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Swing State Polls, Celebrity Endorsements, and Gen Z Voters | Pivot

Kara Swisher is joined by Jon Favreau and Louie Swisher to discuss the latest 2024 election news, including swing state polling and Gen Z's political leanings. #pivot #podcast #2024election #trump #biden #genz

Kara SwisherhostLouie SwisherguestJon Favreauguest
Apr 5, 202416mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 0:54

    Setting the scene: Swing-state polling looks rough for Biden

    1. KS

      Jon, we're back and we're talking about the presidential election, and we have a special guest joining us and a Jon Favreau super fan, Louie Swisher. Louie, come on on.

    2. LS

      Hello.

    3. KS

      He's at NYU and he's studying abroad, and so he gets an upfront, uh, and personal look at politics Argentinean style, which is a lot going on here. But let's start with some polling. Uh, the latest numbers are out and it's not great news for Joe Biden. Former President Donald Trump is leading the, President Joe Biden in six out of seven swing states, according to the Wall Street Journal's new poll. Trump has a multipoint overall lead in these states and increases to double digits when it comes to questions about the economy, inflation, and immigration. Biden does beat Trump on abortion rights, an issue we'll discuss more in a bit. Uh, Jon, let's start with you on these numbers, 'cause Louie has a perspective that I think is really interesting, but let's talk... uh, let, why don't you talk about what do you think about these numbers and, uh, why Biden doesn't get credit for the economy?

  2. 0:54 – 2:30

    How inflation psychology is hurting Biden’s economic perceptions

    1. JF

      So, I think, caveat, right, any single poll you can't freak out over too much. Uh, but if you throw it in the average, I think the averages right now show Trump ahead by about a point, and then if you go to the swing states, he's ahead of about four in Arizona, two to three Michigan, three Nevada. It's about tied in Wisconsin and it's almost tied in Pennsylvania as well. Um, so not great for Biden, uh, but it's early. I guess that's... so if you want reasons for optimism, (laughs) it-

    2. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    3. JF

      ... is early, so the numbers can change. Um, I do think that the reason to your question about the economy, I think when you go through inflation, uh, even though the rate of inflation has come down, prices are still high, and I think for a lot of, uh, people who were, you know, struggling even before, uh, inflation, having higher prices, uh, you don't necessarily notice yet that your wages are also going up. And so you're still... you know, it's a $12 hamburger and it's not a $13 hamburger anymore, but you're still pissed that it used to be cheaper, uh, and I don't think... I don't think that's gone away yet. Now, the good news is I think consumer sentiment, economic sentiment continues to rise, and so, um, and you're starting to see in the polls views of the economy get a little bit better as well. So it's slow going and obviously anything can happen between now and November, but it- it is heading in the right direction, but I do think that people are still pretty upset over inflation.

    4. KS

      So what did... when you saw these polls, what did you think? Oh, Jesus, it's continuing, it doesn't change, it hasn't changed yet all?

    5. JF

      Yeah.

    6. KS

      And how can this guy have such a great lead?

  3. 2:30 – 3:31

    Why Trump benefits as the challenger (and why memories fade)

    1. JF

      Yeah. So I think there's a few reason. There's people who are still up- there's people still upset about high prices. Um, there is... I think the fact that Trump is now the challenger really helps him because he is comfortable in that role, and, you know, when Joe Biden ran in 2020, Joe Biden didn't have a record that everyone knew and was pissed about as president, and Biden now has a record. And to the extent that people are upset about high prices, to the extent that they feel like, you know, they're upset about immigration, they're upset about... uh, they just... the general... Gaza, there's a general feeling that the sort of the world is out of control kind of thing, and the president, the incumbent always gets the- the lion's share of the blame for that. And so I think he's struggling with that. I also think memories are short, uh, which is why you see Trump get all these, like, retrospectively high... higher approval ratings from his first term (laughs) , um, than anyone would expect. Uh, I do think that the more we see of Trump and the more we hear of Trump,

  4. 3:31 – 4:15

    The third-party spoiler risk in a low-ceiling, high-floor race

    1. JF

      um, from Trump, uh, during this campaign, his numbers will sort of settle back to where they were when he was president. Uh, at least that's the hope. That's what the Biden campaign is hoping as well. Um, and so... yeah. And so I think that's part of the party. And then, of course, I think Biden's other big challenge is third-party t- threats.

    2. KS

      Third-party threats.

    3. JF

      Um, because Trump has a- a, uh, low ceiling but a high floor-

    4. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    5. JF

      ... and so he really has never been able to hit 50 in all the times he's run, but-

    6. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    7. JF

      ... he won't need to if, uh, these third parties start, uh, taking away the votes from Joe Biden.

    8. KS

      Joe Biden. Louie Swisher, what do you think about this? You and I have been arguing for days about this situation. I am more in the Jon camp, but you have a different perspective. Why don't you educate us?

  5. 4:15 – 6:01

    Louie’s Gen Z read: fatigue, dissatisfaction, and dangerous complacency about Trump

    1. LS

      (laughs) I don't know if I can. But, um, yeah, I- I, um... well, I- I do really appreciate your comments, uh, what you and Jon were- Jon were commenting on, and I think, uh, that there's a- a strong sentiment for the Biden campaign going into the 2024, uh, election. But, uh, the thing that really bothers me is that, um, voters have, like... they've watched this movie before. We saw in 2020, uh, Trump versus Biden and now we see it again, and I think the electorate is generally pretty fatigued with these two options. And, uh, because of that and the other things we were talking about and how the incumbent is usually blamed for the state of the country regardless of what may have come before the incumbent that led to these things, um, I think that's gonna be a really big challenge for Biden. But one thing I really appreciated recently was, uh, an interview with Simon Rosenberg, uh, by Adam Nagourney in the New York Times. That was, uh... you know, he's a Democratic, uh, strategist and I thought his really confident attitude about Biden going forward was just something to, um, admire and to try to replicate throughout the, uh, Biden campaign because-

    2. KS

      What about it? What about it? In terms of... because one of the things you're saying, a lot of your friends are sort of Trump... they're fine with Trump, correct?

    3. LS

      Well, yeah. Something I've seen really recently is that, um, a lot of young people are so dissatisfied with the Biden, uh... the status of the Biden administration that they're willing to, uh, just let Trump come up into the, uh, forefront and, uh, just pass on for what he's gonna... his vision of their country in 2025. And, um, I- I think that is just, uh, pretty ignorant to try to just look past the accomplishments of the Biden administration and to give Trump a general pass up to the White House, because I think that going forward with issues that are really important to young voters like, uh, the war in Israel, the economy, the status of, uh, student loan debts, I think these things will be really, really, uh, really much better in the hands of Biden than in Trump.

  6. 6:01 – 7:19

    Why some young voters ‘give Trump a pass’—and what Biden must argue

    1. KS

      But why are they giving him a pass? What is... what do they say to you when you're... you know, when you're arguing? 'Cause you yourself are a little bit like, "Ugh, Biden," sometimes.

    2. LS

      Hm. Well, it's kind of hard not to be a nihilist if you're Gen... of the Generation Z. I think, uh, we're-

    3. KS

      Why is that? (laughs)

    4. LS

      ... a pretty... Uh, because, I don't know. I think we had a lot of moments of hope in our, uh, you know, the past 20, 30 years of American politics.

    5. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    6. LS

      Um, and, but the problem is that time after time, we've been handed, uh, defeats or setbacks or laybacks, and I think that just really is getting to Gen Z. But I doesn't, I don't think that's gonna... I don't think we're gonna give up because of that. I think we're gonna fight harder, and I think, um, the thing that the Biden campaign really has to do going forward is to try to just make a pitch to the country that if you re-elect Joe Biden, there are still options on the table. Uh, with Donald Trump, there's not as many options on the table because Joe Biden, you know, he... There are legitimate criticisms of his administration and his campaign and his promises, whether or not they've been kept, but the thing about Joe Biden is that he is willing to reflect and reform. Uh, you've seen this on his stances in, on LGBTQ rights, uh, crime to some extent, and I think that, um, going forward, like, it's really just important to remember that with Joe Biden, you could have the potential for a conversation. But with Donald Trump, it's his way or the highway, and that is, uh, that is really dangerous, and, you know, you don't wanna, you don't wanna give that guy a, a good card.

  7. 7:19 – 9:27

    Favreau’s voting framework: elections aren’t reward/punishment—they’re a binary choice

    1. JF

      I can sense your frustration, both with your friends who, uh, uh, don't care if Trump wins and, and you about the Biden administration. The way I think about it is, like, we have to, we have to avoid thinking about our vote as either a reward or punishment for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump. It's ultimately not about Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It is about us. It is about the future that we decide for ourselves, and there are two choices. There's Joe Biden's gonna be president, or Donald Trump's gonna be president. There are... I mean, you can vote for a third party. It's not gonna happen. It's, they're not gonna win. We don't even know if there's, uh, any of these third-party candidates are on the ballot in enough states to win if, if they could, right? To actually get 270 electoral votes. So, then you have a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I think it i- uh, uh, you know, nuance isn't, uh, isn't, uh, people's specialty in politics these days, but, like, I very much disagree with Joe Biden's Gaza policy. I also think I love most of everything else he's done. I have personal affection and respect for him, and I'll be doing... I'm, I spend every waking hour trying to make sure that he and Democrats (laughs) get elected. Some people are like, "How could you do that with the Gaza policy?" It's like, well, because there are a whole bunch of other issues, because elections are a choice, because Donald Trump, I absolutely believe, would be much worse than Joe Biden, not just on Gaza, but yes on Gaza, but on everything, on every single other issue. And so what I'd rather do is exactly what you said, Louie, which is Joe Biden has shown that even though he is an 81-year-old fairly mainstream Democrat who's been in public service forever, he has, e- even from 2020 to now, he's been very open to progressives not only challenging him, but persuading him to change positions on multiple issues, and he's governed domestically as one of the most progressive presidents of our lifetime and has accomplished quite a bit that way. And so I think that progressives should see that as a win, right? That they have a president who (laughs) this, they never thought that that Joe Biden of all people would be this guy who you could push to, um, to pass progressive, like, really progressive legislation, and he's listened, right? And so I think h- he gives you a better chance than Donald Trump does.

  8. 9:27 – 11:29

    Gaza’s salience for Gen Z: U.S. leverage, accountability, and visible suffering online

    1. KS

      So let me ask you one more question, Louie. You do talk a lot about Gaza. How important is it to younger people, more progressive people, say, but not necessarily. It's obviously sticks in your craw in a way that I hadn't seen that before from you. You're usually pretty even-handed on a lot of stuff.

    2. LS

      Yeah, I think this is a really, really important issue because, um, it is going to model how we engage with our allies and our enemies and how we engage with foreign relations for the years to come, because right now the United States is, uh, you know, not, not checking itself and not questioning its own support of, uh, a really, really, I think, unhinged and, uh, you know, progressively dangerous regime in Israel. I, I really appreciated and, um, agreed with Ben Rhodes the other day on, uh, Pod Save the World. I thought he had some really good comments on, uh, especially the recent, uh, world, uh, kitchen strike and, uh, you know, the status of w- why are we still supporting this regardless of the fact that we've been shown time and time again that the Israeli government does not listen to the United States, and, uh, especially when we are sending them weapons and weapons and weapons and signing more and more deals to support Israel? But we're not getting anything in return, or we're not getting any, um, response from Netanyahu's administration on our legitimate requests for... You know, first of all is we send weapons without any, um, knowledge of, well, until after the fact of what these weapons are being used for with no checks and boundaries. And I think going forward, if the United States doesn't put a foot down, it's gonna set a very dangerous precedent, um, for not only our, uh, allies to, you know, stretch our limits, but also for the, the consequences of this unquestioned support going forward, um, and what kind of retaliation that could face in the future. I think this is a really important issue.

    3. KS

      And it has resonance with you.

    4. LS

      Yeah, yeah. I think-

    5. KS

      Yeah, it has resonance with you.

    6. LS

      I think because also it's such a, it's such a visible crisis and that we're able to see time and time again on Twitter, on Instagram, videos of on the ground of what is happening and especially with, you know, the algorithms of TikTok and Instagram that are so, uh, engagement-focused that these things are put into our face time and time again. And, uh, young voters-

  9. 11:29 – 12:33

    Are young voters being manipulated by algorithms? Louie’s ‘raised in it’ response

    1. KS

      D- can I ask you, do you think you're being manipulated by them? That's what the-

    2. LS

      Obviously.

    3. KS

      ... lot of people say, that you're getting-

    4. LS

      Obviously. I've been-

    5. KS

      ... you know, okay. (laughs) Right?

    6. LS

      But I've been raised in the mani- I've been raised in the manipulation. Our generation has been scrolling for years.

    7. KS

      Yeah.

    8. LS

      And so I think to some extent we've figured that out, and we know when we're being lied to, and we know when to look for things. Like, I can spot a, I can spot a AI deepfake like nothing. You know, I know, I know what it is. And, um, I, I, uh, I think-

    9. KS

      (laughs) Yeah, it's, it's older people that lose their minds over-

    10. LS

      It is, but I think because we are the information generation, um, we have so much coming at us-

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    12. LS

      ... from so many angles all the time that it, it is just really... It hurts our brains almost to try to consider all these global events that, you know, it, that for years and years before, you didn't really resonate with it unless you were seeing it, and now we are seeing it. And so that is why it's so impactful-

    13. KS

      Yeah.

    14. LS

      ... for younger generation, and also it really goes against the morals that we've been told for years and years and years that our country stands for, not only on a domestic sense, but also on an international sense about, like, quest to spread democracy around the world. So, uh, big air quotes, but...

  10. 12:33 – 14:36

    What Trump could do without Congress: executive powers and authoritarian risk

    1. JF

      I mean, (laughs) people talk about, you know, the end of democracy as a shorthand, and that can seem alarmist. And I also think that you really need to, um, make that tangible for people. But, uh, even if Donald Trump wins the presidency and, uh, doesn't have a Republican Congress, which I think is highly unlikely if he wins, I think he will have a Republican Congress, certainly a Senate, h- hopefully, uh, not a House, but very possible. Um, even if he doesn't have Congress and he can't pass legislation, what he can do through executive action alone is terrifying.

    2. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    3. JF

      He has said that he wants to, and his advisors have said that they want to invoke the Insurrection Act. That's, that's using the US military against protesters. They want to use the US military to, uh, also, and National Guard to go into cities across the country and conduct mass deportation raids. These are not, like, new migrant arrivals at the border kind of thing. This is going into workplaces and communities and dragging people out and checking their papers. Um, he wants to, uh, pardon people who violently assaulted police officers on January 6th. Imagine the messa- message that sends to other people who want to commit political violence that Jo- that Donald Trump just let all these violent, uh, people who tried to kill cops out of prison. And then he wants to, uh, send the FBI and the DOJ after pre- pretty much anyone who disagrees with him politically, right? It's not just like he wants the, the Biden crime family stuff and throw B- Biden in jail. Imagine him investigating businesses, the IRS is coming after you, the-

    4. KS

      (laughs)

    5. JF

      ... I mean, the, he's, he's promised to investigate MSNBC, right? Like-

    6. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    7. JF

      ... it is, things can go downhill really fast. And if he wins, people say, "Oh, maybe the courts will stop him." But, uh, you know, Liz Cheney said this to me when I was interviewing her. Like, she's like, "Why would he listen to the courts at that point?"

    8. KS

      Right, right.

    9. JF

      He has, he has, he, he can, you know, they're gonna say, "You and, you know, go ahead and force your ruling with, uh, what army?"

    10. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    11. JF

      Uh, (laughs) and so it is possible that he's too lazy to do some of this stuff, right? It is possible that he doesn't get to all of it because he's too incompetent. But I don't know, even if he does half of what he's already talked about as president, it's pretty dangerous, pretty dangerous.

  11. 14:36 – 16:32

    Do celebrity endorsements matter? Taylor Swift, authenticity, and ‘normie’ persuasion

    1. KS

      Would you care if Taylor Swift, uh, backed Biden? (laughs) I just have to ask. I mean, she did it before, right? She did it before.

    2. JF

      Yeah, yeah.

    3. KS

      Um- ... so I think she's probably gonna do it again. Um- Yeah. How do you like celebrities in general?

    4. JF

      ... her, her decisions has been my vote.

    5. KS

      It doesn't sway your vote, okay. No, no, no, celebrities, celebrities should stay away from this one, I think. I think, uh, I am someone who, um, believes in a lot in, like, keeping the personal life personal. And, um, I think politics can blend into that, but I think political activism doesn't have to. So I think political, uh, celebrities could get political in their activism sense, but, you know, the whole vote Joe Biden because I'm going to vote for Joe Biden message, it, it could get a little fatigued by, uh, Election Day. I see. Interesting. Jon, do you-

    6. JF

      It's gotta be real and authentic, right? I think, I always think about normie voters.

    7. KS

      Yeah.

    8. JF

      We are not normie voters, uh, on this, (laughs) on this podcast right now.

    9. KS

      Right.

    10. JF

      But there are a lot of people who, again, who will not tune in. And, you know, a, someone that they really admire is a signifier. And if that person talks authentically about why they think it's important to vote for Joe Biden or they think it's important that Donald Trump isn't president again, I do think that can have an effect on people who, whose minds are not made up, which I know it seems impossible to believe that there's people whose minds (laughs) are not made up. But whether they're not made up between voting for Biden or Trump, or just whether they're gonna vote at all, um, there's, there's a lot of persuasion work to be done. And, and you have to try everything to reach some of these voters who just aren't paying as much attention. And sometimes that can be a celebrity endorsement, sometimes that can be a good friend, uh, having a tough conversation with them. Sometimes it can be s- a podcast they listen to, something they read.

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    12. JF

      There's just, there's so many different ways. And the other important thing here is that, like, all of us, uh, if, if you really want Joe Biden to win and you don't want Donald Trump to be president, like, we have the ability to be messengers. Like, the, the people who are gonna play the biggest role are the people who've already decided that they are going to support Joe Biden, trying to go out there and talk to other people that they know in their networks to-

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    14. JF

      ... convince them to do the same thing. And I don't think that work's necessarily gonna be easy, but I think that's gonna be the critical work of the campaign.

  12. 16:32 – 16:43

    Wrap-up: Kara thanks Louie and closes the segment

    1. KS

      Anyway, thank you, Louie. Thank you so much. I'll see you soon.

    2. JF

      Thank you.

    3. KS

      You're gonna come over and see your mama before I leave. Yeah, we'll get a coffee.

Episode duration: 16:43

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