Modern WisdomThe New Silk Roads | Peter Frankopan | Modern Wisdom Podcast 108
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
135 min read · 27,306 words- 0:00 – 15:00
But these are questions…
- PFPeter Frankopan
But these are questions that our politicians need to be thinking about, need to be listening to researchers and trying to work out how do we try to correct that. How do we make this country a fairer place? How do we make it environmentally safer? How do we look after our natural habitats? How do we become more tolerant? How do we encourage people who are- who look different, behave differently, want to worship in a different way? How do we get all sides to sit around the table and, and work out how to pull together? And, um, you know, there is a price that you pay if you start to get that wrong. (whoosh)
- CWChris Williamson
I am joined by Professor of Global History at Oxford and Director at the Oxford Centre for Byzantine Research, Peter Frankopan. Peter, welcome to the show.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Hi, there.
- CWChris Williamson
Very good to have you here. Uh, I am holding a copy of The New Silk Roads.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Yep.
- CWChris Williamson
Many of the listeners will be familiar with your first book, Sunday Times bestseller. And, uh, we got a new one now, talking all things China and Asia and stuff in a area of the world that we never really know much about.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Well, um, th- I, I wrote the first book about ... I mean, I'm, I'm interested in, in all parts of history. I'm interested in looking as far and as wide as possible. A- but when I was a- when I was a young boy at school, um, I, I got fed the same stuff year after year after year. I got, I got told about Henry VIII and his wives and about the First World War and the awfulness of the trenches and about how bad Hitler was. And all of that is, is important that we learn about, but I never learned about anything else. Apart from that, I never heard the word Ottoman Empire or Byzantines. I heard a little bit about, about Russia, but not a great deal, about the Russian Revolution, but I couldn't understand why, I'm a lot older than you, Chris, I couldn't understand why people were trying to point nuclear weapons at us. We had drills once a month at my school on a Friday at two o'clock to hide under our desks. And, you know, I watched the news growing up and I heard about the Cambodian, b- you know, about the war and genocide in Cambodia or about China changing and then Tiananmen Square when I was 18. And, um, I, I was very interested about why was it that these parts of the world, like as you just said, we never spent any time talking about? And, um, I guess there are two different questions, two different reasons, uh, for the subjects I'm interested in, is first, well, what, what is interesting in these countries? You know, what, what did happen that was important and interesting? W- what are the stories that are important and interesting for people my age or, or younger than me, older than me in other countries? But also how have we managed to write our own history about current affairs too where the only thing that matters is ourselves? And, you know, today we're talking on a day where we had lots of dramatic developments about our political system here in Britain about prorogation, this sort of very unusual word about Parliament being pushed to one side. And, and for us I, I understand that really matters, w- what happens in Britain and how we get our relationship with Europe right. But, you know, for 99% of the world's population, it really doesn't matter. You know, if you're in Downtown Shanghai tonight or in Mumbai or in Cape Town or in Sao Paolo or Mexico City or in Lagos, you know, the irrelevance of what a bunch of men and women are doing in, in Parliament in London, um, i- it's important to remind ourselves of that because we are living in a world that's changing very fast. And I sometimes think that, that we have this very imperial way of looking at our, our own importance. You know, I suppose it's fair to say a- any country you look at yourselves first. You know, of course you study your own heroes, your own history, your own problems about politics and eco- economy and so on, but in that big picture, you know, 100 years ago it, it mattered a lot to the rest of the world. You know, a quarter of the world's population in 1914 owned their allegiance, or notional allegiance I s- should say to the King of England. And that world, unless I missed something-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... you know, really has gone. You know, we've got great footballers, we've got lots of stuff in this country that we should be proud of, our, our business, our museums, our scholarship and so on. But, you know, it's that, that age where, uh, men and women in, in London shaped the world is over. And in a way today having been out on the road and driving b- uh, you know, being in the car and listening to the radio hour after hour after hour the only thing that's been spoken about has been about, about Brexit and about Westminster politics. And I, you know, I just think that sometimes you, you, you can be so worried about what's going on in your own life that you can forget about the bigger picture. And so my books, uh, I tried to put context into wh- how things have happened in the past, what's going on in the future, and trying to signal in this new book about a little bit about what's coming, what's coming towards us too.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. I- it's, it's interesting what you say. I wonder how many other countries, and you will be able to shed some light on this I'm, I'm sure, how many countries are living within this filter bubble where they're so primarily concerned with their own concerns because that's the case. And how much, uh, is especially a curse bestowed on us in perhaps the UK and potentially the USA which has been grandfathered in, this archetype of a time gone by where you're totally right, we were ruling a significant portion of the world, so therefore we were important. So is it, is it worse in the UK than it is elsewhere, do you think?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Uh, n- no. No, listen, I think, I think it's fair to say that e- everybody has a rose-tinted spectacles when it comes to looking at their past. A- and everybody, you know, wants to, um, think that they're i- important. That's completely reasonable. Um, you know, that's clearly in, in case of the United States, for example, a real challenge where the mindset is about cold war and about managing a process. A- and about the, you know, the belief for obvious and perfectly logical reasons too that America is the world's greatest democracy, the world's most powerful country and so on. And so the way in which you look at the people around you of course is, makes a difference. I suppose the, the easiest way to answer the question is, um, I, I'd have thought if you put, put up a picture of David Beckham or Tom Cruise in any city in the world everybody would know who that guy, that, that they are. Right? Pick a film star, pick a, pick a pop star, pick Taylor Swift, you know, pick whoever you want, you know, um, they have worldwide renown because other people spend a lot of time looking at us. Right? We have a lot of, lot of tourists coming from all over the world to London, to Paris, New York and so on really keen to learn and to learn the stuff we do well and I guess right now to learn the stuff we don't do so well. You know, it's a- it's a very interesting moment again with, with the Brexit stuff going on right now to be thinking about how does that look to other countries? How does it look when a prime minister...... bypasses parliament, or looks like he's trying to bypass parliament, uh, to get his own way. You know, that, that, that says something very specific to countries where dictators or authoritarian leaders have very little regard for the pol- for the political process. So, um, I think that the truth is, is that most other countries are quite good at looking at, maybe not all other countries, but they're quite good at looking at Britain, quite good at looking at France, quite good at looking at United States, quite good at looking at Russia. So I think if you asked, you know, s- school-aged kids or university or t- tertiary education kids around the world, um, what they know about Europe, they'd be generally quite clued up. Whereas I'd have thought you could walk into the highest performing, high number of A* possible in any degree course you want, and ask a very basic question about China, you know, who is the, who is the most important Chinese emperor? Not a good one, not a bad one, not a fat one, not a thin one, just name one.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Most people can't, right?
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Who's the most important... Who, who, you know, who are the most important African musicians? And it's not just history, uh, that boring stuff people like me like doing in libraries and traveling, right? You know, who are the big film stars in India or the Nigerian film, which is, you know, the, uh, growing at huge rate, and in fact employs a lot of people in the UK in terms of editing, in terms of distribution, in terms of the rest of it. You know, we are very disengaged because we expect people to come to us. And I suppose there are interesting points in history where, where that is a sort of symptom of imperial decline. When you get lazy, the other people come to you. You don't even, you need to bother learning other peoples' languages. You don't need to bother watching anybody else's football league, 'cause it's obvious our football league is better than everybody else's.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs) .
- PFPeter Frankopan
And the reason ours, uh, is better than anybody else's, by the way, of course, is 'cause we, we pay the players more than anybody else. And as a result, that means that the glory is that much higher. That means the only people who can afford to buy football clubs are the ultra, ultra, ultra rich. You know, you up in Newcastle at the time being have still got, uh, Mike Ashley, you know, who made his, made his mint, made, made his mint in here, here with his, with his clothes distribution in the UK. But my team, Chelsea, from my sins, you know, bog-standard team in the '70s and '80s when I grew up, up and down between the top two teams. You know, it's owned by a Russian oligarch wh- whose money comes from minerals and oil from Siberia and elsewhere, you know. And, you know, Manchester City, the champions of England, are owned by essentially the ruling family of Abu Dhabi. Paris Saint-Germain, the best French team, and they're not great, the French teams, but, you know, about to sell Neymar, owned by the ruling family of Qatar. You know, so this is a new world where, where rich people are coming from different parts of the world. You know, Leicester City that won the league had a, had a Thai owner. You know, Everton up the road, um, you know, from, from Manchester, were, with an Iranian man who made a lot of money with an Uzbek tycoon, who used to, by the way, own a third of Arsenal. So, you know, this world looks to us very unfamiliar because we are asleep, you know. We don't think about how other people are becoming wealthy. We don't think about other systems of government. We assume everybody wants to be like us. We assume, therefore, that, well, we shouldn't, we shouldn't really have to work too hard, you know. So we'll go away on holidays to different countries, but, you know, no need to learn any other words. No need to say please, thank you. You know, the Brits are pretty good, you know. I, I find any part of the world you go to, you know, Southeast Asia, up country Laos, you could bet your bottom dollar when you hear somebody in the, uh, breakfast, they're gonna be from England or somewhere. You know, we, we, we have got that traveler spirit in us. But by and large, our education system has shut that down, our curiosity's shut it down. The digital era is a, is a real challenge through all that because it streamlines choices. So it's a very long answer to a simple question, you know, are people better at it than we are? Uh, you know, I, I don't want to overclaim, uh, for other, for other countries. You know, I don't wanna say that other people are, are all getting it right. But by and large, other countries are much better at trying to work out how to deal with other people who are different. And, you know, some of that starts with basic things like language. You know, our, our bilingualism in this country, if you don't have a parent from a different country, there's almost zero chance that you'll speak another foreign language. And, you know, look at our friends across the, across the North Sea in, in Hol- in the Netherlands. You go into am- into Amsterdam, people will answer you in five or six, seven different languages. And that would seem, to me, b- better preparation, doesn't mean you're gonna get it right, but better preparation to understand that people don't always look like you do, don't always think like you do, that you've got to, you've got to work out how to negotiate. And, um, I've learned, you know, we were just talking before we started talking about, about having dinner and, and who does the cooking and stuff, and, you know, you learn in successful friendships and successful relationships, successful relationships with parents, families, loved ones and so on, that compromise and negotiation is the key, and communication is the key to everything. And I think in, in Britain for all sorts of reasons, partly we have a, you know, very proud past to think about, that, that also throws a shadow over us, where we just assume that our place in the world is taken for granted. And I think as the world gets more complicated, as the world gets, uh, more dynamic in other corners of the world and let alone in Europe, we have to be thinking very carefully about how to prepare the next generations for that.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, you're totally right. The fact that other countries have to bend around the incumbent leaders, so to speak, globally, which are, I guess traditionally ourselves and obviously America and those countries, you, you're totally right. All of the people who are listening that are British will know what it feels like to go somewhere on holiday and just expect the other country to speak your language. It's so tropey, though isn't it?
- PFPeter Frankopan
But, you know, it's, it's great for everyone. But, but, you know, but by and large pe- you know, people love the Brits. I mean, there are gonna be hotspots where we don't do ourselves proud and moments every year when, you know, things go wrong. But, you know, the, the Brit, you know, the Brits are famous around the world for having a good sense of humor. We're famous for our sense of justice. You know, we do try and get political decisions right. You know, we have a, you know, we have a s- a lot to be, a lot to be really proud of. But, you know, in, in the world that's, uh, mo- on the move around us with new technologies, with challenges coming towards us, you know, it's not surprising that other countries will say, "Look, look at the composition of the UN Security Council, for example," which in theory is the kind of global government to try to solve big problems. You know, i- is it right that you have Russia, France, Britain, uh, and China and no, not a single African permanent member?... not a single other Asian member like India or Pakistan, no one from the Middle East, you know, no one from South America. You know, and, and reflective of population sizes, the fact that we in Britain, with a population of 60 million, have a seat on the Security Council that's permanent, you know, is something which we shouldn't take for granted. You know, we should be able to explain why we are good custodians and why we're good for global governance. But again, those kind of arguments are quite tricky, where with Brexit, we're trying to say we can do things better than our 27 European neighbors. And, you know, I'm not on, I'm not on your podcast to try to lose half of the aud- or 48% or 52% of the audience. But, you know, we've got to think quite carefully about are we sure, empirically, that we make better decisions than other people, right? Whether they are European Union partners or otherwise. And there's a kind of an assumption, I think, amongst a lot of the Brexiteers that I talk to is that, that Britain makes good decisions on its own. And as a historian, I'm, I'm not interested in whether that's right or wrong, whether I feel it's right. I'm interested in measuring it. I'm interested in proving it. I'm interested in trying to assess and look at data to find out whether that's actually the case. And I think you can draw different conclusions from trying to assume that because we're decent people, we always do things right. Because the last century, um, you know, it's a pretty long list of shame as well as the glorious stuff too that we have to, to, to, to put on the, put on the, on the, on the balance sheet.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. You're totally right. So, um, relating The New Silk Roads, your most recent book, to its predecessor, how do these two relate and why did you write this new one?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Well, so the first big book I wrote, which is, you know, it's quite a chunky one and lots of footnotes, uh, explains how I think the history of the world looks from, from, you know, from, uh, across a couple of thousand years of why it is that always the peoples, the commodities like spices, uh, like silk, eventually things like oil and gas too, uh, quite recent, but you know, why it is that the spine of Asia and the heart of Asia has always been where empires have been shaped and formed, including the British Empire. The, the Persian Empire, Alexander the Great, you know, the great Greek general, you know, he didn't, he didn't, wasn't interested in conquering Switzerland and Germany and Scotland or getting up to Newcastle. And for Alexander the Great, it was all about conquering going eastwards, right? And so trying to explain why that's been so important in history. And, um, I, my book was published in, in 2015. And I spoke to my publishers about a year, about a year, year and a half ago, and I said, "Look, a lot has happened since then. You know, we've had the election of Trump. We've got the Brexit debacle that, you know, hasn't gone, you know, still hasn't been resolved. Um, the rise of new technologies, the more, the greater awareness of climate and climate change that's coming towards us. Uh, you know, Russia has had a very significant, uh, uh, process by, uh, post the invasion of Ukraine and Crime- annexation of Crimea. Uh, a lot of these countries are on the move. Um, India and Pakistan,
- 15:00 – 30:00
(laughs) …
- PFPeter Frankopan
in the last two years, you know, as close to a military confrontation as they have been for the last seven or eight decades." So I said to my publisher, "I'd quite like to write a new last chapter to bring it up-to-date." And they said, "Great. Give us 3,000 or 4,000 words," which is about, I don't know, 10 pages or something. And, uh, I s- I, I'm a sulker, so I went and sulked for a little bit.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
And then I said, "Look, I'd like to write something a little bit longer than that." And they said, "No, your book is already quite long, so adding an extra 60 or 70 pages doesn't cut the mustard." So I said, "Look, I'd quite like to write a, a sort of short book about it." And, um, that's what this one really is. It's kind of final chapter that looks at the last three or four years, where all these trends of confrontation of China and the United States through trade wars, uh, pressure on the European Union, whatever's gonna happen with it, I suspect Brexit is not going to be the last, last chapter by any means, and that, that, uh, movements in Iran, uh, with the collapse of the, the Iran nuclear agreement, that these parts of the world are, are all on the move. So it's a kind of br- m- it's a breezier read, uh, that tries to explain what it is that's really important today. And, and Brexit and Trump are, for sure, a part of that story. But again, the more important things, as a historian and I guess a commentator, I'm interested in resources. I'm interested in power. I'm interested in economic distribution, demographics. Where are people? Where, where, where do, where, if you landed from outer space and you said, "What really matters?" what's in your top 10? And, you know, it's an awful thing to say to people listening to this in the UK, but, you know, Brexit really isn't one of them. Uh, Trump is a different story. Uh, the direction of US foreign policy and economic policy does shape global affairs. Um, but, you know, so that, that gets a bit of attention in, in my book too. But this rise, this new changing world where we look in the developed world, you know, in Europe and, and the United States and so on, at people decoupling. You know, the story of the West, as I guess it's a broad world, you know, Canada is a part of that, Australia is part of that, the broad world or the West right now is about putting up walls, in some cases, literally. You know, whether that's in, in Dover or Cal- you know, stopping the current disconnect from, from Europe or United States with Mexico, it's about pulling out of things, about going it alone, being convinced that we can do things better. And in the parts of the world I'm interested in, all the story is about greater levels of connection. It's all about building roads, building railways, collaborating, working together, having free trade agreements. And, you know, some of that looks good on paper. And in reality, it's complicated. Lots of these countries, lots of these peoples, internally and, and with their neighbors, have very complicated relationships. Some of them can't stand each other. Some of them have real military, um, competi- military competition and arms races between them. And so sometimes, that kind of glossy, the glossy nice happy words all sounds one thing and, and in fact, the reality is much more serious. Whereas our pulling out, I think sounds really serious and in some cases doesn't make so much difference. But trying to balance that all together, the narrative about peoples across Asia is that, look, their time has come. This is two-thirds of the world's population living between Istanbul and more or less of Beijing. And that's where 85% of the world's rice is grown, 65% of the world's wheat, 80% of the world's oil and gas resources. And, and like I said, about 4 billion, 4.5 billion people. So it would seem to me if these populations grow richer or they become poorer or they suffer from climate change or they go to war, that's going to have a very dramatic impact on our lives. And actually, on balance-... uh, how trucks can move between Holland and, uh, Netherlands and Belgium doesn't really matter. It doesn't move the dial. The places that I look at, (coughs) population-wise, resource-wise, the competition, and the long-term consequences, those, those are the things that are shaping the world. Not of the future. They're shaping the world of us now. It's just we- we- we- we're not looking at it because it's all about Boris, and it's all about Jeremy Corbyn. Uh, it's all about trying to, to, to bloodlet here at home.
- CWChris Williamson
So you understand this much better than I do and much better than pretty much anybody that's listening is going to as well. Over the last few years, since you wrote your last book, have you got a five favorite, uh, incidents or particular situations or areas that you've looked at? Any that you think ... I know this might be like trying to ask you to choose your favorite children, but, um-
- PFPeter Frankopan
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
... if there's particular, particular incidents that you think that you found particularly interesting. It doesn't have to be Trump, doesn't have to be Brexit. You know, what, what are the, um, areas that you covered in this book that were surprising or, or of real interest to you?
- PFPeter Frankopan
I'll tell you what, Chris, you know, I'm extremely lucky that I get to travel around a lot, and the first thing you learn to do if you ... Well, th- the first thing you should learn to do when you travel a lot is to listen. And, you know, I, I don't mind being stuck in a lift with anybody, whether it's a local fireman, whether it's a big wig politician, whether it's a, you know, someone who's unemployed, whether it's with a student. I think it, it's listening to hear what it is that other people, what they think, you know, and to work out why they think it. That's, I think, what, what a good analyst does, a good scholar does, is that, is that you try not to prejudge. You try to leave your own biases to one side. But you try to look and listen. And, you know, this is a rolling story, very hard as a historian, you know. I suppose, you know, I, I feel like I'm a, a, um, a clay court, as ... a, a clay court tennis player. You know, on clay, I tell them like I'm a really good tennis player, which I'm not-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... but I understand, I understand when you play on clay court tennis, the ball bounces very slowly, so you, you, you know, these very long rallies. Right? Whereas on grass, at Wimbledon, it's all quick wham, bam, thank you ma'am. And I think historians are not always very good. I think I find it difficult to process in real time whether today's announcement, for example, about prorogation of Parliament, how significant is that in the gr- grand scheme of history? Because I'm trying to look backwards at stuff I know has happened, rather than reacting day-to-day. So I really admire, and I've lea- ... You know, I admire hugely journalists who are writing about their, their opinions in real time, because it's a, it's a really tricky skill to have, and it's not easy to get right. And it's very easy ... Worse than that, not only is it hard to, to, to get it right, it's worse because then in, in three or four years' time looking back on it, you could be told that you're wrong.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
So, you know, I've learned not to try to over-dramatize-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
... and sort of, uh, fetishize individual events. But I think that the, the, the, the traveling I've done over the last five or six years, uh, I spent a lot of time in, in ... all, all over the world, um, it, it's, it's to recognize that, uh, the biggest single shift has been the discrediting of what practical democracy looks like. And some of that is extremely unfair and unjustified o- and unfounded. But some of that is to do with, uh, the language that Trump uses. You know, when you talk about shit hole countries, when you talk about ... to when you trash talk other leaders, uh, you know, whether it's Trump on, on ... or talking about Justin Trudeau or anybody else, you know, where you turn on your ene- ... you turn on your friends as well as your enemies, uh, that sends a very powerful signal to people listening around the world that, you know, you're not decent cricket playing lot who abide by the rules. You make things up as you go along. You know, when you bomb countries without the UN Security Council approval, or when you pull out of agreements that the rest of the global community want. Um, that on- not only discredits the, the democratic traditions we have here. It, it, it provides, um, grist to the mill of people who want to do things in a different way, whose authoritarian ways, uh, look very different to us. So in fact, over the ... again, over the last few years, as well as seeing kind of our model, you know, it's very hard to be trying to say, "You should be more like us in Britain." You know, where half the, half the Parliament won't speak to the other half, or half the country won't talk to the other half. And worse, think the other half are idiots. Regardless of which side you think, it's very hard to be selling that model, and equally ... Uh, China's very good at this, uh, are, are very good at saying, "Well, we offer alternative." Right? Which is, "You can have economic growth, but, you know, there, we're gonna have to cut a few corners, and we're gonna have to make things difficult for you to be free in the way in which you want and accept." And, you know, the ... over the summer, the, the, the protests in Hong Kong have shown that ... how fragile that can be too. But, you know, I think that, that, that process of seeing how resilient authoritarian regimes is, is something that takes, uh, people like me very much by surprise. We always assumed that, um, as people became richer, uh, they'd want to have a greater participation in political process. And the evidence doesn't show that's the case. China's one obvious example, but the Middle East and lots of different countries shows that too, Russia likewise, where the reins of the operators are in, in the hands of the very, very few. And in some cases, you know, some of those, uh, authoritarian regimes have been quite, quite good, funnily enough, at reforming, getting rid of corruption, uh, having greater transparency in legal processes. And so I think we are drifting into this kind of bipolar world where th- there are two wheels spinning in different speeds, you know, and, and places like Africa that are very much on the move and transition, uh, are getting a huge amount of attention from Chinese businesses and from the Chinese state. Not exactly in the way which we think. Often people think the Chinese are just trying to extract resources, but actually China has, uh, has a much smarter way of engaging with Africa, uh, and of, of giving both aid and, and private investments into, uh, into businesses across that continent. But this world, which is changing, is gonna be deeply affected by climate in the future. Um, you know, I think that that is something which is very, very clear to me, that, that, uh, that at the same time a- as, as we're losing our way and, you know, fighting each other and trash talking and so on, other parts of the world are becoming more confident about saying, "We offer you something different, and not quite take it or leave it, but, you know, we at least can provide stability."... and, you know, I think that that's a real, real challenge going forward.
- CWChris Williamson
You're totally right as well what you say about the, uh, the growth that is being seen in the East. I remember, I think I'm right in quoting one of the stats from your book, is that Starbucks are opening 2,000 new stores in China in the next three years, which is the same as one every 15 hours. Like which is just-
- PFPeter Frankopan
Yeah. That's a lot.
- CWChris Williamson
... it's insane. So when you think that's, that's, you know, a US company, US company moving out there, that is what they see as the, um, uh, uh, hugely growing market. So what are some of the surprising, uh, statistics that you've discovered, uh, with regards to this growth over the last few years? Obviously, China is widely-
- PFPeter Frankopan
(coughs)
- CWChris Williamson
... widely touted as this huge booming economy at the moment. Are there any other places that might surprise people?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Yeah, I think, well, China is, is, is a lot of the story, you know. So, so not only do we have, um, uh, the growth of place like Starbucks, um, this summer, uh, a whole bunch of fashion houses have got into big trouble for, um, labeling Taiwan as being an independent country. And, uh, fashion houses like Versace and, uh, Givenchy and so on have had to do gr- groveling apologies to allow their, um, stores to stay open in China. There had been huge social media outrage, uh, a- across China, and every single company that's had that targeting, uh, ha- have made that so-called mistake in China's eyes, uh, has had to make a deci- decision, which is does it, does it want to engage in politics or does it want to make money?
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
And they've all, they've all apologized because they wanted to make money. Um, so, you know, and, and that, that's huge. So for ex- so example, in 1990, China's share of the luxury goods market was 0%. You know, the only people who traveled from China in, uh, 30 years ago or 40 years ago, uh, 30 years ago, sorry, uh, were state officials who, you know, uh, ideally didn't bring back, uh, too many, uh, fancy Italian designer goods with them. Uh, now already, China accounts for a third of all, um, global luxury goods, and the assumption according to, uh, to analysts and, uh, and research is that number's gonna rise to four, mill- nearly 50% in the next 15 years, right? So consumption... Which of course means that when Prada or Gucci or Burberry or whatever it is, uh, you know, uh, uh, added as a design, uh, kit, what colors they use, what logos they use, what words they choose, what... All of that is going to be shaped by the chief consumers. And, and that's the same for tourism, where the outbound numbers of Chinese tourists coming to visit Europe or the United States has gone through, gone through the roof. So, you know, uh, but it's not just a China story, in fact. So last year, Pakistan was the fastest retail growing market in the world, right? And, and we would never cross our mind that that might be the case. Pakistan, a population of almost 200 million people, um, lots of, lots of young, lots of under 30s, uh, very few of them have got a great deal of confidence in the state, rightly or wrongly, don't believe in the banking system where, you know, you leave your cash overnight, who knows what happens to it? So they spend, and they spend on having fun because why bother saving up in a state where you think that, you know, your future's uncertain? You know, why not live, live for now, right? So like, like, and anyone listening to this between the age, I don't know, 17 and 22, knows exactly what I'm talking about. When your parents said to you, "Why don't you save your cash rather than going out on Friday nights?" you'd think they're mad.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Or worse, you, you'd say, "I'll do my best," and maybe a couple of weeks you'll put a bit of cash away, but most of the time it's, "I want to live in the now, in the now." It's only later where you think, "I'm saving up because there's a sequence that doing that enables and opens other doors." So Pakistan is a big part of that. India is an enormous part of that. The penetration of, you know, like vacuum cleaners and fridges and freezers in India is, is very, very small. And as India becomes wealthier, uh, significantly so, you know, with their top cricketers there are now paid $30, 40 million a year, (coughs) you know, they're right up there with, with the world's, world's top earners. Then the, then the way in which people live and spend and so on shifts right across the board. So, um, one of my favorite stats, uh, that I put in my book is about airline pilot, um, salaries. So airline flights, I mean, you know, we, we all know in Europe it's cheap as chips to, to... If you book all the right flights at the right time and you're happy to get up at 5:00 in the morning and be treated like cattle-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... you know, it'll cost you 10 quid, 10, 10 quids and then, and then, and an extra 50 quid for your bags that you forgot to check in. Uh, but the real growth and boom in, in international air travel is in, is across Asia, and it's estimated that that number is going to spiral upwards and upwards and upwards, um, by, uh, by 2030, mainly driven by, uh, by China, by India, by Indonesia, population 200 million again almost, uh, by Turkey with a 100 million people in it. You know, these are huge populations all becoming not just richer, but more curious, you know, wanting to, to travel, wanting to taste different food, see how other people live, see the, the, the... you know, see their sights and so on. And those numbers are mind-boggling, you know. They're huge. So it's, it's a Pan-Asian thing, you know. The, the, the wealth in South Korea, in Malaysia, in Thailand, you know, and so on are, are, are enormous. And they, and they keep growing because these are... a lot of these states are well-run. They're, they are on balance pretty fair. You know, you can fall on the wrong side of people anywhere and you get into trouble. But, you know, they, they have pretty good legal systems, quite robust. You know, they all, they all are, are keen on, on being democratic. They all recognize the problems with autocracy. They've all got different experiences of things going off the rails from
- 30:00 – 45:00
Mm-hmm. …
- PFPeter Frankopan
time to time.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
But, you know, these are all countries that have had a, had a quasi-miraculous last 40, 50 years, you know, and it's not surprising in those countries to think, "Well, this is their time. This is their moment," and why would they jeopardize their relationships with their neighbors? So, you know, Malaysia, for example, they've got a 93-year-old prime minister, you know. There's a long complicated story behind how he's come back to power. But, you know, when you ask... when, when he gets asked about China or should China be allowed to invest into Malaysia and its infrastructure, he says, "Look, you know, I know lots of people around the world are worried about China and, you know, its investments and why it's doing it and so on, but remember, the Europeans came to what's now Malaysia, and two years later we'd become a colony and we became slaves. So, you know, the Chinese never did that, and maybe, maybe they're not gonna do that now."
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
"But, you know, rather than telling us to be more like you, maybe you should go and study your own history and realize why we're having second thoughts about..."... the nice men coming from London-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... telling us what to do. A- and maybe there are other alternatives. So in fact, this afternoon, there's been a big press conference where the Indian foreign minister had been talking. And he was asked by, by, um, General Petraeus, who commanded the American army in Iraq, he was asked, um, "Look, uh, uh, are you ... Whose side are you going to come down on? Are you going to come down on United States' side and freedom or on China's side of autocracy, communism," and so on. And the foreign minister of India said, not unreasonably, "I'll tell you exactly whose side we're going to come down on. We're going to come down on our own side." Right? "We, we don't have to choose in your belief, make-believe world where it's either or. We want to do what's right for us. We're not choosing sides because we don't see it as a choice that we need to be making." And those kind of- that kind of attitude, those kind of languages, that kind of- those kind of choices of words I think are very, um, interesting for countries that don't feel they need to hedge their bets. They're, they're, they're keen, in fact, the more money gets invested from Japan, China, United States, et cetera, the, the, the better. Why, why have to pick sides? But we have, I think, a Cold War mentality where people are either good or they're bad, you know.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Putin is either good, or Russia are either good or they're bad. Iran, good or bad, you know, kind of Egypt, good or bad, you know. So and, and I think that that, that normally tells you that there's a, a lack of thought going into things. You know, we professors, we could spend hours, like I'm doing now, talking about-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... going round and round in circles. But, you know, you, you learn that, um, that things are never quite so simple, that you need to look at it from every single angle. And, you know, if you don't get off your backside and go and do that and spend time in those countries or think about them, then there's a disconnect. And, and here one of our challenges is we've got a first-class foreign office, um, you know, diplomats around the world who are fantastic, uh, brilliant, you know. It's a man and a woman, hugely impressive, but they're under-resourced that they, they need more, more, more people working there. And they ideally, what they, what they are re- reporting back to London helps shape our policies. But in fact, it goes to politicians who are too busy worrying about Brexit and how they should line up behind Boris Johnson-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs) So you've touched-
- PFPeter Frankopan
... or Jeremy Corbyn for that matter.
- CWChris Williamson
Or to- yeah, whoever it might be. You've touched on one of the points that I wanted to delve into here. Uh, I'm a big fan of the Joe Rogan podcast, as are many of the people that will be listening, uh, and Joe has a, a series of guests on that are people who've worked in government, uh, ex-CIA staff, and people like that. And one of the constant, consistent narratives that's brought up is you don't need to be worried about Russia. You need to be worried about China. China's the real threat. China's the one that are using, um, aggressive investments. China's the one who have this weird social credit system, which I don't have a clue how it works. Uh, China is the one that's got the highest rates of pollution that are coming out at the moment. China's the one that's creating this Huawei, uh, surveillance, uh, potential plan, which is, um, fitting, uh, the ability for them to be able to potentially access networks of security and all this sort of stuff. Did you spend much time looking at these particular points?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Yeah, I did and I- the, the first question I'd ask, uh, next time you get one of ... when, when either you or Joe get one of these people on, is to say, "Look, I understand all that, but tell me why they're doing it."
- CWChris Williamson
Hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Right? All those, all those things you mentioned, I recognize.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
And, uh, they all have better or worse explanations for them. Uh, but, you know, what, what is the aim, right? And if you can't ... If you don't start with that as a question, what does China want, what's it trying to achieve, what's it- what's the purpose behind all of this stuff, if it really is trying to compromise all of our networks and so on and so forth, uh, exactly what's the purpose? If you, if you can't answer that, then you're not answering the right questions when you're badging, uh, China as a, as a single state or a single country, overlooking the structures that sit within the elite and underneath the elites and the different regions and the different identities and the different whatever, then I think it's very hard to understand and process all of that right. You know, and I think that with, with some of these things, I mean, I'll take ... I'll, I'll pick a couple of the ones, the list you gave me, you know. Uh, some of those things, like the social credit system, I, I think that, that with the right audience, and you've got to be very careful how you say these things because, you know, people could take them the wrong way, but all of us have been, um, on trains and on buses and stuff where there are people who are, who are, um, who behave in a bad way, right, whether it's by littering or whether it's by lousing or vandalism and so on. See how China does that, it's, it's very simple. If you spit on the train, if you dr- leave your coffee cup, or you, you, you litter here or there, or you're disrespectful, then, you know, you're going to lose points and therefore you're not able to go and have a solo ... You're not going to be able to have your first-choice holiday, right, or you won't be able to, uh, have, uh, cinema tickets on the night you want to go. And I'd have thought that, that to some extent, that would ... that, that sort of thing would get the right kind of support, uh, among politicians. In fact, I'm s- I'm amazed that we haven't had, uh, politicians, I'm not going to say which political party I reckon they probably come from, but suggesting that kind of thing, but how you train citizens to be better citizens, how you make people behave in their role towards the state well seems to be quite a natural thing to be doing. You know, I spent a bit of time in Sweden. In Sweden, if you don't sort your rubbish out into compostables, plastics, uh, metallics and so on, you know, you are, you become a pariah and you, you get into trouble with the local authorities.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
So China uses data and it uses AI and it uses the technology to do it faster and better, but they're not the only people who do things like this, right? So that's the first one. The second one about, about debt and investment and so on, what anybody will tell you is the, the, the best way to get good terms from your bank for your mortgage is to go and speak to two or three banks. And one of the, one of the open doors that China has is that, um, you know, the United States, uh, gives less ... In fact, the United States' contributions into Africa went down under the Obama administration, uh, from under Bush, and they've gone down under Trump even more. So in all these states, it's not that, that people are clamoring to get into bed with Chinese investment and so on, but in many cases, they're the only show in town, right? So if we want to be part of that story and we want to invest into it, there are all sorts of ways which we could do that. We can lo- do trade missions to other parts of the world, um, you know. But for example, there's the United States-... a business forum with Africa, uh, this, this y- coming up the second half of this year, and there's not a single American politician at the senior level who's e- even bothering to turn up. Whereas the Chinese-Africa forum is led by the Chinese president. Right? So it signals very clearly that if you want to have big-scale investments, the Chinese are open for business. What terms they lend it on, uh, how it's being done, et cetera, all come further down the line. But I think in some of these cases, if, um, w- if other countries like the United States or Britain wants to be a counterweight, then there are all sorts of ways in which we can put our money where our mouth is. And, and funnily enough, uh, Japan is very dr- uh, adept at doing that. In fact, Japan's overseas assets and investments are greater than China's, but it does it much more quietly, off the radar, in many cases, it's not really seen or talked about or known about. But there are many other people who have skin in the game who are interested in trying to play the same dual role of having a stake in what the new world is going to look like, or already looks like, but also getting a good return on your cash. Right? So, uh, where China has made mistakes, of course, has been putting money into projects that have gone bad. And there've been three or four very high-profile examples of all of that. But, you know, banking is not straightforward. You know, you make mistakes. I assume that, that, that we will expect that China will learn how to lend in a better way because when you, when you mess things up and you, you borrow billions to build a port or build railways that don't pay back, at some point, um, you know, the shit hits the fan.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Excuse, excuse my language.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Uh, at some point, the shit hits the fan. And, and, and the assumption that a lot of the policy wonks, uh, particularly in the United States is that China really wants to be taking over railways in East Africa or taking over power plants in Kyrgyzstan, um, because that's a strategic asset. And I don't see that in many of these cases they are strategic, strategic assets. I don't think they're easy to run. I don't think it's self-evident at all that China wants to control the power supply for Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan because what, what, what actual benefit does that give? What's different is if you can lend money and you get paid back at a decent rate and you make new friends at the same time. Right? So that, that seems like a very different kind of game. But we have a very shrill, uh, world when we look at China because of this black and white that we, we, you know, it's absolutely right to look at the problems and the difficulties, the challenges, the opacity, uh, the way in which the leadership, you know, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, the protests in Hong Kong, you know, to, you know, persecution of Muslims in Xinjiang, et cetera. But that doesn't mean that one discredits the whole thing all in one go. You know, I think one has to look very carefully, and like I said, the very first question is always, "Why, why exactly are they doing this?"
- CWChris Williamson
Why do you think that is? Is it, is it the, the, the, um, particular philosophy within China at the moment? Is this still Great Leap Forward super growth at, at, at any cost?
- PFPeter Frankopan
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Is this, is this sort of where we're at? Or, or what do you think the, the current Chinese...
- PFPeter Frankopan
I think it's all- I, I think it's all of that. I think some of it is to do with history and, and legacy, you know, the idea of China looking westwards is a long part, not just from back to Ming Dynasty, but even under communism, under Zhou Enlai and so on, the kind of, the idea that Chinese have better local regional partners seems self-evident. Uh, that's part of the kind of narrative. Part of it is to do with China's own long-term needs. Uh, parts of the world like Central Asia are very rich in minerals, particularly oil and gas, but also iron and steel and, oh, iron and zinc and, uh, gold and silver and so on and so forth. Um, some of it is to do with, with China n- working out what it needs in the future. Some of it's to do with China displacing the fact that it's grown a lot internally and is now shifting from a manufacturing base to services industry. So, all those workers who built roads and tower blocks and train stations, they could all be deployed elsewhere. And so, some of these contracts help, um, fund Chinese state-owned businesses and private businesses, so there are real opportunities. Some of it to do with the fact that markets like Pakistan and India, um, you know, with, with a combined population of more than one and a half billion people, uh, those are quite attractive markets for the future too. So, and, and then I think that there's the security angle as well about, uh, you know, China shares not a particularly big border with Afghanistan, but, you know, it shares a, it shares a, a, a paranoia about, uh, what fundamentalism will look like and, you know, is- has- i- is using a, you know, heavy hand to crack a, crack a nut by, by these internment camps in Xinjiang with, with a million, maybe more, uh, Uighurs who are being re- so-called re-educated. So, so there's a whole combination of slews in that, and then o- on top of that, you have personal ambitions, characteristics, you know, provincial governors, for example, in Xinjiang, extremely ambitious, uh, with an eye on a, on a promotion coming up the line if he can run his province well un- and like a pin. Uh, and so, you know, I think there, there's a whole multiplicity of all of this too. But what, what, what, what you always, what China watchers will always do is assume that there's a kind of master plan, and, um, that speaks of our own, uh, racial ideas about what we think Chinese people do. We think Chinese people are very good at maths-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- 45:00 – 1:00:00
You've spoken about the…
- PFPeter Frankopan
understand that, you know, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Middle East, Pakistan and India, China, Southeast Asia, Russia, Iran, you know, et cetera, um, we need to be thinking about that and we need to be thinking about it quickly. And that, that's very hard to do if you've g- if you start from a position of no knowledge.
- CWChris Williamson
You've spoken about the rapid growth that we've seen over this past five, six-year period or so. One of the things that I was keen to bring up are some of the costs that have come associated with that. Now again, perfect avatar for the layperson of understanding global politics right here. Like, if it doesn't appear on a, on a, a Facebook post that's been shared by one of my friends or on a really high-up BBC News article, probably haven't seen it. But the stuff that I see about dangerous rates of pollution, about levels of happiness in, in these sort of countries. And again, it is this incredibly imperialist view that it's like, well, if, if, if they're getting that right, it must be at the, everyone must be hating it or it must be another Great Leap Forward or it must be, they must be swimming in smog and stuff like that. But did you look into some of the costs that have been associated with this rapid growth over the last, uh, the last few years?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Yeah, I think, yeah, I th- I think, yeah, yes. And I think that it's, you know, the answer to that one, it really is how long is a piece of string? Because when you look at costs, um, you know, you've got social costs, you know, rising wealth means im- explicitly, I suppose, rising inequalities, you know. As rich get richer then, and the poor don't move, then, that's a difficult thing for any society to, to l- to work through, particularly when it's extremely rapid. Uh, you know, so there, there are costs there. That, that has a implication through to provision of healthcare, through to education where things become uneven because people in wealthier parts of different countries have, have, have different standards that they get for themselves .
- CWChris Williamson
Probably some crime as well, right? Probably, probably some crime perio- uh, places where you get high inequality of, of wealth is, uh, are also places where you associate high levels of crime.
- PFPeter Frankopan
I, that's something that I'm sure that, that probab- that sounds to me like it, like that, that's probably correct. Uh, I'd have thought that that may, that, I don't know about the data behind all of that because, well, I guess, 'cause quite often, things that I think sound about right and sound reasonable turn out to be not, not, not correct.
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
Uh, but, you know, the environmental cost is obviously enormous. The, the, the carbon emissions in China, as you've already said, are, are amongst the high- uh, are the highest in the world. Uh, what most developing countries will say, from Brazil, who are hugely in the news at the moment, through to countries across Africa and in Asia, it's to say that it's all very rich for Europe to tell us about this when they burnt all the coal that, that, uh, you know, that went up into the sky from the 1800s onwards. Uh, that you all had your own great leap forward to industrialize and build your cities, build your railroads, and now you want to stop us from doing it. So, ironically, China and Russia and Turkey are within their limits that were set by the Paris Accords, whereas the, the Paris Climate Agreements that Donald Trump has pulled out of. Here in Britain where we think, you know, we're quite sensitive, we all like that Swedish w- girl who's like, talks about climate. We all know it's got a problem coming towards us. It wasn't a great summer this summer and so on. Um, but, uh, as it happens, we're, we're, we're exceeding our own limits that we set for our, that we agreed to accept, right? We assume other people break the rules, but those agreements that were made in Paris, uh, other countries across Asia, including China, are still, as far as I'm aware, as fa- and I think I'm correct in saying that, please don't, don't hurt me if I'm wrong, I'm, I'm sure that, that Turkey, Russia, certainly, and I'm sure China also-
- CWChris Williamson
Caveat deployed, it's fine. (laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... that, yeah. I think they, they are within the limits that were set, and in Europe, most of the countries aren't. So, I think we have that idea that, that other people bend the rules and we don't, you know, 'cause we, we bent the rules of cricket and won the World Cup. So, you know, I think that tho- those things are, are hard. I think there's costs in terms of urbanization, the process of people moving to cities in India and, and China but also all across Asia, but it's huge strain on ecosystems, on family life, on gender because it tends to be, well, they, both women who move to the jo- move to the city for particular kinds of jobs-... and then for other kinds of particular jobs, um, you know, that, that creates a change in family dynamics. So, so it's, it's absolutely monumental, the scale of these changes and the costs. And I suppose one of the things one has to outweigh is, is what's the destination? And again, um, most states that I've visited and most people I talk to, uh, across Asia, uh, all say that they are making these sacrifices for the good of their children. You know, I've been to places where... You know, I was, I was in, I was in... for example, I went to Abu Dhabi with the Pope, um, earlier this year, the first time a Pope has ever been to, um, to the Gulf region. And I met a woman who, um, was working in the Philippines. She'd been in Sau- she'd been in- living in Saudi Arabia, she'd come to the UAE for, to see the Pope, uh, was Catholic from the Philippines. She'd been living in Saudi Arabia for 12 years and had been home twice, and she had three kids at home. She'd seen twice for a total of 10 days in 12 years. And she said, "Look, I'm doing that because what I earn here, um, l- you know, lowest of the low but more than, uh, me getting back at home helps give my kids a better chance." And when you have that kind of, uh, idea that your children are going to have a better life than you are, then you make different decisions about education, about healthcare, about investment to, if you're sure that they won't. And, uh, here in, in the UK, uh, according to the Financial Times, um, we are in the fir- this is the first generation now of under 25s who are gonna have a worse standard of living than the generation that went before them.
- CWChris Williamson
Wow.
- PFPeter Frankopan
And they're, that, that is why you start-
- CWChris Williamson
(clears throat)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... to see disenfranchised, disaffected, uh, particularly youth, and it's the same story in United States, by the way, where social mobility, you know, if you're born in the bottom 20% in the UK or the US, you've got a statistically miles high- much, much higher chance of staying there than if you're born in the bottom 20% in Sierra Leone or Gabon or Kazakhstan. And when that social mobility crunch comes, you think, "Well, what if my life means that there's no option, there's no future, there's no ownership?" All that stuff I see on Love Island, I just see it's a kind of fantasy. Then, then, then you get radicalized and religious radicalization is part of that, environmental radic- radicalization can be part of that. All sorts of different ways in which, you know, body radicalization, all those kinds of ways in which, which, um, unhappiness, um, can come through the system. You know, it, it, it, it changes how states function. So, uh, I'm not gonna tell you that, that, um, you know, that, that we in Britain have a bad future coming towards us, but these are questions that our politicians need to be thinking about, need to be listening to researchers and trying to work out how do we try to correct that. How do we make this country a fairer place? How do we make it environmentally safer? How do we look after our natural habitats? How do we become more tolerant? How do we encourage people who are, who look different, behave differently, want to worship in a different way? H- how do we get all sides to sit around a table and, and work out how to pull together? And, um, you know, there is a price that you pay if you start to get that wrong. And I'm, I'm concerned about how things look in Europe right now because, you know, you, you can see it in, in Greece during the financial crisis, it was 60% of the, of the under 25s didn't have a job.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
You know, and those numbers in Portugal, Spain, Italy at the height of the crisis were, were 50, 60% plus. And that's one reason why, again, regardless of what, what listeners', um, views are about the EU, um, you know, 58% of the French population think the EU is not gonna last or un- unsatisfied with it. You know, we're not the only people in Britain who think that the European Union is a problem. M- my own personal view, for what it's worth, is that there's a lot of projection. We want a lightning rod, so we want something to blame. So we blame, blame the EU, and the EU probably hasn't done a good enough job in explaining why it's been good for everybody, but clearly that dissatisfaction, that anger in our politics, that name-calling, that bitterness, that inefficiency is a product of the fact that we all recognize that life is becoming harder for us and it's gonna become even harder for our kids. I think, and I put it in my book, um, that, that regardless of what you think about Brexit, this is the worst possible moment with China on the rise, Russia isolated, Iran r- you know, uh, on a different trajectory, uh, potential war between India and Pakistan, all these flashpoints, and Trump in the White House. To choose now to leave a structure seems to me very, very, uh, very irresponsible. But, you know, I, I also listen on all sides to try to work out why, why people are angry. And I, I think that that anger is based on substance, but I'm not sure that we're necessarily going to, the solution is gonna make things better. M- my guess is it'll make things worse.
- CWChris Williamson
(inhales) It's a very complicated situation. I was talking to, uh-
- PFPeter Frankopan
(clears throat)
- CWChris Williamson
... Andrew Doyle, creator of the Titania McGrath, uh, Twitter account the other day about this, and I was saying that as someone who is not politically minded, but everything that I do is apolitical, right? Everything. Because never voted, I haven't voted, and the main reason for that is I haven't educated myself sufficiently for me to feel like my vote is worthwhile. I don't wanna vote just off the top of headlines that potentially may be wrong. Um, but increasingly and much more so during the period that you've been writing this book, last five years or so, I've been finding myself being dragged into political discussions, that things that I do that don't have anything to do with politics are somehow becoming politicized. I, I, I, I'm not, I'm not... The way that I conduct my business, literally my own business that I've run for 13 years, is, it's not to do with my political stance. And my political stance also isn't something for public consumption, it's just how I am.
- PFPeter Frankopan
(coughs)
- CWChris Williamson
But yeah, I think that lightning rod, someone to blame that isn't us, everyone likes to gas, a, a little bit of gaslighting here and there and it, it's a little bit like European Union gaslighting. So before we finished up, uh, what I wanted to briefly touch on, because it's, it's quite topical at the moment, is this situation in Brazil. I just wanted to get your, your take on how that's been received globally. Obviously you've got a much wider perspective than, than most people will do. So what, what's your thought?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Oh. Well, I don't know, I don't know quite where to start. I mean, clearly the preservation of the Amazon is, is crucial for all of us. You know, I think that Bolsonaro is a, is a populist leader, uh, uh, which, you know, a- as many countries have where-... uh, they say and do irresponsible things. And then, you know, a- a- and while it's all happening, cracks, wise cracks about, about the French president's wife, you know, on Facebook. Uh, so he doesn't seem to be taking it that seriously. Uh, you know, I think that the, the way in which, uh, the global community tries to respond and tell people off probably isn't enormously helpful. You know, we've announced a, a package of $20 million, which, you know, doesn't pay for a, uh, an enormous amount. I think we've got to try and think very carefully. I mean, I'm, I'm a, I'm, I'm a, a supporter of a, of an organization called Survival International, um, which looks after indigenous people's rights. So it's not just about the lungs of the earth, as they're called, and about the, the greenhouse, uh, impact. It's about the people who live in these lands, uh, and who are just being booted off, uh, for search of cash. But, you know, I think we are arch hypocrites here in the West that, you know, if you want to stop, um, a- am- Amazon, uh, the Amazon being deforested then, then we should stop, stop eat- we should eat less meat. You know, we should stop buying things that are directly implicated into it. And, you know, if you watch, if you watch Narcos, if you, you, you know, you, you start to think about global supply chains, there's no such thing, uh, with all due respect, Chris, I think of, of being apolitical.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Because everything, everything's political. You might, you might not want to admit it, you might not want to think about it when you buy your TV, where was it made or whether your jeans-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
... are fair trade or whether they're made by something that costs five quid. And you, you'd think, "I'm not going to ask about how they were made or where." But, you know, you're going to guess that they're made in a different way to being made for 50 quid up the road. Although that doesn't always mean... that doesn't always work out either.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Sometimes you get scalped for your conscience. But, you know, I think we all have a responsibility. And, and in our, in our digital world where information is not always reliable, a lot of fake news, uh, but, you know, it's not hard to, um, to find things out. It's about asking those kind of right questions. You know, I think we're all complicit in that, um, destruction of the Amazon because we want to have our, our, our, our niceties in life. And, and that starts with beef, but that's not the only thing too. It's, it's about the global capitalist order, which is much better than the alternative, by the way, as a student of Soviet Union, you know, where-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- PFPeter Frankopan
... persecution, mass murder and, and so- and, and oppression are the kind of calling cards. You know, I think that we need to think very hard about what kind of world it is we want. And again, it's a, it's a, it's a kind of good line to end on, I suppose. My, my view is that the kind of challenge we have in the world at the moment about digital, about technologies, about, um, about climate can only be resolved by mult- multilateral and by organizations where people all have a chair at the table. And when you, when you leave the room and say you're going to work things out on your own, you know, I'm not sure how effective you can be. We're obviously much more useful, uh, the UK within the EU, within the G7, within the UN, within all these different formats of being able to have a kind of common policy. And at the moment, we're the ones who are being forced to take sides because when we, when we detach from, uh, from the EU, which looks to me like it's inevitable, um, you know, we've got... we, we don't have an enormous amount we can bring to the party in terms of leverage, uh, apart from our reputation. And historians will tell you that reputation, uh, it counts for something, but actually it's always to do with cash. And if you want to effect change, then you change the way that you live and how you spend.
- CWChris Williamson
It's going to be interesting in another five years' time. There might be the... I'm not sure what it would be. The Silk Ro- the Silk Roads might be fine and you might be talking about a, a, a total collapse of the European Union or God knows what's going to go on over the next five years. Here's one, one question to actually finish on. Do you think... if you were, if you were a betting man, do you think that you will have seen more change in the last five years or more change in the next five years?
- 1:00:00 – 1:01:10
Uh, uh, Twitter is…
- CWChris Williamson
been absolutely fantastic. I really appreciate your time. Um, The New Silk Roads will be linked in the show notes below. Highly recommend that you go and check it out. If, uh, anybody wants to find you online, where should they head, Peter?
- PFPeter Frankopan
Uh, uh, Twitter is always the place, @peterfrancobene, and, um, I try to reply if I can. No one's ever... no one's been rude. Please don't be rude. I've got... I'm, I'm a me- me- meek academic sitting in a library, so I don't want to start crying in, in a library, uh, in front of my students. But, um, no, I l- I love engaging with people and, and very happy to try to respond and answer and so on, if anybody wants to tweet at me.
- CWChris Williamson
Fantastic. If you have any questions that are nice and well-worded and polite and, and don't use too many emojis, then fire them over to Peter.
- PFPeter Frankopan
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
His Twitter, his Twitter will be linked in the show notes below as well. Uh, Peter, thank you so much for your time. Enjoy your, your cooking.
- PFPeter Frankopan
Absolutely a pleasure.
- CWChris Williamson
You're off to cook a souffle, and, uh, I hope that you get it right.
- PFPeter Frankopan
(laughs) Fantastic. Thanks a lot, Chris.
Episode duration: 1:01:08
Install uListen for AI-powered chat & search across the full episode — Get Full Transcript
Transcript of episode GqjUJaRstjk
Get more out of YouTube videos.
High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.
Add to Chrome