PivotPollster: Trump's Approval Ratings At "Five-Alarm Fire" Level | Pivot
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
70 min read · 14,086 words- 0:00 – 1:31
Intro
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
His brand is firing. His brand is getting rid of incompetence, and now he, he has-- he keeps them, and you're like, "Oh, my God, you're keeping the incompetence." [upbeat music]
- KSKara Swisher
Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. Scott is off, so I brought in a brilliant co-host again, as are everyone who's not Scott, uh, Kristin Soltis Anderson, pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights and contributing opinion writer for The New York Times, and someone I really like a lot, who's super smart. Nice to see you.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, thanks for having me, Kara.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. So, um, welcome. What's going on? What's going on? The world of polling is insane right now, correct?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
It's, it is as insane as it can be, considering that there is not an election that is imminent. Uh-
- KSKara Swisher
Right. Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... you know, it's like the world gets-- polling world gets crazy in the immediate lead-up to an election because somebody's got a new survey coming out every day in some interesting swing state when it is election season. But right now, it's a little bit of the doldrums for that. And so what is instead kind of crazy is all of the changes around how is AI gonna change our industry and those-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... sorts of things.
- KSKara Swisher
We're gonna get to that. We're gonna talk about the predictions industry and play a little bit of Scott, who loves it. I don't love it quite so much, and I know you have some thoughts, so it's really important to be talking about it because what we're interested in is accurate information, and it's very hard to get it. Anyway, uh, there's so much going on. We-- Let's get right to the news because you've been doing tons of stuff in The Times and elsewhere, and we've talked a little bit about... But we, of course, have to start with Donald Trump
- 1:31 – 8:50
Trump’s Iran Ultimatums
- KSKara Swisher
has once again issued an ultimatum to Iran, I think it's the twenty-seventh one, posting on Truth Social on Easter Sunday, quote, and let me just read this correctly, "Open the fucking strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell," which sounds like a line from... I don't even think movies would write those lines anymore. Um, if Iran doesn't comply, Trump is threatening to target the country's power plants and bridges. Iran says it will retaliate crushingly and extensively if civilian infrastructure targets are hit, so they're just coming back with the same dialogue. This all comes after a successful rescue of two US airmen whose jet was shot down, uh, over Iran on Friday. It's not great that the jets were shot down. We're taping this before Trump's press conference on Iran and these military rescues. So Kristin, most polls show the majority of Americans are opposed to this war, right? Pretty significantly. You recently did some polling with Trump's MAGA base. Talk a little bit about what's happening here, uh, in the polling and the thinking around it.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah. And so normally, historically, when the US gets into conflict, uh, overseas, there's normally a little bit of a rally around the flag effect, um, because normally we are getting involved in response to some kind of provocation, um, whether it was after 9/11, et cetera. Um, in this case, there was not really groundwork laid to make the case to the American people for why we needed to do this. And so, you know, in my polling, when you say, "Would it be legitimate to engage in military activity against the Iranian government if they were developing a nuclear weapon?" like two-thirds of Americans say yes to, to a bunch of those different kinds of things. But it's clear that that case wasn't really made well to the public because then when you say, "Now, do you support or oppose what we're doing in Iran?" most don't, don't support it. Um, or they have some real serious questions. In fact, it is the MAGA base that is the most supportive of what we're doing. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Which is us
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... there's so much interesting discourse around how Donald Trump reshaped the Republican Party, and there's this view that there is the old Republican Party that, like, longs for the day of Ronald Reagan and says, you know, "We love when the United States projects its power overseas," and that Donald Trump has, you know, refashioned the Republican Party in his own image away from that. No more forever wars, America first, and all of that. But actually, when you ask voters who identify themselves as, like, Trump supporters first before being Republican supporters, they are the most likely to sort of say, "If Donald Trump says it's a good idea, I'm kinda willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on this."
- KSKara Swisher
Even though they backed him for America First and no foreign wars. Not everybody. Obviously, Marjorie Taylor Greene put out a pretty big, long... Well, a lot of things that she put out about his health and his mental state and stuff like that. But, um, w- w- h- why is that? Why is the shift? It's just whatever he says goes, or d- they don't really care what the words are or the-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So-
- KSKara Swisher
... policies?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... there are some people who are part of Donald Trump's coalition who are pretty, uh, you know... They don't want the US to be involved in-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... military activity overseas.
- KSKara Swisher
And they're very outspoken.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And they're quite outspoken about it, but those are different from MAGA voters, and I think there's a... Uh, it's, like, very easy to kind of conflate, like, the MAGA movement equals everybody who voted for Donald Trump, and, like, that's not true. Um, there are a lot of people who... In fact, i- in some of the polling that I've seen, it is the type of voter who is not a Republican and is pretty isolationist, is among the most likely to have, like, come join the Republican coalition recently. So Donald Trump does have a potential political problem with some people who really liked him and feel betrayed by what he's doing. But the core MAGA faithful and the Republican Party, as reconstituted by Donald Trump, at the moment, is reserving judgment and saying, "You know what? I think he's probably on the right track. Let's see how this plays out." And I just-
- KSKara Swisher
And how many people is that? What is the amount? 'Cause majority of... He's lost in the... But the numbers are pretty staggering when you look at any-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... poll, almost every one of them, including Fox polls, all kinds of polls.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah, so the, uh... I sort of estimate that the MAGA movement is about a quarter to a third, depending on... I mean, it's a, it's a pretty fluid section of the Republican Party, but it's not half the country, and I think the big political risk Donald Trump faces is, like, it didn't have to be something where he was losing a majority of Americans. He could have, I think, communicated at least somewhat effectively about, "Hey, this is a government that's been declaring death to America for decades, and here are the specific things that they are doing that put us at risk. Here's why I'm going to do this. Here's what I'm going to take out." And I don't think it had to be a situation where he was losing half the public right from the get-go. Um, but because of that lack of clarity in communication that has not really been followed by a ton of clarity in communication, like, the numbers are getting worse, not better.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. Okay, so we talk about that for a second, the clarity in communication, because a lot of it is marketing. You're talking about marketing, like we're gonna market this more to you. Why, why was it not there, and what impact-- how, how-- 'cause most people do give pe- presidents the benefit of the doubt something was up, although he had previously bombed them and said he obliterated them, so why the need to obliterate them again? I mean, I, I even had Tom Tellus saying that, like, "Oh, we obliterated, then we obliterated, and now I guess we're obliterating." He was sort of articulating that lack of clarity.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah. Well, I, I, I don't know that I would just say that it is marketing, because I think for something like this, I mean, it, it-- to me, the bar does feel higher than trying to sell somebody soda or potato chips or sneakers. I know that's not what you're saying, but I-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... I think that the-- it, it's not just can you put out a snazzy video that makes it look like we're winning at a video game and you win, because that's, that's obviously part of the strategy and, and yet the numbers are, are what they are, that I think it is just that the, the American people simply want to know why is this in our interest? And if you can give a reasonably good answer to why something is in our interest, we tend as a people to sort of give the commander-in-chief, maybe not today with Donald Trump as such a polarizing figure, but we tend to say, "Okay, if you think that this is in our best interest, like, I'll give you a couple weeks to see how this plays out." And especially if the costs are not significantly high, people will give a little bit more of that runway. But one, you know, I mean, thank goodness that they have gotten these pilots back because that's, that's the kind of thing where it's, it is-- I can't wait to hear the, like, thrilling story of how this was done, but a combination of if military losses begin to pile up in a very significant way or the domestic impacts of the Strait of Hormuz, gas prices, all of that, you know, you can run out of that goodwill much more quickly. But r- right now, he didn't start with the l- the reservoir of goodwill that as a president you would want. Some of that's because he's Donald Trump, and there's just some people who aren't gonna like anything he does. But he also starts with people who will like anything he does, uh, who do sort of give him that benefit of the doubt, even if they would not give a President Marco Rubio or President JD Vance that same leeway. And it does not seem like he has taken this moment, and his numbers have not gone up at all.
- KSKara Swisher
They're going down. They're going down with everybody, correct? So let's
- 8:50 – 22:24
Trump’s Approval Ratings
- KSKara Swisher
talk about that because the, the numbers really are decl- they keep declining, which is really s- usually doesn't happen, especially for the midterms. President Trump's approval rating is just at thirty-five percent for his handling of the presidency overall and thirty-one percent for his handling of the economy, according to recent CNN polling. However, the news isn't great on either side. About a quarter of the country holds negative views of both parties. That's something not a fresh thing. Talk about when you look at this information, as it, it is, y- you know, one of the things about Donald Trump is he's unprecedented. He's unprecedented in the decline, and he's still standing kind of stuff. He keeps k- kicking the punches here from a polling and, and, and you can feel it. I have a lot of MAGA, not MAGA, but just Trump-adjacent relatives, and they really don't like him, like suddenly. Um, a- and they never would express that before.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
There's I think two things that are, that are ominous for Republicans. The first is with everything that's going on in foreign policy, um, foreign policy is not most voters' number one issue, but it is the background music. It is the thing that tells you what the commander-in-chief's values are. It says a lot about what his temperament is. I mean, we already know this like well-
- KSKara Swisher
Or what he's interested in.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yes.
- KSKara Swisher
Like not daycare, not prices.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
This is well-covered territory with Donald Trump in some ways, but it just sort of focuses the mind a little on like what is it that this person is all about. You s- you frankly saw something like this with Biden when you saw his job approval as we withdrew from Afghanistan and as that went terribly. That was the moment when his job approval went underwater and never recovered. It's not because most voters said, "What we do in Afghanistan is my number one issue," but it just, it, it like communicates something about the level of competence and priority setting and decision-making within the Oval Office that like carries over and bleeds over into how people think on a whole variety of issues. Um, that's risk number one. Risk number two, on the economy, um, I, I don't wanna take credit for this, but this was the, uh, my friends at the Central Air podcast were talking about this, that essentially Donald Trump had really good numbers in his first term on the economy, even among voters who didn't like him overall, thought he was crude, thought he was crass, thought he was a jerk, all of that. They still thought, not all of them, but s- a small subset thought, "Yeah, but at least he's good on the economy." And when COVID happened, he still got kind of a pass. Like, people sort of-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... understood-
- KSKara Swisher
Not his fault.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah. The, like, he did not create this virus. For all his faults-
- KSKara Swisher
[laughs]
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... he's, this is, this, this was not on him. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
For all the bleach invecti- invecting, injecting.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
But so for, for this time around, there's really no one else he can blame for the state of the economy, and he has tried to say, "I'm just cleaning up Biden's mess," but you kind of run out of runway on that eventually, where voters say, like, "I'm ti- like, Biden is so irrelevant to me. I'm tired of hearing about him. Just tell me what you're doing. What are you gonna do? I, I, I don't, I don't care what happened in twenty twenty-three, twenty twenty-four." Um, th- the fact that his numbers on the economy in that CNN poll had thirty-one percent job approval-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... that is atrocious. That is a five-alarm fire level number because, one, it's way below, like the norm for job approval these days hovers around forty percent. You start getting into the thirties, and that's scary land. You get into the low thirties, and that is, like, terminal. Um, and it- for it to be on the economy, which, you know, there have been other issues where his job approval has fluctuated big time, and people said, "Oh, I don't trust him on this X, Y, or Z." The economy was always the thing. "Oh, he's the apprentice guy. Oh, he's the business guy." And so for his job approval to be that low on the economy, if that does not turn around, that suggests to me a very... troubling midterm for Republicans-
- KSKara Swisher
So you, you focused-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... with that as the background noise
- KSKara Swisher
... recently on how Gen Z voters are feeling about the economy. What did you find there? Give us some specifics.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So Gen Z voters have, uh, the worst view of the economy, and even in just the last month it has plummeted precipitously. So when I say, you know, on the foreign policy stuff that Donald Trump mostly has the MAGA movement, there is a divide within the Republican Party, and it is older voters versus Gen Z. And so it is Gen Z Republicans, in addition to Gen Z-ers who are not Republicans, who are increasingly saying like, "This economy isn't working for me." And whether it's a combination of they are approaching graduation and the job market's not what they want, whether they feel like the affordability crisis is keeping home ownership and, you know, u- a whole variety of sort of life aspirations out of reach, um, or just a sense that there's not as much opportunity, um, for them to build the kind of career they want. I did some focus groups for The New York Times, uh, very recently where we talked to Gen Z white-collar job seekers, and it was, I mean, it was heart... It was, like, unsurprising but also just heartbreaking to hear these young people talk about what it is like to try to get a job in a moment when they f- for some of them, they went to college because they were told-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... "You need this credential" Now they've got debt, and they still send out 100 applications, and they get-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... five people to call them back, of which three then proceed to ghost them, and the other one-
- KSKara Swisher
Or make them do an AI interview.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
The other two are AI. Yeah, exactly.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Um, and so it was just... It, it felt... It f- there was a bleakness to it that was, was dispiriting. 'Cause normally when I talk to Gen Z folks, like, there's very much a, "Yeah, everything's terrible, but, like, our generation's gonna fix it" And it, it almost feels like right now, do people feel like they have any sense of control or ability to shape the future? Or is it just, like, bigger, more powerful stuff at play that they won't be able to just-
- KSKara Swisher
That they don't have control
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... put their heads down and, and work through it?
- 22:24 – 29:04
Cabinet Shake-up?
- KSKara Swisher
back. Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem may have just been the beginning. A Trump cabinet shake-up is reportedly in the works, though the president is denying it, which means it's happening. The White House official told Reuters to expect a targeted churn rather than a big, uh, dramatic reset, which this [laughs] feels like a corporation. Some of the names potentially on the chopping block, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, FBI Director Kash Patel, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, uh, Labor Secretary Lori, uh, DeRemer. As for Bondi's replacement, her deputy and Trump's former attorney, Todd Blanche, is currently serving as acting AG, and he's already trying to distance the DOJ from the Epstein files, telling Fox last week that all the files have been released. Talk a little bit a- about what's happening here in terms of, um, this, and does this create more of a, a voter dissatisfaction, or is it... I mean, this happens in every administration where there's a shake-up kind of thing. It's not a... And the last Trump administration was, was like a, what, like a manic episode of, of The Apprentice, of course, and people went in and out quite a lot. This is, this is... These people have had some staying power, and they're 100% less competent, so talk a little bit about that.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I think a shake-up can be a very good thing, especially if, like, let's take Kristi Noem. This is a great example of an issue... Immigration was an issue where Republicans and Donald Trump had a massive advantage that they haven't always had, but there was a real willingness to, like, America had moved to the right on these issues and said, "Do what you gotta do to get the border secure." And the way in which this was handled, culminating in, I mean, embarrassment is, is probably too light a way to frame it, but the events of the last couple of months in terms of, of ICE specifically-
- KSKara Swisher
Minnesota or whatever. Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Just this week with a, with a service member's wife being grabbed off a base, for example.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah, I, I, I just feel like for Donald Trump, you, you can't... Your political coalition can't survive if you don't have people coming to you going, "Well, at least he knows what to do about the border. At least he knows how to handle this issue." It's kind of a core piece of glue that holds different pieces of his coalition together, and if you lose that, what do you have? So by being able to sort of say, "Okay, I'm cutting this person. This person has been an embarrassment to me, and look, my numbers on this issue have fallen"It, it is good that he is n- at least not taking the position of like, "I'm just gonna... I'm gonna circle the wagons, and we're gonna say that everything's fine, and it's just the liberal media that's being mean."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So I think to some level, these shakeups are what Donald Trump's voters expect from him, especially those folks who are not diehard Republicans, but instead gravitated to him for some combination of the economy and immigration and vibes. L- that... Like, being able to show, "Yes, I want new people running the show. I have been unsatisfied with what they've been doing."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Well, that's his brand. Started with that, you're fired.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Ex- exactly. Exactly. So I don't know what that means about who would be next. I mean, I think about some of the names that were on your list, and some of them have done more that has publicly brought s- s- strife to the White House than others, and I think that's probably the thing that is animating this more. Like, I don't know to what extent his decision to s- to bid farewell to Kristi Noem wasn't about how ICE was handling the issue of immigration, or was it how she handled hearings and some of these embarrassing stories about, like, you know, the, the planes and God knows what else.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Right. Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
But so that's, that's sort of how I-
- KSKara Swisher
Honestly-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... evaluate this
- KSKara Swisher
... her husband's the coolest thing about her, but go ahead.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
[laughs] All of which is to say, I think if you wanna know, like, where the change would come next, I think the most important criteria is likely who, who is reflecting well on this White House, not who has, you know, something that's, like, got the Beltway in a stir, but it's not really reflecting-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... badly on him.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. So it has to be... So who would... Who, who does break through of these cabinet members with the voters, the ones that you're polling?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So I honestly think that if you asked voters which member of the cabinet is the most supportive of tariffs, I do not think very many would be able to name Howard Lutnick. Um, so, uh, uh, that... Again, I'm, I am not a Trump Kremlinologist, but to me, it does not seem as though there's anything on the outside that would be driving that in quite the same way as, say, Kash Patel at the FBI drinking with the hockey team or, you know, any number of cases that the FBI's been handling and questions about the effectiveness of, of that. Um, so again, don't know which way he would go first, but to me that seems to be the most-
- KSKara Swisher
Obvious
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... important variable, or most obvious variable.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Is, is are you looking like an idiot publicly to a wide range of people, in other words? Like, a lot of people. As opposed to, say, the labor secretary, who's just seems naughty, uh, in a really bad way kind of thing, 'cause we've had naughty cabinet members for- ever, from what I can glean and stuff. But it, but it doesn't break through with voters. More like Kash Patel drink downing the beer is a real bad visual, for example.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, and you know how Donald Trump feels about visuals.
- KSKara Swisher
Does-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Like, that that's-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... really, really, really important. The public image, do you look the part, um, and if you begin to fail on those dimensions, that's often when it's, it's time for... he's looking for somebody different.
- KSKara Swisher
So is that, is that a good thing? As you said, a shakeup isn't a bad thing, right? It shows you're, you know, you know, look busy, Jesus is coming kind of thing. Like, that kind of thing.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, yeah. I think es- es- especially because of what you said about his brand as the apprentice guy, I think the idea that you... I mean, remem- like, think about what he did with DOGE when he first came into office.
- 29:04 – 46:23
Prediction Markets vs. Polls
- KSKara Swisher
happening is the federal government is suing multiple states over attempts to ban betting on Kalshi and other platforms. Now, let's be clear, Donald Trump's children are part of this, um, are on the boards or advisors to both Polymarket and Kalshi. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is arguing that it has the sole authority, now that's how- what they're using to regulate these predictions markets. Meanwhile, Polymarket is apologizing after users were allowed to bet on the fate of the US pilots whose jet was downed in Iran, pretty loathsome, saying it do- did not meet their integrity standards. Incredible. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are now rolling out campaigns to attract female users, framing prediction markets as another way to be a #girlboss, which [laughs] by the way, girl boss is over, kids, boys. We've been talking a lot about these markets here on Pivot, and you and I have talked about it, and so I wanna play something Scott said a few weeks ago and get your thoughts. Let's listen.
- SGScott Galloway
These speculative markets, speculation markets, or prediction markets, have essentially put pollsters and, to a certain extent, investment banking analysts out of work because guess what? They're much-
- KSKara Swisher
Kind of. I, I would push back on that. I just met with a bunch of pollsters on this topic, but go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, they're... Uh, in my opinion, they're done. They-- If you look at, if you look at, if you look at the prediction market's record versus pollsters in the last election, the prediction markets kicked their ass.
- KSKara Swisher
All right, pollster, what's your response? I d- I was trying to defend you there. Um, talk about-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
[laughs]
- KSKara Swisher
... about what's happening with them and your thoughts on it and what you like and don't like about them. And, and, um, just so you know, uh, there's another possible nail in the coffin for polling. There's now something called Silicon Sampling that uses AI models to simulate, simulate survey responses, not real people. Um, talk a little bit what's happening here in the polling market.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Sure. So I have a lot of thoughts on both of these. Uh, first-
- KSKara Swisher
Okay
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... to Scott's point, I, I do not think that prediction markets are going to put polling out of business, one, because 99% of what pollsters do is notPolling that tries to track who is going to win an election. Like I know that's the most public thing that people see from our industry but 99% of it is message testing, strategy, model building. The sorts of things for which being within margin of error, meaning your result is within three points in either direction, like that's, that's okay. That's sort of understood.
- KSKara Swisher
Give me, give, give me an example. Just make it up. Just like you poll what?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So I, I can tell you about the polling we've done on... I've done some polling on prediction markets, um, where, you know, I'm asking to what extent are people using them? What are they using them for? And those are the kinds of things that are valuable for somebody who might be trying to decide, do I invest in one of these companies? Like w- if I'm gonna regulate them, what sort of regulatory approach should I take? Uh, it's the sort of thing where... Like I'll give you an example. In our poll, we found about one-third of people either bet on prediction markets, that's now the majority of them, or like use the data. Like they either they tune into it just for entertainment purposes or what have you. So if my poll shows 36% of people fall into that category, the real number, assuming that I've done my survey right, the real number could be a few points off in either direction, and that's not the end of the world. It still means my analysis is still useful. Directionally, it's telling us something interesting about thing- where things are going. I think this focus so s- exclusively on polling as a like crystal ball to tell me if an election is going to get won, won-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... by candidate A or candidate B just sort of misunderstands our industry. But the second thing is what is causing these prediction markets to give the predictions they are? So think about there was a, a, a man, um, I think he was based in France, who placed a huge bet in the last election that Donald Trump was gonna win. And afterwards, you know, he m- he makes this like six-figure sum off of his bet, and that's all great, and they ask him, you know, "How'd you do it?" And he said, "Oh, I commissioned a poll."
- KSKara Swisher
[laughs]
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Um, the polls are still an input-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... to what these prediction markets are doing. In a world without polls, your prediction market is running on vibes and fundraising numbers, which are fine, but polls are an extremely... They are a load-bearing pillar in what people think about what's going to happen in an election.
- KSKara Swisher
So, so, so predictions would be a trailing indicator? Or what, what... How do you look at that?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yes. So I, I think that in general... Well, I, I think when it comes to election results, they don't have to be a trailing indicator, but I think that polls are an input. They are, they are not the only input, so other things can change, right? My poll can say that so-and-so is gonna win the primary in Texas, but all of a sudden some new news story could break that shows that Ken Paxton or John Cornyn did something, you know, that w- could upend the race. Who knows?
- KSKara Swisher
It's usually Ken Paxton.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And then-
- KSKara Swisher
I don't know if this [laughs]
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And then the prediction market would be the leading indicator ahead of when the poll is going to capture that.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Um, but you still need the poll involved.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And that's also when I think about this whole synthetic-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... respondents, AI respondents.
- 46:23 – 56:19
OpenAI Acquires Tech Podcast
- KSKara Swisher
Kristen, we're back with more news. You just sort of talked about this, the idea of where you get your narrative and information from. It has to be good and wide. So OpenAI has acquired the tech news podcast, TBPN. The online talk show focuses by-the-minute analysis of tech news and interviews with top tech leaders. TBPN averages 70,000 viewers per episode across everything, and let me just say, they are tiny compared to Pivot and other things. Tiny, tiny, tiny. That said, it's become popular among a certain group of Silicon Valley power players who go on it because they wanna be licked up and down all day. Um, oh, I'm sorry, boys. Is that... Did I say that too wrong? Okay, sometimes you're spiky and fun, but really, it's pretty much a, a, to me, PR. Um, OpenAI says the show will stay editorially independent, which we do not believe. Um, talk about this idea of buying narratives when you, when you're thinking about it because, you know, a lot of people wanna, you know, h- you, you do polling so you have better narratives and craft messages. That's one of the things you do for people, is tell them how to craft their messages. Talk a little bit about this effort and, and, you know, that's in the backdrop of, um, of many company, many tech companies trying to buy into, uh, into, uh, various things like Paramount, et cetera.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So, uh, what this reminds me of is there's actually a, a piece out in today, which I guess we're... the day we're taping this, uh, New York Times. David Plouffe, who I think is very v- like, still one of the smartest minds on the Democratic side.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes, I love this piece. Please talk about this.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Uh, it was, it was... Yeah, this piece is essentially saying that everything is content creation now, that if you are running for office, if you are engaged in politics, the most important thing you need to be doing is creating content, that if you are relying on anybody else to get your message out but you, you are foolish, um, and that you need to essentially have a studio within your campaign headquarters where you are just nonstop producing content because everything now is, is that. Uh, I think that's really smart. Um, you know, I think about that in terms of, like, look at the media properties in the political space that are really, like, thriving and doing exciting stuff now, the, like, the pucks and the punch bowls and all of that. I mean, they're very focused on, like, we are constantly creating content. We're finding a million new channels to do it. Sometimes it's in-person events, sometimes it's digital, but it, it is a, like, always-on kind of approach, and I think companies realizing this, uh, is probably smart, although there's a d- there's a, a flip side to this, which isYou know, we've, we've been going through a moment in the last few years where it feels like, you know, everybody, everybody's got a new podcast, Kara.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Yes.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
You know, everybody's like, "Ah, I'm gonna create content. If you build it, they will come." And that's not true-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... at all. Lots of people can build podcasts that, or, you know, create content that sort of goes out into the ether to die.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And especially if it doesn't feel authentic, if it feels driven by a corporate narrative, it, it starts to lose some of what might make content great otherwise. So like I imagine-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... there are a bunch of candidates who could take Plouffe at, at his word and start doing what he says and would produce terrible content.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
It has to be like a-
- KSKara Swisher
It's not good and genuine. Yeah, you're right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yes.
- KSKara Swisher
100%. Yeah, so he... That was a really interesting piece, and I really, I like David. And it was absolutely true. Although it's kind of like, "No shit, Sherlock." [laughs] I was like, "What? You're kidding. The content's important?" And he-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
No, but see you-
- KSKara Swisher
You see what-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... you and I think like, "Oh yeah, no kidding," but it-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... it is truly-
- KSKara Swisher
Yes
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... this idea that politics is now about being always on media messaging non-stop.
- KSKara Swisher
Well, yes.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
That is actually something that is not-
- KSKara Swisher
Which is important
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... native to a lot of people
- KSKara Swisher
I think Donald Trump has proven that for many years, obviously. Now it's getting the, the, the show's getting a little old in the tooth right now and kinda crazy, but that's all right. It's a little like network at the very end, um, when Howard had some problems. Um, but, you know, you see AOC did it from the get-go, was very genuine to herself, and she's obviously talking her own book, but it's very effective. Same thing with Mamdani, who's been very good, and he's continuing to govern that way, if you notice all his really interesting... And they're good. They're good. They're fun, and they're, they're creative. Um, you don't have to agree with them to, to say, "Wow, look at that. That's really well done." Um, especially during snowstorm, he did a couple of good ones that were just sort of b- It wasn't political. It was just, "Here's how we're doing it," and they were funny and quirky. His whole thing, there was one he did the smile, where he has that weird smile, and they made f- his whole staff made fun of his smile. And I thought that was, it was based on the movie Smile, which was a horror movie, which was funny. It's just, just he's very on top of things, and so are a lot of, by the way, Republican. Some Republicans do a good job at it, uh, not, not as many. But Trump certainly, absolutely, for many years has done a really good job. I think the problem with these things is people don't realize tech has tried this a dozen times. Many years ago, Yahoo tried to do a news product, and that didn't work 'cause they weren't doing any original reporting or anything else. They were just mouthing stuff. Um, uh, Andreessen Horowitz famously had a blog and called me and said they were gonna beat me at my own game, and I'm like, "Good fucking luck." First of all, media's hard, and it doesn't make money. [laughs] Sorry. Like, you're, you're entering a really... Like, like, "What are you doing?" And it, well, it didn't work. They've tried a number of times, th- that particular group. And, you know, it's always sort of failed. AOL did it a little bit, like, around the edges, tried to, you know, to create some... And it just doesn't happen. So I think one of the things is I get that you feel more comfortable in these settings where people are a little bit like, "Your giant brain is so smart. Tell me how that works." And I think that has value, by the way. You know, it's, startup people are always interested in, "How did I do that," right? "How did you do that?" And they don't want any pushback. They just wanna hear your techniques, whatever, even if it's PR. But eventually it's not truthful, right, of, like, the real struggles companies have. And when you have a little friction with a reporter, it does create really interesting conversations, and the only person I would look to would be Apple's Steve Jobs. He kept coming back to be interviewed by me, even though I know I irritated him, right? Because it was an interesting conversation, and it would help him. It clarified things. Um, we were fair with him at the same time. I don't think we ever pulled any ridiculous, stupid, snarky moves. Um, but in a lot of ways I feel responsible for this kind of nonsense because they just don't wanna talk to anyone they consider difficult and would prefer to be... And I don't think that is the best outcome editorially. I just don't. I just don't think it becomes... I, I think there'll be a backlash, and they'll start talking to actual reporters that are fair. That's my feeling. But I don't know. Maybe I'm hoping. I don't really wanna talk to them anymore anyway, [laughs] so it doesn't matter in some level. But I don't know. We'll see. It's a small amount of money to pay for possible good PR in a new, fresh way. Uh-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Is it a small amount of money? I feel like the reporting was that it was not-
- 56:19 – 1:00:17
Grok Subscription Mandate
- KSKara Swisher
obviously banks and advisors are working on the SpaceX IPO deal. Are being required to buy subscriptions to Grok, Musk's terrible AI chatbot. Um, they, they're gonna do it anyway 'cause they'll do anything it takes. They'll tell you, [laughs] "Sure, we'll buy your shitty product if, if you'll give us the banks." Um, he's also asked them to advertise on X, was less insistent on that request. Obviously they're gonna all do it. Uh, that I'm not surprised by, but I'm just curious, have you done any polling on Elon now post... You know, he's now gonna be very wealthy again, once again, more wealthy than he was before. How, where is his polling? Have you done much on, on where he sits? 'Cause he's about to enter the political spectrum again quite significantly it looks like.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I mean, I still think that he has residual favorability from Republicans, who I think have by and large forgotten his-
- KSKara Swisher
Doge
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... v- well, it, the, I was gonna say the very big public falling out that he had with Trump-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... that got-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, right. Fair
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... very ugly, very, uh-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Quickly
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... quickly. Um, that, that all but seems to have been kind of memory holed at this point. Um, but, but there is still that lingering negativity from Democrats. It may not be as acute. I mean, I, I have not heard reports of like protests outside Tesla dealerships in the way that you had about a year ago. So it feels like the temperature has turned down, but it is not as though anybody has like converted back to liking him or not liking him. Wherever you were a year ago, you're probably still in about the same place.
- KSKara Swisher
So when, when you're a Republican getting money from him, it's worth it, correct now? Or is it a bad thing?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
[laughs]
- KSKara Swisher
'Cause he lost in Wisconsin. He lost in a lot of... His presence tends to be a problem for some people.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I think he is not as much of a potent lightning rod as he was a year ago when we were in the midst of Doge being in the news every single day, some new agency getting shut down or somebody getting fired or s- or something happening-
- KSKara Swisher
Some stupid thing he says
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... that was causing-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... causing some stir. You know, him showing up in the White House, him in the White House with one of his kids. You know, like those were... That's not happening anymore, and so I think him having less, him be- he is less of a lightning rod today than he was a year ago, so I, I think that would probably lessen any, you know, downside to having him-
- KSKara Swisher
Downside
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... support you or engage you.
- KSKara Swisher
Just give us the money. But he shouldn't act up again, correct, Greta?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I, as, last time I was on your show, I said like, "Less chainsaw, more Mars," and I stick to it. I think-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... to the extent that he has spent the last year doing less chainsaw and more Mars, I don't think that it's necessarily-
- KSKara Swisher
You did say that
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... won back anybody from the left, but I do think that the temperature has been turned down around him to where-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... he's a little less radioactive.
- KSKara Swisher
Less chainsaw, more Mars. That's what you gotta do. Build your fucking rockets, Elon. I've said that before, and, and I think you were absolutely right back then. All right, Kristen, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails. [upbeat music] Support for the show comes from DeleteMe. DeleteMe makes it easy, quick, and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. You don't have to be a public figure to be at risk of having your personal information stolen by bad actors. The terrifying reality is that we're all susceptible, and the impact of identity theft can be devastating. DeleteMe can help you protect your personal privacy or the privacy of your business from doxing attacks before sensitive information can be exploited. I have used DeleteMe for a while. I think i- it's really important to be aware of what's out there about you. It's really surprising, even someone like me who spends a lot of time protecting their privacy, how much information is out there, how much of it is bad, and how much is being compiled together. You really have to fight hard to keep your privacy, and DeleteMe is an excellent tool. Last year, The New York Times Wirecutter named DeleteMe their top pick for data removal services. Not a surprise. So what are you waiting for? Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe, now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to join deleteme.com/pivot and use the promo code PIVOT at checkout. The only way to get 20% off is to go to joindeleteme.com/pivot and enter the code PIVOT at checkout. That's joindeleteme.com/pivot, code PIVOT.
- 1:00:17 – 1:06:47
Wins and Fails
- KSKara Swisher
Okay, Kristen, let's hear some wins and fails. You go first.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
All right, well, we're gonna talk space. Um, and this is a w- mine is a win and a fail combined. A win is that as you and I are recording, probably right about, uh, now, Americans are flying around the backside of the Moon. That feels like the biggest possible win. The fact that these, that the rocket took off and it was fine and it would end up working is unbelievable, but the fail is the toilets do not seem to be staying in operation [laughs] on this.
- KSKara Swisher
[laughs]
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
This is a subject of great interest to my daughters. Uh-
- KSKara Swisher
Uh-huh
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... they are, they are like really, really, really trying to keep up on the what is the status of-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... the toilets o- on this, uh, Artemis... I think Orion might actually be the name of like the part that they are in. But, uh, so it's both a win and a fail.
- KSKara Swisher
I think NASA has shined itself up a little bit. It's always, it's been sucked away f- by Bezos and Musk, but I think NASA feels kinda cool. I think their social media is excellent.I think-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Oh, yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... Victor, Victor the pilot is such a hunk. Like, like all of them are, are, uh, and, and all the, the whole team are, are amazing I think in a lot of ways.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
God, they have a great inspirational message. I mean, just every time you hear them talk. And it doesn't feel like hyper media trained either, again, to what we were talking about earlier-
- KSKara Swisher
No
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... with like... It just feels like you found genuinely incredible people and are sending them to do an incredible thing on-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... behalf of humanity.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, I agree. I think they, they just are doing flawless, speaking of social media, flawless social media. I, I, I haven't seen one thing that I've... The pictures are beautiful. The, the, the enthusiasm, again, it doesn't feel cooked in some fashion. The fail is the, the, the continued sort of, um, uh, I know you, you, like you said, I'm not clutching my pearls, but come on. I think people are sick of this, and I think there's gonna be a significant backlash to politicians that... Look, I think there's a real opportunity for people to be funny and nice and, you know, sort of more open-minded rather than dunking, dunking, dunking. I, I just have this... I think what Trump is doing is, is the step too far, and e- I can't even believe I'm saying that because I, oh, I'm never that person who goes, "Oh, you're kidding. Can you believe what he said?" I always believe what he says 'cause I think he's like that. Um, but I do think people are tiring of it, and, uh, I, I think even though they're sloughing it off, they're not sloughing it off. They're, you know, "Ugh, that's him." I think there's more... It's like, I'm tired of hearing this now, and I think there's a real opportunity for politicians to make people feel better, like I know in, in political life in general, and not... But, and also not, um, do it in a stupid way where you just pretend it's not happening, like that kind of thing. So I do think that's been a real fail, and I do think it's a pro- it's a bigger problem than people think. That's one. My win is the Netflix documentary Dynasty: The Murdochs. Um, it's about the Murdoch empire. I found out stuff about Rupert Murdoch that was fascinating. I thought it was incredibly... Uh, Liz Garbus directed it. I thought it was a terrific documentary. I learned a lot about this very s- I thought it was very fair to the family. At the same time, um, sad to watch, you know, this kind of fall apart, and I'm endlessly fascinated by Rupert Murdoch. But, uh, you know, he's getting, he's getting on in years and everything. But I do think it was a really interesting documentary, um, and not just 'cause I'm in, although I think I'm spectacular in it. No, I'm kidding. [laughs] No, the people who are mostly, who've done all the reporting at the Times, um, did an amazing job, and so I recommend it. I recommend watching it. It's... He's, he's a unique political figure, as you know, but I learned a lot from the documentary. I don't know. Have you seen it?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I have not.
- KSKara Swisher
You should.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I will say the, the last movie that I watched that referenced Rupert [laughs] Murdoch was I re-watched The Devil Wears Prada from 2006-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh. Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... in preparation for, you know, the, the rebirth, the Two-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... Two Devils-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, that's coming up
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... Too Curious-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... that's coming up.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Uh, and he-
Episode duration: 1:06:48
Install uListen for AI-powered chat & search across the full episode — Get Full Transcript
Transcript of episode N04qoE8X0Ys
Get more out of YouTube videos.
High quality summaries for YouTube videos. Accurate transcripts to search & find moments. Powered by ChatGPT & Claude AI.
Add to Chrome