Vinod Khosla: College Degrees Are Becoming Useless | People by WTF | Episode 12

1. 0:00 – 1:10

   Intro

   1. NKNikhil Kamath0:00

      [upbeat music] You seem like a very certain person. You take the contrarian opinion in a very certain manner.

   2. VKVinod Khosla0:36

      Almost certainly, with no doubt, there isn't a job where AI won't be able to do eighty percent of eighty percent of all jobs. And that's what today's twenty or twenty-two-year-old has to take for granted.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath0:55

      [upbeat music]

2. 1:10 – 4:43

   Vinod’s Early Life & Tech Fascination

   1. NKNikhil Kamath1:10

      Hi, Vinod. Thank you for doing this. For our audience in India, which are largely entrepreneurs or going to be entrepreneurs, I don't want to introduce you. Maybe you can tell us a little bit about your life. Your story is very well known, so I don't have to rehash it for them. But maybe you tell us a bit about life, how you began, and where you are today.

   2. VKVinod Khosla1:34

      Well, I, you know, life, [chuckles] my life has been pretty simple. I haven't done too many things-

   3. NKNikhil Kamath1:40

      Mm.

   4. VKVinod Khosla1:40

      -too many different things. But I was always curious about technology, and the piece people don't understand is, or don't know, I would say, there's nothing to understand. Do you want me to stop when there's a sound overhead or keep going?

   5. NKNikhil Kamath2:04

      Is it okay?

   6. VKVinod Khosla2:05

      Keep going.

   7. NKNikhil Kamath2:05

      Yeah, it's okay.

   8. VKVinod Khosla2:07

      Okay. Uh-

   9. NKNikhil Kamath2:08

      Makes it more natural. [chuckles]

   10. VKVinod Khosla2:09

       Okay. Yeah, sometimes people do, and sometimes people don't.

   11. NKNikhil Kamath2:14

       Right. Do you do a lot of these interviews?

   12. VKVinod Khosla2:16

       I do a fair number. [chuckles] Yeah. Um, when I was sixteen, I'd go from Delhi Cantonment, where I lived-

   13. NKNikhil Kamath2:26

       Mm-hmm

   14. VKVinod Khosla2:27

       ... to Old Delhi to rent old magazines. That's how you got access to information. There was no place to go-

   15. NKNikhil Kamath2:34

       Mm-hmm

   16. VKVinod Khosla2:34

       -to get access to magazines or others, unless you could afford to buy them, and we couldn't, so. Uh, but I used to get old issues of technology magazines, uh, especially the Electronic Engineering Times, to see what was going on. And I read about Andy Grove as a Hungarian immigrant-

   17. NKNikhil Kamath2:58

       Mm-hmm

   18. VKVinod Khosla2:58

       ... coming and starting a company here, and that's what fascinated me and got me interested in, "Why can't I start a technology company?" I had very little interest and still have very little interest in business.

   19. NKNikhil Kamath3:13

       Mm-hmm.

   20. VKVinod Khosla3:13

       I do it because it needs to be done, but I mostly am interested in technology and the impact it can have. So I got enamored by this guy. Uh, and all I knew about Hungary was they had great stamps. So if you collected stamps, back then, you always wanted Hungarian stamps. [chuckles]

   21. NKNikhil Kamath3:34

       Mm-hmm.

   22. VKVinod Khosla3:34

       But, uh, I followed his story.

   23. NKNikhil Kamath3:38

       Why did you want Hungarian stamps?

   24. VKVinod Khosla3:40

       Oh, I used to collect stamps as a kid.

   25. NKNikhil Kamath3:42

       Mm-hmm.

   26. VKVinod Khosla3:42

       There wasn't, like, sixteen things to do.

   27. NKNikhil Kamath3:44

       Mm.

   28. VKVinod Khosla3:45

       There was no internet, there was no libraries you had access to, there was not a lot of magazines.

   29. NKNikhil Kamath3:50

       Mm-hmm.

   30. VKVinod Khosla3:51

       There wasn't much to read or get information f- uh, from. So you had hobbies like stamp collecting or coin collecting or... Uh, I, I couldn't afford vintage car collecting, which some people did, but I worked on cars like that. But, uh, so there wasn't a whole lot to do. Um, and I used to read these magazines by renting them, and usually when the magazine got old in the area, like in the US, they got shipped-
3. 4:43 – 6:17

   What Part of Vinod’s Education Shaped Him Most?

   1. NKNikhil Kamath4:43

      So you did engineering at IIT and then came to the US for your master's at Carnegie Mellon in Biomedical Engineering and then business in Stanford. Which part of this academic career formed you or shaped you today?

   2. VKVinod Khosla5:01

      You know, I would say every step was about a particular goal.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath5:10

      Mm-hmm.

   4. VKVinod Khosla5:11

      Engineering at IIT was because I was interested in technology, and electrical engineering seemed pretty damn interesting. There was nothing called computer science back then.

   5. NKNikhil Kamath5:22

      Mm-hmm.

   6. VKVinod Khosla5:22

      That was... I joined IIT in 1971. Um, so that was interesting, and then I got curious about biomedical engineering. Uh, there wasn't really such a discipline. We did some projects in India in biomedical engineering, but there was no biomedical engineering department anywhere in India. And I got involved with a professor there, Professor Guha, and we did some things between IIT Delhi and All India Institute of Medical Sciences. I was curious, and then I just said, "Uh, well, master's in, uh, biomedical engineering would be cool."... And so I came to the US to do my master's, but my real goal was to get to Silicon Valley and start a company.

   7. NKNikhil Kamath6:11

      Right.

   8. VKVinod Khosla6:11

      And the MBA was a necessity just to get to Silicon Valley.

   9. NKNikhil Kamath6:16

      Right.

4. 6:17 – 9:46

   Why Certainty is Overrated

   1. NKNikhil Kamath6:17

      So I have a agenda for today, Vinod.

   2. VKVinod Khosla6:19

      Mm-hmm.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath6:21

      As an investor, the big question I have today is, since everything is changing so quickly with technology changing, I want to figure out which industries, sectors, might be most relevant ten years from now, either to invest in or build a business in. The question is essentially, as a young entrepreneur in India, where do the tailwinds really lie, and where should I focus my efforts on over the next decade? So a lot of what I'm gonna talk to you about today will kinda like focus on that. And, uh, from all that I've watched in your interviews and from the few times I've spoken to you via that common, uh, pledge community we are part of, you seem like a very certain person. Uh, certainty has been an element of most interviews I've watched, say, ten years ago, five years ago, or even today. You take the contrarian opinion in a very certain manner. Uh, to me, I feel like certainty is not necessarily a good thing, but it's the innate human conditioning. Uh, do you see yourself like that, as somebody who believes in something and makes up his mind and sticks to it?

   4. VKVinod Khosla7:46

      Um, I would say no. I would say... Well, you know this. When you built your company-

   5. NKNikhil Kamath7:54

      Mm-hmm.

   6. VKVinod Khosla7:56

      -think about how much did you know about where you would end up?

   7. NKNikhil Kamath8:00

      Nothing.

   8. VKVinod Khosla8:01

      Nothing.

   9. NKNikhil Kamath8:02

      Mm-hmm.

   10. VKVinod Khosla8:02

       That's true most of the time.

   11. NKNikhil Kamath8:04

       Mm-hmm.

   12. VKVinod Khosla8:06

       Did you even know the space you were in was a valuable space to start a company in? You probably did have some hunch of that.

   13. NKNikhil Kamath8:14

       Mm-hmm.

   14. VKVinod Khosla8:14

       So I, I, I like to say my fundamental belief in life is people have personalities, and they choose to either reinforce that or go beyond that. And there's two ways. One is you don't wanna fail, which fundamentally means you don't wanna take risks, which fundamentally means you're not gonna do anything new, and that's perfectly reasonable thing to do, and people get comfort in that certainty. That certainty is of very little value to me. What I like is a shot at doing the impossible, and I like to say, skeptics never did the impossible. Think about it. If you're a skeptic, you're always finding reasons why something won't work. If you're starting your company-

   15. NKNikhil Kamath9:22

       Mm.

   16. VKVinod Khosla9:22

       -if you paid attention to all the things you didn't know or didn't know you didn't know, uh, you wouldn't start the company. And where would you be? You'd have a steady job in some corporation, and it's fine. It's a perfectly respectable thing to do, but you wouldn't be creating anything new.

5. 9:46 – 13:36

   Investor Mindsets: Skeptic vs Contrarian

   1. NKNikhil Kamath9:46

      Would you say a skeptic and a contrarian investor have a lot in common? A contrarian is skeptical about the incumbent norms of the day.

   2. VKVinod Khosla9:56

      Um, I would say no. Skeptics, to me, are always saying why things can't be done.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath10:04

      Mm-hmm.

   4. VKVinod Khosla10:06

      Uh, entrepreneurs, um, in- investor is a whole different thing. I don't really think of myself as an investor. Are always saying, "What if something was possible?"

   5. NKNikhil Kamath10:22

      Mm-hmm.

   6. VKVinod Khosla10:23

      And in the technology world, it's particularly important 'cause I'm never certain, but I know what technology makes possible quite well. I can make reasonable guesses at what the world could be, and then you work to make that world happen. If you happen to make it happen, it'll be successful, whether you're a entrepreneur or an investor. And I always think about my life that way. Like, if something's possible, I wanna make it happen.

   7. NKNikhil Kamath11:03

      Mm-hmm.

   8. VKVinod Khosla11:04

      You know, electric cars were always possible. You knew you could put a battery and a motor in a car instead of a gasoline engine or a diesel engine. Uh, but nobody in the automotive business was going to do it, and if they did, they made half-hearted, poor attempts. You know, General Motors spent billions of dollars trying to do a half-ass job at a electric vehicle, EV1, EV2. Toyota did the low-risk approach of adding a hybrid engine. Uh, you don't create the different world that way. You increment it, and there is a world of incremental innovation and l- lots to do there. But people who wanna be in the safe domain do that. Elon Musk created an electric vehicle, almost went bankrupt a few times in doing it, but he followed his belief there.... and then made the world happen. I don't believe if we'd have electric cars dominant today, be twenty-five percent of our car, all car sales in California today, um, if Elon hadn't made that world happen. So every expert in every large automotive company or every McKinsey study would say the opposite of what actually happened. And it's sort of this, if it's possible, you have to make it happen. It doesn't matter whether you're talking about cars or rockets or the internet. You know, the telco companies, AT&T and all those people, had such naive ideas about what the internet should be. Um, they told me in nineteen ninety-six when we started Juniper, they would never adapt TCP/IP.

   9. NKNikhil Kamath13:06

      Mm-hmm.

   10. VKVinod Khosla13:07

       And I do believe if Pradeep Sindhu and I hadn't started Juniper, there would be no TCP/IP in the public internet.

   11. NKNikhil Kamath13:18

       Mm-hmm.

   12. VKVinod Khosla13:19

       'Cause Cisco was not going to develop anything, and any of the traditional telco suppliers did the simple thing of listening to their customers, which is a good habit if you're trying to be incremental. A really bad thing if you're trying to be revolutionary.

6. 13:36 – 19:47

   Identity, Purpose & Persistence

   1. NKNikhil Kamath13:36

      For everybody who doesn't know you, Vinod, if I were to describe you in, like, sixty seconds, I would say a very precocious, academically gifted Indian boy who went to IIT Delhi, came into the US, picked two other friends and started Sun Microsystems, and then picked a great bet after the liquidity event of selling Sun or part of it, in picking TCP/IP over the ATM protocol of, of the time. And then ever since then, you're more the kind of investor who's betting on edge cases, who's probably taking a hundred bets, knowing ninety-five will fail, but the five will give you exponential returns. Is that a good way to describe you?

   2. VKVinod Khosla14:26

      I don't think so.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath14:27

      Okay.

   4. VKVinod Khosla14:27

      Uh, that's not how I think of myself.

   5. NKNikhil Kamath14:29

      Yeah?

   6. VKVinod Khosla14:30

      I think no matter what your environment you're in-

   7. NKNikhil Kamath14:33

      Mm-hmm.

   8. VKVinod Khosla14:34

      Now, what's key is I got sparked by reading a single article about Andy Grove starting Intel in Silicon Valley.

   9. NKNikhil Kamath14:42

      Mm-hmm.

   10. VKVinod Khosla14:42

       And that must have been nineteen seventy or somewhere around there.

   11. NKNikhil Kamath14:47

       Mm-hmm.

   12. VKVinod Khosla14:48

       I was fifteen, sixteen, something like that. Um, the, and then sort of not stopping there, right? Saying, "How do I make this happen?" I'll give you examples. When I was at a... When I started at IIT Delhi, there wasn't a single computer programming class at any IIT anywhere-

   13. NKNikhil Kamath15:12

       Right

   14. VKVinod Khosla15:13

       ... in India.

   15. NKNikhil Kamath15:15

       Mm-hmm.

   16. VKVinod Khosla15:16

       So what did I do? I said, "That'd be cool to do."

   17. NKNikhil Kamath15:19

       Mm.

   18. VKVinod Khosla15:19

       So we started a computer programming club, and started the first real class in programming-

   19. NKNikhil Kamath15:28

       Mm

   20. VKVinod Khosla15:28

       ... at any IIT, as a hobby club-

   21. NKNikhil Kamath15:31

       Mm-hmm

   22. VKVinod Khosla15:31

       ... in IIT Delhi. There was four of us, and we just, we sort of made that happen.

   23. NKNikhil Kamath15:37

       Mm-hmm.

   24. VKVinod Khosla15:38

       I was talking about biomedical engineering. What happened? I got curious about elect, uh, like, as an electrical engineer, the electrical phenomena in the human body. Um, the heart, the brain, the n- n- the, the nervous system. And so we started, literally started with three or four of us, the biomedical engineering program at IIT Delhi.

   25. NKNikhil Kamath16:07

       Right.

   26. VKVinod Khosla16:07

       It wasn't an official sanctioned thing.

   27. NKNikhil Kamath16:10

       Mm-hmm.

   28. VKVinod Khosla16:10

       And p- when you say to people at sixteen or seventeen, you can make programs, new programs happen at IIT Delhi as a student, or new programming happen, it's not what people imagine possible.

   29. NKNikhil Kamath16:26

       Mm.

   30. VKVinod Khosla16:26

       I... But I just sort of had this tendency to not accept the things as they were. So I think if, if I were to characterize myself, if I thought something should happen, uh, whether it's starting a company in Silicon Valley, or starting a biomedical engineering program, or the first-ever computer programming, uh, class in any IIT, you just sort of worked at making that happen and be clever about how to make it happen. Not say, you know, the usual thing people would say is, "They should start a computer programming class." But they is, who's they? Either you do it-
7. 19:47 – 27:15

   What Still Drives Vinod at 70?

   1. NKNikhil Kamath19:47

      That's a great way to describe it. If you can tell me today at seventy, Vinod, what is your passion? What are you looking forward to in life?

   2. VKVinod Khosla19:56

      Oh, I'm... I expect in the next twenty years-

   3. NKNikhil Kamath20:01

      Mm-hmm

   4. VKVinod Khosla20:01

      ... at age seventy, if I'm healthy, because that's one thing nobody controls.

   5. NKNikhil Kamath20:07

      Mm-hmm.

   6. VKVinod Khosla20:08

      Uh, I expect I will do more, affect more change in the world in the next fifteen, twenty years-

   7. NKNikhil Kamath20:18

      Mm-hmm

   8. VKVinod Khosla20:19

      ... than I've done in the last fifty years of my life. That's very simply the goal, and it'll be to make certain things happen that I'm passionate about. So-

   9. NKNikhil Kamath20:29

      And why is that the goal, to affect change in the world? Is it posterity?

   10. VKVinod Khosla20:34

       No. Uh, and, you know, I believe when you die, you die. [chuckles]

   11. NKNikhil Kamath20:39

       Yeah.

   12. VKVinod Khosla20:39

       And I'll be buried under some tree, and my ashes sprinkled somewhere or-

   13. NKNikhil Kamath20:44

       Logically, logically, that would mean that you have to improve the qualitative nature of life today versus worry about the change you create.

   14. VKVinod Khosla20:55

       Well, so, uh, I think the question to ask, and the question I say, is, let's said, say, twenty-five years from now, at age ninety-five... My father lived to age ninety-five-

   15. NKNikhil Kamath21:08

       Mm.

   16. VKVinod Khosla21:08

       -so that's a good metric.

   17. NKNikhil Kamath21:10

       Mm.

   18. VKVinod Khosla21:11

       If I'm lying on my deathbed, what do I wish I'd spent the last twenty-five years on? Almost certainly, it won't be, "I wish I made more money."

   19. NKNikhil Kamath21:20

       Mm.

   20. VKVinod Khosla21:21

       Almost certainly, it wouldn't be, "I wish I played more golf-

   21. NKNikhil Kamath21:25

       Mm

   22. VKVinod Khosla21:25

       ... or went sailing or spent more time at resorts." Uh, none of that, I think, will matter to me.

   23. NKNikhil Kamath21:32

       Yeah.

   24. VKVinod Khosla21:33

       So, so, or I owned another house, or-

   25. NKNikhil Kamath21:35

       Do you suspect it would be the change you brought in the world?

   26. VKVinod Khosla21:39

       I think it'll be how satisfied my brain is with what it was able to do, and I, how, how I utilized my brain.

   27. NKNikhil Kamath21:47

       I think a lot of people when asked the same question on their deathbed, they tend to say, they tend to say things like, "I wish I spent more time with my friends. I wish I loved more. I wish I was more myself and didn't have to put on a mask or a projection." And, uh-

   28. VKVinod Khosla22:07

       So that's really important. So by far, I still always prioritize family over work.

   29. NKNikhil Kamath22:14

       I know your family. I-

   30. VKVinod Khosla22:15

       Yep, you met them.
8. 27:15 – 30:20

   Why Cities Need Fewer Cars

   1. NKNikhil Kamath27:15

      your many successful pursuits as an entrepreneur, has the technology element of it or the ability to sell an idea element of it, what has been more valuable to you?

   2. VKVinod Khosla27:30

      I think I always first focus on what technology makes possible.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath27:35

      Mm-hmm.

   4. VKVinod Khosla27:36

      So one of my goals in my lifetime is to eliminate most cars in most cities.

   5. NKNikhil Kamath27:40

      Mm-hmm.

   6. VKVinod Khosla27:41

      So if we put a twenty-five-year metric on that-

   7. NKNikhil Kamath27:44

      Mm-hmm

   8. VKVinod Khosla27:45

      ... by twenty fifty, we should be able to eliminate that. Now, there isn't another person in the world who've told me that's reasonable.

   9. NKNikhil Kamath27:52

      Mm-hmm.

   10. VKVinod Khosla27:54

       I'm pretty sure it c- not only can be done, but it will be done.

   11. NKNikhil Kamath27:58

       Will it be directly proportional to the density of population in cities?

   12. VKVinod Khosla28:03

       No, I think most transit should be public transit.

   13. NKNikhil Kamath28:06

       So in a tier three, four, five town with a scarce population of, say... I'm making a case for urbanization turning around, de-urbanization almost. Say, instead of millions of people crowding around one city center, you have smaller cities, fewer people, far spread out. Does public transportation work from that lens?

   14. VKVinod Khosla28:30

       Yes.

   15. NKNikhil Kamath28:32

       Mm.

   16. VKVinod Khosla28:32

       For the following reason, and this is what I mean by these are conceived as hard engineering pro- uh, hard problems-

   17. NKNikhil Kamath28:40

       Mm-hmm

   18. VKVinod Khosla28:41

       ... but if you're clever, you can solve them. Um, in fact, y- you're exactly right, that's the model for India.

   19. NKNikhil Kamath28:49

       Mm-hmm.

   20. VKVinod Khosla28:50

       So in the year two thousand, I wrote a blog.

   21. NKNikhil Kamath28:53

       Mm-hmm.

   22. VKVinod Khosla28:54

       They weren't called blogs then. [chuckles]

   23. NKNikhil Kamath28:55

       Mm-hmm.

   24. VKVinod Khosla28:56

       Um, called "The Bicycle Commuting Economy for India."

   25. NKNikhil Kamath29:00

       Mm-hmm.

   26. VKVinod Khosla29:01

       And, uh, essentially, I speculated, instead of having everybody from the villages migrate to the major cities, and having huge, huge cities like we are starting to have, there should be a city like aggregation of people-

   27. NKNikhil Kamath29:23

       Mm

   28. VKVinod Khosla29:23

       ... so you get economies of scale-

   29. NKNikhil Kamath29:24

       Mm-hmm

   30. VKVinod Khosla29:25

       ... within a bicycle commute of the hometown or the home village of every person.
9. 30:20 – 32:19

   AI: Bad For Big Cities & Good For Small Towns?

   1. NKNikhil Kamath30:20

      you think AI is bad for big cities and good for smaller cities, the model you're explaining?

   2. VKVinod Khosla30:25

      ... I think AI is good either way.

   3. NKNikhil Kamath30:28

      Mm-hmm.

   4. VKVinod Khosla30:29

      Uh, and we can come back to it.

   5. NKNikhil Kamath30:31

      I, I've watched your interview of the utopian and dystopian scenarios, where you made a very utopian case for it.

   6. VKVinod Khosla30:36

      Yes, uh, I did. But, you know, it was around 2000 that I wrote this piece called The Bicycle Commute Economy. It might even be on our website still.

   7. NKNikhil Kamath30:47

      Mm-hmm.

   8. VKVinod Khosla30:48

      And it was specifically for how the India was discussing how to set up the telecommunications network.

   9. NKNikhil Kamath30:56

      Mm-hmm.

   10. VKVinod Khosla30:57

       Where to set up... You know, they ne- they were mostly thinking landlines then, not cell phones.

   11. NKNikhil Kamath31:04

       Mm-hmm.

   12. VKVinod Khosla31:06

       And, um, but my point is, that is a good aggregation.

   13. NKNikhil Kamath31:09

       Mm-hmm.

   14. VKVinod Khosla31:10

       And, but policy will determine that-

   15. NKNikhil Kamath31:13

       Mm-hmm

   16. VKVinod Khosla31:14

       ... not technology.

   17. NKNikhil Kamath31:16

       Mm-hmm.

   18. VKVinod Khosla31:18

       And then technology will serve that pa- pa- scenario. I did believe, with the right telecommunications infrastructure and good communications, you could enable that model to work without needing to move to a big city, because a lot could be done locally. And today believe that technology, even more so today, can make that possible, and make a lot of the services that weren't available in a small city of a million or two million people possible today.

   19. NKNikhil Kamath31:50

       Mm-hmm.

   20. VKVinod Khosla31:50

       So really have every person in India be able to live within a bicycle commute. Now, today is a little different, but back then, most of the population was rural.

   21. NKNikhil Kamath32:01

       Mm-hmm.

   22. VKVinod Khosla32:02

       So you had to speculate that most of it will move to cities.

   23. NKNikhil Kamath32:05

       Mm-hmm.

   24. VKVinod Khosla32:05

       As happened in this country, and happened in other countries, too.

   25. NKNikhil Kamath32:10

       Right.

   26. VKVinod Khosla32:11

       Right. China's seen some of this migration, with pretty negative consequences of people moving a- away from their communities.

10. 32:19 – 37:55

    Vinod’s Best Advice to Young Founders

    1. VKVinod Khosla32:19

       So-

    2. NKNikhil Kamath32:19

       If you were a betting man, would you bet on de-urbanization or urbanization in the next decade?

    3. VKVinod Khosla32:26

       Uh, I think it will depend on, in each country, on the policies they adapt and the incentive systems they set up.

    4. NKNikhil Kamath32:33

       Which do you suspect is a better policy?

    5. VKVinod Khosla32:36

       Oh, de-urbanization is clearly a better policy, right? Yeah, I believe. Right.

    6. NKNikhil Kamath32:42

       And if I were to bring it back to our audience, Vinod, assume I'm a twenty-two-year-old boy or girl in India. I want to learn from Vinod, who has done a spectacular job of calling what industries might do well tomorrow. In... I want help from you in figuring out where I should spend the next ten or twenty years of my life. Which industry should I work in, in terms of a job, or which industry should I start a company in?

    7. VKVinod Khosla33:12

       So, [sighs] now you come to a very hard q- question. Um, you know, if I'm twenty, by the time I'm thirty-five-

    8. NKNikhil Kamath33:23

       Yeah

    9. VKVinod Khosla33:23

       ... the year 2040, the world will be more different from today, by, in fifteen years.

    10. NKNikhil Kamath33:34

        Mm-hmm.

    11. VKVinod Khosla33:35

        Well within the lifetime, if you're going to medical school and take five, six years doing that, you've wasted yours, half that time than the world is today from twenty s- uh, 1970.

    12. NKNikhil Kamath33:48

        Mm.

    13. VKVinod Khosla33:48

        So you'd have to look back fifty-five years, fifty years or more.

    14. NKNikhil Kamath33:54

        Why don't you call five years for me? I want to learn from you in making my career choice today. So if ten, fifteen years are too far ahead to extrapolate, I'm twenty-two today, tell me for when I'm twenty-seven, five years from now.

    15. VKVinod Khosla34:09

        So the, the answer is the same for both.

    16. NKNikhil Kamath34:12

        Right.

    17. VKVinod Khosla34:12

        Sorry, long-winded way.

    18. NKNikhil Kamath34:14

        Right.

    19. VKVinod Khosla34:14

        The point I was making is we'll see more change in the next fifteen years than we've seen the last fifty.

    20. NKNikhil Kamath34:21

        Mm-hmm.

    21. VKVinod Khosla34:22

        And fifty years ago, the [chuckles] the world, especially in India, was a very, very different world.

    22. NKNikhil Kamath34:27

        Mm-hmm.

    23. VKVinod Khosla34:28

        You know, in 1970, I never had a TV at home-

    24. NKNikhil Kamath34:32

        Mm-hmm

    25. VKVinod Khosla34:32

        ... or a telephone at home. Like, even when I left India, I'd never had a telephone or a TV at home.

    26. NKNikhil Kamath34:39

        Right.

    27. VKVinod Khosla34:39

        Right? It wasn't something that was in most homes-

    28. NKNikhil Kamath34:42

        Mm-hmm

    29. VKVinod Khosla34:43

        ... in India, or running water, [chuckles] or very basic things.

    30. NKNikhil Kamath34:48

        Mm-hmm.
11. 37:55 – 43:03

    Generalist or Specialist: What’s Better?

    1. NKNikhil Kamath37:55

       hear you, Vinod, when you say the rate of change will be faster. I'm going to, as a twenty-two-year-old, be more adaptable and flexible. I still need to make a choice today. Do I work in a IT services company? Do I work in a nuclear fusion company? Do I work in a data center? I still need to pick.

    2. VKVinod Khosla38:16

       Yeah. So I, I, I do think it almost doesn't matter where you start.

    3. NKNikhil Kamath38:22

       Right.

    4. VKVinod Khosla38:23

       Okay? I'm saying, first, education is going to be valuable to have lear- to learn how to learn-

    5. NKNikhil Kamath38:33

       Mm-hmm.

    6. VKVinod Khosla38:33

       -not to be good at one thing, like, being an accountant or a, a chartered accountant. Right, that's not gonna be important, but that education, the process of learning how to learn... And in fact, one of the best things about computer science isn't that you can learn, you know programming.

    7. NKNikhil Kamath38:57

       Mm-hmm.

    8. VKVinod Khosla38:58

       'Cause, you know, Google's gone from zero percent AI-generated code to, I think, they last claimed thirty-five percent of all code being written in Google is being written by an AI.

    9. NKNikhil Kamath39:12

       Mm-hmm.

    10. VKVinod Khosla39:12

        But it's the process of thinking that computer science teaches you really well.

    11. NKNikhil Kamath39:18

        Mm-hmm.

    12. VKVinod Khosla39:19

        And learning architectures and systems and system th- some of those things, uh, are about learning to learn. Uh, but you can do it in a number of areas, so it's not just computer science. Um, so I would say there's a wide range of things, but keeping your, uh, lens zoomed out for the widest angle- [chuckles]

    13. NKNikhil Kamath39:46

        Mm-hmm.

    14. VKVinod Khosla39:47

        -is sort of the way to think about how you should go about your career.

    15. NKNikhil Kamath39:51

        So you're saying don't be a specialist, be a generalist.

    16. VKVinod Khosla39:54

        Be a generalist, not a specialist. Absolutely.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath39:57

        Right.

    18. VKVinod Khosla39:58

        And learn how to be a generalist.

    19. NKNikhil Kamath40:00

        Mm-hmm.

    20. VKVinod Khosla40:00

        Learn how to use AI the best. Uh, and we maybe... You know, maybe it'll eliminate all jobs, AI will. But the fact is, for certain, the people who don't know how to use AI will be obsoleted by people who know how to use AI first.

    21. NKNikhil Kamath40:19

        Mm-hmm. Right.

    22. VKVinod Khosla40:19

        And there, if you're dynamic and learning, then you can move with whatever is happening in the world. I would say the following: It's just because we can't predict the future doesn't mean it won't be dramatically different.

    23. NKNikhil Kamath40:39

        Mm-hmm.

    24. VKVinod Khosla40:40

        We just don't know what it will be. I like to say something else, um, which is most people, most of the time, assume improbables are not important.

    25. NKNikhil Kamath40:54

        Mm-hmm.

    26. VKVinod Khosla40:56

        I've always as- assumed the exact opposite. Only the improb- improbables are important. We just don't know which of a thousand improbables is important. So what do you do in that case? You go for agility, you follow trends, you move around, you be more adaptable and flexible.

    27. NKNikhil Kamath41:16

        Mm-hmm.

    28. VKVinod Khosla41:16

        You do more first, more first principles thinking. It's a very different way of growing up, whether you're twenty or you're sixty or seventy.

    29. NKNikhil Kamath41:26

        Mm-hmm.

    30. VKVinod Khosla41:27

        And you know, clearly, I'm learning more now, as I said. And so today, I feel like, uh, I can have an intelligent con- conversation around cell therapy-
12. 43:03 – 48:40

    Post AI World: Free Education & Healthcare?

    1. NKNikhil Kamath43:03

       If AI were to disrupt all jobs, will AI also need to be nationalized, and we move back to a socialistic economy in a way?

    2. VKVinod Khosla43:12

       I, you know, look-

    3. NKNikhil Kamath43:14

       Or does capital continue to remain the moat going into a world like that?

    4. VKVinod Khosla43:20

       It's very hard to tell. It depends on policies each country adopts.

    5. NKNikhil Kamath43:25

       Mm-hmm.

    6. VKVinod Khosla43:25

       And I think each country, or at least each region, will make different choices. Um, so, why do we have capitalism? It was fundamentally for economic efficiency. The world of Adam Smith-

    7. NKNikhil Kamath43:47

       Mm-hmm.

    8. VKVinod Khosla43:47

       -was about economic efficiency, and the idea that if, if a human is doing a job, they'll be much more efficient if they're doing it for themselves and earning-

    9. NKNikhil Kamath44:01

       Mm-hmm

    10. VKVinod Khosla44:01

        ... more income. The w- the ne- the need for efficiency may decline dramatically in most areas, not in all areas. You know, uh, you'll still need to be efficient in the amount of steel or cement or copper you use, but efficiency's role will decline.

    11. NKNikhil Kamath44:27

        Mm-hmm.

    12. VKVinod Khosla44:28

        And hence, uh, how you structure it and how you give the benefits of these technologies to everybody is, is a social choice. It's not a technology choice. It's not a choice entrepreneurs will make.

    13. NKNikhil Kamath44:50

        Could one argue that before Adam Smith cropped up in Scotland, if you go back many centuries before that, man was still looking out for his best, his own interest? So we might not have had the term capitalism in today's parlance.

    14. VKVinod Khosla45:06

        Well, it was always about-

    15. NKNikhil Kamath45:07

        Yeah

    16. VKVinod Khosla45:07

        ... capitalism, right?

    17. NKNikhil Kamath45:08

        So in a post-AI world as well, we will feel the need to distinguish ourselves and compete?

    18. VKVinod Khosla45:13

        Yes, but will we have the ability to? So imagine the following. Uh, you've seen my wife's company, CK-12.

    19. NKNikhil Kamath45:22

        Yeah.

    20. VKVinod Khosla45:22

        If every child in India, which I hope happens-

    21. NKNikhil Kamath45:25

        Mm-hmm

    22. VKVinod Khosla45:26

        ... in the next five years-

    23. NKNikhil Kamath45:27

        Mm-hmm

    24. VKVinod Khosla45:27

        ... has a free AI tutor. That's entirely possible today at a small fraction of the education government, budget the government has today.

    25. NKNikhil Kamath45:39

        Right.

    26. VKVinod Khosla45:39

        And it'll be better than the best education a r- a rich person can offer their kids by hiring them personal teachers. Almost certainly, the AI will do a better job than the most expensive tutor or teacher you can hire for your kids, if you're rich and can afford anything. In that world, education is really free, and it's ongoing.

    27. NKNikhil Kamath46:07

        Mm-hmm.

    28. VKVinod Khosla46:08

        And whether it's s- sixth-grade education or college education or professional education, it doesn't matter, and you'll be able to do anything at any time and switch your majors. 'Cause you don't have to go back to s- college for three or five years, uh, to change from electrical engineering to mechanical engineering or from medicine to something else. Uh, I think that world is soon. Um, imagine... So education's free. Imagine if medical expertise was free.

    29. NKNikhil Kamath46:50

        Mm-hmm.

    30. VKVinod Khosla46:50

        Every doctor was free.
13. 48:40 – 55:03

    Will AI Make A Free Stanford Education Possible?

    1. NKNikhil Kamath48:41

       Based on that, if the AI models of today, the incumbent world, are controlled by one geography, how do you think of sovereign AI in countries like India?

    2. VKVinod Khosla48:52

       Well, that's why we have, uh, we have Sarvam in India.

    3. NKNikhil Kamath48:57

       Mm-hmm.

    4. VKVinod Khosla48:58

       You know, I've always assumed countries will want sovereign AI. That's why we invest in Sarvam in India. We invest in a company called Sakana in Japan for the same reason. Now, certain populations aren't large enough-

    5. NKNikhil Kamath49:14

       Mm-hmm.

    6. VKVinod Khosla49:14

       -to have their own AI, but s- regions do. [clears throat]

    7. NKNikhil Kamath49:19

       Do you think the time is near when we all start capitalizing and protecting our data in a manner that we give access to some AI based on our preferences or geographies?

    8. VKVinod Khosla49:36

       Uh, again, that'll be a function of government policy.

    9. NKNikhil Kamath49:39

       Right.

    10. VKVinod Khosla49:39

        Right? Europeans have very different data policy than the US does.

    11. NKNikhil Kamath49:44

        Right. Likely outcome, you think?

    12. VKVinod Khosla49:49

        I don't think so.

    13. NKNikhil Kamath49:50

        Hmm.

    14. VKVinod Khosla49:52

        I think... Look, you can choose not to share any information with Google today.

    15. NKNikhil Kamath49:59

        Mm-hmm.

    16. VKVinod Khosla50:00

        Or wipe out all your information. But do you then get the benefits of the services on which they can cust-- whi- which they can customize to you? I have no question, I'd rather share my data and get customized services than get services that are not customized to me.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath50:26

        I would say that if my data is the commodity that is bringing revenue to company X, I would want to get a share in the revenue in one manner or another.

    18. VKVinod Khosla50:39

        But you do. Um, Reid Hoffman has a new book called Superagency. If you read it, he talks about the fact that, you know, f- if you ask people the following question: "At what price would you not use Facebook?" Right? Like, if, "How much would you pay if I said, 'I'm taking it away, but you can get it back if you pay for it?'" Then it's, like, forty or fifty dollars a month.

    19. NKNikhil Kamath51:17

        Mm-hmm.

    20. VKVinod Khosla51:18

        How much does Facebook make from you per month, on average? About f- forty or fifty dollars a year. So you're getting, pick a number, six hundred dollars worth of value, and they're getting fifty dollars worth of value in a year. What is a fair exchange? Everybody has the option to not buy into these services. Now, there's lots of nuances, but is an economic surplus created? Yes. Um, a- again, it's a policy question.

    21. NKNikhil Kamath51:59

        Yeah, it kind of like-

    22. VKVinod Khosla52:01

        The government policy will have a lot more to do with these things-

    23. NKNikhil Kamath52:05

        Mm-hmm.

    24. VKVinod Khosla52:05

        -than people realize today.

    25. NKNikhil Kamath52:07

        Mm-hmm.

    26. VKVinod Khosla52:08

        And, you know, I've argued, and I would argue, as part of Aadhaar, today we have UPI-

    27. NKNikhil Kamath52:17

        Mm-hmm.

    28. VKVinod Khosla52:18

        -which takes away the need for Visa and Mastercard, so it's a three percent tax on the economy that Indians don't pay.

    29. NKNikhil Kamath52:25

        Mm-hmm.

    30. VKVinod Khosla52:26

        But everybody in the US pays. Uh, but what if in, in addition to your payment services, there was medical services and education services? My bet is every Indian could get that at less than a dollar a month, or a billion dollars a year, a month for each of these, or ten billion a year. It's so trivial in cost. I- if I was PM Modi, I'd do, be doing everything I can to get those as common services. And at that point, you know, because AI is doing the work, you don't care about economic efficiency. Your government is as efficient as private enterprise in these services that can be made into AI, and they should be. They're so accessible today. They'll always be available. You know, if you live in a village, you shouldn't have to go take a day's journeys to go get a m- basic medical checkup, and the doctor sees you for five minutes, and then you spend a day getting back to your village. It just shouldn't.
14. 55:03 – 1:00:53

    A Deflated Economy in an AI World

    1. NKNikhil Kamath55:03

       No, I heard you and Bill debate this, "Why does regulation not allow doctors-"

    2. VKVinod Khosla55:09

       Yeah.

    3. NKNikhil Kamath55:09

       -in the UK, I think you were making a case for.

    4. VKVinod Khosla55:12

       Yeah.

    5. NKNikhil Kamath55:12

       Yeah, I heard you make that debate.

    6. VKVinod Khosla55:15

       Look, mental health services-

    7. NKNikhil Kamath55:16

       Yeah

    8. VKVinod Khosla55:16

       ... aren't available in India.

    9. NKNikhil Kamath55:18

       Mm.

    10. VKVinod Khosla55:19

        In the UK, we have something that's used by 40% of all NHS mental health clinics-

    11. NKNikhil Kamath55:28

        Mm

    12. VKVinod Khosla55:29

        ... to intake patients. What does intaking a patient mean? A conve- a therapist talk to them and classify their mental illness.

    13. NKNikhil Kamath55:41

        Mm-hmm.

    14. VKVinod Khosla55:42

        The AI is much more accurate than the human therapist, ah, 93% accuracy for talk-based therapy kinds of conditions. Uh, are you bipolar? Are you schizophrenic? Are you depressed? Um, um, and AI can do the therapy.

    15. NKNikhil Kamath56:03

        Mm.

    16. VKVinod Khosla56:03

        It should be scaled infinitely in India.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath56:06

        Right.

    18. VKVinod Khosla56:08

        And it's the kind of thing people may be afraid to go or embarrassed to go ask for services, and there aren't enough therapists in India to meet everybody's needs, but the AI can offer it for free.

    19. NKNikhil Kamath56:20

        So in a way, you're also saying that UBI is a inevitability?

    20. VKVinod Khosla56:25

        I think some form of income redistribution-

    21. NKNikhil Kamath56:29

        Mm-hmm

    22. VKVinod Khosla56:29

        ... by 2050 will be absolutely essential everywhere in the world.

    23. NKNikhil Kamath56:33

        Do you think it'll be income redistribution, or will it be shoring up the bottom part of the population by-

    24. VKVinod Khosla56:42

        Well, there's many ways to get there. You could give everybody income-

    25. NKNikhil Kamath56:48

        Mm-hmm

    26. VKVinod Khosla56:49

        ... for not working.

    27. NKNikhil Kamath56:50

        Mm-hmm.

    28. VKVinod Khosla56:51

        The question is, where do you get that from?

    29. NKNikhil Kamath56:53

        Mm-hmm.

    30. VKVinod Khosla56:54

        There's probably another way, which is my favorite way, is to deflate the economy.
15. 1:00:53 – 1:05:44

    Why Strategic Entrepreneurs Win

    1. NKNikhil Kamath1:00:53

       If, say, ten entrepreneurs hear that, and they-

    2. VKVinod Khosla1:00:58

       And there will be ten-

    3. NKNikhil Kamath1:00:59

       Yeah

    4. VKVinod Khosla1:00:59

       -who hear that.

    5. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:00

       Yeah, a hundred percent. And they all use the same means to approach this problem, and AI is as democratic as it is right now, wouldn't they all ten arrive at the same solution?

    6. VKVinod Khosla1:01:13

       Um, I think there's massive difference in the quality of entrepreneurs, and the outcome will be a result of the quality of the entrepreneur.

    7. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:25

       Is that-

    8. VKVinod Khosla1:01:26

       How, how, how they think from first principles-

    9. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:28

       Mm-hmm.

    10. VKVinod Khosla1:01:28

        -how strategically they think.

    11. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:30

        Mm-hmm.

    12. VKVinod Khosla1:01:30

        Almost certainly, the people who only think a year out will be obsoleted by the people who think, "What do I want to build in five years?"

    13. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:38

        Mm-hmm.

    14. VKVinod Khosla1:01:38

        Um, "But what can I sell next year? What can-- But where do I want to head in five years?" Following a good analogy for entrepreneurs that I love, imagine you want to climb Mount Everest.

    15. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:54

        Mm-hmm.

    16. VKVinod Khosla1:01:55

        And you have two people setting out.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath1:01:57

        Mm-hmm.

    18. VKVinod Khosla1:01:59

        And one says, "I'll get to base camp-

    19. NKNikhil Kamath1:02:01

        Mm-hmm.

    20. VKVinod Khosla1:02:02

        -then to camp one, camp two, camp three." I think there's camp four and then the-

    21. NKNikhil Kamath1:02:07

        Mm-hmm

    22. VKVinod Khosla1:02:07

        ... peak, right? Uh, it's not a straight path.

    23. NKNikhil Kamath1:02:11

        Right.

    24. VKVinod Khosla1:02:12

        Another entrepreneur says, "I'm going to get the most revenue in year two."

    25. NKNikhil Kamath1:02:16

        Mm-hmm.

    26. VKVinod Khosla1:02:17

        Year one and year two. They won't go to camp one, uh, base camp-

    27. NKNikhil Kamath1:02:22

        Mm-hmm

    28. VKVinod Khosla1:02:22

        ... or camp one. They'll pick the highest peak that doesn't then lead to something beyond.

    29. NKNikhil Kamath1:02:28

        Hmm.

    30. VKVinod Khosla1:02:29

        The path to Everest through these camps is very strategically picked to have the long-term vision of getting to Av, uh, to Everest. Most people maximize revenue for the short term and are not thinking strategically. So the strategic entrepreneurs will do better. The entrepreneurs who pick better employees, who help them think through strategy, will do better. So people selection or team building will become the most important characteristic where the AI technology is democratized, if you believe it's democratized. Um, [clear throat] which investor you pick, do they have a short-term orientation or a long-term ori...? Makes a dramatic difference. What kind of advice you get. Most of the advice most entrepreneurs get is bad.
16. 1:05:44 – 1:08:25

    Speculation vs Adaptation: What Helps You Win?

    1. NKNikhil Kamath1:05:44

       So we know that I've been spending a lot of time with my team, trying to come up with a thesis of what sectors might do better than others as this change in the world happens, while it occurs. Some of the things that we've, we've been digging data up around are things like the world will be older and sicker, and people will have lesser kids than they're having or were having ten years ago. When people have more time and discretionary spending power, they go back to their innate programming of wanting to speculate. So speculative businesses might do better. Do you have thoughts on these or opinions like this of your own?

    2. VKVinod Khosla1:06:29

       On the entrepreneur side, I look at the question: Who thinks from first principles?

    3. NKNikhil Kamath1:06:37

       Mm-hmm.

    4. VKVinod Khosla1:06:39

       Who's not scared of hardship?

    5. NKNikhil Kamath1:06:41

       Mm-hmm.

    6. VKVinod Khosla1:06:42

       'Cause the entrepreneurial roller coaster has lots of highs and lows. Um, and who has the fastest learning rate?

    7. NKNikhil Kamath1:06:52

       Mm-hmm.

    8. VKVinod Khosla1:06:53

       Right? If they're a fast learner, they'll adapt to the world as it changes.... and that may be the most important characteristic of an entrepreneur.

    9. NKNikhil Kamath1:07:04

       Yeah. I'm making the assumption that you're a faster learner than everyone else here, and I want to know what you've adapted to now that I might not be seeing yet.

    10. VKVinod Khosla1:07:15

        Well, I don't think people believe this world I'm describing. So if you look at my, mmm, AI dystopia or utopia paper-

    11. NKNikhil Kamath1:07:25

        Mm-hmm.

    12. VKVinod Khosla1:07:25

        -paper, most of the world I'm talking about is not something people believe.

    13. NKNikhil Kamath1:07:33

        But that's natural, 'cause I feel like humans are programmed to worry a lot more about fear than think of the gain that they're getting-

    14. VKVinod Khosla1:07:43

        Yeah.

    15. NKNikhil Kamath1:07:43

        -twice as much, according to Kahneman.

    16. VKVinod Khosla1:07:45

        It is, but not everybody is, not all humans, and that, those are the people who will do well.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath1:07:50

        Hmm.

    18. VKVinod Khosla1:07:50

        Who are optimistic about the future and then persistent through real hardship-

    19. NKNikhil Kamath1:07:56

        Mm-hmm

    20. VKVinod Khosla1:07:56

        ... of the ups and downs to f- make the passion they have happen.

    21. NKNikhil Kamath1:08:02

        Right.

    22. VKVinod Khosla1:08:02

        Like, we, we have a company-

    23. NKNikhil Kamath1:08:05

        Mm-hmm

    24. VKVinod Khosla1:08:05

        ... that's building public transit based on self-driving.

    25. NKNikhil Kamath1:08:10

        Mm-hmm.

    26. VKVinod Khosla1:08:11

        Where the vehicles become small and personal. You don't need a DTC bus in New Delhi-

    27. NKNikhil Kamath1:08:17

        Mm-hmm

    28. VKVinod Khosla1:08:18

        ... to carry people. It can be a two-person pod-

    29. NKNikhil Kamath1:08:22

        Mm-hmm

    30. VKVinod Khosla1:08:23

        -that drives itself from A

17. 1:08:25 – 1:10:09

    Will All Mobility Be Electric?

    1. VKVinod Khosla1:08:25

       to B.

    2. NKNikhil Kamath1:08:25

       I actually have a personal question around this. For the last couple of years, I had come up-- I almost made an assumption that mobility will move to electric from IC fossil fuel-based, and I bet on everything from scooter companies to car, truck, bus, even a flying taxi company. But the adoption to EV in this last cycle seems to be slowing down. Do you agree with that thesis that all vehicle, all mobility will be electric in nature? And if yes, why is it slowing down?

    3. VKVinod Khosla1:09:03

       On land, yes.

    4. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:04

       Right.

    5. VKVinod Khosla1:09:05

       Almost certainly.

    6. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:07

       Why is it slowing down, the pace of adapt- adoption?

    7. VKVinod Khosla1:09:09

       You know, look, anytime you're an incumbent-

    8. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:14

       Right

    9. VKVinod Khosla1:09:14

       ... you wanna slow things down. It's to your advantage that things change slowly, because you'll adapt more slowly.

    10. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:22

        Mm-hmm.

    11. VKVinod Khosla1:09:23

        And so incumbents always do that, and there's always fits and starts. It's never a straight line.

    12. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:29

        Mm-hmm.

    13. VKVinod Khosla1:09:30

        Uh, but I can't see... You know, the, some of the US companies are slowing down, but what's happening? BYD in China is the fastest-growing company in the automotive world.

    14. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:46

        Actually, even in India, a lot of companies are slowing down.

    15. VKVinod Khosla1:09:49

        Yeah, and that may be, but that doesn't change eventually where it'll get to.

    16. NKNikhil Kamath1:09:55

        Yeah. I hope so, too, but-

    17. VKVinod Khosla1:09:57

        Yeah. I'm pretty sh- certain that'll happen.

    18. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:00

        Hmm.

    19. VKVinod Khosla1:10:01

        But the more the uncertainty, the harder it is to pick the right company to invest in,

18. 1:10:09 – 1:13:02

    Why Passion Matters More Than People Think

    1. VKVinod Khosla1:10:09

       but-

    2. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:09

       Do you think energy and data centers as a business, sufficient legroom and tailwinds to be, if I were twenty-two and starting off, to spend a decade in them? By energy, I don't mean the means of generating energy. It could be fusion, it could be something else, but focusing on energy.

    3. VKVinod Khosla1:10:30

       You know, I would say there's some combination of where your passion is and expertise.

    4. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:37

       Hmm.

    5. VKVinod Khosla1:10:37

       Passion counts for more than-

    6. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:40

       Hmm

    7. VKVinod Khosla1:10:40

       ... most people think.

    8. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:42

       Hmm.

    9. VKVinod Khosla1:10:42

       Right? Uh, because you persist through ups and downs.

    10. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:47

        Hmm.

    11. VKVinod Khosla1:10:48

        And if you don't have passion, you give up. It's like you don't give up on your religion just because you had a hard time.

    12. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:55

        Hmm.

    13. VKVinod Khosla1:10:55

        Uh, so-

    14. NKNikhil Kamath1:10:57

        Someone wise once said, "A emotion which is a passion, ceases to be a passion once you developed a clear understanding of it." So you're not really... It's very hard to be passionate about something that you've understood. Religion could fall in that territory. Nobody can truly understand it. And I've heard you in a, in interviews say that passion is not necessarily the pivotal force that should define which sector you should work in.

    15. VKVinod Khosla1:11:34

        So I, I think in the world of the past-

    16. NKNikhil Kamath1:11:37

        Yeah

    17. VKVinod Khosla1:11:37

        ... I used to tell kids, "When the advice you get is, 'Follow your passion'-"

    18. NKNikhil Kamath1:11:42

        Mm.

    19. VKVinod Khosla1:11:43

        - "I would say, follow your passion if you're willing to starve and not make a living for your family."

    20. NKNikhil Kamath1:11:48

        Live on a beach in a hut and stuff. I remember you saying this.

    21. VKVinod Khosla1:11:50

        Yeah.

    22. NKNikhil Kamath1:11:51

        Yeah.

    23. VKVinod Khosla1:11:51

        So you can go surfing-

    24. NKNikhil Kamath1:11:52

        Mm.

    25. VKVinod Khosla1:11:52

        -and you can absolutely go live in Hawaii and survive.

    26. NKNikhil Kamath1:11:56

        Mm.

    27. VKVinod Khosla1:11:57

        But you're not paying for a Stanford education for your kids-

    28. NKNikhil Kamath1:12:01

        Right

    29. VKVinod Khosla1:12:02

        ... if you're surfing.

    30. NKNikhil Kamath1:12:03

        Yeah.
19. 1:13:02 – 1:16:48

    Are We in an AI Bubble?

    1. NKNikhil Kamath1:13:02

       In all that you're saying, Vinod, do you-... You're coming across very optimistic and utopian about this whole thing. I know you don't believe in bubbles per se, but as an investor, you've seen the many cycles, many more than I have. Do you think we could be in, in a bubble today and overestimating-- I'm not saying overestimating the change, but the pace or the rate of change?

    2. VKVinod Khosla1:13:29

       I would make the following differentiation.

    3. NKNikhil Kamath1:13:32

       Mm-hmm.

    4. VKVinod Khosla1:13:35

       Investment is a different thing than building.

    5. NKNikhil Kamath1:13:38

       Mm-hmm.

    6. VKVinod Khosla1:13:40

       So when you're an investor, in, uh, by and large, you're competing with other investors that have only two emotions: fear and greed. Right? And so every time there's an opportunity-rich space-

    7. NKNikhil Kamath1:13:56

       Mm-hmm.

    8. VKVinod Khosla1:13:56

       -you get a bubble. Um, if you look at the dot-com bubble in nineteen ninety-eight or so, if you look at stock prices, they went up, and then they collapsed, and then they normalized.

    9. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:14

       Yeah.

    10. VKVinod Khosla1:14:15

        But I don't look at that world because I don't think of myself as an investor. I say, "What happened to internet traffic?" You can't tell where the bubble is, uh, by looking at internet traffic.

    11. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:28

        Mm.

    12. VKVinod Khosla1:14:29

        Okay? Uh, the, one of the original bubbles was in the eighteen thirties in England, when r- railroads first came, and you got the-

    13. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:39

        Industrial Revolution.

    14. VKVinod Khosla1:14:40

        -you got the right to build-

    15. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:41

        Mm-hmm.

    16. VKVinod Khosla1:14:42

        -uh, railroad between two cities, you could offer scripts.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:46

        Mm-hmm.

    18. VKVinod Khosla1:14:46

        Essentially, do a stock, i- an IPO.

    19. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:49

        Mm-hmm.

    20. VKVinod Khosla1:14:50

        Um, and of course, there was a huge bubble in script prices and then a collapse.

    21. NKNikhil Kamath1:14:57

        Mm-hmm.

    22. VKVinod Khosla1:14:58

        The same thing, if you look at the miles of railroad built-

    23. NKNikhil Kamath1:15:01

        Mm-hmm.

    24. VKVinod Khosla1:15:02

        -you can't tell when the bubble was in the eighteen thirties. So what is reality for you? To me, the reality is internet traffic, miles of railroad built, AI applications. AI valuations isn't something I worry about, but there surely will be a bubble, uh, almost certainly.

    25. NKNikhil Kamath1:15:25

        Will be, or?

    26. VKVinod Khosla1:15:26

        Will, will be, or we are in one.

    27. NKNikhil Kamath1:15:28

        Right.

    28. VKVinod Khosla1:15:29

        Uh, I like to say, even in twenty twenty-five-

    29. NKNikhil Kamath1:15:33

        Mm.

    30. VKVinod Khosla1:15:34

        -most investments that are made will lose money.
20. 1:16:48 – 1:20:35

    What Blockchain is Really Good At

    1. NKNikhil Kamath1:16:48

       Do you have a view on crypto and blockchains? They're not allowed in India. It's a, it's a world where we have seen-

    2. VKVinod Khosla1:16:56

       Sure

    3. NKNikhil Kamath1:16:57

       ... sudden adoption in the West and some neighbors of ours, but-

    4. VKVinod Khosla1:17:00

       Again, as w- you've seen, crypto has been a function of politics-

    5. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:04

       Right

    6. VKVinod Khosla1:17:04

       ... not of reality.

    7. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:06

       You don't think?

    8. VKVinod Khosla1:17:07

       Uh, I, I think there's very different wor- worlds of crypto.

    9. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:15

       Mm-hmm.

    10. VKVinod Khosla1:17:16

        There's cryptocurrency, very, very different than the blockchain.

    11. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:20

        Mm-hmm.

    12. VKVinod Khosla1:17:21

        The blockchain has a lot of uses.

    13. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:23

        Mm-hmm.

    14. VKVinod Khosla1:17:24

        And if you said to me, "Will we see adoption of stable coins?" Absolutely. It makes total sense to adopt stable coins.

    15. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:33

        Mm.

    16. VKVinod Khosla1:17:34

        Okay? Every economy should have a stable coin. The Indian government should issue a stable coin.

    17. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:39

        Mm-hmm.

    18. VKVinod Khosla1:17:40

        And then great place to do it with the Aadhaar system.

    19. NKNikhil Kamath1:17:44

        But don't you think something is wrong with the premise that you didn't trust regulation in the formal economy, so you created a blockchain outside and a crypto on top of it? Now, if you denominate the stable coin with the same dollar or the same currency, aren't you, like-

    20. VKVinod Khosla1:18:01

        Well

    21. NKNikhil Kamath1:18:01

        ... going around in a circle?

    22. VKVinod Khosla1:18:03

        Here's the problem: when you don't have trust-

    23. NKNikhil Kamath1:18:08

        Mm-hmm.

    24. VKVinod Khosla1:18:10

        The-- W-when is the blockchain important? When you don't have centralized trust.

    25. NKNikhil Kamath1:18:15

        Yeah.

    26. VKVinod Khosla1:18:15

        Okay. I don't think distributed trust works across borders in all areas altogether.

    27. NKNikhil Kamath1:18:24

        Mm-hmm.

    28. VKVinod Khosla1:18:25

        So the vast majority of uses of crypto are illegal stuff: gun trades, drug trades-

    29. NKNikhil Kamath1:18:32

        Mm-hmm

    30. VKVinod Khosla1:18:33

        ... uh, sex trafficking, arms trades. It's the worst use of crypto.
21. 1:20:35 – 1:21:51

    Will India’s IT Sector Survive the AI Shift?

    1. NKNikhil Kamath1:20:35

       Specifically to your home country, Vinod, of India, which has a disproportionately high number of IT services being exported. I can't remember the number, but somewhere around two hundred billion. What do we do? How do we become ready into tomorrow?

    2. VKVinod Khosla1:20:52

       I think it's very... You know, BPO as a business will disappear.

    3. NKNikhil Kamath1:20:56

       Yeah.

    4. VKVinod Khosla1:20:57

       Software IT services will mostly disappear. Disappear means transform pretty radically. Uh, whether some of those companies can transform or not will determine whether they survive or not.

    5. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:12

       What do you suspect, will they? Will the incumbents transform?

    6. VKVinod Khosla1:21:18

       Today, I see them adjusting incrementally, not radically.

    7. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:22

       Hmm.

    8. VKVinod Khosla1:21:24

       Here's the problem, right? If I can do a system integration service for one-fifth the cost, uh, the customer will always take one-fifth-

    9. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:33

       Mm-hmm

    10. VKVinod Khosla1:21:34

        ... modular trust. So will some of these vendors drop their prices by five X or eighty percent, or at least by sixty percent, uh, and then expand their services? Hard to tell.

22. 1:21:51 – 1:22:05

    Outro

    1. VKVinod Khosla1:21:51

       I do apologize. I have-

    2. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:52

       Yeah

    3. VKVinod Khosla1:21:53

       ... I'm late for a dinner.

    4. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:53

       No, thank you. Thank you for doing this, Vinod. This was fun.

    5. VKVinod Khosla1:21:56

       Yeah.

    6. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:56

       Thank you for having done it.

    7. VKVinod Khosla1:21:56

       This was fun, but I'm happy to catch up-

    8. NKNikhil Kamath1:21:59

       Yeah

    9. VKVinod Khosla1:22:00

       ... sometime.

    10. NKNikhil Kamath1:22:00

        Yeah, hundred percent. We'll do it. [logo swooshing]

Episode duration: 1:22:10