Modern WisdomWhy Women Have Become Much More Liberal Than Men - Daniel Cox
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,040 words- 0:00 – 6:52
The Ideological Gap Between Young Men & Women
- CWChris Williamson
You are in the thick of it right now. That article that you wrote at the start of the year caused quite the ruckus.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, it did. Uh, and it's funny 'cause this is some research we've been doing for, you know, over a year. And, uh, often it just takes a single, uh, op-ed and people start paying attention.
- CWChris Williamson
How would you categorize the last couple of months for you and the sort of fallout?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, I mean, one of the really interesting things is people are debating just exactly the extent, uh, of the divide, the nature of it, what's going on. So you have a lot of pollsters like myself saying, "Hey, you know, this is kind of unprecedented what we're seeing, uh, young women becoming much more liberal." And demographically, we're seeing rapid changes when it comes to, like, LGBTQ identity, um, growing education divides between young men and young women. So there's a lot of things that are emerging or new, and the- the political divide is just one of those things. But there are the- the- the cold water throwers who, you know, largely, uh, political scientists who want to say, "Well, you know, hold on, let's, let's wait till we, you know, we can get some corroborating data." Um, but the fact of the matter is actually there's a lot of corroborating data already from a- a lot of really reliable sources that suggest that something is going on. And we can, I think, debate the margins around how extreme is the divide, how far apart are young men and young women and on what issues, but I think we can safely say that something really big is happening.
- CWChris Williamson
All right, so just how big is this ideological divide between young men and young women? What's happening?
- DCDaniel Cox
So, uh, according to the Gallup data, which is some of the- the research that we've been using, uh, we conduct our own surveys at the Survey Center on American Life, but we also do look at a lot of different other polls from the Pew Research Center and places like Gallup that have really long and reliable trustworthy trends. And so Gallup shows beginning around 2014, 2015, this- this emerging, uh, ideological divide with young women becoming significantly more liberal, uh, around 42, 43%, uh, identify as liberal, uh, in the latest polls, and young men really haven't shifted all that much when it comes to their ideology. So there's a, you know, anywhere from a 12 to 14 point gap between them now.
- CWChris Williamson
Right. You've got at no time in the past quarter century has there been such a rapid divergence between the views of young men and young women.
- DCDaniel Cox
Right. And, you know, as far as we know, uh, this is something that will continue to shape the way these folks relate to each other in terms of their, um, you know, priorities when it comes to, you know, the politicians that they want to, uh, nominate and elect and the issues that they care about. One of the really significant divisions we've seen is actually over the issue of abortion. And while both young men and young women tend to lean, uh, pretty significantly pro-choice, when it comes to the priorities of that issue, uh, we did a poll in 2022 right before the- the midterm elections, and 61% of young women said that abortion was a- a- a critical priority for them, but it was only like 30% of young men. So the- just in terms of what they care about and how much they care about it is really different.
- CWChris Williamson
What is the age bracket for this? 'Cause could this not just be the usual young people are more liberal effect, and we've got a bit of social media that's maybe kind of emphasizing or- or magnifying that and kind of that explains it?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, uh, I- I think it, when it comes to this stuff, there's a lot that's going on and a lot that's pretty complicated. So I- I think that social media actually plays a really significant role in all this. Um, but the other thing is, like, when it comes to the- the- the age gaps, one of the problems we have in polling is we're often talking about different age groups. So in the research that we do, we identify young people as 18 to 29. And we identify as young adults or young women or young men. But some polls will- will scoot that up to 18 to 34, which is again, uh, you know, it's- they're young, but, uh, so also there's a pretty significant difference between comparing 18 to 34 or 18 to 29 in terms of life experience and, you know, uh, economically, people are just in some different positions in their mid-20s versus their- their early 30s. And so we do have this- this problem, sometimes we're talking past each other and different pollsters handle it handling things a little bit differently, and then journalists when they rush to cover this stuff, uh, not to mention podcasters, uh, they're trying to sort through, you know, a- a kind of confluence of- of different, uh, and sometimes contradictory information, and- and it can be challenging to sort through.
- CWChris Williamson
So is this different than just young people becoming more liberal? This is a... Because young people have always been young people, like, we have a-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
...a regular supply of 15-year-olds and 17-year-olds and 20-year-olds and such, but this is a marked difference from that?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. No, absolutely. So if you- we compared young people today versus young people a generation ago, so we- we're not comparing baby boomers and Generation Z, we're not comparing generational cohorts, we're look- actually looking at young people across time.
- CWChris Williamson
Right. Do men and women live on different planets then? They just see the world in very different ways?
- DCDaniel Cox
Mars and Venus you mean? Uh...
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
I- I think in one way, one of the things that's really challenging, uh, and I think i- is contributing to this, uh, kind of gender antagonism that we're seeing is that so much of the interactions we're seeing among young men and young women is incurring online, on social media, uh, on platforms that, uh, it's really easy to- to be and de- to be dehumanized and to dehumanize people, to, uh, not proceed with a lot of- of caution or empathy, uh, not to- to, you know, take people seriously, and so I think that's a- a significant problem. One- one of the things that I wrote, uh, recently for this great organization called the American Institute for Boys and Men, uh, which Richard Reeves runs, uh, who's- who's great, I- I'm a huge fan, and, uh, one of the things I wrote for them is the decline in dating, uh, particularly among young men. We've seen a really precipitous decline in how often...... uh, teenagers are, are dating, spending time, uh, having a boyfriend or a girlfriend. Uh, and I think that's problematic, uh, in that you kinda learn how to engage with someone, uh, in, in, uh, really difficult and, and, uh, situations that require a lot of nuance, a lot of understanding. Uh, a lot, again, a lot of empathy. So, like, successful relationships have all that and can be very fraught. And so, it's helpful to have experiences earlier so that when you, you know, move into your, your 20s and you're o- on your own, you have some experience to draw, uh, draw from when you're, you're trying to engage and trying to date and, and navigating really difficult, uh, complex, uh, romantic situations.
- 6:52 – 14:20
Why Young Women Have Moved to the Left
- DCDaniel Cox
- CWChris Williamson
Why have young women moved to the left then? What's the driving forces here?
- DCDaniel Cox
So I think there's a- there's some... There's not any one thing, of course. Uh, this is s- social science, so there's, uh, a number of factors that we might consider. But I think there's some obvious ones. When you look at just what's happening that with the Me Too movement, I think that was pretty significant. We conducted a bunch of in-depth interviews among young women and young men after a dating survey that we conducted earl- early last year. And one of the things we heard from these young women again and again was how formative that experience was, be- you know, growing up and sort of seeing this happen in real time. Uh, the- there, I think, was a source of like, uh, "We're in this together," um, this, this idea of kind of shared or linked fate that, um, you know, if this thing was happening to this person, it could happen to me too. Uh, right? That's, that's Me Too. So that, that would be, felt like there was something, uh, of a commonality of interest and concerns there. I think that was, was pretty critical. And then for, for young men, what was really interesting is, a lot of them said, like, "Well, this is not really about me. Uh, this is about celebrities," or, "This is, like, the kind of malevolent dudes out there who are kinda, you know, awful and I have nothing to do with them." Uh, so as opposed to being kind of a structural, uh, concern, uh, it became something that they kind of dismissed as, as something that has nothing to do with them.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, I love the idea of linked fate. I'd never heard it before. You say, uh, "Two thirds of young women believe that in most or every way, what happens to women in the US will have a bearing on their own lives." It's this sort of like, uh, it's, it's like inbuilt sort of tribalism, but it's more emotional than, than tribalism.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, I mean, I think it's, it's kind of a recognition that there are structures in society or institutions that regardless of your race or ethnicity or religion or your geography, that you will have to navigate these things, that you are treated differently in American society because you're a, a woman. And I'm gonna throw a lot of polling at you, but this one I think is, is pretty interesting. So, Gallup tracked, uh, the, how, um, how women and men felt about the position of women in society, were they satisfied with the way women were treated? And over the last, like, 20 or so years, roughly similar numbers of men and women said that, yeah, they were basically sat- satisfied with how women were being treated. And then around 2016, 2017, uh, women just plummeted. So they were like 61%, uh, '16, '17, and then today, they're in the four- like the mid-40s. So they're, they're far less happy today about the way women are being treated in American society, um, which is a significant disruption from the past.
- CWChris Williamson
Despite the fact that you've got rising socioeconomic success for women, improvements in education, graduation from university, two women for every one man completing a full-year US college degree, women earn 1,111 pounds more between the ages of 21 and 29 on average than men do, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So it seems like that has to be, at least in part, something memetic or something sort of cultural s- sort of, uh, like social psychology that's going on because at least in s- many of the ways that you can frame the reality of their experience, it is improving.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, I think u- undoubtedly you can't look ab- uh, objectively at w- whether it's economic data or, or data about politics, um, or just understanding the w- the way the culture has evolved and how we treat issues like, uh, sexual harassment and discrimination and not think that things are better for women than they were, you know, in the 1970s. But int- interestingly, um, some sociologists have actually looked at the way young women felt in the '70s versus today in, in terms of how much gender discrimination was a problem and how much they experienced it, and actually, women today feel like they have things worse. Uh, so some of this I think is about, like, understanding of, okay, uh, what behavior do I categorize as, as sexual harassment? And how am I f- how am I feeling about various types of, of these kind of infractions? So if a, you know, if a male coworker asked me out three times, is that... I- if he does it politefully, uh, politely and respectfully, is that, is that sexual harassment? How, how do we define those kinds of interactions?
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
And I think in the past, uh, you know, a lot of that stuff was kind of dismissed. And again, like, some of it was not good. Uh, a lot of it was not good and, and roundly criticized and, and, you know, should've been changed a long time ago.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, rightly so.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, but, but some of it is now, you know, we're sort of judging, I think, societally as, as smaller infractions, uh, are sort of treated the same as really significant infractions in behavior.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. Do you know what the Tocqueville Paradox is?
- DCDaniel Cox
I've not heard it.
- CWChris Williamson
Cool idea. So as living standards in a society rise, people's expectations rise along with them.
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
But when you start yourself o- off on that trajectory, the problem is reality has to, at some point, like, asymptote out. Like, it can't continue to just get infinitely better, but your expectations can.
- DCDaniel Cox
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
And it's this sort of comparison between the two. Also, uh, when you combine the Tocqueville Paradox with concept creep, you know, the, the ever-broadening of what might be considered to be racism or what might be considered to be sexism or what might be considered to be harassment. Again, not saying that these things don't exist, but I think that most sane people would agree that...There has been a hyper-sensitization to things that previously probably wouldn't have even appeared on the radar. Maybe they should've done, but a lot of the things that were occurring before have been gotten rid of, and much of the stuff which is happening now seems to be, uh, at- at the very least magnifying small things, uh, into big things.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. And of cour- I mean, I, you know, I wanna be very sensitive and careful about how we talk about this stuff. I mean, uh, it... But I think that's- that's absolutely right. An- and in terms of, um, you know, what you've- you've seen some, we've seen some, um, conservative but feminists talk about this issue and they say- they say it's- it's kind of stripping agency away from women to sort of say, "Hey, you know, we can't handle this," or, you know, "We don't know how to navigate these situations," or, right? Like... And- and again, if- if- if the- the behavior is really, you know, bad, heinous, um, there should be, you know, legal, moral, ethical red lines for all that stuff, and there should be a zero tolerance policy. But I- I think a lot of this stuff falls in a- in a gray-er area, uh, and so how we treat it, like, culturally is, and socially, is- is pretty important. For m-
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. And it's open, it's open to debate as well, right?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. No, absolutely. And a lot of this stuff is- is- is based on perception, so how did I perceive this, the interaction? How does, how did I think this person was- was, uh, oriented towards me and what- what were their, what was their intent? But the other thing, and I think this is, uh, something that is missed in all this discussion, uh, which again I'm- I'm generally sympathetic to the fact that we aren't as nuanced when we talk about this stuff as we should be, but there's a rising rate of sexual harassment that's actually occurring online. Uh, so the Pew Research Center looked at over, like, a five-year period and found that a range of behaviors that young women are, were far more likely to- to be, uh, experience some type of sexual harassment, uh, and they defined a bunch of different types of behaviors. And so th- in that way, uh, it is increasing, right? That- that is a difference we have.
- CWChris Williamson
That's a good, that's a good point that I hadn't considered, that, uh, technology
- 14:20 – 19:11
Downsides of the MeToo Movement
- CWChris Williamson
has enabled new types of sexual harassment. Unsolicited dick pics, people sending-
- DCDaniel Cox
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
... sort of, uh, rude, unwanted messages, stalking, harassment online, that sort of stuff. That's- that's something that I hadn't considered. That being said, um, the toxic male gaze, if you look at somebody who, uh, if you look at a woman on the Tube for longer than five seconds, that constitutes-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... something that they should be concerned about. Um, w- workplace culture being incredibly sort of anti-, um, collaborative, I think, and what it feels like, you know, I'm- I'm not in an office but what it feels like from at least friends that work there, um, their felt sense is that trepidation. That they're- they're in a lot of fear. And that is going to come across as kind of, like, cold to a lot of women, that they actually want to be able to collaborate with their male counterparts.
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
Some really interesting research that suggests that post-MeToo, uh, male supervisors were less likely to collaborate with female graduates-
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm.
- CWChris Williamson
... because they were scared that something downstream from that was going to get them in trouble, even if they didn't have any intention of doing that. So I- I do think that we need to be careful about what we make people expect. One of the other quotes that I thought was really interesting said, "Look," this is from a- a- a 21-year-old woman, "Luckily, I had all that over social media to shape the way I look at dating and men." She said it allowed her to use other people's experiences to form a sense of putting a guard up. A 20-year-old woman offered a similar take, that MeToo empowered her to stand up for herself. "I think it makes me less of a doormat." Again, female agency, taking control, independence, all that stuff, very, very good. But-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... it allowed her to use other people's experiences to form a sense of putting a guard up. I'm not convinced that putting a guard up based on other people's experiences, especially if it's a guy glancing over in the gym or, you know, like, some social media campaign that kind of maybe makes-
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... mountains out of molehills, I'm not convinced that that forms, uh, robust, psychologically healthy women. I think that that makes them hypervigilant, scared of lots of men, always on edge, and that can't be good for them either. That- that's not the sort of, uh, environment I want for women to inhabit from other women.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. And I- I think, uh, one of the problems is, and we could talk about this a lot, is taking so many of our cues from social media, right, versus our own ex- personal experience and- and the people that we know. 'Cause you'll often hear this kind of divergence where, um, in- in the research that we've done, women will say, "Yeah, you know, the peop- the men in my life, you know, uh, siblings, uh, cousins, friends, are all great. Um, but I, yeah, I think overall, men are kinda terrible." And well, where are you getting that perspective from? 'Cause your real world experience is actually telling you a very different story by, "Well, I'm- I'm seeing these terrible men online." And w- well, what- what kind of, you know... What- what do you think the algorithm's doing? Is it ju- is it putting, you know, the kind of boring, polite, respectful men, and do you think they- they- they're overrepresented on social media? Of course not. Um, it's like-
- CWChris Williamson
No.
- DCDaniel Cox
... the worst, uh, examples of- of all these different categories of offenses.
- CWChris Williamson
The most egregious stories are always the ones that catch fire, and the problem is-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... if you spend most of your time and learn about the world through the internet, you get a disproportionate view. You get a biased view toward crazy stories. You know, the guy leaves the house and comes back to find his wife in bed with the postman. Like, you know, that story catches fire because it's so, oh my god, like, can you believe that this thing happened? The same thing goes for... And it- it makes everybody model the behavior of others on the worst examples.
- DCDaniel Cox
Exactly. And there- and there are- there are, uh, folks out there, entrepreneurs, who actually are pushing this stuff too. So it's not just that the algorithm's finding this stuff and- and pushing it in front of you. It, there are people out there who, uh, you know, they- they built their, um, business or their- their brand on doing this stuff.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. There's also not enough female leadership in the eyes of women.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. Well, I think they're on- on both sides, and one of the things that I've really tried to do is sort of say, "Well, we- we actually need more- more conversations and opportunities for- for young people to engage with one- one another." So one of the things I've been, you know-... consistently concerned about is the decline in sociability among young people, so the, the pandemic was a, a real big hit. But even before then, w- we saw a really significant decline in just how often teenagers h- hung out with each other, um, and ma- and maybe, you know, drank alcohol or smoked or whatever, but just kinda did stuff, something, you know, out beyond parental supervision, uh, on their own, and, you know, behaved a lot like we would traditionally expect teenagers to behave, and maybe, uh, get into some trouble, uh, but also have opportunities to form bonds and engage with each other socially, uh, and learn from each other.
- 19:11 – 24:15
The Decline of Political Socialisation
- DCDaniel Cox
- CWChris Williamson
Why is political socialization not in effect here? Why aren't Republican parents giving birth to Republican young women?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. So this is something that we found in our data as well in a, in a 2023 study. So we looked at... It, it was focused on Gen Z, but we also wanted to look at their, their formative experiences, so what was the educational background of their parents, what was the religious background, um, what was the, the politics of their parents. And, and one of the things that we see that is consistent with a lot of political science research is that parental politics does influence the politics of children, uh, particularly when, uh, there's consistency within the household. So when, when both parents in two-parent households are Democrats or both are Republicans, they're, they fairly effectively can pass on political values to the next generation. There's lots of ca- caveats, and there's a rich socialization literature that, that deals with all this and, and talks about, um, how this, how this all, this all works. But one of the things that we saw was that while Republican parents tend to raise Republican sons, they're far less likely to raise Republican daughters. So only 44% of women raised by Republican parents still identify as an adult as a Republican, and that's pretty significant because every other configuration that we looked at, we saw the political socialization was, was proceeding fairly consistently, uh, and this was the kind of an a- anomalous case. And for me, you know, I speculate, uh, in the piece that I wrote about this, well, at least some of it has to do with, um, Donald Trump. I think some of it has to do with the rise in LGBTQ identity that a lot of young women who, who identify this way, and, and in our surveys it's one in three young women. So it's, we're not talking-
- CWChris Williamson
How accurate is that number? Because I've, I've seen that sort of bandied around. Have you stress test that at all?
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, you, you see it in, in... I think Gallup has numbers that are close to that. In our large national surveys, uh, uh, that we conduct with Ipsos, we see that number. So I think there's another, um, uh, polling organization called PRI who has that number. So, so we've seen it pretty consistently asked a couple different ways, and so I, I think we have some confidence that at least what the questions are a- are asking, "Do you identify as, you know, lesbian, gay, bisexual, queer, um, uh, whatever," uh, that, that at least, you know, we are seeing, you know, positive i- increased identity, uh, from. But, but I think, like, when it comes to, uh, what that means in terms of sexual behavior and sexual preferences, there, there's some separation there. And some folks, and I, I would count myself in this category, I think that at least there's, there's some politics involved in all this. So if you look at, for instance, that the number of people who identify as, as bisexual, that is the, the fastest increasing category, bisexual. Um, but if you look at the, the sexual preferences, uh, and behavior of people who identify as bisexual, y- it... there's, there's some distance there, there's some, uh, in, in, in terms of-
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, so people identify as bisexual but still date heterosexually mostly?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yes, much more, right? So the, so the, so the-
- CWChris Williamson
Wow.
- DCDaniel Cox
... there is some-
- CWChris Williamson
Where's that come from? Is that polling data as well?
- DCDaniel Cox
So yeah, this is, this is polling data, and ag- and I think there's some fluidity in all this. We're talking about young people, so again, things may, may change over time. I, I... Things take some while to-
- CWChris Williamson
Things may change week to week.
- DCDaniel Cox
... sort, sort out. Yeah. And I, and I think, think that's, right, that this generation is g- has been given the space to kinda explore and find out, and that's-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
... that's all good. Uh, but I think that it does mean that we need to, uh, exercise some caution when we're thinking about, "Whoa, okay, you know, there's one in three young women are LGB- LGBTQ, but what does that mean, and, and might that be subject to change at some point?"
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah.
- DCDaniel Cox
I think it might.
- CWChris Williamson
And a- a- an identification with the movement overall, but when, uh, the rubber meets the road, um, things don't change that much. Just to kind of round out what you were talking there, 44% of women raised by Republican parents identify as Republican, but 77% of women with Democrat parents identify as Democrats.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yep.
- CWChris Williamson
And you're right, that political socialization is a thing, but just your behavioral genetics gives a big predisposition here. You know, y- y- your political affiliation is at least in part genetically predisposed because you have certain values about the way that you see the world that are just, like, imbued into the, the mechanisms of your brain and so on and so forth, and then you layer on top the socialization piece. So to go 44% of women raised by Republican parents identify as Republican themselves, so it's more likely, uh, for you to be a Democrat female young girl with Republican parents than for you to follow the political socialization of your family plus the, uh, sort of genetic predisposition.
- DCDaniel Cox
Some of those folks are probably, like, politically independent too, so it's not just-
- CWChris Williamson
Right. Okay. It's not-
- DCDaniel Cox
... Republican, Democrat.
- CWChris Williamson
... half and half.
- DCDaniel Cox
But yeah, yeah, I mean, the point, the point still stands.
- 24:15 – 33:00
Political Factors Affecting Young Women
- CWChris Williamson
What role is abortion playing here?
- DCDaniel Cox
I think it's pretty huge. I, I, I know there's been, you know... I, I feel like there's a, a pendulum swinging in terms of, you know, uh, one week we say, "Abortion is gonna, you know, totally reconfigure the, the political landscape in the US with the overturn of Roe and, and the Dobbs decision," the next week, "Well, you know, we're not seeing it in this polling data, and, you know, we're not seeing this huge, uh, jump in or spike in, like, turnout among young women."And so I think, I feel like it's vacillated in terms of- of how critical we think this is, both sort of the- in the immediate political context and sort of longer term. I tend to think that it's- it's pretty crucial, uh, because it's- it's occurring, uh, uh, when it did for this- this generation that is already-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
... kind of predisposed to be very, very supportive.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, if you look a generation earlier among millennials, actually they tended to be surprisingly conservative on abortion and I don't think political scientists ever really sussed out why that was, 'cause at the time, the millennial generation, you know, so you look back and, you know, the mid-2000s forward and- and that generation was the most educated at that time, the least religious, um, there- there was a number of- of policy, uh, uh, positions they were pretty liberal on like gay marriage. And so y- you would think that this, uh, the abortion issue, they would also be- tend to be pretty pro-choice, but they w- were not. Um, but that's not true for Generation Z, the g- the generation that's following millennials. And for that generation, they're incredibly liberal on abortion. Uh, so- so you combine, uh, a- a Supreme Court ruling that was not popular among that generation and, uh, an issue that's incredibly salient for young women and typically always is, uh, and an issue that they tend to care a lot about, and then I think, like, that- that to me suggests that moving ahead, you know, it's gonna be a pretty significant factor in orienting their politics and- and motivating them.
- CWChris Williamson
You just mentioned higher education. It seems to be a trend that people who are more highly agitate- uh, educated end up being more liberal. Is the increasing female participation in higher education contributing to this too?
- DCDaniel Cox
I think so. Uh, I- I am not one of those folks who- who believes that, you know, m- higher ed is- has a huge impact, uh, on the political trajectory of young people. I think there's a lot of self-selection that goes into people who go to college. Uh, I think there's a lot of differences across different k- types of campuses, if you're going to a school, you know, in the South versus the Northeast or the West. I mean, there's a l- there's a lot of factors. The other thing I thought, I- I always kind of chuckle at, uh, is when people sort of saying, "Oh, you know, p- professors are turning people, uh, into Marxists and atheists," and the professors that I know said, "I- we can't even get, uh, these kids to read a damn syllabus."
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
And so, like, they- they think- they think that they have, you know, all this power over the- the politics of their students. What I think what's going on there is- is probably that, uh, for- on a lot of these campuses that the peer environment is exercising-
- CWChris Williamson
Yes. Yes.
- DCDaniel Cox
... pretty significant influence, and so your- your peers' politics, and then also the- the longer trajectory in terms of where you end up, so if you go to college you're more likely to end up in a city, um, possibly a coastal city that... and then, uh, among, you know, work in places with lots of other college-educated folks. And because of education polarization, we're seeing that, you know, you're- you're more likely to be around people who share your, you know, centrist to left-leaning political views.
- CWChris Williamson
That's a really good point. I want to just sit in that for another moment because there is a- a- a big demonization about the structure of the universities overall. It's e- th- th- they're the ones that are woking the students and the- all of the rest of it. But when you consider that... I mean, (laughs) I think back to my university education. I did five years, two degrees, and I spent like 2% of my day in lectures.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
And most of the time that I was in lectures, I was talking to my friends in any case, and all the rest of the time it was just the melting pot of the student community.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
So really when you're pointing the finger, I think that a lot of it should be what- what happens when you get lots of young people with social media and trends in a cosmopolitan city that's probably coastal, at least maybe- maybe coastal, but big cosmopolitan city, what do they talk about and how do they... h- how does the discourse self-reinforce? How can it sort of run away with itself? That's- that's a fantastic point. That's like a really, really interesting point I hadn't thought of.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, and then stuff, uh, there's a reinforcing effect, right, too, with our polarized media environment in the United States. Like, so you- you don't even have to leave your bubble, uh, and so if you have, you know, your best friends and your immediate, uh, social group is all left- left-leaning folks, they're citing opinion writers that are left-leaning, uh, and, you know, MSNBC anchors, and so like you- you can live quite happily in this bubble, um, both in your immediate, uh, environment and then your inter- larger information environment too.
- CWChris Williamson
I wonder how conflicting this is for young women. I wonder if, uh, we know how, um, the hypersensitivity that young women have to the- the trends of the social group around them, uh, very, very tuned up. I don't imagine this is particularly enjoyable for young women to... you know, maybe they've got one opinion that sits outside. Maybe they're slightly different on the First Amendment or maybe they're not too- too sure on immigration or maybe they're not too sure on whatever... you know, anything else. I- I- I feel- I feel bad for them. I feel bad for the fact that there is a- a- a huge sort of wave that's moving through and I think anybody who... th- the purity spiral is very sort of pure and anyone who doesn't adhere, um, it's- it's- it's gonna feel uncomfortable. There'll be discordance. I imagine this probably doesn't make them psychologically feel all that sort of, uh, safe or robust or, um, able to be open and honest and truly sort of speak their opinions.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. Well, I think too, right, like w- we know in- in political science that, um, having... being surrounded by peop- people who share your political views is actually not great, um, from a sort of larger political system perspective because those folks tend to have more extreme attitudes, right? That- that being constantly having, uh, your views affirmed by those around you, uh...It's easier to demonize. It's e- easier to engage in kind of a tribal politics. So that's, th-
- CWChris Williamson
You never get any counterpoints that are said in good faith.
- DCDaniel Cox
Right. An- and I think the other thing too is, like, I, I don't think we properly appreciate that s- so much of this stuff is an evolution, right? We, we kind of learn. We try out ideas. We try out language. And I think we oughta give space for that. So I think, like, one of the things, like, I, I'm not a huge believer in the, I, in the cancel culture conversation. I think that, you know, in certain instances, yes, you know, we have been too restrictive. Certain institutions have played roles that I think are count- counterproductive in terms of having an honest, open debate. Um, I think some of it's overblown. But I think there, there is one way that I think, like, the, the entire, uh, way we engage in political discourse in this country, uh, is problematic. And that is, like, we think that, that nothing will ever change and that people don't change in terms of their-
- CWChris Williamson
Hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
... views on, on various issues. And of course, that's not true. And one of the quickest ways for you to change your opinion is, uh, I drop you in a different political context, uh, and you'll change your views pretty quickly, or at least you, you will reflect on what you believe-
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, these people are-
- DCDaniel Cox
... more deeply and more seriously.
- CWChris Williamson
... the enemy. They're not necessarily demonized.
- DCDaniel Cox
Right. Uh, a- and, and I think that's one of the problems when you get to, to the, the political influence of dating and relationships is you sort of say, "Well, I'm only gonna date, um, you know, a Trump supporter," or, "I would never date a Trump supporter." Uh, I, I think, like, one of the, the problems with social media and dating apps is it allows you to more effectively filter out things that you think you might not like. But we are pretty terrible judges on the things that we actually care about in, in many respects. I tell this to my, to my son when he's, he's, you know, turning his, his nose up at food, uh, or dinner. It's like, "You've never tried this, so you have no idea." Uh, and so, uh, like, the experiment and experience are actually a part of growing up. And I, I think to the extent that politics is a part of that, we oughta give people space. We oughta give them, uh, you know, some empathy and understanding when they're working through things. And I think we're just so quick to judge and bash, and it's, it's really unfortunate.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah.
- 33:00 – 36:34
Have Men Changed Their Political Leanings?
- CWChris Williamson
Can you try and explain? So we've spoken about, uh, young women. I wanna talk about young men.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
But how much, how much is it young women moving to the left, and how much is it young men moving to the right? Is it equal amounts from wherever the s- set point is, or is it more left and men are a little bit more right? H- how would you categorize that?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, so this is the hard part about this is it's not really clear what's going on in men. There's sort of different stories and narratives emerging from different polls. So the same Gallup survey that I, I quoted earlier with women becoming more liberal by about 12 to 14 points over the last, you know, seven, eight years, the men seem pretty flat in that, in terms of their ideological disposition. Uh, a plurality are moderate, uh, and yes, I think similar numbers are liberal and conservative. There's some sense that they are becoming a little bit more Republican, uh, or more just predisposed to, to support Republican candidates. There's a, there's a-
- CWChris Williamson
Is that... Sorry. Is that, is that different to being conservative?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. Uh, so political ideology and, and partisan affiliation are, are different. Uh, you know, the, most of the way that survey, uh, uh, research focuses on this and, and asks about this is that there's a Democrat, Republican, and Independent is your political affiliation, and there's, for ideology, there's conservative, moderate, liberal. They, uh, are correlated. So if you're a liberal, you're likely to be a Democrat. Um, if you're a conservative, you're likely to be a Republican. But one of the challenges is that for this younger generation, they tend to have, uh, increasingly negative views of both parties. So even people who are-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
... quite liberal say, they say, "I don't like Biden. I don't like the Democrats."
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, and this is actually particularly true of young men. I think it's, like, close to four in ten, uh, v- view both political parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, uh, unfavorably. And so you have this weird thing. Like, there, there's more people identifying as Independent even as the country is moving a little bit t- more to the left. So we're m- becoming more independent and slightly more liberal. Uh, and so it's complicated, uh-
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, right.
- DCDaniel Cox
... when we try to, to make sense of what's going on. And I think too often we correlate those things, and it- it's actually there's some, there's some daylight between them that we need to appreciate.
- CWChris Williamson
That was one of the most interesting things that I learned in your article, which was young men are far less likely than women to say that any issue is personally important to them. It seems like if there was a checked out of politics, uh, uh, like, dimension to this, that that would be the real skew for men.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. And I, I think for a lot of young men, like, I think this is kind of an orientation that has happened because of, of how rapidly, uh, some of the social norms and culture has changed. And there's a real sense of dislocation, like, "Where do I fit? What... I'm, I'm told to be an ally, but how do I be an ally? Uh, can I advocate for myself, uh, even or, or the things that I care about?" And so you see this, this, uh, you know, in, in a large number of young men kind of this, this political disaffection of I just, like, "I'm, I'm kinda tuned out. I'm, I'm done with it." Uh, and I, and I think one of the things we're seeing is that the Republican Party has actually probably done a little bit better job of reaching out and saying that they are concerned about the issues that young men are facing, whereas liberals, uh, and Democrats a little bit less so. And so you've, you've... We're perhaps seeing a, a little bit of polarization around just the way the par- the parties are, are engaging on issues around gender.
- CWChris Williamson
Right. Yeah, that makes sense. What about, um,
- 36:34 – 45:19
Male Support of Feminism & MeToo
- CWChris Williamson
men's opinion on feminism and, and MeToo and stuff like that? Uh, i- is this, uh, in part, could this be a reaction to them feeling like those have gone too far?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. And I, I think you, you see this in the polling data. So whether it's the Pew R- Research Center showing a 20 point gap in support of the MeToo movement between young men and young women. Uh, young men are kinda divided, and young women, women are overwhelmingly supportive of MeToo. And then in our data, we s- we asked a question about whether people identify as a feminist. Uh, young women largely likely to identify as feminist, but it's only like 40% of young men.So, you, you do have a pretty significant gender gap. And on the question of feminism actually, the gender gap is the largest among Gen Z, uh, than any other generation. So, there's more disagreement about feminist identity and what feminism is, uh, than you see among older generations.
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, yeah. Yeah. A 2022 survey by the Southern Poverty Law Center found that 46% of Democrat men under 50 agreed that feminism has done more harm than good, and even more Republican men agreed. So, you know, it's not like Democrat men and Republican men are just one bundle of, uh, ideology. Like, people have different-
- DCDaniel Cox
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
... wing- wings within that. But, you know, nearly 50% of Democrat men under 50 saying that they think that feminism's gone too far, I think... Yeah, I- I- I can see why if men do feel dislocated and displaced and uncertain about their position, and then they don't feel like they're being given the, uh, sympathy or the support that perhaps-
- DCDaniel Cox
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
... they would, th- they're gonna start pointing the finger around. And- and-
- DCDaniel Cox
And then as, you know, we- we've seen, you know, various scholars have started looking into this, uh, they- there's in many ways young- young men are struggling, uh, e- economically, in- in education, and they have, you know, uh, particular needs that are not being met. They have, uh, problems that- that people aren't advocating for, solutions. And so I think, like, that- that plays into all this, and I think we- we're really, really bad at- at trying to hold these two different ideas in our hands at the same time. That there's been progress, uh, in terms of gender equality, but there's still, you know, plenty of places where women face structural disadvantages. Um, and then there's increasingly problems that young men are facing that are unique to young men, that societally we would be, um, you know, would be in our interest to try to address. And both those things can be true, right?
- CWChris Williamson
Yes. Yes.
- DCDaniel Cox
Both those things can be true.
- CWChris Williamson
Yes. Uh, an oft-cited statistic that conveys the enduring absurdity of the gender gap is that until very recently, there were more CEOs named John than CEOs who were women. Across most industries, from politics to academia, men in American society still control more resources, earn higher wages, and enjoy more prestige. But few young men have any experience in the boardroom, and in the classroom, it's their female peers who are crushing it. And, um, Christine Ember wrote this phenomenal article last year, uh, where she said, um, young men feel like their problems are being dismissed out of hand as whining from a patriarchy that they no longer feel a part of. And it's this sort of use of outlier male success, I think a lot of the time, that kind of legitimates some of the, "Wh- wh- what are you crying about? Look at th- look at the number of CEOs." And it's like, yeah, but look at the number of men at the lower end of the distribution as well. Like, uh, they- they don't feel like they've got the same kind of sympathy. And again, like, what does this lead to? It just leads to this sort of finger-pointing, this- this, uh, tribal purity spiral. And the thing that came to mind when reading this part of your research was that it's like a zero sum view-
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm.
- CWChris Williamson
... of gender equality on both sides.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. Which is, uh, increasingly where we're, we're headed, right? That- that, uh, on either side, if you- if you help women, you're- you're hurting men. If you're helping men, you're not paying attention to the enduring challenges-
- CWChris Williamson
Dude, I did- I- I- I did an episode... I must have done, I don't know, 40 episodes that are something along the lines of what's happening to young men, how a young man's struggling, how- uh, male mental health, male loneliness, blah, blah, blah. I did one episode, uh, a couple of weeks ago. I've done many episodes about women, but I did one in particular, uh, that was the first one in a little while with Freya India, this great writer, Jonathan Haidt's a massive fan of hers.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, I know her.
- CWChris Williamson
She's a phen- phenomenal, phenomenal writer. I did an episode-
- DCDaniel Cox
Know of her, I don't know her personally.
- CWChris Williamson
I- I- I did an episode with her, and it was, um, like, why are Gen Z women struggling so much? And immediately, so many of the comments were to do with like, uh, "Oh, this is pandering. This is like feminism's gone too far. Uh, you know, it's men that are struggling." I'm like, "Dude, like, th- there is a library of..." And what it made me think was like, i- it's really easy to point the finger and say, "You know, look at, uh, h- h- how many benefits women are getting, and they're the ones that are doing well in education and employment, and the men are the guys that are being held behind, and no one really cares." It's like, yeah, and then as soon as you say, "Also women are struggling, also there's a lot of problems that they're facing, (coughs) especially when it comes to mental health," like Jesus Christ. And again, zero sum view of empathy. Like, we can't have... If we give empathy to someone that isn't me or my tribe, then it- it's taking it away, and it's like the... All that that can lead to is dissatisfaction, uh, uh, and- and- and people not being able to understand each other. Like, it's just going to make the situation worse.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, and I- I think it's really interesting that you use the word tribal when- when we're talking about men and women, 'cause I- I feel like we talk about tribal politics, we talk about race and religion, we talk about class, we talk about Republicans and Democrats, but typically we don't talk about a- as much men and women inhabiting their, you know, oppositional tribes, but I think that's exactly what's happening. Uh, kind of abetted by social media and the lack of socialization, and I think like that's gonna be a- a pretty profound civilization- civilizational problem.
- CWChris Williamson
Yes. How could you be wrong about this data? In what ways might you be wrong?
- DCDaniel Cox
A million ways. Uh, there, I mean, i- in any- any work that we do, one of the things we try, and one of the first things whenever I see some kind of, uh, interesting or, uh, you know, seemingly anomalous finding is like, h- where is this corroborated and how can we see where- where this stacks up compared to what we know? And so looking at a lot of different trusted datasets, conducting high quality, reliable research ourselves is- is a priority for us and being transparent. So, on our website, the Survey Center on American Life, you can download all our data, uh, and one of the great things about that is it keeps you really honest if you think that people are gonna be poking around your stuff.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, and so I- I think that is- is incredibly important, um, sort of institutionally. Uh, but when it- when it comes to......to where things might we- end up, I think there's... You know, I'm writing a book on this topic, but I think, the divide that I'm looking at, which is not just po- political but relational, I think we... Th- this is solvable. So the, the trajectory that I, I currently am forecasting, that I'm seeing in this data may not wind up as bad as I may talk about it, you know-
- CWChris Williamson
It may sort of come back into land in a bit more of a-
- DCDaniel Cox
In 2024, right. You know, we, we are seeing divisions over marriage, uh, with young women saying that, you know, marriage benefits men more than women. Um, so we're seeing declining interest in, in parenthood, uh, uh, plummeting rates of, uh, civic participation. And, and so all these things are kind of pointing in a, in a negative direction, could, could change, uh, pretty significantly. One of the ways in which I was actually, uh, somewhat, uh, feeling rather positive about the pandemic, one, one of the only ways, and, and optimistic, is that I thought that it would, uh, in this generation an, and young... and among people generally, uh, kind of develop an appreciation for the importance of, of social ability, right? Just the, the importance of hanging out and being with each other in, in community, whether it's r- a religious community, whether it's, you know, being part of membership organizations, whether it's, you know, just going to work out with friends or, or play board games. But that, when that was taken away, uh, from us, uh, I think a lot of people suffered in a lot of different ways. And, you know, my hope would be that this, this generation, particularly the, the teenagers and young people who really suffered through it, uh, we know those, those folks suffered, ten- tend to suffer more than others, would develop an understanding of, "We n- really need to prioritize this. We, we need to find spaces where we can spend time with each other." I, I think the verdict is still out on that one. I'm hoping that that's, that's what will happen, but, um, I'm not 100% positive that, that it will.
- CWChris Williamson
Rose Horowitz
- 45:19 – 56:44
Has Voting Behaviour Actually Changed?
- CWChris Williamson
wrote an article titled, "Are Gen Z Men and Women Really Drifting Apart? The much theorized political rift has yet to show up in actual voting behavior." What's your thoughts on that?
- DCDaniel Cox
Well, she's wrong on that. Um...
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
I talked to... I talked to Rose, uh, for that article, and, and she's not the only one. So w- what's happened is there, the number of political scientists who've, who've come out and sort of said, "Well, in these academic data sets, the, the General Social Survey, the, uh, American National Election Study, the, uh, the Congressional Election Study, like, we, we don't see this stuff replicated." Um, but point of fact, the only data set where you really don't see it that you have a large enough sample is the c- this, this CES. And in the rest of them, in the Pew Research, uh, trend data you see it, in Gallup you see it. Um, there's, um, Monitoring the Future data that, uh, um, folks have looked at, at... and you see it in there. You even see it in, in incoming freshmen at UCLA, it does a ongoing study and, and looks at the politics of, of incoming freshmen, and you see a growing gender divide there. So there's, there's a lot of corroboration in terms of, of the data. And then you see it in exit poll data, right? That there's, there's a, I think like a 12-point gap in the voting behavior of young women and young men, um, in exit polls, and you see it in, in voter file data as well. So, uh, I think it's p... it's, it's... we should proceed cautiously, and I think that... W- I think what some of the political scientists object to, which I think is, is absolutely valid is to say, "Well, what do people mean when they're identifying as liberal?" Uh, does that mean that they're liberal and supportive of, you know, the progressive position on all these different issues from gun control, to climate change, to, um, abortion? 'Cause point of fact, like young men today are significantly to the left of older men on a lot of those questions, particularly when it comes to, to race 'cause the, the, the, um, generation is, is much more racially diverse, right? So you do see them to the left, but, but relative to where young women are, um, I think there's still a lot of evidence that suggests that, um, they're, they're, they're in a little bit different place. The other thing too is it's not just politics. Um, you look at, uh, views of, like, pornography, um, there's a really significant difference of where young men and young women are. Young women and men-
- CWChris Williamson
What did they, what did they say there?
- DCDaniel Cox
So we, we asked this question about whether, um, there should be more restrictions placed on internet pornography. There's like a 20-point gap, uh, in the view of young men and young women. Young women want it much more restricted, young men don't, not shockingly-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
... I think. So there's, there's a lot of those kind of cultural questions where you see these divides show up as well. And then, like, concern about climate change, concern about gun control, young women, again, uh, show much, much higher.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. Gallup just did their own analysis as well, right? I think I saw you tweet this.
- DCDaniel Cox
It, it was the same data, but they just published it finally. So, like, I, I published it in 2022. Uh, then I, I did this op-ed, uh, earlier this year based on the Substack article. Uh, and then Gallup a couple weeks later published their... It's the same data though.
- CWChris Williamson
Right, right, I understand. Yeah. Uh, it's... Uh, and just to kind of round out the stress testing of your data here, how, how... Y- you said around about 2014 was when this really began to kick in?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, 2014, 2015, depending on what data you're looking at.
- CWChris Williamson
Okay, so we're now at, you know, a decade, approaching a decade where this has been sort of trending. So this isn't the same kind of flash in the pan. Uh, for instance, uh, for a while, quite a while, I was citing this stat, um, the number of men between 18 and 30 that report h- not having sex in the last year has tripled from 2008 to 2018, from 8% to 28%. And I was, like, trotting this stat out, that was GSS data. Uh, then I didn't realize that new GSS data had come out twice. Uh, it'd come out once, and then the second one was what m- made me realize that the first one had come out, uh, and that trend had reversed. And I was like, "Right, okay," like that. And if you actually look at... it was such a sharp increase over sh- such a short space of time that now, plotted across enough time, it actually just looks like...Yeah, what happened here, maybe it was something to do with the way that this data-
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... was captured, maybe it was something about 2018, I don't know. Uh, but that seems to have come back down now. And actually, uh, women switched over with men, I think 2019, 2020, women did perhaps, uh, hyper vigilance around sort of like pathogen, disgust response type thing, um, around about the pandemic, that could have been a- a part of it. But, um, it seems like the trend that you are talking about here is more robust, uh, longitudinally.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. And- and I think if you're- i- i- it's not just, um, in- in response to I think specific events, right? C- whe- when we look at, you know, and- and- and when pollsters look at, you know, what kind of impact does a particular, even an- an important national event, um, so, you know, the- some of the protests, uh, over, uh, uh, police shootings of African American men, right, and we sort of say, "Okay, how does this change attitudes, uh, towards police and policing?" You- you did see a- a significant impact, uh, of that, but then it dissipated, uh, pretty quickly. And so I think some of that is like, that almost always happens, right? You- you, you know, for events to have really profound changes in our- our political trajectory, they, you know, they have to be, you know, of a magnitude that, uh, we don't typically see. Uh, but what we're seeing among, I think, young women is- is not just a reaction to the election of Donald Trump, to the Dobbs decision, or to Me Too, I think it's partly demographic. So you look at their, um, edu- educational attainment, uh, i- significantly more educated than men. If we're seeing education polarization, we would expect that to show up in their politics.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm.
- DCDaniel Cox
Rise of LGBTQ identity, again, that's increased over the last, you know, six, seven, eight years dramatically, and that group, LGDPQ peop- L- LGBQ people, are much more, uh, liberal than people who identify as straight or heterosexual. So, like, there are some demographic reasons to expect that, you know, we would see this- this growing division in- in- in politics.
- CWChris Williamson
What's happening with race?
- DCDaniel Cox
So race is really, uh, challenging to- to get at, uh, uh, in this- this cohort, because simply in a lot of the- the survey data we have, we don't have large enough samples to break out. So, you know, i- in terms of your average survey of 1,000 people, you have, uh, basically maybe, you know, 120 people who d- who are Black or African American, and so you can't do a lot in terms of the analysis. Now some of the data we have is- is much larger, but still you're- you're pretty limited in wh- in what you can do. But a lot of the- the divisions we're seeing cuts across racial categories, so we see between, you know, Black men and Black women pretty significantly, uh, different. In fact, I just published a piece that looked at the way there's been a- a really significant drop-off in terms of Democratic identity among Black men, but not Black women. Uh, and this is, again, based on- on some of that Gallup data. Uh, so I- I think that- that makes sense in terms of, well, okay, look at the- the rates of religious participation among, uh, Black Americans. That has historically tied them to the Democratic Party, so m- more religious, uh, Black Americans tended to be more Democratic. So as we've seen, we're seeing, um, Black men drop out of church at much higher rates than Black women. You know, we- we would- we might expect that there- this to have an impact on their, um, downstream affiliation.
- CWChris Williamson
What does this mean for the 2024 election cycle?
- DCDaniel Cox
That's probably the hardest thing to predict, because I think despite the fact that we've seen this divergence, I think we're gonna see, you know, some significant amount of support for young people. One of the challenges, uh, is that, I don't know if you've been tracking polls when it comes to the youth vote this year, but they've been all over the place, like there- there's been some reliable polls that say, you know, Trump is up with young people, which would be- would be an absolute- absolutely unprecedented shift, you know, of like bas- basically 20 points to what- what happened in- in 2020. So I think we're gonna see significant support for Biden among young people overall. I think it's gonna be significantly higher among young women. Uh, I think that- that Biden campaign, they are already, but I think they're going to continue to make abortion, uh, a really significant part of their campaign outreach to- to young women. Uh, I don't know what they're gonna do for young men. Uh, one of the things that I thought was pretty interesting, and I don't- I don't know if you've ever had reason to- to go over to the Democ- uh, uh, Democrats, um, webpage to sort of check it out. Well, I was there recently just to look at their- the groups that they, um, were advocating for, right? So these are the- they have like a- these are the groups that Democrats are fighting for. There's like 16 of them, I think. Um, women, Native Americans, uh, Hispanics, African Americans, uh, other ethnic groups, rural people, urban people, uh, women, down this- the- the one group that was missing, men. So it- it- it almost seems that it's such an oversight that it has to be intentional. Uh, I don't- I don't know-
- CWChris Williamson
Right.
- DCDaniel Cox
... and so I- I think to the extent that we see this- this divide occurring, I think that- that, um, the parties are gonna play a role in- in orienting and- and reaching out to folks, and to the extent that the Democratic Party does not, you know, actively appeal to men and particularly young men, I think they're- they're gonna continue to- to slide right.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. I wonder, one thing that you s- you said earlier on was how formative, uh, Me Too and then I- I guess the- the Me Too of 2023, which was, uh, the abortion, uh, ruling, I wonder whether that is formative to, uh, young people during their life, but that if there wasn't a similar incident in six years' time or whatever, that that's kind of baked into the system, and that this is almost like a- a quite prolonged, but, uh, a response...... to those kind of situations and whether or not, um, without continuing to sustain that with more and more, uh, what is perceived as an egregious transgression of somebody's, uh, freedom or, or, or, or, uh, like a, a important cultural moment, I wonder whether... I wonder how much of what we're seeing is still the blast radius of, of some big events, and I wonder how much, um, uh, is more, um, sort of deep-rooted and deep-seated. You know what I mean?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. And, uh, I've kind of struggled with this myself, and I think I've evolved in, in the way I think about it. Like, I, I think I... At, at one point, I thought, you know, Me Too was seismic and generational. Now I, I tend to think that, that it just has a pretty significant blast radius, as you put it. And so we'll see it among Gen Z, but we may not see it in Gen Alpha or, or, or even younger Gen Zers, uh, who just were not young enough to be paying attention to this stuff. So there might be that, the cohort of, like, you know, a six or seven-year, eight-year span of, of young women who came of age during that period who said, like, it was really important, and then not for, not for folks coming after.
- 56:44 – 1:03:46
How This Divide Impacts the Dating World
- DCDaniel Cox
- CWChris Williamson
What are the implications of this gender divide for the world of dating?
- DCDaniel Cox
It's hard to, to... I mean, in, in one way, so if we were talking about politics, um, I, I think it's a little bit overstated. Uh, you know, the Washington Post came out with an article sort of saying the, the political divide and the, the salience of, of, um, politics and dating could have significant repercussions, um, because there are more, there are many more conservative men than, than, um, uh, liberal women. So, like, there, there's a, there's a, there's a dating mismatch there. Um, but I, I think, like, when you talk to people about dating, and we, we did a, like, 30 in-depth interviews among young people, it was a lot about, "I just want someone who, who treats me well, um, you know, who is respectful." Um, you know, like the kind of things that you would expect, uh, you know, people to say just in general about the kind of relationships, platonic or romantic, that they were after. And politics didn't come up that o- that often, even the issue of abortion, uh, which seems like there's, uh, of any issue that you, that could be like a deal breaker of which there's not a lot of common ground to be, to be found.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, a significant number of young women, um, even liberal young women sort of said like, "Well, it might make things difficult," but it was not a, an essential deal breaker for them.
- CWChris Williamson
Wow. I wonder-
- DCDaniel Cox
So, um-
- CWChris Williamson
How much, how much of that do you think is, um... As far as I'm aware, having a mismatch in values, and something like abortion is, is a, a pretty strong sort of fundamental, uh, value about the way that you see the world. It's probably indicative of a lot of other things. It's more of a keystone than your view on economic policy, I would imagine.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Like, it's more interpersonal. Um, how much of that do you think is people wanting to give what sounds like a balanced answer to pollsters, but when it comes to actually dating someone, it may be something that they can't get past?
- DCDaniel Cox
Right. And I, and I think any question, like we, we asked in that 2023 survey a list of, I think, like 20 items, like, would you be more or lessly or more or less likely to date someone who lived with their parents, uh, smoked cigarettes? Like, all, all these different types of lifestyle, um, behavioral, um, sort of social demographic background questions. And so it's, you're, you're asking people to make these judgments without a real person standing there. And, you know, people tend to, to think very differently when they're, you know, thinking in the abstract versus-
- CWChris Williamson
What's a, what, what's like, is there a name for that? It's like white coat syndrome, I guess, in medicine, but is there an equivalent, like observer effect? Is that... What, what would you call that?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, I don't, I don't know if there's a technical term for it in, in, in polling, but I, again, there's a challenge in trying to get people to, to, um, yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
Well, first off, tell the truth, but secondly, know the truth.
- DCDaniel Cox
Right.
- CWChris Williamson
Like, how well do we know ourselves?
- DCDaniel Cox
And, and what, what their actual priorities are in terms of the qualities they want in a partner. It's incredibly difficult. Uh, and so, but I think, like, one of the things that, that's happening in, in online dating is that you can, you can pre-sort all that stuff. Like, you, I can sort of say, "This is what I think I want," and lo and behold, the algorithm can, can spit out, you know, a whole bunch of different matches for me. And for women, they, they can still find matches regardless of what kind of restrictions they put on. Um, men, you know, have a, have a harder time, uh, at, in online dating.
- CWChris Williamson
So I'm trying to work out whether or not the world of dating has become more or less political, because what you've just said there makes it sound like it's, "Uh, well maybe, you know, it's just someone that, that cares about me and is a normal, balanced human." But then on other sides, you know, it's like 55% of young women would be less likely to date a Trump supporter. 39 say the same about the possibility of dating a Republican, and 76% of young women with a college degree say would b- they would be less inclined to date a Trump supporter. "I'd rather die alone than date a conservative man," said one woman.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. Well, and I think this, this is where the, the politics and the personal get kind of fused. Uh, uh, Trump has very, very effectively politicized all these things that weren't all that political. I, I remember people before the pandemic, they were g- you know, they were saying, "You know, what this country really needs is an external, uh, challenge that we can bring, bring us together, like 9/11, this horrific tragedy, um, and attack on, uh, American soil that, that-"
- CWChris Williamson
Common humanity
- NANarrator
reminded us of. (laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah, that we rallied around and even Democrats, you know, had, had, uh-
- CWChris Williamson
You mean like a global, a global pandemic that didn't help at all? (laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
Right. And, and, and of course, you know, that became immediately politicized, um, and Trump bears s- you know, some responsibility there, uh, but it certainly wasn't all him. And so I think, yeah, when it comes to Trump, I think one of the things that we heard, uh, we saw in the survey and, and heard from the people we interviewed was that it wasn't politics. Like, they didn't care about his, his, his economic plan. They didn't really... You know, that was not the deal breaker issue for them. It was his treatment of-... people, particularly women. Um, that, that, I think, leads them to b- be like, "Okay, well-"
- CWChris Williamson
You mean, like, his personal s-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... the, the way that he comes across, his demeanor?
- DCDaniel Cox
He, he engages incredibly personally, um, incredibly, uh, negatively in, in people who he thinks have wronged him. The language that he uses, he is, you know... Um, you know, uh, Adam Serwer at the Atlantic said that, that this famous article that, "The cruelty was the point," and it, he behaves absolutely cruelly-
- CWChris Williamson
Mm-hmm.
- DCDaniel Cox
... um, to, y- you know, many people. Uh, and I think, you know, for, for folks who are saying, "Wow, like, uh, if someone really, not just, like, will vote for him, but, like, really adores this guy," and there's lots of Americans who do, um, "What does that say about how they might treat me or, or, like, what I mean to them as a woman," or, like, you know, those kinds of things. And that, that, we heard that a lot. We heard that a lot from the women who, who said that this would be a deal-breaker for them. So was not about policy. You could say it was kind of about politics because Trump was president and he's a Republican president. Um, but I think a, a lot of it was his, his personal behavior, his decorum. Um, you know, the, the stuff with the porn star, the, the infidelity. I mean, y- he just ticks so many boxes that I think a lot of women, they just, like, th- they found reprehensible.
- 1:03:46 – 1:10:21
Young Men Are Checking Out
- DCDaniel Cox
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs) Well, it's not just, uh, men and women not being able to find partners, though. Young men are just checking out of dating altogether quite a lot. Have you got any idea what's causing that?
- DCDaniel Cox
So (sighs) yeah. And, and it's not just dating. I mean, like, the, there's workforce stuff. I mean, it's, that's not, um, uh, an area of, of, um, primary focus for me. But, like, there's, there's men who are just checking out kind of altogether. Um, the, you know, video games, I think, are a, a common culprit there. Uh, I think when it comes to, uh, you know, their economic ambitions, I think it's just, it's tough to know, like, what the trajectory there is for them. Like, what, what do they th- see as the goal? I think, uh, previous generation, we kind of, you know, there was like, "Okay, you do this, this, this, and this." Um, but I think for young men today, I think there's just a lot of, um... They, they, they feel kind of adrift. And then-
- CWChris Williamson
Have you l- have you looked at, uh, Nicholas Eberstadt's work?
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. So he's at AEI and, um, has done some great work.
- CWChris Williamson
What? AEI?
- DCDaniel Cox
He's at the same organization that I'm, American Enterprise Institute.
- CWChris Williamson
Right. Okay.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, and so, yeah, yeah, so he's some, some great, some great work on that. And I, and I think it's, yeah, it's, it's absolutely right that, that when you, you sort of see your goal, sort of say, "Okay, I want a g- a good job, good career. Uh, I want marriage. I want, uh, you know, kids, a house, you know, with a mortgage and all that," it can be, you know, it can be hard to, to get that. But then at least with those goals in mind, you can sort of say, "Okay, I know what I have to do." And I feel like that, those kind of, um, kind of, uh, uh, north star, uh, places, like, orientation is, is kind of missing now from, from young men. In terms of, like, what they're doing instead, yeah, so video games. I actually, uh... I don't think a lot of people have thought about this yet in terms of the, the sort of, the way it's gonna impact relationships and dating. But, like, the AI girlfriend thing, uh, is something that I've, I've written about a bit and am concerned that, similar to how pornography gives you an absolutely warped view of, of sex and sexual relationships, I think AI girlfriends, um, and that kind of interactions is, is gonna give young men an absolutely warped idea of any kind of relationships, whether platonic, platonic or romantic.
- CWChris Williamson
Oh, bec- uh, there's, there's never any disagreement that needs to be dealt with. Everything is always...
- DCDaniel Cox
Affirmation, affirmation, affirmation. Um, you know, there to respond whenever, uh, wherever. Uh, and, and I think it's gonna be pretty popular because of that. Um, we're seeing this, this increase in, in loneliness. We, we did a survey back in 2021 and we identified this, this, the friendship recession, quote unquote, which was afflicting men significantly more, uh, harshly than women. And so a, a lot of this is, is, um, something that, that could conceivably, you know, be a pretty significant problem, because that's gonna be attractive for folks who are saying, "Well, I have a hard time, you know, meeting people. My friends aren't really giving me the support, um, that I want, and I can't find, uh, a partner, so, mm, yeah, I'm gonna turn back to screens." You know, VR headsets, video games, AI girlfriend.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah, yeah. So a couple of insights I've learned from evolutionary psychology friends. One of the problems that you're going to encounter with AI girlfriends is that there is no prestige associated with having one. It's the same reason that people don't advertise how many OnlyFans creators they subscribe to or whatever, because selection is so much of the prestige that comes with being in a relationship. Not only was I able to get this person, but they chose me. Whereas if you've got the price of a cheeseburger per month and you can buy a VR girlfriend, the degree of, uh, prestige and status that's associated with that, I don't think that should be undercounted. I think that that, that counts for an awful lot, uh, like, deep down for men. Now-You might say, "Well, the same is true of having a real friendship as opposed to one that's on the internet. And look at how many people are spending all of their time on screens and social media."
- DCDaniel Cox
Yep.
- CWChris Williamson
I don't, I don't disagree. But for the people... And I think about this a lot, I'm not a, a gamer. I was. Like, I, I played Xbox a good bit, but-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... it didn't ne- I wasn't, like, addicted. I, I didn't really use it all that much when I was younger, but I don't now. And I think I... I don't fully account for just how compelling and compulsive that is, especially for young guys.
- DCDaniel Cox
(laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Uh, I think the video games industry is worth more than the TV, movie, and music industries all combined together. Like, video games know more about human nature and human behavior and how to manipulate it and capture it than every other industry put together. So yeah, even for the people listening that are like, "Eh, video games, you know what? Fucking, like, playing a bit of COD on an evening, like blah, blah, blah."
- DCDaniel Cox
They've gotten good. I- my, my boys, uh, just got an Xbox. Their, their uncle got it, got it for them. So I have, uh... They're a five-year-old and a seven-year-old. And, uh-
- CWChris Williamson
Thanks to Uncle Ben.
- DCDaniel Cox
... games have gotten really... Like, I have not played video games for years. I used to, uh, but they've gotten real good. I was playing Gears of War 5, um, before my wife made me, uh, uninstall it because-
- CWChris Williamson
(laughs)
- DCDaniel Cox
... they didn't want the boys, uh, coming across it 'cause it's pretty violent.
- CWChris Williamson
Yep.
- DCDaniel Cox
But yeah, I mean, it's, it's immersive, it's engaging. You can sit there for hours and hours and hours. Um, and I think, like, yeah, there's, you know... Again, we can sort of laugh at like, "Oh, you know, video games and this should not be m- monopolizing people's time." But, um, it- I- it clearly is. The amount of time that young people are spending on these things is, young men, is, is, is growing and, and really significant.
- CWChris Williamson
What's happening with life satisfaction?
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, it's low among, uh, young adults, but it's always been kind of low, like comparatively, right? So we- we tend to be happier as we get older. We have more friends when we're younger. But in terms of the kind of in- insecurities that we have, the way we, we think about our lives, um, I think that, that the way that we feel, uh, in our, you know, teens and early 20s, uh, there's a lot of, of just life cycle stuff that, that, that we tend to grow out of. Um, now, we're in a different environment now with social media. So I think, you know, there's, there's been scholars and researchers looking at the soc- the, the, you know, anxiety-producing effects of, of social media and it's, it seems huge. I've not looked at it a ton myself. But it seems, like, really, really important. And, and it's focused on women, but I think men too are, are, um, suffer from this a little bit too.
- 1:10:21 – 1:14:04
Declining Trends in Life Satisfaction
- DCDaniel Cox
- CWChris Williamson
"For the third time in more than two decades, less than half of Americans say they are very satisfied with the way things are going in their personal lives. The 47% of US adults expressing high satisfaction with their lives has edged down three percentage points over the last year, and is only one point higher than the 2011 record low for the trend." Not good.
- DCDaniel Cox
So, yeah, and I think Gallup recently, uh, did this whole multi-country look at, at happiness and life satisfaction. And the really interesting thing to me was how huge the generation gap was. So at one point, there wasn't a huge difference between where older people were and younger people were. But now I think United States has one of the largest generation gaps in terms of happiness and life satisfaction of any country.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah. Yeah. But it's, you know, this slow life strategy that Jean Twenge's looked at, I know Jonathan Haidt's looked at it as well.
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
This extended adolescence as it's called, young people getting their driver's licenses later, moving out of the house later, getting their first job later, starting dating later. I wonder how much or how many of those things... Like, it's a risk aversion. It's like generalized risk aversion against-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... change and safety. Leaving the house. Scott Galloway got in trouble for basically saying that unless... If you're still living at home with your parents, unless you're asleep, you shouldn't be in the house. And, um, people were a bit-
- DCDaniel Cox
I, I, I, I second that as a parent of young boys. Like, "Get, get out of the house. Go play." (laughs)
- CWChris Williamson
Right, that might be a way for you to get a little bit of peace. But, um, yeah, I, I, I, I understand, personal motivations aside, that, uh-
- DCDaniel Cox
No, it, it's independence and agency, right? Like, that you, you, you learn. Like, I was just talking with a colleague today, like it's, "The Importance of Being Bored," right? To come up with your own games, be imaginative, find ways to, to figure things out yourself so that you're, you're not... I mean, I think this generation of parents and I, uh, you know, I count myself as part, part of this problem, um, were kind of overly engaged. I mean, the, the, the common terms with, like, helicopter parenting or, uh, snowplow parenting I think is absolutely right. That we're, we're doing too much for them and things that they should be doing themselves, uh, we're not readily letting them do. And so they're not learning agency and they're not learning independence.
- CWChris Williamson
I looked at this interesting thing about life satisfaction are highest amongst upper income, married, and religious adults. A few groups, uh, a few groups have majorities saying that they are very satisfied. This includes those with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more, married adults, those who attend religious services regularly, college graduates, Democrats, and those aged 55 or older. So you're, like, sort of threading the needle there-
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm-hmm.
- CWChris Williamson
... through... And I'm gonna guess a number of those may- I, I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if married adults have high household income, uh, if people who are earning a little bit more are more likely to be religious. You know, like all of these things will stack on top.
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah. No, I think that's right and, and, and we've done research on this too, the, the class divide in, in religious participation. So, at one point there wasn't a huge attendance difference i- im- between people who had a college degree and those without. So you go back 30, 40 years, pretty much the same, everyone was attending at relatively high rates. Then over the next 20, 25 years, a significant gap emerged with, um, the, the non-college folks attending at far less, less, uh, high rates than the folks who went to college. So-It's the, it's the college-educated folks are getting married, uh, you know, i- invested in, uh, the religious communities, engaged in community life. And that has a multiplicative effect, right? Like, you are getting support systems at a, a, across these different institutions. You are avai- availing yourself of information, uh, of all these important things in life that is, uh, is strongly correlated with happiness and contentment.
- CWChris Williamson
Yeah.
- 1:14:04 – 1:19:47
Should We Be Pessimistic About the Future?
- CWChris Williamson
How do you sort of come to conceptualize everything that we've gone through today? Sort of, what's your, what's your view of the, of the current state of things and the trajectory moving forward?
- DCDaniel Cox
So, uh, I, I'm a little bit of a, a resident pessimist. Like, I, I, you know, can't not look at this data and think, like, "Wow, um, you know, what is happening?" You know, 'cause we, we do a, uh, a lot of surveys on a lot of different topics, from, from dating to religious demography, um, to politics. We're doing a, a working class survey. And we haven't talked about this, but the, I think the, one of the, the really concerning things for me is trust, and rather its- its precipitous decline. So, if you look at young people today, on, on a variety of different measures, but you just ask them, like, "How much do you think people can be trusted?" They're far lower, like 30 points lower than, than older Americans. Um, whether they think people will take advantage of them, again, like there's, like, a 30 or 40-point divide. Most, uh, peop- young people say that they do. And I, I don't want to be constantly pointing the finger at social media, but again, I think it, it makes some sense adaptively, right? If I'm engaging with strangers a lot w- when people have access to, uh, my profile, they can, they can message me. Um, a lot of the times, I'm, I'm, you know, getting negative interactions online. Uh, of course I should be a little bit suspicious, right? Like, I, I'm not being socialized in my sort of geographic community where people know each other, where there's a lot of support. Uh, but I'm, I'm, I'm kind of in the Wild West where, you know, I don't know people's motivations, um, I don't know what they're gonna do. Uh, and so, it, it, it, I think it pays to kind of be cautious and think the worst of people.
- CWChris Williamson
Mm.
- DCDaniel Cox
Uh, and so I think that, to me, is a pretty significant difference in the way people are being raised today verse, um, uh, you know, a generation before social media.
- CWChris Williamson
That's that hyper-vigilance again, right? "I, I, I can't necessarily trust people. I don't know if they have-"
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... "best interests at heart." And the other thing, I, I can't remember who said it, but basically that the internet has made psychopaths out of all of us, that it permits you to do-
- DCDaniel Cox
Mm.
- CWChris Williamson
... things online that you would never do in person with-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yes.
- CWChris Williamson
... basically no repercussions.
- DCDaniel Cox
100%.
- CWChris Williamson
And if, if you don't think that this is true, log into any first-person shooter lobby and hear what people say to each other. Like, just the things that people say. There's no way-
- DCDaniel Cox
Yeah.
- CWChris Williamson
... that you would dare say that. And even face-to-face, let alone in a, a, a small village, you know, 100 years ago where you knew everybody and reputation would get around, and you're held accountable for your actions and things like that. So, what's the natural response? The natural response is this vigilance and certainty, "I'm gonna protect myself. I'm never actually going to be emotionally open or vulnerable or, or invest in anybody else, because they might move on quite quickly, and I've had all of these bad experiences."
Episode duration: 1:20:34
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