Modern WisdomWhy Does The 2024 Election Feel So Fake? - Krystal Ball
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,343 words- 0:00 – 7:29
Do Stories Matter in Politics?
- CWChris Williamson
Do you think that stories have any real impact on voter opinion anymore? Or are we just memeing our way through a pantomime campaign now?
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs) I mean, of course, of course they do. Um, but I think we have a sort of meta-story that has set in, where the central divide in politics in this meta-story is how you feel about the person of Donald Trump. It's part of what I think is one of the worst things about the Trump era, frankly, is that all of the, you know, interesting policy and important policy discussions sort of gets subsumed into how do you feel about this one individual. And if you don't like him, which I don't like him, then you end up on the side of, like, Liz Cheney, who I find (laughs) basically abhorrent in all ways in terms of her political views, and if you do like him, then, you know, you end up on the other side of that equation. And, um, that has made it so that it's very difficult to do anything but discuss this person, and every campaign is run on, you know, what he's gonna do and who he is and how you feel about him. And I think it's been very difficult for any other story outside of that to break through. And certainly we've seen, I mean, Jesus, how much has happened in just a short period of time, where you have Biden drop out of the race. Now, that did move the needle, right? The polls for Kamala are certainly significantly better than they were for Joe Biden. The fact that he was, like, manifestly declining before our eyes and there was no way this man was gonna be able to survive four more years, that did have an impact. Um, but after that, you know, we've had a debate, we've had multiple assassination attempts on Trump, we had a vice presidential debate, we've had all kinds of wide, wild comments out on the campaign trail, and basically, the polls don't really move. They may inch in one direction or the other direction by one point. That's still within the margin of error of these polls anyway, so you don't even really know if that's actual movement. Um, and I think until we break out of this sort of meta-story that we're all recycling over and over again, then yeah, I think these other stories are gonna be less impactful.
- CWChris Williamson
That was the point that I was getting at. This, like, uh, structurally, swapping out Joe Biden for Kamala Harris was something, something actually happened. I'm aware that something actually happened when he gets shot in the ear as well, but it doesn't, it, nothing happened with regards to politics. It's just more stories. And that's why it just increasingly feels like a pantomime. I was thinking about this the other day. Uh, you may actually even know these numbers. But if you think about, about, around about 50% of Americans are registered to vote, I think.
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm. Sounds about right.
- CWChris Williamson
Is that right? Or around about 50% do, do vote-ish.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Um, and then, okay, so chop it in half, and then from that 150, how many of those are actually going to go and vote? From whatever's left, how many of those are undecided? And from those, how many of those live in the counties in the states that actually matter to do this thing?
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
When you break it down, I, I need Nate Silver to do this for me.
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
When you do that, you, there is, it would surprise me if that number's bigger than five million. Like, that would be, like, a massive amount of people. When you think, and it's, it's only maybe three or four states or whatever that really matter, and then within that, there's the counties and all the rest of it. So you're talking about this entire thing, all of this, the dominating the news, all of the, the podcast, this conversation we're having right now, being maybe, maybe on the low end, it could be for, like, one and a half million people, or maybe less. Maybe it could be hundreds of thousands of people, less than a million people are-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, I think it is less than a million people.
- CWChris Williamson
... who this... That's fucking insane.
- KBKrystal Ball
Because if you think about it, (laughs) well, and that is the idiocy of the American political system. Because why should it be that a voter in Bucks County, Pennsylvania matters more than a voter in New York City? Right? That's stupid. That is nonsensical. And yet, it's just what we're, you know, it's what we're used to with the electoral college system. But that's effectively what we're looking at. You're looking at a few hundred thousand, maybe, voters in a couple key states who are largely not particularly politically tuned in in what their whims are gonna be over the next couple of weeks. And we're talking about billions of dollars being spent on this.
- CWChris Williamson
I would love to know, someone, uh, there's someone really smart and good at stats that's listening. Um, what that breaks down to from a campaign expenditure perspective, from both parties-
- KBKrystal Ball
Per voter.
- CWChris Williamson
... 'cause both, both parties are trying to get them, right?
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
So you need to look at what they're both spending. And yeah, it's like, I don't know, you could probably retire every voter plus their entire family plus their next three generations of them at, like, an upper class level wage or whatever for this amount of money.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, no, that's exactly right. And I also just think that there's something, you know, rotten at the core of a democracy where voters in one state matter and voters in another don't. And, you know, uh, for the past several cycles, Republicans have an, h- have had an edge in the electoral college, um, meaning that Democrats have to win the popular vote by a few points in order to also win the electoral college vote. Hillary Clinton famously wins the popular vote, loses the electoral college, does not become president of the United States. Well, there's a lot of evidence that suggests that, um, Trump is making up a lot of ground in a state like Florida that, at this point, is no longer a swing state, so you know, those voters that are added to his column don't really matter. He's also closing the gap with Democrats in the state of New York. Again, those voters don't really matter. And so that popular vote, electoral college vote dif- differential between Democrats and Republicans may actually be closing. But it just seems crazy to me when you think about, like, well, why doesn't it matter that a Florida, uh, voter is switching, uh, who they're gonna vote for? Why is this not consequential in terms of our, our overall politics? And you know, overwhelmingly, Americans feel the same way. They're like, "This electoral college thing is really stupid. Why don't we just do a popular vote?" Because then you would have to actually appeal to voters across the entire country. But you know, it also points to something else, Chris, which is that... (laughs) I have a lot more, I think, humility this year coming into whatever the hell is gonna happen on election day because first of all, I've been, uh, burned several times at this point by thinking that the polls understate this candidate or overstate this candidate, or everybody says in 2022 it's gonna be a red wave and the polls show it and people are hate the economy and then, like, that doesn't materialize. And of course Trump wildly over, under- estimated in 2020, 2016. I know I am not reflective of that voter that isn't that politically engaged who is going to decide the election in basically two weeks time. Like, I know that, and so I just have to be comfortable with the fact that I really have no idea what's gonna happen.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- KBKrystal Ball
I can look at these polls, they tell me it's really close, that's the best data that I have, and other than that, I can just tell you what I think about the issues and that's that. Because anyone who's out there saying like, "Oh, I'm certain Kamala's gonna win, I'm certain Trump's gonna win," whatever, no you're not. There's no way you can know that because the polls have been off in all kinds of directions. It would only take a tiny miss in either direction for it to be a landslide for Kamala or a landslide for Trump. That's where we are.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. The, not only have the polls been off but this time almost all of them are saying that it's 50/50. Nate was on the show too, I'm aware everything moves and blah blah-
- KBKrystal Ball
Sure.
- CWChris Williamson
Nate was on the show like two, two and a half weeks ago.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
He was like, it's, it's an actual coin toss, which he said for him is the most acceptable outcome going into it, um, because it means that he's got equal chances. He's like, "It was 50/50. I said it was 50/50."
- KBKrystal Ball
Right, so whoever wins no one can be like, "You told us that Kamala was gonna win."
- CWChris Williamson
All, exactly, all of the pollsters have got a get out of jail free card.
- KBKrystal Ball
Sure.
- 7:29 – 14:28
Is Roe v Wade a Central Issue in This Election?
- CWChris Williamson
on, how different do you think the political landscape would be if Roe versus Wade hadn't been repealed?
- KBKrystal Ball
You know, I have to say that, um, yeah, I'm, I'm personally pro-choice. It's an important issue for me. I think, you know, for, for me and many other millions of Americans, women especially but men too, I think they were pretty stunned by the idea that this right that they and their moms and grandmas had taken for granted had been rolled back. But I really under- underestimated how much it would matter in the American political context. And, um, we have my entire life as a country been split 50/50 on the question of abortion, like almost exactly. And whichever party at that time feels like they're taking the more extreme position, they were the ones that would, you know, be on the losing side of the abortion issue. It's not a 50/50 issue anymore. There's a very clear pro-choice majority in the country. You can tell Republicans very wary of this, you know, Donald Trump changing his position and just making a mess of what his stance is on the issue. And, um, I certainly think it was determinative in 2022 in terms of there not being that red wave election, you know, Democrats, um, win the Senate, they come very close actually to winning the House. Um, and it remains to be seen whether it still has that level of force in 2024, but I also think it wasn't just abortion alone. It was also tied in with this sense from voters that, like, this party's got some pretty wild ideas. Like, a lot of the candidates that were nominated by the Republican Party last time around, and this time around by the way, you know, they denied the last election results, of course Donald Trump and J.D. Vance continue to deny the last election results, and there was just this sense between that and the fringe views on abortion that this is a party that, mm, they're a little bit wild. They're a little bit out there. And I think that was a big part of it too. Of course this time around you see, like, the Mark Robinson, you know, situation down in North Carolina. I don't know, have you followed that at all?
- CWChris Williamson
No, what's that?
- KBKrystal Ball
Okay, so (laughs) only in America. Um, so this is the Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina, he's running now to be the Governor of North Carolina, he's the Repub- Republican nominee. When he was nominated, already there were a lot of really, well just say controversial statements of his on the record, including things that I think can accurately be characterized as Holocaust denial, et cetera. Well now it's come out that in a, uh, porn chatroom that he was a regular-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- KBKrystal Ball
... visitor of-
- CWChris Williamson
Ah.
- KBKrystal Ball
... he described himself as a black Nazi, said that he would actually like to own slaves himself if it was possible, um, and said, you know, used like absolute slurs against Martin Luther King Jr. And so that's an extreme example but, um, that is the type of character who, you know, when it starts to take hold that that's like the image of the party, that's a big problem for them. And abortion, like I said, ties into that sort of like sense of extremism that I think is a problem for Republicans especially, um, especially down-ballot. Trump can get away with things that I think other Republicans can't-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm.
- KBKrystal Ball
... and that's part of why, you know, he's outperforming every single other Republican Senate candidate in the country save for, uh, Larry Hogan who's running in, in the state of Maryland. He can get away with a lot of things that others can't but I think maybe even Trump if he out and out came, you know, if he came out and m- and actually said, "I'm a Nazi-"
- CWChris Williamson
In a porn chatroom.
- KBKrystal Ball
"... that might be a little bit of a political problem for him too."
- CWChris Williamson
Well look, you don't know, you don't know who the other respondents in a porn chatroom are. That might be right on the, right in the middle of the zeitgeist of whatever they're talking about. Um... (clears throat)
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, there's definitely, well I mean this was what we saw when, uh, the hot swap summer happened was everything was vibes, we don't really care about your sort of political proposals-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... we don't need to see a budget. It's just, you know, brat summer and everyone's cool and it's chill and look at the merch isn't it great.
- KBKrystal Ball
Joy.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, exactly.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
And I think, um, definitely the Republicans at the moment are the less fun party and, like, they just don't seem to be as, they're not as vibey, and if you do get pulled up on vibes like that-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... which is a s- it's a sentiment, it's a sense, it's kind of a tone and tenor of what most people are saying that isn't to do with the hard issues, it's to, it's just the way that they present themselves. And if you've got like Marjorie Taylor Greene on one side and you've got this guy in a porn chatroom talking about this other stuff, like it's just a sense. I, it's a sense of how things are-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... and rather than it, people being able to point-... to any one particular thing that occurred. It gives them this, it's what brand is, right? It's all of the intangibles about how do you think about this party at large. Like, what's the blood that runs through its veins? As opposed to the sort of skeletal structure that, that suspends it.
- KBKrystal Ball
So, I think I would've agreed with your assessment that the Democrats were feeling more like the fun party. Um, certainly, you know, early after Kamala gets in and there's all this enthusia- you know, Democrats were like on a death march to November when it was Joe Biden, 'cause they weren't stupid. They were looking like, "Oh, this is gonna be bad." And it was gonna be bad if that man even made it to Election Day. I mean, he... Anyway, we'll just, we'll just put that to the side. But, you know, there's all this enthusiasm. They're excited, they're out on the trail, like, they're, you know, making jokes about JD Vance and a couch, and, uh, like, memeing on TikTok and all this stuff. And, and coupling with that, she put out some really substantive policy proposals that are extremely popular. Um, you know, taking steps, especially with regard to prices, which Americans say, and understandably so, is their, their number one issue. Like, we, we can't afford groceries, we can't afford housing, we can't afford all kinds of things. And she came up with a very concrete plan on housing that was solid, on price gouging that was, uh, solid. And you know what? I was like, "Okay, this, this is good." Because you need to show people that you're not just not Joe Biden, but you, you know, you have a plan, you got a vision for the country and you're gonna enact it, et cetera. And you add that on top of the, like, good vibes, and that can really be something. Post, uh, DNC in particular, and in the past couple of weeks, they've just really leaned into this, like, "Actually, we're, you know, we aren't gonna really talk about policy. We're just gonna talk about how Liz Cheney endorsed us and Dick Cheney endorsed us, and we're gonna have bipartisan commissions." And, um, at the same time, you've got the Trump campaign. Trump is going on all kinds of, um, you know, podcasts. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if he offered himself up to, you know, your podcast viewership. Um, and kinda hanging out and vibing with a bunch of podcast bros, and I'm not sure that they've been able to hold onto that sense that they're the ones with, like, the vibe and the momentum and, and the quote unquote fun.
- CWChris Williamson
What was your postmortem on Call Her Daddy?
- KBKrystal Ball
Hmm. I mean... Okay, so
- 14:28 – 24:54
Kamala’s ‘Call Her Daddy’ Appearance
- KBKrystal Ball
I wanna be fair. I don't know Alex Cooper. I've never watched the show, okay? I wanna be fair to her, I wanna be fair to Andrew Schultz, I wanna be fair to all the podcasters who are saying yes to these interviews, because on the one hand, you're not a journalist, right? You're not a scholar on the Middle East, you're not a whatever, right? However, I do think that given the fact that these candidates are increasingly turning to podcasters to get their message out, I think if you're gonna accept that interview, you are accepting a level of responsibility to be more than an infomercial. And, you know, whether it's the Nelk Boys or Andrew Schultz or, um, Call Her Da- Alex Cooper, or whoever, mostly what I've seen is just, like, propaganda infomercials. And, um, you know, maybe it's not fair to those podcasters that that onus has been put on them. But because you have candidates who no longer feel like they have to submit themselves to adversarial interviews from journalists, you know, that does kind of put the onus on you that, like, "Okay, well, this is all we're gonna get from these candidates. They're not doing another debate." You know, they're not sitting for that many traditional media interviews. And by the way, you know, yeah, you're a comedian, yeah, you're a cultural figure, yeah, you're whoever. It's not that hard to come up with a few tough questions or a few important questions that, you know, reflect things that are on regular people's minds. In fact, if you're someone with, you know, with that, the talent to build that large audience, um, you likely have your finger on more of the pulse than some of the mainstream interviews do.
- CWChris Williamson
Th- there's a very particular, there's a very particular skill set for grabbing and holding a politician's feet to the fire.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, sure.
- CWChris Williamson
Even if you come in with the best of intentions and all of the prep in the world-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... you know, you're looking at one of the two most powerful people in the world in a month's time and going, "No, no, no, no, but Madam President, what do you really mean when you talk about price gouging? Don't you know that there's been an awful lot of criticism for how this is going to raise real..." Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And you're like-
- KBKrystal Ball
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, and like, if we're laying that at the feet of Alex Cooper, so that I, I, I-
- KBKrystal Ball
It's, it's tough. It's tough.
- CWChris Williamson
... I'm fascinated, I'm fascinated by this. You know, Douglas Murray had that famous double debate, uh, last year about mainstream media versus independent media, and I- i- is one thing better than the other? And it was him versus Malcolm Gladwell and a couple of other people, I think.
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
And, um, yet when I think about that, e- there is, this is the podcast election. You know, it's b- so much has been laid at the feet, but... And this is the, it kind of relates back to what I was talking about earlier on. I really don't know how much Theo Von is changing the minds of the registered undecided Pennsylvania-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah. Right.
- CWChris Williamson
... electorate. Do you know what I mean? Like when you-
- KBKrystal Ball
I do.
- CWChris Williamson
... break it down through all of those-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... different bits and pieces.
- KBKrystal Ball
No, that's fair. And I think that's a very fair rebuttal to saying, like, they have this responsibility as basically, like, these people are spending a billion dollars on advertising, and you really think, like, the podcast appearance with Theo Von is gonna be the game changer? So I guess the, the sort of, like, you know, the rebuttal and the somewhat nihilistic and probably pretty accurate view is like, "Well, none of this really matters anyway."
- CWChris Williamson
Doesn't matter at all.
- KBKrystal Ball
"So, you know, go in and have fun and-"
- CWChris Williamson
That's, that's what we n- nihilism, Krystal.
- KBKrystal Ball
"... get your views and do your, do your thing."
- CWChris Williamson
That's what we, that's what we're here for.
- KBKrystal Ball
I, I have to be honest with you, Chris. And I'm curious your, your thoughts on this 'cause I, I don't know what your thoughts are on this. But I'm someone who, like, this is my space, independent media, um, you know, it's Saagar and I do, um, and also my show with my husband Kyle. And, you know, we've been very careful about how we cultivate our business model, especially because we are analysts and journalists. And, you know, we, we want people not just to not have a conflict of interest, but we want people to understand and perceive that there is no conflict of interest there. So we've been very careful about the decisions we've made with regard to our business. We don't take any... We don't talk to any advertisers whatsoever. You know, we don't read any ads, all that stuff.But I have to tell you, I'm pretty black-pilled on a lot of independent media, and, you know, I- I think I've been the first to call out many failings of the mainstream press where they've gotten things wrong, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, y- it just feels like there's- there's no check on independent media whatsoever, and the thing that clicks the most is the most, like, outrageous or conspiratorial.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- KBKrystal Ball
And that can lead you... That creates a very ugly, uh, set of incentives for a lot of creators.
- CWChris Williamson
What's- what's some of the scenarios or situations that you've encountered that have black-pilled you the most? Again, this will be a cumulative thing over time. It's just this sort of milieu that you're swimming in. But are there any things that come to mind where you go, "Ugh, perverse incentive"? .......................... Really ............................
- KBKrystal Ball
Well, I'll tell you one thing specifically, is I was a critic of the liberal derangement around Russiagate, right? The stated, like, the- the pee tape and whatever, that was alleged to be coming out every- any moment about Donald Trump. Like, that was not true, right? So, I was a critic of that. However, (laughs) the DOJ did just in- indict this, uh, you know, a couple o- or, uh, Russian, uh, person who worked for RT, who was actively paying these conservative influencers.
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, this is the Tenet- Tenets Media-
- 24:54 – 28:21
Vance’s Views on the 2020 Election
- CWChris Williamson
You mentioned J.D. Vance earlier on.
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, one of the things that I kind of s- slipped under the radar, at least a little bit on Twitter as far as I could see-
- KBKrystal Ball
Okay.
- CWChris Williamson
... was, was it The New York Times lady that he did the interview with recently?
- KBKrystal Ball
Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah.
- KBKrystal Ball
Lulu something.
- CWChris Williamson
And she, like, held his feet to the fire and didn't... So that's an example of what you were talking about earlier on of s- a woman who was prepared to sit for three minutes in-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
... just wallowing in discomfort as she says, "Senator Vance, I have asked you, give me a yes or no answer." She's basically saying, "Would you have certified the 2020 election?" And she just, she doesn't move. She's just like an im-
- KBKrystal Ball
She asks him five times.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. And there's, it's the h- the really great answers from him, like, sort of obfuscatory and evasive-
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
... and all of this, like, all of the tricks. And she's just like, "Nope. Nope. Nope." Like the most mean-
- KBKrystal Ball
Right. Yes or no.
- CWChris Williamson
... sullen mother ever. Um, but even that, like, the Vance saying that he wouldn't have certified the election in 2020, do you think that has made any impact? Does anyone even really care about that anymore?
- KBKrystal Ball
So, there's- there's two levels, okay? So, does it matter that we have that piece of information about him? And frankly, I- I think that's the single most important piece of information as to why Donald Trump put J.D. Vance on the ticket. Because he wants to make sure that if it comes down to, not that scenario maybe exactly, but something similarly, you know, frank- outrageous and unconstitutional, will this guy be loyal up to even to that point where Mike Pence said, "That's it. I- I'm out." Right? And Mike Pence now, you know, the right all hates him. This was the most loyal ser- soldier for Donald Trump right up until that moment. So, I think it's important to- to have that on the record and for people to understand where J.D. Vance stands on that issue. Do I think it's electorally consequential? Probably not. Um, maybe a little on the margins because again, look, I- I- I wanna be humble about my own predictions because I was wrong in 2022. I thought red wave. I thought, uh, Democrats are just running on, like, democracy and people wanna know about their pocketbooks and whatever, they're not offering any kind of an economic program, but hey, it worked for them. It was enough. And it's very possible it's enough again. I do know people hate that Donald Trump won't admit he lost. They hate that he lies about the election. They hate the c- you know, the candidates who were election deniers in 2022 performed extremely poorly, and they will perform poorly again. I mean, Kari Lake is running for Senate in Arizona. She is a foremost election denier there, and her polling is abysmal. She's trailing Trump dr- dramatically. She's almost certainly gonna lose what should be a very winnable Senate race for her. So, you know, people do really hate this stuff, so maybe marginally to the extent that it reminds them of an aspect of the- the Trump era and the, you know, Trump himself that they really find distasteful that- that may be on the margins, but, you know, on the other hand it's like, well, who doesn't know at this point what happened on January 6th and how they feel about it? So, that's where I feel like it- it's probably unlikely to be electorally consequential even as I think having the historic record to be able to look back on and increased understanding is important.
- CWChris Williamson
One of my friends tweeted earlier on, "The ease with which dramatic behavior gets attention online has convinced many political activists that a better world doesn't require years of patient work, only a sufficient quantity of drama."
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
It just feels like that's what-
- KBKrystal Ball
Ugh.
- CWChris Williamson
... sort of Twitter feels like to me at the
- 28:21 – 32:58
How Politically Influential is Elon Musk?
- CWChris Williamson
moment.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, how... Speaking of that, how influential do you think Elon Musk is?
- KBKrystal Ball
Very. Uh, I- I-
- CWChris Williamson
In s- in actual swaying of votes, changing the, the opinions-
- KBKrystal Ball
Well, here's, here's the thing. How much do I think Twitter matters? I don't know. Um, you know, you could actually, and my- my colleague Ryan Grim makes the case, and I think it's- it's compelling although hard to say, that, uh, Elon Musk Twitter is actually in some ways bad for Republicans because it's created this just, like, right-wing echo chamber where they think all of their worst opinions are super popular and creates a bit of a disconnected bubble where, for example, you can think it's a smart idea to lie about Haitian immigrants eating pets and think that this is gonna sell nationwide and it doesn't. Um, so, you know, there's- there's a debate about whether Twitter, his stewardship t- of Twitter is effective for Republicans and for Trump, uh, specifically. But Elon Musk, according to Trump, is putting half a billion dollars into the Trump campaign. Half a billion.
- CWChris Williamson
Could that not be- Could that not be hyperbole from Trump to just make it sound impressive?
- KBKrystal Ball
Very possible. And that's the other thing about the American election system-
- CWChris Williamson
Y- you can't say, "Oh, Trump- Trump- Trump lies all the time-"
- KBKrystal Ball
... is we don't know because he's not disclosed.
- CWChris Williamson
"... except for this thing," which is like, I don't wanna believe.
- KBKrystal Ball
But we- we know it's tens of millions. We know it's an incredibly substantial sum. And, uh, we know that he's effectively moved to Pennsylvania and is running key parts of the Trump campaign. So again, I'll separate, you know, electorally will it make a difference? Uh, hard to say. Certainly having that money helps Trump more than not having that money, and Trump's a little c- cash-strapped this, um, election cycle. What matters more to me about Elon's influence is, um, he's already been promised a plum government position with wide-ranging authorities as best we can tell. And Elon Musk, however you feel about him, this is not a disinterested actor. Last year alone, just Tesla and SpaceX received $15 billion in federal government contracts. US taxpayer dollars to the tune of $15 billion in a single year. He is one of the largest...... contractors to the Pentagon. So-
- CWChris Williamson
Is that because he creates the best technology that's the most advanced? We've got Boeing stranding, uh, making astronauts stranded in a-
- KBKrystal Ball
I'm not say, I'm not saying that he shouldn't be, but I am saying that if you are that, you should not be in charge of a large swath of the government, because you have a massive conflict of interest. I don't care whether it's Elon Musk-
- CWChris Williamson
Sure, there's a lot of those as you go up with, with people that have been in Big Pharma and then they end up working for the FDA, you've got this-
- KBKrystal Ball
Of course, yes.
- CWChris Williamson
... you know, that these are replete with these kinds of issues.
- KBKrystal Ball
Oh, absolutely. And you see it, you know, to, to make the, the parallel on the Democratic side, because this is not a, meant to be a partisan point. It's meant to be a principled point about the corrupting influence of money in politics and the rising influence, specifically billionaires in politics. I do think Elon is a uniquely extreme example pushing the boundaries of this in a way that there is no comparable other example. And I can, I can make that case in a moment. But, you know, to give you an example on Democratic side, Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn billionaire, uh, Mark Cuban, who, um, we all know who Mark Cuban is. They both are big Kamala donors. Um, they haven't given as much to her anywhere close, as far as we know, again, campaign finance being opaque, anywhere close to as much. Um, but, you know, they're going out there and clearly trying to shape what she does next time around. They don't like the SEC enforcement on, um, crypto in particular. So, uh, Mark Cuban has said, "Hey, I wanna be SEC chair." And there's been pressure around that. And then in addition, um, Lina Khan, who's been the head of the FTC, the Federal Trade Commission, and been very aggressive in terms of antitrust enforcement, which I think is incredibly important for competition, um, Wall Street absolutely hates her because she's, you know, putting a, a sort of icing a lot of mergers and acquisitions that are how a lot of Wall Streeters make, you know, fat bonuses and make a lot of money. And so both Reid Hoffman and Mark Cuban, and a few other billionaires on the Kamala Harris side have really been trying to use their influence and power to shape what that regime will look like next time around as well. So, I'm not saying that there's, like, you know, one party that is immune to this and the other is not. But because of the size of the dollar figures that we can tell and the level of involvement and the, um, large government contracts, the fact that he does run a social media giant in addition, you know, I think it's, um ... I think everybody should be deeply troubled by the idea of this one individual, regardless of how you feel about him or who he is or how brilliant you think he is or whatever, any one individual who is not being voted for having that kind of control in the federal government.
- 32:58 – 38:01
The Danger of Social Media Becoming More Siloed
- KBKrystal Ball
- CWChris Williamson
What do you think is the downstream implication of having more siloed off social media platforms? You know, I, I would say that Twitter, up until Elon took it over, did seem to, uh, have not quite a mainstream media, but a bit of a left-leaning sort of partisan s- s- sensorial attitude.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, but now, I, I don't know how it works, you may know, uh, the ecosystem, everyone on the left for whom Elon and Trump are too toxic have fucked off to Threads. And then there's Truth Social, which is like-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... Twitter's Twitter. And then there's Twitter, which kind of does feel a little bit right of center now, but maybe that's just, you know, like putting your hand in cold water after it's been in hot water, and it's because of comparatively to how it was before. Like, what do you make of the increasing, uh, siloing, the compartmentalization of groups to a platform which only really reinforces what they believe?
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, I mean, I think it just makes everyone increasingly deranged, you know, if you're just like circle jerking all day on (laughs) your own little siloed platform. And not to like, you know, this is, this is very self-serving, but I'll give, I'll give you an example. In, you know, my own professional life, I work with Saagar, we co-host a show, and you know, sometimes he'll bring stories to the table and I'm like, "You know, did you see that there's a thing ... Like, that's not really what ha-" And, and I will also, because of the ecosystem I live in, bring something to the table where it's like, "You know, did you see on the other hand there's this point?" And so, um, you know, as best we can, we kinda have to check each other, right? And so if you just have people feeding one another what they wanna hear, yeah, I think it ends up increasingly deranged. And I think we've, I think we've seen that. You know, I mentioned the Haitian pets thing, that is very prominent example. There's all kinds of stuff going on with like, you know, people floating that Hurricane Helene was generated by Democrats specifically to target Republican areas. Like, that's insane. That is insane.
- CWChris Williamson
What are some of the, what are some of the ones going in the opposite direction that you've found?
- KBKrystal Ball
I mean, listen, if you go back to Russiagate, there was a lot of derangement there, you know. There is, um, (laughs) very prominent liberal conspiracies right now about Donald Trump shitting his pants (laughs) in public.
- CWChris Williamson
I thought that was a Biden thing. Was that not a Biden thing?
- KBKrystal Ball
But I ... Well.
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, it's r- this is, this is like a-
- KBKrystal Ball
No one cares about Biden anymore, he's old news. (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Right. I need to t- we need to talk, we need to talk about that. Like, the guy that's running the country at the moment was at, I think he was at the beach when the hurricane was happening recently.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Is he just ... Like, nobody's paying real attention to him.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
And I think that this fits into a broader, a broader question that I've got about whether Kamala is a change candidate-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
... or whether she has incumbent legitimacy. Because it seems like the Democrats are trying to bifurcate off where they want her to have this, this degree of legitimacy-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... but also that, "We have got problems and I know and I'm gonna fix it." And, you know, the best point, the only really good point that Trump made in, in their debate was the very final one, which was, "You've had three years to do this. And what, what have you been doing all of this time? You can't talk about the problems that you're encountering whi- whilst not pointing the finger at yourself." So how, how do you think that sort of circle is getting squared and what's the sort of modern role of Joe Biden for the rest of this?
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah. I, I wanna-Let me come back to that, 'cause there's- there's one other point that I wanna make, substantive point, on the- the conspiracy question, which is that I- I think genuinely the conspiracy issue is worse on the right right now. And the reason is because the right is more estranged from establishment institutions. And if you look at the- the polling of trust in the media, trust in government, trust in, you know, the epi- like every mainstream institution you can ima- imagine, Republicans don't trust them. And so it opens up a lot of opportunity for people to come in and say, "Well, they're not telling you this, but this is the truth. This is the real story of what's really going on." And so, you know, this is not about like Republicans being stupid or whatever, but because there is this deep mistrust, I think it's opened up more of a space for increasingly wild conspiracies like Democrats are controlling the weather. And then, you know, I think Twitter under Elon has helped to fuel that ecosystem, and the siloing you're talking about, I think that helps to fuel that ecosystem as well. And so that's why I think gen- there's, right now there's some story going around that was like just completely invented by this guy that previously fabricated other stories and got caught about Tim Walz that a lot of people are taking very seriously. So, um, I do think right now it's- it's more of an issue on the right. But to go back to your question about-
- CWChris Williamson
I- No, I've got, no, I've got stuff on that one. Sorry. Uh-
- KBKrystal Ball
Go a- what? Go- go ahead. What do you got? What?
- CWChris Williamson
On- On your conspiratorial point.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Well, just that, uh,
- 38:01 – 43:19
Left-Leaning Bias in Legacy Media
- CWChris Williamson
I was fascinated by this as well that we're talking about the election coming down to a nail-biter. Um, but pretty much anybody... I mean, you- you- you can even look at, um, the, uh, campaign donations from, uh, big media organization employees. They skew massively left to the point where there's like-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
It- It- It's very, very, uh, sort of biased in one direction. How- how different do you think the outcome of the election would be if you had more equal representation in, uh, legacy media, mainstream media from a talking standpoint? I mean, we've seen Scientific American come out in support of Kamala Harris. We saw... Who was it that came out the other week? Washington Post or who was that?
- KBKrystal Ball
I'm not sure. I mean, I'm sure they will, if they haven't yet, but-
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. O- E- Everybody-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... has come out to endorse... No, it wasn't. It was, uh, not The Spectator. What's the equivalent of The Spectator but on the other side? The Atlantic. The Atlantic-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... came out in support of Kamala Harris, having only three weeks ago published an article titled Scientific American Didn't Need To Endorse Anybody. Um, so like this... I don't know, if somebody applied the right amount of pressure to the right place... My point being, big left-leaning influence when it comes to legacy media, mainstream media. How big of a difference would that make if it were on a nail-biter, if the scales had been evened a little bit in that regard? Do you think that that could change the outcome?
- KBKrystal Ball
Um, po- potentially. Um, but I think that ignores that, uh, you know, there is a large establishment at this point, conservative media, media ecosystem as well. I mean, Fox News continues to be the largest cable news outlet. Um, Daily Wire is massive and very influential. There's, you know... In independent media, it's dominated by right-leaning, um, podcasts and influencers that are-
- CWChris Williamson
Somebody would say... I- I- I wonder whether someone would say, "Look at the-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... you've had to, you've had to kind of create your own ecosystem in order to be able to make this happen." When we talk about the more established, more mainstream, which presumably have a degree of legitimacy, maybe they reach more people, maybe they reach people that you can't get through independent media, that, that-
- KBKrystal Ball
Do they have a degree more legitimacy (laughs) on the story? They do.
- CWChris Williamson
That's ex- Uh, unfortunately, not anymore. Yeah, you're probably right.
- KBKrystal Ball
Y- Yeah. I mean, my... So, uh, I think it's absolutely fair to say that the, uh, legacy outlets certainly have a like liberal, pro-Democratic Party bias. You know, I'm not a liberal. I'm a leftist, and I see... Uh, I actually feel like my perspective doesn't really exist in any of these places. And at least CNN will bring on like a perfunctory, you know, Scott Jennings or whoever to rep the Republican point of view. It is very rare that people with my political views are represented there at all. So I feel very erased in the entirety of the media ecosystem. But to be honest with you, the- the, um, bias that concerns me more in all of these spaces, whether they're sort of elite conservative media or elite liberal legacy media, is more of a class and regional bias. Because you have a lot of people who, you know, all went to elite, oftentimes Ivy League institutions, who grew up with very similar backgrounds, many of them from either New York, Boston, or California. And nothing wrong with having that background, but it does mean that you're getting a very particular view of the world. And I think that probably has been more of an issue for them than anything, in terms of getting some just key fundamental things wrong about their understanding of the country and about the way they frame coverage, the stories they choose to cover, and- and all of those things. To me, that's- that's a bigger issue. And, um, unfortunately, as... Especially as regional papers disappear and it's- there's more and more media consolidation into it, it's like it's just the New York Times and it's just the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal and, you know, these cable news outlets, and that's kind of it. The more you have that con- uh, that consolidation and that nationalization of the media environment, the- the more of that, um, narrow, biased, like. You know, one- one sort of class identity view that you're gonna get of the world.
- CWChris Williamson
Well, being British, you know, we're obsessed with class. Even when we think that we're not obsessed with class, we still are. And coming over here, it's- it's really interesting to see people... Nobody ever uses the word posh in the US.
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
In the UK-
- KBKrystal Ball
A good word. We- We need to use it.
- CWChris Williamson
... we always... Al- It's-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, everybody get... You know, he- he comes from a quite a posh family. You know, his- his-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
They- They- They tend to go on holiday to like Santorini in the summer, whatever, right? Um, so yeah, as a, uh, very-... scum of the earth working class person from the north of England.
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Um, maybe that's something, maybe that's a degree of hope for independent media, that it is able to cut through class divides because you don't have the same kinds of gatekeepers in that sort of a way. I don't know what, like, Shapiro or Tim Pool or, uh, like, fucking David Pakman's upbringing was.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
But you do have the opportunity, in a relatively egalitarian market, to have anybody rise to the top. It's basically-
- KBKrystal Ball
Certainly.
- 43:19 – 47:53
Should Kamala Be Treated as an Incumbent?
- CWChris Williamson
anyway, uh, Kamala Harris-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
... change candidate or incumbent legitimacy? What is she and how do you square-
- KBKrystal Ball
Uh.
- CWChris Williamson
... that circle?
- KBKrystal Ball
Well, I, I think that she should position herself as the change candidate, but I think she's utterly failed to do that. And I mean, one of her biggest mistakes on the campaign trail is going on The View and they ask her this incredibly softball, uh, honestly a question that's an opportunity for her to say, "You know, I'm not exactly like Joe Biden," who was unpopular as we know. And she says, "I, I can't think of a thing that I'd do differently than him." And, um, so, uh, I think it's difficult. You know, her, obviously she looks different. She, her identity is different. Um, her age is very different. That's important, that does matter, and I think people were really open. In fact, I think their default assumption was that she'd be a little bit different from Joe Biden, but she's been so terrified of... Um, the, the campaign has been so cautious and she's been so terrified of this idea that people are gonna perceive her as too liberal that she's been afraid to articulate any specific differences really on anything. And, um, you know, I, I think that has led her to, you know, a very tenuous position in the polls now because people want a change candidate. They aren't satisfied with the direction the country is headed in. And you need to be able to lay on a few specific things where you're gonna push things forward in a way that Joe Biden didn't. You know, I mean, one, to me, 'cause this is important to me and a lot of other people's b- besides, very obvious example is, you know, you have a, a vast majority of the country that wants to see a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, that wants us to withhold weapons from going to, you know, Israel to commit more atrocities. And even there there's zero willingness. You know, the politics of it pretty clear at this point for her on that side. Um, zero willingness to create any separation there whatsoever. You know, it's a political failure, but more importantly to me it's a moral failure.
- CWChris Williamson
It is kind of funny to think about the opportunities that, that politicians have to say stuff out front and then everybody talks about it as if it was, uh, uh, uh, uh, a rational decision, the reason that, uh, for instance, Kamala decided to say or not say a thing on The View. What I'm mostly fascinated by which we're never going to find out is what is the interpersonal political dynamics inside of the party? Like, why did Joe Biden drop out? Like, what was that conversation? What was the final thing that pushed him over the line to do that? What, was it dirt? Is it some house of cards bullshit? Like, you know, is that what went on or is it just that you can convince somebody through, um, you know, like normal motivations? "This is gonna be better for your legacy and we'll give you a cushy position in the blah, blah," and whatever it is. Uh, but the same thing goes for every single conversation. Why J.D. Vance was picked, why you don't go for, why you don't go for Josh Shapiro, et cetera, et cetera. Like all of that to me is just so fascinating. I want to know what's go- I wanna know... I, that's why I'm so keen to bring Bernie Sanders on as basically the, the person who tried to flip the table over as much as you could on the left o- over the last few years, to be like, you're like competing, then you're out of the tent, then you're kind of half back in the tent but also there's this sort of lingering that guy isn't on our side type thing, there's skepticism.
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
I just want... Uh, th- 'cause to me that seems, that's the most interesting thing, and it's a bit of politics that we never ever get to see which is the interpersonal dynamics going on behind the scenes. And the same thing goes for, uh, the current Harris campaign. Like, are you really able to throw your boss ki- like the guy that's kind of still e- like the actual President of the United States under the bus while he's still in power? Like, can you do that? Well, I mean you can but like what's the, what's the, what are the fallout? Wh- what are you trying to mediate from what's happening internally and externally? So yeah, fascinating stuff that we never get to see.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah. I mean, as best I can tell from the, with the, the Biden dropout pressure, it really just got to be where, you know, Obama was against him, Schumer was against him, Pelosi was against him, and the money, that was another key part, the money dried up. And you know, yeah, he's, he's old and he's senile but he's also got some muscle memory in terms of being in politics for what, about a 40, freaking 50 years. And so he knows if the money dries up, psh, that's, it's kind of game over. So I think once he realized that they're not gonna just forget it and fall back in line, you know, they're con- gonna continue to pressure, continue to put the screws to me until I'm out. I think that's when he finally, you know, very reluctantly decided to, to hang it up as best I can tell.
- 47:53 – 54:37
Incentivising Candidates to Say Nothing of Substance
- CWChris Williamson
Talking about the, uh-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... opportunity or the, the difficulty that some of the candidates have had with being frank when it comes to stating their positions, uh, it does feel a lot to me like there is nothing that you can do to further your cause. You can just mess up sufficiently badly that the other side uses it in a campaign promo.
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs) Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
Like, you know, the, the Trump, uh, Schultz interview within, I think it was 18 or 19 hours from publish the Harris campaign had used-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, they cut an ad. Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
They cut an ad from it.
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
I'm like, so what you're doing is, y- it literally is a game of playing defense which again causes each candidate to withdraw more, not necessarily from appearances or whatever but they're more cagey with the things that they say-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... they use more ob- obfuscatory language, they're caveating, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Um-So yeah, that again, just that incentive. So funny, so different.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah. It's, it's very troubling. Um, there's a lot of fucked up incentives in politics, because, uh, for example, like, Project 2025, you know, this big conservative blueprint that's put together, that Trump's very anxious to run away from at this point, and fair enough. His campaign didn't put it together. On the other hand, you know, this is the sort of thing that conservative think tanks put together all the time, and some of that will be implemented because it's the blueprint that's laying around. But he recognized immediately that actually having specific policy proposals out there is not a good thing, because then people can dig in, and they can criticize and they can pull out things that they don't like. You know, for example, in that Project 2025, they're like, "We're gonna ban porn." And I don't think that's probably all that popular (laughs) . So, putting specific things down gives people an opportunity to attack those specific things. Doing interviews that y- even a relatively friendly setting still opens up a possibility that you're gonna screw up in some critical way that your opponent can clip into an ad and, and, you know, use to their benefit. And that's why Kamala Harris for a long time was deciding like, "I'm just not really gonna do interviews, because I don't have to. The media's not pressuring me to. The public isn't actually really pressuring me to. And I know that I'm the type of person who might like, well, screw this up in a way that's kinda bad." And you know what? To be honest with you, she was kinda right. It's bad for democracy, but-
- CWChris Williamson
She's impressively unimpressive on-
- KBKrystal Ball
She-
- CWChris Williamson
... a long-form interview.
- KBKrystal Ball
You know, she, in that View interview, again, friendly space, gave them so much ammu- ammunition. You talk about, you know, the Harris campaign clipping an ad of, of Trump with, uh, Andrew Schultz. They clipped an ad of Kamala saying, "I'm just like Joe Biden," um, and are reportedly putting money behind it, playing at their rallies, et cetera. So, you know, I mean, can't blame them for doing that. Like, they're trying to win a campaign. But especially, this is the downside of like, the norms being broken. I'm not a big like, lover, defender of the norms as a leftist, as someone who, you know, is sort of adversarial to both of these parties. But there are certain things that were better. So for one, uh, one example, we had this norm of a certain number of debates that wasn't a legal requirement, but you just expected both candidates, they're gonna subject themselves to three debates. So, we at least have that much time to evaluate what their answers are and compare them, et cetera, et cetera. That norm is now gone. You know, we used to have a norm that was like, you would sit for the 60 Minutes interview and the Time interview and New York Times editorial board, and you would subject yourself to this sort of like, rigorous adversarial press process, and that's no longer the case. Now it's like, you know, I can go hang out with Alex Cooper on Call Her Daddy. I can go hang out with the NELK Boys and, you know, do that thing. And hey, that's a lot easier. It's a lot lower stakes. I'm reaching a large audience. I'm reaching demographic groups that are important to me, so why would I? Um, so I mean, that's, that's the downside of the, like, disruption of these quote unquote norms. I personal, I don't, I don't know if this is a radical view or not, but I personally think that candidates for office should be required to debate a certain number of times. I do think it should be, um, a legal requirement, because at its the very least that voters deserve in terms of making some sort of a decision. And in fact, going back to the point about Joe Biden, you know, Joe Biden did have primary opponents. They were completely iced out from the media. One of them, Dean Phillips, who I disagree with on a lot of things what was-
- CWChris Williamson
He's been on the show.
- KBKrystal Ball
Oh, has he? That's, I'm sure that was a great conversation. He's a, he's a nice guy. Um, you know, he was sounding the alarm. He's like, "This guy is too old. Like, we're gonna lose. This guy's too old." And by and large, he was iced out from the media. The Democrats said, "We're not having primaries." In some states, they literally just canceled the primary, did not have any debates. And think about not only was that a detriment to the American people and the Democratic Party because they didn't have an opportunity to have a process by which they might vet a candidate and choose who they want to succeed Joe Biden, but it ultimately really hurt, um, you know, Democratic Party elites who want to presumably win this election because if he had had to be subjected to a debate in a primary process, we would've seen much earlier, like, "Oh, holy shit. There is no way this is gonna work out." And then you've got time to not just go with, "Uh, who, who can we grab and like, throw into this place?" There's actually time to go through a process to generate excitement, to see which candidate is gonna perform the best. And I firmly believe that they would be in a much, much better position to win if they had gone through that price process and had an actual democratic process to choose Joe Biden's successor.
- CWChris Williamson
Do you think there would be a different successive?
- KBKrystal Ball
50/50. Yeah, I think Kamala came in with a lot of advantages just because of her position. Um, she also has a lot of advantages in terms of like, her fundraising base. You know, she has from being AG of California, she's got a lot of like, Silicon Valley, um, and Hollywood connections, and money matters in American politics. Um, and there are a, a lot of people who t- also are excited about the idea of, you know, first Black woman president. I understand that and I'm not denigrating that whatsoever. But there's also a reason why she didn't succeed last time around (laughs) , right? There's a reason why after voters saw her on the debate stage, saw her in interviews were like, "Maybe we'll go in a different direction." So, I sort of think it's 50/50 whether you would've ended up with Kamala or someone else. But even if it was Kamala, she would've then had to go through that trial by fire. She would've, uh, it's just like anything else. You put in your reps, you get better at it. She would be a more effective and better politician if she had had to go through that adversarial primary process. Um, so I f- I firmly believe they'd be in a much better place.
- CWChris Williamson
Obama
- 54:37 – 1:09:17
Obama Criticising Black Men For Not Supporting Kamala
- CWChris Williamson
was unhappy with Black brothers for not sufficiently supporting Kamala.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, how about that? (laughs) There's a lot to say about that. Um, so there's a good bit of polling at this point...... that indicates there has been some shift among a- all men actually, but specifically among working class Black and Latino men, some shift away from Democrats towards Republicans. And, you know, to shout out one of those mainstream outlets, New York Times did a deep dive into both the polling and also what's going on here, right? And, um, none o- uh, none of the answers they came up with were Democratic politicians aren't lecturing them enough and scolding them enough about (laughs) how they're failing. That was not one of the answers that they came up with. But there was a piece, there were, there were a number of potential rationales. One of them, though, I thought was really significant, really important, which is that, you know, when people voted for hope and change with Obama, and especially when Black Americans felt like, "Okay, having a Black man in the White House means that my interests are gonna be represented in a way that they never have been." And then they're, I'm not gonna say nothing good, and, you know, Obamacare improved things marginally, et cetera, et cetera, but nothing really fundamentally changed. And so, there's a, a large percentage of Black men and Latino men who say that they don't believe that Democrats keep their promises, and I think that's an important part of this, this story of how the Democrats have started to see erosion in some of these key groups where, you know, Democrats are still overwhelmingly gonna win, Black voters, including Black male voters, it's still a question mark whether some of these polling trends really manifest on election day, et cetera, et cetera. But I do think that the failure to, you know, really offer and fight for a concrete economic agenda that, again, goes to those class interests over the racial identity interests has been a, a major failure of the Democratic party and has opened up space for, you know, another message from the Republican party, one that I wildly disagree with, right? I do think that, uh, Trump in particular just loves to demonize immigrants and blame immigrants for every problem, but that's gonna be a lot more compelling if you're not offering an answer on the other side. So, um-
- CWChris Williamson
There's that, uh, (clears throat) I think, is it the, uh, groups that we serve on the, uh, Harris/Walz campaign funding website, and it's a list of every group in the world-
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... except for men. And then there's another one which is a bunch of proposals and there's different, uh, examples, and it's, uh, like a, a, a Black woman in a hard hat on a construction site, and it's a bl- and it, the, that group, not even Black men, there's just no men, no men at all on that. So, it really does feel like, I've had a number of conversations, Richard Reeves, if you know who that is, from the American-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, I do. We, we interviewed him as well.
- CWChris Williamson
... Institute for Boys and Men.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah, he's very insightful.
- CWChris Williamson
Phenomenal guy. But this election very much seems to have, at least on the left of the aisle, forgotten men, uh-
- KBKrystal Ball
Well, there was, uh, the White Dudes for Harris organizing call, I don't know if you were on that, Chris, but-
- CWChris Williamson
I, I, I, I was, I wasn't on, I had a few friends that were on, um-
- KBKrystal Ball
But I would, I am actually curious for your, your view here. You have, um, you know, you're, you're more of the expert in the, the bro sphere of, uh-
- CWChris Williamson
Correct, correct. If there's any expertise I've got, it's that. Yeah.
- KBKrystal Ball
(laughs) Of, of, uh, what's going on because, uh, there's, you know, obviously there's a large gender gap. I think the, the gender divide in this election may be the most profound one over, uh, you know, perhaps any other identifying characteristic. I think part of that certainly is abortion being such a central message, but you also see the way that the Trump campaign is really playing into that, both with their media appearance choices, also with just the vibe at the RNC, I mean, Hulk Hogan up there, Dana White and whatever, like, playing into almost like a camp version o- of masculinity, but, you know, I wonder what you make of, um, what's going on there under the, under the surface?
- CWChris Williamson
I think it's gonna be very difficult to get men to feel supportive or welcoming when so much of, so much of their sex is sort of demonized in one way or another. And even if you can't point your finger to the precise Harris ad campaign that happened, there does seem to be a lot of sort of m- men bashing that happens on the left, whatever that mean, like however you want to define it, there often seems to be a sense of male privilege and, and sort of the, the, the, uh, diminishment of, uh, the issues that men have. Like I haven't heard anybody, not one, and this is both left and right, talk about male suicide.
- KBKrystal Ball
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
And Richard was telling me about the most recent set of stats that they've got out of the Institute for Boys and Men which was, if men had taken their own lives at the same rate as women from 1999 until today, there would be half a million more men here.
- KBKrystal Ball
Jesus.
- CWChris Williamson
Which is more people, more men than died in World War II. So, it's like, it's just such an obscene number of, of people. And I don't know, there just seems to be, you don't feel particularly welcome by the left. At best, you feel like not demonized and then sometimes sort of outright do, especially if you're sort of a, a, a white guy at the top of the, the privilege hierarchy. But then again what were we talking about before that nobody's, nobody's discussing class? I, I, it, it-
- KBKrystal Ball
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
It feels s- strange to me that, you know, whatever Appalachian or Cumbrian or sort of north e- east of the UKian person, some guy is like, "Yeah, yeah, please tell me again about my, like, white male privilege that I've got." It just seems this, uh, the, the purity spiral doesn't seem to be particularly useful, uh, anymore. And I think that people are kind of, they've got fatigue around that kind of puritanical approach to, uh, victimhood hierarchies.
- KBKrystal Ball
I think there's something to that. I w- I will say, um, I think that Kamala has done better than Hillary in not obsessing over, you know, um, uh, like Elizabeth Warren famously had a plan for, like, rural Black disadvantaged farmers and, you know, really slicing into these very specific, like, racial or other identifying characteristics group. Now she did just put out a-... plan that I find, whatever Did you see the crypto one? We can talk about that. The black ma- yes. (laughs) We can talk about that. But-
- CWChris Williamson
Yes, we get to talk about the crypto one.
- KBKrystal Ball
I will say that, um, you know, when she's got- been asked, for example, about her own trailblazing status, she's very quickly pivoted to, "This isn't about me. This is about you." And-
- CWChris Williamson
She's diminished, diminished being Black and diminished being a woman.
- KBKrystal Ball
Hillary really leaned into, like, "This is about me. Th- this is about my ambitions." Like, "Won't be, it'd be cool if a woman, namely me-"
- CWChris Williamson
Well, what was that?
- KBKrystal Ball
"...is living in the United States." You know? (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
"I'm with her. I'm with her," was the tagline, right?
- KBKrystal Ball
Exactly. Yeah. And so, I do think Kamala has done a lot better job, uh, in terms of, of, of that dimension. But that doesn't mean that there's not still, you know, quite a lot of, of overhang and, and this sense that, um, you know, issues that may be specific to men are not the focus of the Democratic Party or there's just, like, not a sense of, "This is a place for us." Uh, if I, if I put on, um, you know, if I take, take a step back from these two particular candidates, parties, whatever, uh, and I'll run this by you and you can tell me what you think, like, I think part of what is happening in society right now is, in American society and Western society in general, is, um, people are much more precarious, right? It's very difficult to secure those sort of basic trappings of, like, middle-class stability. The house, the education, the family, like, those things, even before the latest inflationary, uh, spiral, were getting wildly more expensive over decades. You know, I mean, housing is the, the main example, but college education, the price tag on that is insane. Healthcare, the price tag on that is insane. Childcare, the price tag on that is insane. And so culturally, like the, the classic view of the man is like the provider, right? The person who's gonna be able to secure that lifestyle for themselves and their family. And so if, over decades, both parties effectively collude to make that next to impossible, you're gonna have a lot of people who are unhappy and who are, are searching and who are manifesting, you know, the, the higher suicide rates and all of those things that are, are very real. And so I think that if you just completely, you know, invisibilize that or, you know, just dismiss any man who explains that, you know, he's got, he's- has something that he's unhappy about or he's struggling with or whatever, then yeah, of course, they're, they're gonna, they're not gonna come your way. They're gonna search in a different direction. And you've had... I think this is maybe more of a symptom than a cause, um, but, uh, Hasan Piker talks about this. Basically, all of the sort of male, like, hobby spaces have become more and more right wi- so like if you're a gamer, right? There's a, like, very, like, right-wing gamer pipeline there. If you work out and you're, like, a gym buff guy, like that space is increasingly, like, right-leaning as well. A l- all, as I mentioned before, you know, most of the major podcasts, um, bro podcasts tend to be more right-leaning. I suspect your audience is probably more right-leaning as well. Um, and so whether that's symptom or cause, I don't know, but that's the other thing is that's like, that's just kind of like the natural progression and pipeline for young men in particular, um, online pursuing whatever their hobbies and interests happen to be.
- 1:09:17 – 1:15:38
The Left’s Relationship With God
- CWChris Williamson
got a complicated relationship with God now?
- KBKrystal Ball
Complicated? (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Like-
- KBKrystal Ball
What do you mean? (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
That by, by talking about it, you kind of play into what now has become a cliché sort of Republican, God country type, um, position. I don't... I just haven't heard i- in the UK, for instance, we don't have a religious-
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... right. There's no religious right in-
- KBKrystal Ball
Okay.
- CWChris Williamson
... in, in Britain. That's, that is a huge fuck-off voting bloc. Simply doesn't exist in the UK. So me, me coming over here and, and seeing, you know, an increasingly secular world across everywhere, but I haven't seen anything really to do with religion, uh, except maybe, like, we're accepting of people of all faiths. And s- like, from a multicultural perspective, I haven't, I haven't seen... Uh, and I imagine that because of the meme that is becoming increasingly prevalent of kind of the Bible-bashing right wing, you know, alligator swamp gun-totin' person, that if you try and lean into the God-shaped hole in your campaign, uh, messaging, maybe it seems in some ways exclusionary to the group of people that you're trying to cultivate. And that's what I meant by complicated, that it must be i- m- I haven't seen much of it, and I have to assume that that's because it's difficult to thread the needle of talking to people on the left about God without seeming like you're making some sort of value judgment that's gonna get you in trouble.
- KBKrystal Ball
I think you have to be... It has to be authentic, and if it's not, then stay away, right? And, um, you know, there are... Uh, more liberals identify certainly as, like, non-religious than conservatives. That means very likely you're gonna have fewer genuinely religious Democratic elected politicians. And so, um, you know, it's funny, um, uh, my husband Kyle and I were talking about this just the other day. Bernie Sanders, who was Jewish, but not... He will say himself, not, like, not particularly religious. He was asked about that back maybe 2016, and he was very o- up-front about, like, "Listen, I'm not that religious a person, but here to me is what religion means as these, like, sort of core values of, you know, acceptance and kindness," whatever he said, you know? And so I think if you're not coming at... I don't think everyone can pull that off. Like, I think you have to be coming at it from a genuine place of like, "This is my faith, and this is important, and this is how it informs me." And there just probably are fewer messengers on the Democratic side who can pull that off. I'll tell you one person who does speak with that kind of, um, religious moral authority is Dr. Cornel West. You know, that is very clearly authentic to him, to his tradition, to his ideology. But, um, that strain... I, I think it's fair to say that strain of leftism is somewhat less common than perhaps it, it once was. Um, which, you know, is a reflection of, of a shifting society. I'm not myself religious, so if I tried to s- talk about it, like, people would be like, "What are you talking about? This is ridiculous." Like, "You don't care-"
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah.
- KBKrystal Ball
"... about this stuff," you know?
- CWChris Williamson
Speaking of the shifting society, did you see Ana Kasparian's Substack post?
- KBKrystal Ball
I did. (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
What do you make of... What do you make of that?
- KBKrystal Ball
Um, I like Ana, you know, and I, um, have always had, like, a, a, a friendly relationship with her. Um, I, you know, I... I'm... I guess I need to know more. I don't think that... There's a lot of accusations being thrown. "Oh, she's a grifter, and she's doing the same thing that, like, you know, Dave Rubin did, the same grift." Uh, Jimmy Dore, Dave Rub- whatever. Pick whoever you want, or, um, you know, to go back to the religious point, like, Russell Brand getting accused very credibly of rape and then doing this very demonstrative Christianity conversion. It's like, okay. Um-But, uh, I guess I'm a little bit confused about what, where exactly she is. And it seems to me that as she's self-described her political evolution, which, you know, it's fine for people to evolve their views, et cetera, it actually has put her more in line in some ways with sort of, like, the core Democratic Party. So I, if I had to characterize Ana's views based on, you know, what she said publicly and what was in the Substack post, et cetera, it seems like she still has some, like, leftish views on social safety net stuff, which, you know, you're definitely more likely to get on a Democratic Party than the Republican Party. And then she's moved right or is more vocally right on things like, uh, crime and the border. And the Democratic Party, I mean, Kamala Harris has been running this very aggressive, like, border hawk campaign and tried to pass this very aggressive border hawk bill as well. So, um, it... From what I can tell, it just makes her more actually in line with where the Democratic Party is. So I don't know. That's... I don't, I don't impute any, like, negative motivations. I think it's fine for her to shift. I'm just, like, a little bit still trying to figure out where she is exactly.
- CWChris Williamson
I think people have got concerns around, uh, Kamala and the border because, again, like, you've been in power for so long, and it does seem like a-
- KBKrystal Ball
I mean, the vice president can't really do anything. Let's, let's be real.
- CWChris Williamson
Was she not the border czar, though?
- KBKrystal Ball
Like, they don't have any real power. (laughs) But, and-
- CWChris Williamson
Was she not the border czar?
- KBKrystal Ball
What does that mean?
- CWChris Williamson
I don't know. It was, it was-
- KBKrystal Ball
What authority does that actually confer?
- CWChris Williamson
I, I'm pretty sure it was retconned out of a New York Times post or something like that in retrospect.
- KBKrystal Ball
Yeah. I mean, listen, the, the thing is, I, I don't agree with the way the Democrats have positioned themselves. Personally, I'm in favor of a controlled border and a lot more legal immigration. Um, but, like, a lot more legal immigration. So, I think that the Democratic messaging, which has just basically embraced the Republican frame of like, "Immigrants are bad, period, end of story," um, I think that that's been a political and (clears throat) a moral failure. But, um, you know, they genuinely did try to pass this bill that was very hawkish and, um, abandoned all of the previous... Previous Democratic commitment had been, "We'll do the tight security, but we also want a path to citizenship." It scuttled all of that, added a bunch of new border agents, et cetera, et cetera. So they really did try to pass that, and Donald Trump really did try to stop it. Um, so, you know, if that's your, if that's your thing, if you're looking for the Democrats to move right on the border, like, congratulations, they already have.
Episode duration: 1:16:15
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