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Who’s to Blame After Texas Flooding Tragedy — And What Needs to Change | Pivot

Kara and Scott discuss the catastrophic flooding in Texas, and the blame game over forecasts, funding, and warning systems. Then, Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is now law, so who wins, who loses, and what does the bill mean for the future of the country? Plus, Elon forms a new political party, and TikTok reportedly prepares to launch a U.S. app. #karaswisher #scottgalloway #pivotpodcast #texas #flooding #trump #bigbeautifulbill #elonmusk #tiktok #tariffs Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 0:34 Elon Lashes Out Over Epstein Findings 1:58 Elon Forms New Political Party 17:17 TikTok Developing U.S. Version of App 21:07 Texas Flooding Tragedy 31:36 “Big Beautiful Bill” Winners and Losers 44:31 Trump’s Tariffs Return 46:51 Wins and Fails Producers: Lara Naaman Zoë Marcus Taylor Griffin Kevin Oliver Corinne Ruff Audio Engineer: Ernie Indradat Production Assistance: Kate Gallagher Vox Media's Executive Producer of Podcasts: Nishat Kurwa Subscribe to Pivot on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pivot/id1073226719 Subscribe to Pivot on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4MU3RFGELZxPT9XHVwTNPR Follow us on Instagram and Threads at: https://www.instagram.com/pivotpodcastofficial Follow us on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@PIVOTPODCAST Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at https://podcasts.voxmedia.com/show/pivot This episode is presented to you by IBM. https://ibm.com

Scott GallowayhostKara SwisherhostUnidentified guest from 'On With Kara Swisher' clipguest
Jul 8, 20251h 3mWatch on YouTube ↗

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  1. 0:000:34

    Intro

    1. SG

      Thoughts and prayers aren't gonna bring those kids back, and they're not gonna help our infrastructure put in place the right warning system. (instrumental music)

    2. KS

      Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

    3. SG

      And I'm Scott Galloway. And this episode is sponsored by IBM.

    4. KS

      We've got a lot to get to today, actually, in a very serious way, uh, because over the weekend, other people had really tragic weekends, including the flooding in Texas. Um, and of course, we will talk about other things like winners and losers from Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. Uh,

  2. 0:341:58

    Elon Lashes Out Over Epstein Findings

    1. KS

      but first, let's get to the latest fuel on the fire of the big beautiful fight between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, which is just getting worse, as we predicted, Scott Galloway.

    2. SG

      You did. No, you predicted this.

    3. KS

      I did. I know him so well. He couldn't stand the- the deficit. I know him. He's talked about it for years, and I had to listen to it. So, Elon is lashing out over the lack of findings now. Today, he's moved on in, uh, in an FBI and DOJ review of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. This was a thing he tweeted about when he started his fight with Trump, and then he took it back, and now he's back. Uh, I knew it. It's g- You know, he's got a hair up his ass about this and a bunch of other things. But the departments have reportedly concluded there was no Epstein client list, no evidence of blackmail, and that enhanced footage proves Epstein killed himself early Monday morning. Elon posted, "So umm," and then, "What is Ghislaine Maxwell in prison for? Stuff like this does not improve people's faith in government." Um, he also... Uh, you know, Pam Bondi's gotten herself in a bit of a mess, saying she had a list in front of her, and then, of course, she said there is no list. Um, and of- and of course, uh, Dan Bongino and, uh, Kash Patel has ma- have made their careers saying Epstein was- was killed, and now sa- say he isn't. Let's talk about the findings really quickly. They do make Bondi look suspicious, even if you don't believe this, and I know you had a different opinion about the Epstein thing than I did. I thought it was just he killed himself. But, um, uh, but- but that's not they're-

  3. 1:5817:17

    Elon Forms New Political Party

    1. KS

      all they're fighting about. Trump is calling Elon, quote, "off the rails" following Musk's weekend announcement that he'll form a new political party, the America Party. Musk has called Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, quote, "a disgusting abomination" and suggested targeting some key House and Senate seats in 2026. It's actually somewhat canny. If he gets enough of them, he can certainly cause a lot of trouble. Uh, Tesla shares are falling in pre-market trading on Monday for a lot of reasons, including results, but this is not helping. Um, here's what Treasury Secretary Scott Besson had to say about it t- on Sunday to CNN's Dana Bash. And I will say ahead of it, he sounds like such a prig, but let's go.

    2. US

      The principles of Doge were very popular. I think if you looked at the polling, Elon was not. So, uh, I believe that the boards of directors at his various companies wanted him to come back and run those companies, which he is better at than anyone. So, I imagine that those board of directors did not like this announcement yesterday and will be encouraging him to focus on his business activities, not his political activities.

    3. KS

      Gosh, thanks, Mom. (laughs) Just honestly, Scott Besson. It's none of your business what he does. But in any case, all the bickering has hurt his relationship with Beijing too, because Tesla sales are falling off there, as we have discussed many times, because BYD has great cars. And, uh, and that- that's the way it goes there in- in there. So, so tell me a little bit about this, Scott. How do you feel this just continuing? Um, and- and actually, I think it can cause some real damage here, actually, but maybe you don't.

    4. SG

      Well, typically, any third party that gets any traction, it has a center of gravity, a reason for being. The Green Party, it's pretty clear what, you know, they think. The Ross Perot's Independent movement wanted a flat tax. That had some substance to it. Andrew Yang's party that he tried to start, I thought had some substance to it. He's known for UBI. The substance of- of Musk trying to start a party is the following, or the center of gravity, is, "I'm disappointed I'm no longer the first friend." You know, the... Uh, his- his criticism that this guy is a pedophile and that this bill will add to the deficit and is ir- is irresponsible, he was down with all of that when he had input around who was gonna be the next director of the CIA or the IRS. He- it didn't seem to bother him then. But basically, since he's been kinda unceremoniously kicked out of the White House, he's decided we need a third party. So, this thing doesn't... It- it's sort of dead on arrival in the sense that it doesn't- it doesn't have a reason for being. And in addition, as a construct, the United States electoral system just isn't set up for a third party. It's set up to block any third party. We have... The system's essentially rigged for two. It's a- a first-past-the-post, winner-take-all elections. It's not some... In some nations, they have sort of a parliamentary or representative or proportional representation, like Germany, Sweden, and Israel. They routinely see viable third, fourth, and fifth parties because seats are allocated based on vote share, uh, not an all or nothing. So, when you have all or nothing, it's binary. So, a third par- all third parties do, when they're successful, and I don't think this one will be, is they're spoilers. Um, Bill Clinton should not have won the presidency, but Ross Perot took 18% of the vote, probably like 11 to 7 from Bush, Clinton, respectively, and Clinton became president. The Jill Stein people would argue stole the presidency. Ralph Nader people think is what handed, um, you know, W the presidency. So, they can be spoilers, but this one has no reason for being. This one comes across as sour grapes. Scott Besson comically pretending or trying to call on the board of directors to actually do something here is- is co- is laughable. So, I think this, like most third parties, will get... I- I: I think this will die a quick death, but w- we'll see.

    5. KS

      All right, let me, let me put something out for you, because one of the things that he's been talking about is- is knocking off a couple of seats, right? Given how close these elections are, 210 to whatever, it's always within two or three, right? What if he goes after-... two Senate seats and eight House seats, and then suddenly has them, you know, in- encourages and gets a certain number of people into place that could block everything, right? There is that. Nobody's ever really talked about it like that. Um, and if he, he gets those Congresspeople in and they are beholden to him or, or they agree with him, right? And people find it appealing, because I do think people don't find the Democrats or the Republicans, there's a whole RINO group. Um, you know, Mark Cuban is like, "This is a good idea." And I think they all think of it as blocking these two parties. And so instead of thinking it like, "Let's have a third party," let's have a third blocker, um, is how I look at it. And so if they could do that and they, and they're, they're the difference between... How hard could it be to get six seats? I don't know. I don't know. Like, I don't think it's impossible, that's for sure. But a lot of people who I, I'm surprised are sort of like, "Huh, interesting idea." And I think that's what he's doing here. And he's actually kinda said it in that regard is, "I can find a way to block, you know, them from voting these things in and giving nobody the majority," really, essentially. Any thoughts on that?

    6. SG

      Well, I think you're right, but we're talking about two different things. One is I, I don't think a third party, a viable third party, is viable. What you're talking about is influence, and Elon Musk has already proven he can have massive influence. There's a decent argument that he's the reason that Trump was elected.

    7. KS

      Correct. Yeah.

    8. SG

      So when you're worth $400 billion and you have a big media platform and you're bold and unafraid, as Musk is, you're absolutely right. He could... I mean, Pete- One thing, Peter Thiel could call Vice President Vance and say, "I need you to promote, um, a... NASA should be focused solely on, you know, going to Pluto." And he would say, "Yes, Mr. Thiel" (laughs) . Um, uh, Peter Thiel has, is the puppet master behind JD Vance. And Elon Musk, until recently, had a lot of control over Musk, but now that Trump is, you know, uh, excuse me, now that Trump is probably not running again and feels like, "Okay, I've used this guy. I've squeezed all the juice I want from this lemon," but Elon Musk with his platform and his money, unfortunately because of Citizens United, could absolutely get enough people elected that owed him enough that they would have to take his call and vote one way or another.

    9. KS

      Or just would vote one way or another. Like, maybe there's a, there, there is this sort of group that is like... Interestingly, Sam Altman was saying he's politically homeless, that feel politically homeless on both sides of the equation. Now, that doesn't mean to say if there's centrist Democrats they might not like them, or reasonable Republicans, they might... There's this group that I think very much so, if he got, um, you know, if he put enough money to it and the right person in some of these i- uh, if you could target six seats, like, like a Mike Lawler, for example, that don't have to be beholden to the Trump people, and once Trump's missing from the equation, less scared, you could, you could see them just blocking legislation almost continually, like until they, until the groups compromise, which it honestly is not such a bad thing, which is why I think Cu- I haven't talked to Cuban about it, but that's my assumption that Cuban thinks is attractive. He got a lot of shit for that, for saying interesting, by the way.

    10. SG

      Uh, w- i- if, if past elections are any proxy for what's gonna happen in the midterms, we'll see-

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    12. SG

      ... Democrats, uh, retake control of the House, at which point-

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    14. SG

      ... it'll be very hard for them to get legislation through unless, to your point, they compromise.

    15. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    16. SG

      Uh, the idea... Musk is absolutely has the ability and the firepower to get several people elected, which could end up being a swing vote. The problem is, and I've said this over and over, he's a drug addict, and he's a narcissist, and I don't think he's especially concerned or has a lot of regard for the he- wellbeing of our deficit or the United States. I think he just wants power. So maybe he can get it, but then what? And then what? You think... I, I just don't-

    17. KS

      Right. I do think this is something he has talked... The deficit thing has been on his mind for a long time. That is certainly true. And I've heard it from not just him, but other people like him, right?

    18. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    19. KS

      This deficit, this overspending, and you talk about too.

    20. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    21. KS

      I mean, it's vaguely appealing to not let them do this, right? To d- to deny them the ability to add on taxes or, um, or to take away from young people or people who marginalize people or not making the investments. There's, the problem is there's things he's right about. Why are we continuing to double down on fossil fuels and not... Even th- even if he's hurt about the EVs, directionally it's correct compared to fossil fuels. So there's a lot of appeal to certain people, I think. One interesting... There's two things that I think about. One is Joe Rogan suddenly is like, "Wait a minute. He's taking away hard..." Like, that gang goes with Elon? That's a big gang, right? Like, kinda thing of people who have influence. Um, this, so it creates a chaos which is sort of where he lives. Um, the second thing is that the response from Republicans has been fascinating. It's so over the top. Trump himself, that, did you see that long wor- um, it looks like it was written by Stephen Miller 'cause it had some punctuation. Um, but it was sort of like over, like right in the middle of so many other crisises for him to take the time to do like a, a, the giant paragraph was, was and full of like, "He's off the rails. He takes drugs." Like, he's throwing everything at him, which means he's worried. Um, and, and then 'cause if he wasn't worried, he'd ignore him presumably. Um, and then secondly, so, uh, God, Scott Jennings on CNN. Um, I work for CNN. I'm sorry, CNN. But that you let him say things like that?

    22. US

      My humble advice to Elon, who I admire very much actually, is that you may be dividing the forces of people who want to save Western civilization to the benefit of the people who don't.

    23. KS

      (laughs)

    24. SG

      A little dramatic.

    25. KS

      Dramatic. What a drama queen and what a terrible thing to say. Um, I, I'm sort of welcoming, um, M- Musk to mow those people down, like, you know what I mean, in terms of, of causing them problem, and they're all very, very worried about this. So I just am paying attention to their response, which is...... off the charts, which is 'cause they understand, uh, the damage he could do, including around Epstein, even though, I mean, how are you feeling about the Epstein thing now that this was re- released? 'Cause you were sort of, "Kara, he was killed." (laughs) You r- remember you were, like, on that, that train? That-

    26. SG

      I, I feel, I mean, I'm j- I, I just think it's like, I think it's old news and they keep-

    27. KS

      Really? I know.

    28. SG

      ... pulling the ghost, uh, uh, really? I think they keep pulling the ghost out of, of, of Epstein. But th- there was a couple things there. The first is, as progressives, what Elon's doing now is nothing but upside for us. Distinct of the viability of a third party, distinct of what his motivations are. His primary motivation is that he hates Donald Trump and feels like he was treated poorly. I, I don't believe that he's that concerned. May- fine. Maybe he is. He's on the record as not liking the deficit. Well, he, he was fine with it when, when he would- got to show up to the West Wing in Hot Topic outfits and talk about A Brave New World and everyone was like, "You're the co-president." He seemed to be comfortable with these deficits.

    29. KS

      Yes. Agreed.

    30. SG

      And with, with everything he knew about, you know, uh, Donald Trump and Epstein up until that point. But he's fueled right now, as far as I can tell, by rage and-

  4. 17:1721:07

    TikTok Developing U.S. Version of App

    1. KS

      ahold of, but he's obviously not now, TikTok is reportedly developing a US version of the app ahead of the upcoming sale deadline. President Trump has given the Chinese parent company ByteDance until September 17th to sell the assets, although he's extended that several times illegally. Um, he says he's been talking, he'll be talking to China early this week about the sale, and that he, quote, "pretty much has a done deal." It's probably Oracle and Marc Andreessen and some version of, uh, uh, various of its rich owners. The US version of TikTok would launch in the App Store on September 5th, um, which I don't know what that means. Uh, so I, uh, uh, I don't know if that's enough or what's enough, a US version? Um, I, I don't know what's gonna happen. Do we care anymore, Scott? Do we? We do, but we don't, if that makes sense.

    2. SG

      Well, it's been so, I mean, he liked it, then he didn't like it, then he liked it again, and then he found out one of his biggest donors was a big investor there. Y- it all comes down to this. Who owns it? And whether it's a US version, that doesn't matter. It's who owns it and who has control over the algorithm. And I, I've now come to believe that China realizes they're playing with a much stronger hand than Trump, and that this guy continues to blink, and that whatever they do will be sort of window dressing.... uh, as opposed to, again, who controls the algorithm and gets to decide what content to dial up to further create a new generation of nonprofit, business and military leaders that basically think America sucks? I think that's the free gift with purchase that TikTok is getting in addition to their $300 billion in enterprise value. I don't think they're gonna give that up. I don't think they think they have to. I think they can come up with some sort of accommodation that President Trump can claim credit for but meanwhile, Beijing will still control the algorithm. So, uh, the only thing that matters here is who owns it.

    3. KS

      Yeah. So who? What are you... I mean, I assume it's an Oracle, Andreessen rich guys thing, right, all his friends.

    4. SG

      I just wonder if that's gonna happen. You think that, you think it's gonna happen.

    5. KS

      I don't know. I don't, I, I don't know how the, he's gonna, he's, he's got a deal done, like he, like l- like I don't believe much of anything coming out of his mouth.

    6. SG

      Right. Yeah.

    7. KS

      So, um, I just don't know... yeah, again, why would Chi- what's he gonna do? What's he gonna do? Like what's, what's he gonna do?

    8. SG

      Well, he could technically-

    9. KS

      If they just-

    10. SG

      He could ban it, he, he could enforce the ban that-

    11. KS

      Well, that's the law.

    12. SG

      There was-

    13. KS

      That's the law. Yeah, yeah.

    14. SG

      But he hasn't enforced the law.

    15. KS

      Right.

    16. SG

      He could enforce the law that's been passed by both, by all branches of government that he's decided not to enforce-

    17. KS

      You're right. Right.

    18. SG

      ... and then it effectively would be banned but here's the thing. China doesn't care. China, China has a private enterprise, they run their companies for control not for profits. I believe ByteDance is getting only about 20% of its revenue now from the US. They're not afraid, he keeps blinking, so if they can come to some sort of accommodation that again gives him a perceptual victory, but meanwhile Beijing gets, has their hands on the algorithm, then I can see it happening. I don't see Beijing at this point handing over TikTok to US interests.

    19. KS

      Yeah, why would they? I just don't see what, what, uh, unless they want something else maybe. Uh, I don't know. Why would it be worth it in any way? Besides, they're not gonna, it's, it, this, it, look, that, that app, they're, they're managing to ruin this app really in a lot of ways and eventually people won't use it just like they don't use anything else. But, um, certainly this idea, "I've done a deal," like he likes to s- why does he have to stick with that? It's so kind of gross and old man-y, like, "I do, I do deals, I'm a deal maker. The art of the deal." It's like stop, like we got it, like 'cause you don't really do good deals, you do some good deals, some d- you don't, but he has to always like flack it. Okay Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, the deadly flooding in Texas and questions raised about whether officials did enough to warn people. (instrumental music plays) Support for Pivot comes from IBM. Bigger isn't always better, especially with AI. Supersized models can drain your budget fast. Smaller ones are smart and can help cut AI costs up to 90%. Right-size your models at ibm.com. The AI built for business. IBM.

  5. 21:0731:36

    Texas Flooding Tragedy

    1. KS

      Scott, we're back. At least 80 people including 28 children are confirmed dead after a catastrophic flood swept through Central Texas, which is known as the flash flood, uh, corridor I think, over the weekend. Dozens are still missing including 10 girls from a summer camp. Rescue efforts are still ongoing as of this recording and the finger pointing has already begun obviously right away. Some local officials are blaming the National Weather Service claiming forecasts underestimated the severity of the rainfall but meteorologists told Wired that NWS accurately predicted the risk of flooding and sent warnings, it just was in the middle of the night and, and they have these systems that, that don't, they don't have sirens in this particular area, um, people ignore them, people ignore warnings, things like that. Uh, there's also the Doz factor, hundreds of jobs at NWS were cut earlier this year, some crucial positions at local offices are currently unfilled according to New York Times. That particular story was quite disturbing actually. And an NWS staffer told the Texas Tribune that the regional offices had adequate staffing and technology saying "This was us doing our jobs to the best of our abilities," which doesn't exactly make you feel confident. Um, past few days I'll also note, ag- as this is a flood prone area, it has happened in the past, back I think in the 1970s, they've considered warning systems and they did not implement them because of the cost, um, one, one local official said they were extravagant costs to put these sirens in particularly. Uh, again, texting is hard in this area, it has s- uh, lower, uh, cell phone, uh, coverage for example, people ignore it, um, this also happened at the worst possible time a- and Scott you put up a number of pictures of how quickly these floods go in during the day. This was in the middle of the night, um, or dar- in darkness and so it was unexpected, people were sleeping, worst possible time this could happen, um, and the stories are, are heartbreaking. Um, is there any chance the Trump administration re-evaluates some of those cuts? They're definitely stuck in this cycle of they're to blame for what's happened. Um, why don't you talk a little bit about this?

    2. SG

      When I s- when something like this happens I think a lot about one of the, one of those books that kind of changed our, (sighs) I don't know, gave me a, a, a seminal framework for how I evaluate decisions is, uh, Daniel Kahneman's work, specifically Thinking, Thinking Fast and Slow I think it's called and there's sort of, there's system one thinking right? In that you have to have system one thinking to respond. Something, an emergency happens, it, you fight or flight, you need to respond immediately, you need to make very quick decisions. Uh, the problem is, and what we pay our elected officials for is that we're supposed to have slow thinking, we're supposed to slow down and look at structural change and what are the things leading up to this crisis that potentially could have helped avoid it? And the system one thinking immediately takes over. Media defaults to drama, quick narrative formation, they love heroic rescues, um, uh, politicians use shortcuts, they immediately want to fill a narrative or backfill a narrative to, to show, you know Democrats want to say this is all about climate change, this is all about the cuts and then Republicans go really fucking crazy and claim it's s- evidence of some sort of deep state conspiracy to control the weather.

    3. KS

      I know.

    4. SG

      And then-

    5. KS

      Yeah. They love that one.

    6. SG

      ... the recent, you know, availability bias, recent dramatic floods get disproportionate attention compared to ongoing prevention needs, partisan re- reflexes activate, we've seen that.And the whole point of a government, and the whole point of being an adult is you're supposed to let your slow thinking take over and say, "All right." You know, the time pressure-

    7. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    8. SG

      ... prevents real analysis, and that is, these things demand immediate reactions, not careful evaluation. And the reality is, we don't know. I mean-

    9. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SG

      So, for example, with the-

    11. KS

      Correct.

    12. SG

      ... the two weather services that are charged with, uh, response and prevention and then communications, they are dramatically understaffed. They have been understaffed for a while, but we don't know. We don't have enough data yet to s- to, to say with any certainty whether that understaffing, or if they had been adequately staffed, if it would've resulted in a different outcome. And the problem is, is that these jobs are what I call invisible until there's a disaster. I always talk about jobs invisible until you fuck up. And that is the TSA, lifeguards, vaccine research, I mean, all of these jobs, the CDC, we don't know how many pandemics the CDC has stopped. Because the whole point of government is that you don't appreciate how boring their work is, because they prevent... We don't know how many terrorist cells have been busted up before they killed a bunch of people, because they did this boring hard work that requires investment and meticulous systemic infrastructure investment. And unfortunately, that doesn't make for good TV. It doesn't make for heroics. It doesn't make for speeches trying to demonstrate leadership and thoughts and prayers and people in FEMA jackets. So prevention gets no credit. Voters res- reward visible disaster response over invisible-

    13. KS

      People in boats.

    14. SG

      ... long-term infrastructure investments.

    15. KS

      Right. People in boats pulling people out of trees.

    16. SG

      Which creates p- which creates perverse political incentives. It's the same as you wanna watch a TV show a- called ER as opposed to-

    17. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    18. SG

      ... preventive medicine. That doesn't make for good daytime. That doesn't make for good evening drama.

    19. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    20. SG

      Must-see TV is never, like, preventive med- the vax, the family planning clinic. (laughs) I mean, it just-

    21. KS

      Yeah. (laughs)

    22. SG

      That doesn't make for good drama.

    23. KS

      Let's create a show. Another ba- another plane landed safely, in other words.

    24. SG

      So-

    25. KS

      That, that's not news.

    26. SG

      So what I, what I would encourage us-

    27. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    28. SG

      And what I try and do is say, when people say, "What do you think happened?" I go, "I've, I don't, I have no fucking idea. I know it rained a lot and a lot of good people, uh, have incurred a tragedy." Would a more thoughtful response to flood control and weather services investment have prevented this? We don't know yet. Is it clear, is it clear that we have more catastrophic weather events that are more extreme and more frequent? Yes. But was this a function of that? We don't know.

    29. KS

      Right, right.

    30. SG

      And, and so the question is, well, let's, let's lean on good people and scientists who are pursuing the truth. Let's slow our thinking down, and then let's make the requisite investments in infrastructure and personnel that are really fucking boring-

  6. 31:3644:31

    “Big Beautiful Bill” Winners and Losers

    1. KS

      Trump passed his big, beautiful bill. It's now law. The president signed the bill on his self-imposed deadline, the 4th of July, calling it, quote, "The single most popular bill ever signed," despite most polls saying otherwise. The final bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts, uh, which were supposed to go, uh, to end at the end of this year, slashes Medicaid significantly, boosts immigration enforcement by a lot, and adds over three trillion dollars to the deficit. Some of the big winners from this bill include wealthy Americans, corporations, and defense contractors, also prison people, um, prison owners. Um, some of the losers, low-income Americans, healthcare workers, clean energy companies drastically, and Elon Musk after the bill scrag- uh, scrapped EV subsidies. Also for anybody working in the EV industry, but you get a $7,500 annual, um, subsidy, uh, that is going away, um, whi- which is a very good time to buy an EV now if you want to, by the way, um, before those go away. Uh, talk about what this bill means, uh, for the country. I mean, what do you see... You've talked about this a lot, but, eh, now that it's passed, what do you see is some of the stuff dropped out, including selling public lands and some other stuff. Um, but some of the stuff absolutely stayed in there. Um, so talk a little bit about your thoughts about where it's going.

    2. SG

      I've thought a lot about this bill. I think it cements the notion, an unfortunate motion or notion that America has officially decided that it's comfortable with the bottom 90% of America being nutrition for the top 10%. That this isn't just weaponization by the government of rich people. It's Americans deciding that, uh, I'm comfortable with the transfer of wealth from the future to the past, from the poor to the rich, from the young to the old, because I think maybe someday I'll be there. And also some of these images of how cruel and harsh it is get conflated with masculinity and leadership, and I don't think you can just blame Republicans and Trump. I think America has decided in some ways that it's now The Hunger Games, and I just think it's more than... I think it, I think it represents something deeper and more mendacious and ugly about America right now that there's... Because there really hasn't been a lot of pushback. I think most people acknowledge that this is gonna be good for rich people, and it's gonna be bad for poor people. 14 million plus are gonna lose their healthcare, and these are some of the most, you know, vulnerable people in the world, disabled kids, disabled seniors, uh, and then I'm gonna get a tax cut, and-

    3. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    4. SG

      ... uh, that-

    5. KS

      A big one.

    6. SG

      At the end of the day, that's what this is. It's, it's taking about, you know, it's taking $800 billion out of, uh, Medicaid, and it's dramatically reducing taxation, such that, and, uh, adding to the deficit. So it's an enormous tax on future generations. It's, uh, a huge erosion in the social safety net for poor people, such that the most productive, if you will, that's the mo- nicest thing you could say, the most blessed, the most fortunate, the richest among us continue to, um, aggregate more wealth. And I'm... You know, if you give me a minute here, uh, I'm on vacation, and I think a lot about, you know, when I'm, when I have time to kinda slow down. When you're young, you think about, you credit your grit and your character for your success. You think about the pillars that your blessings are built on, and you have a tendency to go, "Well, it's my grit and my hard work and my talent." And then as you get older, you realize a lot of your success isn't your fault. And I, I literally could go through (clears throat) , and I will, my, the pillars of my prosperity, and they're all under attack in this bill. When I was in fourth grade, when I was nine, I got... I didn't get free lunch, but I got assisted lunch. And the wonderful thing about assisted lunch in California was they didn't want kids to have stigma, so they used to send coupons to my house, and they were the same coupons the other kids used.

    7. KS

      Yeah.

    8. SG

      And I've talked about this. When I was 17, my mom became pregnant. If we'd lived in a conservative era in this era, we wouldn't have been a- able to access family planning. There's no way I coulda gone to college. When I got to college, I got Pell Grants. Now they're talking about doing away... A third of the kids who receive Pell Grants now will have a reduction, or they'll be done away with, so I couldn't have graduated from college. And that, let's be clear, that, that illuminated or detonated an upward spiral of incredible prosperity and tens of millions of dollars in taxes paid by yours truly and my companies from the generosity of California taxpayers and the visions of the University of California, the Regents. If I had... The comp- look at the companies I started. They were all based (laughs) on the internet. What if we'd hadn't had the capital to invest in things like DARPA because we had been making a trillion dollars a year in interest payments for our debt to prop up the rich? My first programmer that built my first website at Red Envelope, Jawwad Mohammed, an immigrant from Pakistan, uh, the chief merchant of Red Envelope company I started and took public, f- an immigrant from Vietnam, the woman who ran our CBG practice at, uh, L2, a Canadian immigrant. Immigrants literally built my companies. All of these things, literally all of these things are under attack. And let me go very meta.You know, I wouldn't be here if America hadn't pushed back on fascism in the late 30s. My mother was a four-year-old Jew sleeping in bomb shelters in the London Tube. And we didn't, we didn't decide to commit, convert all our factories to producing tanks instead of washing machines and to, you know, have 400,000 homes have a gold star on the window because we were pushing back on antisemitism. We were pushing back on fascism, and what is fascism? The demonization of immigrants, a refusal to condemn violence against your opponents, and extreme nationalism. Does that sound familiar? So if we hadn't gagged on fascism in '39, I, you know, much less everything (laughs) I talked about previous to this, I might not be here.

    9. KS

      No, you wouldn't.

    10. SG

      So I feel as if every-

    11. KS

      You absolutely wouldn't.

    12. SG

      ... every reason I get to live the life I live and, you know, the prosperity, the taxes I paid, the kids, it, it, it, it really does feel like everything, all the ladders for many of us who are successful, the American experience, are being pulled up behind us. It's very upsetting.

    13. KS

      Well, the problem is, a lot of people like you don't think that. They think they did everything on their own, like, which is incredibly ... The fact that you think about it is incredibly thoughtful because, I mean, it's the truth, for one, which is why it's correct, but many people in your, in your group doesn't, don't think that. They think people are lazy. You want Medicaid, you gotta work, that kinda thing. When they get free ... Like, I, I grew up pretty rich, Scott, and I remember a bunch of kids talking about a bunch of the, some of the lesser good kids that I went to school with, like, "Oh, they're lazy." I'm like, "How the f- do you know where you would be if you didn't have all this support?" Like, very, "You're so dumb, you're, you would be at the, you would sink to the bottom of this particular ocean." And I used to think, my grandfather was an immigrant from Italy. Um, his father was a stone cutter, um, came over from Italy, and he built up a business without very much education, and we, I, uh, I was allowed to do things 'cause of his, uh, entrepreneurship and his father's entrepreneurship. And, um, you know, it just is, uh, many, many people who are getting these breaks do not realize they are on third base, and they feel like-

    14. SG

      Yeah.

    15. KS

      ... they've hit a home run.

    16. SG

      Yeah.

    17. KS

      And they treat hardworking people, um, I don't know why the dr- dime is just dropping for Joe Rogan. Oh, they're going after const- people that work really hard, construction sites, gardening, all these things that people come here to try to work their way up the American system, which has been very good for a lot of people. And you're a perfect example of that. Uh, to me, honestly, I, if I had to pick the most egregious thing, it is all the money going to ICE and jailing people. Like, that to me is terrifying. The anno- like, you, you talked about this, like a couple billion dollars to help a Pell Grant versus $40 billion to jail people. There is no economic upside except for a small group of people in jailing hardworking Americans. Even if they came here, figuring out a way to keep them here and working hard would be the better use of that money.

    18. SG

      Uh, i- i- it's, there, there are s- at the end of the day, the president is the ultimate capital allocator. And the amount of money-

    19. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    20. SG

      ... we are spending on harassing people at, at Home Depots and at churches and at schools, doesn't it tell you something?

    21. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    22. SG

      That this is where we're finding these people? And instead of taking that, what will, I think, be now 12 or 11 or $12 million a year, you know who's taking your job? The, the, the woman, you know, wiping grandma's ass and picking your crops and making sure that the restaurant bill isn't $30, it's 22, that's not who's taking your job. AI is gonna take your job. Do you know what we could do in terms of vocational training, upskilling people to be more critical thinkers and more skilled and able to handle the new technologies and the new threats of fut- We could be doing so much better with this money to ensure our wages stay high, to ensure there are good jobs for people, to ensure that we have a safety net, we have great education, we have great infrastructure. For God's sakes, we could take that money and build high speed- speed rail networks. We could build nuclear power plants to create an energy efficient or independent future that would create great jobs, and instead, we're funding what is effectively a modern-day Gestapo with WiFi. I mean-

    23. KS

      Yep.

    24. SG

      ... i- i- this is just-

    25. KS

      You know what I'd like the money to be d- like, why don't we take the money and give it to sirens along the flood corridor? Why not? Like, that's something useful. All those people who would've died, all that incredible economic devastation, prevention. Like, i- it's, it is, you know, your story is exactly correct, and I wish more people like you spoke like this, that in terms of ... I, I don't understand why they don't. Something happens when you get to be a certain wealth that you think you did it all yourself. Like, I, I, y- you hang out with those people more than I do, but I'm a- I've always been perplexed by their inability to understand how they got to where they got. Maybe they grew up rich and didn't know or something like that. I don't know. I don't know.

    26. SG

      Most of my friends are suitably freaked out, and one, one stat, 6,500 people in Q1 of this year applied for UK passports from the US who are wealthy, and that's a record. And I think there's a lot of people who recognize that, that again, a lot of their success isn't their fault. I mean, even going back to your parents or your grandfather who was an immigrant, how many immigrants, how many really talented and hungry people are gonna think, "You know what? If I'm gonna take a risk, am I gonna take a risk to go to America and face those risks, but in addition, I have to face the risk of having my phone taken away and maybe being rounded up?" I mean, right now, it's like, who, who wants to go to America right now?

    27. KS

      And the thing is, we're the best place for them to do that. It's not like Europe is full of innovation and entrepre- you know what I mean? Like, maybe it will be-

    28. SG

      I think it's gonna change.

    29. KS

      ... maybe it won't. Yeah, maybe it will be.

    30. SG

      I think, I think there's a decent chance, for the first time... I mean, I'm, I, I, my biggest investment in 2026 is this British aerospace company called Vertical, and in the last three months, we have seen a fairly serious uptick in investors interested in finding out more about the company because quite frankly, for the first time, they're no longer defaulting to just investing in American companies. That's gonna impact, that's just gonna make it much harder for American companies. We have taken for granted just how deep the capital pool is. I was a 27-year-old out of business school with a shaved head, which meant in s- in San Francisco, you could raise tens of millions of dollars for your startups. You can't do that in Poland. You can't even do that in Australia.

  7. 44:3146:51

    Trump’s Tariffs Return

    1. SG

      No, wait.

    2. KS

      Um, it would have been good earlier. Um, let me just move on very quickly. T- Trump still has more deal-making, supposedly, to do. The 90-day pause on the Liberation Day tariffs is coming to an end. He was supposed to do 90 deals in 90 days, have yet to materialize. Most of them are show pony deals. Um, the White House will be sending letters to countries, apparently detailing the new tariff rates, some as high as 70%. Uh, S- Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, the pissy one, shared a bit more on CNN over the weekend, saying if countries don't make a deal by August 1st, they'll boomerang back to their April l- level of tariffs. Besson insisted August 1st is not a new deadline, even though it is, Scott. Stop being s- he... I'm curious what he wants now with Elon out of the way. Anyway, uh, by the way, Scott, just because Elon's an asshole doesn't mean you're not. Um, so what do you, what, what do you think is gonna happen here?

    3. SG

      I think it's already happened. I think the majority of the world has said, "Hold my beer." There's 150 nations. The deal with Vietnam is real. That's one.

    4. KS

      Mm-hmm. Yeah.

    5. SG

      I think there's another small... Uh, and most of these things aren't even deals. They're frameworks to talk about it. The whole world has basically stuck up the middle finger to us and is busy re-establishing or re-routing their supply chain around us. These things have not worked. They're gonna look remarkably similar to the great tariff strategy of Gio Raimondo and other people and other, like, secretaries of commerce and trade who've actually done the work that we've had previously. All we will have done was, was massively incented South Korea and Japan to start talking to China, for Latin America to start talking to Europe, and for people no longer to trust doing business with the US. But this is all, uh, uh... I mean, not, almost nobody has come to the table, as far as I can tell.

    6. KS

      Mm-hmm. I agree. I mean, this is just ridiculous. He's still taco. He's still taco. Trump always chickens out. Um, it's just been a lot of, he's a lot of hand-waving, this fella. He's, it's ridiculous. In this case, he's just caused a lot of chaos and actually helped our, helped our competitors, constantly helped them. Anyway, we'll see. 90 days, you got a few more days, Trump.

    7. SG

      There you go.

    8. KS

      Uh, you got good luck. Good luck with your 90. My favorite thing is Carl Quintanilla from, uh, C, uh, CNBC is-

    9. SG

      He's a great follow on Twitter.

    10. KS

      ... he's getting very sassy. He's a great follow and on, also on, um-

    11. SG

      Yeah.

    12. KS

      ... all the other soc-

    13. SG

      Yeah, he's great.

    14. KS

      He's like-

    15. SG

      Love Carl.

    16. KS

      ... "Day 67, no deals." Like-

    17. SG

      Yeah.

    18. KS

      ... he's very sassy. I love him. Anyway, um, one more quick break.

  8. 46:511:03:12

    Wins and Fails

    1. KS

      We'll be back for Wins and Fails. Scott, uh, I see that you've put in mu- many notes here in your Wins and Fails. Scott, I'm gonna let you go first.

    2. SG

      UVA's been in the, in the press because the president... (sighs) First off, the whole idea of a deal is not what the president is supposed to do. (laughs) The president is supposed to hire really talented people and then create systemic laws and, and treaties that impact everyone individually. It, up until this president, you weren't supposed to target your political enemies or go after individual, promote or punish individuals or companies. That is the definition of an autocracy. And of course, he goes after the president of UVA for, because they had a disagreement over DEI. And for a long time, I have been saying the DEI apparatus of universities should be disassembled, that it had outlived its usefulness and was now eating its tail. Having said that, private universities, uh, or, or universities, public and private, continue to show just remarkable ROI, both on a societal, a cultural, and an economic level. And of course, the president targeted UVA, and the president, being a good man, said, "It's not worth, it's not, th- you know, this is not worth the fight. This is not the beach I wanna die on," and resigned. And I just wanted to highlight what a gift UVA is now, important institution it is.

    3. KS

      Right. And just to be clear, just to be cleared up, it's the president of UVA, not the president of the United States.

    4. SG

      Oh, I'm sorry. The president of UVA-

    5. KS

      It-

    6. SG

      ... was, who got in- uh, basically, the president, President Trump targeted this guy because he didn't like his DEI efforts. And the president of UVA has, uh, decided to kind of jump on his sword and step down 'cause he's like, "I don't want the university to feel the wrath of the president who is willing to target individual institutions."... you know, because he has basically, uh, you know, a, a, a beef against me. He did, he did the honorable thing. A lot of people wanted him to stay and fight, but he said, "It's not worth it. I care more about the university than my personal reputation or ego." He did, in my opinion, kind of the heroic thing here. But my win is essentially, a l- when I was right out of graduate school, I started Profit, and we immediately noticed that we had really good luck with these incredibly hardworking people who were also very nice and kind of easygoing. And what did they have in common? They went to UVA. And so (laughs) we started recruiting from Darden and UVA undergrad. And generally, we found kids who went to UVA were essentially, like, the smartest kid in their public high school in the Northeast or in Virginia. And this is an unbelievable institution, and one of the things I love about this institution, I think it set the tone for its success, is that when Jefferson founded University of Virginia, which by the way is on his tombstone. That was the thing he was most proud of. He decided it was the first major academic institution that didn't have a chapel. He wanted it to be the pursuit of enlightenment, of intellectual enlightenment, as opposed to an orthodoxy or a religion. Uh, it's a UNESCO World Heritage Site, with debt-free graduation for low-income students, providing elite education, uh, that can serve as economic mobility, not just privilege. It has this really fantastic, um, construct or ... And, and these, these people I used to work with used to reference it all the time, and that is their honor code and the legacy of their honor code. They have this student-run honor system since 1842 that creates graduates known for integrity across professions, institutionalizing the character democracy requires. They have produced multiple Supreme Court justices, national leaders across party lines, and not only that, a lot of leaders across both parties. And then, uh, uh, uh, unbelievable excellence, consistently rated as one of the three top public universities in the nation at a reasonable cost. And so ... And UVA really does represent America at its best. Jefferson's belief that democracy depends on educated citi- uh, citizens, accessible excellence, honor and integrity, and merit-based opportunity, rather than inin- inherited privilege. Anyways, this... I just thought it was an opportunity. My win is the great University of Virginia, UVA. I think it's an incredible institution that offers-

    7. KS

      It is. It's beautiful, too.

    8. SG

      Uh, it's, uh, the most bea- The three mo-

    9. KS

      I didn't get in. Kara Swisher didn't get in.

    10. SG

      Three most beautiful campuses in the nation are, one, Pepperdine, 'cause it overlooks-

    11. KS

      Yeah.

    12. SG

      ... the coastline Pacific.

    13. KS

      It is.

    14. SG

      Uh, Duke. Yeah, that's an incredible campus.

    15. KS

      Yeah.

    16. SG

      And UVA, that architecture and the law- I mean, that is-

    17. KS

      Stanford.

    18. SG

      It's extraordinary. Anyways-

    19. KS

      Yeah, I agree. Yeah.

    20. SG

      My win is, is this gift to America, the great institution that is U, uh, UVA.

    21. KS

      Wow. All right, should I do my win, or shall I wait for your fail?

    22. SG

      You do your win.

    23. KS

      Well, I was just gonna say, Old Guard 2. (laughs)

    24. SG

      (laughs)

    25. KS

      With Charlize Theron. (laughs) I don't even know what to say, I'm so ... UVA, the great embody American greatness.

    26. SG

      The Wahoos.

    27. KS

      Can I just say, Charlize Theron embodies lady greatness along with Uma Thurman. And I ... It's getting okay reviews. I ... Fuck you, people who don't like it. It's so good. Old Guard 1 was about this bunch of immortals, and Charlize Theron was the first one, total playing lesbian. I love Charlize Theron when she does the lesbian thing, which she's done before. So good, so good. The new one, she has a new really gay haircut, and it's so ... The whole cast is fantastic. It's kickass. Uh, Uma Thurman's great. Uh, it's, it's obviously gonna be ... There's gonna be a third, Old Guard 3, because of the way they leave it. Um, and I just loved it so much. And there's a whole, the whole lesbians who don't kiss in it that are r- is really good. I know they should've kissed, but I don't care 'cause it was so ... It doesn't matter. It was so lesbian-coded. Um, so I loved the whole thing. Lesbians with swords and, and spears and et cetera. I liked the entire endeavor. And women do dominate this particular ... It's on Netflix, and I love it so very much. And, uh, I just do. It's done by Skydance. I don't always agree with the Ellisons, but thank you, David Ellison, for this one. Um, and, uh, you can go with your l- loss. I haven't got another one.

    28. SG

      I think you should do your fail (laughs) . I think-

    29. KS

      My fail? Okay. (laughs)

    30. SG

      This is too much sea change.

Episode duration: 1:03:12

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