. And then the- we kind of for- forget about- about Russia a little bit, and then there was all these concerns about Huawei and about, um, trademarking, and there's these markets in China that are making duplicates of, like, every car on the planet. And then the UK government only last month said that they're going to roll back the integration of 5G towers that are being provided by China because of concerns for security and stuff like that. So, are you- are you team Russia for who we need to be more worried about?

    10. NJ

      I think we can be worried about both at once, and that's actually what makes it a- a much more difficult challenge, right, when you've got multiple very strong adversaries in the international arena that are both screwing with you in different ways. Uh, I think that's- that's a really (laughs) challenging scenario, um-

    11. CW

      How do you distinguish the two?

  12. 37:1540:53

    Russia vs China

    1. CW

      What's the- what's the relative roles that they're both playing?

    2. NJ

      Sure. With the caveat that I am, uh, you know- all of my background is in- is in Russia and Russian studies, um, and I'm, uh, you know, I just read about China, but the way (laughs) that-

    3. CW

      Mm-hmm.

    4. NJ

      ... I understand it is, um, China has always practiced disinformation and propaganda to some extent. With the online stuff, they've just started to dip their toes into the type of things that Russia has been doing. And still, the- the goal of Chinese disinformation isn't necessarily to, uh, to pull the fabric of society apart, like we were talking about before, it's to promote China as a world power. It's to promote the Chinese kind of narrative, the Chinese view of the world, uh, and- and of course, to denigrate the United States and other Western powers. Um, Russia has its own kind of masochistic, uh, unscrupulous goals that- that differ in that way. And then in terms of tactics, Russia's gotten really good at the manipulation of- of those fissures, whereas China is- is still just using kind of overt propaganda, and that's the most successful thing for them. So, they're using diplomatic accounts, um, state-run propaganda channels, uh, overt messengers to s- send a coordinated message across, you know, many different information environments in- in the West and elsewhere. Um, and i- if they're using fake accounts, they've not done a very good job of it. So there have been some analyses of like how China, during the first wave of Hong Kong protests, how China was trying to influence the rhetoric and- and dialogue about what was going on there, and it was all really heavy-handed stuff that just, I mean, I think nobody really bought into it. I- I wouldn't put it past them that they're gonna get better at it, and- and they do use disinformation really, of course, very effectively, uh, on their domestic population. Um, they have what's called the Tencent Army, which is this army full of commenters who comment on public posts, on blogs, and like WeChat and things like that, um, to- that's like pro-CCP propaganda. Um, so if that- if those folks spoke, you know, other languages and were unleashed on the world, we'd- we'd have ourselves a problem, but for some reason they've not done that yet, and- and I think part of that's 'cause they have kind of a technical leg up and certainly a- an economic leg up in ways that Russia doesn't. Um, they don't- they don't need to engage in that sort of cheap, easy return on investment stuff because they have so many levers in diplomatic and economic negotiations that, uh, Russia, certainly in the economic realm, does not. So that's where I see the difference. Um, and I think they're, again, both, uh, (laughs) both problems for, uh, coming at us in- in different vectors, and, um, we- we're gonna need people in government who understand both of these countries. We're gonna need people who understand the tools and tactics that they're using, and- and people who are willing to, you know, look at the problems, um, that both of these nations are exploiting at home, whether that's US economic insecurity or our societal issues, um, and- and, you know, strengthen, uh, the domestic situation, which it sounds like the UK is- is moving in the right direction with that. With China, hopefully the Russia report will- will kind of gi- give you a kick in the pants with regard to Russia. Although I have to say, uh, if any of my- my colleagues who I've worked with across British government are- are listening, I do think that you guys are more with it than- than the US government is, and you've done a lot of good work in terms of holding the tech companies accountable, and you've also done good work in- in Europe supporting governments and organizations that are countering Russian disinformation. So it's not all bad.

  13. 40:5343:05

    Policy response

    1. NJ

      Uh-

    2. CW

      H- how much of it is a- a top-down problem? How much of it is policymakers need to steam in and say, "Right, you need to show, um, national certified identification to start a Twitter or Facebook account," or, "You need..." Do you know what I mean? Like, wha- wha- what- what's the solution here from a policy side?

    3. NJ

      Well, I will say that I think, um, one thing the Russia report shows is that it- it was successful administrations and governments in the UK that kind of dropped the ball, so, uh, successive rather, not successful. (laughs)

    4. CW

      (laughs)

    5. NJ

      Successive administrations that dropped the ball. Um, and here in the United States, we certainly have a leadership problem. Uh, Trump doesn't wanna recognize that this is a problem. That recognition, um, whether it's coming from UK prime minister, US president, is key to shoring up the resources that are necessary to create a policy response, and neither of our governments have done that satisfactorily yet. Um, every country that I look at in the book who- who at least has that clear assessment is able to get more done than both of our governments have. So that's the first thing. Um, the policy response, without getting too boring and wonky, I-... really has to be whole of government, and that's a term that's thrown around a lot, and I think when most national security people say, "Whole of government," they, they kind of just mean, you know, we need that recognition from, from the top and we're going to have some meetings about it. Um, when I say, "Whole of government," I mean it really needs to include the parts of government that you don't normally think of as part of a national security apparatus. Uh, like, we have a Department of Education who deals with schools. They need to be in the room because we need to be teaching kids media literacy, digital literacy, how to recognize when they're being emotionally manipulated, all these things. Uh, some countries have, like, a Ministry of Culture, a Ministry of Sport, Ministry of Youth. All of those need to be included. Uh, we need to invest more in our public journalism. Um, I really admire the BBC system. I know it has its faults, but, uh, you... That's a, a true investment in journalism as a public good, and in the United States, we spend $3 per person per year on, uh, on our pr- public broadcasting

  14. 43:0544:45

    BBC

    1. NJ

      corporation.

    2. CW

      I was going to say, as much as you can criticize the BBC, it is nowhere near as fucked as America's press is. Oh, my God.

    3. NJ

      Yeah. Yeah, yeah.

    4. CW

      Like, the last, the last few... The last few months have been a complete shit show.

    5. NJ

      Well, and, you know, in, uh, in times of crisis, I think it's something around 60% of Brits still trust the BBC as, as a source of information in crisis, and I, I can't think of a single source that Americans would trust to that extent. And that's a problem. That's... That vacuum is exactly what disinformation is attacking. So, I hope that there is, someday, a government that understands that we need to heal ourselves at home to deal with these problems. That means good governance. It means investing in education. It means investing in, in journalism, um, and empowering the parts of government that deal with people on a regular basis, local and state governments. Again, those, those kind of citizen-oriented parts of government, like the Department of Education. Um, and we've not gotten there yet. And then, there's a regulatory question that, you know, Congress has completely dropped the ball in terms of (sighs) the, the social media regulation we need, and also campaign finance reform, which is never going to fully be solved because it, it benefits those in power to not reform campaign finance. Um, but, uh, these are all the things that, you know, really need a good, hard look, and, um, I'm hoping that when people go to the ballot box in November, or as it were, I suppose, mail their ballots in, uh, that we will all be thinking about that and how we need a renewed commitment to, to truth in this country. Because ultimately, um, without that volition, without that political will in government, we, we can't do very much and then there's no point in me getting out of bed in the morning. (laughs)

    6. CW

      (laughs)

  15. 44:4547:31

    The divisive narrative

    1. CW

      There's something about the divisive narrative that I've been increasingly hearing. Obviously, like, 2020 is just mental. That Trump got impeached this year-

    2. NJ

      I know.

    3. CW

      ... which was 75 years ago.

    4. NJ

      Yeah. (laughs)

    5. CW

      Trump got impeached this year. Um, uh, Tiger King happened this year. You know, like, the, the big, the big shit. Uh, it's so divisive. Like, it's, it's never been as mental for me as a Brit to voyeuristically watch the slow-motion car crash that is American press. Um, but there is some extra factor of fear that gets layered over the top of all of that when you realize that that might not be due to the volition of the people who are actually writing the stories, or that the stories were being written about stuff which was contrived, like purposefully-

    6. NJ

      Mm-hmm.

    7. CW

      ... created by bad state act- uh, b- by out-of-state actors who want this to be the outcome. This is like... I don't know. This is like finding out the monster under your bed isn't what you need to worry about because the bed is the monster.

    8. NJ

      (laughs)

    9. CW

      And you're like, "Oh, fu- u- u-." Like, do you know what I mean? Like, you, you, you thought-

    10. NJ

      Yeah.

    11. CW

      ... it was just this, and then it turns out it's like, like th- the sequel. The sequel to the horror movie is actually where it's, like, it's all Russia. So, I don't know. I mean, what's the long game? Like, what's the, what's the, the real kind of end result here? Obviously, it's... It would appear China is raise ourselves up to look like a stronger superpower. Russia is tear other people, other countries down so that we relatively look stronger. Again, y- as you've identified, it would appear that that's because Russia probably has to appreciate its own glass ceiling. It can't-

    12. NJ

      Mm-hmm.

    13. CW

      ... pretend to be a global superpower when it comes to the tech game. Like, no one's buying Russian iPhones. Um, so, um, so what, what is the, the end goal for Russia then, other than just to make America look a bit shit?

    14. NJ

      Well, again, I think that has domestic implications for Putin's grip on power. Um, it's always been about, you know, the comparative exercise between Russia and the West and what an authoritarian system can offer versus the unpredictability of democracy. If you look at the Arab Spring, if you look at what happened in Ukraine, Euromaidan in, in 2013, 2014, or even if you go back further to the revolutions that happened in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in the early 2000s, um, that's always been the biggest threat to Putin, something that he's

  16. 47:3150:04

    The long game

    1. NJ

      always been scared of-

    2. CW

      I love the way... Sorry. Uh, Nina, I love the way that you say Putin.

    3. NJ

      (laughs)

    4. CW

      It's so-

    5. NJ

      Ah, it's my, my Russian is to me. I mean, we can say Putin, but, uh, but that just makes me sound like I'm from New Jersey, which I am, so-

    6. CW

      (laughs)

    7. NJ

      ... Putin. Um, (laughs)

    8. CW

      Yeah. It's cool.

    9. NJ

      I try not to, to, you know... If you get me cursing, then I really start to sound like I'm from, from New Jersey. So, we won't do that here. Uh, but, uh, but yes. So, uh, that, that all benefits good old Vlad Putin. Um, and, uh, and I think that's the long game. It's to maintain his, his grip on power, and then, you know, also it puff up, puff up Russia, which benefits him as well. Um-And I- I just think it's really important, especially because, you know, more actors are- are entering the disinformation game now that the Russian playbook has been opened for everyone to- to see. And, you know, this playbook has been used by advertisers and PR people for- for ages, right? Um, we just need to, again, turn inward. The more that we can heal the fissures in our society, provide good governance, uh, create a resilient society, one that is skeptical, but in a healthy way, that's using information to- to create better governance. Uh, teaching civics, really important. Um, then we're gonna be more resilient. If you look at nations like Sweden and Finland and Estonia, um, they've invested in these things, and they're all smaller and more homogeneous nations than the UK or the US, but our countries are also extremely innovative. We're also, you know, we're good at this stuff if we invest in it. We just have to recognize it, um, and not just play what I call whack-a-troll all the time and think that we can just remove bad accounts, remove bad content, and that will fact check our way out of this crisis of truth and trust. Ultimately, it's about us. It's about all of us, and- um, and we all have to do our part.

    10. CW

      (sighs) I don't know. I really- I really feel like there's a lot of deceleration that needs to be done before you can even reverse the direction of what's going on at the moment, which is sad, right? Like, you write this book not knowing that 2020 is going to be this slow motion pile-up-

    11. NJ

      (laughs)

    12. CW

      ... and then- and- and the- the parting note is, let's remember our similarities, not our differences. Let's fix the fissures. Let's come together and force policymakers, use our votes, et cetera, et cetera. And what you don't know is that, uh, like tectonic plate-sized chasm is going to split straight through the middle of the country. There's going to be-

    13. NJ

      And it's going to be about wearing face masks. (laughs)

    14. CW

      And it's going to be about... Yeah, yeah, amongst-

  17. 50:0451:53

    Russia as the bad guy

    1. CW

      amongst many, many, many other things. Um, yeah. There needs to be a real change, I think, of, um, of tact. E- especially given the fact that there's people out there who really do want the country, the- the West generally, to fall to pieces.

    2. NJ

      Yeah.

    3. CW

      Um, I wonder whether there is a- a part of the fact that Russia has been the bad guy for so long, and the way that popular media portrays that, that we've almost caricatured Putin into that, like, "Oh, better not be meddling in any of our elections again, Vlad." Like-

    4. NJ

      Mm.

    5. CW

      And, you know, it's that classic, like almost a- a sort of a meta character about what Russia is, um, that is making us kind of forget that they're- they're genuinely able to do malicious stuff. Whereas I think that might be the reason that China feels natively a little bit more scary because it's a newer threat. Um, like, we were used to Russia, we know where to put them, they're in the Russia box. Like, Vlad wears the big fluffy hat and he rides-

    6. NJ

      (laughs) .

    7. CW

      He rides a horse with his top off, and like, that's what he does. Um, but we- we don't know about China. And yet, that is exactly the sort of wolf in sheep's clothing, like, you don't need to worry about us situation that Russia would want, right? To be able to- to really do a lot of damage.

    8. NJ

      Yeah, I think i- it's partly that, and partly just that our conception of Russia is grounded in kind of this cold warrior thought process. And as a young woman in the Russia field, there's nothing that makes (laughs) me more annoyed, uh, than to walk into a room or, as it were, like, a Zoom call with a bunch of people who have really interesting experience, but have never used a Facebook account, and, uh, you know, still conceive of and sometimes slip up and say the Soviet

  18. 51:5355:07

    Its a different country

    1. NJ

      Union in- instead of Russia, right?

    2. CW

      Fucking hell. (laughs)

    3. NJ

      It's a- it's a different country. Um, it's a different country and- and- and its people are different. The young people are different. I think the- the tactics that the IRA uses are a reflection of that. Again, a reflection of the weaponization of our own openness. And there's a- a reluctance to look in the mirror and say, you know, that this isn't- this isn't something that Russia caused, that it- it's our weakness that's being- being weaponized. Not just democratic weaknesses, but again, these societal issues. Um, and I think that's- that's hampering us. When we, again, because Chinese propaganda and disinformation is a little bit more straightforward, it's just easier to be like, "This is bad. What they're doing is bad." Um, and- and nobody wants that, but what Russia's doing is so clever and- uh, and it is hard to attribute, like, exactly how bad it is. There's always this ongoing debate about, did Russia change any votes? And it's impossible to know that, right? Because we- we can't do retroactive polling and be like, "Did you see this ad? Did it change your vote?" People don't... That's not how people's thought process works. But it is a steady drip drip over time that affects public opinion and people's conception of candidates and issues during a campaign. Um, and as such, you know, it makes it really hard to respond to, whether it's Russia or anybody else. And so, (sighs) I don't know. I- I hope that there is, uh, a little bit of return to nuance in the next couple of months, although that's gonna be hard. Nobody's really talking about foreign policy right now in the United States. We have bigger fish to fry. Um, and- and I think what little foreign policy discussion we are gonna talk about is gonna be characterized by that same rancor and- uh, and kind of simplicity that the- the past couple of years have been. Um, and it's just gonna be, you know, either you're- you're (laughs) pro-meddling or anti-meddling, which is a- a really poor distillation of- of the topic, um, but unfortunately, that's- that's what it's come down to in Washington in a lot of discussions.

    4. CW

      We'll have to see how 2020 plays out. Nina, I think good point to leave it there. What should you... What do you want to plug? Where- where- where do you want people to go?

    5. NJ

      Oh. Uh, well, you should buy my book at whatever local bookstore you like. I think those local bookstores need help right now. Uh, I understand if you don't want to leave your house, then you can buy it on one of the online sites, but, uh, if you can, order from your local indie. I think that is the- the best thing to do at these difficult times.

    6. CW

      Very cool. It will be linked in the show notes below on Amazon or, you know, throw a face mask on, go to Waterstones or WHSmith or whatever it is.

    7. NJ

      Use the Google machine. You can find it. (laughs)

    8. CW

      Yeah, sure. Uh, look, Nina, thank you. I- I hope that you have nothing to write about for the rest of 2020.

    9. NJ

      (laughs)

    10. CW

      And yet, sadly, I think that I'm gonna be wrong.

    11. NJ

      (laughs) Probably, unfortunately. (laughs)

    12. CW

      Oh, no. Look-

    13. NJ

      It was great to talk to you, Chris.

    14. CW

      And you.

Episode duration: 55:03

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