PivotScott Galloway Predicts a $10 Trillion Market Wipeout | Pivot
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
65 min read · 12,625 words- 0:00 – 1:02
Intro
- SGScott Galloway
This isn't military action, this is a war. There is going to be-
- KSKara Swisher
It's an excursion, the word he's using now. It's an excursion.
- SGScott Galloway
Like a field trip?
- KSKara Swisher
[upbeat music] Hi, everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
- SGScott Galloway
And I'm Scott Galloway.
- KSKara Swisher
Scott, did we have a good time in Minneapolis?
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, that was wonderful, and thank you to the, the wonderful people of Minneapolis. I thought it was great. Uh, I, I've never... It, you know what was really in- The, the community or, um, you know, maybe we got a, a not a representative sample. I'd like to think we got a representative-
- KSKara Swisher
We did
- SGScott Galloway
... the community seems very unified right now.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, absolutely. People drove from North Dakota. There was-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah
- KSKara Swisher
... somebody from Iowa.
- SGScott Galloway
Duluth, wherever that is, or Iowa.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
We had a lawyer from Iowa come.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Yep. Judge.
- SGScott Galloway
By the way, shout out. We know who you are. There's this wonderful woman who's a lawyer in family court.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
She commutes seven hours a week, and she said that-
- KSKara Swisher
Judge
- SGScott Galloway
... uh, excuse me, she a judge, yeah. And she said we're her, we're her best friends.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Yeah, it was great, and people were great. Anyway, we've got a lot
- 1:02 – 20:01
Iran War Oil Shock
- KSKara Swisher
to get to today. I'm gonna dig in. First, the war in Iran is sending oil prices on a wild ride this week and creating what the International Energy Agency says is, quote, "The largest supply disruption in the history of the [laughs] global oil market." Okay, that's kind of something.
- SGScott Galloway
There we go.
- KSKara Swisher
As of this recording, oil is still very high, slowly coming down from over $100 a barrel after ships were attacked in the Persian Bal- Gulf. There's also s- attacks still going on. Gulf pr- uh, gas prices continue to climb as well, and just remember, it's not just gas prices. Every price goes up when gas goes up. The IEA's 32 member countries are releasing a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to counter the chaos, which means we aren't gonna feel this yet. Uh, I interviewed, uh, Senator Warner yesterday, and he was noting that. Um, Trump has tried to calm markets. He keeps trying to, to do this, to bring these oil prices down by words, saying the war is, quote, "Very complete," only to later announce, "We haven't won enough." Oil prices also plunged after Energy Secretary Chris Wright incorrectly posted that US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, so that was a problem. The post was deleted within minutes. Was enough to move markets and wipe out m- uh, million, billion, million dollar trades. Um, this is such a taco. This is the greatest taco of all, I think. And even if the war in Iran ends soon, returning the Strait of Hormuz to typical traffic could take one to three months. We're gonna see reverberations of this ridiculous situation, um, the way he's handling it and the way he's not... It seems all over the place. Um, and also to, to add to the, this kind of mess there, the initial findings of a military investigation say that US was responsible for that deadly Tomahawk missile strike on the Iranian elementary school. It's actually causing a lot of strife within MAGA, by the way. The report notes officers li- and everywhere else, n- normal people and MAGA. Um, the report notes officers likely used outdated information to label the school as a military target. Trump has tried to put the blame on Iran earlier this week, claiming they also have Tomahawks, which everyone thought was ridiculous. And when asked about the military report on Wednesday, Trump said he knew nothing about it. Um, we'll get to the, the photography scandal at the Pentagon, but talk a little bit about what's going on with oil prices and this, this school, which is just... I feel like we should take responsibility when we make an error, such a terrible error. But go ahead. Start, just go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
Well, I'll go in re- I'll go in reverse order. When you're handling a crisis, and this is a crisis-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... the death of civilians, especially children, is obviously pretty ugly. You acknowledge the issue, you take responsibility, and you try and over-correct, and they've done nothing of the sort. And there is i- in a war, and this is a war, this isn't military action, this is a war. There is going to be-
- KSKara Swisher
It's an excursion, the word he's using now. It's an excursion.
- SGScott Galloway
[sighs] Whatever that means, an excursion. God, like a f-
- KSKara Swisher
I went on a bike excursion.
- SGScott Galloway
Like a field trip? Like we have to-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, exactly. [laughs] My daughter went on an excursion to a theater.
- SGScott Galloway
Except he didn't get Congress's approval the day before-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... that, that he could go on the excursion. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... you know, it's a tragedy. Uh, they just made a bad situation worse. First off, they look incompetent by saying that it might have been a Tomahawk from Iran. Iran doesn't have Tomahawks. So i-i-it looks like, okay, I'm not willing to own up to this. I mean, there's not a good answer, but there's a reasonable answer here, and that is-
- KSKara Swisher
We're sorry
- SGScott Galloway
... you know, the, the... [sighs] Yeah, this... We decided to go on f- you know, with military action. This is a, this is a group of people who killed 30,000 of its own people. W- war is going to have collateral damage. We screwed up. We take responsibility. These are the following steps we're putting in place to make sure it doesn't happen again. And take responsibility for it.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And it would've been not over, but it would've-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- SGScott Galloway
... been acceptable. Instead, it's like, no, it was Iran's fault?
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, it just doesn't-
- KSKara Swisher
Or I didn't know.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. Or, oh, uh, is this-
- KSKara Swisher
PEGSS was the same way. It was, it was... And was angry when people asked about it, which is, uh, the, everything wrong in the response and everything wrong in the mistake, but you're right, absolutely.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, and the, the real... I mean, we're just, we're just starting to see... [sighs] So I was speaking to a kid and, um, and I said, "What, what... You know, where do you wanna be in five years?" I always ask young men that. "Where do you wanna be in five years?" And this kid said, uh, "I'd really love to have my own auto repair shop focusing on EVs."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
I said, "Okay, well then let's reverse engineer from those things. Like, what kind of skills do you need to acquire? What kind of job certification? What kind of capital or money would you need to, um, uh, start something like this?"
- 20:01 – 29:29
Anthropic Sues Pentagon
- KSKara Swisher
order to formally ban Anthropic across the federal government, which is likely illegal. The Defense Department CTO, Emil Michael, and let me just say I covered him, and he's a, a toadying bully, just said on CNBC that Anthropic would, quote, "pollute the agency's supply chain." We've only done this for foreign companies, just so you know, this kind of behavior. All this comes as Anthropic is officially suing the Pentagon for labeling it a supply chain risk, effectively blacklisting the company from federal contracts. This has never been done to an American company. Uh, Anthropic argues the government overstepped its authority and violated the company's First Amendment rights, and now Microsoft is getting in the mix. The company threw its support behind Anthropic this week, urging the federal court to temporarily block the Pentagon's supply risk designation in an amicus brief. Uh, Microsoft warned, uh, that, uh, the unprecedented m-move would have, quote, "broad negative ramifications for the US tech industry," and they're damn right. Scott, before we go further, I want to play a prediction you made last week. Let's listen.
- SGScott Galloway
My prediction is no, and that is Dario Amodei has given license and permission to CEOs to say no. And in the next thirty days, you are going to see a raft of CEOs find their testicles and start saying no to this administration.
- KSKara Swisher
So you were right, Scott. Uh, so let's talk about that, them saying no. And it's not just Microsoft. Thirty-seven AI researchers at OpenAI and Google, not the companies themselves, also filed a brief supporting Anthropic. Um, you know, I-I'm gonna just very quickly comment. The, the-- This-- What the government's doing here is really u-unprecedented. It's a disagreement with a company, and instead of just disagreeing and moving on, they are attacking them in the most ridiculous of ways, trying to make an example of Anthropic and really hurt their business. I need you all to understand Emil Michael's role here because th-th-these people all have other interests and agendas that have to do with their previous life in Silicon Valley and their future life in Silicon Valley. And Emil Michael's always, as I said, been a toadying bully to powerful men, and this is what he's doing here. Um, and he's not a, he is not a, um, a player that is in any way, um, uh, you know, sort of n-neutral. He's not doing things for you and I in, in this government. He's doing things in his own self-interest, if-- would be my guess. And so the, the attacks on Anthropic, right behind him is all manner of competitors of Anthropic that are using the federal government to, uh, hurt a company that decided not to want to do something, and I'm glad Microsoft, uh, stood up for them. Scott?
- SGScott Galloway
I think this is the biggest story in tech. And so just a quick, a quick recap. Um, Anthropic had basically two asks of the Pentagon, um, and both pretty narrow. They didn't want, uh, Claude to be used for fully autonomous weapons, meaning AI, not humans, making final lethal, uh, targeting decisions, which seems reasonable. And the second one was no use of Claude for mass domestic surveillance of Americans. And the Pentagon responded that it does not intend to use Claude for those purposes but refused to contractually commit to that, arguing that it, it can't lead tactical operations by exception and that legality is the Pentagon's responsibility. A-and then on the-- Uh, about two and a half weeks ago, Trump posted on Truth Social, directing every federal agency, directing every federal agency to immediately cease all use of Anthropic's technology. And then Hegseth designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk. Okay, that is-- Th-that's a label which was, which has been reserved for foreign adversaries-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, I just said that. Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... a-and companies linked to the Chinese and Russian government. Well, I'm saying it again, Kara.
- KSKara Swisher
All right. Okay, fine. [chuckles] You just repeated what I just said.
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, the supply chain, the supply chain risk status, i-it-- First off, that's-- This isn't just the government saying, "Okay, y-you don't wanna work with us, we don't wanna work with you."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
If they say-- If they label them as a supply chain risk, then already, uh, a hundred plus enterprise companies have reached out to Anthropic and said, "We may not be able to use you." A financial services company pauses negotiations regarding a fifty million dollar contract. A pharmaceutical firm, financial technology company, I mean, they can't... This really is an ex... When you're labeled sort of an enemy of state, this is equivalent of like you're a corporate enemy of state or threat. I'd say threat.Anthropic has now filed a lawsuit against the Pentagon saying that Congress's procurement laws don't authorize blacklisting a US company over protected speech. That's what this is. They get, they get to work with or not work with who they want, and the supply chain designation is, is just not, it's just not legal, and it sets a dangerous precedent for any American company.
- KSKara Swisher
They will lose. Pe- most people feel that-
- SGScott Galloway
The government will lose, I think
- KSKara Swisher
... but it will have an effect. Yes. Yes. The government will lose, but it'll still have the effect. This is a Trump thing. He creates a real problem, whether it's Anthropic or-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, and companies won't work with them until they figure it out
- KSKara Swisher
... and then, and then it causes damage, just like-
- SGScott Galloway
Right
- KSKara Swisher
... they've done at, you know, when they fire all of Voice of America. Now they've lost in court, and Kerry Lake is an idiot, but it's already caused damage and caused damage to it, and that's the goal, is they're gonna push it legally as far as they can, and then they'll be stopped. But by the time they're stopped, Anthropic is badly affected. And if you all don't think this is a Silicon Valley rumble happening here, it's all in the self-interest of private companies who have an interest in slowing Anthropic down. And if you look at the links between Emil Michael and the rest of these, these, these clowns-
- SGScott Galloway
So they have financial interest in competitors?
- KSKara Swisher
Just there's... Yes, they do. And so this is a way that Silicon Valley, the penny-- Silicon Valley used to ignore government for the most part, and then the penny dropped that they're easy to pay for and that they can do their competition with each other in the federal government by pretending they're working for us as people or getting spots, putting their, putting their people in the various spots, right? That will cause it. This is a Silicon Valley corporate beef happening. It's-- That is what's occurring here. And-
- SGScott Galloway
The one that's been most outspoken, and I'm trying to connect his financial interest, which I'm sure is driving his rhetoric, is David Sacks.
- KSKara Swisher
David Sacks, Marc Andreessen. Please understand there are shadow people behind these actions that you need to pay attention to, and Trump is a, you know, sort of a useful idiot. I'm, I'm sure they make fun of Trump behind his back. Um, but, you know, it's all in their economic self-interest to hurt this company. And they couldn't hurt them by being better, so this is how they're doing it. This is what they're doing. It's really-
- SGScott Galloway
But it comes down... Th-this is the, this is the fulcrum that determines if companies continue to show some backbone. And by the way, good for Satya Nadella, um, showing some backbone here at, at again, risk. So the, the Kalshi is saying that Anthropic's li- the likelihood Anthropic wins the case is seventy-two percent. In the meantime, companies will say, "Hey, that site license we were about to sign with you, Anthropic, we're just gonna wait. We're apologize. This is terrible."
- KSKara Swisher
"We love you. We think your technology's great."
- SGScott Galloway
"You're great, but we can't-"
- KSKara Swisher
Yep.
- SGScott Galloway
"We, we, we can't sign this contract right now." To, to your point, Microsoft and a group of twenty-two retired senior military officers have filed amicusus, amicus briefs in support of Anthropic and its lawsuit. But what's interesting is that consumers are speaking. The enterprise is running, but consumers are running towards Anthropic. Downloads of the Claude app spiked more than seventy-five percent after Trump prompted federal agencies to stop using Anthropic. And on the flip side, uninstalls of ChatGPT, uh, ChatGPT's mobile app spiked roughly three hundred percent the day after Trump's proclamation. So the, the, the question is, who wins in the mind of Anthropic's board here? The fear and the stasis that has been created in the enterprise market, or consumers running towards a company they think is finally showing some backbone?
- KSKara Swisher
I think it's damaging. I think this is the t- this is such a Trump way to do this, is create-
- SGScott Galloway
Well, Anthropic's more enterprise, unfortunately. [chuckles]
- KSKara Swisher
Create... I, I know. Create chaos-
- SGScott Galloway
Right
- 29:29 – 34:48
Grammarly’s “Expert Review”
- KSKara Swisher
stealing, essentially. Grammarly launched an expert review AI feature that gives editing suggestions supposedly inspired by well-known writers and journalists. Casey Newton discovered the tool was attributing advice to him and others even though they never agreed to participate. The feature even generated advice under the name of a certain tech journalist, Kara Swisher. Um, i- they've, they've stopped that now. They've gotten, they, they pulled back on it, apparently, but what an incredible bunch of information and identity thieves. I don't know what to say. Anytime these people can steal, they steal. They're such shoplifters. I don't know your thoughts.
- SGScott Galloway
Well, it goes back to this mindset, and I thought one of the... I think there's looking glasses into people's souls.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
How they treat their pets, how they treat service staff-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... is sort of a, a, you know, when is their guard down? When are-
- KSKara Swisher
Yep
- SGScott Galloway
... there are certain tells, right?
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And one of the tells that was really frightening when Sam Altman was asked about the energy consumptionOf AI. He said, "What people don't take into account is the amount of energy it takes and the amount of investment and resources it takes to get a human to a point where it can make logical decisions and engage in critical thinking."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
He said, "If you look at how much energy and input and resources it takes to raise a child such that it can get to a point where it can make decisions-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... AI is better." I found that so nihilistic-
- KSKara Swisher
Me too
- SGScott Galloway
... and so inhuman because what Silicon Valley, or at least some of the individuals we talk a lot about, don't realize is that we try and get ROI economically such that we can make low ROI investments in relationships and people we love. I, I'm not getting, I am not getting an ROI back from my children on any sort of economic level. I-
- KSKara Swisher
Well, you use a lot of energy. I'm wondering if we should use as much energy for you as we do, but go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
Well, but the, the whole point, the whole shooting match-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... of an economy and relationships and satisfaction and purpose and some sort of spiritual sense of calm and, and like your life mattered, is that you do engage in productive, you know, pro- productive economic or domestic labor such that you can invest that in other people. [chuckles] And you may or may not get a return, uh, but the point is the return you get is you're so invested in something that you, you... your life has meaning. The, the whole point is that you create value such that you can, you can, you can invest that value in relationships, and for most people, the most rewarding place of investment, where quite frankly they don't get anything resembling an economic ROI, is in children. And to look at it on that level is like, okay, you don't understand what it is to be a mammal or a human. And, and also the notion that you can spend 50 years of your life professionally working your ass off, staying late, starting in the mailroom at The Washington Post-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... as you did, such that you have a voice, a reputation, a twist of phrase, an ability to string words together that compels people to action or provides insight, and then they can come in and just adopt that 50 years-
- KSKara Swisher
Yep
- SGScott Galloway
... or piggyback on it.
- KSKara Swisher
That piggyback, steal it, really.
- SGScott Galloway
I- i- is-- Like I, if I type in, "Give me five jokes on this," or, or, "Give me a view on the oil price," and I put, "In my voice," it does a really good job because what it's doing is stealing from everything I have ever written-
- KSKara Swisher
Right
- SGScott Galloway
... said, or done.
- KSKara Swisher
That is correct.
- SGScott Galloway
And so the music industry did this correctly. It said, "Okay, if we're KROQ," which is awesome, the best radio station-
- 34:48 – 47:31
Chatbots Help Plan Violent Attacks
- KSKara Swisher
which has been attacked in all the-- and its cr- a-and its founder have been attacked legally by Elon Musk, and the federal government now in his, at his behest, um, tested 10 major-- They, they're keeping going, though. They don't care. Tested 10 major AI chatbots and found out 8 out of 10 were willing to help plan a violent attacks like school shootings, bombings, or assassinations. Researchers posed as a 13-year-old boys, as 13 little boys, showing how easily minors could get guidance on weapons, locations, and strategies. Only Anthropic's Claude and Snapchat's My AI consistently refused to assist in planning attacks, and only Claude attempted to dissuade the users. DeepSeek wished the user happy and safe shooting. And on that note, a lot of you have been writing in about a story in Canada. Earlier this year, an 18-year-old gunman opened fire at a school in, in Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, killing eight people. Let's listen to a clip from a listener.
- SPSpeaker
I am calling because it seems to be that there is a connection now between the shooter and ChatGPT. The shooter was flagged by ChatGPT several months ago regarding some of, uh, their behavior online. ChatGPT didn't report it, which is one of the reasons why I am leaving this message, to see what your thoughts are
- KSKara Swisher
On that. OpenAI is now being sued by the parent of the child who was injured in the shooting. I-- As you know, I've been at this for years, especially around kids, but it's jumped into people. Um, the most recent, uh, one of the most recent shootings, it was, it was this suicide was like an adult was, was changed by these chatbots. I cannot... Let's stop calling them chatbots. What an adorable word for synthetic beings, um, which-- who don't, who don't-- are not bound by legal... Like, if you're a lawyer and you did this, you'd go to jail. If you're an analy- if you're a, you know, a psychologist and you did this, you'd go to jail. If you were a person and you did this, you would go to jail. [chuckles] Like, all of the people go to jail. They're willing to assist in violent attacks, and they're not doing anything to rein it in. And it's not just kids, it's, it's everything. And again, the only one that is doing the right thing is Claude. And so-- and this is Anthropic, and this is the company. I'm not doing an ad for Claude here, but they have at least some-- And I think they should be regulated too. But I can't tell you how incandescent I am about the way these people try to take every p- bit for themselves, and they do not care the damage they are creating. And I, I, I'm gonna keep talking about this until Congress steps in and does something about it. You don't work for those rich people. You do not work for them. You-- And, and I, I'm with T-Telerik. Enough with these people. So go ahead. I just ranted.
- SGScott Galloway
Well, I, I think it's important to draw a distinction between potentially creating some sort of psychosis that leads to self-harm or harm against others through overuse of, of AI or any other digital platform. I think that's a separate study that needs to be done, and without the interference of the massive money and lies and, and owned bought research that these, these firms will do. I think this is different. I think this is whether the federal government needs to put in place laws and incentives such that if a private organization or corporation receives information that this person might be on the verge of committing an act of violence, if they have a responsibility to report it to the authorities immediately. And I think they do. I'm not a privacy person. I'm not suggesting we go to Minority Report where we arrest them before they've committed a crime. But at, at my school o- or... [sighs] So, uh, my school in Florida, where my kids went, at another school, uh, and we, we all sh-shared information when I was involved with the school about these very difficult situations. A kid was drawing very, um, disturbing images of gun violence. And so the school felt like it had an obligation to report it, and then the FBI went to the house, and the FBI said, "Are there any guns in the house?"
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And I think that was the right thing to do.
- KSKara Swisher
You're right. That-
- SGScott Galloway
And-
- KSKara Swisher
Makes sense to me
- SGScott Galloway
... if you notice, s- there was a video [chuckles] that went viral on Snap. A teacher put out a Snap saying that she wanted to kill these kids, and it immediately-- The cops showed up and said, "Uh, did you put-- Did you say this? Are you having any sort of mental issue right now? You need to go home, and we need to understand what is going on with you and if you-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... have access to guns before we let you back into a school."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And the same is true here.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
That if you are going to monetize this type of information, and you understand it so-- you can interpret it so well that you can create a prompt that keeps them on another second, another minute, or serves them the exactly right auto insurance ad, then in exchange for that economic benefit and what is clearly demonstrated ability to know what's going on with that person, if you see any evidence that that person might be capable of creating this type of crime, you have an obligation. You-- Bartenders, the bar, if a bartender continues to serve people alcohol, observing that that person is really drunk, and then that person-
- KSKara Swisher
Yep. A very good analogy
- SGScott Galloway
... gets in a car and kills someone-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... the bar is liable.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- SGScott Galloway
So if they have such incredible targeting, such unbelievable information, they can clearly tell that, okay, this individual is getting maps-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... and, and identification and information is basically digitally casing-
- KSKara Swisher
This is worrisome. We should investigate is what you're saying. This is worrisome
- SGScott Galloway
... a, a, a school, then immediately a message goes out to the local authorities saying, "Here is exactly what this person said. We have a judge involved. You get the order." And boom, y- they're in the house asking this person questions. I'm not saying they arrest them. They haven't done anything yet.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. Right.
- SGScott Galloway
But i-i-
- KSKara Swisher
They would argue this is surveillance. They-- But of course, they don't mind selling surveillance.
- SGScott Galloway
They're surveilling u- they're surveilling us to serve us ads. [laughs]
- 47:31 – 57:30
Barry Diller’s CNN Vision
- KSKara Swisher
about wanting to buy CNN and what he would do with it. In a new interview, Diller says i- uh, CNN hasn't been managed optimally and had enormous inf- and, and it's, has enormous potential to influence. He says he told Warner Brothers CEO David Zazoff all this. Let's listen.
- SPSpeaker
I said to him, "I don't think you're programming... I, I don't think it's being optimally programmed. I don't think it's competitive." Now, by the way, the facts, uh, support that, uh, meaning that its ratings have declined, its revenue has declined. Still is quite profitable, but-
- SGScott Galloway
How would you alter it?
- SPSpeaker
Oh, in every way, look, feel, and see, every way. And I mean, I hope I get the chance. I don't think I will, but I hope I do.
- KSKara Swisher
Um, I'm not sure when this was, but I, I, I texted him. Um, he, he said, "That's not happening." [laughs] He said, "Not that, now that the Ellisons have it." Um, and they-- And he cor- quite correctly, and I happen to know this, they're gonna combine CNN and CBS. Um, he doesn't think he, he has a chance. I would love to work for [laughs] Barry Diller. Even-- He's much more conservative than I am, but, um, I would certainly love... Uh, he's such a good programmer. He's such an interesting... I mean, he does love journalism, even if he gets mad at it sometimes. He's someone I, I appreciate in that regard. Um, and it would... [laughs] I wrote him, I said, "Can you please?" And he's like, "There's no way." Uh, so I can, I can knock this one out of the water. He can't do it. Unless, please, Ellisons, sell it to Barry Diller. Uh, please, that would be great. So any thoughts?
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, I would love to see Barry Diller partner with Jeff Zucker-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... and a private equity firm. And I think there's more, a greater likelihood than people believe that the Ellisons might say, "This is too big a headache. We might just sell c- uh, combine CBS and CNN to someone else." Because I think that, I'm not sure, and maybe I'm being naive here, I'm not sure they're as Machiavellian as people think about trying to control the world. Um, uh, uh, I don't know, but maybe they have some grand vision for how they integrate it into TikTok. But I, I can't imagine Larry Ellison, as smart as he is, isn't gonna say, "This is gonna be more headache than it's worth."
- KSKara Swisher
No, they wanted the studios. I, I, I, I agree. They're, they're not quite as Machiavellian. They, they, they're, they're just opportunistic, I would say. I, I, you know-
- SGScott Galloway
Well, they're, they're-- I think they're-
- KSKara Swisher
David Ellison was q- was democratic-
- SGScott Galloway
You're, you're the third richest man in the world-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... by focusing on, on economics.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
And, and I think that... Anyways, I think there's a shot here.
- KSKara Swisher
CNN makes a lot of money. Diller is correct. It makes a ton.
- SGScott Galloway
It's high margins, but-
- KSKara Swisher
High margins
- SGScott Galloway
... I did some analysis here, 'cause I just wanted to show you, like, w-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... one, talk about some numbers at cable news. And I spent a decent amount of time last night, uh-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... on AI-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... uh, looking at ratings and viewership. And essentially what I did was, just to give you a sense for-
- KSKara Swisher
Please
- SGScott Galloway
... the ecosystem, and also, I never miss a chance to make Pivot look good.
- KSKara Swisher
[laughs] It is good.
- SGScott Galloway
I looked at gross viewership. That is the number, uh, or listenership. That's the number of people who watch a program-
- 57:30 – 1:05:18
Predictions
- KSKara Swisher
is it? What is it? Oh, one thing. I predict we're gonna have a great time at South by Southwest. All right, that's my prediction.
- SGScott Galloway
That's what you're predicting?
- KSKara Swisher
As always.
- SGScott Galloway
All right. So my prediction is essentially, um, uh, I think the markets this year are gonna go down, uh, dangerously. I think, I think we're-
- KSKara Swisher
Uh-oh
- SGScott Galloway
... I think we're on the precipice of, like, a $10 trillion wipeout.
- KSKara Swisher
Whoa.
- SGScott Galloway
Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Really?
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
Tell all.
- SGScott Galloway
Well, not... And by the way, I get this wrong all the time. This is not financial advice, but I don't think it's from Iran. It's from what comes after Iran. Um, and this is, this is the chain reaction here. Uh, I don't think oil is gonna... I think oil is not gonna be at 150 bucks, but it's gonna be, it's, it's gonna be sustainably higher. It's gonna be elevated through the rest of the year, and inflation in some markets reignites. The Fed can't cut rates. They're trapped, um, to inspire the economy 'cause they're worried about inflation. I think corporate earnings are really impaired as consumers stop spending, uh, because some of them will be paying five bucks a gallon for gas, and their 401 [k] will start to decline. And Q2 earnings season becomes bad, and then what CEOs do when things are sort of bad is they throw in the kitchen sink, and they'll make it look like a bloodbath just to get all the-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... bad shit out.
- KSKara Swisher
That's a good idea, actually.
- SGScott Galloway
But the real contagion-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... uh, here is gonna be from emerging markets.
- KSKara Swisher
Uh-huh.
- SGScott Galloway
I think there's a decent chance that Pakistan and Egypt default-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, wow
- SGScott Galloway
... and as well as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
Dollar-denominated debt, very energy-dependent, very fragile economies because they all, they all... There's this domino effect in those markets because they can't afford oil imports, and their dollar-denominated debt just becomes unpayable. And then the real downward spiral starts. European banks holding that emerging d- market debt start announcing write-downs. Um, foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, all hugely exposed. Credit spreads blow out, and we get sort of a, not the s- to the same extent, but we get an '08 style which bank is next moment, except this time it's happening while the U.S. is fighting a war we started for no reason.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, other than-
- KSKara Swisher
It's an excursion, Scott. It's an excursion.
- SGScott Galloway
Well-
- KSKara Swisher
I'm teasing you. It's a war
- SGScott Galloway
... and well, that's the mistake here is it-
Episode duration: 1:05:18
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