EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,033 words- 0:00 – 5:34
Intro
- TNTom Nash
They need the money when there's no war. 40% of Russian budget is digging from the ground and selling it to other people. It's a rickety-ass economy with no modern basis. It just, the most unsophisticated economy in the world. (airplane whooshing)
- CWChris Williamson
Tom Nash, welcome to the show.
- TNTom Nash
Welcome, Chris. We could not have picked a better time to talk. Uh, ev- I think that p- pretty much right now is 2022 and yet somehow, don't you feel like this is 1960s and we're dealing with the nuke crisis again? I mean, this is insane.
- CWChris Williamson
What a time to be a Russian man.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah. Not- not a good time to be a Russian, to be honest. Uh, Russia is canceled. I don't know if you heard, literally.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
(laughs) I mean, I think Putin miscalculated cancel culture. I've said it before, and I- I'll say it again, he's too old to understand how it works. Like, we're canceled. Every way.
- CWChris Williamson
Cance- yeah, but cancel culture up against a 200,000 person army with missiles and an air force, uh, eh, surely that's not a big deal.
- TNTom Nash
Look, even Hollywood, who sent John Cena to apologize to China, is now not sending movies to Russia, bro. I mean, look at the countries, I said- I said it earlier today, that voted with Russia on the, on the UN General Assembly. Iran, Syria, Eritrea, and Belarus, which for all intents and purposes, Belarus is just part of Russia, bro. So, (laughs) you, I mean, you don't have a lot of friends left, my guy, if you're Putin. Ugh. It's tough. There's the, you, do, do, do you know the channel NFKRZ?
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs) No. No.
- TNTom Nash
So, uh, NFKRZ is a, is a Russian channel ran by a guy named Roman, and he spells it with N-F-K-R-Z. That's how the channel name. And, um, he's a really cool dude, and he just made a video showing exactly what it looks like to get money off of ATM in Moscow, or sorry, St. Peter- St. Petersburg. So basically showing, like, a bunch of, like, uh, 200 people trying to get into the door, into the bank, and the security guard is saying, "There's no money here. Get the fu-" Like, post-apocalyptic scenes out of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Basically no money in the ATMs, nothing works, credit cards don't work, pretty much, eh, anywhere you have to pay with cash and, I mean, you can't get it. Now, the crazy part is now there's new regulation in Russia, basically, if you own any foreign currency, you have $70 or so to exchange it to rubles, like, 80% of them. You can't keep it anymore. Because-
- CWChris Williamson
So if you have in your bank account, if you had some dollars or some euros or some GBP-
- TNTom Nash
Yep.
- CWChris Williamson
... what, so what happens if you don't convert it?
- TNTom Nash
I think th- legal sanctions. I mean, you don't want to test it out. If you're a law-abiding citizen, I mean, look, the problem is, what do s- what do central banks do? What's the main job of the central bank? To make sure that the state-sponsored currency doesn't go ballistic. It needs to be stable. The way you do it is you regulate it like an oven. And the way you regulate it is with buying and selling, right? If your state-sponsored currency is going down, you buy some of it. And if it's going too much up, you sell some of it, right? To do that, you need, you need dollars (laughs) , my guy. You (laughs) , you need foreign currency to regulate. And if you don't have foreign currency, basically, and there's panic mode, which is definitely is the case right now, everybody's selling out, that's why the ruble is now rubble. It's pretty much pbbt, it's nothing, because... And that's why they're telling you, "Hey, sell all your foreign currency," because the central bank's literally needs just to take it from the citizens right now-
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, they-
- TNTom Nash
... just to somehow regulate.
- CWChris Williamson
... need foreign currency liquidity-
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... from their citizens so that they can use it to control their own c... So, what's happened to the state of the ruble now?
- TNTom Nash
It's, it's very close to w- it's on the path to 1998.
- CWChris Williamson
What's that mean?
- TNTom Nash
That means hyperinflation. So, there's a few economists who-who commented on this, and I can tell you from friends on the ground (clears throat) that, like, prices of electronics have gone, like, 40% up within five days. Uh, it's, there's a lot of economists that are saying that if this continues for a few more days, we're looking at anywhere from 50 to 70% inflation within a week, bro. This is not 1984. When you take a country off the grid, this is what happens. It- it basically, money becomes worthless, hyperinflation, and then you sell your, you know, everything you own for your next lunch. This is literally what happened in Russia in the late '90s. Like, I, we've seen this happen. Uh, and the, the problem is, that while 1998 happened, Russia was not spending $20 billion a day on the war, which is something you also have to take into account, that war is costing (laughs) a lot of money. Not to mention the fact that this rickety-ass army is stuck in the mud because of logistical nightmare. But, I mean, even that, you know, whatever attempt of... I don't understand. I'm not a military strategist, I don't understand this. All I'm saying, I'm, I'm a money guy, this war is expensive, and he just got cock-block from accessing any sort of foreign currency.
- CWChris Williamson
All right. So could you give- let's-
- TNTom Nash
That was, that was his biggest
- 5:34 – 16:17
Financial Context for Russia’s Invasion
- TNTom Nash
mistake, by the way.
- CWChris Williamson
Let's go from the absolute top. People that don't understand what's happened in terms of financial sanctions, what the impacts have been, what they actually mean for Russia, uh, this b- this story about Swift was gonna happen, it wasn't gonna happen, now it's happened.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Like, let's just take it from the top, all the way down. What's happened financially with regards to Russia?
- TNTom Nash
You have to understand, we're starting from the middle of the story, but we can do it, but we have to go back to the origins. But l-
- CWChris Williamson
Take us from the, take us from the start, man. Go from the beginning.
- TNTom Nash
No, no, no. But this is an i- Let's start from the middle and then go back. So-Putin's plan all along was basically to create, uh, a feud between NATO itself. So NATO is basically, to be honest, three countries that dominate NATO: US, it's Germany, and it's, uh, Great Britain or England or UK, whatever you want to call it. I, I get confused. I never know what the fuck you guys are called. Anyways, so it's like Switzerland. Which language do they speak? I don't understand. What their nationality? Like Swit- I'm so confused by Switzerland, bro. Like, what is this country? (laughs) Like, what's the language? What is... Like, you have this, have you ev- It's like Swiss people, bro, they're more confused than, think Canadians. (laughs) And I love Swiss people, and I love me some Canadians. But check this out. Basically, Putin said, "Hey, listen. The Germans, ze Germans, they need me. Now that they've basically shut down nuclear reactors, and I understand why they did it, right? And they don't want to burn coal anymore, out of environmental concerns, they need my gas. And I own them because 60% of Germany's energy is coming from Russia." Imagine having that kind of power, especially in the winter. I don't know how you... I don't, look, I, you think you know how much it's getting cold? You, you don't know cold until you've seen, like, true German cold, bro. I mean, I know you guys invented the color damp over there in the UK, (laughs) but I mean, true German cold is like, it's, it's vicious. E- even now, even in February, even in March, it's gonna be cold for a while. Now, imagine having that sort of power if you, if you were Russian. And just think. And on the flip side of it, you have another dominant NATO member, which is the US, which doesn't give a fuck about Putin's energy. They couldn't give less fucks about it. They don't need it-
- CWChris Williamson
I thought that they were, I thought that they were relatively dependent on Putin's energy because they've shut down their own energy independence.
- TNTom Nash
No. That's Germany.
- CWChris Williamson
No, I thought that America was the same as well.
- TNTom Nash
A- America is energy independent, which is exactly where you want to be. America has their own natural gas, they have their own, uh, oil. They have everything they need internally. They don't need to buy... They buy shit, but, I mean, they're energy-independent, which means they don't need anybody else to create their-
- CWChris Williamson
I thought that they'd scaled back their production, their pipelines. They were increasingly dependent on Russia. Are you saying that that's not true?
- TNTom Nash
They don't, uh, they don't... I don't exactly know the numbers of how much they're buying and selling, but once you have potential energy independence, it doesn't really matter. I don't know exactly how much they're buying. To my understanding, US is not dependent. It's nowhere near, if anything, to what's going on in Germany, in Italy, and then generally in the EU. We can look up the numbers later, but I don't think so. For years and years, the European Union have been basically trying to have this debate about, "Well, everybody's too dependent on, on Russia." So 40% of the European gas consumption is, is Russian, and the worst of them all is Germany, with 60%. And they haven't done nothing about it because, I mean, why would you? It's cheap gas, it's convenient, and, you know, it's working. Why, you know, why talk about something that might happen one day, right? Why prepare? So when Putin, I think, started this, that's why if... Okay, let's divide the world, right? You have the people who are hawkish on Putin, which is the US, and you have the dovish, which is EU and mainly Germany, up until just a few days ago. That's the way it always worked. And every time there's a little bit of a problem, Germany's just appeasing and basically saying, "Okay, okay. Chill, chill, chill." And the US is like, "Sanctions, sanctions." So Putin knew that if he's gonna start this turmoil in, in Ukraine, whatever happens, he knew he was gonna get sanctioned by the US. That's why he completely, uh, de-dollarized his entire exports. He went from 95% dollars to 10% dollars.
- CWChris Williamson
When was that?
- TNTom Nash
And for the past four years, he'd been slowly prepping for this. Now, he, he has some yens, but mainly it's euros. Because he never thought that the Germans will basically say, "Well, uh, I mean, you've gone too far." Because he- they can't. And there is a reason why he did this when he did this. And the reason people are saying, "Oh, it's Trump, it's Bi-" It's not about Trump or Biden. It's about inflation in the US, which is a 40-year high, which means they can't afford high oil prices. And because even though they don't buy, really, and we can check the numbers later, Russian oil, they buy shit that are being produced with Russian oil, which means they'll fill the, the price. And, but, behind- besides, you know, oil is a global pricing mechanism, so it doesn't really matter. So he started this knowing that inflation in the US is super high, so they're super sensitive to oil prices, and also in the winter. So he knows that the Europeans, uh, don't want any interruptions right now. A- and he thought, I think, that his thought process was, "Well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna push in Ukraine. They're not gonna interrupt with me because Ukraine is not NATO, and they'll, they will not risk a nuclear war with me for Ukraine. And the Germans are g- basically gonna get into a fight with the US. And then I'm gonna destabilize NATO, and I'm gonna create a, a, a fight between them, and I'll take Ukraine. And I'll be ready for US sanctions because I'm completely in euros."
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, so the presumption was that Germany wasn't gonna push back because of their energy dependence on Russia, and that America-
- TNTom Nash
Precisely.
- CWChris Williamson
... America would want to push back because it's relatively energy independent. This would create conflict between Germany specifically, as one of them, and America. America wants more sanctions. Germany wants fewer sanctions. There's your friction. Meanwhile, you can move forward. Is that what you're saying the plan was financially?
- TNTom Nash
Precisely. And if you look at the first few days of the, of the military operation, this is exactly how it played out. You remember how Germany refused to allow anybody to send German-made arms to Ukraine in the beginning, and how they just agreed to send some helmets over there? Now, Germany has a longstanding embargo on, on, they don't send, traditionally, weapons to conflict, uh, conflict regions because of their history, obviously. But, uh, you know-I mean, there are a lot of explaining to do, but I mean ... (laughs) uh, all I'm saying is ... So Germany was basically pushing back in the beginning, and they were actually more closer to the German position because when it started, the narrative was, "Well, if he stops with these pieces of Ukraine," which he already de facto owns, let's be honest, since 2014, "If he stops with Luhansk and Donetsk, we'll just let him have it." That was the sentiment, and that was being led by Germany. Like, "You know what? Fuck it. He already owns it anyways. He just makes it official. We don't care." And I think that his biggest miscalculation, and I think ... Tell me if you think that's right, Chris. When you surround yourselves with yes men and you completely kill anybody with an opposing opinion, you create this echo chamber where I think nobody told him, "Hey, the Germans might push back." I don't think anybody in his team actually told him that. And I don't know if you've seen this, but there's a very famous viral clip that's circulating where he was interrogating his own head of intelligence about whether they should or should not invade Ukraine, and the guy is like, uh ... And you're talking the head, the main s- the g- the head spy of Russia, so it's a bad man. It's not a ... This is a killer, bro. Okay? And he was basically up there saying, "Well, Mr. Putin, uh, I think we should maybe try and negotiate a little bit more." He's like ... And then he gave him the death stare. He's like, "Uh, are you saying that we should negotiate more?" He said, "No, no, no, no. I don't s- I don't ..." Like, basically you could see the fear-
- CWChris Williamson
Why was this televised?
- TNTom Nash
Oh, he televised the whole thing. There was, like, this kangaroo hoard, so he put all of them, like, uh, he was at the head of the table. Like, 30 meters away, they all got a chair, and he went one by one asking his head advisors if they should invade Ukraine or not.
- CWChris Williamson
So that, is that basically a test of compliance? It's will you say yes to me when I want to do ... Like-
- TNTom Nash
No.
- CWChris Williamson
Everybody knows what he wants to do. Is he actually-
- TNTom Nash
No.
- CWChris Williamson
... looking for pushback?
- TNTom Nash
It's a theater. He's not looking for pushback. It's a theater.
- CWChris Williamson
Right. Okay. Yeah. So that's-
- TNTom Nash
It's a theater for sup-
- CWChris Williamson
That's, that's what I mean. Can you try ... Just one thing that I've thought there. Obviously, you speak Russian, um, and for everybody else, what we're doing is we're looking at the subtitles or the dubbing over the top. How would you characterize Putin's demeanor with the way that he speaks? You know? We have people like a Barack Obama who's quite a powerful orator, sort of a peaceful calm. How would you characterize the way that Putin is?
- 16:17 – 24:00
Financial Sanctions Imposed on Russia
- TNTom Nash
Um-
- CWChris Williamson
All right. So take me back. We've got... That's the, the situation at least when the in- initial invasion occurred. Run through some of the financial sanctions that have happened and what the impact has been on Russia from that.
- TNTom Nash
Well, mainly, the main thing they did is, look, they, they took in- individual banks off of SWIFT, which is pretty much a death sentence, uh, to banks. SWIFT is, uh, basically a system where banks, a u- a unilater- uni- unified, uh, um, standardized system where banks can talk to each other to transfer money internationally. There's a ... I don't remember the full words, the ... It's an, it's, it's a, it's, it's a Belgian system. It's been adopted worldwide. If you take banks off of that system, it's pretty much you're screwed. Now, they did that and what m- mostly what was interesting is they also went for the Russian National Bank, not just individual... They went for the biggest banks in Russia, not all of them, but also they went for the central bank. They went-
- CWChris Williamson
When you say went for, what do you mean?
- TNTom Nash
They, they basically took it off, uh, partially from SWIFT. Now, here's the thing, uh, when they sanctioned the central bank and they're saying, "Nobody can touch that, nobody can work with this bank..." I mean, technically they can still transfer money, technically, but nobody in their right mind would do it because when you have the US and the EU and the rest of the world just literally, everybody is basically saying, "We're not, we're not dealing with you," it's basically, uh, they're taking away his war chest. That bank was the war chest that he built for this. So he created ... His central bank is sitting on $650 billion of cash.
- CWChris Williamson
In dollars?
- TNTom Nash
Uh, in foreign currency, various foreign currencies. Uh, some of it, 130 billion is in gold, which is, I mean, his to keep. I mean, that, that, that money we, we can't touch. But everything else is foreign currency, it's dollars and euros and whatever. It's, uh, it's a mixture. And-... them taking away, uh, about, uh, 500 out of the 640 billion and basically saying, "Hey, you can't touch this," it's really limiting, um, to what he can do because obviously it's gonna- it's gonna be a death sentence to the economy, for sure.
- CWChris Williamson
For an idio- for an idiot like me who doesn't understand how the financial markets work, when you say, "You can't touch this," that's- that's- I'm gonna guess that's technically not right. He- he could touch it. The point is that it's only useful if he's then able to trade it with a country that's prepared to buy it. And by being taken off of Swift, the f- the, uh, function that he was-
- TNTom Nash
Yep.
- CWChris Williamson
... able to exchange that... Okay, yeah, yeah. So it's not like the money's gone, but the only function that the money has is when it's in trade with another country. And because you can't do that because of Swift, that's now being killed.
- TNTom Nash
It's de facto it- the technicals are not that important. De facto is the money is not usable.
- CWChris Williamson
Yes. Yes, yes.
- TNTom Nash
Which is the important part. And when the money's not usable, it's basically there's a war machine that needs to be fed, and he doesn't have the finance to feed it. And the problem is when you have that... Look, it's an expensive war. Ukraine isn't, uh... You remember when he invaded to Georgia? Uh, not the state in the US. He invaded the country called Georgia. Uh, it's- it's- it's- it was a couple hundred- hundred thousand people. It's- u- Ukraine is one third of the size of Russia, and Russia is ginormous. Ukraine is a massive country, like 30, 40 million people. It's insanely, uh, i- it's insanely huge. I don't know if you know how to explain to you this. And the thing about Ukraine is, which is the second part where I think he- he d- he misunderstood my... what's going on, is that l- like with Germany, it basically came out and said, "You know what? This has gone too far. We're basically- we dare you not to send the- the gas to us." Because when Germany came out and said this, they're still- they're still on the gas. Eh, to my knowledge, there's not been any interruptions in the provision of gas because Germany's basically telling him, "Hey, we call your bluff. Like you need this as much as we need the gas."
- CWChris Williamson
Because they need-
- TNTom Nash
Russia-
- CWChris Williamson
... the money from Germany.
- TNTom Nash
They need the money when there's no war. 40% of Russian budget is digging shit from the ground and selling it to other people, bro. It's th- it's a rickety ass economy with no modern fucking basis. It just, the most unsophisticated economy in the world, bro. So when... Like almost half of your economy is selling energy. "So I dare you." They basically told him, "We dare you not to send- send the gas to us." "We- we- we dare," and he didn't. It- it's still going on. So they called his bluff. More importantly, what he didn't actually take into account is Germany saying, "You know what? We're done being, uh, we're done being like kumbaya around the campfire. We're gonna arm ourselves to the teeth. And because this diploma- diplomacy thing isn't working with you, you're crazy." So, and again, a certain amount of circumstances happened that he- I don't think he understood. When Angela Merkel stepped down, nobody really knew who Olaf Scholz is and what kind of guy he is. Apparently he's the kind of guy that don't take no shit from nobody, bro. Because he just came out on Friday, eh, eh, eh, and said, "Hey, yeah, we're gonna spend 100 billion euros this year on upgrading our military. And from now on going forward, 2% of our GDP, which is insane, bro, is gonna go to military. Because without the stick, this diplomacy thing is meaningless. We just saw what you did in- in Ukraine." So he basically created a unification of NATO. They're all on board right now. He's isolated, and Germany's basically becoming a fucking military superpower, which is exactly what he didn't want. So it's a gross miscalculation. Now, the main problem here is, and that- that boggles my mind how he didn't think about it. When Ukraine... Bro, some of the toughest people I know are Ukrainians, bro. Like, these are people m- I have Ukrainian friends who can live a whole week on a potato and a fucking egg, bro. Like you don't- you haven't seen toughness until you've seen some Ukrainian. Like, I'm not even exaggerating, bro. These are tough people. They live off the land. You know what they did to the Nazis, bro? Like, they would- they will hide in the woods for 20 years and fucking come and stab you in the ass every day. If you're talking about horrible guerrilla warfare, bro, and like partisans, like Ukraine is never gonna fucking be quiet, bro. Like Ukr-
- CWChris Williamson
This is what... So I- I said that I'd had that Jake Hanrahan, uh, conflict at the border on recently, and he was telling me that one of the problems that you have if Russia does end up taking... let's say it takes Kiev, right? That then once you've managed to stop moving forward, it goes house to house. It goes guerrilla warfare. It's- you don't know if the person that's walking down the street with the overcoat on is going to buy a bottle of milk or if he's got an AK-47 under there and a Molotov.
- TNTom Nash
Most likely he has an AK-47 because they fucking gave those out like candy, bro. Can you imagine a country that (coughs) that's giving out AK-47s? "Now come over to the townhouse, grab your AK-47 and a couple of magazines." (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. Fighting side by-
- TNTom Nash
I mean, that's crazy, bro.
- CWChris Williamson
... side by side with Vasily Lomachenko and Oleksandr Usyk.
- TNTom Nash
Bro, what about- what about the- the brothers, the- the Klitschko brothers, bro?
- CWChris Williamson
What are they doing?
- TNTom Nash
I mean, they're literally on the fucking barricades, bro, with the other guys.
- CWChris Williamson
Did I see-
- TNTom Nash
And I saw-
- CWChris Williamson
I saw a, a post on Instagram earlier on today saying that they'd shot some people. They were like, "Oh yeah, we killed 10 people today."
- TNTom Nash
(laughs) I don't... There's probably a lot more violence going on that we know of, and probably there's innocent people getting shot because when you arm citizens with AK-47s, there's a lot of people who are gonna unnecessarily get
- 24:00 – 34:57
Current Atmosphere in Russia
- TNTom Nash
hurt.
- CWChris Williamson
Can you try and... So I- I had this conversation about Ukraine. Obviously you've got friends, I'm gonna guess, that are still in Russia, maybe even-
- TNTom Nash
Yep.
- CWChris Williamson
... some extended family that are in Russia. What's the atmosphere like in there? What's the sense?
- TNTom Nash
Well, there was a... Russian CNBC was on today, and, uh, they had this lady talking to a guy who's like a professional, uh, bond trader and shit.... and he was basically saying, "You know what? I think I'm gonna have to look for a new job as a fucking Santa Claus, because this is gone." He's like, "Well, that's once a year," so he figured out, then he pops out a bottle of, uh, of booze and he just drinks it on air, he's like, "This is over." (laughs) It's, now it's comedic and it's kind of funny, but I mean, it's really sad if you think about it. Because the vast majority of people who are gonna get hurt by this are basically being held hostage, if you think about it. It's just regular people who want to go to work, come home, eat lunch, fuck their wife, go to bed, you know, wake up the next morning, do the same shit every day. They don't... I mean, I don't know a lot of Russian people who want Russia to be at war with Ukraine. It's, it's literally as crazy as R- as US going to war with Canada. It's unthinkable to me.
- CWChris Williamson
Is the split there majoritively age, do you think? Are you going to have people that are a little bit older that are probably gonna be more in support?
- TNTom Nash
No, it's crazy. Like, most, uh... Okay, so (laughs) it's crazy. So o- o- older people, they tell you, "Oh, we don't want the war in Ukraine, but we support Putin." The older people, they, like, they're in love with him. Uh, and the younger people are like, they're basically just like, "What the fuck is this? The hell is going on?" I mean, look, there's definitely... There's this, uh, theme that's, I've seen a lot of, uh, pseudo-experts talk about it, and they say, "Well, what if, uh, Canada, uh, signed a treaty with China for a strategic alliance and they put nukes on their border with the US? Would US not go to war with Canada?" I mean, theoretically, maybe. We don't know. But the fact is that we have a country that's been talking about joining NATO. There's, it's not even in the cards yet. They don't have any nukes because they gave their nukes up in 1994, by the way, for assurances by the West that they'll protect them if Russia ever invades. We saw how that played out. So a country with no nukes, they're not a part of the... Okay, they want to join NATO. Okay, I get it. But I totally, I totally understand why people are pissed off at this. It's like, this is completely uncalled for. It's, it's just senseless violence. And I think, personally, that there's a lot of religious elements to this. I think that he's 70 years old, or almost 70, and I think he has this fantasy of, of recreating whatever it was when he was the head of the KGB or whatever it was. So he was a pr-
- CWChris Williamson
But you said, you said on your video that to be a tsar, you can't just have one country, you need to have a kingdom.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
And right now, he doesn't have a kingdom.
- TNTom Nash
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
I would say, based on the videos that I've seen, it appears to be one insult after another by NATO pushing forward, doing things that they said that they weren't going to do, compromising on promises that they previously made. And then this is Putin. Maybe the timing is right with regards to the season, with regards to where the currencies are in America-
- TNTom Nash
Inflation.
- CWChris Williamson
... such and so... Yeah, yeah, I get that. But I don't know. I... Given what I know about the internals of his political movement, i- it kind of doesn't surprise me. There was going to come a point where this was going to happen.
- TNTom Nash
But let me ask you a question, Chris. NATO, if you look at the map from 1997 to right now, NATO has definitely expanded, and they took a lot of his former, um, allies with them. But the question I want to ask of you is one simple question. Okay, NATO is o- expanding beyond what was the original understandings when the Berlin Wall fell. So they... Basically, Russia got basically pushed aside and they said, "Hey, you don't matter anymore." Fine, that happened. And I understand the insult. Definitely understand the insult by somebody who grew up in that system, went through the humiliation, became, I think, a taxi driver after that, and had to climb all the way back. Like, he used to be a taxi driver after the collapse of the, of the USSR. So, so he experienced the brunt of it. Like, he was stationed in East Berlin, like, uh, KGB, blah, blah, blah, going up in the ranks and then... (blows raspberry) I understand that. But assuming all of it is 100% true, does this give you the right to say, "Well, NATO is overexpanding, so I'm gonna take this sovereign country, who does not do anything offensive against me, I'm gonna take this sovereign country and I'm just gonna grab it. I'm gonna bombard, fucking, the living hell out of it, and I'm just gonna take it because NATO is overexpanding." I mean, I don't see the justification here.
- CWChris Williamson
No, me neither, but I think it's too simplistic, the people that are accusing Putin of just being an idiot or a madman or a psychopath. The guy may be aggressive in nature and he may be prepared to do things where the tolerances don't make sense for other countries-
- TNTom Nash
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
... but, you know, step by step by step, I, again, I don't think that it's the right thing to do, obviously, because I'm not a psychopath, but...
- TNTom Nash
(laughs) I like that.
- CWChris Williamson
Like, it's, it, there is a logical progression that we've gone through here, right? To get Russia as a country to the stage where this has happened. It's not as if it's something that's just happened overnight. Again, the response isn't the way that it, it should have gone, but it does seem to me like the people that, uh... It, it, it's too simplistic and too basic of a, of an explanation to say, "Oh, it's just that-"
- TNTom Nash
No, no, I don't, I don't think he's just doing it because it, it's just a, it's just a James Bond villain.
- CWChris Williamson
Land-grabbing maniac.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah. Yeah, he's not a James Bond villain. This is not a movie. This is not like, "Ah." There's definitely, (coughs) there's definitely, um-
- CWChris Williamson
Calculation.
- TNTom Nash
... strategic thinking. Yeah, but also there's a very famous, uh, researcher that, uh, uh, passed away in the, in 1989, Barbara Tuchman. She used to write a lot about the political science and the geopolitics and the global politics.And she ... The m- one of the main lines that you can see throughout her, her work, is basically, she showed how some of the most i- influential critical decisions that were made on the global politics ring was driven by emotional impulsive responses by people who were at position of power. And she gives a lot of examples. The most amusing one (laughs) to me, was sh- her going back to the French Revolution and basically, well, how did Louis didn't understand what was going on, and basically she said, "Well, he was, he was busy with trying to figure out if Marie Antoinette was fucking around with his brother or not for the past two years before the revolution." He was fucking psychopathic, neurotic, jealous husband, so he completely, uh, missed the, you know, the doom, the doomsday scenario. But there's definitely a mixture, I think, of everything here. There's definitely a strategic thinking behind, well, w- he wants to clap back at NATO, uh, for sure. There's definitely, I think, him saying, "I'm gonna bring back the USSR," or at least some sort of a quasi-, uh, strong, uh, kind of, uh, Russia 2.0. And he's been very systematic with getting it done, by the way. For all intents and purposes, Belarus is no longer even Belarus. It's just a name. So, he already has the guy in place to replace, uh, um, to replace Zelensky. So ... However, at the end of the day, and here's where I think, uh, the problem lies, strategic, yes, emotional, somewhat for sure. But if you and I would have thought before that, given the balance of power, with the, with the European energy consumption, would Germany actually go all, like full-on ham on him like they did? And fucking militarize and sanction, like ... I don't think anybody could have seen Germany pull that stunt on him. I think he was as surprised as most, uh, analysts.
- CWChris Williamson
What's happened in the US stock market then? How has that responded?
- TNTom Nash
To be honest, somewhat okay. So oil price, I don't know if you follow the crude oil, but you don't give a shit. (laughs) It's, um ... So, um, we just came off of a ... I think a ... Usually like the price is in the $80s, $80 per barrel, it's tolerable. Uh, $100 per barrel is considered like a, "Oh, this is like a wartime pricing," right? We're currently at like 111, 112. So this happened (laughs) real fast. So oil prices, crude oil is going through the roof. Commodities is going through the roof, obviously. You know, Russia is, you know, wheat, palladium, aluminum, you name it, they, they, they dig shit from the ground over there. That's the whole, that's their whole business model, right? Uh, also what's happening in the US is very interesting. Military contractors are, are flying high. Uh, Raytheons, the General Dynamics, all of these are going, flying high. Cyber security is flying high, Fortinet, CrowdStrike. And even Palantir had a little bit of a, of a upswing, (laughs) even though they're kind of giving it back. But, uh, I think, in general, the US stock market has been fine. It had a little bit of a, of a kind of a invasion day slump, and then it's basically, you know, business as usual. It's going up. John Powell was on TV yesterday saying, "Hey, we're only raising interest just a little bit, just a tiny bit, just to feel how it feels like." And they basically, (laughs) everybody said, "Well, good. We're, we..." So, I would say largely un- unaffected. But the thing is, look, as big as Russia is, the exposure of the SAP500 to the Russian economy, honestly, is like 0.1%. It doesn't do anything. Bro, Russia is just a ... They dig shit from the ground, they sell mega energy and, and, and, and r- resources. There's not a technological hub, there's not a lo- Russian companies on, on NASDAQ or on the New York Stock Exchange. There's just not a lot of exposure. In banking, there is. Like, there's a few banks who have high exposure to Europe and Russia, but that's pretty much it.
- 34:57 – 50:05
Financial Tips in Crises
- CWChris Williamson
What are you doing then? So a lot of messages that I've had from friends over the last week or so has been around, "Shit, man, w- what's going to happen with the stock market? I've got investments, I've got crypto, I've got properties, I've got cash, I've got gold," not trying to, uh, capitalize from a, a wartime problem.
- TNTom Nash
A war, yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
But the, the, the other way to look at this is-
- TNTom Nash
You play defense.
- CWChris Williamson
... if people ... Well, yeah, precisely, that people who haven't done anything wrong, you know, just some guy in the middle of America who's been saving up and buying things and trying to invest appropriately could, if the situation was responded to more differently with the US stock market, could end up being wiped out by something that's happening on the other side of the planet. So, what's your personal strategy, or what would you say to people around, "Here are some things that I would probably avoid over the next however long, here are some places that I would keep an eye on," et cetera?
- TNTom Nash
Okay, so there's two questions here, and they have completely different answers. So, the more interesting question is crypto, which you ask, which is very smart. Because whatever just happened right now is a second proof of the importance of cryptocurrency just after what happened in Canada. So I'm not a big crypto guy, but I understand the importance of having decentralized currency. When just, you know, just little while ago, everybody was talking about Canada and the, the Canadian regulation basically allowing the government to dip into people's bank accounts and take money if they thought they were related to the protest, right? It's, it's crazy. (laughs) So proof number one. Then we have ... Couple weeks go by, now we have proof number two. Right now-And again, we're talking... Assuming we're talking about law-abiding, tax-paying, normal fucking engineers who don't give a shit about Russia or Ukraine, but they're stuck in fucking Russia and they need a way to feed their family, right? What do you have other than crypto, bro, to do that right now? The ruble is basically deflating faster than a, you know, a drunk man at a Thailand whorehouse. Basically, so it's worthless, or it's about to be. So if you ever needed a proof of concept of how crypto plays a role in modern economy, in this chaotic world, you had it. You have it right now. And pe- the main part is that people were attacking crypto for the past few years basically, well, it's not transactional. It's not transac- it's not transactional.
- CWChris Williamson
What's that mean?
- TNTom Nash
I mean, you can't go to a grocery store and pay with Bitcoin. It's, it's really complicated. The fees are expensive, it takes ti- it's complicated. It's not built for transactions. Well, some do, like, uh, there's certain... Not Bitcoin. There's more kind of, uh... I'm not gonna, uh, promote any here, but there's more transactional, uh, cryptocurrencies. But we're talking about Bitcoin, which is kind of the gold standard, because Bitcoin doesn't need me to advertise Bitcoin, come on. (laughs) But all I'm saying is, like, proof of concept of why it's important, you just saw it. Like, Russian government literally telling their people, "Hey, motherfuckers, 80% of your cash, convert it to rubles right now, or foreign currency," right? If you have Bitcoin, I mean, that's the perfect example of they can't touch you. And that's kind of the proof of why you want to hold it in a wallet and not in a proxy, you know, through a, through a brokerage. Because I've been d- having this debate with people, m- and it's like, "When is the government ever gonna force... 'Where you going?' Canada. 'Here you go.' In Russia." So, okay, so that part is true. So cryptocurrency just got a big boost, and that's why I think it's running up, because people are seeing, "Okay, this makes sense." As far as how to play defense in the market, again, I, I don't have any understanding in day trading or swing trading. It's not my expertise. I don't understand nothing in it. I'm a long-term investor. Most of the companies I invested in, my portfolio is very narrow. Palantir, Tesla, Google, S&P 500. That's the only stock I have in my portfolio. As a long-term investor, all I suggest you do is just fucking chill the fuck down. Just go watch some porn, take a walk outside, take a hike, drink some coffee, just relax, bro. Because the only thing you need to do, Chris, is just pull out the, not what you think, pull out the S&P 500 and expand it to a 10-year period, or a five-year, or whatever. You will see that no matter how much shit has been going on in the world, and believe me, for the past 10 years there's been a lot of shit going on in the world. People forget we had the 2008 crash in the US. We, we had so much gnarly stuff going on in the world. The S&P 500, which is the US stock market, the US economy, always going up, long-term. If you're a long-term investor, you literally don't give a shit about short-term volatility. So I- I'd... Playing around with your portfolio too much, first of all, you're creating tax disadvantages, at least in the US. Now, you're in the US, you should know this. You're creating sh- short-term capital gains. If you trade, uh, if you trade in and out of a stock on the year, you just, you just almost double your tax liability and completely killed your alpha. So that's, there's that. Now, beyond the fact, beyond the tax issues, uh, of course, unless you have it in the IRA or 401 (k) , nevermind. But beyond the tax issues, it's been statistically proven that there's a correlation between how much more you're active and how much more losses you get. Like-
- CWChris Williamson
No way.
- TNTom Nash
No, no, no. There's literally a stat, I have to find it somewhere. So the S&P 500 went up for the past 10 years like crazy, right? You can pull up the chart. 85% of people who was in the S- S&P 500 lost money. Only about 15% make money. Most people lose money in the stock market long-term, even though it always goes up, because most people are impatient. Warren Buffett literally said this. He said, "The stock market is a wealth transfer mechanism from the impatient to the patient." So the worst thing you can do is fiddle around with your portfolio and try to time the market. Just, again, if you're a swing trader, if you're a professional day trader, I don't, that's a whole different enchilada. I don't understand nothing. As the long-term, if your friends are long-term investors, just, you know, unless you pick garbage stock, which i- which is a, it's a, it's a, the whole different discussion, but you might have to, you know, fix your portfolio. But if you have solid conviction and you think you, you went for winners, what does the war in Ukraine change, really, bro? Okay, energy's gonna be more expensive for a while. Probably inflation is only gonna make it worse. Sure. But it's across the field. Everybody's... It's like playing soccer when it's raining or snowing. Everybody's in the same fucking pitch. It doesn't really matter.
- CWChris Williamson
Have you got, have you got any insight around people that are holding cash or real estate?
- TNTom Nash
Well, I'm not a rea- real estate guy, but the one asset that's been overperforming the market, and I'll, I'll tell you why, it's kind of an easy answer, is real estate. Real estate, again, real estate has been basically the best safe harbor. Like, when you have inflation, what's the one thing you want to do? You want to hold assets, not cash, right? So cash, real estate, they're kind of, they're the opposite sides of the same story, right? In low inflation, you want more cash. In high inflation, you want more assets, because if you have a home, it's worth whatever it is it's worth, so you don't need to be worried about inflation. The problem is with real estate, that what happened over the past two years, is again, you- you're on the ground, so you've seen this happen. The prices of real estate, because everybody understands this simple concept, right? The prices have lost all, like, bro, Justin and I was talking, he just sold his ous- like, the, it's just, it gotten so bad, it literally killed Opendoor and Zillow, bro. (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
What's that?
- TNTom Nash
Because people are like... It's the apps where you sell your house online with the... Opendoor was Chamath's back, and like Zillow. Like people are like, "We don't need no help selling our house, bro. We... There's no need, bro. Look, it's, like, we can double our money right now." So everybody's rushing towards real estate. So the, it becomes very dangerous.Like, you just need to be careful. Again, you're probably more of a real estate guy than me, but conceptually, I would just be, you know, not trying to park my money unless I can get a good deal. And getting a good deal in
- CWChris Williamson
It's the same in the UK. UK market's on fire at the moment. There was-
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
One of my buddies just sent me a stat around Rightmove, which is our equivalent of... You might even have it, it might work out here in America. And it had its busiest day ever. Ever. The most number of new properties and the, the highest volume of traffic not long ago.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Why?
- TNTom Nash
And it's not like inflation is going away, Chris. I mean, we're at seven and a half right now. If energy prices keeps going up, inflation is n- not gonna come down. It's simple. Because what do you need to make everything?
- CWChris Williamson
Energy.
- TNTom Nash
Energy. Energy's more expensive there. There you go. Simple. Not to mention the fact that you've pumped in five and a half trillion dollars into the system, that somehow... It's like eating five trays of pizza, bro. You have to shit it out (laughs) before you can go for a run. I mean, it's that simple, bro.
- CWChris Williamson
What do you think is gonna happen in the medium to long term then?
- TNTom Nash
Oh, that's a, that's a great question. If... Assuming that... Look, the US has... I can only talk about the US. The US has an inflation problem that is kind of the perfect storm. Whenever you have a really bad situation, it's a combination of r- of, uh... You know, I, I always give the example of the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl, in Chernobyl. Like, it was such an improbable event. So much had to go wrong in the same sequence for this shit to happen. But when it does, it's catastrophic, okay? So the US inflation problem is literally a combination of things that are... What are the odds? Well, there you go, those are the odds. This, this has just happened. Like, M- Murphy, Murphy's Law, bro. So the US problem is, number one, obviously they printed a lot of money. E- every kid knows that, that's the easy part. Uh, so there's supply chain shortages. Okay. T- where people were more at home and now you have, uh, you have issues with basically the trucking industry, the, the logistic, uh... Like, it's not easy right now getting people out of, uh, out of their homes. It started with COVID, but now people are basically saying, "Well, I can just fucking do affiliate marketing from home and make more money, right? Why would I want to go drive a truck, not be around my family for three weeks, right?" So, you have to pay more to attract drivers or, uh, people who work in the logistical industry. So you pay more, obviously it's inflation. So, um, and you have zero rate interest, which means everybody's spending. If you have zero rate interest, why would you hold your money in the bank? There's no point in saving money. 0% interest, so everybody's spending. So a lot of money in the system, crazy spending, logistical hardships, and on top of it, the US now has to face what they've neglected for the past 30 years. There's a major problem on the West Coast, where all the goods from China... Or not all. A lot of, a lot of the goods from China are coming in from two ports, which is Long Beach and LA. And those two ports, when it was, um, when it wasn't as crazy as now, it kind of held its own somewhat. It was, you know, uh, like, uh, it, it was up there, it was a little bit tough. But they, they, they held their own. But now when basically we have this sit- where they don't have the employees, where they don't... They literally, bro, they've literally not been sending crates and, uh, and containers back to China, because they don't have the manpower or the time to load it back on the ships going back, which has created an insane cost to, to, to containers, which is exaggerating i- i- the problem. So, the US has to fix their fucking infrastructure, as far as the port system goes, as far as the trucking industry. There's... Like, look, think of it this way. On top of this, this, all this situation I just described to you, if you can just raise interest rates, you would have probably alleviated a lot of the problem. If the government would say, "Hey, listen." Like they did this in the '80s. There was a Fed chair, his name was Paul Volcker, and he did this in the '80s, he said, "Look, 15% interest right now." That's a, that's a major... That's like pulling the handbrake when you're going on the freeway, bro. So you might crash. Well, you're probably gonna crash, but you're gonna stop for sure. The problem is i- when Paul Volcker did this, we didn't have a US debt the size of our GDP. We literally have 100% size of US national debt compared to GDP. So, we are servicing a lot of debt. So every percentage point we raise on the interest to slow down the market is gonna cost $270 billion, give or take a few, a few dollars. So, re- why is the Fed now saying, "Oh, okay, just 0.25%?" Because they literally can't afford to do more. And when I say can't afford, it's, they can always print more money. But what happens if you print more money to service the debt? You're basically just creating more cash in the system, basically making inflation worse. So, there's, they have to figure out... And there's long theories on how you can get this done. There's, you can, uh, create, you can roll over a lot of... It's getting boring, so I'll do it quick. The US is like, when you know when you take a mortgage and you go to the bank, right? And they tell you, "Okay, what kind of mix you want?" And you say, "Well, I don't want to put everything on just fixed. It's gonna be expensive, right? Give me like half and half, right? I'll take half fixed and half variable, because the variable is fucking cheap." So this is what the US government has been doing. And that, that was okay. But now, half, or I think more than half (laughs) of their US national debt is basically dependent on the interest rates. So they're super sensitive to interest rates. So they can pretty much say, "Hey, we're just going over to, we're rolling over a big chunk of our national debt to a 30 year, which is fixed. And then we're gonna pay a little penalty, like, uh, three, 400 million, billion, sorry. Three, 400 b-..." Because there's a difference. I think it's like one and a half percent difference, or 2%. "So we're gonna take the penalty, we'll pay the 400 billion, whatever it is. But we're gonna stop any concerns of interest rates. Then we don't give a fuck."... and we could raise interest rates and fix this. This would be one solution. It has its problems. The other solution would be to outgrow GDP out of the debt, which basically means reducing taxes, deregulating everything, let the economy go boom. But there's political issues with doing that. I mean, a democratic government lowering taxes doesn't really work. So they're stuck in this limbo, so the Fed and the government need to figure out a way to work together. Until the government provides a pl- a viability for the Fed to raise interest rates, the Fed is going to basically be stuck saying, "Well, we've decided not to raise interest rates." A prob- (laughs) sh- because they can't. They literally are- are jammed until the government does something about the debt. So that's kind of my little quick primer about what's going on with inflation.
- CWChris Williamson
It seems fucked.
- TNTom Nash
Yes. Uh, and you know what? Alternative explanation, we're fucked. (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
This seems fucked. (laughs)
- TNTom Nash
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Dude.
- TNTom Nash
They'll figure it out. I- They- Th- Look, we paid them to figure it out. We pay them to sleep at night and not worry about these things. Let them worry about the aliens and the- and the- and the national debt and all the stuff. We don't want to know, bro.
- 50:05 – 59:37
Becoming a Father
- CWChris Williamson
inflation and stuff like that?
- TNTom Nash
I'm worried about being a good dad, man. That's the only thing I'm concerned about. I've figured out-
- CWChris Williamson
Do you struggle with that?
- TNTom Nash
Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
What do you struggle with?
- TNTom Nash
I have high standards of myself. I'll give you an example. So my- my dad, he was a cool dude, but he was a little bit of an absentee dad. Not in that bad sense, he was just working a lot. You know what I mean? He was a good dude. Always, like, no issues. I love them and I- I love him. He's still alive. I mean, we have a good relationship. Could always give him a call. But, I mean, uh, we didn't do jack shit together, ever, 'cause he was always working. That's why initially I quit my job. Basically, I said, "I'm not gonna be that guy." So I- my- my midlife crisis when I hit 40 was basically quitting my job and basically being a, like, more of a dad. Now, it's gotten to a point where I'm so fucking critical of myself. So my wife was away for two days and I was alone with the three kids on my own, and I had to organize them in the morning to go to school. And the first day, it was a complete... It was like Putin invading Ukraine, bro. It was-
- CWChris Williamson
Shit show.
- TNTom Nash
... screaming at them. They're fucking crying. It's like getting to school late, they're all fucking... Like, I, the whole day I'm sitting in the corner fucking shaking. How the fuck-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
... did I just fucking ruin this fucking morning? Like, and, like, they forgot about it in 20 minutes, but I'm like-
- CWChris Williamson
Yes.
- TNTom Nash
... my whole day's fucking gone to shit, bro.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- TNTom Nash
I was like, "How? How, motherfucker?" Like, and then I made the decision. I said, "Okay, so we have two more days. I'm gonna make it, like, as magical as possible, and I'm gonna be, like, not the perfect dad, but I'm gonna, I'm not gonna fucking let it happen again." And then the next days, bro, I'm k- I kid you not, there are people like, "Oh, Palantir is down 12%." Like, "Motherfucker, I just had the best two days with my kids, bro. It was all fucking clockwork." Nobody... Like, everybody's happy. Took them out for ice cream. Mornings were like (snaps fingers) everything was fucking legally split. I was like... They're like, "Oh, Tom, are you not concerned about..." No, motherfucker. That's the thing that I'm obsessing about. That's where I'm at right now in my life. Uh, I couldn't give less fucks.
- CWChris Williamson
Dude, I have a bunch of friends who are unbelievable high achievers, athletes, coaches, businessmen, and the thing that they struggle with is their ability to be a dad. Uh-
- TNTom Nash
It's tough.
- CWChris Williamson
They, uh... So I'm not- I'm not a dad. At least, not one that I know, uh, and-
- TNTom Nash
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
... and, um, but I can't, I can't wait to be one, but (sharp inhale) the test, man.
- TNTom Nash
Oh, it's the most, uh, it- it's the most exhilarating feeling ever. But when you fail at that occasionally, it's soul-crushing, bro.
- CWChris Williamson
High stakes.
- TNTom Nash
Like, and s- and sometimes they ask you the craziest shit, like my six-year-old asks me, uh, it's like, "How do- how do a- a boy and a girl create a baby?" (laughs) He's like... Or my older one is like, "Why do we... How do we know that God isn't Black?" Like- (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
... they ask you the craziest shit. I don't know!
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
Like, I don't know. Like, what? It's like, they- they'll come up with some crazy ass... And my, my four-year-old son, he has a photographic memory, bro. Don't forget jack shit. So he would come up, "Hey, two weeks ago you promised me this and this and that. I've been waiting for two weeks. Where the fuck is this?" And he's four, bro. And he doesn't forget if you tell him s-... So it's- it's- it's- it's- (sighs) it's a tough gig, bro. But when you hit it right, it's like hitting that home run, like poof. It's like, it's better than sex, bro. When you hit it right, when you're having, like, a perfect day, this is the best feeling ever, bro.
- CWChris Williamson
What do you need to work on, then, if you were to look at your stats?
- TNTom Nash
Patience. Patience. Uh-
- CWChris Williamson
Patience. Dude, it's the, that's the answer that every guy that I know gives.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah, man. When you lose it, it's too late. You can't bring it back. You know what I mean? Because kids, they don't grasp it as like, "Oh, I fucked up, so Dad is pissed off." They're like, "Oh, Dad is screaming at me. Angry Dad." You know what I mean? You're the meme.
- 59:37 – 1:09:41
Complications of Financial Advice
- TNTom Nash
if it was-
- CWChris Williamson
Talk to me, because I, I, I found this fascinating. Every time that I speak to finance guys, they seem to fall into one of two brackets. One of them is the earn high, spend high, and the other one is sort of earn appropriate, spend low.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
And that's the Morgan, that's the Morgan Housel thing, that money is the ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, and no one can tell you otherwise. But the only way that you can win at the game of finance is to stop moving the goalposts. Every time that you decide that you're going to make an amount of money-
- TNTom Nash
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... and then once you've made that amount of money, you decide to either spend it or up your liabilities to the stage where you've now reset, that's, y- y- you can't put the ball into the goal if the goal continues to move away from you every time that you get closer to it.
- TNTom Nash
It's the recipe to being unhappy, man, what you just described. It's literally the recipe. It's, uh... There's a name for this. Spencer Coin, uh, he told me this. He di- he didn't invent it, but the... I forgot the name.
- CWChris Williamson
No, hedonic adaptation.
- TNTom Nash
Yes. Thank you. Oh.
- CWChris Williamson
Yes.
- TNTom Nash
I feel like I just sneezed.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
Thank you.
- CWChris Williamson
So satisfying when that happens.
- TNTom Nash
Yes. Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Dude, I was walking, I was walking down the street the other day with my buddy in Austin, and I was trying to remember this guy's name. And then he caught on to who it was that we were trying to remember, and we were walking to a smoothie bar, and both of us were walking down the street, like, hitting our heads, like shaking-
- TNTom Nash
Yeah, trying to figure out what the fuck is this.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, someone driving past must have thought, "What the actual fuck are those two people doing?" We're having a, a psychotic episode as I'm walking down the street-
- TNTom Nash
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
... desperately trying to remember this dude's name. And then one of us got it, and it was like someone had just won the lottery. We're like, "Fucking yes! Yes!"Yes!
- TNTom Nash
It's, uh, it's cathartic when you, when you have that moment. So thank you for that.
- CWChris Williamson
So good.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah. Thank you. You just gave me that.
- CWChris Williamson
Good.
- TNTom Nash
Uh, look, the thing is, have you ever bought something that you never thought you would be able to afford?
- CWChris Williamson
A house.
- TNTom Nash
Okay. Well, a house is a utilitarian thing, but even a house actually fits into this, okay? Let's say that you buy a fucking $3 million mansion, okay? For the first two weeks, you're gonna be like, "Oh, shit, the pool and the fucking gym and the fu-" Bro, week three, you don't even give a fuck anymore. It's just a house, bro. It just a- it has zero, uh, added value to your happiness. You had it for two weeks. And it's the same thing, bro, you can go all the way up to helicopters, fucking yacht and it will always be the first two weeks, you're gonna be fucking jizzing over it, and then you don't give a fuck anymore. It's just a thing. Okay. So there's no point in chasing fucking happiness through things. It sucks being broke, and I guarantee you that your relationship will suffer if you're fucking broke and you can't fucking provide for your family. But as long as you're not broke and you can still provide for your family, everything else is fucking not necessary. Bro, I can, like, people ask me, "Tom, why don't you fucking sell a course?" I mean, uh, Kevin sells a course a thousand bucks a pop, and he makes like what, two, three million a month? Bro, I don't even know how much you make. Like, I could do that probably, and probably I can do a good course, which people will like and not hate me for, but like, why? I'd be basically chasing something I don't need and adding more responsibility on me. Like, I find it really enjoyable just to come online and fucking rant about shit and have zero accountability, responsibility, bro.
- CWChris Williamson
Do you not think that the information that you've got and the insights that you could give people would be able to help them make more money, make better financial decisions in their life?
- TNTom Nash
Okay. Good question, and I'll tell you yes, but still it's, it's very dangerous. You remember the backlash that MeetKevin got when he-
- CWChris Williamson
No.
- 1:09:41 – 1:16:26
YouTube Recommendations
- CWChris Williamson
... Him, you, Philion, Spencer. Like I could watch ... Barely Sociable. I, I could watch this shit all day. All day.
- TNTom Nash
You know who I watch and I enjoy his videos, even though you ... There's a guy, his name is Bald and Bankrupt. This is a guy who basically-
- CWChris Williamson
Bald and Bankrupt?
- TNTom Nash
Bald and Bankrupt. So (laughs) he's, he's kind of ... He's n- ... I mean, he's my age, so he's old. So he just, uh, he grabs a GoPro and he goes to these fucking crazy places. Like, uh, lately he's been geeking over Eastern Europe, just looking for like ... He'll go to some, uh, post-Soviet village where he can find like a mosaic in the city square that's from the USSR. (laughs) He'll, like, get into people's houses and fucking drink illegal booze with them, like, uh, in Russia. Like crazy sh- ... Like you have to ...
- CWChris Williamson
So is it, is it vlogs? It's kind of like vlogs?
- TNTom Nash
Yes, but it's like ... Bro, I can't explain to you why it works. It's like-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
... when I, I say vlogs, you're like, "What?"
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- TNTom Nash
I say, "IRL," like, "What?" IRL vlogs? What? No, but his is actually ... It's very good. I, I can't explain it. It's, uh, it's, it's, it's brilliant.
- CWChris Williamson
Who else do you watch?
- TNTom Nash
Uh, I watch his stuff a lot. Um, I'm, I'm gonna be honest with you. Sometimes I watch DramaAlert. (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, yeah. Fuck. Didn't you tell me, didn't you tell me that they were getting involved in this Russia shit?
- TNTom Nash
In Russia. Yeah, they made a video called-
- CWChris Williamson
What, what's happening there?
- TNTom Nash
They made a video called Russia Canceled. (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- TNTom Nash
I love Keemstar, uh, he has such a nice way of serving you a burger when you just want a burger. You know what I mean? I love that, uh, "Here's a burger." Uh, h- h- ... I watch a channel called Mustard. Nobody has heard of it. Mustard is a engineering channel, so he'll break down ... Like, create ... Like it's for super geeks. Like, uh, warships from World War II and how they were used.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, I'm a fan of, I'm a fan of stuff like that.
- TNTom Nash
So it's called Mustard, M-U-S-T-A-R-D. He breaks down old trains. Uh, what's, what's brilliant about this channel, th- the narration is per- ... Is amazing. Research is amazing. He makes the most beautiful 3D models of the old stuff he's talking about that don't exist anymore. He almost kind of brings them back to life. Like he did a whole video about the Buran. The Buran was supposed to be a Soviet, uh, version of the, uh, of, uh, of the space shuttle. It was never, it was never ... It was almost fini- ... And so he brought it back to life. He br- ... Or he b- ... He brings shit back to life that don't exist anymore. And it's, it's just, it's just so beautiful, bro. Uh, it's almost ... It's as pleasing visually as it is to hear about this stuff.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah.
- TNTom Nash
Like he did a whole video about the Shinkansen and how, like the origins ... The Japanese bullet train, and how it started out, how it was complete failure. And the ... Like crazy shit, bro. Really good channel. You, you'd love this channel. I'm telling you right now.
- CWChris Williamson
It's, it's wild. Some of the ones that go and do this unbelievable deep dive are the ... Just insane. Like, Dagogo that does, um ... Shit, I remember the ... I forget the channel's name. Anyway, like this Australian dude who does these unbelievable ... Jake Tran, bro. Jake Tran does-
- TNTom Nash
Phenomenal.
- CWChris Williamson
... documentary level videos three days a week just 'cause-
- TNTom Nash
I don't know how. I don't know.
- CWChris Williamson
Well, he's got ... I, I, I think he's got a big editing team that's below him now. But still, like the research his, the production is mostly his, the recording's all his. And he was still putting that out when he first started. There's a-
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
There's a ... This channel called Melody Sheep. Have you heard of that?
- TNTom Nash
... no.
- 1:16:26 – 1:25:08
Putin’s Ego
- TNTom Nash
uh, I w- before, uh, you, you let me go to sleep, because, uh, I told you I'm not in my 100%, I wanna ask your opinion about something.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- TNTom Nash
So you're kind of a student of the game, and not that kind of game. But do you think there is a way, psychologically speaking, because you don't know the guy, that, uh, Putin actually can not, uh, demolish everything around him and just go back home and said, "Well, this was not a good idea"? I fear that his ego would not allow him to do it anymore.
- CWChris Williamson
I think, based on what very little I know about the man, I would say that seems incredibly unlikely.
- TNTom Nash
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, it's a huge embarrassment on the world stage. It would involve everybody mocking Russia as a global power for a, a very, very long time. It would mean that everybody else would feel like maybe he called our bluff, but he wasn't actually holding the cards in his hand that he said he was. So he's gonna start to be bullied or I mean, the sanctions that he gets long-term. Let's say that he does decide to turn around and go back to Russia. Okay, so you've suffered. The Russian people have got all of these problems. The ruble's gone through the floor. You can't use SWIFT. You've spent all of this money. You've lost all of these soldiers. You've lost all of this military hardware. And for what? You know? So there's a, um, a gambler's fallacy thing here-
Episode duration: 1:26:12
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