Swing State Polls, Celebrity Endorsements, and Gen Z Voters | Pivot

1. 0:00 – 15:00

   Jon, we're back and…

   1. KSKara Swisher0:00

      Jon, we're back and we're talking about the presidential election, and we have a special guest joining us and a Jon Favreau super fan, Louie Swisher. Louie, come on on.

   2. LSLouie Swisher0:09

      Hello.

   3. KSKara Swisher0:10

      He's at NYU and he's studying abroad, and so he gets an upfront, uh, and personal look at politics Argentinean style, which is a lot going on here. But let's start with some polling. Uh, the latest numbers are out and it's not great news for Joe Biden. Former President Donald Trump is leading the, President Joe Biden in six out of seven swing states, according to the Wall Street Journal's new poll. Trump has a multipoint overall lead in these states and increases to double digits when it comes to questions about the economy, inflation, and immigration. Biden does beat Trump on abortion rights, an issue we'll discuss more in a bit. Uh, Jon, let's start with you on these numbers, 'cause Louie has a perspective that I think is really interesting, but let's talk... uh, let, why don't you talk about what do you think about these numbers and, uh, why Biden doesn't get credit for the economy?

   4. JFJon Favreau0:54

      So, I think, caveat, right, any single poll you can't freak out over too much. Uh, but if you throw it in the average, I think the averages right now show Trump ahead by about a point, and then if you go to the swing states, he's ahead of about four in Arizona, two to three Michigan, three Nevada. It's about tied in Wisconsin and it's almost tied in Pennsylvania as well. Um, so not great for Biden, uh, but it's early. I guess that's... so if you want reasons for optimism, (laughs) it-

   5. KSKara Swisher1:25

      Mm-hmm.

   6. JFJon Favreau1:25

      ... is early, so the numbers can change. Um, I do think that the reason to your question about the economy, I think when you go through inflation, uh, even though the rate of inflation has come down, prices are still high, and I think for a lot of, uh, people who were, you know, struggling even before, uh, inflation, having higher prices, uh, you don't necessarily notice yet that your wages are also going up. And so you're still... you know, it's a $12 hamburger and it's not a $13 hamburger anymore, but you're still pissed that it used to be cheaper, uh, and I don't think... I don't think that's gone away yet. Now, the good news is I think consumer sentiment, economic sentiment continues to rise, and so, um, and you're starting to see in the polls views of the economy get a little bit better as well. So it's slow going and obviously anything can happen between now and November, but it- it is heading in the right direction, but I do think that people are still pretty upset over inflation.

   7. KSKara Swisher2:21

      So what did... when you saw these polls, what did you think? Oh, Jesus, it's continuing, it doesn't change, it hasn't changed yet all?

   8. JFJon Favreau2:28

      Yeah.

   9. KSKara Swisher2:28

      And how can this guy have such a great lead?

   10. JFJon Favreau2:30

       Yeah. So I think there's a few reason. There's people who are still up- there's people still upset about high prices. Um, there is... I think the fact that Trump is now the challenger really helps him because he is comfortable in that role, and, you know, when Joe Biden ran in 2020, Joe Biden didn't have a record that everyone knew and was pissed about as president, and Biden now has a record. And to the extent that people are upset about high prices, to the extent that they feel like, you know, they're upset about immigration, they're upset about... uh, they just... the general... Gaza, there's a general feeling that the sort of the world is out of control kind of thing, and the president, the incumbent always gets the- the lion's share of the blame for that. And so I think he's struggling with that. I also think memories are short, uh, which is why you see Trump get all these, like, retrospectively high... higher approval ratings from his first term (laughs) , um, than anyone would expect. Uh, I do think that the more we see of Trump and the more we hear of Trump, um, from Trump, uh, during this campaign, his numbers will sort of settle back to where they were when he was president. Uh, at least that's the hope. That's what the Biden campaign is hoping as well. Um, and so... yeah. And so I think that's part of the party. And then, of course, I think Biden's other big challenge is third-party t- threats.

   11. KSKara Swisher3:49

       Third-party threats.

   12. JFJon Favreau3:49

       Um, because Trump has a- a, uh, low ceiling but a high floor-

   13. KSKara Swisher3:54

       Mm-hmm.

   14. JFJon Favreau3:55

       ... and so he really has never been able to hit 50 in all the times he's run, but-

   15. KSKara Swisher4:00

       Mm-hmm.

   16. JFJon Favreau4:00

       ... he won't need to if, uh, these third parties start, uh, taking away the votes from Joe Biden.

   17. KSKara Swisher4:05

       Joe Biden. Louie Swisher, what do you think about this? You and I have been arguing for days about this situation. I am more in the Jon camp, but you have a different perspective. Why don't you educate us?

   18. LSLouie Swisher4:15

       (laughs) I don't know if I can. But, um, yeah, I- I, um... well, I- I do really appreciate your comments, uh, what you and Jon were- Jon were commenting on, and I think, uh, that there's a- a strong sentiment for the Biden campaign going into the 2024, uh, election. But, uh, the thing that really bothers me is that, um, voters have, like... they've watched this movie before. We saw in 2020, uh, Trump versus Biden and now we see it again, and I think the electorate is generally pretty fatigued with these two options. And, uh, because of that and the other things we were talking about and how the incumbent is usually blamed for the state of the country regardless of what may have come before the incumbent that led to these things, um, I think that's gonna be a really big challenge for Biden. But one thing I really appreciated recently was, uh, an interview with Simon Rosenberg, uh, by Adam Nagourney in the New York Times. That was, uh... you know, he's a Democratic, uh, strategist and I thought his really confident attitude about Biden going forward was just something to, um, admire and to try to replicate throughout the, uh, Biden campaign because-

   19. KSKara Swisher5:10

       What about it? What about it? In terms of... because one of the things you're saying, a lot of your friends are sort of Trump... they're fine with Trump, correct?

   20. LSLouie Swisher5:17

       Well, yeah. Something I've seen really recently is that, um, a lot of young people are so dissatisfied with the Biden, uh... the status of the Biden administration that they're willing to, uh, just let Trump come up into the, uh, forefront and, uh, just pass on for what he's gonna... his vision of their country in 2025. And, um, I- I think that is just, uh, pretty ignorant to try to just look past the accomplishments of the Biden administration and to give Trump a general pass up to the White House, because I think that going forward with issues that are really important to young voters like, uh, the war in Israel, the economy, the status of, uh, student loan debts, I think these things will be really, really, uh, really much better in the hands of Biden than in Trump.

   21. KSKara Swisher6:01

       But why are they giving him a pass? What is... what do they say to you when you're... you know, when you're arguing? 'Cause you yourself are a little bit like, "Ugh, Biden," sometimes.

   22. LSLouie Swisher6:09

       Hm. Well, it's kind of hard not to be a nihilist if you're Gen... of the Generation Z. I think, uh, we're-

   23. KSKara Swisher6:14

       Why is that? (laughs)

   24. LSLouie Swisher6:14

       ... a pretty... Uh, because, I don't know. I think we had a lot of moments of hope in our, uh, you know, the past 20, 30 years of American politics.

   25. KSKara Swisher6:24

       Mm-hmm.

   26. LSLouie Swisher6:24

       Um, and, but the problem is that time after time, we've been handed, uh, defeats or setbacks or laybacks, and I think that just really is getting to Gen Z. But I doesn't, I don't think that's gonna... I don't think we're gonna give up because of that. I think we're gonna fight harder, and I think, um, the thing that the Biden campaign really has to do going forward is to try to just make a pitch to the country that if you re-elect Joe Biden, there are still options on the table. Uh, with Donald Trump, there's not as many options on the table because Joe Biden, you know, he... There are legitimate criticisms of his administration and his campaign and his promises, whether or not they've been kept, but the thing about Joe Biden is that he is willing to reflect and reform. Uh, you've seen this on his stances in, on LGBTQ rights, uh, crime to some extent, and I think that, um, going forward, like, it's really just important to remember that with Joe Biden, you could have the potential for a conversation. But with Donald Trump, it's his way or the highway, and that is, uh, that is really dangerous, and, you know, you don't wanna, you don't wanna give that guy a, a good card.

   27. JFJon Favreau7:19

       I can sense your frustration, both with your friends who, uh, uh, don't care if Trump wins and, and you about the Biden administration. The way I think about it is, like, we have to, we have to avoid thinking about our vote as either a reward or punishment for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump. It's ultimately not about Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It is about us. It is about the future that we decide for ourselves, and there are two choices. There's Joe Biden's gonna be president, or Donald Trump's gonna be president. There are... I mean, you can vote for a third party. It's not gonna happen. It's, they're not gonna win. We don't even know if there's, uh, any of these third-party candidates are on the ballot in enough states to win if, if they could, right? To actually get 270 electoral votes. So, then you have a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I think it i- uh, uh, you know, nuance isn't, uh, isn't, uh, people's specialty in politics these days, but, like, I very much disagree with Joe Biden's Gaza policy. I also think I love most of everything else he's done. I have personal affection and respect for him, and I'll be doing... I'm, I spend every waking hour trying to make sure that he and Democrats (laughs) get elected. Some people are like, "How could you do that with the Gaza policy?" It's like, well, because there are a whole bunch of other issues, because elections are a choice, because Donald Trump, I absolutely believe, would be much worse than Joe Biden, not just on Gaza, but yes on Gaza, but on everything, on every single other issue. And so what I'd rather do is exactly what you said, Louie, which is Joe Biden has shown that even though he is an 81-year-old fairly mainstream Democrat who's been in public service forever, he has, e- even from 2020 to now, he's been very open to progressives not only challenging him, but persuading him to change positions on multiple issues, and he's governed domestically as one of the most progressive presidents of our lifetime and has accomplished quite a bit that way. And so I think that progressives should see that as a win, right? That they have a president who (laughs) this, they never thought that that Joe Biden of all people would be this guy who you could push to, um, to pass progressive, like, really progressive legislation, and he's listened, right? And so I think h- he gives you a better chance than Donald Trump does.

   28. KSKara Swisher9:27

       So let me ask you one more question, Louie. You do talk a lot about Gaza. How important is it to younger people, more progressive people, say, but not necessarily. It's obviously sticks in your craw in a way that I hadn't seen that before from you. You're usually pretty even-handed on a lot of stuff.

   29. LSLouie Swisher9:42

       Yeah, I think this is a really, really important issue because, um, it is going to model how we engage with our allies and our enemies and how we engage with foreign relations for the years to come, because right now the United States is, uh, you know, not, not checking itself and not questioning its own support of, uh, a really, really, I think, unhinged and, uh, you know, progressively dangerous regime in Israel. I, I really appreciated and, um, agreed with Ben Rhodes the other day on, uh, Pod Save the World. I thought he had some really good comments on, uh, especially the recent, uh, world, uh, kitchen strike and, uh, you know, the status of w- why are we still supporting this regardless of the fact that we've been shown time and time again that the Israeli government does not listen to the United States, and, uh, especially when we are sending them weapons and weapons and weapons and signing more and more deals to support Israel? But we're not getting anything in return, or we're not getting any, um, response from Netanyahu's administration on our legitimate requests for... You know, first of all is we send weapons without any, um, knowledge of, well, until after the fact of what these weapons are being used for with no checks and boundaries. And I think going forward, if the United States doesn't put a foot down, it's gonna set a very dangerous precedent, um, for not only our, uh, allies to, you know, stretch our limits, but also for the, the consequences of this unquestioned support going forward, um, and what kind of retaliation that could face in the future. I think this is a really important issue.

   30. KSKara Swisher11:07

       And it has resonance with you.
2. 15:00 – 16:43

   It's gotta be real…

   1. KSKara Swisher15:00

      can blend into that, but I think political activism doesn't have to. So I think political, uh, celebrities could get political in their activism sense, but, you know, the whole vote Joe Biden because I'm going to vote for Joe Biden message, it, it could get a little fatigued by, uh, Election Day. I see. Interesting. Jon, do you-

   2. JFJon Favreau15:13

      It's gotta be real and authentic, right? I think, I always think about normie voters.

   3. KSKara Swisher15:17

      Yeah.

   4. JFJon Favreau15:17

      We are not normie voters, uh, on this, (laughs) on this podcast right now.

   5. KSKara Swisher15:21

      Right.

   6. JFJon Favreau15:21

      But there are a lot of people who, again, who will not tune in. And, you know, a, someone that they really admire is a signifier. And if that person talks authentically about why they think it's important to vote for Joe Biden or they think it's important that Donald Trump isn't president again, I do think that can have an effect on people who, whose minds are not made up, which I know it seems impossible to believe that there's people whose minds (laughs) are not made up. But whether they're not made up between voting for Biden or Trump, or just whether they're gonna vote at all, um, there's, there's a lot of persuasion work to be done. And, and you have to try everything to reach some of these voters who just aren't paying as much attention. And sometimes that can be a celebrity endorsement, sometimes that can be a good friend, uh, having a tough conversation with them. Sometimes it can be s- a podcast they listen to, something they read.

   7. KSKara Swisher16:06

      Mm-hmm.

   8. JFJon Favreau16:06

      There's just, there's so many different ways. And the other important thing here is that, like, all of us, uh, if, if you really want Joe Biden to win and you don't want Donald Trump to be president, like, we have the ability to be messengers. Like, the, the people who are gonna play the biggest role are the people who've already decided that they are going to support Joe Biden, trying to go out there and talk to other people that they know in their networks to-

   9. KSKara Swisher16:26

      Mm-hmm.

   10. JFJon Favreau16:26

       ... convince them to do the same thing. And I don't think that work's necessarily gonna be easy, but I think that's gonna be the critical work of the campaign.

   11. KSKara Swisher16:32

       Anyway, thank you, Louie. Thank you so much. I'll see you soon.

   12. JFJon Favreau16:35

       Thank you.

   13. KSKara Swisher16:35

       You're gonna come over and see your mama before I leave. Yeah, we'll get a coffee.

Episode duration: 16:43